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evank516
Posts: 1465
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:11 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
This is just my guess as of what F9's service at ISP will be at the end of 2018.

MCO - 2x daily
MIA - 1x daily
PBI - 1x daily
TPA - 1x daily or nonexistent
RSW - 1x daily or going to winter/spring seasonal
ATL - 5x weekly
CLT - 1x daily
DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent
MSY - 3x weekly or going to summer seasonal
MSP - 4x weekly
ORD - 1x daily

I'd love to see this airport work for Frontier too, but so many people here have gotten used to Southwest which doesn't nickel and dime you for everything. When they see that Frontier does the opposite, they may not want to fly it and either ust drive right by to JFK or LGA, or continue using Southwest.


All of the Florida stations ex RSW will probably stick year round at least 1x daily. I wouldn't surprised to see MSY as winter seasonal though, especially around the time of Mardi Gras. Us Long Islanders are party people ya know.



True lol. think they'll start off, see what routes are performing well and what routes aren't performing well, and make adjustments based on that. It's sort of like what they do at TTN, they are constantly adjusting routes/frequencies there. Word on the street though is that MCO service is doing excellent and they will be upgrading to 2x daily A321's.


No surprise on MCO. NYC-MCO is highly popular. I wouldn't put it past ISP-MIA to perform just as well too. F9 and WN split the difference between LI-Miami area flights with WN flying to FLL and F9 starting MIA. An extra section to PBI in the winter shouldn't be ruled out either.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:21 pm

One thing which is much needed IMO is the re-location of the passenger terminal to the north side of the airport. It would literally be right next to the LIRR and closer to the LIE.
There's plenty of room there for a new terminal. WN could get 4 gates, and F9 could get 3, AA could get 1, and then leave 3 or 4 gates open for any new carriers, or in the event that AA or F9 would like to expand.
Concourse B at ISP is way overdue for modernization, I can't see F9 having 15+ daily flights out of a small cramped 2 jetway concourse. I love Concourse A though and I'd definitely miss going through it if they were to relocate the terminal to the north side of the airport.
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:25 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
One thing which is much needed IMO is the re-location of the passenger terminal to the north side of the airport. It would literally be right next to the LIRR and closer to the LIE.
There's plenty of room there for a new terminal. WN could get 4 gates, and F9 could get 3, AA could get 1, and then leave 3 or 4 gates open for any new carriers, or in the event that AA or F9 would like to expand.
Concourse B at ISP is way overdue for modernization, I can't see F9 having 15+ daily flights out of a small cramped 2 jetway concourse. I love Concourse A though and I'd definitely miss going through it if they were to relocate the terminal to the north side of the airport.


As mentioned in the past, the Town of Islip is completely corrupt and very sensitive to NIMBYs. While I think it's the better idea, I don't see it happening.
 
loisencroach
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:25 pm

Are there plans to run a shuttle from LIRR to the terminal? STS is doing this with Sonoma Marin Area Rapid Transit.
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:26 pm

loisencroach wrote:
Are there plans to run a shuttle from LIRR to the terminal? STS is doing this with Sonoma Marin Area Rapid Transit.


They already do, and ISP travelers who take the LIRR can actually purchase the shuttle ride at the TVM before boarding the train. It is added on to the LIRR Fare to Ronkonkoma.
 
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flymco753
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:29 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.
Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't. The second year came around and LF's improved, but not to the point of believing it would come back. It wasn't until 2015 where it began to perform, when F9 started building up PHL.In 2016 the flight must have performed very well because the service came back, daily in 2017. I feel like ISP is in a stronger position than TTN, so I think this route has potential. I'd suspect if this, ATL and MSP perform well, ISP will get a few DL RJ's to these hubs.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:49 pm

flymco753 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.
Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't. The second year came around and LF's improved, but not to the point of believing it would come back. It wasn't until 2015 where it began to perform, when F9 started building up PHL.In 2016 the flight must have performed very well because the service came back, daily in 2017. I feel like ISP is in a stronger position than TTN, so I think this route has potential. I'd suspect if this, ATL and MSP perform well, ISP will get a few DL RJ's to these hubs.


As mentioned, seeing DL return to ISP would not surprise me in the least. I think DL will probably watch ATL and DTW for performance very closely.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:58 pm

evank516 wrote:
As mentioned, seeing DL return to ISP would not surprise me in the least. I think DL will probably watch ATL and DTW for performance very closely.


I also wouldn't be surprised at all if AA got started with ISP-CLT with a CRJ 7/9 if Frontier does well on that route. I've been waiting (and hoping) for AA to do that route for at least a year now.
This is unlikely, but possibly ISP-MIA on an E175 as well?
Last edited by WNflyer1523 on Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:58 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
As mentioned, seeing DL return to ISP would not surprise me in the least. I think DL will probably watch ATL and DTW for performance very closely.


I also wouldn't be surprised at all if AA got started with ISP-CLT with a CRJ 7/9 if Frontier does well on that route.
This is unlikely, but possibly ISP-MIA on an E175 as well?


I would have vouched for ISP-MIA, but after seeing it come and go rather quickly at HPN I doubt it will happen. I think F9 will be the sole provider of MIA flights from ISP.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:03 pm

evank516 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
As mentioned, seeing DL return to ISP would not surprise me in the least. I think DL will probably watch ATL and DTW for performance very closely.


I also wouldn't be surprised at all if AA got started with ISP-CLT with a CRJ 7/9 if Frontier does well on that route.
This is unlikely, but possibly ISP-MIA on an E175 as well?


I would have vouched for ISP-MIA, but after seeing it come and go rather quickly at HPN I doubt it will happen. I think F9 will be the sole provider of MIA flights from ISP.


True. I was surprised on how short that route lasted! Maybe if ORD does successful, AA will consider re-starting ISP-ORD. They stopped it in the late 1990's after WN began ISP-MDW I believe.
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:06 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:

I also wouldn't be surprised at all if AA got started with ISP-CLT with a CRJ 7/9 if Frontier does well on that route.
This is unlikely, but possibly ISP-MIA on an E175 as well?


I would have vouched for ISP-MIA, but after seeing it come and go rather quickly at HPN I doubt it will happen. I think F9 will be the sole provider of MIA flights from ISP.


True. I was surprised on how short that route lasted! Maybe if ORD does successful, AA will consider re-starting ISP-ORD. They stopped it in the late 1990's after WN began ISP-MDW I believe.


ISP-ORD stopped in the 2000s actually. Eagle was flying it until 2004 I believe.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:43 pm

I wonder if AA will ever restart nonstops to DCA. US Airways was doing good on that route with 2x daily CRJ2 until they were forced to end it due to merger regulations. American even re-applied for the route but were denied.
 
cheapgreek
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:38 am

WNflyer1523 wrote:
I wonder if AA will ever restart nonstops to DCA. US Airways was doing good on that route with 2x daily CRJ2 until they were forced to end it due to merger regulations. American even re-applied for the route but were denied.


DCA slots are very rare.
 
phluser
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:58 am

flymco753 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.
Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't. The second year came around and LF's improved, but not to the point of believing it would come back. It wasn't until 2015 where it began to perform, when F9 started building up PHL.In 2016 the flight must have performed very well because the service came back, daily in 2017. I feel like ISP is in a stronger position than TTN, so I think this route has potential. I'd suspect if this, ATL and MSP perform well, ISP will get a few DL RJ's to these hubs.


6am departure out of ISP onward to DTW, and 11:09pm arrival back into ISP. Such times make it hard to attract customers over 45 mins away from ISP to use the ISP-DTW. F9 tried MDT-MDW with an early morning flight. It didn't make it easy for someone in Maryland to drive up to MDT on the same day to catch the flight. If they have to stay a night at a hotel to be close to the airport for the early morning flight, it defeats the savings benefit.

As for ATL, I'd think WN would be more inclined to offer ISP-ATL if F9 really stimulates the market, over DL opening up a station at ISP just to offer the route. It's a much more costly proposition for DL. NK has been successful offering ACY-ATL (7 months of the year but daily) but it hasn't triggered DL to re-enter the market. ULCC performance might not be enough to get DL interested.
 
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mariner
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:00 am

flymco753 wrote:
DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.
Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't.

Odd, because the numbers I saw (for TTN-DTW) were pretty good - not as good as ATL and RDU, but up there.

The puzzle to me is that Delta gave Frontier free rein at TTN and seems to continue to do so, so I wonder how important ISP is to Delta and I can't think too much. But maybe it'll be the straw that broke Delta's back - LOL.

Meanwhile, ISP seems to be doing pretty for Frontier for these early days, with both ESP-MCO and ISP-MIA at double daily, although in the case of MIA that changes at the end of season, the end of April.

How this will affect Southwest is beyond my ken. I doubt we'll have another rerun of Southwest at DEN, but anything's possible.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:59 pm

phluser wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.
Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't. The second year came around and LF's improved, but not to the point of believing it would come back. It wasn't until 2015 where it began to perform, when F9 started building up PHL.In 2016 the flight must have performed very well because the service came back, daily in 2017. I feel like ISP is in a stronger position than TTN, so I think this route has potential. I'd suspect if this, ATL and MSP perform well, ISP will get a few DL RJ's to these hubs.


6am departure out of ISP onward to DTW, and 11:09pm arrival back into ISP. Such times make it hard to attract customers over 45 mins away from ISP to use the ISP-DTW. F9 tried MDT-MDW with an early morning flight. It didn't make it easy for someone in Maryland to drive up to MDT on the same day to catch the flight. If they have to stay a night at a hotel to be close to the airport for the early morning flight, it defeats the savings benefit.

As for ATL, I'd think WN would be more inclined to offer ISP-ATL if F9 really stimulates the market, over DL opening up a station at ISP just to offer the route. It's a much more costly proposition for DL. NK has been successful offering ACY-ATL (7 months of the year but daily) but it hasn't triggered DL to re-enter the market. ULCC performance might not be enough to get DL interested.


A schedule like that on ISP-DTW leads me to believe that F9 is banking on the O&D demand originating in ISP since that is basically a day trip schedule. Also, driving to ISP for a 6 AM flight on any day is probably the only time Long Island is devoid of traffic so pretty much any area from the Nassau County/Queens Border all the way out to the Twin Forks is 45 minutes away (speed limits in NY are usually read as Posted+10-15 mph=How fast a NYer drives). Living in Southwestern Nassau County I know I could easily make it to ISP in 45 mins at 4 AM.

If WN tried ISP-ATL, you can be guaranteed that DL would be jumping in on it. I've seen DL reopen previously closed stations when someone jumped into XXX-ATL. SWF is actually a prime example. When FL announced SWF-ATL back in 2006, DL announced SWF-ATL about a month later if not less. I've been saying that if DL returned to ISP with any ATL service, I can almost guarantee you would see some level of mainline service over RJs. Think of the likes of BTV, MHT, ABE, etc. Probably a 1x daily RON 717/A319. DTW not so much, but ATL yes.
 
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flymco753
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:08 pm

mariner wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
DTW - 3x weekly or nonexistent.
Actually I have some interesting analysis on this route. When I first started studying routes a few years ago, I thought DTW-TTN was a miserable idea and it wouldn't last. The first season, IIRC the LF's were terrible and I predicted that TTN wouldn't last because IAD and ILG sure didn't.

Odd, because the numbers I saw (for TTN-DTW) were pretty good - not as good as ATL and RDU, but up there.
The thing that's crazy is DTW-TTN had a virtually absent market and now PDEW is well over 15,000 per year (I forgot exactly what number it is now). ISP at the moment has about 4,000 one way from ISP, which is stronger than the DTW-ISP leg, so I think that's why they timed it that way. Either it'll stimulate good traffic or it'll bust.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
phluser
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:16 pm

evank516 wrote:
A schedule like that on ISP-DTW leads me to believe that F9 is banking on the O&D demand originating in ISP since that is basically a day trip schedule. Also, driving to ISP for a 6 AM flight on any day is probably the only time Long Island is devoid of traffic so pretty much any area from the Nassau County/Queens Border all the way out to the Twin Forks is 45 minutes away (speed limits in NY are usually read as Posted+10-15 mph=How fast a NYer drives). Living in Southwestern Nassau County I know I could easily make it to ISP in 45 mins at 4 AM.

If WN tried ISP-ATL, you can be guaranteed that DL would be jumping in on it. I've seen DL reopen previously closed stations when someone jumped into XXX-ATL. SWF is actually a prime example. When FL announced SWF-ATL back in 2006, DL announced SWF-ATL about a month later if not less. I've been saying that if DL returned to ISP with any ATL service, I can almost guarantee you would see some level of mainline service over RJs. Think of the likes of BTV, MHT, ABE, etc. Probably a 1x daily RON 717/A319. DTW not so much, but ATL yes.


Ok, but how many leisure pax (this is for F9 at 3x weekly, remember) will fly day trips to Detroit, and want to leave their house at 4am for it? I'm a bit skeptical on that traffic and this schedule's viability. The Tuesday flight will be the weakest of the three days it has service. It's not like low fares to Detroit are unavailable: it has to compete with NK's long established 2x daily LGA-DTW and whatever AA is fare matching on the LGA route with matched fares or Basic Economy.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:19 pm

evank516 wrote:
When FL announced SWF-ATL back in 2006, DL announced SWF-ATL about a month later if not less.
`
What is FL? AirTran?
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:21 pm

phluser wrote:
evank516 wrote:
A schedule like that on ISP-DTW leads me to believe that F9 is banking on the O&D demand originating in ISP since that is basically a day trip schedule. Also, driving to ISP for a 6 AM flight on any day is probably the only time Long Island is devoid of traffic so pretty much any area from the Nassau County/Queens Border all the way out to the Twin Forks is 45 minutes away (speed limits in NY are usually read as Posted+10-15 mph=How fast a NYer drives). Living in Southwestern Nassau County I know I could easily make it to ISP in 45 mins at 4 AM.

If WN tried ISP-ATL, you can be guaranteed that DL would be jumping in on it. I've seen DL reopen previously closed stations when someone jumped into XXX-ATL. SWF is actually a prime example. When FL announced SWF-ATL back in 2006, DL announced SWF-ATL about a month later if not less. I've been saying that if DL returned to ISP with any ATL service, I can almost guarantee you would see some level of mainline service over RJs. Think of the likes of BTV, MHT, ABE, etc. Probably a 1x daily RON 717/A319. DTW not so much, but ATL yes.


Ok, but how many leisure pax (this is for F9 at 3x weekly, remember) will fly day trips to Detroit, and want to leave their house at 4am for it? I'm a bit skeptical on that traffic and this schedule's viability. The Tuesday flight will be the weakest of the three days it has service. It's not like low fares to Detroit are unavailable: it has to compete with NK's long established 2x daily LGA-DTW and whatever AA is fare matching on the LGA route with matched fares or Basic Economy.


I'm not aware of the full schedule yet. And frankly, half the people that might commute to the city are up at 4 AM anyway. I'm not sure where you live, or if you've ever lived in the NYC area, but there are plenty of individuals well out east on Long Island that commute into the city. Ronkonkoma is the origin/terminator on the Ronkonkoma Branch, and those living in that vicinity are up early. Also, when it comes to leisure pax they will do whatever they need to do for a cheap flight. DTW is also the main airport for the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor which sees a lot of Long Islanders, so there's that also. My point is that it is timed for those originating on Long Island, not DTW. The flight arrives and departs at prime times of the day where there is virtually no traffic on the parkways (which is rare).

@WNFlyer, yes FL is AirTran.
 
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flymco753
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:36 pm

evank516 wrote:
DTW is also the main airport for the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor which sees a lot of Long Islanders, so there's that also. My point is that it is timed for those originating on Long Island, not DTW.
I actually attend a University not too far from U of M, so I regularly fly up to that area. I was talking to someone I know from LI and he said the times are perfect for going home on the weekends when Friday he can get homework done and fly out later in the evening. I look forward to visiting my family in the NYC area on this flight too if I'm flying out of DTW, they won't drive near LGA or JFK.

If this says anything, I flew MCO-ISP one-way on F9 last week and it was full, this flight is going to do well.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:39 pm

flymco753 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
DTW is also the main airport for the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor which sees a lot of Long Islanders, so there's that also. My point is that it is timed for those originating on Long Island, not DTW.
I actually attend a University not too far from U of M, so I regularly fly up to that area. I was talking to someone I know from LI and he said the times are perfect for going home on the weekends when Friday he can get homework done and fly out later in the evening. I look forward to visiting my family in the NYC area on this flight too, they won't drive near LGA or JFK.


Exactly. Though the flight operates on Sun, Tues, and Thurs. So those who have no classes on Friday can fly out Thursday night. Also it starts around Spring Break (not sure what the calendar says for Mich) but Sunday to Sunday is perfect for Spring Break timing too.
 
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flymco753
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:43 pm

evank516 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
DTW is also the main airport for the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor which sees a lot of Long Islanders, so there's that also. My point is that it is timed for those originating on Long Island, not DTW.
I actually attend a University not too far from U of M, so I regularly fly up to that area. I was talking to someone I know from LI and he said the times are perfect for going home on the weekends when Friday he can get homework done and fly out later in the evening. I look forward to visiting my family in the NYC area on this flight too, they won't drive near LGA or JFK.


Exactly. Though the flight operates on Sun, Tues, and Thurs. So those who have no classes on Friday can fly out Thursday night. Also it starts around Spring Break (not sure what the calendar says for Mich) but Sunday to Sunday is perfect for Spring Break timing too.
At the university I attend we don't generally have classes on Friday. Spring break this year is the beginning of 2/19-2/25 but that's when basically everyone flees to FL. Either way this flight is going to be pretty interesting and I'd like to see how it pans out.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:45 pm

flymco753 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I actually attend a University not too far from U of M, so I regularly fly up to that area. I was talking to someone I know from LI and he said the times are perfect for going home on the weekends when Friday he can get homework done and fly out later in the evening. I look forward to visiting my family in the NYC area on this flight too, they won't drive near LGA or JFK.


Exactly. Though the flight operates on Sun, Tues, and Thurs. So those who have no classes on Friday can fly out Thursday night. Also it starts around Spring Break (not sure what the calendar says for Mich) but Sunday to Sunday is perfect for Spring Break timing too.
At the university I attend we don't generally have classes on Friday. Spring break this year is the beginning of 2/19-2/25 but that's when basically everyone flees to FL. Either way this flight is going to be pretty interesting and I'd like to see how it pans out.


GEEZ! That can't even be considered spring! Hope the semester ends in April at that rate. But yes, very common to not have Friday classes so the Thursday night departure works great.
 
hz747300
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:43 pm

I did not realise there was a bunch of NIMBYs near the ISP airport. When you are out there, there is not a lot directly around the airport. It seems like the type of airport that could be a good reliever for the New York big 3, with an island encachement area of its own for people that don't want to travel to delay prone JFK.

If there will be growth, it would be off the back of the success of F9 re-pioneering the airport. I also agree that a Toronto mainly YYZ, service could work because there is pre-clearance in the US.
Keep on truckin'...
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:25 pm

My thinking of potential new routes:

More likely:
ISP-CLT (AA)

Less likely but still a possibility:
ISP-ORD (AA and/or UA)
ISP-ATL (WN and/or DL)

I'm thinking American would do good with 2x daily CRJ7 to/from CLT. If they fill those planes, they could probably upgrade one of them to a CRJ9/E175. And if Frontier does good with their ISP-ATL service, there's a good chance that DL or WN would want in on the action. DL could probably start off with a small RJ.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:18 pm

hz747300 wrote:
I did not realise there was a bunch of NIMBYs near the ISP airport. When you are out there, there is not a lot directly around the airport. It seems like the type of airport that could be a good reliever for the New York big 3, with an island encachement area of its own for people that don't want to travel to delay prone JFK.

If there will be growth, it would be off the back of the success of F9 re-pioneering the airport. I also agree that a Toronto mainly YYZ, service could work because there is pre-clearance in the US.


Yes definitely. I hate it when people choose to move near an active airport then complain about the noise! But, I could see if you are originally not under any flight paths but then they get changed and you're now under one, then you can complain.
 
evank516
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:42 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
My thinking of potential new routes:

More likely:
ISP-CLT (AA)

Less likely but still a possibility:
ISP-ORD (AA and/or UA)
ISP-ATL (WN and/or DL)

I'm thinking American would do good with 2x daily CRJ7 to/from CLT. If they fill those planes, they could probably upgrade one of them to a CRJ9/E175. And if Frontier does good with their ISP-ATL service, there's a good chance that DL or WN would want in on the action. DL could probably start off with a small RJ.


I see DL becoming more interested than WN in ATL flights if this goes well. Mostly because DL is more defensive of the ATL territory, and WN seems to not be willing to duplicate service at ISP that they have at LGA. DL is much larger and is willing to have some overlap in their services in NYC Area Airports (see HPN). However, the smallest aircraft DL would use would be the CR7 since it's over 750 miles and per their company policy they must fly an aircraft that offers First Class.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:09 pm

evank516 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
My thinking of potential new routes:

More likely:
ISP-CLT (AA)

Less likely but still a possibility:
ISP-ORD (AA and/or UA)
ISP-ATL (WN and/or DL)

I'm thinking American would do good with 2x daily CRJ7 to/from CLT. If they fill those planes, they could probably upgrade one of them to a CRJ9/E175. And if Frontier does good with their ISP-ATL service, there's a good chance that DL or WN would want in on the action. DL could probably start off with a small RJ.


I see DL becoming more interested than WN in ATL flights if this goes well. Mostly because DL is more defensive of the ATL territory, and WN seems to not be willing to duplicate service at ISP that they have at LGA. DL is much larger and is willing to have some overlap in their services in NYC Area Airports (see HPN). However, the smallest aircraft DL would use would be the CR7 since it's over 750 miles and per their company policy they must fly an aircraft that offers First Class.


PREDICTION: Norwegian starts ISP service by the end of 2019. Norwegian would be a perfect fit here.
 
WNflyer1523
Posts: 251
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:28 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:37 pm

Does anyone know why F9 has announced schedules for ISP-ATL,DTW,MSP, and ORD but not CLT yet?
 
hz747300
Posts: 2255
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

Re: The Future of ISP

Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:58 pm

Three recent ISP threads. I feel like there is definitely interest in flying from the airport above the current service level. Personally, I think it would be good, if doable (regulatory & NIMBYs), to add service to major hubs westward and key east coast business centers plus Floridian leisure markets.

There are several key businesses between the airport and the NYC metro area, and having visited family on Eastern Long Island for many years, I know many people would be inclined to take service from ISP, rather than driving to LGA or JFK.

AA to ORD, DFW, and / or CLT (maybe PHX).
DL to ATL, DTW, CDG.
UA to ORD, EWR, IAH.
Keep on truckin'...
 
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mariner
Posts: 19473
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Re: The Future of ISP

Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:27 pm

From November 5, ISP-MCO-CUN becomes bookable as a through flight. It's a 2 am arrival at CUN, but I doubt that will bother too many Frontier pax.

The intriguing thing - to me - is what happens if it does well? Do they apply for ISP-CUN as a non-stop or do they route a second frequency through MIA?

And as I don't know central Long Island all that well, is there any market there for PUJ?

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
RichardWelling
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:45 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:10 am

Could ISP become a major cargo hub? I think it would be possible with the right amount of infstructure investment. Freighter carriers would rejoice over the reduced pricing than what they recieve in JFK.
 
WNflyer1523
Posts: 251
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:28 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:22 pm

RichardWelling wrote:
Could ISP become a major cargo hub? I think it would be possible with the right amount of infstructure investment. Freighter carriers would rejoice over the reduced pricing than what they recieve in JFK.

Probably not a major cargo hub, but I could see cargo service increasing there, especially if the main runway gets lengthened.
 
RichardWelling
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:45 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Sun Sep 24, 2017 3:05 pm

If done right, I could see ISP as what STN is to LHR in terms of pure freighter carriers operating into a nearby major city airport thats only 1 hour away from one another. But right now there isnt any infrastructure to support this.
 
joelfreak
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:13 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:20 pm

There is a HUGE market for those of us who are frequent business travelers and live in Nassau and Suffolk, and who DON'T want to deal with LGA construction (for the next 100 years) and JFK costs (unless you fly UA, which means HPN is the only other option in NY state). UA should fly to ORD/IAD, and DL should fly to MSP/ATL. Heck, even the AA flight to DCA was doing fine, but it was canceled because Doug Parker was pissed that the government made him cancel some flights, and Steve Israel was on that flight all the time, so that would hurt him. There IS a market for business travel at ISP (or even FRG, but one can dream), but F9 and WN aren't going to cut it. Nonstops aren't needed, just the ability to get a mainline code out of the airport would help.
 
WNflyer1523
Posts: 251
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:28 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:58 pm

joelfreak wrote:
There is a HUGE market for those of us who are frequent business travelers and live in Nassau and Suffolk, and who DON'T want to deal with LGA construction (for the next 100 years) and JFK costs (unless you fly UA, which means HPN is the only other option in NY state). UA should fly to ORD/IAD, and DL should fly to MSP/ATL. Heck, even the AA flight to DCA was doing fine, but it was canceled because Doug Parker was pissed that the government made him cancel some flights, and Steve Israel was on that flight all the time, so that would hurt him. There IS a market for business travel at ISP (or even FRG, but one can dream), but F9 and WN aren't going to cut it. Nonstops aren't needed, just the ability to get a mainline code out of the airport would help.

Totally agree!
 
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flymco753
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Re: The Future of ISP

Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:26 pm

How would ISP do in terms of a possible start up carrier? One that services NY traffic up and down the coast, using Saabs hypothetically.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
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mariner
Posts: 19473
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Re: The Future of ISP

Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:08 pm

phluser wrote:
Ok, but how many leisure pax (this is for F9 at 3x weekly, remember) will fly day trips to Detroit, and want to leave their house at 4am for it? I'm a bit skeptical on that traffic and this schedule's viability.


Over the years, several of the summer season flights ex-TTN have left at sparrow fart - 6 am or even before. TTN-DTW is timed for a 6 am departure this coming summer 18.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
phluser
Posts: 606
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: The Future of ISP

Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:35 am

mariner wrote:
phluser wrote:
Ok, but how many leisure pax (this is for F9 at 3x weekly, remember) will fly day trips to Detroit, and want to leave their house at 4am for it? I'm a bit skeptical on that traffic and this schedule's viability.


Over the years, several of the summer season flights ex-TTN have left at sparrow fart - 6 am or even before. TTN-DTW is timed for a 6 am departure this coming summer 18.

mariner


Fortunately, NK is off PHL-DTW and doesn't serve EWR-DTW, where TTN is a close alternative between both major airports. High fares out of PHL & EWR should keep the TTN-DTW route somewhat healthy out of TTN next year -even with the 6am departure, because there is no other low fare choice around.

With ISP, I suspect Spirit's long serving LGA-DTW 2x daily and AA fare matching might dampen interest to use ISP to reach DTW. But others here believe there is enough demand from the ISP side alone to make it work. I'm not convinced yet, but let's see. I still also disagree that 6am flights for reaching markets like DTW are ideal because of less traffic on the highways at 4:30am. I believe that the ISP-ATL will do much better and is much better timed and is daily. But it's no guarantee that F9 is running that route year-round either- more likely seasonal.
 
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mariner
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Re: The Future of ISP

Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:52 am

phluser wrote:
Fortunately, NK is off PHL-DTW and doesn't serve EWR-DTW, where TTN is a close alternative between both major airports. High fares out of PHL & EWR should keep the TTN-DTW route somewhat healthy out of TTN next year -even with the 6am departure, because there is no other low fare choice around.

With ISP, I suspect Spirit's long serving LGA-DTW 2x daily and AA fare matching might dampen interest to use ISP to reach DTW. But others here believe there is enough demand from the ISP side alone to make it work. I'm not convinced yet, but let's see. I still also disagree that 6am flights for reaching markets like DTW are ideal because of less traffic on the highways at 4:30am. I believe that the ISP-ATL will do much better and is much better timed and is daily. But it's no guarantee that F9 is running that route year-round either- more likely seasonal.


When Frontier first set up shop at TTN, it was the consensus on a.net that it would have to poach from PHL and, to a lesser extent, EWR. It didn't quite work out like that. The traffic that it took from PHL wasn't "PHL" traffic, it was TTN traffic that had used PHL for lack of service at TTN.

Similarly, some people have argued for yonks that ISP has its own market and now we may find out if that's true. I'd love to know to what extent Southwest's traffic was using ISP as a proxy for Manhattan (LGA./JFK) or whether it was genuine "Long Island" traffic.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
WNflyer1523
Posts: 251
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:28 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:59 pm

mariner wrote:
Similarly, some people have argued for yonks that ISP has its own market and now we may find out if that's true. I'd love to know to what extent Southwest's traffic was using ISP as a proxy for Manhattan (LGA./JFK) or whether it was genuine "Long Island" traffic.

mariner


Probably most of it was going to/from Long Island, and still is. Although back in the day, when WN did ISP-PVD there was probably some connecting traffic, people coming from the south connecting thru ISP to get to PVD, and vice versa. I don't think anyone west of the Nassau/Queens border would even consider ISP.
 
phluser
Posts: 606
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: The Future of ISP

Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:57 pm

mariner wrote:

When Frontier first set up shop at TTN, it was the consensus on a.net that it would have to poach from PHL and, to a lesser extent, EWR. It didn't quite work out like that. The traffic that it took from PHL wasn't "PHL" traffic, it was TTN traffic that had used PHL for lack of service at TTN.

Similarly, some people have argued for yonks that ISP has its own market and now we may find out if that's true. I'd love to know to what extent Southwest's traffic was using ISP as a proxy for Manhattan (LGA./JFK) or whether it was genuine "Long Island" traffic.

mariner


I disagree with your assessment of TTN traffic - assuming you mean that it doesn't pull from those closer to PHL and EWR, at all. A very small area (Mercer County) would be left of what is TTN catchment if one only considered that. It's like assuming pax from the DC region won't head up to BWI for low fares just because DCA or IAD is closer.

I agree with your second statement that we will have to find out if ISP is it's own market. The test will be those non sun (or non top 10 market routes) like DTW, CLT and MSP at whatever time of day schedule F9 offers it.
 
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mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:23 pm

phluser wrote:
I disagree with your assessment of TTN traffic - assuming you mean that it doesn't pull from those closer to PHL and EWR, at all. A very small area (Mercer County) would be left of what is TTN catchment if one only considered that. It's like assuming pax from the DC region won't head up to BWI for low fares just because DCA or IAD is closer..


I shrug.

I was lucky (privileged) enough to some internal Frontier statistics when TTN had been in operation for about 18 months and the majority of pax were from the Trenton area. Yes, there were some from the eastern PHL area, but a minority, and a few from the north, but East Windsor was close to the limit of it with a few outliers from East Brunswick.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Balloonchaser
Topic Author
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:29 pm

Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:31 am

flymco753 wrote:
How would ISP do in terms of a possible start up carrier? One that services NY traffic up and down the coast, using Saabs hypothetically.


I see Air Canada starting service with a B1900 from YYZ-ISP

I can also see Cape Air coming in with ISP-MVY and ISP-BOS flights.

But what I can really see is big airlines operating international out of ISP with 737MAX's, 757's and A321NEO's (Delta, Norwegian, Aer Lingus, RyanAir, Thompson, etc)
 
evank516
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:01 pm

Balloonchaser wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
How would ISP do in terms of a possible start up carrier? One that services NY traffic up and down the coast, using Saabs hypothetically.


I see Air Canada starting service with a B1900 from YYZ-ISP

I can also see Cape Air coming in with ISP-MVY and ISP-BOS flights.

But what I can really see is big airlines operating international out of ISP with 737MAX's, 757's and A321NEO's (Delta, Norwegian, Aer Lingus, RyanAir, Thompson, etc)


We definitely won't be seeing any US Carriers offering transatlantic service without flights to their respective hubs.
 
DL757NYC
Posts: 164
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:07 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:20 pm

LGA AND JFK are in NYC not in suburban Long Island. Is it on the same island yes but you have to take what I said in context. Without a smart ass reply




Aliqiout wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
There is no future at this airport. The local residents fought this airport every step most majors had flights there. At that time there were some aircraft that flew out of there were loud. DC-9's MD-80's and some 727's So when they wanted to expand residents fought. The town of Islip had some really corrupt people in there. I know DL pulled out of there back in 08. Now it's just Southwest, Frontier as of late. . There is very little going on there. Typical Long Island people complain about taxes and lack of jobs. Yet every time project are proposed NIMBY's cry traffic, noise. The island has a population of a large state. We have no airports,sports teams or large employers. At least it's quiet

No airports? ISP LGA and JFK are all on Long Island.

I have thought that AS should try LAX, SFO and maybe SAN or SEA as a way to get around lack of slots at JFK.
 
evank516
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:42 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
LGA AND JFK are in NYC not in suburban Long Island. Is it on the same island yes but you have to take what I said in context. Without a smart ass reply




Aliqiout wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
There is no future at this airport. The local residents fought this airport every step most majors had flights there. At that time there were some aircraft that flew out of there were loud. DC-9's MD-80's and some 727's So when they wanted to expand residents fought. The town of Islip had some really corrupt people in there. I know DL pulled out of there back in 08. Now it's just Southwest, Frontier as of late. . There is very little going on there. Typical Long Island people complain about taxes and lack of jobs. Yet every time project are proposed NIMBY's cry traffic, noise. The island has a population of a large state. We have no airports,sports teams or large employers. At least it's quiet

No airports? ISP LGA and JFK are all on Long Island.

I have thought that AS should try LAX, SFO and maybe SAN or SEA as a way to get around lack of slots at JFK.


:checkmark:

JFK and LGA are in the New York City Borough of Queens, geographically located on Long Island, but politically they are in NYC Proper and serve the NYC Metro Area.

I just don't understand NIMBYs on Long Island. Half of the island is located within the JFK/LGA Airspace and the flight patterns for JFK are all over Nassau and even Western Suffolk County. We have airplane noise all the time. ISP will never get to the level of JFK or LGA, but some token presences from the legacies would do it some good. The change in noise probably wouldn't even be THAT noticeable unless someone decides to send a Mad Dog in there.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: The Future of ISP

Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:28 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
LGA AND JFK are in NYC not in suburban Long Island. Is it on the same island yes but you have to take what I said in context. Without a smart ass reply


Not a smart ass reply. What matters for airports is physical geography, not municipal boundaries. I am not sure what the fact that you have to cross the city limits of NYC to use JFK and LAG has to do with service to a geographic area. Most of the country does not have the benefit of a relatively short drive to such well served airports.

I have never heard someone from Cincinnati complain that they don't have an airport because CRY is across the state line.

If JFK was in New Jersey I am sure ISP would have much more service.

Really I am your side. I think it would be great to have more service to ISP I just don't follow part of your justification.

I am all for more service to smaller airports to reduce driving time, unfortunately people will often drive much further than the longest Long Island-JFK drive, even if their savings are less than the extra cost of driving to the larger airport. The airlines understand this irrationality and schedule and price accordingly.


Aliqiout wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
There is no future at this airport. The local residents fought this airport every step most majors had flights there. At that time there were some aircraft that flew out of there were loud. DC-9's MD-80's and some 727's So when they wanted to expand residents fought. The town of Islip had some really corrupt people in there. I know DL pulled out of there back in 08. Now it's just Southwest, Frontier as of late. . There is very little going on there. Typical Long Island people complain about taxes and lack of jobs. Yet every time project are proposed NIMBY's cry traffic, noise. The island has a population of a large state. We have no airports,sports teams or large employers. At least it's quiet

No airports? ISP LGA and JFK are all on Long Island.

I have thought that AS should try LAX, SFO and maybe SAN or SEA as a way to get around lack of slots at JFK.
 
ADXMatt
Posts: 518
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:07 pm

Re: The Future of ISP

Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:42 am

ISP before deregulation had an AA B727 ISP-ORD 1x daily.
USAir Multiple daily flights to DCA/PIT/PHL/ALB/BOS

several years after deregulation almost if not every legacy carrier (or express partner) flew to ISP.
Piedmont to BWI and CLT, AA was huge with multiple daily service to ORD/RDU/BOS (RDU was a hub back then for AA) I don't think that they did DFW.

AA had a huge FF base and was able to attract business travelers as well.

I am NOT bashing WN as I like them. When WN came in and quickly ramped up to 40+ flights a day all the majors all pulled back or left entirely. WN even built the modern terminal you see today and WN was thriving. The big boys left because the ticket prices went too low and killed yield. They couldn't keep the business travelers when the service was so reduced.

With that being said... AA still has a large FF base and even more so after merging with US. I'm surprised that AA didn't increase service to ISP. Especially 2x daily ISP-ORD.with mainline and ISP-BOS ISP-DCA with Eagle. (DCA slots might be a reason)

UA doesn't have a large enough base on Long Island and even back in the day UA couldn't attract the passengers that AA could.

With Delta's build up in NY over the years I could see 2x daily to ATL.

ISP-BOS will work if there is frequency and on a jet. It will need an airline that the business travelers want. i.e. AA or DL. The props cancel too often in the winter and have uncomfortable rides when there is weather.
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