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Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:47 pm

HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:55 am

Question 1: Is is possible that Island Air will ever start flying Jets interisland? I know they just converted to Q400s (which are great to fly on, better than the ATRs or the CRJs of Go! airlines). Does anyone think Island Air has a chance of building itself up to be able to compete with Hawaiian the same way Aloha did back in the day?

Question 2: What will HA replace the 717s with? I know this is a long ways away, but I just wonder what could possibly replace the 717 adequately, I see it as the same dilemma that airlines have in trying to replace the 757, there simply is no perfect sucsessor
 
hnl-jack
Posts: 259
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2001 10:34 pm

Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:29 am

When the time comes for HA to replace the 717's, it will likely be the engines that determine the selection. As has been discussed here many times, the quick turns required for interisland service don't provide the necessary cool down time for most engines. More than likely their selection will come from e-jets under development.

As for Island Air, I doubt that they will attempt to go head to head with HA with jets. It would probably be a blood bath. Island Air appears to be carving a niche out of the portion of the market where fare is foremost, where frequency and frequent flyer benefits aren't as important. The question has been and continues to be, is that market is big enough to sustain growth and a significant ROI?
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:46 am

I'm guessing E190/E195 or C Series, really depends on if the airframe/engines can take the stress of the quick turns and constant pressurization.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
 
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seabosdca
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:09 am

It's going to be a while.

The 717s that have spent their entire careers with Hawaiian have been there for 15-16 years, and are in the range of 55k-60k cycles. It's safe to assume Hawaiian will take them all the way to the 110k cycle LOV, which will take more than a decade from now. And they have some lower-cycle aircraft that will be able to fly even longer. Further, between now and then other 717s will probably appear on the market, and I'd expect Hawaiian to pay a premium for them, outbidding Delta and its CS100 fleet.

The only thing that I think could retire these 717s prematurely is if the BR715 becomes very expensive to overhaul.

It's hard to know today what the best option for replacement would be. In theory the Pratt GTF should do well in the short-cycle environment, which would favor the CS100 or E190E2, but the engine has yet to prove itself.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:37 am

It takes furbofans to compete with turbofans, ergo WP can't directly compete against HA with turboprops. Will WP replace its new Qs with turbofans? Not unless (i) Elix (the lessor) offers a swap, and (ii) there's a powerplant that can do what the BR715 can do. Prognosis: revisit the question in 2027.

Question 2: Ditto, when HA's 712s hit 100K cycles in about 2027.
 
77H
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:34 am

WPvsMW wrote:
It takes furbofans to compete with turbofans, ergo WP can't directly compete against HA with turboprops. Will WP replace its new Qs with turbofans? Not unless (i) Elix (the lessor) offers a swap, and (ii) there's a powerplant that can do what the BR715 can do. Prognosis: revisit the question in 2027.

Question 2: Ditto, when HA's 712s hit 100K cycles in about 2027.


As far as needing a turbofan to compete against turbofan I'm not sure it's that simple. Competing on what metric?

Economics seems to favor the turboprop in many instances involving short stage lengths of which encompasses all intra-Hawaii flying.

Acquisition cost tends to favor the turboprop, simply looking at list prices between the Q and the 717.

Range of use favors the Q, at least in Hawaii. What I mean by this is that WP could, if they so choose operate the Q into airports HA could not operate the 717. LNY immediately comes to mind as well as MKK (assuming the Q isn't taking off at MTOW which would be highly unlikely).

Passenger preference and comfort tends to favor the turbofan. Although preference is highly subjective. I find flying on WP's and MW's turboprops an exotic experience in skies where the turbofan dominates.

Capacity, both passenger and cargo/bags undoubtedly favors the turbofan.

At first glance, one might posit that flight time would favor the turbofan but looking at flight times between say, HNL-OGG between an HA 717 and a WP Q are only minutes different.
I've had the pleasure of flying HNL-OGG on a HA 763. One would think that a more powerful aircraft would cut down on flight time but in my experience it was actually the opposite. In the 763 it seemed like we descended and slowed far earlier than flights on the 717. While this could have been for ATC reasons, I theorized that it had more to do with the fact that the 763 is a much larger plane to slow down than the 717.

WP seems to be on the path to success under new ownership and new aircraft. I think the Q was the right plane for them to compete more effectively against HA's turbofans. Best of luck to them. Anything to keep inter island fares a little more reasonable.

77H
 
32andBelow
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:46 am

High speed ferry can take them all out.
 
DoctorVenkman
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:59 am

32andBelow wrote:
High speed ferry can take them all out.


Are you joking? It's around 100 miles from Honolulu to both Maui and Kauai. Best case scenario that's about 2 hours port to port on a high speed ferry, probably closer to 2.5 hours in reality. Meanwhile the flights take about 40 minutes.

And that's the best-case scenario for the ferry. Any other combination of the main four islands would take even longer for a ferry.
 
Utah744
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:02 am

Not an engine expert, but couldn't the engines on a replacement aircraft just be motored each for 30 seconds after all of the pax deplane? Obviously that would double the starter engagements and HA could live with the much earlier replacements or have the engine manufacturer sell them a beefed up starter paying the cost up front.
You are never too old to learn something stupid
 
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jaybird
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:10 am

Island Air needs to figure out what they are and start making some money.
For Hawaiian it isn't just an issue of engines - they also need a plane that can carry all the passenger's bags and cargo.
We had SuperFerry .. huge fiasco .. the state is still paying off on it even though the ships are long gone.
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 569
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:32 am

77H wrote:
WP seems to be on the path to success under new ownership and new aircraft. I think the Q was the right plane for them to compete more effectively against HA's turbofans. Best of luck to them. Anything to keep inter island fares a little more reasonable.

77H


HNL/ITO is $50 to $100 higher than HNL/KOA. Watch that fare delta go away when WP starts HNL/ITO service later this year. Plus, the Qs have a QUIET cabin, the the 712 in the aft cabin is so loud conversation is difficult... and in the aft lav ... like you're inside the HP stage.

And my metric for turbofan vs. turboprop: pax preference, even with WP's fares lower.

Personal preference: I fly WP as much as I can, corp acct fares are significantly lower than HA, but lower freq and sold out flights on WP often put me on HA.


32andBelow wrote:
High speed ferry can take them all out.


Politically impossible. Google: Hawaiian high speed ferry
 
JHwk
Posts: 459
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Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:37 am

DoctorVenkman wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
High speed ferry can take them all out.


Are you joking? It's around 100 miles from Honolulu to both Maui and Kauai. Best case scenario that's about 2 hours port to port on a high speed ferry, probably closer to 2.5 hours in reality. Meanwhile the flights take about 40 minutes.

And that's the best-case scenario for the ferry. Any other combination of the main four islands would take even longer for a ferry.

Add in ease of surfboard transport, whale watching, and starting/ending closer to your destination and you are closer to a wash.

Of course you really should also subtract out close encounters with whales, environmentalist fear of close encounters with whales, and ...wasn't that tried before?
 
77H
Posts: 599
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:27 pm

Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:39 am

JHwk wrote:
DoctorVenkman wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
High speed ferry can take them all out.


Are you joking? It's around 100 miles from Honolulu to both Maui and Kauai. Best case scenario that's about 2 hours port to port on a high speed ferry, probably closer to 2.5 hours in reality. Meanwhile the flights take about 40 minutes.

And that's the best-case scenario for the ferry. Any other combination of the main four islands would take even longer for a ferry.

Add in ease of surfboard transport, whale watching, and starting/ending closer to your destination and you are closer to a wash.

Of course you really should also subtract out close encounters with whales, environmentalist fear of close encounters with whales, and ...wasn't that tried before?


All other aspects aside, the only positive I saw for the ferry over flying was the ability to take ones own car to another island. This allows for travelers to cut out the rental car, Speedi Shuttle, etc and get right to business or vacation.

The rental car queue alone during the late morning mainland arrival bank at OGG would strongly make me consider the ferry an option if it were still around. Alas, I just do my best to plan flights that arrive before or after that bank.

77H
 
BoeingGuy
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Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:00 am

The 717 is not capable of operating into LNY and MKK? HA flew DC-9s to both and Aloha flew 737-200s to MKK.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 1830
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: HA and Island Air future interisland aircraft

Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:29 am

77H wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
It takes furbofans to compete with turbofans, ergo WP can't directly compete against HA with turboprops. Will WP replace its new Qs with turbofans? Not unless (i) Elix (the lessor) offers a swap, and (ii) there's a powerplant that can do what the BR715 can do. Prognosis: revisit the question in 2027.

Question 2: Ditto, when HA's 712s hit 100K cycles in about 2027.


As far as needing a turbofan to compete against turbofan I'm not sure it's that simple. Competing on what metric?

Economics seems to favor the turboprop in many instances involving short stage lengths of which encompasses all intra-Hawaii flying.

Acquisition cost tends to favor the turboprop, simply looking at list prices between the Q and the 717.

Range of use favors the Q, at least in Hawaii. What I mean by this is that WP could, if they so choose operate the Q into airports HA could not operate the 717. LNY immediately comes to mind as well as MKK (assuming the Q isn't taking off at MTOW which would be highly unlikely).

Passenger preference and comfort tends to favor the turbofan. Although preference is highly subjective. I find flying on WP's and MW's turboprops an exotic experience in skies where the turbofan dominates.

Capacity, both passenger and cargo/bags undoubtedly favors the turbofan.

At first glance, one might posit that flight time would favor the turbofan but looking at flight times between say, HNL-OGG between an HA 717 and a WP Q are only minutes different.
I've had the pleasure of flying HNL-OGG on a HA 763. One would think that a more powerful aircraft would cut down on flight time but in my experience it was actually the opposite. In the 763 it seemed like we descended and slowed far earlier than flights on the 717. While this could have been for ATC reasons, I theorized that it had more to do with the fact that the 763 is a much larger plane to slow down than the 717.

WP seems to be on the path to success under new ownership and new aircraft. I think the Q was the right plane for them to compete more effectively against HA's turbofans. Best of luck to them. Anything to keep inter island fares a little more reasonable.

77H


The 717 can land & T-O at both LNY & MKK. There is just not the capacity demand at them to justify the use 48 seats per flight to an island of 7000 (MKK) works better than a 717 with 128 seats. The 717 is between the DC-9-30 & DC-9 40 in size. Hawaiian operated much larger DC-9-50's into LNY & MKK in the past.

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