jplatts
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Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:11 pm

Even though UA has a major hub at SFO and even though UA has recently added nonstop service from SFO to CVG and DTW, there are a few major cities in the contiguous U.S. that UA does not fly to nonstop out of SFO. CMH, CLT, and MKE currently do have nonstop service to the San Francisco Bay Area on airlines other than UA, whereas ICT, JAX, SDF, and TUL do not have any nonstop service to the San Francisco Bay Area.

Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL? All 7 of these airports are located in major U.S. cities, all 7 of these airports are currently served by United Airlines, and 6 of these 7 airports currently have United Airlines mainline service. In addition, SDF and JAX do not currently have any nonstop service to the west coast.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:31 pm

None of those are "major" cities. Important regional hubs? Yes.

CMH, MKE and CLT maybe one day.

The rest? Highly unlikely.
a.
 
loisencroach
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:32 pm

I think AS/VX will answer that demand
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:36 pm

Maybe, maybe, maybe, no, maybe, no, maybe.

ICT and TUL would have to be on with Express.
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:44 pm

If they don't then AS will, particularly MKE, ICT and IND.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:59 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
If they don't then AS will, particularly MKE, ICT and IND.


IND already has UA and Virgin is scheduled to start it.
 
osupoke07
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:02 pm

TUL seems to offer incentives ever few years to get new coastal flights. Currently the only flights to the coasts are BWI and LAX on Allegiant, and I suspect those flights are taking advantage of incentives. At one point, I want to say AA served LAX and UA definitely served EWR, but the drop in oil prices has really reduced non-stop demand. Traffic is easially routed through DFA/DAL, DEN, and ATL.

The only way UA would offer SFO, or Southwest with OAK, would be if TUL offered incentives again, and at that, I'm not sure it would work.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:07 pm

jplatts wrote:
Even though UA has a major hub at SFO and even though UA has recently added nonstop service from SFO to CVG and DTW, there are a few major cities in the contiguous U.S. that UA does not fly to nonstop out of SFO. CMH, CLT, and MKE currently do have nonstop service to the San Francisco Bay Area on airlines other than UA, whereas ICT, JAX, SDF, and TUL do not have any nonstop service to the San Francisco Bay Area.

Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL? All 7 of these airports are located in major U.S. cities, all 7 of these airports are currently served by United Airlines, and 6 of these 7 airports currently have United Airlines mainline service. In addition, SDF and JAX do not currently have any nonstop service to the west coast.


I would think they'd add MEM before TUL especially with the XNA and OKC routes nearby.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:18 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
TUL seems to offer incentives ever few years to get new coastal flights. Currently the only flights to the coasts are BWI and LAX on Allegiant, and I suspect those flights are taking advantage of incentives. At one point, I want to say AA served LAX and UA definitely served EWR, but the drop in oil prices has really reduced non-stop demand. Traffic is easially routed through DFA/DAL, DEN, and ATL.

The only way UA would offer SFO, or Southwest with OAK, would be if TUL offered incentives again, and at that, I'm not sure it would work.


The direct fares on the Denver flight are cheap thanks to competition with WN, I'm sure both make the money via connecting flights there.I want to say one of the TUL flights DEN via WN is a no plane change to some West Coast location, maybe OAK.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:03 pm

Of those listed, UA used to fly SFO-MKE in the 1970s with a 727. I'm surprised they don't now.
 
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DDR
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:14 pm

When AA had the TUL-LAX flight, it was always full. So there is demand, just don't know if the yields are worth it. It's crazy how much more service OKC gets than TUL.
 
Tan Flyr
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:42 pm

At what point does SFO reach saturation? UA/ VX/ AS..it doesn't matter. The moment the visibility goes down due to fog/ low clouds/ rain the delays just build and build. I fail to see why flights keep being added at one of the most delay prone airports in the US. IF, any carrier believes the market between SFO and ??? needs a nonstop service, somewhere there needs to be a compensating adjustment..or just more flights to late evening/ night or very early AM. SFO could for sure be a case where going back to larger aircraft on prime routes vs frequency is a smart option. More 787/777/767/330 between SFO and any number of other prime hubs..and fewer 738/321/757/320 on some of these routes.

I avoid SFO just save the headache of weather delays. Beautiful airport, just a lot of minimal weather at times and big delays.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:45 pm

Tan Flyr wrote:
At what point does SFO reach saturation? ... SFO could for sure be a case where going back to larger aircraft on prime routes vs frequency is a smart option. More 787/777/767/330 between SFO and any number of other prime hubs..and fewer 738/321/757/320 on some of these routes.




Totally agree on bigger planes, trimming frequency. PDX-SFO is 20 daily (UA 9, AS 5, WN 3, VX 3). Of course UA is shuttling people to their Asia connections. [Plus daily PDX-OAK 9, PDX-SJC 10]

39 flights a day PDX-Bay Area. I mean frequency is nice but then there's overkill.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:28 am

jbpdx wrote:
Tan Flyr wrote:
At what point does SFO reach saturation? ... SFO could for sure be a case where going back to larger aircraft on prime routes vs frequency is a smart option. More 787/777/767/330 between SFO and any number of other prime hubs..and fewer 738/321/757/320 on some of these routes.




Totally agree on bigger planes, trimming frequency. PDX-SFO is 20 daily (UA 9, AS 5, WN 3, VX 3). Of course UA is shuttling people to their Asia connections. [Plus daily PDX-OAK 9, PDX-SJC 10]

39 flights a day PDX-Bay Area. I mean frequency is nice but then there's overkill.

The FAA will slot te airport when it gets to that point. As far as markets to complain about those mentioned are hardly tops. There are currently ~190 daily round trips from the 3 bay area airports to the 5 LA basin airports.
 
ericm2031
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:42 am

I thought WN was moving SFO-MKE to OAK, but apparently not...not sure that will last though. If that route is really that great, UA and/or AS/VX would probably already have announced it.
 
simpv
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:39 pm

I could see a few of those, like CMH and MKE, working. But I doubt they would provide much feed for UA's TPAC network, especially when connections are likely faster through ORD already.
 
jetero
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:42 pm

DDR wrote:
When AA had the TUL-LAX flight, it was always full. So there is demand, just don't know if the yields are worth it. It's crazy how much more service OKC gets than TUL.


When you employ thousands of people in Tulsa, I'm not surprised.
 
TerminalD
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:44 pm

I'm not a fan of very specific thread titles that imply there is something solid this is based upon. Nothing to see here. Anything could happen.
 
sw733
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:08 pm

DDR wrote:
It's crazy how much more service OKC gets than TUL.


They do have shockingly similar metro area populations (Tulsa is approximately 1.25 million, and OKC is approximately 1.35 million...but most people view OKC as a lot bigger). But I believe OKC has quite a bit more business travel - Tinker AFB and the FAA bring in lots of people (and send out lots of people), Boeing has grown there in recent years, and big companies like Hobby Lobby are based there. Tulsa just doesn't have quite as much on that front, and I am sure that's a big part of the reason why OKC has so much more service despite having only about 100,000 more people.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:11 pm

TerminalD wrote:
I'm not a fan of very specific thread titles that imply there is something solid this is based upon. Nothing to see here. Anything could happen.


Stay tuned for next week. There will be another. He hasn't even delved into international destinations yet.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:34 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
I thought WN was moving SFO-MKE to OAK, but apparently not...not sure that will last though.

Last I heard MKE-SFO/SAN/SEA is becoming seasonal.
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:01 pm

jbpdx wrote:
39 flights a day PDX-Bay Area. I mean frequency is nice but then there's overkill.


If you want carrier competition and frequency sufficient for business travel on short-haul flights, to four Bay Area airports (yes, STS), then it's a lot of flights. If carriers thought they could may more $ elsewhere they would redeploy the assets.

The OP ignores the role of ORD in the UA network, makes no reference to passenger counts between airport pairs, O&D to TPAC destinations, and ignores frequency & availability from nearby hubs. Hubbing JAX-ATL-SAN/LAX/SJC/OAK/SMF/PDX/SEA makes a lot of sense, frankly.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:32 pm

jetero wrote:
DDR wrote:
When AA had the TUL-LAX flight, it was always full. So there is demand, just don't know if the yields are worth it. It's crazy how much more service OKC gets than TUL.


When you employ thousands of people in Tulsa, I'm not surprised.


Yeah, I'm not surprised an AA flight to an AA hub from their largest maintenance base was full. That could mean though that it was more non-revs than a standard flight, and thus, wasn't making enough money to sustain.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:35 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
jetero wrote:
DDR wrote:
When AA had the TUL-LAX flight, it was always full. So there is demand, just don't know if the yields are worth it. It's crazy how much more service OKC gets than TUL.


When you employ thousands of people in Tulsa, I'm not surprised.


Yeah, I'm not surprised an AA flight to an AA hub from their largest maintenance base was full. That could mean though that it was more non-revs than a standard flight, and thus, wasn't making enough money to sustain.


T100 holds the answer as it does not include non-revs. The flight never broke over 75% for a month. Loads were lower in that day, but the final year of ops it had a pitiful 54% load, likely there was some impact from the post-9/11 drop in air traffic. Looking at the old fare data is was not high yield either.

Month / LAX-TUL AA LF%
Nov00…42%
Dec00…50%
Jan01…38%
Feb01…34%
Mar01…55%
Apr01…44%
May01…57%
Jun01…72%
Jul01…75%
Aug01…72%
Sep01…44%
Oct01…48%
Nov01…51%
Dec01…54%
Jan02…48%
Feb02…47%
Mar02…65%
Apr02…48%
May02…51%
Jun02…63%
Jul02…68%
Aug02…64%
Sep02…49%
 
jetero
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:46 am

Rdh3e wrote:
osupoke07 wrote:
jetero wrote:

When you employ thousands of people in Tulsa, I'm not surprised.


Yeah, I'm not surprised an AA flight to an AA hub from their largest maintenance base was full. That could mean though that it was more non-revs than a standard flight, and thus, wasn't making enough money to sustain.


T100 holds the answer as it does not include non-revs. The flight never broke over 75% for a month. Loads were lower in that day, but the final year of ops it had a pitiful 54% load, likely there was some impact from the post-9/11 drop in air traffic. Looking at the old fare data is was not high yield either.

Month / LAX-TUL AA LF%
Nov00…42%
Dec00…50%
Jan01…38%
Feb01…34%
Mar01…55%
Apr01…44%
May01…57%
Jun01…72%
Jul01…75%
Aug01…72%
Sep01…44%
Oct01…48%
Nov01…51%
Dec01…54%
Jan02…48%
Feb02…47%
Mar02…65%
Apr02…48%
May02…51%
Jun02…63%
Jul02…68%
Aug02…64%
Sep02…49%


Great data, thanks.
 
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DDR
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:57 pm

jetero wrote:
DDR wrote:
When AA had the TUL-LAX flight, it was always full. So there is demand, just don't know if the yields are worth it. It's crazy how much more service OKC gets than TUL.


When you employ thousands of people in Tulsa, I'm not surprised.


Sorry but I dont buy that. The last flight I was on from LAX to TUL was actually over sold.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:53 am

WN appears to be withdrawing from SFO-MKE at least seasonally FWIW.
 
jetero
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:14 pm

DDR wrote:
jetero wrote:
DDR wrote:
When AA had the TUL-LAX flight, it was always full. So there is demand, just don't know if the yields are worth it. It's crazy how much more service OKC gets than TUL.


When you employ thousands of people in Tulsa, I'm not surprised.


Sorry but I dont buy that. The last flight I was on from LAX to TUL was actually over sold.


Well do you buy the load factor data?
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:12 pm

jetero wrote:
TerminalD wrote:
I'm not a fan of very specific thread titles that imply there is something solid this is based upon. Nothing to see here. Anything could happen.


Stay tuned for next week. There will be another. He hasn't even delved into international destinations yet.


At least we've left Southwest Ohio.
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FSDan
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:22 pm

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see UA start SFO-CLT, and I'm actually kind of surprised they don't serve it already. Wells Fargo is based in San Fran and has major East Coast operations in Charlotte. It's surprising that UA isn't catering to a potential large corporate customer like that and is basically letting AA have their fill...

To dream for a minute, if UA were to look into serving SFO-Wisconsin, I hope they'd study SFO-MSN (E75) as well as the more obvious SFO-MKE. Madison is a growing tech city (especially health care tech) with a strong corporate travel market and no current West Cost nonstops. However, reality is that SFO is bursting at the seams and a small market like MSN is unlikely to merit service...
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jplatts
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:56 pm

FSDan wrote:
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see UA start SFO-CLT, and I'm actually kind of surprised they don't serve it already. Wells Fargo is based in San Fran and has major East Coast operations in Charlotte. It's surprising that UA isn't catering to a potential large corporate customer like that and is basically letting AA have their fill...


One of the reasons why UA doesn't have nonstop service to CLT from SFO is that US Airways used to be in the Star Alliance with United Airlines prior to the American Airlines-US Airways merger. US Airways also did codeshare with United Airlines prior to the American-US Airways merger, but ended that codeshare relationship, exited the Star Alliance, and switched to the oneworld alliance with the American-US Airways merger. In addition, United MileagePlus miles could also be earned on US Airways flights prior to the American-US Airways merger, but this partnership was ended with the American-US Airways merger.

There is significant demand for flights to the West Coast out of CLT, even though AA is currently the only airline to have nonstop service to the West Coast out of CLT. UA should definitely add SFO to CLT nonstop service as it would improve competition on flights between CLT and the West Coast and as it would give San Francisco Bay Area-based companies easier access to CLT.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:00 pm

What about SFO-RSW? Obviously it would be seasonal, but as the baby boomers continue to seek quiet lives Southwest Florida en masse (while many of their children and grandchildren continue to flock to the West Coast - for active lifestyles, tech careers, etc.), it may now be possible. Connecting through the likes of ATL and ORD around the holidays sucks as a single athletic adult... I can't imagine how bad it is for couples with kids!
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jetero
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:18 pm

jplatts wrote:
One of the reasons why UA doesn't have nonstop service to CLT from SFO is that US Airways used to be in the Star Alliance with United Airlines prior to the American Airlines-US Airways merger. US Airways also did codeshare with United Airlines prior to the American-US Airways merger, but ended that codeshare relationship, exited the Star Alliance, and switched to the oneworld alliance with the American-US Airways merger. In addition, United MileagePlus miles could also be earned on US Airways flights prior to the American-US Airways merger, but this partnership was ended with the American-US Airways merger.


Well that's all news to me. :duck:

(In any case, what does that have to do with the price of tea in China today?)

jplatts wrote:
There is significant demand for flights to the West Coast out of CLT, even though AA is currently the only airline to have nonstop service to the West Coast out of CLT.


You consistently say "there is significant demand" for anything. When one uses such words so loosely without any sense whatsoever of relative magnitude, it certainly confuses the matter.

jplatts wrote:
UA should definitely add SFO to CLT nonstop service as it would improve competition on flights between CLT and the West Coast and as it would give San Francisco Bay Area-based companies easier access to CLT.


More empty thinking.

At its heart, the logic is really no different than:

"I have significant demand to go to Chicago every year. American should add more flights from my hometown to Chicago because there isn't enough competition. And it would give me easier access to Chicago."
 
jplatts
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:09 pm

jetero wrote:
jplatts wrote:
One of the reasons why UA doesn't have nonstop service to CLT from SFO is that US Airways used to be in the Star Alliance with United Airlines prior to the American Airlines-US Airways merger. US Airways also did codeshare with United Airlines prior to the American-US Airways merger, but ended that codeshare relationship, exited the Star Alliance, and switched to the oneworld alliance with the American-US Airways merger. In addition, United MileagePlus miles could also be earned on US Airways flights prior to the American-US Airways merger, but this partnership was ended with the American-US Airways merger.


Well that's all news to me. :duck:

(In any case, what does that have to do with the price of tea in China today?)

jplatts wrote:
There is significant demand for flights to the West Coast out of CLT, even though AA is currently the only airline to have nonstop service to the West Coast out of CLT.


You consistently say "there is significant demand" for anything. When one uses such words so loosely without any sense whatsoever of relative magnitude, it certainly confuses the matter.

jplatts wrote:
UA should definitely add SFO to CLT nonstop service as it would improve competition on flights between CLT and the West Coast and as it would give San Francisco Bay Area-based companies easier access to CLT.


More empty thinking.

At its heart, the logic is really no different than:

"I have significant demand to go to Chicago every year. American should add more flights from my hometown to Chicago because there isn't enough competition. And it would give me easier access to Chicago."


When I refer to markets with "significant demand", I am referring to markets that either can fill at least 3 Southwest 737-700 planes per day (equivalent to 429 passengers/day), or that are in the top 10 destinations from a city with at least 100,000 passengers per year, or are underserved markets that can fill at least 1 Southwest 737-700 plane (which seats 143 passengers) per day. The sources that I am using to support the "significant demand" argument include the DOT Domestic Airline Consumer Airfare Report (found at https://www.transportation.gov/policy/aviation-policy/domestic-airline-consumer-airfare-report) and the BTS Airport Statistics (found at https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp).

There is significant demand for CLT-LAX nonstop service as AA does 6 daily nonstops between CLT and LAX and as there is on average over 900 passengers a day who travel between CLT and LAX (according to the DOT Domestic Airline Consumer Report). While AA currently has room to accommodate those travelling between CLT and LAX on its 6 LAX-CLT nonstops, there is room for DL, UA, or WN to serve LAX nonstop from CLT since competition is really needed on the CLT-LAX route and since AA is the only airline to serve LAX nonstop from CLT.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:12 pm

jetero wrote:
"I have significant demand to go to Chicago every year. American should add more flights from my hometown to Chicago because there isn't enough competition. And it would give me easier access to Chicago."


Most of the markets that see significant demand from Chicago already have nonstop service out of ORD on both American Airlines and United Airlines. In addition, most all of the destinations that Southwest Airlines serves already have nonstop service to MDW.
 
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:10 pm

jplatts wrote:
When I refer to markets with "significant demand", I am referring to markets that either can fill at least 3 Southwest 737-700 planes per day (equivalent to 429 passengers/day), or that are in the top 10 destinations from a city with at least 100,000 passengers per year, or are underserved markets that can fill at least 1 Southwest 737-700 plane (which seats 143 passengers) per day. The sources that I am using to support the "significant demand" argument include the DOT Domestic Airline Consumer Airfare Report (found at https://www.transportation.gov/policy/aviation-policy/domestic-airline-consumer-airfare-report) and the BTS Airport Statistics (found at https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp).

There is significant demand for CLT-LAX nonstop service as AA does 6 daily nonstops between CLT and LAX and as there is on average over 900 passengers a day who travel between CLT and LAX (according to the DOT Domestic Airline Consumer Report). While AA currently has room to accommodate those travelling between CLT and LAX on its 6 LAX-CLT nonstops, there is room for DL, UA, or WN to serve LAX nonstop from CLT since competition is really needed on the CLT-LAX route and since AA is the only airline to serve LAX nonstop from CLT.


Well jplatts, hate to burst your bubble but in all of your analyses you have more than likely been overstating demand by a factor of 2. The 900 passengers is 2-way. You need to divide by 2 or else you're double counting.

PPDEW CLT-LAX for last 4 quarters:

Q2 16: 376

Q3 16: 370

Q4 16: 390

Q1 16: 316

(Not sure where 900 comes from, although I figure it's approximately 2 times these numbers.)

DFW/DAL-SDF (you've brought this one up a couple times):

Q2 16: 160

Q3 16: 136

Q4 16: 145

Q1 16: 130

Still think these are no-brainers?
 
jetero
Posts: 1522
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:45 am

Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:11 pm

jplatts wrote:
jetero wrote:
"I have significant demand to go to Chicago every year. American should add more flights from my hometown to Chicago because there isn't enough competition. And it would give me easier access to Chicago."


Most of the markets that see significant demand from Chicago already have nonstop service out of ORD on both American Airlines and United Airlines. In addition, most all of the destinations that Southwest Airlines serves already have nonstop service to MDW.


Well, once again, you have it all figured out.
 
phlwok
Posts: 450
Joined: Mon May 28, 2007 11:41 am

Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:42 am

The test for new service for an airline generally needs to include:
- Can a nonstop be more profitable than routing through a hub? Can a premium be charged for a nonstop?
- Is equipment available or coming soon to operate it?
- Is equipment better used on a nonstop versus on another route?
- Can the equipment be better used on other routes, or on a greater number of shorter flights, rather than a few long ones?
- What is the competition doing? Is it worth battling for market share?
- Does gate, slot, etc capacity exist at the hub, and if not, should other flights be dropped for these?
And so on.

Route planning is a lot more than just "we should serve this nonstop". Routes like SFO-JAX might be nice, but come at a high price in terms of tying one or more planes up for most of a day, when perhaps they could make a lot more money on a greater number of shorter flights, and the passengers could easily connect in IAH, DEN, even ORD or LAX potentially.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Will UA add nonstop service from SFO to CMH, CLT, ICT, JAX, MKE, SDF, or TUL?

Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:03 am

It's getting harder to connect the dots these days when you can get to almost any part of the country from another in 1 stop on the world's 3 biggest airlines. Taking SFO-CLT as an example, there are one stops from all other UA hubs except LAX, as well as DL, and WN and even AA, nonstop service notwithstanding, and then the ULCCs.
"It's not getting to the land of the nonrev that's the problem, it's getting back." ~~Captain Hector Barbossa

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