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SteveXC500
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Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:33 pm

No discussion on the closure of any station! Let's keep this to either rumors which are being discussed OR guesses/speculation about the upcoming schedule extension.

I'm going to guess with this being a two-month extension of the schedule to March 7th and this publication being prior to the big spring break additions, we won't see much. But, does anyone have information on how many aircraft will be entering service? Will this possibly play into more routes being added, additional frequencies on existing routes, or new locations? More international? How about (gasp) Hawaii?

Ready, go!
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:48 pm

Southwest could expand from Atlanta to Sacramento, Omaha, and Nashville as these are some of the largest markets out of Atlanta that Southwest does not serve nonstop from Atlanta. I am not sure if the expansion into these three markets from ATL will happen on June 22nd, but these are destinations that Southwest could expand to from ATL.
 
jco613
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:51 pm

jplatts wrote:
Southwest could expand from Atlanta to Sacramento, Omaha, and Nashville as these are some of the largest markets out of Atlanta that Southwest does not serve nonstop from Atlanta. I am not sure if the expansion into these three markets from ATL will happen on June 22nd, but these are destinations that Southwest could expand to from ATL.

At best, I'd see that for next summer. Look for the typical seasonal changes for Florida, more expansion (domestic and international) from FLL, and the like. Not expecting anything Earth Shattering
 
czek6
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:57 pm

This schedule runs through March 2018. How many new MAX planes will Southwest put into service during this period?

I'm hopeful that Southwest may actually start expanding again. BWI has essentially been somewhat flat in terms of growth. Any new adds come at the expense of cuts elsewhere.
 
flymco753
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:59 pm

MCO-DTW/MSP and some of the other Saturday only flights will probably return on this extension.
Welcome to the city beautiful.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:17 pm

Southwest could add daily year-round nonstop service between CLE-MCO. CLE-MCO is the largest route not between legacy airline hub cities that does not have year-round nonstop service on Southwest.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:24 pm

Does WN have any LGA slots they're working on picking up? It was mentioned by an executive in a story about WN's 25th anniversary at CMH last week that they want to add CMH-LGA and the lack of slots is the only thing stopping them.

CRAA's wish list from WN from the same article includes SFO, MKE, and SAN.
Last edited by DeltaRules on Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SteveXC500
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:24 pm

flymco753 wrote:
MCO-DTW/MSP and some of the other Saturday only flights will probably return on this extension.


I doubt we see the seasonal routes like MCO-DTW/MSP in this one. Those will come in the extension after June's publication. I think in August. Spring Break will be March 8th through sometime in April.

However, FLL-MSP usually gets added, for example, in this one.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:25 pm

CLE-RSW is the largest market not between legacy airline hub cities that is without nonstop service on Southwest, but Frontier has nonstops between CLE and RSW and United and Spirit have seasonal nonstops between CLE and RSW.
 
flymco753
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:27 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
MCO-DTW/MSP and some of the other Saturday only flights will probably return on this extension.


I doubt we see the seasonal routes like MCO-DTW/MSP in this one. Those will come in the extension after June's publication. I think in August. Spring Break will be March 8th through sometime in April.

However, FLL-MSP usually gets added, for example, in this one.
MCO-DTW might go before, it generally runs from the first Saturday in January to the last Saturday in April.
Welcome to the city beautiful.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:52 pm

Two of the largest routes in the contiguous U.S. without nonstop service are SAN-ORF and SAN-RDU. Will Southwest end up adding nonstop service to ORF and RDU from SAN?
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:00 pm

Atlanta is the only destination out of Richmond that Southwest flies to year round, but Southwest could add possibly nonstop service to Chicago-Midway and Denver out of Richmond. There is possibly enough demand for Southwest to add DEN-RIC nonstop service since Southwest could provide connections to the Los Angeles area and the San Francisco Bay area, the two largest markets from Richmond not served nonstop from RIC, if Southwest adds nonstop service between DEN and RIC.
 
SFOATLFlyer
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:03 pm

jplatts wrote:
Southwest could expand from Atlanta to Sacramento, Omaha, and Nashville as these are some of the largest markets out of Atlanta that Southwest does not serve nonstop from Atlanta. I am not sure if the expansion into these three markets from ATL will happen on June 22nd, but these are destinations that Southwest could expand to from ATL.


Don't count on BNA-ATL. There aren't that many places BNA pax can connect to in Atlanta they don't already served from BNA, and the O&D usually drives.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:15 pm

SFOATLFlyer wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Southwest could expand from Atlanta to Sacramento, Omaha, and Nashville as these are some of the largest markets out of Atlanta that Southwest does not serve nonstop from Atlanta. I am not sure if the expansion into these three markets from ATL will happen on June 22nd, but these are destinations that Southwest could expand to from ATL.


Don't count on BNA-ATL. There aren't that many places BNA pax can connect to in Atlanta they don't already served from BNA, and the O&D usually drives.


There are four Southwest Airlines destinations on the East Coast (Greenville/Spartanburg, Richmond, Washington-Dulles, and West Palm Beach) plus two Southwest Airlines cities in the Midwest (Indianapolis and Milwaukee) that see nonstop service from Atlanta but not from Nashville, but Southwest will be adding nonstop service between Milwaukee and Nashville on November 5th. Southwest already does 9 flights a day between Nashville and the Washington, D.C. area with 6 of these flights to BWI and 3 of these flights to DCA and has the Nashville-DC market covered with its BWI and DCA nonstops. Southwest did previously serve GSP nonstop from BNA, but discontinued that route 3 years ago.

Is there even enough demand for Southwest to add nonstop service to RIC or PBI from BNA? Both of these destinations do not have any nonstop service out of BNA, and it is also difficult to get to RIC from BNA since ATL is the only city that has year-round nonstop service out of RIC on Southwest and since Southwest does not serve ATL nonstop from BNA.
 
SFOATLFlyer
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:21 pm

IIRC, a long time ago there was a PBI flight, likely seasonal but I can't remember. WN tried BNA-GSP, it didn't stay long either. RIC? I don't see it. While not the same, the ORF nonstop lasted maybe a year. It seems like everytime WN adds at BNA, they also subtract - sometimes frequently, sometimes dropped cities. It's my understanding they have 2 additional gates, but I haven't been down into the C20's for some time.
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:40 pm

I expect to see large CVG expansion.
LAS is Life
 
flydulles
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:48 pm

if there gonna dip there toe into Hawaii would that be in this schedule release?
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:57 pm

I expect to see Southwest adding nonstop service out of Houston Hobby to additional destinations in the Midwest and in Northern California that are not currently served nonstop from HOU. I also expect Southwest to add new international destinations, including nonstop service to new international destinations out of HOU.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:59 pm

jplatts wrote:
I expect to see Southwest adding nonstop service out of Houston Hobby to additional destinations in the Midwest and in Northern California that are not currently served nonstop from HOU. I also expect Southwest to add new international destinations, including nonstop service to new international destinations out of HOU.


It seems like it should happen sooner, rather than later.
 
jbmitt
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:17 pm

aviationjunky wrote:
I expect to see large CVG expansion.


2x STL, 2x DEN, 1x BNA, 1x PHX, 1x FLL, reduce MDW to 3 or 4x because of other connection options.
 
roadpilot
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:24 pm

jplatts wrote:
Two of the largest routes in the contiguous U.S. without nonstop service are SAN-ORF and SAN-RDU. Will Southwest end up adding nonstop service to ORF and RDU from SAN?


ORF had one stop service via LAS when that station opened. And IIRC, there was a one stop RDU-SAN via MCI or AUS at one point
 
roadpilot
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:27 pm

flydulles wrote:
if there gonna dip there toe into Hawaii would that be in this schedule release?


I don't see Hawaii happening soon, supposedly the ETOPS program is to resume once the MAXs enter service.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:31 pm

aviationjunky wrote:
I expect to see large CVG expansion.


I dont think it will be large but I am curious to see if they expand CVG on this one.
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:03 pm

jbmitt wrote:
aviationjunky wrote:
I expect to see large CVG expansion.


2x STL, 2x DEN, 1x BNA, 1x PHX, 1x FLL, reduce MDW to 3 or 4x because of other connection options.


I wouldn't be surprised to see them hop on the CVG-LAS bandwagon. Apparently there is a larger market there than people expected.
LAS is Life
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:06 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
Does WN have any LGA slots they're working on picking up? It was mentioned by an executive in a story about WN's 25th anniversary at CMH last week that they want to add CMH-LGA and the lack of slots is the only thing stopping them.

CRAA's wish list from WN from the same article includes SFO, MKE, and SAN.


I don't see WN using an LGA slot on CMH
 
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:12 pm

aviationjunky wrote:
I expect to see large CVG expansion.


In addition to CVG, Southwest has plenty of opportunities to expand at MSP, CMH, and CLE. There are many things that the MSP, CMH, and CLE markets have to the CVG market. First, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are all Midwestern cities that are located in the largest Midwestern metropolitan areas. Second, the largest markets that Southwest does not serve nonstop from at least one of these 4 airports are some of the largest markets out of each of these 4 airports that are not currently served nonstop by Southwest. Third, MSP, CLE, and CVG are the largest markets out of Dallas that are not served nonstop from Southwest's home base at Dallas Love Field. Fourth, MSP and CVG are still hubs for Delta Air Lines, which is in the SkyTeam alliance, and CLE was one of the former hubs for Continental Airlines, which was formerly in the SkyTeam alliance.

I do expect to see more than MDW and BWI served nonstop from CVG and I do expect Southwest to add nonstop service out of CVG to destinations west of the Mississippi River, but I expect Southwest to gradually expand out of CVG instead of doing a huge expansion all at once.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:42 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
No discussion on the closure of any station! Let's keep this to either rumors which are being discussed OR guesses/speculation about the upcoming schedule extension.

I'm going to guess with this being a two-month extension of the schedule to March 7th and this publication being prior to the big spring break additions, we won't see much. But, does anyone have information on how many aircraft will be entering service? Will this possibly play into more routes being added, additional frequencies on existing routes, or new locations? More international? How about (gasp) Hawaii?

Ready, go!


January and February WN will be adding back aircraft to recover it's temporary Fleet reduction from the 737-300 retirements.
I don't expect anything major like Hawaii during this time period. Heck I'm guessing it's probably more of a 2019 Hawaii plan.
Hearing another international destination will come early next year . I'm thinking SXM or KIN may be next on the short list from FLL.
I believe LAX T1 is scheduled to be finished in March 2018.
So next big announcements will probably be with the Fall March And April 2019 schedule release.

If and a big If WN pulls the ETOPS Hawaii trigger will probably happen around the WN June birthday celebrations or after the first MAX800 is delivered.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:46 pm

jplatts wrote:
aviationjunky wrote:
I expect to see large CVG expansion.


In addition to CVG, Southwest has plenty of opportunities to expand at MSP, CMH, and CLE. There are many things that the MSP, CMH, and CLE markets have to the CVG market. First, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are all Midwestern cities that are located in the largest Midwestern metropolitan areas. Second, the largest markets that Southwest does not serve nonstop from at least one of these 4 airports are some of the largest markets out of each of these 4 airports that are not currently served nonstop by Southwest.


WN said in the same article I referenced before that they intend for CMH to be one of their "Hometown Airline" markets, so expansion there wouldn't surprise me at all. Same with CVG.
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jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:55 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
Does WN have any LGA slots they're working on picking up? It was mentioned by an executive in a story about WN's 25th anniversary at CMH last week that they want to add CMH-LGA and the lack of slots is the only thing stopping them.

CRAA's wish list from WN from the same article includes SFO, MKE, and SAN.


Southwest already does serve OAK nonstop from CMH, but Southwest possibly could do either a 2nd CMH-OAK nonstop or a CMH-SFO nonstop if the demand is there for a second nonstop from CMH to the San Francisco Bay Area. United has recently been expanding from its SFO hub to the Midwest, including adding new nonstop service to CVG and DTW from SFO and including adding mainline service to MCI from SFO, and United could also add SFO-CMH nonstop service. Which of the three would happen first: (1) WN adding a 2nd CMH-OAK nonstop, (2) WN adding CMH-SFO nonstop service, or (3) UA adding CMH-SFO nonstop service?

Southwest will be adding nonstop service from Cleveland, which is the 2nd largest Ohio city, to Milwaukee on November 5th. I am not sure if MKE-CMH nonstop service will happen yet, but CMH currently does not have nonstop service to MKE and Southwest could potentially go there from CMH if Southwest does well on CLE-MKE.

San Diego is the largest market out of Columbus that is currently without nonstop service out of CMH, but there are 6 markets out of CMH that are larger than SAN, that see nonstop service out of CMH on airlines other than Southwest, and that Southwest does not serve nonstop from CMH. The 6 markets larger than SAN that Southwest does not fly to nonstop out of CMH are LGA, LAX, PHL, MSP, HOU, and CLT, but Southwest already will be starting seasonal nonstop service to HOU from CMH on November 17th.

Southwest could also possibly add nonstop service from LAX to CMH as Southwest is the dominant carrier at CMH and has a significant presence at LAX. LAX is also the 2nd largest market out of CMH after LGA that Southwest does not serve nonstop from CMH. Southwest will have room to add additional nonstops out of LAX after Terminal 1 renovations at LAX are completed, and CMH is one of the markets that Southwest could expand to out of LAX.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:30 pm

BNA-IND or BNA-PDX would be nice.
Herb Kelleher>Gary Kelly
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:33 pm

SFOATLFlyer wrote:
IIRC, a long time ago there was a PBI flight, likely seasonal but I can't remember. WN tried BNA-GSP, it didn't stay long either. RIC? I don't see it. While not the same, the ORF nonstop lasted maybe a year. It seems like everytime WN adds at BNA, they also subtract - sometimes frequently, sometimes dropped cities. It's my understanding they have 2 additional gates, but I haven't been down into the C20's for some time.


They've got the gates now. Southwest operates 101 daily departures from BNA. Supposedly we'll see more additions in the future.
Herb Kelleher>Gary Kelly
 
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SANFan
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:36 pm

jplatts wrote:
Two of the largest routes in the contiguous U.S. without nonstop service are SAN-ORF and SAN-RDU. Will Southwest end up adding nonstop service to ORF and RDU from SAN?

WN, IMHO, has some 'tidying up' to do in SAN in 2018. First, we need to see what's happening with SAN-MKE: was announced as daily/year-round service in summer of 2016, then the route was cancelled completely as of this November. It's unclear if the flight will return in 2018, as seasonal or permanent, or not at all. (The DOT stats for 4Q16 show the route producing ~150 PDEW, which sounds viable to me.)

Then we have 3 other routes from SAN that started last weekend -- IND, EWR and GEG -- that are currently listed as 'seasonal' (and end ~mid-August) but, IMO, should end up as year-round routes. (Rumors were that they would be extended to permanent flights once the a/c availability situation was solved.

Once these 4 markets are 'fixed', we'll see what WN does next with SAN. Nonstops to ORF, RDU, and TPA should be starting sooner rather than later, I would expect, but I'm not so sure WN would be the cx to do so. SAN-ORF has produced traffic for many years that would support nonstop service except that it's primarily military in nature which might be a factor in cx serving it or passing it by (which is obviously what's happened so far.) There's been some discussion about RDU-SAN on the "RDU-thread" for anyone interested.

Another factor in SAN expansion is that AS is now right up there with WN as far as # of destinations served, and both cx are very aggressively growing there ops at Lindbergh Field. Either cx could add these routes, or others, just as the 2nd half of 2017 has seen.

Finally, SAN, with 11 crowded WN gates and over 100 daily departures, is getting closer to usable capacity limits, with expansion several years away. I'm not really sure how much more they will be able to run through T1W before there's simply no more room.

bb
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:57 pm

Will Southwest Airlines acquire additional slots at DCA for additional nonstop flights within the DCA perimeter? One of the real limiting factors for Southwest at DCA is the AA hub operation at DCA, and Southwest only does 42 flights per day out of 7 gates at DCA. Southwest has room to do more flights out of its existing DCA gates without having to acquire additional gates at DCA if it can acquire additional slots at DCA.

The top markets from DC within the DCA perimeter that Southwest does not currently serve nonstop out of DCA include Boston, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Detroit, Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Jacksonville (FL), Hartford, West Palm Beach, Charleston (SC), Cleveland, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Portland (ME), Birmingham (AL), Albany, Pittsburgh, and Oklahoma City. Southwest already does serve all of these destinations nonstop from BWI, but these are destinations that Southwest could possibly expand to out of DCA if Southwest gets extra slots at DCA.

Will Southwest actually get extra slots at DCA for more within-perimeter flights? Will Southwest be adding nonstops to additional destinations out of DCA?
 
SFOATLFlyer
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:11 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
SFOATLFlyer wrote:
IIRC, a long time ago there was a PBI flight, likely seasonal but I can't remember. WN tried BNA-GSP, it didn't stay long either. RIC? I don't see it. While not the same, the ORF nonstop lasted maybe a year. It seems like everytime WN adds at BNA, they also subtract - sometimes frequently, sometimes dropped cities. It's my understanding they have 2 additional gates, but I haven't been down into the C20's for some time.


They've got the gates now. Southwest operates 101 daily departures from BNA. Supposedly we'll see more additions in the future.


Thanks for the update. Isn't this the first time they have topped 100? I remember when they first started BNA using A gates when I flew a DAL-HOU-BNA and back flight. Seems like a long time ago.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:34 pm

Will Southwest end up adding nonstops to additional Midwestern cities from Philadelphia? PHL is one of the largest markets that Southwest does not currently fly to nonstop from MCI, MSP, MKE, IND, CVG, CLE, or CMH. There is no easy access to IND, CVG, CMH, or CLE from Philadelphia on Southwest, and the only options to get to IND, CVG, CMH, or CLE on Southwest is to either take the 1 1/2 hour train ride on Amtrak to BWI and then fly out of BWI or an out-of-the-way connection on Southwest through MDW, BNA, or ATL to these destinations. PHL is also the largest market out of Kansas City that Southwest does not currently fly to nonstop out of MCI, and Southwest could also add PHL-MCI nonstop service with Southwest being the dominant carrier at MCI.

Southwest did serve CMH nonstop from PHL in the past, but there are several factors that might possibly lead to Southwest reviving PHL-CMH nonstop service. First, PHL is one of the largest markets out of CMH that is not served nonstop by Southwest out of CMH. Second, American Airlines is currently the only airline to serve PHL nonstop from CMH. Third, there is no easy access to PHL out of CMH on Southwest since travelling between PHL and CMH on Southwest requires a connection and the travel distance between PHL and CMH with a connection at MDW is more than double the distance of the PHL-CMH nonstop. Fourth, Southwest discontinued the PHL-CMH flight back in November 2009 during an economic crisis and prior to US Airways announcing plans to merge with AA. Finally, while Southwest was the dominant carrier back in 2009 when it served PHL nonstop from CMH, Southwest is much bigger at CMH today than it was back in 2009.

If Southwest were to add nonstop service from PHL to additional Midwestern cities, which Midwestern cities would Southwest add nonstop service to first?
 
phluser
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:58 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest end up adding nonstops to additional Midwestern cities from Philadelphia? PHL is one of the largest markets that Southwest does not currently fly to nonstop from MCI, MSP, MKE, IND, CVG, CLE, or CMH. There is no easy access to IND, CVG, CMH, or CLE from Philadelphia on Southwest, and the only options to get to IND, CVG, CMH, or CLE on Southwest is to either take the 1 1/2 hour train ride on Amtrak to BWI and then fly out of BWI or an out-of-the-way connection on Southwest through MDW, BNA, or ATL to these destinations. PHL is also the largest market out of Kansas City that Southwest does not currently fly to nonstop out of MCI, and Southwest could also add PHL-MCI nonstop service with Southwest being the dominant carrier at MCI.

Southwest did serve CMH nonstop from PHL in the past, but there are several factors that might possibly lead to Southwest reviving PHL-CMH nonstop service. First, PHL is one of the largest markets out of CMH that is not served nonstop by Southwest out of CMH. Second, American Airlines is currently the only airline to serve PHL nonstop from CMH. Third, there is no easy access to PHL out of CMH on Southwest since travelling between PHL and CMH on Southwest requires a connection and the travel distance between PHL and CMH with a connection at MDW is more than double the distance of the PHL-CMH nonstop. Fourth, Southwest discontinued the PHL-CMH flight back in November 2009 during an economic crisis and prior to US Airways announcing plans to merge with AA. Finally, while Southwest was the dominant carrier back in 2009 when it served PHL nonstop from CMH, Southwest is much bigger at CMH today than it was back in 2009.

If Southwest were to add nonstop service from PHL to additional Midwestern cities, which Midwestern cities would Southwest add nonstop service to first?


I'd be surprised if it added any service from PHL to these cities. CVG has the lowest likelihood as its a brand new WN station and WN is still small there. It's discounting CVG-BWI fares, plenty of $59 WGA fares booked in advance, trying to build up the market.

MCI might have the best shot. AA flies 3x daily, while most of the other cities have 4x or higher frequency from AA. The lower the AA frequency and the farther the distance (as MCI is past Chicago), the easier Southwest can get away with a 1x daily and better the chance IMO. Similarly, Southwest has a 1x daily MCI-LGA.

Anything shorter, for example CMH or CLE, AA can ramp up frequency. Anyways, Southwest has BWI and a roundtrip fare out of BWI, booked some weeks in advance, is still a discount over a roundtrip from AA from PHL. With points however, it's different. AA's point redemption is factored by mileage, and PHL has many cities under 500 miles where it's easy to get cities closer than Chicago and Atlanta, on 7500 miles.

I think CLE-MCO would a be good market for WN, as UA has made seasonal it's commitment to daily service on the route. WN offers atleast 2x daily on CMH-MCO and PIT-MCO even during the low season.
.
 
OslPhlWasChi
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:03 pm

jplatts wrote:
If Southwest were to add nonstop service from PHL to additional Midwestern cities, which Midwestern cities would Southwest add nonstop service to first?


From the PHL side of the equation, I am not too optimistic (though certainly would welcome) new Midwestern services on WN. The recent expansion by F9 out of PHL included service to CMH, IND, and CLE which was discontinued after one summer season (meanwhile, MKE, MCI, and CVG all returned in S17). These F9 3-4x weekly services are not directly interchangeable with WN, who I would assume would do daily service, but perhaps an indicator that the Midwest does not demand much more LLC service. Ultimately, I think less than daily service on F9 is more likely to return than WN to enter these markets.

On the other hand, I think PIT is wide open for competition against AA on PIT-PHL! What is the history on this route? Was WN the last carrier to attempt PHL-PIT and when was that?

If WN is looking to add service to PHL, which I am not sure they are, I believe the biggest hole in their network is HOU which is long overdue. Otherwise, maybe a flight to OAK or LAX but that is just me dreaming.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:25 pm

OslPhlWasChi wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Otherwise, maybe a flight to OAK or LAX but that is just me dreaming.


They flew OAK-PHL back in the 2000s, but that was when they were building up PHL. I think year round OAK-EWR is more likely before OAK-PHL returns.
 
KCaviator
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:29 pm

DSM closes for sure :spin:
 
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flyPIT
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:37 pm

OslPhlWasChi wrote:

On the other hand, I think PIT is wide open for competition against AA on PIT-PHL! What is the history on this route? Was WN the last carrier to attempt PHL-PIT and when was that?


If you want to look back decades, PIT-PHL has had a competitor to Allegheny/USAIR/US Airways/AA more often than not be it from a legacy such as TWA or an upstart such as NationsAir or Eastwind. When WN operated the route they offered up to 7x daily during their peak. So I think there is room for them to re-enter the route and have stated a few times now they are looking at it. The current 4-5 year stretch where AA has had a monopoly on PIT-PHL may in fact be the longest stretch in decades that there has only been one airline on the route.



PIT-OAK on WN is long overdue IMHO.
FLYi
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:40 pm

phluser wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest end up adding nonstops to additional Midwestern cities from Philadelphia? PHL is one of the largest markets that Southwest does not currently fly to nonstop from MCI, MSP, MKE, IND, CVG, CLE, or CMH.

If Southwest were to add nonstop service from PHL to additional Midwestern cities, which Midwestern cities would Southwest add nonstop service to first?


I'd be surprised if it added any service from PHL to these cities. CVG has the lowest likelihood as its a brand new WN station and WN is still small there. It's discounting CVG-BWI fares, plenty of $59 WGA fares booked in advance, trying to build up the market.

MCI might have the best shot. AA flies 3x daily, while most of the other cities have 4x or higher frequency from AA. The lower the AA frequency and the farther the distance (as MCI is past Chicago), the easier Southwest can get away with a 1x daily and better the chance IMO. Similarly, Southwest has a 1x daily MCI-LGA.

Anything shorter, for example CMH or CLE, AA can ramp up frequency. Anyways, Southwest has BWI and a roundtrip fare out of BWI, booked some weeks in advance, is still a discount over a roundtrip from AA from PHL. With points however, it's different. AA's point redemption is factored by mileage, and PHL has many cities under 500 miles where it's easy to get cities closer than Chicago and Atlanta, on 7500 miles.


CVG already has nonstop service to PHL on Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and seasonally on Frontier Airlines. There is no need for Southwest to do CVG-PHL nonstop flights right away since there is already plenty of competition on CVG-PHL nonstop service and since there are other markets that Southwest would go to nonstop out of CVG first before it even considers serving PHL nonstop from CVG.

If Southwest Airlines were to add nonstop service from PHL to a Midwestern city, MCI would probably the first Midwestern city that Southwest would add a nonstop to out of PHL. The only Midwestern cities where Southwest has a larger presence than MCI are MDW and STL, and both of these cities already have more than 1 daily nonstop to PHL on Southwest Airlines. MCI is also the first city in the Midwest to be served by Southwest Airlines and has been in MCI for over 35 years.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:20 pm

Will Southwest add OMA-BWI nonstop flight? It is currently the only city where Southwest has a nonstop to DCA but not to BWI.

Will Southwest add ELP-BWI nonstop service? ELP is the largest market out of Washington, D.C. that does not see any nonstop service to any of the DC airports.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:48 pm

The largest markets out of Chicago Midway that where Southwest only does 1 daily nonstop out of MDW are Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, San Jose (CA), and Tucson.

Will Southwest add a 2nd nonstop to OKC and SJC out of MDW? OKC and SJC appear to be big enough for Southwest to do at least 2 nonstops out of MDW, especially since MDW is Southwest's top destination and especially since OKC and SJC are located in large U.S. Cities.

The largest markets out of Chicago that does not have nonstop service out of Chicago Midway include Richmond, Rochester (NY), Des Moines, Tulsa, Little Rock, Greenville/Spartanburg, El Paso, and Wichita. Southwest had previously served most of these markets nonstop from MDW, but hasn't yet done MDW-RIC nonstop service. Will Southwest Airlines add MDW-RIC nonstop service or revive nonstop service from MDW to any of the cities that previously had nonstop service to MDW?
Last edited by jplatts on Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:03 pm

The largest markets out of Denver that Southwest Airlines does not fly to nonstop out of DEN include Charlotte, Cincinnati, Memphis, Des Moines, and Richmond. Frontier does serve CLT, CVG, MEM, and DSM nonstop from DEN, but Richmond isn't even served by Frontier. Will Southwest add nonstops to any of these cities from DEN?
 
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Juanefny
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:29 pm

How about an ABQ - FLL?
Any red eyes on this schedule update?
 
Cvgspotter15
Posts: 84
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:33 pm

jplatts wrote:
The largest markets out of Denver that Southwest Airlines does not fly to nonstop out of DEN include Charlotte, Cincinnati, Memphis, Des Moines, and Richmond. Frontier does serve CLT, CVG, MEM, and DSM nonstop from DEN, but Richmond isn't even served by Frontier. Will Southwest add nonstops to any of these cities from DEN?


CVG also gets Allegiant delta and united to DEN
 
lat41
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:02 am

Remember that WN will still be pinched for aircraft during this period so don't expect anything too dramatic.
 
flyboy7974
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:33 am

Didn't SWA already try ORF SAN nonstop in the past?
 
stl07
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:17 am

jplatts wrote:
The largest markets out of Chicago Midway that where Southwest only does 1 daily nonstop out of MDW are Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, San Jose (CA), and Tucson.

Will Southwest add a 2nd nonstop to OKC and SJC out of MDW? OKC and SJC appear to be big enough for Southwest to do at least 2 nonstops out of MDW, especially since MDW is Southwest's top destination and especially since OKC and SJC are located in large U.S. Cities.

The largest markets out of Chicago that does not have nonstop service out of Chicago Midway include Richmond, Rochester (NY), Des Moines, Tulsa, Little Rock, Greenville/Spartanburg, El Paso, and Wichita. Southwest had previously served most of these markets nonstop from MDW, but hasn't yet done MDW-RIC nonstop service. Will Southwest Airlines add MDW-RIC nonstop service or revive nonstop service from MDW to any of the cities that previously had nonstop service to MDW?

I don't think there will be any growth in MDW without axing other routes as they are completely full on capacity at the airport, though these adds do make sense. Many of the routes listed have been switched to STL which as an entire empty concourse for growth. This does bring up the question of WN adding these cities from STL though
 
ty97
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:43 am

DeltaRules wrote:
Does WN have any LGA slots they're working on picking up? It was mentioned by an executive in a story about WN's 25th anniversary at CMH last week that they want to add CMH-LGA and the lack of slots is the only thing stopping them.


LGA slots are difficult to come by, airlines hoard them like treasure. I'm not aware of anyone looking to offload any slots (not that I personally would be aware of any secret negotiations) but it would probably shock me if anyone was looking to offload LGA slots. I can't imagine what WN would offer of equal compensation to entice anyone to do so.

IIRC, the last two times slots traded places at LGA were the DL/US DCA/LGA slot swap (prior to the AA/US merger) and then the forced slot divestiture by AA/US as part of merger settlement. Perhaps there have been other smaller trades I am not aware of, but slots don't seem to change hands often or easily.

Therefore, if WN wants to operate CMH-LGA, they will likely need to cut something else at LGA.

ETA: EWR is no longer strictly slot controlled, so WN could conceivably add CMH-EWR (if they have the gate space) if they really desire to serve CMH-NYC.

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