bigjku
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:44 pm

tlecam wrote:
Interesting article about Delta's interest in the 797.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-797-jet

They want to be a launch customer.


You basically have all of the US3 associated with the aircraft. I am told that American is deeply involved with the process and has been for quite a while. I have also been told Southwest is a likely customer in significant numbers at some point.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:48 pm

Southwest, American, United and Delta as launch customers, that would be unique demonstration of superiority when such big names sign up for one plane.
 
bigjku
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:55 pm

seahawk wrote:
Southwest, American, United and Delta as launch customers, that would be unique demonstration of superiority when such big names sign up for one plane.


For the record I don’t necessarily expect SW to be a launch customer. What I was told is they have looked at the program and have input because eventually they will move in this direction. American on the other hand I do expect to be a launch customer. United I know nothing beyond what they have stated publicly which makes it sound as if they are highly interested.
 
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william
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
tlecam wrote:
Interesting article about Delta's interest in the 797.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-797-jet

They want to be a launch customer.

This will make a few a.net members heads explode.

But DL hates Boeing!

But DL is an A330neo customer!

But DL is an A321neo customer!

Article leaves no doubts:

“You’re going to see us participate in Boeing’s middle-of-the-market campaign,” Bastian said. “I hope that we’re going to be a launch customer on that program as well.”


:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:07 pm

seahawk wrote:
Southwest, American, United and Delta as launch customers, that would be unique demonstration of superiority when such big names sign up for one plane.

If all those carriers sign up Boeing could launch this program with just domestic carriers.
 
ORDfan
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:33 pm

I'd love if it if this ends up being 2x2x2 in J... here's hoping.
 
parapente
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:56 pm

I guess it will be a battle as to whether the MOM market is mainly at the bottom end or the top end - unless of course it's both.
If the 797 is launched this year I really don't give the 338 much of a chance in the marketplace.
But if a 250 seat (simple stretch)322 'plus' is launched I am not sure that the 7310 has much of a future either.
Interesting times.
 
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william
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:04 pm

parapente wrote:
I guess it will be a battle as to whether the MOM market is mainly at the bottom end or the top end - unless of course it's both.
If the 797 is launched this year I really don't give the 338 much of a chance in the marketplace.
But if a 250 seat (simple stretch)322 'plus' is launched I am not sure that the 7310 has much of a future either.
Interesting times.


I am reading airlines that are excited about what the 797 may be, have not heard any talks or rumors from Airbus about an A322. Stands to reason Airbus would talk to the same airlines.
 
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william
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:07 pm

seahawk wrote:
Southwest, American, United and Delta as launch customers, that would be unique demonstration of superiority when such big names sign up for one plane.


Makes sense that SWA would be involved since this aircraft will have a lot in common with the 737 replacement (think 7J7 with no T tail and wing mounted engines.)
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:04 pm

Revelation wrote:
Article leaves no doubts:

“You’re going to see us participate in Boeing’s middle-of-the-market campaign,” Bastian said. “I hope that we’re going to be a launch customer on that program as well.”


This is how you negotiate through the press on the pricing of your next tranche of A321neo. :wink2:
 
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william
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:23 am

seabosdca wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Article leaves no doubts:

“You’re going to see us participate in Boeing’s middle-of-the-market campaign,” Bastian said. “I hope that we’re going to be a launch customer on that program as well.”


This is how you negotiate through the press on the pricing of your next tranche of A321neo. :wink2:


Good one,of course with the competency that P&W has shown so far let’s get the present order of A321 in service first.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:31 am

seahawk wrote:
Southwest, American, United and Delta as launch customers, that would be unique demonstration of superiority when such big names sign up for one plane.


Nobody knows exactly what the "797" is, yet it's already superior to the competition it doesn't have? :rotfl:

It's so superior that, apparently, Boeing is struggling to close the business case for it. :scratchchin:

william wrote:
Makes sense that SWA would be involved since this aircraft will have a lot in common with the 737 replacement


Right, we don't know what the unlaunched 797 is, but it's already common with the unlaunched NSA? Seriously? :scratchchin:
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william
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:43 am

scbriml wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Southwest, American, United and Delta as launch customers, that would be unique demonstration of superiority when such big names sign up for one plane.


Nobody knows exactly what the "797" is, yet it's already superior to the competition it doesn't have? :rotfl:

It's so superior that, apparently, Boeing is struggling to close the business case for it. :scratchchin:

william wrote:
Makes sense that SWA would be involved since this aircraft will have a lot in common with the 737 replacement


Right, we don't know what the unlaunched 797 is, but it's already common with the unlaunched NSA? Seriously? :scratchchin:


No,you don’t know what it is but the airlines that were shown the specs do and they like what they see.

And what has been made public by Boeing is yes the 797 and the next NB will have a lot of commonality.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:52 am

scbriml wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Southwest, American, United and Delta as launch customers, that would be unique demonstration of superiority when such big names sign up for one plane.


Nobody knows exactly what the "797" is, yet it's already superior to the competition it doesn't have? :rotfl:

It's so superior that, apparently, Boeing is struggling to close the business case for it. :scratchchin:

:scratchchin:


As I said "would" - if Boeing does launch the 797 with those airlines as launch customers it would surely make strong business case and would be a strong vote of confidence by the airlines.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:42 am

797 first flight today....

Image


If it were a cast iron case (as it would be if all US3 were as interested in putting down money as they are in generating soundbites) the 797 would have been launched before the A321LR ate a substantial part of the market.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:01 am

It could very well be they are all interested, but the versions they are interested in and the requirements they have might still be hugely different.
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:12 am

Amiga500 wrote:
797 first flight today....

Image


If it were a cast iron case (as it would be if all US3 were as interested in putting down money as they are in generating soundbites) the 797 would have been launched before the A321LR ate a substantial part of the market.


I am not sure the A321LR has all that much to do with the ultimate business case of the airplane(s) that will come out of this program. IMHO that represents a misunderstanding of what Boeing is ultimately aiming at here.
 
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PHBVF
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:34 am

parapente wrote:
I guess it will be a battle as to whether the MOM market is mainly at the bottom end or the top end - unless of course it's both.
If the 797 is launched this year I really don't give the 338 much of a chance in the marketplace.
But if a 250 seat (simple stretch)322 'plus' is launched I am not sure that the 7310 has much of a future either.
Interesting times.

I read (from LNC or Jon Ostrower, not sure which one of the two) that Boeing is now looking at a 50000 pound thrust engine, which would suggest a heavier, and thus upper end aircraft.
I think this is risky. the 787 started as a 767 replacement but also "crept" up and is now too large for this role.

Will this now also happen to the 797 (compared to the 757, in stead of the 767)?
Licensed 737/777/787 driver
 
TranscendZac
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:18 pm

PHBVF wrote:
parapente wrote:
I guess it will be a battle as to whether the MOM market is mainly at the bottom end or the top end - unless of course it's both.
If the 797 is launched this year I really don't give the 338 much of a chance in the marketplace.
But if a 250 seat (simple stretch)322 'plus' is launched I am not sure that the 7310 has much of a future either.
Interesting times.

I read (from LNC or Jon Ostrower, not sure which one of the two) that Boeing is now looking at a 50000 pound thrust engine, which would suggest a heavier, and thus upper end aircraft.
I think this is risky. the 787 started as a 767 replacement but also "crept" up and is now too large for this role.

Will this now also happen to the 797 (compared to the 757, in stead of the 767)?

I don’t think so. The 787 was pushed up in capability (i.e. weight) by the airlines because Boeing had no viable A330 competitor, so the 787 was pushed up to replace 767 and A330. In the case of the 797, the market is asking for a smaller aircraft with an entirely different role. At 50k thrust, that is still significantly less than what is required to power any variant of the 787.
Zac
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Boeing were very wise to launch the 787 with the shortest lightest version.They even launched with a 'standard' seating of X8 which is what their launch customer went with (yes I know they offered x9 as well).
As such this aircraft was very much positioned as a 767 replacement.It garnered a lot of sales on this basis.Today it has become the de facto 338 replacement.
So it has done its (sales) job holding the fort on the 767.Its superior range/economics especially at x9 takes it into a different fight and one it will do well in (imho).
So it's ok for the 797 to eat it's (788) original lunch.Clearly this a/c must be able to do the 757's job (752 and 753 sizes)- and better.That of course includes containerised cargo at fully optimal ranges (5knm +in still air).
It doesn't have to do 'regional/transcon' as the 737-10 is being designed- as we write- to do exactly this job up to 230pax.Whether it does it well enough is a separate issue.One assumes Boeing believes it can.Hell they may even have a 4knm 200(2 class) seater up Their sleeve using the new MLG on the - 9.Its not impossible.
Hence optimising the 797 clearly above those aircraft and more importantly the A321NEO/322.
Price is going to be an issue - it always is for every aircraft.But pricing is only really bad when it is a commodity race (320-738).this is a twin aisle medium range aircraft there really is no comparison with the 321/322.This should give them enough financial wiggle room imho.

The fact that so many major airlines are queuing up to launch does suggest that pricing is ok.
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:22 pm

bigjku wrote:
I am not sure the A321LR has all that much to do with the ultimate business case of the airplane(s) that will come out of this program.


That is a startling admission.


bigjku wrote:
IMHO that represents a misunderstanding of what Boeing is ultimately aiming at here.


So what are Boeing ultimately aiming at?

Seems they cannot decide - or rather - cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile.
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:31 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Seems they cannot decide - or rather - cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile.

Seems you have decided Boeing cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile, and are not patient enough to wait to see what Boeing decides.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:07 pm

PHBVF wrote:
I read (from LNC or Jon Ostrower, not sure which one of the two) that Boeing is now looking at a 50000 pound thrust engine, which would suggest a heavier, and thus upper end aircraft.
I think this is risky. the 787 started as a 767 replacement but also "crept" up and is now too large for this role.

Will this now also happen to the 797 (compared to the 757, in stead of the 767)?

Not risky at all. Everything I've heard has it positioned halfway between the A321LR and 787-8.

I've been saying that it will be a tight 8 abreast aircraft for the last 12 months. The long range 5000nm version similar to the A310 in length and the short range 4000nm version similar to the A300 in length.

The A321LR at 97T and the 788 at 227T makes half way 162T.
That's 65% heavier than the A321 which has 33,000lb of thrust. 65% extra thrust comes to 54,000lb. So 50,000lb of thrust is spot on for an aircraft around the 150-160T maximum takeoff weight.

The stretched 797 version will nearly be as long as the 788 but with 8 abreast instead of 9 abreast. That is approx 85% the number of seats but at only 70% the weight it will be very efficient on shorter routes. The 787-8 will most likely be discontinued in the future so this 797 will still be much smaller than the 789.

The 797 simple shrink will have the same maximum takeoff weight so it will fly further. Like the A330-200/300 the shorter length will probably get a centre fuselage fuel tank for extra fuel. This model allows new long and thin routes to be opened up. In low density 3 class cabins I could see it flying 5500nm. This opens new routes in the following locations.

Japan to west coast US.
West coast US to western Europe.
East coast US to east coast Europe.
Most of Europe to Most of Asia.

The 787 was a great success because it could fly long haul routes while being smaller with lower trips costs compared to say a 747 or 777. Airlines loved the extra frequency or the ability to open new thin routes as it was easier to fill the smaller aircraft.

The 797 will do the same thing but on medium haul. It will be able to fly medium haul routes while being much smaller and lower trip costs than the A330's. So airlines will also love the extra frequency and the ability to open new thin medium haul routes. Busy airport pairs like Melbourne to Sydney could also upgauge narrowbody flights to the short ranged stretched 797.
Last edited by RJMAZ on Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bigjku
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:18 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I am not sure the A321LR has all that much to do with the ultimate business case of the airplane(s) that will come out of this program.


That is a startling admission.


bigjku wrote:
IMHO that represents a misunderstanding of what Boeing is ultimately aiming at here.


So what are Boeing ultimately aiming at?

Seems they cannot decide - or rather - cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile.


I think they are quite content to let speculation run for a bit. What I have been led to understand is that overall program goals are much more ambitious than simply wedging an airliner into a vacant market space.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:25 pm

"It should be noted that in his presentation to PNAA, Tinseth shows the NMA replacing the A330/340, the 767 and 777-200ER/300. Missing are the 757, larger 737s and the 787-8—a selective set of examples, noted a few delegates afterward."

This was a comment from yesterday.

To me this gives more credence to the possibility the NMA is 8 wide, as it would be hard to cover 777 capacities with 7W - unless Boeing is assuming average passenger counts go down on the top end and frequency goes up (like it has been for sometime).

However from a business standpoint this seems idiotic as it would probably make it quite difficult to use an 8W fuselage on the NSA program - which effectively means Boeing intends to have 4 Different architectures in production at once (6 if you include 767 and 747 Freighters) - unless something changes.

That really doesn't seem that efficient at all - unless Boeing's long range plan (in ten years or so) once 747 and 767 winds down is to replace the 777x (after 500-600 have been produced) with ER Longer Winged and stretched versions of the 787. Which might make a lot of sense from a weight and manufacturing cost standpoint. The A350 will most likely give 777X fits in future sales campaigns - I don't see 77X getting much beyond 500-600 sales (currently just over 300) anyways - which wouldn't be too bad compared to about 839 777W's. That would be Build rate of about 50 per year for 10 years.

Eventually this would leave Boeing with NSA, MOM and 787 in two wing sizes and possibly they develop a freighter version of the 777X and build 10-20 per year once passenger sales wind down.
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:51 pm

morrisond wrote:
"It should be noted that in his presentation to PNAA, Tinseth shows the NMA replacing the A330/340, the 767 and 777-200ER/300. Missing are the 757, larger 737s and the 787-8—a selective set of examples, noted a few delegates afterward."

This was a comment from yesterday.

To me this gives more credence to the possibility the NMA is 8 wide, as it would be hard to cover 777 capacities with 7W - unless Boeing is assuming average passenger counts go down on the top end and frequency goes up (like it has been for sometime).

However from a business standpoint this seems idiotic as it would probably make it quite difficult to use an 8W fuselage on the NSA program - which effectively means Boeing intends to have 4 Different architectures in production at once (6 if you include 767 and 747 Freighters) - unless something changes.

That really doesn't seem that efficient at all - unless Boeing's long range plan (in ten years or so) once 747 and 767 winds down is to replace the 777x (after 500-600 have been produced) with ER Longer Winged and stretched versions of the 787. Which might make a lot of sense from a weight and manufacturing cost standpoint. The A350 will most likely give 777X fits in future sales campaigns - I don't see 77X getting much beyond 500-600 sales (currently just over 300) anyways - which wouldn't be too bad compared to about 839 777W's. That would be Build rate of about 50 per year for 10 years.

Eventually this would leave Boeing with NSA, MOM and 787 in two wing sizes and possibly they develop a freighter version of the 777X and build 10-20 per year once passenger sales wind down.


The excerpt from the article above is a bit incomplete. Tinseth talked, somewhat vaguely, about taking some of the narrowbody market with this plane. Someone else also points out that the vertical integration Boeing is doing makes sense if they are looking at two airplanes in a relatively short timeframe.

As for where it fits in the product lineup I continue to believe the goal is focused on taking a significant portion of orders that would otherwise be for multiple narrowbodies.
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Seems they cannot decide - or rather - cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile.

Seems you have decided Boeing cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile, and are not patient enough to wait to see what Boeing decides.


Boeing haven't found a space in the market despite studying the thing since 2014. That is now going on for 4 years yet all we see are soundbites and bluster. How long do they expect the market to wait?
[2015-2017; Airbus have sold over 1000 A321 neos.]


https://leehamnews.com/2014/11/02/boein ... -airplane/
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:58 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
I've been saying that it will be a tight 8 abreast aircraft for the last 12 months. The long range 5000nm version similar to the A310 in length and the short range 4000nm version similar to the A300 in length.


It has to be that (to have a chance).

Simply 7AB won't work and they've recently dumped $20B+ on a 8/9AB airframe.

It has to be a 7/8AB.

Whether that is good enough to sell in sufficient numbers is another question.
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:16 pm

I think an 8 abreast WB has 8 abreast WB costs. probably without the cargo capability. It would compete against a more capable same price A330 NEO.

The NMA has to be as light as possible to be competitive also on the bulk of its flights: 1000-2000 NM.

Found this doc on 767 MRO, it shows average flight of 767s is a bit more than 2 hours so ~ 1000-1200 NM.

https://www.elal.com/en/ELALTech/Documents/Press_Releases/767.pdf

:arrow: The 797 NMA better be lean and mean here too, without all kinds of excess weight created by e.g. niche 8 abreast 5000NM flight capability.
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:18 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Seems they cannot decide - or rather - cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile.

Seems you have decided Boeing cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile, and are not patient enough to wait to see what Boeing decides.


Boeing haven't found a space in the market despite studying the thing since 2014. That is now going on for 4 years yet all we see are soundbites and bluster. How long do they expect the market to wait?
[2015-2017; Airbus have sold over 1000 A321 neos.]

https://leehamnews.com/2014/11/02/boein ... -airplane/

Four years? A380 took from 1988 till 2000 to decide what to do and still got it wrong ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380 ).

At this point I don't see the harm in waiting till the plan converges or not, for as you point out A321 has already filled A320 family production slots for years to come, and getting the product right ( in particular its cost of production ) is very important.

It would not surprise me one bit for there to be no decision this year.
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bigjku
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:20 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Seems they cannot decide - or rather - cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile.

Seems you have decided Boeing cannot find a space in the market where they can generate sufficient return on investment to make it worthwhile, and are not patient enough to wait to see what Boeing decides.


Boeing haven't found a space in the market despite studying the thing since 2014. That is now going on for 4 years yet all we see are soundbites and bluster. How long do they expect the market to wait?
[2015-2017; Airbus have sold over 1000 A321 neos.]


https://leehamnews.com/2014/11/02/boein ... -airplane/


Boeing has always been pretty cautious about committing to something and making sure there is a suitable market for it. Their big miss would be the 767-400 I guess. Otherwise everything has sold plenty well. There is really no reason to rush rather than to get things right. Particularly if you as a company see this as a long-term play moving things forward in various ways.

Airbus on the other hand has missed badly on some market projections. The A380 is well documented. I am not sure the revisions to the A350-1000 were the right direction to go based on its sales results so far. I think the A330neo is a problem program and they know it. From where I sit it highlights the limitations of just putting new engines on things.

Yes the A320neo and 737MAX have sold very well. There are also no other practical alternatives for them right now. There is no natural law that says that must always be the case. If you asked me to trust one sources market projections on something like this I would generally lean towards Boeing. They seem to have been more right than others much of the time.
 
 
parapente
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:46 pm

I think just about everybody feels they are going X8 ab.Not to be perverse but I believe it will be x7ab Ovoid.Not only will it work for this MOM (x7 didn't harm the 767 either) but -as above - they talk of 2 project eventually.
It could be they are looking to fundamentally change the regional NB market for ever ( second project).It has already grown to a rough min of 200 seats one class and is still growing.This is fine for X7 and perfect at 250 pax.Slow disembarkation will be a thing of the past and comfort improved all round.
Cannot speak of propulsion as by then it may be Hybrid.
It's only a thought,but it may be the way they are thinking - time will tell.
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:16 pm

william wrote:
https://leehamnews.com/2018/02/13/nma-demand-skeptics-arent-thinking-outside-box-boeing-exec-says/

Thank you from some relief from the never ending "I'm right about the size and the shape and you're wrong!" dialog.

Of course be prepared for a lot of derision about what our friend Randy has to say in that article.

“You take a little bit from the top of the single aisles, you take a little bit from the bottom of the wide-body market, you stimulate some growth and, of course, you have a little bit of a numbers game because you’re replacing some aircraft,” Tinseth told LNC on the sidelines of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA) today.

“What’s different about this airplane is this isn’t a conventional airplane,” he says. “This is an airplane that’s all about changing the fundamental way the networks of our customers. Those who seeing a low forecast aren’t thinking out of the box.”

Every drug like rush needs a pusher, no?
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holzmann
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:21 pm

The market, and Boeing, have to wait until there is a suitable engine for the job, offering the mix of thrust and efficiency.

As for MOM not covering the 737/757: makes perfect sense to me. The 737 is a cash cow with over 4,000 in backlog. Meanwhile, Boeing will cede the 757 market to the A321/LR...until Y1 or an NSA is able to offer serious competitive advantage to the A320/A321 with an EIS by 2030 or 2035.

My pondering about the Boeing lineup:

Boeing Embraer will eventually take care of the small NB market up through the 737-7 vs. Airbus Bombardier C-Series and A319
737-8/10 will "do the job" against the A320neo until 2035 or so when the NSA is launched, which will probably be a substantial NB improvement upon the A320neo/A321neo/LR and 757-200.
(The 737-7/9 will eventually be dropped. Boeing will also more or less cede the market to the A321neo/LR for the time being.)
797 vs. A322 and replacing the 757-300/767/787-8, possibly giving the A330-800neo a few headaches. I think the 797, as it has been discussed, has great potential.
(The 767F/KC will continue until all tankers have been delivered to the USAF. If Amazon orders a ton, perhaps Boeing can convert them to a 797F? Would make sense to close this line.)
787-9/10 vs. A330-900neo/A350-900 (These planes will continue to duke it out over the long term with the A330-900neo having the most headaches. The A359 is and will be a stellar success.)
(The 787-8 will eventually be dropped.)
B??? vs. A350-1000 (I really expect this Airbus to be the next star for them, likely being the WB equivalent of the A321LR. Perhaps Boeing will examine a 787-10ER or 787 MAX 12 to counter.)
777-8/9/10 vs. A??? (Really is a question for me how successful this frame will be as airlines phase out their B77W/B744/B748/A388. At a minimum it will give Airbus a CASM fit and provide pricing pressure on a possible A380neo. Maybe that is enough. Will also prove to be a successful Freighter model.)
B748 vs. A??? (Will continue as a Freighter only until Boeing can convince the market to convert to the B777-8F/9F at which time the Queen will cease to exist.)
B??? vs. A380neo (I don't think Boeing believes there is a large enough VLA market for two suppliers. I think the chances for a A388neo are 20/80, for/against.)
Halo Projects: Let's hope A or B or NASA or SpaceX start to push the envelope further in terms speed and environmental sustainability of travel.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:52 pm

keesje wrote:
I get flash backs here, 2011

Boeing contemplating the NSA, talking to key customers, fully understanding the market, making sure they get it right .

This was a few weeks before the 737 MAX launch : https://youtu.be/rJzRsodeYes?t=36s

I see the chances growing Airbus will pre-empt Boeing here, like we saw 7 years ago.

Image

Whammy, I hope Boeing learns from the past.


What would Airbus do to make Boeing not go through with this aircraft? Seems they aren’t doing much since airlines are really only talking about the NMA.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:52 pm

morrisond wrote:
It should be noted that in his presentation to PNAA, Tinseth shows the NMA replacing the A330/340, the 767 and 777-200ER/300.

This projects the 797 to become larger and smaller than the 787 at the same time. You can guess how credible that sounds to me...

Also replacing these planes was exactly the duty book of the 787 (in fact the list was shorter back then). How many times does Boeing want to replace the A330 again?
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:52 pm

I get flash backs here, 2011

Boeing contemplating the NSA, talking to key customers, fully understanding the market, making sure they get it right .

This was a few weeks before the forced (fully undefined) 737 MAX launch : https://youtu.be/rJzRsodeYes?t=36s

I see the chances growing Airbus will pre-empt Boeing here, like we saw 7 years ago.

Image

Whammy, I hope Boeing learns from the past.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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william
Posts: 2481
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:06 pm

keesje wrote:
I get flash backs here, 2011

Boeing contemplating the NSA, talking to key customers, fully understanding the market, making sure they get it right .

This was a few weeks before the forced (fully undefined) 737 MAX launch : https://youtu.be/rJzRsodeYes?t=36s

I see the chances growing Airbus will pre-empt Boeing here, like we saw 7 years ago.

Image

Whammy, I hope Boeing learns from the past.


And you know what, Boeing would be fine with that. Like all the arm chair engineers her on Anet state, just need to a CF wing and new engines. IMO, its not the plane that has Airbus concerned, its the more automated assembly process.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1232
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:08 pm

keesje wrote:
I get flash backs here, 2011

Boeing contemplating the NSA, talking to key customers, fully understanding the market, making sure they get it right .

This was a few weeks before the forced (fully undefined) 737 MAX launch : https://youtu.be/rJzRsodeYes?t=36s

I see the chances growing Airbus will pre-empt Boeing here, like we saw 7 years ago.

Image

Whammy, I hope Boeing learns from the past.


Yes, and in the end Boeing didn’t make that leap because the numbers and market didn’t work out at that time. So they were cautious and made the correct call when it came time to lay money down.

You can contrast this with Airbus investing substantially in the A340-5/600 and then A380 and hardly being able to sell them. The A330neo looks like it may or may not have been worth the time as well. Based on sales so far the answer is certainly not in yet.

So on NSA Boeing talked and worked the issue until it couldn’t be worked out and ultimately didn’t make a potentially dangerous decision. I would conclude that if they launch this they probably will get it right based on track record.
 
Jamie514
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu May 18, 2017 4:36 pm

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:19 pm

bigjku wrote:
keesje wrote:
I get flash backs here, 2011

Boeing contemplating the NSA, talking to key customers, fully understanding the market, making sure they get it right .

This was a few weeks before the forced (fully undefined) 737 MAX launch : https://youtu.be/rJzRsodeYes?t=36s

I see the chances growing Airbus will pre-empt Boeing here, like we saw 7 years ago.

Image

Whammy, I hope Boeing learns from the past.


Yes, and in the end Boeing didn’t make that leap because the numbers and market didn’t work out at that time. So they were cautious and made the correct call when it came time to lay money down.

You can contrast this with Airbus investing substantially in the A340-5/600 and then A380 and hardly being able to sell them. The A330neo looks like it may or may not have been worth the time as well. Based on sales so far the answer is certainly not in yet.

So on NSA Boeing talked and worked the issue until it couldn’t be worked out and ultimately didn’t make a potentially dangerous decision. I would conclude that if they launch this they probably will get it right based on track record.


In the name of balance, you could just as easily contrast it with Boeing investing substantially in the 767-400 and 747-800.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:21 pm

I like this plane a lot less with 50k engines. How reliable is the sourcing on that projection?
Even with ~5,000nm range for 225 pax, I would have thought a ~11-12AR wing and Ultrafan-gen engines would have kept thrust requirements closer to 40k. Boeing's SVP in charge of the business case was previously resolute that thrust would be ~40k.
Possible reasons for the seeming change:
  • 1. Boeing market research sees a need for NB-ish short-field performance at MDW, BUR, CGH et. al.
  • 2. Boeing is going to try to fit NB gates without a complicated wing-folding mechanism.
  • 3. Boeing is "de-risking" the program by projecting less advanced engines.
  • 4. I'm just way off in projecting the impact of ~2027 wings and engines; 50k engines are needed no matter the gate and field performance.

Regardless of the reason, it seems much less clear that Boeing can achieve either the needed NB cash economics or a low unit sales cost with 50k engines.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 6169
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:32 pm

That sounds more and more like a straight 767 replacement. It is worrying that Boeing is making another plane after the 787 to replace A330s...
 
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william
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:34 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
I like this plane a lot less with 50k engines. How reliable is the sourcing on that projection?
Even with ~5,000nm range for 225 pax, I would have thought a ~11-12AR wing and Ultrafan-gen engines would have kept thrust requirements closer to 40k. Boeing's SVP in charge of the business case was previously resolute that thrust would be ~40k.
Possible reasons for the seeming change:
  • 1. Boeing market research sees a need for NB-ish short-field performance at MDW, BUR, CGH et. al.
  • 2. Boeing is going to try to fit NB gates without a complicated wing-folding mechanism.
  • 3. Boeing is "de-risking" the program by projecting less advanced engines.
  • 4. I'm just way off in projecting the impact of ~2027 wings and engines; 50k engines are needed no matter the gate and field performance.

Regardless of the reason, it seems much less clear that Boeing can achieve either the needed NB cash economics or a low unit sales cost with 50k engines.


Could be for a certain variant of the plane. Not sure Boeing stated it needed a 50K engine or that is just Leehman guessing.
 
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william
Posts: 2481
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:34 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
I like this plane a lot less with 50k engines. How reliable is the sourcing on that projection?
Even with ~5,000nm range for 225 pax, I would have thought a ~11-12AR wing and Ultrafan-gen engines would have kept thrust requirements closer to 40k. Boeing's SVP in charge of the business case was previously resolute that thrust would be ~40k.
Possible reasons for the seeming change:
  • 1. Boeing market research sees a need for NB-ish short-field performance at MDW, BUR, CGH et. al.
  • 2. Boeing is going to try to fit NB gates without a complicated wing-folding mechanism.
  • 3. Boeing is "de-risking" the program by projecting less advanced engines.
  • 4. I'm just way off in projecting the impact of ~2027 wings and engines; 50k engines are needed no matter the gate and field performance.

Regardless of the reason, it seems much less clear that Boeing can achieve either the needed NB cash economics or a low unit sales cost with 50k engines.


Could be for a certain variant of the plane. Not sure Boeing stated it needed a 50K engine or that is just Leehman guessing.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1232
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:38 pm

Jamie514 wrote:
bigjku wrote:
keesje wrote:
I get flash backs here, 2011

Boeing contemplating the NSA, talking to key customers, fully understanding the market, making sure they get it right .

This was a few weeks before the forced (fully undefined) 737 MAX launch : https://youtu.be/rJzRsodeYes?t=36s

I see the chances growing Airbus will pre-empt Boeing here, like we saw 7 years ago.

Image

Whammy, I hope Boeing learns from the past.


Yes, and in the end Boeing didn’t make that leap because the numbers and market didn’t work out at that time. So they were cautious and made the correct call when it came time to lay money down.

You can contrast this with Airbus investing substantially in the A340-5/600 and then A380 and hardly being able to sell them. The A330neo looks like it may or may not have been worth the time as well. Based on sales so far the answer is certainly not in yet.

So on NSA Boeing talked and worked the issue until it couldn’t be worked out and ultimately didn’t make a potentially dangerous decision. I would conclude that if they launch this they probably will get it right based on track record.


In the name of balance, you could just as easily contrast it with Boeing investing substantially in the 767-400 and 747-800.


I agree and I did mention the 767-400 upthread (I think unless I deleted a paragraph somewhere before posting). The A380 is the one that stands out the most cost wise and projection miss wise in terms of what was invested. Most of the others were fairly cheap programs for both companies in the $2-$4 billion range. None of the other misses represent huge development expense. I find the A340 stretches more noteable simply because they occurred at around the same time the A380 was being planned out and represented such a bad misread of the long-range aircraft market taken together. Airbus spent something like $28 billion to sell sell 500 planes between the two programs and saw the 777 dominate the high end widebody market for a long time. There are lots of reasons for it but in the end Airbus got a very big bet wrong.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1232
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:41 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
I like this plane a lot less with 50k engines. How reliable is the sourcing on that projection?
Even with ~5,000nm range for 225 pax, I would have thought a ~11-12AR wing and Ultrafan-gen engines would have kept thrust requirements closer to 40k. Boeing's SVP in charge of the business case was previously resolute that thrust would be ~40k.
Possible reasons for the seeming change:
  • 1. Boeing market research sees a need for NB-ish short-field performance at MDW, BUR, CGH et. al.
  • 2. Boeing is going to try to fit NB gates without a complicated wing-folding mechanism.
  • 3. Boeing is "de-risking" the program by projecting less advanced engines.
  • 4. I'm just way off in projecting the impact of ~2027 wings and engines; 50k engines are needed no matter the gate and field performance.

Regardless of the reason, it seems much less clear that Boeing can achieve either the needed NB cash economics or a low unit sales cost with 50k engines.


Keep in mind Leehams info on this was solely that CFM would waive their contractual limits to bid on the program. If you are offering a range of planes and thrust it’s no unreasonable that the thrust would range from 40,000 to 50,000 across the whole of a family. For CFM that is an issue in that they require a waiver to go above that. That was all that was really reported is that such a waiver would be granted.
 
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Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 17206
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:49 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
I like this plane a lot less with 50k engines. How reliable is the sourcing on that projection?
Even with ~5,000nm range for 225 pax, I would have thought a ~11-12AR wing and Ultrafan-gen engines would have kept thrust requirements closer to 40k. Boeing's SVP in charge of the business case was previously resolute that thrust would be ~40k.
Possible reasons for the seeming change:
  • 1. Boeing market research sees a need for NB-ish short-field performance at MDW, BUR, CGH et. al.
  • 2. Boeing is going to try to fit NB gates without a complicated wing-folding mechanism.
  • 3. Boeing is "de-risking" the program by projecting less advanced engines.
  • 4. I'm just way off in projecting the impact of ~2027 wings and engines; 50k engines are needed no matter the gate and field performance.

Regardless of the reason, it seems much less clear that Boeing can achieve either the needed NB cash economics or a low unit sales cost with 50k engines.

Or maybe engine makers are finding the 50k thrust band is somehow advantageous relative to ~43k?
The gun is NOT a precious symbol of freedom
It is a deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence
 
Route66
Posts: 120
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:47 pm

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:10 pm

scbriml wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Southwest, American, United and Delta as launch customers, that would be unique demonstration of superiority when such big names sign up for one plane.


Nobody knows exactly what the "797" is, yet it's already superior to the competition it doesn't have? :rotfl:


I'll go out on a limb and guess that they probably know more about it than "Nobody".
 
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QuarkFly
Posts: 213
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
Or maybe engine makers are finding the 50k thrust band is somehow advantageous relative to ~43k?


Or, maybe 50k makes it easier or cheaper to downscale existing 60-70k cores (GEnX, T1000), instead of investing in a clean sheet core?
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