lightmac
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Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:17 am

How would Berlin-Tegel and Düsseldorf cope with a demise of Air Berlin? For Berlin it would mean the loss of most long-haul flights, calling into question the viability of many feeder flights as well? Would Lufthansa want to fill the void with SOME non-hub flights? Could EW really make Berlin a big focus city and bring in long-haul jets? Would newer airlines such as Norwegian, LEVEL or Boost try to come in? What is your scenario?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:23 am

Berlin can only become a hub once the new airport opens, because Tegel is not designed to be used as a hub. Until the new airport opens, there is no real option to plan a long haul op there. Once you know 100% when it opens and how many slots you can have at which times, you could start thinking about long haul ops.

Norwegian could surely try for some NA routes from Schönefeld once AB folds.

Düsseldorf is in a stronger position imho and will become an EW hub. The airport and the region are better suited for it and after the recent elections the slot problem might also be seeing some improvement.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:07 pm

But then the question begs to be asked...what sense would it make for EW to have hubs at BOTH DUS and CGN?
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:13 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
But then the question begs to be asked...what sense would it make for EW to have hubs at BOTH DUS and CGN?

If AB does fold EW could put its more main/big city routes at DUS and leisure routes at CGN.
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:14 pm

Plus I'm sure EW would be quick to get AB aircraft.
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:16 pm

I think Boost which is AFs llc project would only serve France and take parts out of Air France.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:49 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
But then the question begs to be asked...what sense would it make for EW to have hubs at BOTH DUS and CGN?


Different markets. In case AB folds, I would be more concerned about CGN loosing EW long haul than DUS.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:56 pm

Berlin is still a very important city. LH would be stupid to not set up at least a focus city there with legacy LH aircraft to key cities. In fact I'm still surprised Berlin and Washington DC still don't have a nonstop air connection. An LH A330 would do great at 4 or 5x weekly at minimum, or UA 763/788.
Eat 'em up Kats!
 
Varsity1
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:58 pm

I hope LH steps in.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:26 pm

Norwegian has already announced a long haul base in Dusseldorf, I guess the collapse of Air Berlin would only make Norwegian stronger there. Any other free capacity in both Dusseldorf and Berlin would immediately be taken up by other airlines, mostly LCCs.
 
r2rho
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:29 pm

LH will do anything to prevent LCCs from gaining further market share in Germany, hence why they are leasing a third of the AB fleet and have publicly admitted interest in a full takeover. AB is sitting on some very juicy slots that LH does not want to see in the hands of FR or U2.

Having said that, FR has already stated that it would happily station... I believe around 10? aircraft at TXL once/if BER opens and TXL stays open, maybe even moving its whole operation there. I'm sure other LCC's would step in too. As for DUS, EW would take over, likely to the detriment of CGN. However, slot restrictions prevnent DUS from becoming anything more than a strong focus city, not a full hub.

Either way, the void will be filled. Take HAM for instance, once an important AB base, now less than a shadow of its former self. U2, FR, DY, EW, even VY were quick to pick up the routes that AB left behind.
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:42 pm

r2rho wrote:
LH will do anything to prevent LCCs from gaining further market share in Germany, hence why they are leasing a third of the AB fleet and have publicly admitted interest in a full takeover. AB is sitting on some very juicy slots that LH does not want to see in the hands of FR or U2.

Having said that, FR has already stated that it would happily station... I believe around 10? aircraft at TXL once/if BER opens and TXL stays open, maybe even moving its whole operation there. I'm sure other LCC's would step in too. As for DUS, EW would take over, likely to the detriment of CGN. However, slot restrictions prevnent DUS from becoming anything more than a strong focus city, not a full hub.

Either way, the void will be filled. Take HAM for instance, once an important AB base, now less than a shadow of its former self. U2, FR, DY, EW, even VY were quick to pick up the routes that AB left behind.

It's 20 B738s.https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... rlin-tegel
 
mxaxai
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:57 pm

It will likely further decrease the amount of regional and small flying. As shown, too many customers will not opt for the higher-frequency Q400 if a significantly cheaper Ryanair alternative is available. Even if said alternative only flies maybe thrice weekly or daily at most.

There is definitely a fairly large longhaul market at both DUS and TXL/BER. Legacy Lufthansa would need too many feeder flights, which are hard to fill against LCC competition. That leaves the LH-LCC, of which only Eurowings and Norwegian have expressed interest in flying from Germany. Eurowings does not offer a proper premium cabin (yet) whereas DY has some sort of business class seat. Both lack the public premium image and the frequency to reliably attract business customers, so I think there may be an opportunity for foreign carriers like NH, JAL, SQ, or the ME & US3 to grab some marketshare.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:47 am

Some new ideas out of Berlin.

https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/articl ... ennte.html

So one option for a too small BER, is a train connection to Leipzig-Halle with traffic being sent there. I think any airline thinking about a Hub at BER would be crazy, with politicians wishing to get air traffic away from Berlin.
 
r2rho
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:57 am

So one option for a too small BER, is a train connection to Leipzig-Halle with traffic being sent there.

The fact that they see LEJ as a viable alternative to BER ist just another proof of how flawed their reasoning is... not even FR dares to ask people to do that. And the air fares would have to be really rock-bottom to compensate for the price of the ICE ticket...
The article cites other airfields "around" Berlin that could be considered to be upgraded, instead of leaving in place a perfectly functioning and well-located infrastructure - TXL.
 
OO-VEG
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Re: Berlin-Tegel (and Düsseldorf) without Air Berlin?

Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:44 am

EW would have to offer a strong product at DUS to keep the market share. Frequent connections where for me one of the strong points of AB. The choice of 5x and later 4x per day to CPH made me fly them for business. LH would do good to use some smaller equipment on a higher frequency, it would perfectly well and could keep the other LCC's at bay.

I fear though that the end result at TXL and DUS are not going to be as pretty as they were. DUS will surely recover but I doubt if LH is going to make treat DUS like it treats MUC & FRA

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