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Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 8:56 am

What do you all think? Where do you predict WN opening up. They have a record of opening a new station each year. What'll it be?

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thomacf
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 10:03 am

I don't understand why they haven't started service into CVG and TOL.
 
IMissPiedmont
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 11:02 am

CVG is easy. WN does not attack the other hubs head on. TOL probably doesn't have enough traffic to attract them either. Too close to CLE and PIT I think.

Of course considering their 15% increase in staff, they certainly have something huge in mind. Time will tell.
The day you stop learning is the day you should die.
 
BA
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 11:10 am

They've been talking about COS for the past 2 years...........
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
travellin'man
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 11:45 am

Portland, Maine...please!!!!
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rooinc
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 11:50 am

I am rooting for CLT!!!

--TJ
 
Skyway1
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 11:53 am

I would always hear rumors WN was going into MKE, but nobody wanted them, especially Midwest Express. MKE is probably too close to the MDW hub anyway.

Chris
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 11:54 am

Telluride, CO Big grin
 
prosa
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 1:41 pm

Given WN's success at ISP, I wouldn't be surprised to see them move into another New York-area airport. ABE and SWF are probably the most likely candidates.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
FATFlyer
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 2:23 pm

Unless there is a major implosion of a competitor, I believe WN will continue its current pattern and add regions with a MSA population of roughly 1 to 1.5 million people. I think the short list looks like this:
Milwaukee, Charlotte, Greensboro, Rochester, Grand Rapids, Richmond, Greenville-Spartanburg, Dayton, Fresno, Syracuse.

That's about 3 or 4 years of growth. Others such as COS or ICT will come after that.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
DCA-ROCguy
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FATFlyer

Fri Feb 22, 2002 2:50 pm

Actually, FATFlyer, it's likely that there will be an implosion of a major competitor in the next two years...US Airways. Their cash and ability to sell and lease back a/c will hold them for at least this year, but US probably won't survive 2003.

The articles about their hiring 4,000 people indicate that they want to put most of these people at BWI, MDW, and OAK. Around OAK, WN already serves most airports in areas of 1-1.5 million people or more; they're probably just beefing up their service and adding semi-transcons to MDW. (Who knows, maybe FAT will get lucky.  Big grin )

So expansion will probably be into cities around MDW and BWI. All the cities you listed sound like reasonable candidates to me. I'm personally praying (and writing letters for) Rochester. Fortunately, we have very assertive local officials who have successfully lured JetBlue and AirTran; maybe WN will be next.

There have been threads to death about NYC airports for WN...I agree with the suggestion above about SWF and/or ABE. TTN's runway is too short and wealthy super-NIMBY's have the county (the airport operator) in their pocket. HPN, similarly, is surrounded by wealthy super-NIMBY's who would go ape at the thought of a low-fare airline bringing hoi polloi and noise into their airport. ABE's more likely, in my view, because it could draw from Philly too.

But as I said, my prayers are for Rochester.

Jim
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afitch7881
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RE: FATFlyer

Fri Feb 22, 2002 5:36 pm

I believe its going to be ROC. In the last anoucnement of Norfolk, didnt they say Richmond was going to be within the next year or 2?

ABE would be a good choice along with ROC or possibly SYR.


Eric

 
L-188
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Fri Feb 22, 2002 9:26 pm

Please Please Please!!!

Come to Anchorage.....We can't stand the Alaska Lower 48 Monopoly...IT SUCKS!!!! Pissed
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chrisnh
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 3:13 am

sometime in the future Portland, Maine may be added. But right now, PWM is so very seasonal and hardly has a metro area to draw from (like Manchester does). In fact, MHT's served area includes the southern coast of Maine, so that further constrains the market for PWM. Southwest isn't likely to canibalize one station (esp. one as successful as MHT) by setting up shop only 100 miles away at another. With my folks living in Kennebunkport and me living in southern NH, I see the fortunes of both airports. I remember in the mid-1980s when PWM had DL 757s several times a day, People Express 737s to EWR, and all sorts of action. By comparison, Manchester had a few turbo-props a day to LGA and EWR. Now look at both airports...incredible to see the reversals in fortunes.
 
woodsboy
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 3:16 am

L-188 is RIGHT ON TARGET!
Anchorage would be a great move for Southwest, I hope someone at WN is reading the forums. Seattle Airlines, err, I mean Alaska Airlines monopoly in Anchorage SUX!!! We would welcome Southwest in Alaska. Maybe even if they did like Reno did, do Anchorage AND Fairbanks. We are absolutely in a strangelhold in Fairbanks with Alaska as our only choice since Delta retreated in November and now only serve Anchorage.

I know most of you out there read this and think- Anchorage?? What the hell?? Does anybody even live in Alaska?? Its okay, we are use to being totally ignored and forgotten not to mention sadly misunderstood!
 
FATFlyer
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 3:16 am

DCA-ROC,

US is one but don't forget that UA and AWA are still struggling also. IF, one of them was to implode, I would not be surprised to see a Federal Govt. bailout along the lines of the Chrysler move. The industry is not in a financial position for others to quickly replace the service lost in an implosion. The voter outcry would be hard for Congress to ignore. But that is a discussion for another thread.

Looking at media reports across the country about the 4000 new employees, it appears that there will be 5-10% increases in employees at most existing stations. Some is due to new security changes, but some may be due to additional service in existing cities. Some examples: 9 employees in Birmingham, 10 in Austin.
http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/stories/2002/02/18/daily14.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2002/02/18/daily12.html

The articles also mention 250 pilots which someone more familiar with scheduling can tell us how many aircraft that indicates.

I would be surprised to see a bold move against a competitor this year. The only possibility would be ABE. More likely we will a new city we already expect such as RIC.

Like ROC, FAT has been aggressive in pursuing service. The recent media mentions of FAT by CO for future service with the new 145XR, HA for future FAT service to the islands, and F9 for future JetExpress service indicate a lot of growth in the next 2 years. WN is the big fish. With area growth since they closed the FAT Morris Air station in the merger along with taking care of WN's terminal concerns (new expanded parking, new freeway access, 4 new jetway equipped gates, and a major terminal remodel will be complete this summer) I look for WN to add FAT in 2003 or 2004.

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
mjzair
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 3:23 am

Newburgh (SWF) NEEDS WN in a bad way. Airfares are ridiculous, and there isn't enough service since Midway went bust.
 
jsnww81
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 3:24 am

I for one was very surprised a few years ago when WN added Jackson, Mississippi. I never in a million years expected to see that city on their route map.

With that in mind, I'd say just about any sizeable city on the east coast or in the southeast is fair game. I'd put my money on one of the Redneck Riviera cities on the Gulf of Mexico (either Pensacola, Mobile, or Gulfport/Biloxi) to capture the vacation traffic to those cities.

CLT has the US Airways hub, which seems too entrenched for Southwest. Greensboro seems like a logical choice, although it's fairly close to RDU, and Continental Lite really struggled there back in the mid-90s.

Southwest has also been talking about Wichita, Kansas for years... they've always wanted to add service from Love Field, but the Wright Amendment was always a restriction. Now that the Shelby Amendment has opened up Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a DAL-ICT route, along with of course of MDW-ICT, STL-ICT, PHX-ICT, and the like.

As soon as the Midway airport expansion is complete I expect Southwest to add quite a few cities from there. Right now they're shoehorned into about 12 or 13 gates, but when the construction is complete they'll have 19. Knowing Southwest, they'll be able to stretch those extra 5 or 6 gates quite a long way.
 
mls515
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 4:36 am



If they wanted to fill a hole in the midwest, CID - Cedar Rapids or MLI - Quad Cities are both far from MDW, STL, MCI, and OMA.

I don't know if these areas have the sort of population numbers WN would look for though.
 
AeroGlobeAir7
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RE: FATFlyer

Sat Feb 23, 2002 5:14 am

ICT services won't happen, not anytime in the next decade. You can bet on it. Even though there is a high demand for SWA's services there, Wichita cannot support a high frequency of flights, which is what Southwest's low fares survive on. There isn't a city in the US that Wichita could support 8 daily flights to, or more, and we all know Southwest would fly to more than one city if they came to ICT, the fares are too high, and Southwest wouldn't instantly make the prices rock bottom. I think it will be some time before Wichita gains Southwest's services.
 
zrs70
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 5:23 am

Worcester
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BUFjets
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 6:05 am

I read once that WN doesn't like to enter a market unless it can fill at least 5 daily flights. I can't see Western New York supporting this many WN flights from both ROC and BUF.

I've flown them 5 times this year out of BUF and I've never had a full one. On my last flight, the guy next to me was from Rochester. Obviously, people make the easy 50 minute drive from Rochester to Buffalo to fly Southwest. WN uses this same philosophy by serving BWI and not DCA or Dulles. They know most people won't mind driving a few miles to save $.

So just as DCA-ROC guy is hoping for WN in ROC, I'm hoping against it. I'd be worried that in the end, WN might pull out of both ROC and BUF.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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BUFjets

Sat Feb 23, 2002 10:52 am

BUFJets: I read once that WN doesn't like to enter a market unless it can fill at least 5 daily flights. I can't see Western New York supporting this many WN flights from both ROC and BUF.

Jim: WN only enters a market if they can fill 10 flights, actually. Typically they fly most of those to their nearest hub city--like the 7 BUF-BWI--and then a few other point-to-point fligts. I could see Rochester, Buffalo, *and* Syracuse all supporting at least 10 flights. See below.

BUFjets: I've flown them 5 times this year out of BUF and I've never had a full one. On my last flight, the guy next to me was from Rochester. Obviously, people make the easy 50 minute drive from Rochester to Buffalo to fly Southwest. WN uses this same philosophy by serving BWI and not DCA or Dulles. They know most people won't mind driving a few miles to save $.

Jim: Southwest, like other airlines, makes their decisions based upon the traffic potential of a destination. WN said last year they want to go to Richmond despite going to ORF too. ORF and RIC are closer than BUF and ROC, and are similar in size. And don't forget the nearby stations in ALB and BDL.

All the WN flights I've taken from BUF have been full, though none have been since 9-11. People in Rochester will drive to save money if we have to, but I can assure you we don't like it. We had to do it for most of People Express' existence, then PE discovered that ROC and BUF could both support stations. We always get the short end of the stick on airline "ROC vs. BUF" decisions and do get tired of that. ROC is a healthy medium-size market. We're not BGM or WPT.

US Airways is ailing, and since 9-11 ailing fast. Both BUF and ROC have suffered big cuts by the Cartel carriers, much bigger than warranted by demand. ROC was up to 80 percent of pre 9/11 traffic by New Year's, but our capacity has been cut 27 percent. As George Bush Sr. might say, "you've got a gap." AirTran has figured this out as you probably know. They should do well at both ROC and BUf at the same time.

As US ails, I would not be surprised to see Southwest enter both ROC and SYR, and seize traffic. BUF will do just fine, and don't forget BUF has big ol' Southern Ontario/ Toronto to draw from. As long as WestJet doesn't cross the border, BUF has plenty of catchment area. They don't need to poach pax from ROC. WN could easily control 30-40 percent of air traffic in Upstate NY five years from now. And that with AirTran and JetBlue flourishing alongside, due to the airlines' different markets and strategies.

BUFjets: So just as DCA-ROC guy is hoping for WN in ROC, I'm hoping against it. I'd be worried that in the end, WN might pull out of both ROC and BUF.

Jim: Keep an eye on the big picture...it favors big low-fare expansion in Upstate NY over the next few years. There will be plenty of market demand for everyone.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 11:11 am

WN's pattern is to go for underserved airport near large population centers. Because they can draw off the people who are willing to travel to a smaller airport for the cheap fare. ABE is the best bet for the mid-atlantic. Very close to EWR and NYC and PHL. AS said in other threads PHL is a 3 hour drive from 25% of the US population. ABE is 90 mins from PHL and EWR, and under served. WN would pull from the same population pool as if it where in PHL or EWR and not contend w' US or CO's hubs. ABE is a great little airport. As for the South GSO is probably the best possiblity. WN wont go head to head in a carriers hub. Look at SFO as an example. Im not as familiar with the west so I won't venture a guess
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chepos
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 11:20 am

This sounds stupid, but I would love to see Southwest fly into DAB . Right now we only have continental connection to Tampa and Delta/asa to ATL and Comair on sats to CVG. But we are to close to MCO.
Chepos
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N2111J
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 11:23 am

I agree that Southwest would probably do well in ROC if they were to enter the market, but that's extremely unlikely unless US Air goes under. I believe Southwest requires 2 or 3 dedicated gates at any airport they serve, and right now ROC's are all in use. The terminal was built so that expansion could take place if it were needed, so that's always a possibility, ala Richmond. However I'm not lookng for anything like that to happen anytime soon. I'd love to be wrong though!

Mike
 
jimbobjoe
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 11:35 am

I've always thought that Dayton was an opportunity for them--not going head on with Delta at CVG, but knowing that many would drive up there for service--or is that too close to CMH?
 
BA
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 11:49 am

Don't forget that Colorado Springs is the fastest growing medium-sized city in the US.

Currently its population stands at 500,000 and growing VERY fast.

It was also recently ranked the fittest city in the US (not that it has anything to do about Southwest coming  Smile).

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 1:08 pm

I think WN is preparing for a MAJOR push into Colorado Springs (COS).

I believe there is enough gate capacity available (ever since Western Pacific Airlines folded) that WN could operate 10 or more flights per day out of COS.

I think COS could easily serve the following destinations:

OAK, SJC, LAX, SNA, LAS, PHX, MCI, STL, MDW, and possibly even as far as ISP.

I think if WN does announce service to COS watch both UA and F9 cut prices to DEN in a New York minute.  Smile
 
BA
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 2:49 pm

The East Terminal which was built for Western Pacific is still empty. It only has 4 gates, but there are still a couple remaining gates in the main terminal.

I believe there are 6 to 8 empty gates in COS right now which is plenty enough for Southwest to start out.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 3:09 pm

Last summer, before 9/11, Rochester's congresswoman had a request in for money in the next aviation trust fund bill, to add several gates to ROC for low-fare carriers. I haven't been able to find out anything about it since then and figure it has been shelved. But Monroe County wants WN badly enough, it would be easy to build a prefab two-or-three gate addition off the end of either concourse on short notice, and build a permanent extension later. We have plenty of open ticket-counter and baggage-carousel space.

During the past three years, Monroe County has doubled the width of the side taxiways approaching either concourse, which are now mostly used for de-icing. Either of those spaces could easily accomodate temporary--and later permanent--concourse extensions to accomodate WN on short notice. The remaining space--either one-- could still meet de-icing needs for both Rwy 22 and Rwy 28.

Any Rochesterians here remember the pre-fab tool shed thing they built for People Express in 1985? It was hilarious--this sort of dull, formal brick terminal with a clock tower, with an unpainted wooden tool shed fresh out of Sears tacked on one end. It did the job just fine until CO bought PE and moved indoors to the main building.

Anyone know where Monroe County is going to put AirTran? This time they're coming in as a serious substantial low-fare airline and not just a one-a-day to MCO at which the Cartel tolerates low yields anyway. When the pre-Valujet AirTran was here, they were at Northwest's unused gate, B1 I think it is. The Cartel and JetBlue have all existing gates.

I figure FL competes least with AA and NW of all airlines at ROC, and heaven knows both of those airlines have unused gates.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
5280AGL
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 4:30 pm

My short list:

ABE (which is always that the top of the rumor list)

COS - Why not? COS itself doesn't have the population base to support WN, but there is a giant up the road that can.

GSO - Another 1 million+ market that should be looked into, a great alternative to CLT.

My "not in a million years list" :

DSM - Too small and too close to larger cities like OMA and MCI, who already have WN service. Plus, the lack of gate-space, only 11 and they are all taken. I think even CID and MLI would be better choices than DSM.

ICT - Too small of a population base to draw from. Wichita is basically isolated all by itself in southern KS and the 550,000 MSA won't cut it.


Oh yeah, I think somebody was asking why WN serves JAN...I'll tell ya, TRENT LOTT.  Smile
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 11:07 pm

I think WN right now is working out the economics of flying into COS.

They probably have enough planes to fly to that airport from the airports I mentioned earlier; it's a question of what is the seasonal traffic levels of that airport. Obviously, COS will be a very popular destination during the winter thanks to the many ski resorts nearby, but what is the demand during the summer?

The other question about WN operating into COS is whether they can withstand the very likely possibility of a major fare war from F9 and especially UA.
 
johnboy
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sat Feb 23, 2002 11:30 pm

Re: COS --

I have friends who have moved to the Denver area, and they're always telling me: "It's just as close to get you at Colorado Springs, as it is at Denver International."

From that statement, I would expect many folks to feel that way. I would think the metro area is much too diversified to fall into the "seasonal" category.

Or maybe wishful thinking on my part.
 
BH346
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 12:04 am

AeroGlobeAir7 hit the nail right on the head about Wichita. It wouldn't happen anytime soon. When did Southwest say they were interested in Wichita? Most of the time it's Wichita begging Southwest to fly here. It would be really nice to have Southwest here, though, but I guess until then, I'll have to drive up to Kansas City to fly most of the time.

5280AGL is also right:ICT - Too small of a population base to draw from. Wichita is basically isolated all by itself in southern KS and the 550,000 MSA won't cut it. This is why high frequencies can't be flown here.
Northwest Airlines - Some People Just Know How to Fly
 
BA
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 12:53 am

5280AGL,

COS on its own can easily support WN, that's not the issue at all.

COS is not a small city, nor a big city. It's a medium-sized city and growing very rapidly.

Colorado Springs is a popular destination year-round, in the winter its skiing, in the summer its biking and hiking in the mountains. It's also a good sized business destination. There has been a sudden boom in hotels lately in Colorado Springs near Interquest which is a booming business area in the north. Marriott just started building Residence Inn there.

WN serves some even smaller destinations than COS. If WN has succeeded in smaller markets than COS, then there is no reason why COS wouldn't work.

RayChuang,

Colorado Springs is popular for its hiking and biking trails and generally its outdoor activities. Therefore in the summer COS would be a huge hit also.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
zrs70
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 1:09 am

Worcester
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 1:56 am

The true COS question is whether or not WN thinks people will make the drive down from DEN even after F9 and UA match their fares. IMHO, WN has better markets to serve if they can't draw anything more than the local population.

For the majority of the DEN metro area, it is faster to drive to DEN. Even at my parents house, which is 40 miles south of DEN, it only takes :35 to get to DEN thanks to E-470. Conversely, it takes at least :50 to get to COS. Now 15 minutes isn't that big of a deal, but then you also have to consider traffic, which is never a problem on E-470, but can be an pain when going to COS. (speaking of, if any of you down in the springs know a good traffic-free way to get down there, please share  Smile) The point is, even at my parent's house which is on the southern extreme of the DEN area it is more convienient to go to DEN.

Another factor to consider is DEN is about an hour's drive closer to the major ski resorts. In addition, currently DEN has all the connections to the farther ski resorts. Some might spring up in COS if WN did move in, but for now I give DEN the advantage.

I think WN can succeed in COS, but they will have to be very aggressive to get denverities to make the trip. Not to mention they will also have to pry the DEN business travelers away from their dreams of a FF ticket on that new UA 777 going from DEN-HNL  Smile
 
L-188
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 2:04 am

Woodsboy can you come up with say 30 million of startup capitol..

Lets take AS on!!!

I suggest starting a once a day run to Hawaii as a seed run then expand it to the ANC-SEA run.

After all a couple months after Reno started flying it was their biggest route!
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 2:10 am

Southwest has been at GSO looking around....

And the North Terminal (where I am sure they would be out of) is getting ready to be under major expansion. (well, 5-10 gates)
 
5280AGL
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 3:22 am

I still disagree...If COS was isolated by itself, without the the influence of Denver, they could not support WN service. COS has virtually no business travelers, because well, Colorado Springs is basically a big sprawlzilla suburb. If you compare COS to other current WN cities with less than 1M people (TUL, OMA, LIT, SDF, ABQ) you will see the big difference...They are all big-time business cities, usually with mucho F500/F1000 companies. So, WN can usually safely enter those markets with the frequency (which is the key) that they require. But, since they're within a stone's throw from Denver, it really doesn't matter does it?  Big grin
 
KAUSpilot
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 3:54 am

WN really should serve COS.

I remember when me and my family use to fly wn from SAT to Alberquerque every winter. Then we rented a car and made the 8 hour drive to colorado. That was the closest wn flew to colorado, and we didn't want to get raped by united by paying three times as much.

Trust me, there would be A LOT of people using WN to fly to colorado, at least from texas.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 4:10 am

Regarding COS: Ray, surely you jest about WN facing any danger from a fare war from UA at DEN. WN has whupped United's fanny on on the West Coast, and brought down United Shuttle. WN is no Western Pacific. If WN entered COS, they'd do just fine if fare wars from UA were the major problem.

My question is: What effect does Frontier have on Denver fares? People's willingness to drive to save money is directly tied to the amount of money they can save by the drive. If WN fares at COS will be substantially lower than UA and Frontier fares at DEN, then a COS station would be virtually guaranteed success. Look how well WN does at Manchester/ MHT.

But I'd still look for a major grab for US Airways traffic in the East, in the next 18 months. ROC, SYR, RIC, GSO, DAY, GRR as likely candidates.

Also, don't write off DSM too quickly. All they'd need to do would be add two gates. DSM is in the dead middle of the state. Southwest is no Access Air. They'd offer frequencies and connections, and that would make them the competitor for the Cartel, that Access never was.

Jim
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BA
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 4:57 am

5280AGL,

Regarding businesses, yes COS is a good sized business traveler market.

A survey was conducted recently and a good percentage (about 50%) of the passengers who fly into COS are business travelers.

Don't forget that Intel has a huge presence in COS, and Lockheed Martin has a small Space HQ there aswell.

That's just to name a few.

Another thing is COS does not only serve the people of Colorado Springs, but generally Southern Colorado all the way down in Pueblo. It also serves as a gateway to the Rocky Mountains, probably the 2nd biggest gateway (Denver is #1 of course).

WN serves Amarillo and Lubbock, TX. Both of these cities are about half the size of Colorado Springs and I've heard Southwest is doing great there.

Yes, Colorado Springs is close to Denver, but that doesn't mean Denver will steal all the passengers. If COS has good fares (which WN will have), the people in Colorado Springs will start flying out of COS and will attract some residents in Denver even.

Regards
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mls515
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 5:49 am



I've written off DSM. CID is closer to the population center of the state since Iowa is much more densely populated in the east. DSM is also too close to OMA and MCI.

Less than an hour away from CID:
Cedar Rapids-Linn County 192,000
Iowa City-Johnson County 111,000

Less than an hour and a half away from CID:
Waterloo/Cedar Falls-Black Hawk County 128,000
Quad Cities, IA-Scott County 158,000
Quad Cities, IL-Rock Island County, IL 149,000

There's probably over 1 million people less than an hour and a half away from CID, and the way I drive, even Des Moines and central Iowa is less than two hours away from CID. It's a better fit for WN. That said, I still don't think CID will get WN service for a long long time.

 
SWA TPA
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 7:36 am

Anybody think CHS (Charleston SC) has a prayer? Thats all I ask for of my company  Smile Start flying to CHS and make my whole family happy! CAE (Columbia SC) would even work!
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DCA-ROCguy
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Swa Tpa

Sun Feb 24, 2002 7:44 am

SWA tpa, you sound like someone to ask this question: what is the distribution of population in South Carolina? I always figured that if WN entered South Carolina, they'd pick Columbia because it's the dead center of the state, and from my eyeballing of the Rand McNally road atlas, it probably isn't more than 2-2.5 hours from almost anywhere in the state. That's got to be over three million people, if six congressional seats is any indication. GSP is a slightly bigger air market, and CHS is close in size to Columbia, but I always figured Columbia would be the ideal Southwest terminal for South Carolina due to its location.

Jim
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N766UA
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 7:53 am

Dayton (DAY) sounds like a good idea to me.
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LV
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 8:09 am

Another point to make the case for CAE, they are only a 50 min drive to southern Charlotte. Augusta, GA is about 45 minutes away. Spartanburg/Greenville is about a half an hour up the road, so that actually could hurt or help CAE's chances. I know CAE was on WNs short list when they chose ORF, I think there is a strong case for them to be added.
Plus it would fit the idea of a major east coast expansion
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Old Topic I Know-Next WN Cities?

Sun Feb 24, 2002 9:12 am

SC is a very odd state. There is GSP, CAE and CHS.

Charleston would probably boom for Southwest in the summer with the tourist market. But, the rest of the year, there is just not enough travel out of Charleston, and they wouldn't be able to pull enough from Savannah or Columbia. Columbia is a good 2 hours away and Savannah is an hour or so (I used to live in Charleston).

Columbia wouldn't be too bad. It is 2 hours from Charlotte, 2 hours from GSP, and 2 hours from CHS. Cna be a good draw.

Then we have GSO. This is a majorly underserved airport. The PTAA has told me that Southwest has said on numerous occassion since 1999 that they WILL be serving there, it is just a matter of when. Pluses for GSO is a direct 1.4 million people here, plus pulling from Danville (45 mins), Roanoke (1 1/2 hours), or Charlotte (1 1/2 hours), and the 18 colleges that are located around here. BUT, RDU is only 1 1/2 hours away, which Southwest serves.

The above can be stated about Richmond too. Could serve a good sized area, just like GSO. And could draw alot from surrounding areas, just like GSO. But Richmond is very close to Norfolk, and not too far from RDU, both of which are Southwest cities.

That is may analysis. IMHO, Columbia or GSP would be the best choices. And those would do a great job of putting a dent in US Airways pocket. But GSO could do the same. If they came to GSO, I'd just be willing to bet that people in this area would fly out of GSO instead of RDU.