WNflyer1523 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

This is just my guess as of what F9's service at ISP will be at the end of 2018.

MCO - 2x daily
MIA - 1x daily
PBI - 1x daily
TPA - 1x daily or nonexistent
RSW - 1x daily or going to winter/spring seasonal
ATL - 5x weekly
CLT - 1x daily
DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent
MSY - 3x weekly or going to summer seasonal
MSP - 4x weekly
ORD - 1x daily

I'd love to see this airport work for Frontier too, but so many people here have gotten used to Southwest which doesn't nickel and dime you for everything. When they see that Frontier does the opposite, they may not want to fly it and either ust drive right by to JFK or LGA, or continue using Southwest.

All of the Florida stations ex RSW will probably stick year round at least 1x daily. I wouldn't surprised to see MSY as winter seasonal though, especially around the time of Mardi Gras. Us Long Islanders are party people ya know.

True lol. think they'll start off, see what routes are performing well and what routes aren't performing well, and make adjustments based on that. It's sort of like what they do at TTN, they are constantly adjusting routes/frequencies there. Word on the street though is that MCO service is doing excellent and they will be upgrading to 2x daily A321's.

WNflyer1523 wrote:

One thing which is much needed IMO is the re-location of the passenger terminal to the north side of the airport. It would literally be right next to the LIRR and closer to the LIE.
There's plenty of room there for a new terminal. WN could get 4 gates, and F9 could get 3, AA could get 1, and then leave 3 or 4 gates open for any new carriers, or in the event that AA or F9 would like to expand.
Concourse B at ISP is way overdue for modernization, I can't see F9 having 15+ daily flights out of a small cramped 2 jetway concourse. I love Concourse A though and I'd definitely miss going through it if they were to relocate the terminal to the north side of the airport.

loisencroach wrote:

Are there plans to run a shuttle from LIRR to the terminal? STS is doing this with Sonoma Marin Area Rapid Transit.

WNflyer1523 wrote:

DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.

flymco753 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.

Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't. The second year came around and LF's improved, but not to the point of believing it would come back. It wasn't until 2015 where it began to perform, when F9 started building up PHL.In 2016 the flight must have performed very well because the service came back, daily in 2017. I feel like ISP is in a stronger position than TTN, so I think this route has potential. I'd suspect if this, ATL and MSP perform well, ISP will get a few DL RJ's to these hubs.

evank516 wrote:

As mentioned, seeing DL return to ISP would not surprise me in the least. I think DL will probably watch ATL and DTW for performance very closely.

WNflyer1523 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

As mentioned, seeing DL return to ISP would not surprise me in the least. I think DL will probably watch ATL and DTW for performance very closely.

I also wouldn't be surprised at all if AA got started with ISP-CLT with a CRJ 7/9 if Frontier does well on that route.
This is unlikely, but possibly ISP-MIA on an E175 as well?

evank516 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

As mentioned, seeing DL return to ISP would not surprise me in the least. I think DL will probably watch ATL and DTW for performance very closely.

I also wouldn't be surprised at all if AA got started with ISP-CLT with a CRJ 7/9 if Frontier does well on that route.
This is unlikely, but possibly ISP-MIA on an E175 as well?

I would have vouched for ISP-MIA, but after seeing it come and go rather quickly at HPN I doubt it will happen. I think F9 will be the sole provider of MIA flights from ISP.

WNflyer1523 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

I also wouldn't be surprised at all if AA got started with ISP-CLT with a CRJ 7/9 if Frontier does well on that route.
This is unlikely, but possibly ISP-MIA on an E175 as well?

I would have vouched for ISP-MIA, but after seeing it come and go rather quickly at HPN I doubt it will happen. I think F9 will be the sole provider of MIA flights from ISP.

True. I was surprised on how short that route lasted! Maybe if ORD does successful, AA will consider re-starting ISP-ORD. They stopped it in the late 1990's after WN began ISP-MDW I believe.

WNflyer1523 wrote:

I wonder if AA will ever restart nonstops to DCA. US Airways was doing good on that route with 2x daily CRJ2 until they were forced to end it due to merger regulations. American even re-applied for the route but were denied.

flymco753 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.

Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't. The second year came around and LF's improved, but not to the point of believing it would come back. It wasn't until 2015 where it began to perform, when F9 started building up PHL.In 2016 the flight must have performed very well because the service came back, daily in 2017. I feel like ISP is in a stronger position than TTN, so I think this route has potential. I'd suspect if this, ATL and MSP perform well, ISP will get a few DL RJ's to these hubs.

flymco753 wrote:

DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.

phluser wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.

Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't. The second year came around and LF's improved, but not to the point of believing it would come back. It wasn't until 2015 where it began to perform, when F9 started building up PHL.In 2016 the flight must have performed very well because the service came back, daily in 2017. I feel like ISP is in a stronger position than TTN, so I think this route has potential. I'd suspect if this, ATL and MSP perform well, ISP will get a few DL RJ's to these hubs.

6am departure out of ISP onward to DTW, and 11:09pm arrival back into ISP. Such times make it hard to attract customers over 45 mins away from ISP to use the ISP-DTW. F9 tried MDT-MDW with an early morning flight. It didn't make it easy for someone in Maryland to drive up to MDT on the same day to catch the flight. If they have to stay a night at a hotel to be close to the airport for the early morning flight, it defeats the savings benefit.

As for ATL, I'd think WN would be more inclined to offer ISP-ATL if F9 really stimulates the market, over DL opening up a station at ISP just to offer the route. It's a much more costly proposition for DL. NK has been successful offering ACY-ATL (7 months of the year but daily) but it hasn't triggered DL to re-enter the market. ULCC performance might not be enough to get DL interested.

mariner wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.

Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't.

Odd, because the numbers I saw (for TTN-DTW) were pretty good - not as good as ATL and RDU, but up there.

evank516 wrote:

A schedule like that on ISP-DTW leads me to believe that F9 is banking on the O&D demand originating in ISP since that is basically a day trip schedule. Also, driving to ISP for a 6 AM flight on any day is probably the only time Long Island is devoid of traffic so pretty much any area from the Nassau County/Queens Border all the way out to the Twin Forks is 45 minutes away (speed limits in NY are usually read as Posted+10-15 mph=How fast a NYer drives). Living in Southwestern Nassau County I know I could easily make it to ISP in 45 mins at 4 AM.

If WN tried ISP-ATL, you can be guaranteed that DL would be jumping in on it. I've seen DL reopen previously closed stations when someone jumped into XXX-ATL. SWF is actually a prime example. When FL announced SWF-ATL back in 2006, DL announced SWF-ATL about a month later if not less. I've been saying that if DL returned to ISP with any ATL service, I can almost guarantee you would see some level of mainline service over RJs. Think of the likes of BTV, MHT, ABE, etc. Probably a 1x daily RON 717/A319. DTW not so much, but ATL yes.

evank516 wrote:

When FL announced SWF-ATL back in 2006, DL announced SWF-ATL about a month later if not less.

phluser wrote:

evank516 wrote:

A schedule like that on ISP-DTW leads me to believe that F9 is banking on the O&D demand originating in ISP since that is basically a day trip schedule. Also, driving to ISP for a 6 AM flight on any day is probably the only time Long Island is devoid of traffic so pretty much any area from the Nassau County/Queens Border all the way out to the Twin Forks is 45 minutes away (speed limits in NY are usually read as Posted+10-15 mph=How fast a NYer drives). Living in Southwestern Nassau County I know I could easily make it to ISP in 45 mins at 4 AM.

If WN tried ISP-ATL, you can be guaranteed that DL would be jumping in on it. I've seen DL reopen previously closed stations when someone jumped into XXX-ATL. SWF is actually a prime example. When FL announced SWF-ATL back in 2006, DL announced SWF-ATL about a month later if not less. I've been saying that if DL returned to ISP with any ATL service, I can almost guarantee you would see some level of mainline service over RJs. Think of the likes of BTV, MHT, ABE, etc. Probably a 1x daily RON 717/A319. DTW not so much, but ATL yes.

Ok, but how many leisure pax (this is for F9 at 3x weekly, remember) will fly day trips to Detroit, and want to leave their house at 4am for it? I'm a bit skeptical on that traffic and this schedule's viability. The Tuesday flight will be the weakest of the three days it has service. It's not like low fares to Detroit are unavailable: it has to compete with NK's long established 2x daily LGA-DTW and whatever AA is fare matching on the LGA route with matched fares or Basic Economy.

evank516 wrote:

DTW is also the main airport for the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor which sees a lot of Long Islanders, so there's that also. My point is that it is timed for those originating on Long Island, not DTW.

flymco753 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

DTW is also the main airport for the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor which sees a lot of Long Islanders, so there's that also. My point is that it is timed for those originating on Long Island, not DTW.

I actually attend a University not too far from U of M, so I regularly fly up to that area. I was talking to someone I know from LI and he said the times are perfect for going home on the weekends when Friday he can get homework done and fly out later in the evening. I look forward to visiting my family in the NYC area on this flight too, they won't drive near LGA or JFK.

evank516 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

DTW is also the main airport for the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor which sees a lot of Long Islanders, so there's that also. My point is that it is timed for those originating on Long Island, not DTW.

I actually attend a University not too far from U of M, so I regularly fly up to that area. I was talking to someone I know from LI and he said the times are perfect for going home on the weekends when Friday he can get homework done and fly out later in the evening. I look forward to visiting my family in the NYC area on this flight too, they won't drive near LGA or JFK.

Exactly. Though the flight operates on Sun, Tues, and Thurs. So those who have no classes on Friday can fly out Thursday night. Also it starts around Spring Break (not sure what the calendar says for Mich) but Sunday to Sunday is perfect for Spring Break timing too.

flymco753 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

I actually attend a University not too far from U of M, so I regularly fly up to that area. I was talking to someone I know from LI and he said the times are perfect for going home on the weekends when Friday he can get homework done and fly out later in the evening. I look forward to visiting my family in the NYC area on this flight too, they won't drive near LGA or JFK.

Exactly. Though the flight operates on Sun, Tues, and Thurs. So those who have no classes on Friday can fly out Thursday night. Also it starts around Spring Break (not sure what the calendar says for Mich) but Sunday to Sunday is perfect for Spring Break timing too.

At the university I attend we don't generally have classes on Friday. Spring break this year is the beginning of 2/19-2/25 but that's when basically everyone flees to FL. Either way this flight is going to be pretty interesting and I'd like to see how it pans out.

hz747300 wrote:

I did not realise there was a bunch of NIMBYs near the ISP airport. When you are out there, there is not a lot directly around the airport. It seems like the type of airport that could be a good reliever for the New York big 3, with an island encachement area of its own for people that don't want to travel to delay prone JFK.

If there will be growth, it would be off the back of the success of F9 re-pioneering the airport. I also agree that a Toronto mainly YYZ, service could work because there is pre-clearance in the US.

WNflyer1523 wrote:

My thinking of potential new routes:

More likely:
ISP-CLT (AA)

Less likely but still a possibility:
ISP-ORD (AA and/or UA)
ISP-ATL (WN and/or DL)

I'm thinking American would do good with 2x daily CRJ7 to/from CLT. If they fill those planes, they could probably upgrade one of them to a CRJ9/E175. And if Frontier does good with their ISP-ATL service, there's a good chance that DL or WN would want in on the action. DL could probably start off with a small RJ.

evank516 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

My thinking of potential new routes:

More likely:
ISP-CLT (AA)

Less likely but still a possibility:
ISP-ORD (AA and/or UA)
ISP-ATL (WN and/or DL)

I'm thinking American would do good with 2x daily CRJ7 to/from CLT. If they fill those planes, they could probably upgrade one of them to a CRJ9/E175. And if Frontier does good with their ISP-ATL service, there's a good chance that DL or WN would want in on the action. DL could probably start off with a small RJ.

I see DL becoming more interested than WN in ATL flights if this goes well. Mostly because DL is more defensive of the ATL territory, and WN seems to not be willing to duplicate service at ISP that they have at LGA. DL is much larger and is willing to have some overlap in their services in NYC Area Airports (see HPN). However, the smallest aircraft DL would use would be the CR7 since it's over 750 miles and per their company policy they must fly an aircraft that offers First Class.

RichardWelling wrote:

Could ISP become a major cargo hub? I think it would be possible with the right amount of infstructure investment. Freighter carriers would rejoice over the reduced pricing than what they recieve in JFK.

joelfreak wrote:

There is a HUGE market for those of us who are frequent business travelers and live in Nassau and Suffolk, and who DON'T want to deal with LGA construction (for the next 100 years) and JFK costs (unless you fly UA, which means HPN is the only other option in NY state). UA should fly to ORD/IAD, and DL should fly to MSP/ATL. Heck, even the AA flight to DCA was doing fine, but it was canceled because Doug Parker was pissed that the government made him cancel some flights, and Steve Israel was on that flight all the time, so that would hurt him. There IS a market for business travel at ISP (or even FRG, but one can dream), but F9 and WN aren't going to cut it. Nonstops aren't needed, just the ability to get a mainline code out of the airport would help.

phluser wrote:

Ok, but how many leisure pax (this is for F9 at 3x weekly, remember) will fly day trips to Detroit, and want to leave their house at 4am for it? I'm a bit skeptical on that traffic and this schedule's viability.

mariner wrote:

phluser wrote:

Ok, but how many leisure pax (this is for F9 at 3x weekly, remember) will fly day trips to Detroit, and want to leave their house at 4am for it? I'm a bit skeptical on that traffic and this schedule's viability.

Over the years, several of the summer season flights ex-TTN have left at sparrow fart - 6 am or even before. TTN-DTW is timed for a 6 am departure this coming summer 18.

mariner

phluser wrote:

Fortunately, NK is off PHL-DTW and doesn't serve EWR-DTW, where TTN is a close alternative between both major airports. High fares out of PHL & EWR should keep the TTN-DTW route somewhat healthy out of TTN next year -even with the 6am departure, because there is no other low fare choice around.

With ISP, I suspect Spirit's long serving LGA-DTW 2x daily and AA fare matching might dampen interest to use ISP to reach DTW. But others here believe there is enough demand from the ISP side alone to make it work. I'm not convinced yet, but let's see. I still also disagree that 6am flights for reaching markets like DTW are ideal because of less traffic on the highways at 4:30am. I believe that the ISP-ATL will do much better and is much better timed and is daily. But it's no guarantee that F9 is running that route year-round either- more likely seasonal.

mariner wrote:

Similarly, some people have argued for yonks that ISP has its own market and now we may find out if that's true. I'd love to know to what extent Southwest's traffic was using ISP as a proxy for Manhattan (LGA./JFK) or whether it was genuine "Long Island" traffic.

mariner

mariner wrote:

When Frontier first set up shop at TTN, it was the consensus on a.net that it would have to poach from PHL and, to a lesser extent, EWR. It didn't quite work out like that. The traffic that it took from PHL wasn't "PHL" traffic, it was TTN traffic that had used PHL for lack of service at TTN.

Similarly, some people have argued for yonks that ISP has its own market and now we may find out if that's true. I'd love to know to what extent Southwest's traffic was using ISP as a proxy for Manhattan (LGA./JFK) or whether it was genuine "Long Island" traffic.

mariner

phluser wrote:

I disagree with your assessment of TTN traffic - assuming you mean that it doesn't pull from those closer to PHL and EWR, at all. A very small area (Mercer County) would be left of what is TTN catchment if one only considered that. It's like assuming pax from the DC region won't head up to BWI for low fares just because DCA or IAD is closer..

flymco753 wrote:

How would ISP do in terms of a possible start up carrier? One that services NY traffic up and down the coast, using Saabs hypothetically.

Balloonchaser wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

How would ISP do in terms of a possible start up carrier? One that services NY traffic up and down the coast, using Saabs hypothetically.

I see Air Canada starting service with a B1900 from YYZ-ISP

I can also see Cape Air coming in with ISP-MVY and ISP-BOS flights.

But what I can really see is big airlines operating international out of ISP with 737MAX's, 757's and A321NEO's (Delta, Norwegian, Aer Lingus, RyanAir, Thompson, etc)

Aliqiout wrote:

DL757NYC wrote:

There is no future at this airport. The local residents fought this airport every step most majors had flights there. At that time there were some aircraft that flew out of there were loud. DC-9's MD-80's and some 727's So when they wanted to expand residents fought. The town of Islip had some really corrupt people in there. I know DL pulled out of there back in 08. Now it's just Southwest, Frontier as of late. . There is very little going on there. Typical Long Island people complain about taxes and lack of jobs. Yet every time project are proposed NIMBY's cry traffic, noise. The island has a population of a large state. We have no airports,sports teams or large employers. At least it's quiet

No airports? ISP LGA and JFK are all on Long Island.

I have thought that AS should try LAX, SFO and maybe SAN or SEA as a way to get around lack of slots at JFK.

DL757NYC wrote:

LGA AND JFK are in NYC not in suburban Long Island. Is it on the same island yes but you have to take what I said in context. Without a smart ass reply

Aliqiout wrote:

DL757NYC wrote:

There is no future at this airport. The local residents fought this airport every step most majors had flights there. At that time there were some aircraft that flew out of there were loud. DC-9's MD-80's and some 727's So when they wanted to expand residents fought. The town of Islip had some really corrupt people in there. I know DL pulled out of there back in 08. Now it's just Southwest, Frontier as of late. . There is very little going on there. Typical Long Island people complain about taxes and lack of jobs. Yet every time project are proposed NIMBY's cry traffic, noise. The island has a population of a large state. We have no airports,sports teams or large employers. At least it's quiet

No airports? ISP LGA and JFK are all on Long Island.

I have thought that AS should try LAX, SFO and maybe SAN or SEA as a way to get around lack of slots at JFK.

DL757NYC wrote:

LGA AND JFK are in NYC not in suburban Long Island. Is it on the same island yes but you have to take what I said in context. Without a smart ass reply


Not a smart ass reply. What matters for airports is physical geography, not municipal boundaries. I am not sure what the fact that you have to cross the city limits of NYC to use JFK and LAG has to do with service to a geographic area. Most of the country does not have the benefit of a relatively short drive to such well served airports.

I have never heard someone from Cincinnati complain that they don't have an airport because CRY is across the state line.

If JFK was in New Jersey I am sure ISP would have much more service.

Really I am your side. I think it would be great to have more service to ISP I just don't follow part of your justification.

I am all for more service to smaller airports to reduce driving time, unfortunately people will often drive much further than the longest Long Island-JFK drive, even if their savings are less than the extra cost of driving to the larger airport. The airlines understand this irrationality and schedule and price accordingly.

Aliqiout wrote:

DL757NYC wrote:

There is no future at this airport. The local residents fought this airport every step most majors had flights there. At that time there were some aircraft that flew out of there were loud. DC-9's MD-80's and some 727's So when they wanted to expand residents fought. The town of Islip had some really corrupt people in there. I know DL pulled out of there back in 08. Now it's just Southwest, Frontier as of late. . There is very little going on there. Typical Long Island people complain about taxes and lack of jobs. Yet every time project are proposed NIMBY's cry traffic, noise. The island has a population of a large state. We have no airports,sports teams or large employers. At least it's quiet

No airports? ISP LGA and JFK are all on Long Island.

I have thought that AS should try LAX, SFO and maybe SAN or SEA as a way to get around lack of slots at JFK.