jmc1975
Topic Author
Posts: 2932
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2000 10:57 am

North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:26 pm

With what appears to be some rather drastic changes coming soon for North Korea, what can we expect in the short- and long-term for commercial aviation service and infrastructure after the Kim Jung-Un regime is toppled? There are some expectations that once that happens, there will be a long, slow road to unification with South Korea...the slowness being driven by the imbalance of economic imbalance between the two....think 1991 German unification, only more extreme.

Let's discuss what this scenario would look like and the sequence of events and developments that would follow:

Wouldn't it be likely that Air Koryo would simply cease operations?

Would we see the likes of Korean Air and Asiana step in and offer Pyongyang service from either ICN or GMP, and perhaps CJU or PUS?

Would Air China ramp up service between PEK and FNJ? Would other Pacific-rim airlines attempt to jump in to offer service as well?

The next obstacle would then be infrastructure at FNJ. Could FNJ in its current state even withstand an onslaught of foreign airlines service without significant expansion? Who would theoretically fund the expansion?

Are there any other North Korean cities worthy of immediate airline service once the country enters that new era?

REQUEST: Please let's discuss what this all could potentially look like without jumping all over eachother's political views.
.......
 
32andBelow
Posts: 3080
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:28 pm

If North Korea is toppled there won't be much of a North Korea to fly to.
 
User avatar
pvjin
Posts: 3614
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:52 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:41 pm

jmc1975 wrote:
With what appears to be some rather drastic changes coming soon for North Korea


Some of big words from Trump and Jong Un don't mean anything is actually going to happen. I bet the regime will be still around 20 years from now.

Anyway, if it (violent end of the North Korean regime)did happen and the regime got toppled I would expect UN humanitarian aid flights and military operations to make most of North Korea's air traffic for quite a while. After the chaos ends civilian traffic would start growing slowly.

Another story would be a situation where the regime didn't collapse but instead would start slow democratization and opening up of the country. Right now there are no signs whatsoever of that happening any time soon.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
User avatar
ojjunior
Posts: 391
Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:31 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:45 pm

Why does anyone still care about NK ???
Who cares about the future of that country? No one knew they existed until the current dictator began to appear on TV, now everyone says they are worried ...
C'mon.
 
hawk2100n
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2015 6:25 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:58 pm

I find it unlikely that commercial air service would resume rapidly but perhaps within a year depending on the situation. Korean Air would likely be the first entrant in my opinion, especially as a matter of prestige and reunification. Remember that Air Koryo isn't allowed to fly to Europe or most of the first world and that brand would likely go away. I'd expect land routes to expand, they have a pretty good road system between cities but I would expect lots of infrastructure rebuilding to take place. Air China would be another story, because recall history that China unconditionally supported Kim Il-sung and has remained DPRK's lone ally. One of the trickiest things to not descend into all-out war in Asia would be to make sure that China doesn't feel threatened by an expansion of ROK or US Mil presence. So I could imagine something similar to a US-CUBA situation (no scheduled flights, only specially permitted charter flights) where Unified Korea is the pariah in that area for a while. Just visited ROK in July and flew J on KE18 LAX-ICN. Excellent airline and needs more exposure and routes.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
Posts: 107
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:29 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:00 pm

In the hypothecial case of a unified Korea (lets just ignore any damage that a conflict could cause)

My guess is FNJ will likely get flights from GMP. RGO, DSO, YJS and WOS might eventually get some but as you said infrastructure is almost non existant outstide of the current capital. I do think air traffic will be important at the beginning simply because of the sheer need to be able to move around quickly. But these flights will be from the south or China, there might be a small burst in tourism depending on the situation.

I could see a Seoul - Pyeongyang high speed line eventually so that would make a dent in traffic for such a short sector but hopefully by then the situation will be different. Pyeongyang is far from being Busan though...


Highly speculative of course. And this is ignoring things such as how North Koreans would react if something like this happened.
 
Cunard
Posts: 575
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:45 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:16 pm

ojjunior wrote:
Why does anyone still care about NK ???
Who cares about the future of that country? No one knew they existed until the current dictator began to appear on TV, now everyone says they are worried ...
C'mon.


You are aware of the long history of North Korea and its hostile regime and the fact it's got nuclear capability and constantly aggrevating the situation with the outside world and in particular the USA.

You may be the only one but I can assure you that the majority of people are aware of North Korea and it's constant rhetoric so yes we all are concerned with the latest developments on the Korean Peninsula so I suggest you should be to.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 9186
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:35 pm

ojjunior wrote:
Why does anyone still care about NK ???

1) because there's millions of people suffering there, through no fault of their own
2) there's a military with massive conventional artillery aimed at one of the most populous megalopolises in the world
3) and then, add nukes to the equation


ojjunior wrote:
Who cares about the future of that country?

Anyone who's not a total tosser


ojjunior wrote:
No one knew they existed

Try not to confuse your own (blatantly obvious) ignorance with anyone else
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
csavel
Posts: 1313
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 9:38 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:45 pm

jmc1975 wrote:

REQUEST: Please let's discuss what this all could potentially look like without jumping all over eachother's political views.


Quite frankly, the topic itself can be considered to have a political view ("once the regime is toppled," as if it is inevitable i.e. Saddam Hussein in Iraq). So it would be hard NOT to mix politics and aviation.

That being said, assuming that either Kim Jong Un is gone and there is a "transitional" government that is on the road to normalization or the Kim regime gives up nukes and begins its own normalization, then we can see pretty much all East Asian airlines flying into Pyongyang, perhaps Korean or Asiana would fly to Chongjin, Wonsan and a few other secondary cities. Except for some Chinese airlines, I can't imagin any Asian airline flying into a North Korean city other than Pyongyang. No North American Airlines nor European airlines for a loooong time.

That wouldn't include, as has been said upthread, all the humanitarian UN flights that would happen.

Air Koryo dies perhaps to be resurrected as an interesting "aero tour" niche line for av-geeks. Seoul to Pyongyang in an IL-18.

The likelihood of this happening is slim as the only way a nuclear Kim gets toppled is if it happens from within - by disgruntled army top staff ready and willing to deal with the west and by a West ready to bribe these people so they know they'll keep their relative elite status.
Last edited by csavel on Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
 
sw733
Posts: 5522
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 6:19 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:50 pm

ojjunior wrote:
Why does anyone still care about NK ???
Who cares about the future of that country? No one knew they existed until the current dictator began to appear on TV, now everyone says they are worried ...
C'mon.


There are over 25 million people in North Korea, including nearly 3 million of the (relatively) most well off in Pyongyang. If North Korea collapsed, some aspect of North Korea would need air service...it's worth discussing what that air service would be. So many other ridiculous hypothetical questions/threads on this website (when will Southwest fly their soon-to-be ordered A380s to Pago Pago?), this one is at least timely and possible.
 
User avatar
hispanola
Posts: 191
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2011 11:13 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:56 pm

ojjunior wrote:
Why does anyone still care about NK ???
Who cares about the future of that country? No one knew they existed until the current dictator began to appear on TV, now everyone says they are worried ...
C'mon.


I think he means Spirit Airlines (NK/NKS) ;)
From Co. Down living in PNA.
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 1716
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:59 pm

pvjin wrote:
Another story would be a situation where the regime didn't collapse but instead would start slow democratization and opening up of the country. Right now there are no signs whatsoever of that happening any time soon.


I agree, a Burma/Myanmar slow type transformation is the more likely way North Korea will progress I would suggest. At least I hope so, because the current rhetoric and propaganda (both sides) is somewhat of a concern.

From an aviation perspective this would mean a very slow opening of airspace, over a prolonged period of time.
 
Cunard
Posts: 575
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:45 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:26 pm

I wouldn't hold your breath regarding the 25 years, the situation has got as worse as it's ever been and the current the rhetoric from all concerned is worrying not only for the Korean Peninsula and its neighbors Japan and the Philipines along with Guam and Hawaii it's also a worry to the entire world as a nuclear attack would have dire consequences for everyone.
 
Jayafe
Posts: 419
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:12 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:36 pm

ojjunior wrote:
Why does anyone still care about NK ???
Who cares about the future of that country? No one knew they existed until the current dictator began to appear on TV, now everyone says they are worried ...
C'mon.


When you say no one knew it existed, you actually mean you and... who else? Head out of the sand, please
 
User avatar
CanadaFair
Posts: 1051
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 5:22 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:43 pm

China said it will be on NK side if US attacks first, but if NK does first it will remain neutral..
 
c933103
Posts: 1278
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:40 am

I think, after the fall of North Korea, as in if that would actually happens in the short term, I don't think integration will begin immediately. Not improbable for the area would be kept as a post war occupation zone for a few years until finally integrate with South Korea in order to rebuild basic society structure and prevent a shock on the South Korean society.
 
PanHAM
Posts: 9287
Joined: Fri May 06, 2005 6:44 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:40 am

There won't be a Situation in NK which would allow the start of civilian aviation (not to "resume" since there never was one) as the rest of he world enjoys. China does not allow a re.unification and probably not Japan either, as this would destroy the Balance of powers in the Region.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
VSMUT
Posts: 1158
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:31 am

jmc1975 wrote:
With what appears to be some rather drastic changes coming soon for North Korea, what can we expect in the short- and long-term for commercial aviation service and infrastructure after the Kim Jung-Un regime is toppled?


A bit presumptuous to assume that they will be toppled, don't you think?

Even if they did get toppled, I agree with those who say that there wouldn't by anything left to fly to. Same goes for large parts of South Korea. We wouldn't be discussing the rebuilding of North Korean commercial airline traffic on here, we would be discussing the rebuilding of the South Korean airlines and airports...
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 3362
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:40 am

The most likely scenario is that the DPRK will implode if that happens the chances are that there will be a DDR scenario. I can see Korean Air and Asiana Airlines swooping into Pyongyang airport. Air Koryo Korean Airways will seas to exist, just like Interflug GmbH.

When this will happen is any bodies guess, could be one year from now or five or ten or 25 years.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
lapper
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2002 6:42 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:39 am

pvjin wrote:
jmc1975 wrote:
With what appears to be some rather drastic changes coming soon for North Korea


Some of big words from Trump and Jong Un don't mean anything is actually going to happen. I bet the regime will be still around 20 years from now.


Just a correction for corrections sake... Trump is the surname for The Donald, Jong-Un is the "given name" for Kim.
 
JayBCNLON
Posts: 144
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:13 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:01 am

Wonsan Kalma airport has a brand new terminal and there was a major air show and north korea's first international beer festival last September held there. To me it looks that North Korea is/was planning to open up. Here the extensive YouTube clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp8WdUO ... ture=share
When you watch this video you cannot but think "building an airport like this doesn't mean you want to go to war albeit nuclear extinction but you rather are planning for entry into the world"
 
User avatar
CanadaFair
Posts: 1051
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 5:22 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:24 am

JayBCNLON wrote:
Wonsan Kalma airport has a brand new terminal and there was a major air show and north korea's first international beer festival last September held there. To me it looks that North Korea is/was planning to open up. Here the extensive YouTube clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp8WdUO ... ture=share
When you watch this video you cannot but think "building an airport like this doesn't mean you want to go to war albeit nuclear extinction but you rather are planning for entry into the world"


Visas were also to be increased and tourism promoted.
 
Cunard
Posts: 575
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:45 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:59 pm

Your being too polite to the OP by using terms like that after all he is only 12! :-)
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Crew
Posts: 12910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:05 pm

Discuss the topic, not other users.

The scenario is what/how commercial air service would transition.
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
airzona11
Posts: 695
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:51 am

IF the regime is toppled, I think there would be a surge in demand in ICN accompanying North Korea demand. Lots of human capital that can be used to build and become consumers. If the people have freedom, there are property rights and a fair judicial system (3 things all prosperous companies have), no reason it can join the first world.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:37 am

lightsaber wrote:
Discuss the topic, not other users.

The scenario is what/how commercial air service would transition.

I did...and yet my post was deleted... What's the use of taking the time to contribute to these fora, when your posts are deleted for no good reason ever so often? I'm seriously thinking of goving up this entire site because of this.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 11316
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:53 am

Several new routes to FNJ are being planned at the moment, most of these are not planning on landing there.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
User avatar
VirginFlyer
Posts: 4729
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2000 12:27 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:39 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Discuss the topic, not other users.

The scenario is what/how commercial air service would transition.

I did...and yet my post was deleted... What's the use of taking the time to contribute to these fora, when your posts are deleted for no good reason ever so often? I'm seriously thinking of goving up this entire site because of this.

Is it possible the post you were quoting from was deleted?

V/F
"It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
PanHAM
Posts: 9287
Joined: Fri May 06, 2005 6:44 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:46 am

That's the old joke about a conversation between ATC and a BA Pilot about to land at FRA.
ATC: Sir , have you been to FRA before?" BA Pilot: yes but we did not land.
Back to NK, The Regime may build new new and shiny Airports, but the supreme Goal is survival.. The Situation is not comparable with the two Germanies. May be I Change my mind when direct flights between ICN or Cheju and a Destination in NK are established..
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
JayBCNLON
Posts: 144
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:13 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:55 am

lightsaber wrote:
Discuss the topic, not other users.

The scenario is what/how commercial air service would transition.

I also think this comment by an "OP" is premature and therefore inappropriate. Premature and inappropriate comments like this undermine the authority of the OPs which they need in instances where it is required. I call on this OP to rethink and act wisely. I have paid to use this site and expect that.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:59 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Discuss the topic, not other users.

The scenario is what/how commercial air service would transition.

I did...and yet my post was deleted... What's the use of taking the time to contribute to these fora, when your posts are deleted for no good reason ever so often? I'm seriously thinking of goving up this entire site because of this.

Is it possible the post you were quoting from was deleted?

V/F

Possibly, but then, what is the meaning of quoting somebody, if your whole post gets deleted by it?

I'm probably off these fora soon...freakin' waste of time, oftenmost due to inept moderators.
 
User avatar
VirginFlyer
Posts: 4729
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2000 12:27 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:47 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
I did...and yet my post was deleted... What's the use of taking the time to contribute to these fora, when your posts are deleted for no good reason ever so often? I'm seriously thinking of goving up this entire site because of this.

Is it possible the post you were quoting from was deleted?

V/F

Possibly, but then, what is the meaning of quoting somebody, if your whole post gets deleted by it?

I'm probably off these fora soon...freakin' waste of time, oftenmost due to inept moderators.

It has been a long time thing (predating when I served as a moderator between 2004 and 2006) that if a post is deleted because it violates the rules of the forums, subsequent posts which quote it or directly respond to it would also be deleted (otherwise the material being deleted remains on the forum, defeating the purpose of deleting posts which break forum rules in the first place). In the old forum software you would get an email letting you know why the post had been deleted - we rewrote the email template to expressly clarify this sort of situation as being one where the user isn't at fault, and is welcome to repost their post minus the part which quotes a deleted post. The emails made this quite easy by including a copy of the deleted post. Unfortunately the new forum software doesn't have an option to be emailed about a deleted post. Hopefully this is something to be fixed.

I've found if you email the moderators (moderators@airliners.net) they are quite responsive to questions, even if the outcome isn't the one you are seeking.

V/F
"It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
sc1207
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:20 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:37 am

TBH I think there are far too many variables for any discussion around this to be sensible. If the North is toppled, at what cost? Before thinking about what airlines or military flights can make use of NK's airports, do they still exist? And for that matter, does South Korea still exist as we know it? ICN, GMP, CJU etc. would seem like big fat juicy targets to me if I was in command of NK's missiles, artillery pieces and, of course, nukes (although I doubt they could send one to the US, South Korea is literally on their doorstep). Regarding Air China flights into NK, did China side with NK and defend them? Did the Chinese side with the South? Lots of uncertainties here people. But, I would be inclined to believe that there won't be much of a North or South Korea left after a confrontation like this
 
c933103
Posts: 1278
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:30 am

Actually, if a reunification is to occur in a rather short and peaceful time in a complete peaceful way with the South dominating the effort and without much resistance from North, given that FNJ is only 100-something km away from Seoul and ICN, and surely a high speed rail link linking Pyongyang to Seoul and ICN will happen shortly after reunification, and the South Korean government policy to develop ICN into a hub, I don't think major development would occur at FNJ, although regional routes can be established with the demand of travel into Pyongyang and also the demand of Pyongyang the city itself after its development being pushed back on track.
On the other hand I think air shuttle service to Northeastern Korean could become a busy air route especially with the shape of roads and rails there.
 
uta999
Posts: 330
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: North Korean Commercial Aviation in the New Era

Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:32 am

Any conflict, once it starts would quickly go nuclear. Once that happens this thread will need to widen to include, Japan, China, HK, Taiwan and Russia. Civil aviation would evaporate in the region.
Then China and Russia could become involved militarily, in which case it's academic.
Your computer just got better

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos