robsaw
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Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:17 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/newleaf ... -1.4149722

So, another <pseudo->air-carrier effectively is gone. Flair, the actual operator for Newleaf, has bought their assets and will continue operations - for now.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:20 pm

This sounds like a more tidy and easier to understand relationship to me. Perhaps Flair will brand some of their planes in the New Leaf livery as opposed to that horrible photoshop job on the CBC piece.
 
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jnev3289
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 7:03 pm

Shocked they've survived this long, good for them. Still not too rosy on their future, but I've been wrong before I guess
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:07 pm

Wow, I was not expecting that.

Maybe Flair's seen the numbers and realize that if the current Mickey Mouse regime has lasted this long that they can actually make a go of it in-house? They've gone from near-zero risk to assuming all the risk.

Let's see how this plays out.

From the news article:
If they're going to make this a successful venture, they're going to have to offer frequent service between major city pairings such as Vancouver-Toronto, Edmonton-Calgary, Montreal-Toronto and so forth to tap into that lucrative market.


Actually that is exactly what's killed all the others - see Can('t)Jet and JetsGon(ne) as the most recent examples...which were 10-12 years ago!

They need to adopt a hybrid of the NK/F9/G4 model of flight frequencies ranging from 2-5 flights/week to 1-2 flights day and use secondary airports (i.e. YXX, YHM, etc.) linked in to Canada's second-tier major airports (i.e. YEG, YWG, YOW, YHZ, etc.) and third tier (e.g. YQM, YQB, YQR, YXE, etc.). YSJ is ripe for the adding as it's literally the only airport in Canada > 200k pax/year south of the 60th parallel with no competitor to AC.

They need to avoid YYZ, YYC and YVR like the plague and if they want to serve YUL, it needs to feed YHM and/or YWG only.
Last edited by Dominion301 on Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
ACDC8
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:15 pm

Flair has been doing the charter flights for Shell to their Albian Oil Sands site for the last few years - now that CNRL (who charters from Canadian North) has bought the project from Shell - I'm wondering if Flair will loose that contract thus them looking more closely into New Leaf?
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
jimbo737
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:28 pm

I'll bet the sale price was less than the price of a new car.

New Leaf were behind on payments to at least one major Canadian airport. If they were behind at one airport, it's a safe bet they were behind at YXX, YWG and YHM as well.

One of their major players recently left the building.

This could simply be Flair taking on the operation for the best 4 months of the year to recoup losses, and then they, and they alone, control its future come the fall and winter of 2017-18.

Anyone who knows Flair's ownership knows that they are highly risk adverse, which is how they've stayed in business for so long.

Then again, US$7m and Flair is yours too.

And remember that foreigners are not permitted to own more than 49% of a Canadian airline, with no single entity allowed more than 25%. The CTA can, and has been able to dissect the most convoluted of ownership structures to deduce who effectively controls the entity.

Follow the money all the way to Minneapolis.
 
smallvoyageur
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:56 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
Wow, I was not expecting that.

Maybe Flair's seen the numbers and realize that if the current Mickey Mouse regime has lasted this long that they can actually make a go of it in-house? They've gone from near-zero risk to assuming all the risk.

Let's see how this plays out.

From the news article:
If they're going to make this a successful venture, they're going to have to offer frequent service between major city pairings such as Vancouver-Toronto, Edmonton-Calgary, Montreal-Toronto and so forth to tap into that lucrative market.


Actually that is exactly what's killed all the others - see Can('t)Jet and JetsGon(ne) as the most recent examples...which were 10-12 years ago!

They need to adopt a hybrid of the NK/F9/G4 model of flight frequencies ranging from 2-5 flights/week to 1-2 flights day and use secondary airports (i.e. YXX, YHM, etc.) linked in to Canada's second-tier major airports (i.e. YEG, YWG, YOW, YHZ, etc.) and third tier (e.g. YQM, YQB, YQR, YXE, etc.). YSJ is ripe for the adding as it's literally the only airport in Canada > 200k pax/year south of the 60th parallel with no competitor to AC.

They need to avoid YYZ, YYC and YVR like the plague and if they want to serve YUL, it needs to feed YHM and/or YWG only.


Totally agreed, they should really try and focus on the secondary airports unless this a not possible like Montreal with YUL. A little birdie has told me that Flair has receive permission to fly to the US last month, so they probably are heading south as well.
 
ACDC8
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:05 pm

Found this on one of our local news sites ...

https://okanaganedge.net/2017/06/07/fla ... s-newleaf/
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
jimbo737
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:18 pm

Flair has been able to fly to the US for a while.

You will recall New Leaf announced both AZA and MLB in mid November 2016, using Flair Air iron, but cancelled them long before they generated a solitary asm.

They blamed WJ, but WJ has never operated to MLB so, if there were a market there, there should have been no issues for New Leaf / Flair at all.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:36 am

jimbo737 wrote:
Flair has been able to fly to the US for a while.

You will recall New Leaf announced both AZA and MLB in mid November 2016, using Flair Air iron, but cancelled them long before they generated a solitary asm.

They blamed WJ, but WJ has never operated to MLB so, if there were a market there, there should have been no issues for New Leaf / Flair at all.


There is a market from Canada to MLB as evidenced by PD's seasonal service. New Leaf simply never knew how to make Florida work (i.e. vacation packages).
 
jimbo737
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:37 am

As it stands, Porter is not selling YTZ-MLB, or at least not during the last week of Dec 2017.

And lest anyone forget, it was 2x weekly in a 78 seat aircraft.

And according to US DoT Form 41 filings, Porter managed a l/f of 55% for the YTZ-MLB flying in the first 4 months of 2016, (1,465 seats filled of 2,664 seats flown).
 
robsaw
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:03 am

ACDC8 wrote:
Found this on one of our local news sites ...

https://okanaganedge.net/2017/06/07/fla ... s-newleaf/


That article uses the words "merger" and similar phrases but the press release makes it clear that Flair bought the "assets" not the company. So, presumably Flair doesn't assume any liabilities remaining with Newleaf other than any pre-arranged debt repayments.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:49 am

jimbo737 wrote:
As it stands, Porter is not selling YTZ-MLB, or at least not during the last week of Dec 2017.

And lest anyone forget, it was 2x weekly in a 78 seat aircraft.

And according to US DoT Form 41 filings, Porter managed a l/f of 55% for the YTZ-MLB flying in the first 4 months of 2016, (1,465 seats filled of 2,664 seats flown).


In winter 2015-16, the period you highlight above, I believe PD only flew to MLB on Saturdays and this was their inaugural season. The fact they upped it to Sat/Sun this past winter is indicative it did okay enough for them to double the frequency. This is low-risk weekend flying for PD with aircraft that would otherwise be parked on the weekend. Keep in mind this route is load restricted to something like 57 pax due to YTZ' runway.

Also PD don't normally load their seasonal routes this far out. Therefore I fully expect MLB will return next winter.
 
ninspeed
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:10 am

Does NewLeaf actually have any physical assets to even sell? Is it not just a website selling seats on a charted airline anyways???
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:19 am

ninspeed wrote:
Does NewLeaf actually have any physical assets to even sell? Is it not just a website selling seats on a charted airline anyways???


It's pretty much that, other branding and an office in Winnipeg with a few marketing staff, call centre agents and other employees.
 
aamd11
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:21 am

Dominion301 wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
As it stands, Porter is not selling YTZ-MLB, or at least not during the last week of Dec 2017.

And lest anyone forget, it was 2x weekly in a 78 seat aircraft.

And according to US DoT Form 41 filings, Porter managed a l/f of 55% for the YTZ-MLB flying in the first 4 months of 2016, (1,465 seats filled of 2,664 seats flown).


In winter 2015-16, the period you highlight above, I believe PD only flew to MLB on Saturdays and this was their inaugural season. The fact they upped it to Sat/Sun this past winter is indicative it did okay enough for them to double the frequency. This is low-risk weekend flying for PD with aircraft that would otherwise be parked on the weekend. Keep in mind this route is load restricted to something like 57 pax due to YTZ' runway.

Also PD don't normally load their seasonal routes this far out. Therefore I fully expect MLB will return next winter.

Actually the second weekly trip was on a Wednesday rather than a weekend trip. Not exactly prime time like a Sunday trip would have been, but it was presumably intended to allow people to go for a few days at a time rather than commit a whole week. This is the same kind of offering in the other seasonal spots - BTV, MYR, YTM, YJT for example (a long weekend option almost).

None of the winter seasonal services are loaded yet, but you can be confident that MLB will be in the mix. MYR has looked suspect for a few years with direct competition on the route, but it'll probably be back - the downtown departure seems to be appealing enough to fill enough seats at the right price.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:38 pm

aamd11 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
As it stands, Porter is not selling YTZ-MLB, or at least not during the last week of Dec 2017.

And lest anyone forget, it was 2x weekly in a 78 seat aircraft.

And according to US DoT Form 41 filings, Porter managed a l/f of 55% for the YTZ-MLB flying in the first 4 months of 2016, (1,465 seats filled of 2,664 seats flown).


In winter 2015-16, the period you highlight above, I believe PD only flew to MLB on Saturdays and this was their inaugural season. The fact they upped it to Sat/Sun this past winter is indicative it did okay enough for them to double the frequency. This is low-risk weekend flying for PD with aircraft that would otherwise be parked on the weekend. Keep in mind this route is load restricted to something like 57 pax due to YTZ' runway.

Also PD don't normally load their seasonal routes this far out. Therefore I fully expect MLB will return next winter.

Actually the second weekly trip was on a Wednesday rather than a weekend trip. Not exactly prime time like a Sunday trip would have been, but it was presumably intended to allow people to go for a few days at a time rather than commit a whole week. This is the same kind of offering in the other seasonal spots - BTV, MYR, YTM, YJT for example (a long weekend option almost).

None of the winter seasonal services are loaded yet, but you can be confident that MLB will be in the mix. MYR has looked suspect for a few years with direct competition on the route, but it'll probably be back - the downtown departure seems to be appealing enough to fill enough seats at the right price.


That right is was. Either way, all of their seasonals are less-than-daily and share a total of 1-2 YTZ slots. The weekend flights on these routes, use what would otherwise be idle aircraft time.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:00 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
As it stands, Porter is not selling YTZ-MLB, or at least not during the last week of Dec 2017.

And lest anyone forget, it was 2x weekly in a 78 seat aircraft.

And according to US DoT Form 41 filings, Porter managed a l/f of 55% for the YTZ-MLB flying in the first 4 months of 2016, (1,465 seats filled of 2,664 seats flown).


I went to PD's website and they have the following message currently:
You’ve chosen a seasonal destination. Service to Orlando - Melbourne resumes in December 2017. Winter 2018 schedule will be announced at a later date. We hope you’ll consider joining us then.


In other words PD will be back in MLB this winter.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:15 am

Exactly one year after launching its first flight in Canada, NewLeaf Travel has a new name.
NewLeaf will be renamed Flair Airlines, following its June 7 acquisition by the Kelowna-based company of the same name.
“We are starting a new chapter in the airline industry. Today we celebrate a significant milestone of successfully reaching our [one] year mark, and we are excited to now move forward with a new brand that better reflects who we are as one unified company,” Flair Airlines’ Vice-President of Commercial Operations Chris Lapointe said in a statement Tuesday.


http://www.bnn.ca/newleaf-begins-new-ch ... e-1.813057

Looks like Flair has some confidence in their new airline. It also appears that they're acquiring 2 additional 737-400s.
 
abrelosojos
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:23 am

Why not hire competent and relevant people? Canadian ULCC's seem to keep hiring "old boys club" members when they really need new ideas and thinking.

Saludos,
Alex
Live, and let live.
 
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:08 pm

Interesting that they're going in to high cost YYZ and higher cost YVR, with a YEG "hub". They're jumping in on routes that already have tonnes of frequency.

Also interesting that Jetlines have announced YHM and YKF will be the initial focus of their operations.
 
Jetsouth
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:12 pm

And they are only offering flights four times a week from YYZ. Hardly a convenient schedule for most travelers. But on the other hand, they will probably offer a cheaper flight than AC and Westjet, and due to Flair's infrequent schedule, there probably will not be a price war as most customers will still pay for the flight frequencies that AC and Westjet offer. Flair's flights will attract those that will put up with an inconvenient schedule for a lower price.
 
USAOZ
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:38 pm

Jetsouth wrote:
And they are only offering flights four times a week from YYZ. Hardly a convenient schedule for most travelers. But on the other hand, they will probably offer a cheaper flight than AC and Westjet, and due to Flair's infrequent schedule, there probably will not be a price war as most customers will still pay for the flight frequencies that AC and Westjet offer. Flair's flights will attract those that will put up with an inconvenient schedule for a lower price.


your statement

"there probably will not be a price war as most customers will still pay for the flight frequencies that AC and Westjet offer" is just wrong. Plenty of low cost airlines around the world offer low frequency. In Australia we have Jetstar(Qantas low cost) & Tiger(now virgin low cost) who fly mostly routes flown by Qantas & virgin, as we don't have many 2ndary airports. They never compete with the big boys on frequency, but they appear to be doing well.

What you probably meant to say, is business types who don't pay their own fares or don't care about the fare, won't fly them, but if enough people do & they keep their costs very low, then it could work. Virtual airlines can work. Think about it. they have virtually no overheads compared to actual airlines. They don't own or lease very expensive aircraft, they have no maintenance staff to have to pay & with the internet now, they can run reservations, with minimal call centre staff.
 
USAOZ
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:51 pm

vrefplus5 wrote:
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/flair-airlines-announces-expansion-643724403.html?tc=portal_CAP
looking at this article, it seems a really good idea to start the new routes on 15DEC, leading into crazy Xmas period. Maybe if as they fill flights, they might put on extra, even if back of clock, assuming they have enough crew.

Perhaps Flair can do an Allegiant ?

ie. buy cheap older jets(Allegiant was apparently buying MD80's for a million bucks) & so run them hard in busy periods & park them in quiet periods. Remember reading in one of those airline magazines, that Allegiant used to park many aircraft on Tuesdays, cos it was a very low yield day.

There must be some deals on 733's/734's around these days. Also read there's a glut of aircraft, in Asia right now, with many new aircraft being delivered.

BTW
Many Australians/Kiwis visit USA/Canada in DEC-JAN. Summer school holidays in Australia run from mid NOV to early FEB (each state in slightly different) & many Australians now book their own flights to USA/Canada & need domestic flights in both USA & Canada.
 
Jetsouth
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Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:23 am

USAOZ wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
And they are only offering flights four times a week from YYZ. Hardly a convenient schedule for most travelers. But on the other hand, they will probably offer a cheaper flight than AC and Westjet, and due to Flair's infrequent schedule, there probably will not be a price war as most customers will still pay for the flight frequencies that AC and Westjet offer. Flair's flights will attract those that will put up with an inconvenient schedule for a lower price.


your statement

"there probably will not be a price war as most customers will still pay for the flight frequencies that AC and Westjet offer" is just wrong. Plenty of low cost airlines around the world offer low frequency. In Australia we have Jetstar(Qantas low cost) & Tiger(now virgin low cost) who fly mostly routes flown by Qantas & virgin, as we don't have many 2ndary airports. They never compete with the big boys on frequency, but they appear to be doing well.

What you probably meant to say, is business types who don't pay their own fares or don't care about the fare, won't fly them, but if enough people do & they keep their costs very low, then it could work. Virtual airlines can work. Think about it. they have virtually no overheads compared to actual airlines. They don't own or lease very expensive aircraft, they have no maintenance staff to have to pay & with the internet now, they can run reservations, with minimal call centre staff.

Yes, I would think that these flights would only be attractive to people who want to fly point-to-point, at a cheap price, who would be OK with an inconvenient schedule. These flights would not be popular for business people, those that want connections, and those that need to fly on specific days and times. There is a limited market for such flights, I believe. I think Flair's strategy is to purposely offer only a few flights a week to catch the people that are purely price sensitive. I think if they offered more frequent flights, they would definitely be in a price war with AC and Westjet and they would be put out of business.
 
USAOZ
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:34 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:39 am

Jetsouth wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
And they are only offering flights four times a week from YYZ. Hardly a convenient schedule for most travelers. But on the other hand, they will probably offer a cheaper flight than AC and Westjet, and due to Flair's infrequent schedule, there probably will not be a price war as most customers will still pay for the flight frequencies that AC and Westjet offer. Flair's flights will attract those that will put up with an inconvenient schedule for a lower price.


your statement

"there probably will not be a price war as most customers will still pay for the flight frequencies that AC and Westjet offer" is just wrong. Plenty of low cost airlines around the world offer low frequency. In Australia we have Jetstar(Qantas low cost) & Tiger(now virgin low cost) who fly mostly routes flown by Qantas & virgin, as we don't have many 2ndary airports. They never compete with the big boys on frequency, but they appear to be doing well.

What you probably meant to say, is business types who don't pay their own fares or don't care about the fare, won't fly them, but if enough people do & they keep their costs very low, then it could work. Virtual airlines can work. Think about it. they have virtually no overheads compared to actual airlines. They don't own or lease very expensive aircraft, they have no maintenance staff to have to pay & with the internet now, they can run reservations, with minimal call centre staff.

Yes, I would think that these flights would only be attractive to people who want to fly point-to-point, at a cheap price, who would be OK with an inconvenient schedule. These flights would not be popular for business people, those that want connections, and those that need to fly on specific days and times. There is a limited market for such flights, I believe. I think Flair's strategy is to purposely offer only a few flights a week to catch the people that are purely price sensitive. I think if they offered more frequent flights, they would definitely be in a price war with AC and Westjet and they would be put out of business.


you said

There is a limited market for such flights

Define limited ?

New Leaf according to one of the reports above, said they carried over 376,600 pax on over 3090 flights. Assuming that 376,600 pax in 3090 flights that's load factor of 121.88 pax per flight. Assuming each aircraft had 156 Y seats(some may have been in another seating config) that's over a 78% load factor.

Assuming Flair are a very low cost operation. As they acquire more aircraft, their costs per seat will be reduced. Maybe they just need to find routes that no other airlines flies nonstop & do them a couple of times a week. Think Allegiant started doing flights to LAS from 1 horse towns no one had even heard of, once or twice a week. The casinos must have almost given them rooms for virtually nothing, so they packaged the flights with hotel rooms in Vegas. The casinos make there money out of gambling/food/drinks etc. not the hotel rooms.


There are plenty of 2ndary airports in USA looking for business. Many people love avoiding big hubs, which can be stressful & time consuming.

Look eg. at DEN vs EGE. Denver is a zoo. They don't even have rental cars at the airport, which to me, is a big design mistake. They surely could have had their underground train go to car rental depots like at SFO.

It take a long time to get in & out of DEN. EGE, by comparison, is an fantastic airport. Rental cars are parked 50 metres from baggage claim. When departing EGE many people drive their rental car, right up to terminal door, unload their luggage & as long as not alone, leave luggage with other person & then go & park their rental. Have even seen people travelling alone, leave their rental car straight outside the terminal, go & check in & then go back & move their rental car.


No stress, no hassle. Try doing that at a big busy airport & you'd be towed away in 5 mins !!! Even the TSA at EGE aren't stressed.

& if you are going skiing, EGE is much closer to the resorts, than DEN.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 207
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:52 am

Chris needs to have lunch with his uncle in Kelowna who will set him straight on this hairbrained and ultimately ruinous expansion strategy.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:22 am

USAOZ wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
USAOZ wrote:

your statement

"there probably will not be a price war as most customers will still pay for the flight frequencies that AC and Westjet offer" is just wrong. Plenty of low cost airlines around the world offer low frequency. In Australia we have Jetstar(Qantas low cost) & Tiger(now virgin low cost) who fly mostly routes flown by Qantas & virgin, as we don't have many 2ndary airports. They never compete with the big boys on frequency, but they appear to be doing well.

What you probably meant to say, is business types who don't pay their own fares or don't care about the fare, won't fly them, but if enough people do & they keep their costs very low, then it could work. Virtual airlines can work. Think about it. they have virtually no overheads compared to actual airlines. They don't own or lease very expensive aircraft, they have no maintenance staff to have to pay & with the internet now, they can run reservations, with minimal call centre staff.

Yes, I would think that these flights would only be attractive to people who want to fly point-to-point, at a cheap price, who would be OK with an inconvenient schedule. These flights would not be popular for business people, those that want connections, and those that need to fly on specific days and times. There is a limited market for such flights, I believe. I think Flair's strategy is to purposely offer only a few flights a week to catch the people that are purely price sensitive. I think if they offered more frequent flights, they would definitely be in a price war with AC and Westjet and they would be put out of business.


you said

There is a limited market for such flights

Define limited ?

New Leaf according to one of the reports above, said they carried over 376,600 pax on over 3090 flights. Assuming that 376,600 pax in 3090 flights that's load factor of 121.88 pax per flight. Assuming each aircraft had 156 Y seats(some may have been in another seating config) that's over a 78% load factor.

Assuming Flair are a very low cost operation. As they acquire more aircraft, their costs per seat will be reduced. Maybe they just need to find routes that no other airlines flies nonstop & do them a couple of times a week. Think Allegiant started doing flights to LAS from 1 horse towns no one had even heard of, once or twice a week. The casinos must have almost given them rooms for virtually nothing, so they packaged the flights with hotel rooms in Vegas. The casinos make there money out of gambling/food/drinks etc. not the hotel rooms.


There are plenty of 2ndary airports in USA looking for business. Many people love avoiding big hubs, which can be stressful & time consuming.

Look eg. at DEN vs EGE. Denver is a zoo. They don't even have rental cars at the airport, which to me, is a big design mistake. They surely could have had their underground train go to car rental depots like at SFO.

It take a long time to get in & out of DEN. EGE, by comparison, is an fantastic airport. Rental cars are parked 50 metres from baggage claim. When departing EGE many people drive their rental car, right up to terminal door, unload their luggage & as long as not alone, leave luggage with other person & then go & park their rental. Have even seen people travelling alone, leave their rental car straight outside the terminal, go & check in & then go back & move their rental car.


No stress, no hassle. Try doing that at a big busy airport & you'd be towed away in 5 mins !!! Even the TSA at EGE aren't stressed.

& if you are going skiing, EGE is much closer to the resorts, than DEN.

Flying from secondary airports in Canada has been tried before, and the end result is that the airline usually either folds up, or moves to the primary airport instead.

WestJet tried having Hamilton as their Eastern hub in their early years, but could not make it work; they eventually moved to Toronto Pearson, because that's where the passengers are. As an business, ignoring where your potential customer base is located is done at your own peril.

In Canada, outside of Abbotsford and Hamilton, there is very little secondary market available for airlines to carve out a niche as a LCC. The market isn't there as the population size is too small and too dispersed.

Flair will eventually run out of money as there are too many fees and taxes in Canada for an ULCC to generate new market share, such as Airport Improvement Fees, a security fees and GST, which could easily make up a significant portion of the ticket price.

Neither WestJet or Air Canada are vulnerable right now like Air Canada was when WestJet started or the American legacies were as Frontier, Virgin, JetBlue, and Spirit found their niche. Both WestJet and Air Canada have cut their costs considerably, and have very large war chests to fight with against Flair, and I foresee another Jetsgo situation again with Flair. Airline flying old airplanes fighting a price war with incumbents and not having a large enough war chest to see them through a price war.

I can't imagine any way that Flair could operate a B737-500 YVR-YLW cheaper than a Encore or a AC Express Q400. Neither airline is going to be in a position where they'll have to decide to give up massive amounts market share or take a major loss unlike a decade ago when Air Canada was struggling against the newer, lean entrant in WestJet. No amount of discounting by Flair to generate traffic would ever be enough to both fill Flair's 737 AND eek out a profit, even at peak times. It's just the nature of the business and their low revenues from peak periods won't carry them far. They're going to end up flying old aircraft too much with no spares to cover flights when issues arise, that's when things get really expensive and people get angry. And when people get angry, they will leave you in droves, so you end up flying empty planes, bleeding even more cash.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:43 am

And as an additional note, Flair isn't the cheapest option either; I've just ran some bookings:

YXX to YEG
Flair:
Sept 29 - $81
Flair flight F81300
Depart: 08:00 YXX
Arrive: 10:34 YEG

Oct 2 - $99
Flair flight F81300
Depart: 08:00 YXX
Arrive: 10:34 YEG

Oct 6 - $ 125
Flair flight F81300
Depart: 08:00 YXX
Arrive: 10:34 YEG

WestJet:

Sept 29:
$68.38 to $248.06
12 direct or connecting flights, every day

How the heck is Flair going to compete with that? With WestJet, I have the option of cheaper fare, or a better schedule at a time I can pick. Or, I can pay $10-30 bucks more and fly from YVR, with either WestJet or Air Canada, and fly from a more convenient airport; it's roughly 72km between the two airports, and I can get to YVR quicker than I can get to YXX, which is the same for the majority of people living in the Greater Vancouver Area. Fuel alone and wear and tear on a car alone will make up the difference there, and forget about transit or taxi.

My bet? Flair is going to go bankrupt in a year's time. They can't compete on price, schedule, nor can they create their own niche.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 207
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:10 pm

WS was able to beat up Canadi>n Airlines at its leisure in the late 90's, which it did with a scalpel.

Flair is not sitting on a war chest, and unlike WS who had one of the largest pension funds in North America backing them, have no one other than Jim Rogers, who should know better, financing this mess.

If 737-400's were the answer to ULCC dreams, then every ULCC would operate 737-400's. They don't. There is nothing low cost about that airframe, just like there was nothing low cost about Greyhound Airs 727's, another venture the head honcho at Flair would probably like to forget.

Young Chris Lapointe is about to get the schooling of his lifetime, not to mention the first stripe as a guy who's led an airline into bankruptcy.
 
USAOZ
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:34 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
Yes, I would think that these flights would only be attractive to people who want to fly point-to-point, at a cheap price, who would be OK with an inconvenient schedule. These flights would not be popular for business people, those that want connections, and those that need to fly on specific days and times. There is a limited market for such flights, I believe. I think Flair's strategy is to purposely offer only a few flights a week to catch the people that are purely price sensitive. I think if they offered more frequent flights, they would definitely be in a price war with AC and Westjet and they would be put out of business.


you said

There is a limited market for such flights

Define limited ?

New Leaf according to one of the reports above, said they carried over 376,600 pax on over 3090 flights. Assuming that 376,600 pax in 3090 flights that's load factor of 121.88 pax per flight. Assuming each aircraft had 156 Y seats(some may have been in another seating config) that's over a 78% load factor.

Assuming Flair are a very low cost operation. As they acquire more aircraft, their costs per seat will be reduced. Maybe they just need to find routes that no other airlines flies nonstop & do them a couple of times a week. Think Allegiant started doing flights to LAS from 1 horse towns no one had even heard of, once or twice a week. The casinos must have almost given them rooms for virtually nothing, so they packaged the flights with hotel rooms in Vegas. The casinos make there money out of gambling/food/drinks etc. not the hotel rooms.


There are plenty of 2ndary airports in USA looking for business. Many people love avoiding big hubs, which can be stressful & time consuming.

Look eg. at DEN vs EGE. Denver is a zoo. They don't even have rental cars at the airport, which to me, is a big design mistake. They surely could have had their underground train go to car rental depots like at SFO.

It take a long time to get in & out of DEN. EGE, by comparison, is an fantastic airport. Rental cars are parked 50 metres from baggage claim. When departing EGE many people drive their rental car, right up to terminal door, unload their luggage & as long as not alone, leave luggage with other person & then go & park their rental. Have even seen people travelling alone, leave their rental car straight outside the terminal, go & check in & then go back & move their rental car.


No stress, no hassle. Try doing that at a big busy airport & you'd be towed away in 5 mins !!! Even the TSA at EGE aren't stressed.

& if you are going skiing, EGE is much closer to the resorts, than DEN.

Flying from secondary airports in Canada has been tried before, and the end result is that the airline usually either folds up, or moves to the primary airport instead.

WestJet tried having Hamilton as their Eastern hub in their early years, but could not make it work; they eventually moved to Toronto Pearson, because that's where the passengers are. As an business, ignoring where your potential customer base is located is done at your own peril.

In Canada, outside of Abbotsford and Hamilton, there is very little secondary market available for airlines to carve out a niche as a LCC. The market isn't there as the population size is too small and too dispersed.

Flair will eventually run out of money as there are too many fees and taxes in Canada for an ULCC to generate new market share, such as Airport Improvement Fees, a security fees and GST, which could easily make up a significant portion of the ticket price.

Neither WestJet or Air Canada are vulnerable right now like Air Canada was when WestJet started or the American legacies were as Frontier, Virgin, JetBlue, and Spirit found their niche. Both WestJet and Air Canada have cut their costs considerably, and have very large war chests to fight with against Flair, and I foresee another Jetsgo situation again with Flair. Airline flying old airplanes fighting a price war with incumbents and not having a large enough war chest to see them through a price war.

I can't imagine any way that Flair could operate a B737-500 YVR-YLW cheaper than a Encore or a AC Express Q400. Neither airline is going to be in a position where they'll have to decide to give up massive amounts market share or take a major loss unlike a decade ago when Air Canada was struggling against the newer, lean entrant in WestJet. No amount of discounting by Flair to generate traffic would ever be enough to both fill Flair's 737 AND eek out a profit, even at peak times. It's just the nature of the business and their low revenues from peak periods won't carry them far. They're going to end up flying old aircraft too much with no spares to cover flights when issues arise, that's when things get really expensive and people get angry. And when people get angry, they will leave you in droves, so you end up flying empty planes, bleeding even more cash.
AC & WJ are surely never going to do any discounting in peak season, unless they do flights at awful hours. What overheads do Flair have ? 5 old 734's which they probably lease or bought for almost nothing. Maintenance might be their biggest cost. Allegiant seems to have done very well out of LAS.

couldn't Flair simply copy Allegiant, just from Canada instead of USA ? Doubt if many business types fly Allegiant, but they seem to be doing very well, in fact the big boys are now copying them with ultra budget economy fares.

Look at USA experience. Spirit- lots of horror stories(some I'm sure have been made up by legacy airlines) & people still flock to them.

In Australia, in SE Qld, apart from BNE, there are other 3 international airports within 2 hours drive. OOL, 90 minutes south, where all the LCC's & ULCC's fly to. MCY 90 minutes north, which is mostly domestic, but has some seasonal flights to AKL & the new Brisbane West Wellcamp, privately owned airport built in record time, that now has CX 747 freighters weekly I think.

The old Southwest rule, was, people to drive for 2 hours to save 5 cents & it's not just the airfare. Car parking at 2ndary airport is almost always much cheaper.
 
USAOZ
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:34 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:12 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
Yes, I would think that these flights would only be attractive to people who want to fly point-to-point, at a cheap price, who would be OK with an inconvenient schedule. These flights would not be popular for business people, those that want connections, and those that need to fly on specific days and times. There is a limited market for such flights, I believe. I think Flair's strategy is to purposely offer only a few flights a week to catch the people that are purely price sensitive. I think if they offered more frequent flights, they would definitely be in a price war with AC and Westjet and they would be put out of business.


you said

There is a limited market for such flights

Define limited ?

New Leaf according to one of the reports above, said they carried over 376,600 pax on over 3090 flights. Assuming that 376,600 pax in 3090 flights that's load factor of 121.88 pax per flight. Assuming each aircraft had 156 Y seats(some may have been in another seating config) that's over a 78% load factor.

Assuming Flair are a very low cost operation. As they acquire more aircraft, their costs per seat will be reduced. Maybe they just need to find routes that no other airlines flies nonstop & do them a couple of times a week. Think Allegiant started doing flights to LAS from 1 horse towns no one had even heard of, once or twice a week. The casinos must have almost given them rooms for virtually nothing, so they packaged the flights with hotel rooms in Vegas. The casinos make there money out of gambling/food/drinks etc. not the hotel rooms.


There are plenty of 2ndary airports in USA looking for business. Many people love avoiding big hubs, which can be stressful & time consuming.

Look eg. at DEN vs EGE. Denver is a zoo. They don't even have rental cars at the airport, which to me, is a big design mistake. They surely could have had their underground train go to car rental depots like at SFO.

It take a long time to get in & out of DEN. EGE, by comparison, is an fantastic airport. Rental cars are parked 50 metres from baggage claim. When departing EGE many people drive their rental car, right up to terminal door, unload their luggage & as long as not alone, leave luggage with other person & then go & park their rental. Have even seen people travelling alone, leave their rental car straight outside the terminal, go & check in & then go back & move their rental car.


No stress, no hassle. Try doing that at a big busy airport & you'd be towed away in 5 mins !!! Even the TSA at EGE aren't stressed.

& if you are going skiing, EGE is much closer to the resorts, than DEN.

Flying from secondary airports in Canada has been tried before, and the end result is that the airline usually either folds up, or moves to the primary airport instead.

WestJet tried having Hamilton as their Eastern hub in their early years, but could not make it work; they eventually moved to Toronto Pearson, because that's where the passengers are. As an business, ignoring where your potential customer base is located is done at your own peril.

In Canada, outside of Abbotsford and Hamilton, there is very little secondary market available for airlines to carve out a niche as a LCC. The market isn't there as the population size is too small and too dispersed.

Flair will eventually run out of money as there are too many fees and taxes in Canada for an ULCC to generate new market share, such as Airport Improvement Fees, a security fees and GST, which could easily make up a significant portion of the ticket price.

Neither WestJet or Air Canada are vulnerable right now like Air Canada was when WestJet started or the American legacies were as Frontier, Virgin, JetBlue, and Spirit found their niche. Both WestJet and Air Canada have cut their costs considerably, and have very large war chests to fight with against Flair, and I foresee another Jetsgo situation again with Flair. Airline flying old airplanes fighting a price war with incumbents and not having a large enough war chest to see them through a price war.

I can't imagine any way that Flair could operate a B737-500 YVR-YLW cheaper than a Encore or a AC Express Q400. Neither airline is going to be in a position where they'll have to decide to give up massive amounts market share or take a major loss unlike a decade ago when Air Canada was struggling against the newer, lean entrant in WestJet. No amount of discounting by Flair to generate traffic would ever be enough to both fill Flair's 737 AND eek out a profit, even at peak times. It's just the nature of the business and their low revenues from peak periods won't carry them far. They're going to end up flying old aircraft too much with no spares to cover flights when issues arise, that's when things get really expensive and people get angry. And when people get angry, they will leave you in droves, so you end up flying empty planes, bleeding even more cash.
AC & WJ are surely never going to do any discounting in peak season, unless they do flights at awful hours. What overheads do Flair have ? 5 old 734's which they probably lease or bought for almost nothing. Maintenance might be their biggest cost. Allegiant seems to have done very well out of LAS.

couldn't Flair simply copy Allegiant, just from Canada instead of USA ? Doubt if many business types fly Allegiant, but they seem to be doing very well, in fact the big boys are now copying them with ultra budget economy fares.

Look at USA experience. Spirit- lots of horror stories(some I'm sure have been made up by legacy airlines) & people still flock to them.

In Australia, in SE Qld, apart from BNE, there are other 3 international airports within 2 hours drive. OOL, 90 minutes south, where all the LCC's & ULCC's fly to. MCY 90 minutes north, which is mostly domestic, but has some seasonal flights to AKL & the new Brisbane West Wellcamp, privately owned airport built in record time, that now has CX 747 freighters weekly I think.

The old Southwest rule, was, people to drive for 2 hours to save 5 cents & it's not just the airfare. Car parking at 2ndary airport is almost always much cheaper.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:26 am

USAOZ wrote:
AC & WJ are surely never going to do any discounting in peak season, unless they do flights at awful hours. What overheads do Flair have ? 5 old 734's which they probably lease or bought for almost nothing. Maintenance might be their biggest cost. Allegiant seems to have done very well out of LAS.

AC and WJ easily have the war chest to maintain market share compared to Flair. Flair only runs between most of their destinations a few times a week; for example, in the bookings between Abbotsford and Edmonton, they only run twice a week. WestJet lists 12 flights, daily between Abbotsford and Edmonton, either direct or with a connection. And, they have the feed to fill their flights

There is only so much discounting a ULCC can do in Canada due to very high fees that are imposed. For example, look at this rate from WestJet:

Departing flight(s)
Flight: WS496
Departure: Abbotsford Fri Sep 29, 2017, 8:25 PM
Arrival: Edmonton Fri Sep 29, 2017, 10:44 PM
Guest(s): 1

Price summary

Air transportation charges (ATC): 58.00 CAD
Adult - base fare: 40.00 CAD
Other air transportation charges: 18.00 CAD

Taxes, fees and charges: 10.38 CAD
Air travellers security charge (ATSC) 7.12 CAD
Goods and services tax (GST) 3.26 CAD

Total: 68.38 CAD

The similar Flair flight:
Departure Flight
From: Abbotsford - GVA
To: Edmonton - YEG
Departure: 29 Sep 2017 08:00
Arrival: 29 Sep 2017 10:34

PROMO G:$62.40
Reservation Fee:$0.00

Taxes, Fees and Other Charges
Security Charge ATSC: $7.12
GST/HST Tax: $3.48

Total: $73.00

Taxes and fees for this booking alone accounts for roughly 14% of the total fare (both Edmonton and Abbotsford don't charge AIF's).

But what if the airport charges an AIF? Running a booking between Winnipeg and Edmonton, we get the following:

WestJet:

Departing flight(s)
Flight: WS571
Departure: Winnipeg Fri Sep 29, 2017, 6:05 AM
Arrival: Edmonton Fri Sep 29, 2017, 7:09 AM
Guest(s): 1

Price summary

Air transportation charges (ATC): 63.00 CAD
Adult - base fare: 40.00 CAD
Other air transportation charges: 23.00 CAD

Taxes, fees and charges: 36.88 CAD
Air travellers security charge (ATSC) 7.12 CAD
Airport improvement fee (AIF) 25.00 CAD
Goods and services tax (GST) 4.76 CAD

Total: 99.88 CAD

Flair:

Departure Flight
From: Winnipeg - YWG
To: Edmonton - YEG
Departure: 29 Sep 2017 14:56
Arrival: 29 Sep 2017 16:09

Air Transportation Charges
SALE - X $52.64
Reservation Fee $0.00
Taxes, Fees and Other Charges
YWG Arpt Improve Fee $25.00
Security Charge ATSC $7.12
GST/HST Tax $4.24
Total: $89.00

Flair is not going to win a price war when taxes and fees make up half of the ticket price...

USAOZ wrote:

couldn't Flair simply copy Allegiant, just from Canada instead of USA ? Doubt if many business types fly Allegiant, but they seem to be doing very well, in fact the big boys are now copying them with ultra budget economy fares.

Look at USA experience. Spirit- lots of horror stories(some I'm sure have been made up by legacy airlines) & people still flock to them.

Except the secondary market in Canada is non-existent outside of two limited markets.

And the same type of LCC flying older aircraft has been tried before in Canada; Jetsgo. They went bankrupt after 4 years, and they were a much bigger operation.

Yet another one: CanJet. This one, the owner had deep pockets (it was owned by the IMP Group), but only lasted for 4 years as a scheduled operator and 9 years as a charter service.

And Air Canada and WestJet are already competing easily on price; my example Abbotsford to Edmonton booking showed that WestJet was cheaper than Flair. They already have the market share, with WestJet offering 42 times more flights between the two airports per week. WestJet has the feed from the rest of their network to fill flights as well. What makes you think Flair can effectively compete against WestJet in this instance?

USAOZ wrote:

The old Southwest rule, was, people to drive for 2 hours to save 5 cents & it's not just the airfare. Car parking at 2ndary airport is almost always much cheaper.

Except it doesn't work that way in Canada. For example, there's very little point to fly from Abbotsford when you live in Vancouver proper, when YVR has better transit connections to get to the airport; I can pay $2.20 with my transit card to get to YVR as there is a direct rapid transit line that runs to the airport, and I don't have to worry about parking. What's the point of me driving to Abbotsford?

Same situation with Hamilton; if you live in Toronto proper, getting to Hamilton on Highway 401 is a nightmare during the morning and evening hours. Most people don't bother and prefer flights from Toronto Pearson.
 
USAOZ
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:34 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:39 am

ThePointblank wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
AC & WJ are surely never going to do any discounting in peak season, unless they do flights at awful hours. What overheads do Flair have ? 5 old 734's which they probably lease or bought for almost nothing. Maintenance might be their biggest cost. Allegiant seems to have done very well out of LAS.

AC and WJ easily have the war chest to maintain market share compared to Flair. Flair only runs between most of their destinations a few times a week; for example, in the bookings between Abbotsford and Edmonton, they only run twice a week. WestJet lists 12 flights, daily between Abbotsford and Edmonton, either direct or with a connection. And, they have the feed to fill their flights

There is only so much discounting a ULCC can do in Canada due to very high fees that are imposed. For example, look at this rate from WestJet:

Departing flight(s)
Flight: WS496
Departure: Abbotsford Fri Sep 29, 2017, 8:25 PM
Arrival: Edmonton Fri Sep 29, 2017, 10:44 PM
Guest(s): 1

Price summary

Air transportation charges (ATC): 58.00 CAD
Adult - base fare: 40.00 CAD
Other air transportation charges: 18.00 CAD

Taxes, fees and charges: 10.38 CAD
Air travellers security charge (ATSC) 7.12 CAD
Goods and services tax (GST) 3.26 CAD

Total: 68.38 CAD

The similar Flair flight:
Departure Flight
From: Abbotsford - GVA
To: Edmonton - YEG
Departure: 29 Sep 2017 08:00
Arrival: 29 Sep 2017 10:34

PROMO G:$62.40
Reservation Fee:$0.00

Taxes, Fees and Other Charges
Security Charge ATSC: $7.12
GST/HST Tax: $3.48

Total: $73.00

Taxes and fees for this booking alone accounts for roughly 14% of the total fare (both Edmonton and Abbotsford don't charge AIF's).

But what if the airport charges an AIF? Running a booking between Winnipeg and Edmonton, we get the following:

WestJet:

Departing flight(s)
Flight: WS571
Departure: Winnipeg Fri Sep 29, 2017, 6:05 AM
Arrival: Edmonton Fri Sep 29, 2017, 7:09 AM
Guest(s): 1

Price summary

Air transportation charges (ATC): 63.00 CAD
Adult - base fare: 40.00 CAD
Other air transportation charges: 23.00 CAD

Taxes, fees and charges: 36.88 CAD
Air travellers security charge (ATSC) 7.12 CAD
Airport improvement fee (AIF) 25.00 CAD
Goods and services tax (GST) 4.76 CAD

Total: 99.88 CAD

Flair:

Departure Flight
From: Winnipeg - YWG
To: Edmonton - YEG
Departure: 29 Sep 2017 14:56
Arrival: 29 Sep 2017 16:09

Air Transportation Charges
SALE - X $52.64
Reservation Fee $0.00
Taxes, Fees and Other Charges
YWG Arpt Improve Fee $25.00
Security Charge ATSC $7.12
GST/HST Tax $4.24
Total: $89.00

Flair is not going to win a price war when taxes and fees make up half of the ticket price...

USAOZ wrote:

couldn't Flair simply copy Allegiant, just from Canada instead of USA ? Doubt if many business types fly Allegiant, but they seem to be doing very well, in fact the big boys are now copying them with ultra budget economy fares.

Look at USA experience. Spirit- lots of horror stories(some I'm sure have been made up by legacy airlines) & people still flock to them.

Except the secondary market in Canada is non-existent outside of two limited markets.

And the same type of LCC flying older aircraft has been tried before in Canada; Jetsgo. They went bankrupt after 4 years, and they were a much bigger operation.

Yet another one: CanJet. This one, the owner had deep pockets (it was owned by the IMP Group), but only lasted for 4 years as a scheduled operator and 9 years as a charter service.

And Air Canada and WestJet are already competing easily on price; my example Abbotsford to Edmonton booking showed that WestJet was cheaper than Flair. They already have the market share, with WestJet offering 42 times more flights between the two airports per week. WestJet has the feed from the rest of their network to fill flights as well. What makes you think Flair can effectively compete against WestJet in this instance?

USAOZ wrote:

The old Southwest rule, was, people to drive for 2 hours to save 5 cents & it's not just the airfare. Car parking at 2ndary airport is almost always much cheaper.

Except it doesn't work that way in Canada. For example, there's very little point to fly from Abbotsford when you live in Vancouver proper, when YVR has better transit connections to get to the airport; I can pay $2.20 with my transit card to get to YVR as there is a direct rapid transit line that runs to the airport, and I don't have to worry about parking. What's the point of me driving to Abbotsford?

Same situation with Hamilton; if you live in Toronto proper, getting to Hamilton on Highway 401 is a nightmare during the morning and evening hours. Most people don't bother and prefer flights from Toronto Pearson.
your comparisons only appear to be with the cheapest fares. Fares booked not long before departure on AC or WJ must be very high & in peak season, they must be able to almost charge what they like. Vegas packages might be the way to go, from every airport in Canada with runway big enough to handle a 734. Might only have to do 1 or 2 flights a week from smaller airports.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:52 am

USAOZ wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
AC & WJ are surely never going to do any discounting in peak season, unless they do flights at awful hours. What overheads do Flair have ? 5 old 734's which they probably lease or bought for almost nothing. Maintenance might be their biggest cost. Allegiant seems to have done very well out of LAS.

AC and WJ easily have the war chest to maintain market share compared to Flair. Flair only runs between most of their destinations a few times a week; for example, in the bookings between Abbotsford and Edmonton, they only run twice a week. WestJet lists 12 flights, daily between Abbotsford and Edmonton, either direct or with a connection. And, they have the feed to fill their flights

There is only so much discounting a ULCC can do in Canada due to very high fees that are imposed. For example, look at this rate from WestJet:

Departing flight(s)
Flight: WS496
Departure: Abbotsford Fri Sep 29, 2017, 8:25 PM
Arrival: Edmonton Fri Sep 29, 2017, 10:44 PM
Guest(s): 1

Price summary

Air transportation charges (ATC): 58.00 CAD
Adult - base fare: 40.00 CAD
Other air transportation charges: 18.00 CAD

Taxes, fees and charges: 10.38 CAD
Air travellers security charge (ATSC) 7.12 CAD
Goods and services tax (GST) 3.26 CAD

Total: 68.38 CAD

The similar Flair flight:
Departure Flight
From: Abbotsford - GVA
To: Edmonton - YEG
Departure: 29 Sep 2017 08:00
Arrival: 29 Sep 2017 10:34

PROMO G:$62.40
Reservation Fee:$0.00

Taxes, Fees and Other Charges
Security Charge ATSC: $7.12
GST/HST Tax: $3.48

Total: $73.00

Taxes and fees for this booking alone accounts for roughly 14% of the total fare (both Edmonton and Abbotsford don't charge AIF's).

But what if the airport charges an AIF? Running a booking between Winnipeg and Edmonton, we get the following:

WestJet:

Departing flight(s)
Flight: WS571
Departure: Winnipeg Fri Sep 29, 2017, 6:05 AM
Arrival: Edmonton Fri Sep 29, 2017, 7:09 AM
Guest(s): 1

Price summary

Air transportation charges (ATC): 63.00 CAD
Adult - base fare: 40.00 CAD
Other air transportation charges: 23.00 CAD

Taxes, fees and charges: 36.88 CAD
Air travellers security charge (ATSC) 7.12 CAD
Airport improvement fee (AIF) 25.00 CAD
Goods and services tax (GST) 4.76 CAD

Total: 99.88 CAD

Flair:

Departure Flight
From: Winnipeg - YWG
To: Edmonton - YEG
Departure: 29 Sep 2017 14:56
Arrival: 29 Sep 2017 16:09

Air Transportation Charges
SALE - X $52.64
Reservation Fee $0.00
Taxes, Fees and Other Charges
YWG Arpt Improve Fee $25.00
Security Charge ATSC $7.12
GST/HST Tax $4.24
Total: $89.00

Flair is not going to win a price war when taxes and fees make up half of the ticket price...

USAOZ wrote:

couldn't Flair simply copy Allegiant, just from Canada instead of USA ? Doubt if many business types fly Allegiant, but they seem to be doing very well, in fact the big boys are now copying them with ultra budget economy fares.

Look at USA experience. Spirit- lots of horror stories(some I'm sure have been made up by legacy airlines) & people still flock to them.

Except the secondary market in Canada is non-existent outside of two limited markets.

And the same type of LCC flying older aircraft has been tried before in Canada; Jetsgo. They went bankrupt after 4 years, and they were a much bigger operation.

Yet another one: CanJet. This one, the owner had deep pockets (it was owned by the IMP Group), but only lasted for 4 years as a scheduled operator and 9 years as a charter service.

And Air Canada and WestJet are already competing easily on price; my example Abbotsford to Edmonton booking showed that WestJet was cheaper than Flair. They already have the market share, with WestJet offering 42 times more flights between the two airports per week. WestJet has the feed from the rest of their network to fill flights as well. What makes you think Flair can effectively compete against WestJet in this instance?

USAOZ wrote:

The old Southwest rule, was, people to drive for 2 hours to save 5 cents & it's not just the airfare. Car parking at 2ndary airport is almost always much cheaper.

Except it doesn't work that way in Canada. For example, there's very little point to fly from Abbotsford when you live in Vancouver proper, when YVR has better transit connections to get to the airport; I can pay $2.20 with my transit card to get to YVR as there is a direct rapid transit line that runs to the airport, and I don't have to worry about parking. What's the point of me driving to Abbotsford?

Same situation with Hamilton; if you live in Toronto proper, getting to Hamilton on Highway 401 is a nightmare during the morning and evening hours. Most people don't bother and prefer flights from Toronto Pearson.
your comparisons only appear to be with the cheapest fares. Fares booked not long before departure on AC or WJ must be very high & in peak season, they must be able to almost charge what they like. Vegas packages might be the way to go, from every airport in Canada with runway big enough to handle a 734. Might only have to do 1 or 2 flights a week from smaller airports.

Except Flair does the same thing:

From: Abbotsford - GVA
To: Edmonton - YEG
Departure: 18 Sep 2017 13:35
Arrival: 18 Sep 2017 16:09
Fare: $230.02
GST/HST Tax: $11.50
Total: $249.00

WestJet:
Flight: WS450 | WS349
Departure: Abbotsford Mon Sep 18, 2017, 6:00 AM
Connection: Calgary
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 8:10 AM
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 10:00 AM
Arrival: Edmonton Mon Sep 18, 2017, 10:48 AM
Guest(s): 1

Price summary
Air transportation charges (ATC): 198.00 CAD
Taxes, fees and charges: 17.38 CAD
Total: 215.38 CAD

That's less than a week away. Still cheaper with WestJet. And I get a choice between 12 different options for the flight with WestJet.

Oh, and WestJet allows a personal item plus a carry on for free. Flair says you only get a personal item, but you will have to pay for a carry on. It is anywhere from $31 if bought online to $92 at the gate to bring a carry on with you.
 
drgmobile
Posts: 857
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:06 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:47 am

ThePointblank wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
Yes, I would think that these flights would only be attractive to people who want to fly point-to-point, at a cheap price, who would be OK with an inconvenient schedule. These flights would not be popular for business people, those that want connections, and those that need to fly on specific days and times. There is a limited market for such flights, I believe. I think Flair's strategy is to purposely offer only a few flights a week to catch the people that are purely price sensitive. I think if they offered more frequent flights, they would definitely be in a price war with AC and Westjet and they would be put out of business.


you said

There is a limited market for such flights

Define limited ?

New Leaf according to one of the reports above, said they carried over 376,600 pax on over 3090 flights. Assuming that 376,600 pax in 3090 flights that's load factor of 121.88 pax per flight. Assuming each aircraft had 156 Y seats(some may have been in another seating config) that's over a 78% load factor.

Assuming Flair are a very low cost operation. As they acquire more aircraft, their costs per seat will be reduced. Maybe they just need to find routes that no other airlines flies nonstop & do them a couple of times a week. Think Allegiant started doing flights to LAS from 1 horse towns no one had even heard of, once or twice a week. The casinos must have almost given them rooms for virtually nothing, so they packaged the flights with hotel rooms in Vegas. The casinos make there money out of gambling/food/drinks etc. not the hotel rooms.


There are plenty of 2ndary airports in USA looking for business. Many people love avoiding big hubs, which can be stressful & time consuming.

Look eg. at DEN vs EGE. Denver is a zoo. They don't even have rental cars at the airport, which to me, is a big design mistake. They surely could have had their underground train go to car rental depots like at SFO.

It take a long time to get in & out of DEN. EGE, by comparison, is an fantastic airport. Rental cars are parked 50 metres from baggage claim. When departing EGE many people drive their rental car, right up to terminal door, unload their luggage & as long as not alone, leave luggage with other person & then go & park their rental. Have even seen people travelling alone, leave their rental car straight outside the terminal, go & check in & then go back & move their rental car.


No stress, no hassle. Try doing that at a big busy airport & you'd be towed away in 5 mins !!! Even the TSA at EGE aren't stressed.

& if you are going skiing, EGE is much closer to the resorts, than DEN.

Flying from secondary airports in Canada has been tried before, and the end result is that the airline usually either folds up, or moves to the primary airport instead.

WestJet tried having Hamilton as their Eastern hub in their early years, but could not make it work; they eventually moved to Toronto Pearson, because that's where the passengers are. As an business, ignoring where your potential customer base is located is done at your own peril.


When Air Canada and Canadian Airlines merged, WestJet's obvious opportunity was to go up market and fill the void for a mainline alternative to Air Canada. It did so cautiously, moving slowly from its original model to evolve into the more complex operation it has become today but it isn't surprising that the company made the move from Hamilton to Toronto Pearson when it did. Flair and Canada Jetlines are entering a very different market environment and they're going after the customers at the bottom end of the market that WestJet's evolution opened up.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:12 am

drgmobile wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
USAOZ wrote:

you said

There is a limited market for such flights

Define limited ?

New Leaf according to one of the reports above, said they carried over 376,600 pax on over 3090 flights. Assuming that 376,600 pax in 3090 flights that's load factor of 121.88 pax per flight. Assuming each aircraft had 156 Y seats(some may have been in another seating config) that's over a 78% load factor.

Assuming Flair are a very low cost operation. As they acquire more aircraft, their costs per seat will be reduced. Maybe they just need to find routes that no other airlines flies nonstop & do them a couple of times a week. Think Allegiant started doing flights to LAS from 1 horse towns no one had even heard of, once or twice a week. The casinos must have almost given them rooms for virtually nothing, so they packaged the flights with hotel rooms in Vegas. The casinos make there money out of gambling/food/drinks etc. not the hotel rooms.


There are plenty of 2ndary airports in USA looking for business. Many people love avoiding big hubs, which can be stressful & time consuming.

Look eg. at DEN vs EGE. Denver is a zoo. They don't even have rental cars at the airport, which to me, is a big design mistake. They surely could have had their underground train go to car rental depots like at SFO.

It take a long time to get in & out of DEN. EGE, by comparison, is an fantastic airport. Rental cars are parked 50 metres from baggage claim. When departing EGE many people drive their rental car, right up to terminal door, unload their luggage & as long as not alone, leave luggage with other person & then go & park their rental. Have even seen people travelling alone, leave their rental car straight outside the terminal, go & check in & then go back & move their rental car.


No stress, no hassle. Try doing that at a big busy airport & you'd be towed away in 5 mins !!! Even the TSA at EGE aren't stressed.

& if you are going skiing, EGE is much closer to the resorts, than DEN.

Flying from secondary airports in Canada has been tried before, and the end result is that the airline usually either folds up, or moves to the primary airport instead.

WestJet tried having Hamilton as their Eastern hub in their early years, but could not make it work; they eventually moved to Toronto Pearson, because that's where the passengers are. As an business, ignoring where your potential customer base is located is done at your own peril.


When Air Canada and Canadian Airlines merged, WestJet's obvious opportunity was to go up market and fill the void for a mainline alternative to Air Canada. It did so cautiously, moving slowly from its original model to evolve into the more complex operation it has become today but it isn't surprising that the company made the move from Hamilton to Toronto Pearson when it did. Flair and Canada Jetlines are entering a very different market environment and they're going after the customers at the bottom end of the market that WestJet's evolution opened up.

Except both CanJet and Jetsgo tried the same thing and they both failed.

There are no secondary markets in Canada outside of two very limited ones; Canada doesn't have the population size and density to make it work.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 611
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:24 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
drgmobile wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Flying from secondary airports in Canada has been tried before, and the end result is that the airline usually either folds up, or moves to the primary airport instead.

WestJet tried having Hamilton as their Eastern hub in their early years, but could not make it work; they eventually moved to Toronto Pearson, because that's where the passengers are. As an business, ignoring where your potential customer base is located is done at your own peril.


When Air Canada and Canadian Airlines merged, WestJet's obvious opportunity was to go up market and fill the void for a mainline alternative to Air Canada. It did so cautiously, moving slowly from its original model to evolve into the more complex operation it has become today but it isn't surprising that the company made the move from Hamilton to Toronto Pearson when it did. Flair and Canada Jetlines are entering a very different market environment and they're going after the customers at the bottom end of the market that WestJet's evolution opened up.

Except both CanJet and Jetsgo tried the same thing and they both failed.

There are no secondary markets in Canada outside of two very limited ones; Canada doesn't have the population size and density to make it work.


Jetsgo did no such thing, nor did CanJet. Jetsgo had a full-fledged hub at YYZ with zero YHM service and YHM was a spoke for C6, not a hub. Both were incompetently run. Ken Rowe hired his family to run his toy airline CanJet, not people with any real knowledge as to how to run an airline. When C6 expanded west, it was out of YYZ. It should have been out of YHM and/or YOW.

No way. What Canada has are two currently exploited secondary airports. YEG, YOW, YWG, YQB, YHZ, etc. are all secondary, yet large (by Canadian standards) markets. A place like YOW has been completely neglected in terms of any meaningful capacity additions for over five years. Growth has not been due to a lack of demand, but a lack of new capacity, which the AC/WS duopoly has mostly deployed into the big 4 airports.

The fact of the matter is, there are 3 million people in the Golden Horseshoe that are closer to YHM and/or YKF than to YYZ. A well executed business plan can make a go of it to attract the Frontier/Allegiant style of passenger that cares about one thing only - the price of their seat. Market studies are indicating that AC/WS are leaving at least 10 million ULCC pax on the table, even with the disadvantage of Canadian taxes and AIFs. That's plenty for a Canadian "Spirit 2.0" to go after.

It's interesting how retaliatory WS have been/are towards New Leaf and now Flair, whereas AC have largely ignored them. Interesting how 'caring' WestJet are the predator nowadays, whereas they used to cry foul over AC doing the same to them back in the day. It just goes to show WS want the high fare duopoly back. AC thus far I think have been too focused on international expansion to pay any attention to ULCCs.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:52 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
drgmobile wrote:

When Air Canada and Canadian Airlines merged, WestJet's obvious opportunity was to go up market and fill the void for a mainline alternative to Air Canada. It did so cautiously, moving slowly from its original model to evolve into the more complex operation it has become today but it isn't surprising that the company made the move from Hamilton to Toronto Pearson when it did. Flair and Canada Jetlines are entering a very different market environment and they're going after the customers at the bottom end of the market that WestJet's evolution opened up.

Except both CanJet and Jetsgo tried the same thing and they both failed.

There are no secondary markets in Canada outside of two very limited ones; Canada doesn't have the population size and density to make it work.


Jetsgo did no such thing, nor did CanJet. Jetsgo had a full-fledged hub at YYZ with zero YHM service and YHM was a spoke for C6, not a hub. Both were incompetently run. Ken Rowe hired his family to run his toy airline CanJet, not people with any real knowledge as to how to run an airline. When C6 expanded west, it was out of YYZ. It should have been out of YHM and/or YOW.

No way. What Canada has are two currently exploited secondary airports. YEG, YOW, YWG, YQB, YHZ, etc. are all secondary, yet large (by Canadian standards) markets. A place like YOW has been completely neglected in terms of any meaningful capacity additions for over five years. Growth has not been due to a lack of demand, but a lack of new capacity, which the AC/WS duopoly has mostly deployed into the big 4 airports.

The fact of the matter is, there are 3 million people in the Golden Horseshoe that are closer to YHM and/or YKF than to YYZ. A well executed business plan can make a go of it to attract the Frontier/Allegiant style of passenger that cares about one thing only - the price of their seat. Market studies are indicating that AC/WS are leaving at least 10 million ULCC pax on the table, even with the disadvantage of Canadian taxes and AIFs. That's plenty for a Canadian "Spirit 2.0" to go after.

It's interesting how retaliatory WS have been/are towards New Leaf and now Flair, whereas AC have largely ignored them. Interesting how 'caring' WestJet are the predator nowadays, whereas they used to cry foul over AC doing the same to them back in the day. It just goes to show WS want the high fare duopoly back. AC thus far I think have been too focused on international expansion to pay any attention to ULCCs.

Air Canada has actually moved quietly to compete with ULCC's; they've been cutting their own costs, discounting fares, and they've introduced Rogue as a competitor to thwart ULCC's from any international aspirations, along with competing with the current travel and leisure airlines (such as Air Transat). While Rogue has focused on international and trans-border operations, Air Canada has tested the use of its Rouge subsidiary on some domestic routes and could deploy Rogue, as appropriate, to compete with any of the new ULCC entrants, and with WestJet's planned ULCC.

Air Canada and WestJet won't ignore Flair; both have already made significant moves against any ULCC competition by introducing their own services to secondary airports and discounting fares which shows they mean business. Leisure passengers still comprise the bulk of WestJet’s passenger base. So it is not likely to cede potential customers to upstart airlines willingly. WestJet's management have already stated that its product unbundling was driven by a need to be more competitive. Both Air Canada and WestJet will use their relative heft to compete fiercely against the new airlines trying to make a name for themselves in the Canadian market.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 611
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:24 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Except both CanJet and Jetsgo tried the same thing and they both failed.

There are no secondary markets in Canada outside of two very limited ones; Canada doesn't have the population size and density to make it work.


Jetsgo did no such thing, nor did CanJet. Jetsgo had a full-fledged hub at YYZ with zero YHM service and YHM was a spoke for C6, not a hub. Both were incompetently run. Ken Rowe hired his family to run his toy airline CanJet, not people with any real knowledge as to how to run an airline. When C6 expanded west, it was out of YYZ. It should have been out of YHM and/or YOW.

No way. What Canada has are two currently exploited secondary airports. YEG, YOW, YWG, YQB, YHZ, etc. are all secondary, yet large (by Canadian standards) markets. A place like YOW has been completely neglected in terms of any meaningful capacity additions for over five years. Growth has not been due to a lack of demand, but a lack of new capacity, which the AC/WS duopoly has mostly deployed into the big 4 airports.

The fact of the matter is, there are 3 million people in the Golden Horseshoe that are closer to YHM and/or YKF than to YYZ. A well executed business plan can make a go of it to attract the Frontier/Allegiant style of passenger that cares about one thing only - the price of their seat. Market studies are indicating that AC/WS are leaving at least 10 million ULCC pax on the table, even with the disadvantage of Canadian taxes and AIFs. That's plenty for a Canadian "Spirit 2.0" to go after.

It's interesting how retaliatory WS have been/are towards New Leaf and now Flair, whereas AC have largely ignored them. Interesting how 'caring' WestJet are the predator nowadays, whereas they used to cry foul over AC doing the same to them back in the day. It just goes to show WS want the high fare duopoly back. AC thus far I think have been too focused on international expansion to pay any attention to ULCCs.

Air Canada has actually moved quietly to compete with ULCC's; they've been cutting their own costs, discounting fares, and they've introduced Rogue as a competitor to thwart ULCC's from any international aspirations, along with competing with the current travel and leisure airlines (such as Air Transat). While Rogue has focused on international and trans-border operations, Air Canada has tested the use of its Rouge subsidiary on some domestic routes and could deploy Rogue, as appropriate, to compete with any of the new ULCC entrants, and with WestJet's planned ULCC.

Air Canada and WestJet won't ignore Flair; both have already made significant moves against any ULCC competition by introducing their own services to secondary airports and discounting fares which shows they mean business. Leisure passengers still comprise the bulk of WestJet’s passenger base. So it is not likely to cede potential customers to upstart airlines willingly. WestJet's management have already stated that its product unbundling was driven by a need to be more competitive. Both Air Canada and WestJet will use their relative heft to compete fiercely against the new airlines trying to make a name for themselves in the Canadian market.


Rouge was largely created to get costs low enough to compete with WS, TS and WG on leisure routes and to enter routes previously deemed not viable on mainline. Given the 50 plane cap placed on Rouge, they're just about tapped-out, save increasing red-eye utilization on the narrowbody fleet. In addition, even the domestic routes only operate to/from AC's 4 hubs and mostly replaced leisure-heavy domestic mainline routes like YYG, YLW, etc.. There's a lot of untapped stimulation outside of those cities they're ignoring. Think a route like YOW-YWG that has less capacity on it today, than 25 years ago, even though domestic traffic at both airports has grown by +50% since then.

The re-entering into YXX-YYZ by using Rouge is a rare example of AC somewhat going after the ULCC (i.e. Flair).

What you have said, is exactly why I have said a well executed and capitalized business plan is required to succeed. Both Jetsgo and CanJet were jokes with the wrong route networks and the wrong aircraft types. Jetlines appears to be taking that approach by not jumping the gun, hiring credible executives with airline experience, etc..
 
USAOZ
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:34 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:56 am

so how many airports in Canada can handle a 734 ? (apart from YVR, YYC, YYZ, YUL, YOW). There must be a lot that could support a weekly flight or 2 to LAS ? Am in Australia, but vaguely remember some airlines using YMX (Air Transat maybe). Is YMX cheaper than using YUL ?

Which Canadian airports currently have nonstop flights to LAS ?

Does YLW or YXX have nonstops to LAS ?

People will drive up to a few hours to save 5 cents, especially when they are informed about the costs of car parking, which is usually cheaper at smaller airports.

A cross border version of Allegiant ?

AC & WJ don't do low frequency like Allegiant, do they ?
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:43 am

Dominion301 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Jetsgo did no such thing, nor did CanJet. Jetsgo had a full-fledged hub at YYZ with zero YHM service and YHM was a spoke for C6, not a hub. Both were incompetently run. Ken Rowe hired his family to run his toy airline CanJet, not people with any real knowledge as to how to run an airline. When C6 expanded west, it was out of YYZ. It should have been out of YHM and/or YOW.

No way. What Canada has are two currently exploited secondary airports. YEG, YOW, YWG, YQB, YHZ, etc. are all secondary, yet large (by Canadian standards) markets. A place like YOW has been completely neglected in terms of any meaningful capacity additions for over five years. Growth has not been due to a lack of demand, but a lack of new capacity, which the AC/WS duopoly has mostly deployed into the big 4 airports.

The fact of the matter is, there are 3 million people in the Golden Horseshoe that are closer to YHM and/or YKF than to YYZ. A well executed business plan can make a go of it to attract the Frontier/Allegiant style of passenger that cares about one thing only - the price of their seat. Market studies are indicating that AC/WS are leaving at least 10 million ULCC pax on the table, even with the disadvantage of Canadian taxes and AIFs. That's plenty for a Canadian "Spirit 2.0" to go after.

It's interesting how retaliatory WS have been/are towards New Leaf and now Flair, whereas AC have largely ignored them. Interesting how 'caring' WestJet are the predator nowadays, whereas they used to cry foul over AC doing the same to them back in the day. It just goes to show WS want the high fare duopoly back. AC thus far I think have been too focused on international expansion to pay any attention to ULCCs.

Air Canada has actually moved quietly to compete with ULCC's; they've been cutting their own costs, discounting fares, and they've introduced Rogue as a competitor to thwart ULCC's from any international aspirations, along with competing with the current travel and leisure airlines (such as Air Transat). While Rogue has focused on international and trans-border operations, Air Canada has tested the use of its Rouge subsidiary on some domestic routes and could deploy Rogue, as appropriate, to compete with any of the new ULCC entrants, and with WestJet's planned ULCC.

Air Canada and WestJet won't ignore Flair; both have already made significant moves against any ULCC competition by introducing their own services to secondary airports and discounting fares which shows they mean business. Leisure passengers still comprise the bulk of WestJet’s passenger base. So it is not likely to cede potential customers to upstart airlines willingly. WestJet's management have already stated that its product unbundling was driven by a need to be more competitive. Both Air Canada and WestJet will use their relative heft to compete fiercely against the new airlines trying to make a name for themselves in the Canadian market.


Rouge was largely created to get costs low enough to compete with WS, TS and WG on leisure routes and to enter routes previously deemed not viable on mainline. Given the 50 plane cap placed on Rouge, they're just about tapped-out, save increasing red-eye utilization on the narrowbody fleet. In addition, even the domestic routes only operate to/from AC's 4 hubs and mostly replaced leisure-heavy domestic mainline routes like YYG, YLW, etc.. There's a lot of untapped stimulation outside of those cities they're ignoring. Think a route like YOW-YWG that has less capacity on it today, than 25 years ago, even though domestic traffic at both airports has grown by +50% since then.

The re-entering into YXX-YYZ by using Rouge is a rare example of AC somewhat going after the ULCC (i.e. Flair).

What you have said, is exactly why I have said a well executed and capitalized business plan is required to succeed. Both Jetsgo and CanJet were jokes with the wrong route networks and the wrong aircraft types. Jetlines appears to be taking that approach by not jumping the gun, hiring credible executives with airline experience, etc..

If you haven't noticed the news, Air Canada has gotten a new agreement about the size of Rogue's fleet:

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news ... ots-486071

In the release, Air Canada specifically mentions this:

The amendments support Air Canada's strategic business plan for profitable growth network wide, for both mainline and Rouge in a proportionate manner based on overall growth. Specifically, the amendments provide Air Canada with the ability to expand the North American narrowbody fleet operated by Rouge according to an agreed-upon formula by Air Canada's pilots that enables the airline to expand its presence in certain regional markets and to compete effectively with emerging North American Ultra Low Cost Carriers (ULCCs).
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:01 am

USAOZ wrote:
so how many airports in Canada can handle a 734 ? (apart from YVR, YYC, YYZ, YUL, YOW). There must be a lot that could support a weekly flight or 2 to LAS ? Am in Australia, but vaguely remember some airlines using YMX (Air Transat maybe). Is YMX cheaper than using YUL ?

Which Canadian airports currently have nonstop flights to LAS ?

Does YLW or YXX have nonstops to LAS ?

People will drive up to a few hours to save 5 cents, especially when they are informed about the costs of car parking, which is usually cheaper at smaller airports.

A cross border version of Allegiant ?

AC & WJ don't do low frequency like Allegiant, do they ?

The problem is that the smaller airports are already served by the regional affiliates of Air Canada and Rogue. While a ULCC might be able to offer a flight between YLW and LAS, YLW doesn't have US preclearance; that means, for a direct flight between YLW and LAS, the passengers must go through US customs at LAS.

WestJet and Air Canada on the other hand, will route those passengers from YLW via another airport, such as YVR or YYC, and have the passengers connect and go through preclearance there, so they don't have to go through customs at LAS. Plus, they would have daily service flying from all of the airports involved either directly on mainline, or via their regional operators, meaning that potential customers have options.

Again, there's no point of driving to Abbotsford if you live in Vancouver proper or in any of the nearby suburbs; YVR is connected directly with the Canada Line rapid transit system, and that goes directly into downtown Vancouver with stops enroute. Most people can pay the fare for transit, which is considerably cheaper than driving and finding any parking out at Abbotsford, and you can get to YVR quicker via transit than you can driving out to Abbotsford.

And YMX no longer serves passenger flights; the terminal was demolished in 2014, and today, YMX only serves cargo airlines.
 
USAOZ
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:34 am

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:19 am

ThePointblank wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
so how many airports in Canada can handle a 734 ? (apart from YVR, YYC, YYZ, YUL, YOW). There must be a lot that could support a weekly flight or 2 to LAS ? Am in Australia, but vaguely remember some airlines using YMX (Air Transat maybe). Is YMX cheaper than using YUL ?

Which Canadian airports currently have nonstop flights to LAS ?

Does YLW or YXX have nonstops to LAS ?

People will drive up to a few hours to save 5 cents, especially when they are informed about the costs of car parking, which is usually cheaper at smaller airports.

A cross border version of Allegiant ?

AC & WJ don't do low frequency like Allegiant, do they ?

The problem is that the smaller airports are already served by the regional affiliates of Air Canada and Rogue. While a ULCC might be able to offer a flight between YLW and LAS, YLW doesn't have US preclearance; that means, for a direct flight between YLW and LAS, the passengers must go through US customs at LAS.

WestJet and Air Canada on the other hand, will route those passengers from YLW via another airport, such as YVR or YYC, and have the passengers connect and go through preclearance there, so they don't have to go through customs at LAS. Plus, they would have daily service flying from all of the airports involved either directly on mainline, or via their regional operators, meaning that potential customers have options.

Again, there's no point of driving to Abbotsford if you live in Vancouver proper or in any of the nearby suburbs; YVR is connected directly with the Canada Line rapid transit system, and that goes directly into downtown Vancouver with stops enroute. Most people can pay the fare for transit, which is considerably cheaper than driving and finding any parking out at Abbotsford, and you can get to YVR quicker via transit than you can driving out to Abbotsford.

And YMX no longer serves passenger flights; the terminal was demolished in 2014, and today, YMX only serves cargo airlines.
pre-clearance ? Nonstops are always better & mostly cheaper than going via anywhere. They have to clear us customs/imm some where !!! Parking at YVR is expensive. Presume parking at YXX is much cheaper. Apparently lots of Canadians drive to Bellingham to save a dollar. Don't need much for 156 seat aircraft. A small shed could handle pax at YMX or anywhere else. No one wants to sit around awful airports for any longer than they have to.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:12 am

USAOZ wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
so how many airports in Canada can handle a 734 ? (apart from YVR, YYC, YYZ, YUL, YOW). There must be a lot that could support a weekly flight or 2 to LAS ? Am in Australia, but vaguely remember some airlines using YMX (Air Transat maybe). Is YMX cheaper than using YUL ?

Which Canadian airports currently have nonstop flights to LAS ?

Does YLW or YXX have nonstops to LAS ?

People will drive up to a few hours to save 5 cents, especially when they are informed about the costs of car parking, which is usually cheaper at smaller airports.

A cross border version of Allegiant ?

AC & WJ don't do low frequency like Allegiant, do they ?

The problem is that the smaller airports are already served by the regional affiliates of Air Canada and Rogue. While a ULCC might be able to offer a flight between YLW and LAS, YLW doesn't have US preclearance; that means, for a direct flight between YLW and LAS, the passengers must go through US customs at LAS.

WestJet and Air Canada on the other hand, will route those passengers from YLW via another airport, such as YVR or YYC, and have the passengers connect and go through preclearance there, so they don't have to go through customs at LAS. Plus, they would have daily service flying from all of the airports involved either directly on mainline, or via their regional operators, meaning that potential customers have options.

Again, there's no point of driving to Abbotsford if you live in Vancouver proper or in any of the nearby suburbs; YVR is connected directly with the Canada Line rapid transit system, and that goes directly into downtown Vancouver with stops enroute. Most people can pay the fare for transit, which is considerably cheaper than driving and finding any parking out at Abbotsford, and you can get to YVR quicker via transit than you can driving out to Abbotsford.

And YMX no longer serves passenger flights; the terminal was demolished in 2014, and today, YMX only serves cargo airlines.
pre-clearance ? Nonstops are always better & mostly cheaper than going via anywhere. They have to clear us customs/imm some where !!! Parking at YVR is expensive. Presume parking at YXX is much cheaper. Apparently lots of Canadians drive to Bellingham to save a dollar. Don't need much for 156 seat aircraft. A small shed could handle pax at YMX or anywhere else. No one wants to sit around awful airports for any longer than they have to.


1. Preclearance is a major convenience for travellers to the US; it means that a traveller could clear customs in Canada, which means that the flight would be treated as a domestic US flight upon arrival. That means the person can skip US Customs in the US, which means they can get to their destination quicker and with less hassle.

2. Most people don't give a damn about non-stops vs stops if the price is right.

3. Abbotsford Airport has limited onsite parking and almost no transit connections. YVR, while parking is expensive, is easier to get to via public transit. I don't need to drive to YVR, I can take transit, and I can probably get to YVR quicker with transit than I can driving there from most areas of Vancouver.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 611
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:14 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Air Canada has actually moved quietly to compete with ULCC's; they've been cutting their own costs, discounting fares, and they've introduced Rogue as a competitor to thwart ULCC's from any international aspirations, along with competing with the current travel and leisure airlines (such as Air Transat). While Rogue has focused on international and trans-border operations, Air Canada has tested the use of its Rouge subsidiary on some domestic routes and could deploy Rogue, as appropriate, to compete with any of the new ULCC entrants, and with WestJet's planned ULCC.

Air Canada and WestJet won't ignore Flair; both have already made significant moves against any ULCC competition by introducing their own services to secondary airports and discounting fares which shows they mean business. Leisure passengers still comprise the bulk of WestJet’s passenger base. So it is not likely to cede potential customers to upstart airlines willingly. WestJet's management have already stated that its product unbundling was driven by a need to be more competitive. Both Air Canada and WestJet will use their relative heft to compete fiercely against the new airlines trying to make a name for themselves in the Canadian market.


Rouge was largely created to get costs low enough to compete with WS, TS and WG on leisure routes and to enter routes previously deemed not viable on mainline. Given the 50 plane cap placed on Rouge, they're just about tapped-out, save increasing red-eye utilization on the narrowbody fleet. In addition, even the domestic routes only operate to/from AC's 4 hubs and mostly replaced leisure-heavy domestic mainline routes like YYG, YLW, etc.. There's a lot of untapped stimulation outside of those cities they're ignoring. Think a route like YOW-YWG that has less capacity on it today, than 25 years ago, even though domestic traffic at both airports has grown by +50% since then.

The re-entering into YXX-YYZ by using Rouge is a rare example of AC somewhat going after the ULCC (i.e. Flair).

What you have said, is exactly why I have said a well executed and capitalized business plan is required to succeed. Both Jetsgo and CanJet were jokes with the wrong route networks and the wrong aircraft types. Jetlines appears to be taking that approach by not jumping the gun, hiring credible executives with airline experience, etc..

If you haven't noticed the news, Air Canada has gotten a new agreement about the size of Rogue's fleet:

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news ... ots-486071

In the release, Air Canada specifically mentions this:

The amendments support Air Canada's strategic business plan for profitable growth network wide, for both mainline and Rouge in a proportionate manner based on overall growth. Specifically, the amendments provide Air Canada with the ability to expand the North American narrowbody fleet operated by Rouge according to an agreed-upon formula by Air Canada's pilots that enables the airline to expand its presence in certain regional markets and to compete effectively with emerging North American Ultra Low Cost Carriers (ULCCs).


I hadn't noticed that brand-new announcement, so thanks for sharing. No doubt growth at Rouge is contingent upon growth at mainline.

As for further up regarding preclearance, while it's preferred, if you're flying transborder out of a non-preclearance airport, preclearance's primary benefit is to permit for seamless US 'domestic' connections. On a Canada-US non-hub leisure route, virtually everyone is O&D, making preclearance a non-issue.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 2836
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:02 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Rouge was largely created to get costs low enough to compete with WS, TS and WG on leisure routes and to enter routes previously deemed not viable on mainline. Given the 50 plane cap placed on Rouge, they're just about tapped-out, save increasing red-eye utilization on the narrowbody fleet. In addition, even the domestic routes only operate to/from AC's 4 hubs and mostly replaced leisure-heavy domestic mainline routes like YYG, YLW, etc.. There's a lot of untapped stimulation outside of those cities they're ignoring. Think a route like YOW-YWG that has less capacity on it today, than 25 years ago, even though domestic traffic at both airports has grown by +50% since then.

The re-entering into YXX-YYZ by using Rouge is a rare example of AC somewhat going after the ULCC (i.e. Flair).

What you have said, is exactly why I have said a well executed and capitalized business plan is required to succeed. Both Jetsgo and CanJet were jokes with the wrong route networks and the wrong aircraft types. Jetlines appears to be taking that approach by not jumping the gun, hiring credible executives with airline experience, etc..

If you haven't noticed the news, Air Canada has gotten a new agreement about the size of Rogue's fleet:

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news ... ots-486071

In the release, Air Canada specifically mentions this:

The amendments support Air Canada's strategic business plan for profitable growth network wide, for both mainline and Rouge in a proportionate manner based on overall growth. Specifically, the amendments provide Air Canada with the ability to expand the North American narrowbody fleet operated by Rouge according to an agreed-upon formula by Air Canada's pilots that enables the airline to expand its presence in certain regional markets and to compete effectively with emerging North American Ultra Low Cost Carriers (ULCCs).


I hadn't noticed that brand-new announcement, so thanks for sharing. No doubt growth at Rouge is contingent upon growth at mainline.

As for further up regarding preclearance, while it's preferred, if you're flying transborder out of a non-preclearance airport, preclearance's primary benefit is to permit for seamless US 'domestic' connections. On a Canada-US non-hub leisure route, virtually everyone is O&D, making preclearance a non-issue.

Preclearance means that you can skip the immigration line in the US, so you aren't waiting in line with your baggage, waiting to be cleared by CBP behind hundreds of other travelers. You can start your vacation immediately once you get off the plane.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 611
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:44 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
If you haven't noticed the news, Air Canada has gotten a new agreement about the size of Rogue's fleet:

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news ... ots-486071

In the release, Air Canada specifically mentions this:



I hadn't noticed that brand-new announcement, so thanks for sharing. No doubt growth at Rouge is contingent upon growth at mainline.

As for further up regarding preclearance, while it's preferred, if you're flying transborder out of a non-preclearance airport, preclearance's primary benefit is to permit for seamless US 'domestic' connections. On a Canada-US non-hub leisure route, virtually everyone is O&D, making preclearance a non-issue.

Preclearance means that you can skip the immigration line in the US, so you aren't waiting in line with your baggage, waiting to be cleared by CBP behind hundreds of other travelers. You can start your vacation immediately once you get off the plane.


It does, but if you're departing from a non-preclearance airport nonstop to a US leisure destination, wouldn't you rather put up with the 10-20 minutes extra processing time on US soil than waste hours flying to a Canadian hub just to preclear?
 
jmt18325
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat May 07, 2016 6:08 pm

Re: Canada's Newleaf assets bought by Flair

Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:46 pm

Preclearance during Can-US connections is more of a hassle than anything.

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