Dutchy wrote:

How come people are so confident that the 797 (MoM) will be launched? Are there any signs towards this? How does this compare to other launches?

People are just flipping coins, there's nothing out there that indicates MOM will be launched at the Paris air show.

Launch of the 737 MAX 10 seems the most logical option as Boeing already shared several design details and is in fact testing the new landing gear.

the Paris Air Show also means the 2017 Skytrax World Airline Awards will be happening, on the 20th June... any predictions? the top 10 airlines from 2016 where:
1. Emirates
2. Qatar Airways
3. Singapore Airlines
4. Cathay Pacific
5. All Nippon Airways
6. Etihad Airways
7. Turkish Airlines
8. EVA Air
9. Qantas
10. Lufthansa

Anyone care to guess who the 2017 Top 10 Airlines will be???

intotheair wrote:

My prediction: every major airline around will order the MOM. No exceptions. Legacies, gulf carriers, LCCs, and ULCCs will all order the plane in bulk.

Do you mean the Boeing MoM or the Airbus MoM (A321)? The last one would be incorrect, because they already ordered it.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/farnborough-airbus-has-boeings-mom-market-with-a-427527/

¿BA-IB B77X order?.....

Who is in the market for more 180 seat jets? United, American, Delta, Air France, British Airways, KLM? Those are the type of airlines to make an announcement in Paris Air Show. We could see some 737-9 conversions from airlines like Westjet, Air Canada, Copa, Aeromexico etc. I also expect some leasing company conversions and even some Chinese carriers.

737-10 conversions may be the talk of the show. Could we see the plane launched with 250 or so commitments?

[twoid][/twoid]

keesje wrote:

intotheair wrote:

My prediction: every major airline around will order the MOM. No exceptions. Legacies, gulf carriers, LCCs, and ULCCs will all order the plane in bulk.

Do you mean the Boeing MoM or the Airbus MoM (A321)? The last one would be incorrect, because they already ordered it.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/farnborough-airbus-has-boeings-mom-market-with-a-427527/

I meant the Boeing MoM and was being facetious

Boeing
- Contract Aseman 30 737MAX signing ? MOU in April
- SaudiGulf Airlines 16 777s (100bn deal)

Airbus
- BA 7 A380 option conversions?
- SQ A350-1000 order conversions
- AF MOU for 50+50 A320 NEO's?
- Tianjin Airlines 7 A330's?

ZK-NBT wrote:

zkncj wrote:

NZ order additional ATR 72-600s to replace the 23x Q300s in there fleet, taking the ATR 72-600 fleet up to 53.

That's bold given the Q300 average age is only 10.5 defenatly baseless.

Maybe a couple more 789's? If anything but NZ don't seem to announce at air shows.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

Page 60 - 23 Q300s to leave the fleet by 2020?

Newbiepilot wrote:

Who is in the market for more 180 seat jets? United, American, Delta, Air France, British Airways, KLM?

I don't think KL is in the market, their 737's have a lot of life left in them. They have just added a few second hand specimen coming from Transavia-NL.

76er wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

Who is in the market for more 180 seat jets? United, American, Delta, Air France, British Airways, KLM?

I don't think KL is in the market, their 737's have a lot of life left in them. They have just added a few second hand specimen coming from Transavia-NL.

Agree. Remarkably KLM could very well use A321NEO's in their network. The few 739s are capacity restricted (<180seats ). Many destinations / opportunities in the network that could use its specific capacity range. West Africa, Middle East, US East Coast are important sizable markets, as well as the high frequency city pairs close by. They were flown by A310s, 767s and 757s(NWA) in the past. Looking at KLM's direct "colleagues" in Western Europe it's hard to find one that doesn't use A321s..

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=&R=2500NM%40AMS,+4000NM%40AMS&MS=wls2&MR=1800&MX=720x360&PM=*

keesje wrote:

76er wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

Who is in the market for more 180 seat jets? United, American, Delta, Air France, British Airways, KLM?

I don't think KL is in the market, their 737's have a lot of life left in them. They have just added a few second hand specimen coming from Transavia-NL.

Agree. Remarkably KLM could very well use A321NEO's in their network. The few 739s are capacity restricted (<180seats ). Many destinations / opportunities in the network that could use its specific capacity range. West Africa, Middle East, US East Coast are important sizable markets, as well as the high frequency city pairs close by. They were flown by A310s, 767s and 757s(NWA) in the past. Looking at KLM's direct "colleagues" in Western Europe it's hard to find one that doesn't use A321s..

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=&R=2500NM%40AMS,+4000NM%40AMS&MS=wls2&MR=1800&MX=720x360&PM=*

KLM CEO Pieter Elbers has stated KLM is not currently interested in a MoM aircraft: https://drimble.nl/overige/reizen/43618864/klm-kijkt-voorlopig-nog-niet-naar-mom-vliegtuigen.html (Dutch)

And if KLM would switch from the 737 to the A320 family the A321 would be used for the busy intra European routes, just like most other European carriers use their A321s. It's possible that it could happen, but the chance that they will stick with the 737 is IMO larger then the chance that they will go neo.



anyway:

Another possible airshow order for Boeing:

Unidentified Customer(s) for 61 737 MAX.

Maybe KLM will be a launch customer for the 737-10

pabloeing wrote:

¿EK B787-10 ORDER?

Probably announce it at the Dubai Airshow(post 2019). Plus the new Dubai airport isn't ready so they B787-10 wont be ordered until at least until 2020. EK have the space or slots to park these aircraft.

zkojq wrote:

Confirmation that LH will reduce 777x order.

Qantas confirming that mainline will indeed operate A321neos. Possible conversion of A380 orders to A350-900ULR or A350-1000.

aerorobnz wrote:

Air New Zealand A350-900/-1000s to replace the 777-200/-300

Looking forward to this!

FriscoHeavy wrote:

Not going to happen.

Lol

Qantas isn't likely to operate the A350 or A321neo at this point.

777-8s to replace the 747-400ER and 777-9 in the years ahead to replace the A380s.

Air New Zealand themselves could order addition 787-9s to replace their 777-200ERs, but the 777-300ERs aren't going anywhere, so no A350 for them either I'm afraid.

Pure speculation, but could SAS be in the market for more A320neos? They've got an aging fleet of 737NG, and all recent orders have been for Airbus. I believe they only have 7 more A320neos left on the order book, but large parts of their 737NG and A320 fleets are from the early 2000s. An order now would be delivered when these aircraft reach about 20 years.

(I know they ordered 30 A320neos, but I can find only 7 more left on the order books. Don't know how many have been delivered?)

JetBuddy wrote:

Pure speculation, but could SAS be in the market for more A320neos? They've got an aging fleet of 737NG, and all recent orders have been for Airbus. I believe they only have 7 more A320neos left on the order book, but large parts of their 737NG and A320 fleets are from the early 2000s. An order now would be delivered when these aircraft reach about 20 years.

(I know they ordered 30 A320neos, but I can find only 7 more left on the order books. Don't know how many have been delivered?)

7 delivered so far, 23 more left to build.

keesje wrote:

76er wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

Who is in the market for more 180 seat jets? United, American, Delta, Air France, British Airways, KLM?

I don't think KL is in the market, their 737's have a lot of life left in them. They have just added a few second hand specimen coming from Transavia-NL.

Agree. Remarkably KLM could very well use A321NEO's in their network. The few 739s are capacity restricted (<180seats ). Many destinations / opportunities in the network that could use its specific capacity range. West Africa, Middle East, US East Coast are important sizable markets, as well as the high frequency city pairs close by. They were flown by A310s, 767s and 757s(NWA) in the past. Looking at KLM's direct "colleagues" in Western Europe it's hard to find one that doesn't use A321s..

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=&R=2500NM%40AMS,+4000NM%40AMS&MS=wls2&MR=1800&MX=720x360&PM=*

The 737-900 is limited to 178 seats because of how the plane is configured. It has 192 seats, but the middle seat in the business class is empty. IF KLM wants more higher capacity short haul planes they would have ordered more 739's by now, but then again.. I don't think either KLM nor Schiphol expected the passenger numbers to increase so much in just 6 a 7 years. I do think that KLM could use more short planes, but they would order more 737's before they would look at the A320. The 737's also have a lot of life left in them with most of them being 10 years or younger so we won't see them ordering a replacement soon.

Boeing778X wrote:

zkojq wrote:

Confirmation that LH will reduce 777x order.

Qantas confirming that mainline will indeed operate A321neos. Possible conversion of A380 orders to A350-900ULR or A350-1000.

aerorobnz wrote:

Air New Zealand A350-900/-1000s to replace the 777-200/-300

Looking forward to this!

FriscoHeavy wrote:

Not going to happen.

Lol

Qantas isn't likely to operate the A350 or A321neo at this point.

777-8s to replace the 747-400ER and 777-9 in the years ahead to replace the A380s.

Air New Zealand themselves could order addition 787-9s to replace their 777-200ERs, but the 777-300ERs aren't going anywhere, so no A350 for them either I'm afraid.

Two of them might be coming off lease by 2020 according to the latest investor documents released. 4 200s gone by 2020, and no replacements ordered yet.

Bostrom wrote:

JetBuddy wrote:

Pure speculation, but could SAS be in the market for more A320neos? They've got an aging fleet of 737NG, and all recent orders have been for Airbus. I believe they only have 7 more A320neos left on the order book, but large parts of their 737NG and A320 fleets are from the early 2000s. An order now would be delivered when these aircraft reach about 20 years.

(I know they ordered 30 A320neos, but I can find only 7 more left on the order books. Don't know how many have been delivered?)

7 delivered so far, 23 more left to build.

They have been making some noises about the A321NEO. I suppose an order for some 321s, and/or conversion of some of the existing A320NEO orders to A321NEOs is possible.

Momo1435 wrote:

And if KLM would switch from the 737 to the A320 family the A321 would be used for the busy intra European routes, just like most other European carriers use their A321s. It's possible that it could happen, but the chance that they will stick with the 737 is IMO larger then the chance that they will go neo.

The A321NEO also makes tremendous sense for longer flights to north/west Africa, the ME and central asia, not just for KLM but also for Air France. I doubt it will be at this airshow, but I think it is only a matter of time before we see an A321 in KLM colours.

PHBVF wrote:

KLM CEO Pieter Elbers has stated KLM is not currently interested in a MoM aircraft

What exactly does he mean by MoM though? The MoM term is rarely used about the A321.

rotating14 wrote:

Give the hyperbole and sensationalism a break. If the A320/1 NEO was what UA wanted, they would have bought it already. With your logic, anyone flying the 737-900/ER/9 is not that smart and and doing for the hell of it. Boeing is not struggling to keep UA from buying anything, they bought the A350-1000 and other models from Embraer.

We can play the speculative game with the "might be" and "probably is" but if you're not backing up what you are saying without facts or substantial evidence, just keep it to yourself. It dilutes your credibility when you are aren't objective and slightly biased to other brands and products. The end.

Tsk, tsk. You forgot price. Boeing has to discount heavily to sell to offset their inferior product.

Airbus has clearly been saving orders. My big speculation is that JL announces his retirement, and goes out with a bang.

VSMUT wrote:

What exactly does he mean by MoM though? The MoM term is rarely used about the A321.

Well no not the MoM, but the post I was responding to talked about US East Coast, Middle East and West Africa. I don't know of any (legacy) carriers flying TATL with the A321.
It seems to be better suited for trunk routes. As for what someone else said before, I would not be to surprised if KLM ordered the 737-10.
Performance should not be an issue, given that their current longest 737 flight is AMS-TLV (1790nm). So I think any, if not all runway/payload/range concern are covered.
The -10 would offer a slight bump over the -900 in seats and possibly allow for a little expansion on the bigger routes.

On a different note: 17 of KLM's 50 737s are -700s. With the MAX 7 not seeming too successful, I would not put my money on those...
How about KLM as an E195E2 customer? Seatwise it'd be a great replacement for the -700, however I have no idea whether its performance matches....
Anyhow a combination of E195E2 for a part of the -700 fleet and MAX 8 for the rest, would (in my opinion) not be a bad fit for KLM...

Cheers

KLM's (5!) 737-900 unlike 900ER can only carry 180 people. Many airlines operate A321s next to their 737NG's. A321s will soon be doing TATL. Norwegian, AirLingus, WoW, Azores, TAP others are making up their minds SAS, Jetblue, AA, DL.

PHBVF wrote:

Well no not the MoM, but the post I was responding to talked about US East Coast, Middle East and West Africa. I don't know of any (legacy) carriers flying TATL with the A321.

I agree, the entire TATL with narrowbody thing is greatly exaggerated anyway. There is a fleet of between 20 and 40 757s plying those routes, but A-net will have you believe that it is closer to 2000 to 4000. 99% of all those A321NEOs and 737-9s ordered will just fly short-haul "trunk" routes.

PHBVF wrote:

Performance should not be an issue, given that their current longest 737 flight is AMS-TLV (1790nm). So I think any, if not all runway/payload/range concern are covered.

But the A321 should carry a great deal more cargo, and the AF/KLM family is already fairly familiar with it. No development risks associated either, and it will most definitely retain its value over time much better too.

PHBVF wrote:

On a different note: 17 of KLM's 50 737s are -700s. With the MAX 7 not seeming too successful, I would not put my money on those...
How about KLM as an E195E2 customer? Seatwise it'd be a great replacement for the -700, however I have no idea whether its performance matches....
Anyhow a combination of E195E2 for a part of the -700 fleet and MAX 8 for the rest, would (in my opinion) not be a bad fit for KLM...

I don't think we will see KLM order the E2 anytime soon. The current E-jet fleet is relatively young, and with AMS facing growth restrictions I doubt we will see any downsizing. I think the -700s would be replaced either by 737-800 or MAX8s, or A320s. For those routes where they can't consistently fill the bigger replacement you will see a mix of 738/A320 and existing E-jets.

I do think that the E2 stands good chances in the future, just not in the next 5-10 years.

rotating14 wrote:

Give the hyperbole and sensationalism a break. If the A320/1 NEO was what UA wanted, they would have bought it already.

keesje has been claiming weekly since the day UA signed the 737-9 purchase agreement that they would cancel it for the A321-200neo. Five years on...

The 321neo is a bit crippled to be a true MOM, perhaps more that a bit. It is still a fine aircraft.

EK006 wrote:

pabloeing wrote:

¿EK B787-10 ORDER?

Probably announce it at the Dubai Airshow(post 2019). Plus the new Dubai airport isn't ready so they B787-10 wont be ordered until at least until 2020. EK have the space or slots to park these aircraft.

Sir Tim Clark and Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed both stated that a new order will be announced during Dubai Airshow '17, for both, wide body jets and a possible order for narrowbody jets

I believe the P&W CEO said that he felt (and he should know if anyone) that the MOM/797 was slated for a 2019 official launch.So (like others) I expect Boeing to make plenty of noise about the 737MAX 10 launch.
Whether Airbus say anything about their 'plus and plus plus' developments who knows.They can afford to wait.
But as above.EK.We know they are going to announce 'something'.So it's got to be 797 or A350's or both (unlikely).One can't help feeling that they must reduce their A388 order sometime if not now then sometime soon due to long lead times.Its not an issue for Rolls as they are on both the aircraft under consideration.But the Airbus bit is somewhat tricky perhaps.

An wide body announcement from Emirates can mean anything. We can see the A380neo or A350 or 787. I do not expect more 777, as there are enough on order as it is. But the most unlikely idea is Emirates taking a lead on ordering the 797 aka MOM.

MOM and possibly some news about the A380Neo. The A350 is in production, the A330neo at the starting gate, and the Neo 320 series are pretty much finished off.

That means there are engineers and resources that could be utilised on other projects. Perhaps we'll see an A322 as a final stretch of the 320 series also.

Would love to see Boeing bring the MOM to launch, perhaps with the likes of Icelandair converting their Max order, United and Delta throwing in an order to replace some of their 757/767s and maybe some charter airlines taking a bite too.

Hey guys,
IF the MoM is launched I reckon it will be at the Dubai air show with Emirates and/or Qatar ordering it. The Emiratis like to make a big splash and the launch of an entirely new model of plane would certainly make a huge splash and bathe the air show in publicity. Etihad may order it but they have greater issues to deal with than ordering new planes. I just can't see MoM being launched at Paris '17 ... and in fact I don't think it will be launched for at least another year.
The CSeries I think will get some attention but I don't know who from ... but sadly no CS500 just yet. I have a sneaking feeling that the Chinese will invest heavily in Bombardier which may present them with the financial backing to launch the CS500, but not just yet.
The MAX10? The A350-stretch stretch? The A322? Perhaps, just perhaps, the first two will be launched or at least firmer proposals presented, but I don't believe that any of these three are likely to be launched at Pars'17.
Orders? Certainly nothing ;'big' from the ME3 or Turkish Airlines, except maybe the odd small top up order for 777Fs or something just to 'wave the flag'. Perhaps Iran will replace India as the source for a raft of largish air show orders? Overall however I believe that orders this year will be very low compared to previous years.
My crazy prediction? An order for 747-8s ...please please please!!!
Cheers,
Bunumuring

Newbiepilot wrote:

Who is in the market for more 180 seat jets? United, American, Delta, Air France, British Airways, KLM? Those are the type of airlines to make an announcement in Paris Air Show. We could see some 737-9 conversions from airlines like Westjet, Air Canada, Copa, Aeromexico etc. I also expect some leasing company conversions and even some Chinese carriers.

737-10 conversions may be the talk of the show. Could we see the plane launched with 250 or so commitments?

9W is rumoured to be ordering about 100 B737Max, and UK 50 A320Neo.

My Predictions:
Airbus confirms/denies A380 NEO, depending on what talks they have had with EK

Boeing launches 737-10
Boeing launches a 777-10x that replaces the A380

ME3 doesn't really order much
A320NEO, 737Max and A321LR all have good days
In general, pretty quiet-no major orders.

Wildcard: Indigo changes some of its 400 A320neo orders to A350 orders and tries to build a long haul fleet.

bunumuring wrote:

Hey guys,
IF the MoM is launched I reckon it will be at the Dubai air show with Emirates and/or Qatar ordering it.

If I was an OEM, I wouldn't allow A AB be within 7,000 nm of being a launch customer.

JeremyB wrote:

I don't think KL is in the market, their 737's have a lot of life left in them. They have just added a few second hand specimen coming from Transavia-NL.

And the Dutch king isn't going for a 737 type rating for nothing......

JeremyB wrote:

Agree. Remarkably KLM could very well use A321NEO's in their network. The few 739s are capacity restricted (<180seats ). Many destinations / opportunities in the network that could use its specific capacity range. West Africa, Middle East, US East Coast are important sizable markets

Yet not if you want to carry cargo as well. I don't see a role for the A321LR in KL's fleet. Maybe Boost, but not KLM

BTW only had very few 757 flights to AMS.

JeremyB wrote:

IF KLM wants more higher capacity short haul planes they would have ordered more 739's by now

KLM wouldn't hesitate to call any lease company (and the leasing companies won't hesittate call AF/KL). As such you don't have to write much in AF/KL not ordering anything yet.

Btblue wrote:

possibly some news about the A380Neo.

I very much doubt it. Airbus already stated several times that they will not launch the NEO before.... what was it? 2025? ... and only in case they find a business case.

Some "news" aka additional orders for the CEO is what the programme urgently needs.

VSMUT wrote:

PHBVF wrote:

Well no not the MoM, but the post I was responding to talked about US East Coast, Middle East and West Africa. I don't know of any (legacy) carriers flying TATL with the A321.

I agree, the entire TATL with narrowbody thing is greatly exaggerated anyway. There is a fleet of between 20 and 40 757s plying those routes, but A-net will have you believe that it is closer to 2000 to 4000. 99% of all those A321NEOs and 737-9s ordered will just fly short-haul "trunk" routes.

Well, while correct, there is also a propensity for routes to downgauge when smaller aircraft come onto the market that are more capable than previous iterations. For example (and correct me where I'm wrong) routes that may have been A300/A310 in the past that are now flyable with current generation narrowbodies. In the US we have seen a complete fragmentation of the mainland-Hawaii market as carriers go 747/DC-10 --> 757/767 --> 737/A32X.

I don't see the TATL market going all-narrowbody by any stretch, but I think that more capable narrowbodies will indeed see an increased presence and we will continue to see more splintering of the market. Whether that is a few hundred narrowbodies devoted to these routes or some other number remains to be seen. I can't help but think it will be a multiple of the existing 757 usage though.

Bostrom wrote:

7 delivered so far, 23 more left to build.

That makes more sense! Thanks.

VSMUT wrote:

They have been making some noises about the A321NEO. I suppose an order for some 321s, and/or conversion of some of the existing A320NEO orders to A321NEOs is possible.

Yes, SAS have talked about the A321LR for a while too. Would be great with a mixed order of A321neo and A321LR, maybe some A320neos as well for 737NG replacements. The 23 left in the order books aren't enough for replacements or expansions. As far as I know, ARN will be all Airbus in the future, like CPH is now.

LJ wrote:

JeremyB wrote:

I don't think KL is in the market, their 737's have a lot of life left in them. They have just added a few second hand specimen coming from Transavia-NL.

And the Dutch king isn't going for a 737 type rating for nothing......

JeremyB wrote:

Agree. Remarkably KLM could very well use A321NEO's in their network. The few 739s are capacity restricted (<180seats ). Many destinations / opportunities in the network that could use its specific capacity range. West Africa, Middle East, US East Coast are important sizable markets

Yet not if you want to carry cargo as well. I don't see a role for the A321LR in KL's fleet. Maybe Boost, but not KLM

BTW only had very few 757 flights to AMS.

JeremyB wrote:

IF KLM wants more higher capacity short haul planes they would have ordered more 739's by now

KLM wouldn't hesitate to call any lease company (and the leasing companies won't hesittate call AF/KL). As such you don't have to write much in AF/KL not ordering anything yet.

I'm sorry LJ, but I didn't write that bit.. that was Keesje.

I agree with the last part, KLM is still growing and opening a lot of routes. KLM or Transavia might order some more 737's before an order for the NEO/MAX will be placed by the AF/KL Group.

JeremyB wrote:

I agree with the last part, KLM is still growing and opening a lot of routes. KLM or Transavia might order some more 737's before an order for the NEO/MAX will be placed by the AF/KL Group.

I don't see why they can't be flown side by side...
KLM has operated the 737NG since 1999 and the 737CL left the fleet in 2011. No reason why this couldn't happen for the NG/MAX.

Also as I said before the MAX10 would be great for trunk routes, such as LHR, CDG, BCN and all regular -900 routes they serve.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

PHBVF wrote:

Well no not the MoM, but the post I was responding to talked about US East Coast, Middle East and West Africa. I don't know of any (legacy) carriers flying TATL with the A321.

I agree, the entire TATL with narrowbody thing is greatly exaggerated anyway. There is a fleet of between 20 and 40 757s plying those routes, but A-net will have you believe that it is closer to 2000 to 4000. 99% of all those A321NEOs and 737-9s ordered will just fly short-haul "trunk" routes.

Well, while correct, there is also a propensity for routes to downgauge when smaller aircraft come onto the market that are more capable than previous iterations. For example (and correct me where I'm wrong) routes that may have been A300/A310 in the past that are now flyable with current generation narrowbodies. In the US we have seen a complete fragmentation of the mainland-Hawaii market as carriers go 747/DC-10 --> 757/767 --> 737/A32X.

I don't see the TATL market going all-narrowbody by any stretch, but I think that more capable narrowbodies will indeed see an increased presence and we will continue to see more splintering of the market. Whether that is a few hundred narrowbodies devoted to these routes or some other number remains to be seen. I can't help but think it will be a multiple of the existing 757 usage though.

But the 757 has been around for ages, and has offered just that. Nobody bit on over the 23 production run of that plane, despite being around when fuel costs favoured it even more. Why would that have changed all of a sudden? The only reason why 757s are flying TATL today, is because the US3 suddenly found themselves with a big fleet of planes that were fully depreciated and no longer suited for the domestic US market with the introduction of the A320 and 737NG families.

bunumuring wrote:

IF the MoM is launched I reckon it will be at the Dubai air show with Emirates and/or Qatar ordering it.

Why Emirates? Flydubai seems a more logical choice to me. As for Qatar, they're already well-invested in the A320 family unless the A321-200neoLR lacks the payload-range they want for long-haul.

I'm calling it:
A 100+ Order for c-series from an european/British carrier.

VSMUT wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

I agree, the entire TATL with narrowbody thing is greatly exaggerated anyway. There is a fleet of between 20 and 40 757s plying those routes, but A-net will have you believe that it is closer to 2000 to 4000. 99% of all those A321NEOs and 737-9s ordered will just fly short-haul "trunk" routes.

Well, while correct, there is also a propensity for routes to downgauge when smaller aircraft come onto the market that are more capable than previous iterations. For example (and correct me where I'm wrong) routes that may have been A300/A310 in the past that are now flyable with current generation narrowbodies. In the US we have seen a complete fragmentation of the mainland-Hawaii market as carriers go 747/DC-10 --> 757/767 --> 737/A32X.

I don't see the TATL market going all-narrowbody by any stretch, but I think that more capable narrowbodies will indeed see an increased presence and we will continue to see more splintering of the market. Whether that is a few hundred narrowbodies devoted to these routes or some other number remains to be seen. I can't help but think it will be a multiple of the existing 757 usage though.

But the 757 has been around for ages, and has offered just that. Nobody bit on over the 23 production run of that plane, despite being around when fuel costs favoured it even more. Why would that have changed all of a sudden? The only reason why 757s are flying TATL today, is because the US3 suddenly found themselves with a big fleet of planes that were fully depreciated and no longer suited for the domestic US market with the introduction of the A320 and 737NG families.

I'm not so sure that the 757 is an ideal TATL aircraft. If a MoM (eek) can accommodate different layouts, more cargo, and better performance, it might be much more suitable to a broader TATL network outside of BOS/NYC-LON/PAR (for example). You certainly may be right - it might be that there is no real market for TATL fragmentation on smaller aircraft. I guess we'll see.

zkncj wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

zkncj wrote:

NZ order additional ATR 72-600s to replace the 23x Q300s in there fleet, taking the ATR 72-600 fleet up to 53.

That's bold given the Q300 average age is only 10.5 defenatly baseless.

Maybe a couple more 789's? If anything but NZ don't seem to announce at air shows.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

Page 60 - 23 Q300s to leave the fleet by 2020?

That's not quite what it is saying. In 2020, there will be 23 Q300s which are unencumbered (have no ongoing financial liabilities). This doesn't necessarily mean the aircraft are going to be retired then.

V/F

Oman Air to announce an A350 order:

https://twitter.com/economyworld781/sta ... 6710697984

Absolutely no facts:
No MoM, but a 737-10 max with some launch orders.
Singapore Airlines firming up or not the LOI for 20 777-9X.
Maybe Lufthansa and Airbus negociating for some more A350-900.

I can see Turkish ordering some 737-10

I'll throw in my 2 cents,

- SQ firms up its LOI for 20 777-9
- 737-10 won't be launched
- A350 order from China

keesje wrote:

KLM's (5!) 737-900 unlike 900ER can only carry 180 people. Many airlines operate A321s next to their 737NG's. A321s will soon be doing TATL. Norwegian, AirLingus, WoW, Azores, TAP others are making up their minds SAS, Jetblue, AA, DL.

It would be interesting if KLM became a 737-10 launch customer. Boeing needs to launch with orders outside the United States in my opinion to ensure success of the program.