AvGod
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US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:05 am

Do you think the US Legacy carriers that plan to operate the 737 MAX( UA and AA ) will follow follow in the footsteps of DY in operating them on East Coast-Western Euro routes, or will these planes be isolated to US domestic and North America / Pacific ops?
 
Andy33
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:21 am

Are all the 737 MAX planes on order by AA and UA specified for over-water operations, let alone ETOPS?
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:27 am

Andy33 wrote:
Are all the 737 MAX planes on order by AA and UA specified for over-water operations, let alone ETOPS?


Neither are the planes Norwegian uses for their TATL flights. However, in the north atlantic there's no need for it since in case of an emergency you're never more than two hours away from Canada / Greenland / Iceland / Ireland. Any 737 can make that trip.

However, most legacies are not as adventurous as the LCCs. They'll stick to larger aircraft on high density routes. I won't say it'll never happen, but I don't see it happening on short term.
 
skipness1E
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:35 am

Any 737 cannot. Only an ETOPS aircraft with appropriate life rafts and emergency equipment can fly the direct route, otherwise major detour involved to stay closer to land. This is why non ETOPS B737s deployed by D8 take way longer adding to delays.
Only 2 AC A319s are used to LHR and only a subset of WS B737 fleet is ever seen in Europe.

ETOPS is not all about range.
 
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OA940
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:13 am

They could, but they won't.
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FriscoHeavy
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:04 pm

I bet they eventually will run some flights on 737s.
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DaveFly
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:17 pm

United and Delta have utilized 757s on Transatlantic routes. As the 757s wind down, it's possible that they'd use another narrowbody, namely the 737, on some of those routes.
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VC10er
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:41 pm

I personally think that an all premium 737 MAX would be great to see them try out. As a business flier, if it could offer some time and convenience advantages to airports like London City, I'd personally give it a go.
I just can't see either actually doing it. But it would be a nice surprise.
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32andBelow
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:18 pm

DaveFly wrote:
United and Delta have utilized 757s on Transatlantic routes. As the 757s wind down, it's possible that they'd use another narrowbody, namely the 737, on some of those routes.

American uses 757 on PHLAMS
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:00 pm

FriscoHeavy wrote:
I bet they eventually will run some flights on 737s.


I wouldn't say never. I don't expect it in the short term - not less than five years, while UA and DL still have viable 757s in lie-flat configs.
 
rrapynot
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:05 pm

Not only are United, Delta and American currently using the 757, so have Northwest, US Airways and Continental before them. One of the legacies will test the waters with a Boston to Glasgow flight, or something similar.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:38 pm

A lot will depend on the seating configuration on board. If any equip the front cabin with a handful of layflats, then it's more likely. If using the standard domestic F seat, then only opportunity would be to VFR markets.

There have been some rubblings at UA about equipping some of the Max fleet with lie flats but most have been for the -10 which will not have the range.

Of the domestic legacies, I expect UA is most likely to run a Max across the pond. AA has A321neos coming that are probably a better option economically due to their larger size. I doubt DL will any time soon since they haven't even placed and order for Max or Neo.

Another possibility is JetBlue with their NEOs.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:10 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
A lot will depend on the seating configuration on board. If any equip the front cabin with a handful of layflats, then it's more likely. If using the standard domestic F seat, then only opportunity would be to VFR markets.

There have been some rubblings at UA about equipping some of the Max fleet with lie flats but most have been for the -10 which will not have the range.

Of the domestic legacies, I expect UA is most likely to run a Max across the pond. AA has A321neos coming that are probably a better option economically due to their larger size. I doubt DL will any time soon since they haven't even placed and order for Max or Neo.

Another possibility is JetBlue with their NEOs.

I agree JetBlue is more likely. They have pushed range before...

AA with A321NEOs is possible.
UA is the only one with the MAX possible... I think likely after later PIPs.

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uberflieger
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:52 pm

The only way legacies can compete with the rise of long haul LCCs is hub to partner hub or market with good sized planes and a healthy mix of premium travelers. Employee and overall cost is simply too high.

Jetblue on the other hand has the economics to profitably fly smaller planes over long distances and BOS is the ideal hub to reach most of Continental Europe, just like Aer Lingus on the other side of the Atlantic. Both will operate Airbus though.

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LAXintl
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:30 am

At recent UA crew event, this was asked.
Answer was no - there are no plans for 737MAX Atlantic ops, however, the aircraft will be OW+ETOPS so Hawaii, and Latin Am ops are envisaged.
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Channex757
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:34 am

VC10er wrote:
I personally think that an all premium 737 MAX would be great to see them try out. As a business flier, if it could offer some time and convenience advantages to airports like London City, I'd personally give it a go.
I just can't see either actually doing it. But it would be a nice surprise.

won't happen, they are simply too big and heavy for LCY as well as the fuel and runway issues.

The biggest jet allowed at LCY is the A318 of British Airways. Even that is a compromise operation that needs to stop in Ireland for fuel.
 
boeing773er
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:03 am

Over time possibly. The original A320 series was horrible when it came to range (not sure about 737NG). But over time as tech got better, the range improved. Not sure what boeing's plans are for MOM but if those plans don't pan out then maybe they will offer another ER product.
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par13del
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:12 am

Bigger issue flying to Europe is finding enough secondary airports to make it worthwhile, Gatwick got abandoned as soon as LHR was available, with what those slots cost, a good ROI is required. A number of secondary airports exist on the US side to be viable with smaller a/c, the financial issue of bypassing your own hub is a problem for the US3.
Look at BA's expansion into the US, they have the slots so are hitting more secondary US airports, the US3 cannot match that into LHR.
 
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N644US
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:51 am

par13del wrote:
Bigger issue flying to Europe is finding enough secondary airports to make it worthwhile, Gatwick got abandoned as soon as LHR was available, with what those slots cost, a good ROI is required. A number of secondary airports exist on the US side to be viable with smaller a/c, the financial issue of bypassing your own hub is a problem for the US3.
Look at BA's expansion into the US, they have the slots so are hitting more secondary US airports, the US3 cannot match that into LHR.


Gatwick itself is not the best example of a secondary airport. Secondary airports include destinations like SNN, GLA, etc., that are not feasibly operated using a wide-body aircraft that an airline uses (ie. UA would not send a 76W on EWR-GLA). LGW does not count as a secondary airport, seeing as it already serves a large population base (London). LGW was abandoned for LHR because of the premium that existed leaving from LHR over LGW, not because airlines did not find the ROI on LGW.

US3 carriers are not going the way of BA in terms of their TATL expansion. You bring up the issue of bypassing hubs as an issue for the US3, when that simply isn't the case. While secondary airports do exist on the NA side of the pond, these are most likely not going to be used for TATL ops by the US3. They will most likely retain the hub-and-spoke method, using 737MAXs or A320neos to fly from their hubs (JFK, BOS, etc.) to smaller European destinations not currently flown by their current fleet of 757s, 767s, A330s, etc.

Seeing as a lie-flat seat in J (really, the only way to be competitive TATL) would take up a lot of space, it's likely that most airlines would only place these seats on larger MAXs (like the MAX9 and MAX10).

It's stated that the MAX10 has a range of 3215nm (compared to the 321neoLR's range of 3700nm). Winds and ETOPS fuel aside, these aircraft could theoretically take over smaller routes that are currently operated using a 75W, or could be used in the wintertime to maintain year-round service on some routes. Most routes that can be operated today to smaller markets are already served, with airports like EDI, GLA, and more already seeing service from the US3.

From JFK and EWR, the shortest routes are already pushing the 3215nm envelope with JFK-LHR being 3000nm and JFK-CDG being 3160nm. While a MAX would never see those types of routes, it seems as if the range the MAX10 offers would not be enough to operate many TATL routes, with ops being limited mostly to Ireland and the UK from JFK. As a result, it's likely that smaller destinations like SNN, EDI, GLA, and more would be operated soon with a MAX.

BOS, however, is a totally different story. Being much closer to Europe, new options could be in store for the US3. All 3 airlines have a strong presence in BOS, and do have some sort of route structure to make TATL possible. DL is the most likely of the 3 to start smaller routes from BOS, with the most hub-like presence (and currently existing transatlantic flights). While the main 4 airports (DUB, LHR, AMS, and CDG) are already covered, it seems that other markets (like MUC, FRA, MUC, and ZRH) would all be possible, if not a stretch of the MAX10's range. These, of course, would have to rely on connections and O+D in the Boston area to work and would compete with pre-existing services on other carriers (LH, IB, and LX respectively). AA is less-developed hub-wise but manages to have one TATL flight from BOS (to CDG). It;s unlikely that AA would compete with BA for market share on BOS-LHR seeing as they have a JV, so LHR is most likely out of the question. That aside, smaller airports like DUB, FRA, and others may potentially work, filling in gaps in the TATL network. These routes, however, would have little-to-no connection opportunity in BOS and would rely solely on O+D traffic, reducing the likelihood of any of these routes. In addition, it's likely that AA and its fleet of A321s would be better suited with the A321neoLR for the range. UA would have a tough time operating from BOS, with flights only to the key hubs. It would, however, be adventurous to see routes like BOS-LHR be attempted with a MAX, seeing as the demand may be present.
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TWA772LR
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:07 am

We'll see what happens with the US3's MAX and neo fleets when they release the configs. If they are lay-flat, then TATL isn't far fetched.
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Varsity1
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:16 am

uberflieger wrote:
The only way legacies can compete with the rise of long haul LCCs is hub to partner hub or market with good sized planes and a healthy mix of premium travelers. Employee and overall cost is simply too high.

Jetblue on the other hand has the economics to profitably fly smaller planes over long distances and BOS is the ideal hub to reach most of Continental Europe, just like Aer Lingus on the other side of the Atlantic. Both will operate Airbus though.

:airplane:


There isn't an LCC flying the atlantic right now that is profitable, never has been either.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:31 am

LAXintl wrote:
At recent UA crew event, this was asked.
Answer was no - there are no plans for 737MAX Atlantic ops, however, the aircraft will be OW+ETOPS so Hawaii, and Latin Am ops are envisaged.

So pretty much what the current 737 fleet is used for. Any plans for GUM? Or will the NGs go there to retire?
"It's not getting to the land of the nonrev that's the problem, it's getting back." ~~Captain Hector Barbossa
 
atl100million
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Re: US Legacy Carriers 737 MAX TATL?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:46 am

uberflieger wrote:
The only way legacies can compete with the rise of long haul LCCs is hub to partner hub or market with good sized planes and a healthy mix of premium travelers. Employee and overall cost is simply too high.

Jetblue on the other hand has the economics to profitably fly smaller planes over long distances and BOS is the ideal hub to reach most of Continental Europe, just like Aer Lingus on the other side of the Atlantic. Both will operate Airbus though.

:airplane:


B6 continues to toss around concepts for transatlantic flying but still is not convinced that the A321LR NEO could serve much of the Atlantic - and even from BOS, there are few routes which other carriers do not already serve, often with larger aircraft. It is hard enough for a carrier to start a new route with other competitors but B6 will face an entire industry trying to make sure B6 doesn't succeed at transatlantic flying.

Although Norwegian is putting a few widebody routes in markets that are directly competitive with legacy carriers, most of their narrowbody flying is in new small markets from airports on one side of the Atlantic or the other that do not have transatlantic service. Norwegian so far is not the picture of financial success. B6 cannot subsidize transatlantic operations and maintain its investor appeal.

Profitable low cost carrier transatlantic flights are still not a certainty.

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