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Finn350
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:53 pm

frigatebird wrote:
Also interested in how the claim "same seats as the A321neo" is meant. IMHO, this is physically not possible - both numbers wise and by width.


Boeing's calculations are based on a two-class seating of 188 seats and 800 nmi sector length for both planes. Obviously they have selected most favourable conditions to them. In Boeing's graph, 737-9 MAX is more efficient than A321neo, but in real world it is the other way around. Interesting to see if the -10 MAX is able to close the gap.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:55 pm

Polot wrote:
Not everyone is going to be stuffing 240 seats into the A321.


Though lots of low cost carriers have the A321 on order and are now packing them with 230 seats. Once the new door configuration gets certified in 2018, we can expect low cost airlines to put in another 10 seats.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:59 pm

frigatebird wrote:
But I seriously doubt there will be any new orders for the MAX-9 from now on.

I think we should see a few 'top off' orders for the -9 from the people who have large fleets of -900ER or MAX9 on order (UA, DL, AC etc) just for the sake of commonality.

goboeing wrote:
The overall lack of progress since the dawn of the jet age is sad.

Really? You don't see the "overall progress" in a world where you can travel a few thousand miles for a few hundred dollars?

JetBuddy wrote:
We're already seeing orders being converted from the -8 to the -10.

I think that's a product endorsement: these customers see the -10 as providing more value than the -8 and are willing to wait longer and pay more for it.
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TheGeordielad
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:03 pm

Will the MAX10 be able to cross the Atlantic non-stop? Let's say EDI to JFK?
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm

Lion Air is set to order 50 B737-10MAXs https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 37-max-10s
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:05 pm

 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:08 pm

TheGeordielad wrote:
Will the MAX10 be able to cross the Atlantic non-stop? Let's say EDI to JFK?


I highly doubt it, considering the range is about 3,215nm including one auxiliary tank. Then you need to remove 10-15% minimum for real world routing, weather and so on. But it will be perfect for most routes flown by A320/A321/737/738 today. Coast to coast US routes, Europe including Canary Islands, Southeast Asia and so on.
 
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IslandRob
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:10 pm

StTim wrote:
They were forced to by a market that they obviously were not listening to.

What? They were listening to the market. Obviously. And they'll likely run away with an impressive number of orders for the MAX 10. -ir
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:24 pm

Polot wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
Unless.. you are running this 800Nm trip with full tanks in which case you now get to put another 15,000l (approx 12tonnes) of fuel in the A321, that would make a difference to the trip cost.

1) An ACT doesn't add anywhere close to 15,000 l of fuel. An ACT adds ~3000 l of fuel.
2) Boeing would argue it included the ACT because a) many operators have them on the A321 and don't remove them for shorter flights, and b), with 1 ACT the A321 has closest equivalent fuel capacity as the 737 (26,692 l vs 25,817 l for the 737. A321 with no ACTs is 23,700 l).
3) Comparisons are always skewed in marketing slides, but I doubt Boeing is comparing fully fueled A321 to a 737 that has just the required fuel for the trip.
4) Any extra weight (even if it ~500kg) against the 737 helps Boeing.


1) Yup an extra zero crept in an AUX will add about 2 tonnes of fuel
2) I'm sure that they would
3) They never publish weights so I'm not so sure about that, like 2) Boeing could argue that airlines tank fuel not load up for just an 800Nm sector
4) Of course, and they pick the stage length ans associated assumptions that give them the best result in a head to head
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Polot
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:30 pm

BoeingVista wrote:
3) They never publish weights so I'm not so sure about that, like 2) Boeing could argue that airlines tank fuel not load up for just an 800Nm sector

They could but in that scenario they probably would compare them both completely filled, not one filled and the other not. Granted that still favors the 737, as it has slightly lower fuel capacity than an A321 with one tank.
 
PanAm788
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:43 pm

Honestly pretty disappointed. I haven't seen any official mention of new landing gear and it looks like they are still using the Leap-1B instead of the larger, more efficient and more powerful Leap-1A/C that was needed to be an actual competitor to the A321neo. Even less range than the -9 means that there is no hope with eventually competing with the A321neoLR (not that I was optimistic).

If people thought the -9 was a dog, just wait until the -10..

I'm also confused as to how it will be transported as 737 fuselages are transported by rail and I was under the impression that the -900/-9 length was the longest possible, hence why it was a short stretch to begin with.
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:55 pm

PanAm788 wrote:
Honestly pretty disappointed. I haven't seen any official mention of new landing gear and it looks like they are still using the Leap-1B instead of the larger, more efficient and more powerful Leap-1A/C that was needed to be an actual competitor to the A321neo. Even less range than the -9 means that there is no hope with eventually competing with the A321neoLR (not that I was optimistic).

If people thought the -9 was a dog, just wait until the -10..

I'm also confused as to how it will be transported as 737 fuselages are transported by rail and I was under the impression that the -900/-9 length was the longest possible, hence why it was a short stretch to begin with.

Serious question, is the straightening of rail lines to Seattle the enabler if this stretch? The lines were at capacity before. To increase adverage train speed, the lines were straightened and(dangerous here, I going from memory), flatter due to a new tunnel and bridges. A twistier parallel line was also opened (obviously not going to help with the -10).

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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:01 pm

TheGeordielad wrote:
Will the MAX10 be able to cross the Atlantic non-stop? Let's say EDI to JFK?


This is what makes a Max9 with Max10 improvements interesting. With the Max10 landing gear, how much better field performance would the Max9 have. How much more range could they get?
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:03 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
TheGeordielad wrote:
Will the MAX10 be able to cross the Atlantic non-stop? Let's say EDI to JFK?


I highly doubt it, considering the range is about 3,215nm including one auxiliary tank. Then you need to remove 10-15% minimum for real world routing, weather and so on. But it will be perfect for most routes flown by A320/A321/737/738 today. Coast to coast US routes, Europe including Canary Islands, Southeast Asia and so on.

It seems to have just enough range to about able to do the trip from Dublin, Edinburgh, Manchester, Birmingham to New York and Montreal as they are under 90% of the plane's maximum range.
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:30 pm

Revelation wrote:
This might suggest the -10 is a good enough aircraft to shift orders away from the -8.


Could imply the -9's weak sales were more due to lack of capacity than lack of performance, pushing Boeing customers to the larger A321. Now that they can get a similarly-sized MAX, they seem to be committing to it.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:30 pm

EPA001 wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
If the MAX 10 truly has 5% lower trip costs over the A321-neo that is a big advantage and should cut significantly into Airbus sales.


Well, the slides presenting advantages over a competing Aircraft are always to be taken with a big grain of salt, no matter which manufacturer presents them. On certain (shorter) routes it may have that advantage, and on other (longer) routes it might be at a disadvantage. In an analysis taking more elements into account posted here earlier today the aircraft offerings seem to be quite competitive to each other.

Time will tell how good the B737-MAX10 really will be.



I completely agree. I think both Boeing and Airbus fudge a lot of the data they present....particularly CASM because they can play around with the configurations of each aircraft....(i.e. All y class and filled to the gills on one and expansive 3 class on their competitor).

However, trip cost is harder to fudge, although as you say....mission length...payload...etc. can all be significant factors. Real world operational data needs to be obtained, but if Boeing is correct and there truly is a 5% lower trip cost advantage to the MAX-10 versus a A321-Neo.....that is big. Very big.

If true the MAX-10 should eat significantly into the A321-Neo sales.
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:36 pm

PanAm788 wrote:
Honestly pretty disappointed. I haven't seen any official mention of new landing gear and it looks like they are still using the Leap-1B instead of the larger, more efficient and more powerful Leap-1A/C that was needed to be an actual competitor to the A321neo. Even less range than the -9 means that there is no hope with eventually competing with the A321neoLR (not that I was optimistic).

If people thought the -9 was a dog, just wait until the -10..

I'm also confused as to how it will be transported as 737 fuselages are transported by rail and I was under the impression that the -900/-9 length was the longest possible, hence why it was a short stretch to begin with.


I didn't expect the 737-10 to compete with the LR version of the A321. The market segment for the LR payload increase isn't that big. I think Boeing is going to compete against that with a new MOM 797 that is optimized for payloads over 200k lbs.

The average stage length for a 737 is around 800-1000 miles. That is where the efficiency of the 737-10 is likely optimized.
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:46 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
I completely agree. I think both Boeing and Airbus fudge a lot of the data they present....particularly CASM because they can play around with the configurations of each aircraft....(i.e. All y class and filled to the gills on one and expansive 3 class on their competitor).

However, trip cost is harder to fudge, although as you say....mission length...payload...etc. can all be significant factors. Real world operational data needs to be obtained, but if Boeing is correct and there truly is a 5% lower trip cost advantage to the MAX-10 versus a A321-Neo.....that is big. Very big.

If true the MAX-10 should eat significantly into the A321-Neo sales.


I don't see how a 5% trip cost advantage is big, 5% is the absolute minimum needed to even stay on par with the A321neo considering the differences. We're talking about a 2021 737-10 vs a 2017 A321neo, which is a larger aircraft with more capacity, more range and engine performance packages coming down the line.
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:15 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I completely agree. I think both Boeing and Airbus fudge a lot of the data they present....particularly CASM because they can play around with the configurations of each aircraft....(i.e. All y class and filled to the gills on one and expansive 3 class on their competitor).

However, trip cost is harder to fudge, although as you say....mission length...payload...etc. can all be significant factors. Real world operational data needs to be obtained, but if Boeing is correct and there truly is a 5% lower trip cost advantage to the MAX-10 versus a A321-Neo.....that is big. Very big.

If true the MAX-10 should eat significantly into the A321-Neo sales.


I don't see how a 5% trip cost advantage is big, 5% is the absolute minimum needed to even stay on par with the A321neo considering the differences. We're talking about a 2021 737-10 vs a 2017 A321neo, which is a larger aircraft with more capacity, more range and engine performance packages coming down the line.



Math is your friend. :goodvibes: Both aircraft roughly seat the same number of pax. If Boeing's 5% lower trip cost is accurate then here is the math.

On a 1000nm mission the 737 MAX -10 burns around 2000 gallons of fuel. A 5% advantage would mean the MAX-10 burns about 100 gallons less of Jet-A per 1000nm flight than the A321-Neo. At current prices that is $250 savings per flight. Assume 4 such flights a day the MAX-10 costs $1,000 a day less to operate than the A321-Neo. Over a 20 year operational life of an aircraft (factoring in maintenance downtime) that is roughly a $7,000,000 dollar cost savings over the lifetime of the frame.


Would you call that significant? :smile: I think many airlines would.
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:16 pm

Polot wrote:
Revelation wrote:
So hopefully those complaints about the -9 sitting on its will be going away.

I wonder if we will see a 737-9ER with some of the -10 improvements ported over to the -9 to increase its usability for longer flights.

VC10er wrote:
United has 100 MAX 9's, on order (wiki) I wonder if they will convert or add incremental units?

UA also has ~61 MAXs from the previous 73G commitment. I suspect if UA gets the -10 it would be from that order and not the -9s, a good portion of which will probably be delivered before the -10 is ready.


From what I've seen put out by Boeing today it will have the range for California - Hawaii. For UA if they ordered the 10, West Coast-Hawaii, EWR-Florida, ORD-LAS, IAH-CUN etc.. look like ideal routes. I could see them ordering around 30-40.
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:20 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I completely agree. I think both Boeing and Airbus fudge a lot of the data they present....particularly CASM because they can play around with the configurations of each aircraft....(i.e. All y class and filled to the gills on one and expansive 3 class on their competitor).

However, trip cost is harder to fudge, although as you say....mission length...payload...etc. can all be significant factors. Real world operational data needs to be obtained, but if Boeing is correct and there truly is a 5% lower trip cost advantage to the MAX-10 versus a A321-Neo.....that is big. Very big.

If true the MAX-10 should eat significantly into the A321-Neo sales.


I don't see how a 5% trip cost advantage is big, 5% is the absolute minimum needed to even stay on par with the A321neo considering the differences. We're talking about a 2021 737-10 vs a 2017 A321neo, which is a larger aircraft with more capacity, more range and engine performance packages coming down the line.



Math is your friend. :goodvibes: Both aircraft roughly seat the same number of pax. If Boeing's 5% lower trip cost is accurate then here is the math.

On a 1000nm mission the 737 MAX -10 burns around 2000 gallons of fuel. A 5% advantage would mean the MAX-10 burns about 100 gallons less of Jet-A per 1000nm flight than the A321-Neo. At current prices that is $250 savings per flight. Assume 4 such flights a day the MAX-10 costs $1,000 a day less to operate than the A321-Neo. Over a 20 year operational life of an aircraft (factoring in maintenance downtime) that is roughly a $7,000,000 dollar cost savings over the lifetime of the frame.


Would you call that significant? :smile: I think many airlines would.




****edit***

Also, you assume Airbus will eventually make PIP's to the Neo and Boeing will not with the MAX. I can't look into a crystal ball, and neither can you. However....both planes look very, very competitive. If nothing else, it will pull down EADS margins on the Neo because they now have a very credible competitor.
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:20 pm

Even if the 5% trip cost reduction proves true across the majority of current 737/A320 operator's trips (which I don't expect), I see the MAX-10 more as stopping Boeing customers buying the A321 far more than stopping Airbus customers buying the A321.
Last edited by Stitch on Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:22 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Math is your friend. :goodvibes: Both aircraft roughly seat the same number of pax. If Boeing's 5% lower trip cost is accurate then here is the math.

On a 1000nm mission the 737 MAX -10 burns around 2000 gallons of fuel. A 5% advantage would mean the MAX-10 burns about 100 gallons less of Jet-A per 1000nm flight than the A321-Neo. At current prices that is $250 savings per flight. Assume 4 such flights a day the MAX-10 costs $1,000 a day less to operate than the A321-Neo. Over a 20 year operational life of an aircraft (factoring in maintenance downtime) that is roughly a $7,000,000 dollar cost savings over the lifetime of the frame.


Would you call that significant? :smile: I think many airlines would.


Boeing claims both 5 % lower trip cost and 5 % per seat cost when comparing 737 MAX 10 to A321neo (as they have the same number of seats in their example, the per trip and per seat cost advantage is the same). However, looking at the chart, Boeing also claims that 737 MAX 9 has roughly 4 % lower per seat cost compared to A321neo. We know that this is not true, as A321neo is a huge success compared to 737 MAX 9. The theoretical comparison is therefore at least 5 % off for Boeing's advantage, which means that 737 MAX 10 will have in reality higher per seat cost than A321neo.
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:24 pm

Stitch wrote:
Even if the 5% trip cost reduction proves true across the majority of such trips, I see the MAX-10 more as stopping Boeing customers buying the A321 far more than stopping Airbus customers buying the A321.



Speculation. I think it will come down...as always....to the individual needs of each airline. I commend Boeing because frankly I think they screwed the pooch with the MAX 9. It now appears that they have a viable alternative to the A321 Neo. Six months ago I don't too many people would have seen that coming....me included. :smile:
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:29 pm

Finn350 wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Math is your friend. :goodvibes: Both aircraft roughly seat the same number of pax. If Boeing's 5% lower trip cost is accurate then here is the math.

On a 1000nm mission the 737 MAX -10 burns around 2000 gallons of fuel. A 5% advantage would mean the MAX-10 burns about 100 gallons less of Jet-A per 1000nm flight than the A321-Neo. At current prices that is $250 savings per flight. Assume 4 such flights a day the MAX-10 costs $1,000 a day less to operate than the A321-Neo. Over a 20 year operational life of an aircraft (factoring in maintenance downtime) that is roughly a $7,000,000 dollar cost savings over the lifetime of the frame.


Would you call that significant? :smile: I think many airlines would.


Boeing claims both 5 % lower trip cost and 5 % per seat cost when comparing 737 MAX 10 to A321neo (as they have the same number of seats in their example, the per trip and per seat cost advantage is the same). However, looking at the chart, Boeing also claims that 737 MAX 9 has roughly 4 % lower per seat cost compared to A321neo. We know that this is not true, as A321neo is a huge success compared to 737 MAX 9. The theoretical comparison is therefore at least 5 % off for Boeing's advantage, which means that 737 MAX 10 will have in reality higher per seat cost than A321neo.



And the MAX 8 is superior to the A320 NEO across most missions yet EADS claims otherwise. :smile: Look...until there is real world operational data no ones knows for sure. What I think can be safely assumed from the independent analysis that is currently out there....the MAX-10 looks to be very competitive with the A321-Neo.

I say good for Boeing. I freely admit I did not see it coming.
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:44 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Math is your friend. :goodvibes: Both aircraft roughly seat the same number of pax. If Boeing's 5% lower trip cost is accurate then here is the math.

On a 1000nm mission the 737 MAX -10 burns around 2000 gallons of fuel. A 5% advantage would mean the MAX-10 burns about 100 gallons less of Jet-A per 1000nm flight than the A321-Neo. At current prices that is $250 savings per flight. Assume 4 such flights a day the MAX-10 costs $1,000 a day less to operate than the A321-Neo. Over a 20 year operational life of an aircraft (factoring in maintenance downtime) that is roughly a $7,000,000 dollar cost savings over the lifetime of the frame.


Would you call that significant? :smile: I think many airlines would.


Boeing claims both 5 % lower trip cost and 5 % per seat cost when comparing 737 MAX 10 to A321neo (as they have the same number of seats in their example, the per trip and per seat cost advantage is the same). However, looking at the chart, Boeing also claims that 737 MAX 9 has roughly 4 % lower per seat cost compared to A321neo. We know that this is not true, as A321neo is a huge success compared to 737 MAX 9. The theoretical comparison is therefore at least 5 % off for Boeing's advantage, which means that 737 MAX 10 will have in reality higher per seat cost than A321neo.



And the MAX 8 is superior to the A320 NEO across most missions yet EADS claims otherwise. :smile: Look...until there is real world operational data no ones knows for sure. What I think can be safely assumed from the independent analysis that is currently out there....the MAX-10 looks to be very competitive with the A321-Neo.

I say good for Boeing. I freely admit I did not see it coming.


The MAX8's advantage is perhaps 2% or less. I believe 2% is the rough difference between the 737-800 and A320ceo. Easily covered by discounts, commonality. And I'm not sure how Boeing will have closed that gap, given that they've had to make more changes to accommodate the new engine. The MAX10 has a lot of ground to make up on the other hand. The question is how much has Boeing addressed what makes the MAX9 a slow seller, and will the better efficiency be enough to sway customers?
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:48 pm

Stitch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This might suggest the -10 is a good enough aircraft to shift orders away from the -8.


Could imply the -9's weak sales were more due to lack of capacity than lack of performance, pushing Boeing customers to the larger A321. Now that they can get a similarly-sized MAX, they seem to be committing to it.

Earlier we saw:

Image
so it might be going from 220 seats to 220 is not as interesting as going 200 to 230, but also the -9 was a 'straight stretch' of the -8 whereas it seems the -10 is getting more tweaks (gear, engine c-of-g, maybe a thrust bump?).
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:49 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
The question is how much has Boeing addressed what makes the MAX9 a slow seller, and will the better efficiency be enough to sway customers?


Based on the launch MoUs, the MAX-10 order book looks larger than the MAX-9's (based on Wiki figures) and the bulk of those conversions are from the -8 and not the -9, so I'd say that would be a "yes".
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:59 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I didn't expect the 737-10 to compete with the LR version of the A321. The market segment for the LR payload increase isn't that big. I think Boeing is going to compete against that with a new MOM 797 that is optimized for payloads over 200k lbs.

The average stage length for a 737 is around 800-1000 miles. That is where the efficiency of the 737-10 is likely optimized.

Interestingly enough, the 737's Chief Engineer has something to say about its range:

Though Airbus claims its jet has more range, Leverkuhn vehemently challenged that.

He said the Airbus claim is based on adding auxiliary fuel tanks, which airlines add only if they absolutely need the extra range, as they are a maintenance headache.

With two extra auxiliary tanks, the A321neo has slightly more range than the 3,450-mile range of the MAX without such tanks, Leverkuhn said. But Boeing can trump that by adding just one tank to the MAX 10, which extends its range to 3,700 miles.

“Base-to-base airplanes, we have more range,” Leverkuhn said. “If we put one extra tank, we have better range than they have with two.”

Seems he's not giving any ground...

Ref: http://www.seattletimes.com/business/bo ... -air-show/
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:02 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Finn350 wrote:

Boeing claims both 5 % lower trip cost and 5 % per seat cost when comparing 737 MAX 10 to A321neo (as they have the same number of seats in their example, the per trip and per seat cost advantage is the same). However, looking at the chart, Boeing also claims that 737 MAX 9 has roughly 4 % lower per seat cost compared to A321neo. We know that this is not true, as A321neo is a huge success compared to 737 MAX 9. The theoretical comparison is therefore at least 5 % off for Boeing's advantage, which means that 737 MAX 10 will have in reality higher per seat cost than A321neo.



And the MAX 8 is superior to the A320 NEO across most missions yet EADS claims otherwise. :smile: Look...until there is real world operational data no ones knows for sure. What I think can be safely assumed from the independent analysis that is currently out there....the MAX-10 looks to be very competitive with the A321-Neo.

I say good for Boeing. I freely admit I did not see it coming.


The MAX8's advantage is perhaps 2% or less. I believe 2% is the rough difference between the 737-800 and A320ceo. Easily covered by discounts, commonality. And I'm not sure how Boeing will have closed that gap, given that they've had to make more changes to accommodate the new engine. The MAX10 has a lot of ground to make up on the other hand. The question is how much has Boeing addressed what makes the MAX9 a slow seller, and will the better efficiency be enough to sway customers?
!


I think your statement is very fair. The burden of proof is on Boeing. I think they had to do something or completely cede the MOM to EADS.

We'll see if the 737-10 lives up to the hype. I would say so far the market and analysts seem to feel it is a credible alternative to the A321-Neo.
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Polot
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:13 pm

Revelation wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I didn't expect the 737-10 to compete with the LR version of the A321. The market segment for the LR payload increase isn't that big. I think Boeing is going to compete against that with a new MOM 797 that is optimized for payloads over 200k lbs.

The average stage length for a 737 is around 800-1000 miles. That is where the efficiency of the 737-10 is likely optimized.

Interestingly enough, the 737's Chief Engineer has something to say about its range:

Though Airbus claims its jet has more range, Leverkuhn vehemently challenged that.

He said the Airbus claim is based on adding auxiliary fuel tanks, which airlines add only if they absolutely need the extra range, as they are a maintenance headache.

With two extra auxiliary tanks, the A321neo has slightly more range than the 3,450-mile range of the MAX without such tanks, Leverkuhn said. But Boeing can trump that by adding just one tank to the MAX 10, which extends its range to 3,700 miles.

“Base-to-base airplanes, we have more range,” Leverkuhn said. “If we put one extra tank, we have better range than they have with two.”

Seems he's not giving any ground...

Ref: http://www.seattletimes.com/business/bo ... -air-show/


Well the problem with the 737-9/737-10 is not fuel capacity (it has a bigger base fuel capacity than the A321, and like Airbus Boeing can always rob cargo space for more tankage), it is weight and the performance requirements that go along with increasing that.

And of course the problem with the 737/advantages of the A320 all boils down to one variable: landing gear length.
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:21 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
We'll see if the 737-10 lives up to the hype. I would say so far the market and analysts seem to feel it is a credible alternative to the A321-Neo.

An interesting one-liner from the Seattle Times piece ( http://www.seattletimes.com/business/bo ... -air-show/ ):

An independent analysis by aviation consulting firm Leeham.net comparing the MAX 10 and the A321neo concluded that with similar seating configurations, the economics of the two jet families are roughly on par.

It's an interesting statement given that many here accuse Leeham of carrying the water for Airbus.

ElroyJetson wrote:
What I think can be safely assumed from the independent analysis that is currently out there....the MAX-10 looks to be very competitive with the A321-Neo.

I say good for Boeing. I freely admit I did not see it coming.

Yes, if it turns out to be more or less true, it is an unexpected outcome based on our various MadMAX threads here on a.net.
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fsabo
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
We'll see if the 737-10 lives up to the hype. I would say so far the market and analysts seem to feel it is a credible alternative to the A321-Neo.

An interesting one-liner from the Seattle Times piece ( http://www.seattletimes.com/business/bo ... -air-show/ ):

An independent analysis by aviation consulting firm Leeham.net comparing the MAX 10 and the A321neo concluded that with similar seating configurations, the economics of the two jet families are roughly on par.

It's an interesting statement given that many here accuse Leeham of carrying the water for Airbus.

ElroyJetson wrote:
What I think can be safely assumed from the independent analysis that is currently out there....the MAX-10 looks to be very competitive with the A321-Neo.

I say good for Boeing. I freely admit I did not see it coming.

Yes, if it turns out to be more or less true, it is an unexpected outcome based on our various MadMAX threads here on a.net.


Economics "on par" seems reasonable. The MAX10 being somewhat lighter but the A321NEO having more efficient engines, especially if the 3% GTF pip comes by the time the MAX10 deliveries start.

I suppose that even with "trailing link" gear on the MAX10, the 321NEO will still have better field performance.

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LAX772LR
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:33 pm

winterlight wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Scouring their site to see if I can learn more about this landing gear.... coming up short. :(

Me too. I can't see what can be done to two-wheeled gears.




I'd imagine something like this, but with less length on the trailing segment:

Image
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tjh8402
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:04 pm

That video showed lie flat seats, something that people have questioned whether they can be fitted to a 737. Since this probably won't be TATL, I assume Boeing is probably targeting the premium transcon market? Both UA and DL have large 757 fleets on the premium transcon market. This would seem to the an ideal aircraft for that market.

Also, would going for a lower density seating arrangement help make TATL more likely? UA's TATL 757s only seat like 165-170 people. The Boeing engineer said adding an ACT bumps range to 3700nm. Would that extra ACT plus a low density seating arrangement with LF J (with say 150-160 people) be able to do TATL?
 
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Finn350
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:19 pm

tjh8402 wrote:
Also, would going for a lower density seating arrangement help make TATL more likely? UA's TATL 757s only seat like 165-170 people. The Boeing engineer said adding an ACT bumps range to 3700nm. Would that extra ACT plus a low density seating arrangement with LF J (with say 150-160 people) be able to do TATL?


Range is 3215 nm (3700 miles) with an ACT.
 
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:21 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
The burden of proof is on Boeing. I think they had to do something or completely cede the MOM to EADS.

We'll see if the 737-10 lives up to the hype. I would say so far the market and analysts seem to feel it is a credible alternative to the A321-Neo.

So in that case, would Airbus still have an easy A322 stretch path to compete should Boeing launch an optimized TATL MoM, seeing the latter has a similar option base now too - by just replacing the landing gears :?:
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:59 pm

The 9 will be in the same market position as the 737-900A. And like that plane, it will probably not be offered for too long.

I wonder, though, how field performance would be on a 9 with the 10's levered gear. If it were meaningfully better than the existing 9, a few 8 orders might convert upward to 9s.
 
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767333ER
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:17 pm

I'd like to know how this thing is going to get stopped in the winter for example when the runway conditions aren't up to par. The 737-900 is bad enough, the 737-10 presumably used the same braking system and is significantly heavier, how will the thing stop?
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:18 pm

MAX-10 seems like a decent offering that will maintain ~40% market share in this segment, perhaps allowing overall narrowbody parity with Airbus going forward (assuming MAX-8/200 bests the A320NEO). Seems cheap. Good move, Boeing.

But what has been happening in Chicago/Seattle over the last few years? It hasn't been a secret that the A321NEO/LR was eating the -9's lunch. Any reasonable person should have reached that conclusion by like 2014 at the latest.

Did Boeing delay reaction because it was drinking its own sauce?
 
airzona11
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:19 pm

Some comments on here are so humorous. At the end of the day, airlines have 2 options. Neither plane is as absolute as some want it to be. The only option for Boeing and Airbus is to build spec for spec the same plane or offer a little more range here, seating there, or squeeze life out of amortized, awesome platforms and offer a lower priced plane. We would all love new sets that can fly

I am sure Boeing will take MAX9->10 conversions all day. It is no different than any other upsize, Boeing commands a higher price.

Like others have said, maybe just maybe, the impeccable performance of the A321 wasn't what was beating the 739 and it might have been the seating capacity. Both plane manufacturers are rolling out efficient, money making birds.

Love seeing the 737 evolve and grow.
 
ZEDZAG
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:24 pm

LAX772LR wrote:

I'd imagine something like this, but with less length on the trailing segment:



if Boeing makes something like this, dont they have to redesign MLG bays? Or would this solution fit in the existing ones?

So this could have been done earlier and help MAX 9 in its real weaknes against 321neo and that is its field performance
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:54 pm

According to the video linked below from CNBC, the 737 Max 10 will be the most profitable single aisle airplane ever.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video= ... 687&play=1
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:16 am

I have to wonder if the AS order for MAX8 and MAX9 will become MAX9 and MAX10 orders instead, particularly with the MAX10 stepping into A321NEO performance territory.
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Planesmart
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:19 am

Matt6461 wrote:
But what has been happening in Chicago/Seattle over the last few years? It hasn't been a secret that the A321NEO/LR was eating the -9's lunch. Any reasonable person should have reached that conclusion by like 2014 at the latest.

Boeing was frozen into inaction by internal (two externally peer reviewed) inquests held into the financial under-performance of three new models, compounded by heavy discounting on the outgoing 777 family.

The 737 (and 767) has been the bread winner, with 'achieved' prices inflated by full Airbus orders, engine issues, long waits for new customers, and premium pricing/high margins.

The A32X CEO and NEO families enjoy the fattest margins in the industry, and the A321 is the pinnacle.

As the Airbus order book starts to taper, they have far more margin to play with than Boeing. I don't know what profit sensitivity analysis Boeing has or will perform on the latest MAX model, but.... If the latest 737 doesn't deliver the promised financial results, their Board's willingness (and ability) to support new models will likely be impaired for the next decade.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:37 am

Matt6461 wrote:
MAX-10 seems like a decent offering that will maintain ~40% market share in this segment, perhaps allowing overall narrowbody parity with Airbus going forward (assuming MAX-8/200 bests the A320NEO). Seems cheap. Good move, Boeing.

But what has been happening in Chicago/Seattle over the last few years? It hasn't been a secret that the A321NEO/LR was eating the -9's lunch. Any reasonable person should have reached that conclusion by like 2014 at the latest.

Did Boeing delay reaction because it was drinking its own sauce?


It has long been argued that oligopoly cuts down the pace of innovation. It's easier (and may generate higher ROIC) just to milk old investments.
 
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flee
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:26 am

Devilfish wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
The burden of proof is on Boeing. I think they had to do something or completely cede the MOM to EADS.

We'll see if the 737-10 lives up to the hype. I would say so far the market and analysts seem to feel it is a credible alternative to the A321-Neo.

So in that case, would Airbus still have an easy A322 stretch path to compete should Boeing launch an optimized TATL MoM, seeing the latter has a similar option base now too - by just replacing the landing gears :?:

It is interesting to note that the Max 10 orders came mainly from lessors. Lion Air's commitment may not be a new order but a conversion of existing orders.

I would think that Airbus have options - they don't have to respond directly to the Max 10 because the A21N is already competitive and immediately available.

What they might do is perhaps put even more pressure on Boeing in the MoM sector and launch an A322 with new carbon wings and seating about 265 pax in a single LCC class configuration. Range 5000 nm.

This will immediately put pressure on Boeing to launch their MoM. The same thing happened when Airbus launched the A320 Neo and Boeing had no choice but to come in with the Max.

The narrow body market is the most profitable sector of the civil airliner market - neither Boeing nor Airbus will be prepared to cede any market share to the other. Orders are still robust and it will be a very interesting two or three years to come.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:29 am

Polot wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
3) They never publish weights so I'm not so sure about that, like 2) Boeing could argue that airlines tank fuel not load up for just an 800Nm sector

They could but in that scenario they probably would compare them both completely filled, not one filled and the other not. Granted that still favors the 737, as it has slightly lower fuel capacity than an A321 with one tank.


When you are claiming a 5% advantage every little 'favour' you do yourself in the maths can make a significant difference to the headline.
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:33 am

flee wrote:
It is interesting to note that the Max 10 orders came mainly from lessors.


Doubly so when reports only a few months earlier said lessors were not impressed / not interested in the MAX-10.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:35 am

StTim wrote:
Always remember that Boeing were forced into the MAX10 - this is not a plane they thought they needed to have. They were forced to by a market that they obviously were not listening to.


So? Did they forget the sugar in your lemonade today?

Strato2 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
Polot wrote:
I suspect the real world seating configuration between the 737-10 and A321 will generally be about the same. Not everyone is going to be stuffing 240 seats into the A321.


Huh. Because you say so? I suspect the real world difference will be bigger. Not everyone will be stuffing 230 seats into the MAX10.


What an attitude to a valued poster. If you have a problem with his comments, call Leeham. It looks like they are on the same page.

Polot wrote:
Revelation wrote:
So hopefully those complaints about the -9 sitting on its will be going away.

I wonder if we will see a 737-9ER with some of the -10 improvements ported over to the -9 to increase its usability for longer flights.

VC10er wrote:
United has 100 MAX 9's, on order (wiki) I wonder if they will convert or add incremental units?

UA also has ~61 MAXs from the previous 73G commitment. I suspect if UA gets the -10 it would be from that order and not the -9s, a good portion of which will probably be delivered before the -10 is ready.


To go from 737-700s to 737 MAX 10s - who woulda thunk? And it all started with the CSeries. lol

FlyUSAir wrote:
goboeing wrote:
The overall lack of progress since the dawn of the jet age is sad.


Couldn't agree more. I love Boeing and I love the 737 but there's only so much you can stretch it before you need a new aircraft/design.


Smh. Ever heard of the MoM/797? :-) They are working on it, but they probably don't like losing the sales of this segment to Airbus until 2026.

lightsaber wrote:
PanAm788 wrote:
Honestly pretty disappointed. I haven't seen any official mention of new landing gear and it looks like they are still using the Leap-1B instead of the larger, more efficient and more powerful Leap-1A/C that was needed to be an actual competitor to the A321neo. Even less range than the -9 means that there is no hope with eventually competing with the A321neoLR (not that I was optimistic).

If people thought the -9 was a dog, just wait until the -10..

I'm also confused as to how it will be transported as 737 fuselages are transported by rail and I was under the impression that the -900/-9 length was the longest possible, hence why it was a short stretch to begin with.

Serious question, is the straightening of rail lines to Seattle the enabler if this stretch? The lines were at capacity before. To increase adverage train speed, the lines were straightened and(dangerous here, I going from memory), flatter due to a new tunnel and bridges. A twistier parallel line was also opened (obviously not going to help with the -10).

Lightsaber


The rail lines to the PNW on BNSF are clogged. They are working on adding capacity but I don't think Boeing would say things have been great. As far as clearances, the biggest issue IIRC was in Renton on the spur to Boeing. The old bridge was replaced with an open deck version so I don't see that making a difference. Ultimately, I'm guessing it's not a big issue.
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