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Stitch
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:59 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
You guys (Newbiepilot, Stitch, Revelation) sound like those who thought that entertaining the plans for the 7J7 was some great time filler for Boeing in the eighties, while Airbus exploited the weakness of the 737 Classics to raise from a side liner to a mighty competitor.


Boeing started firm configuration of the 7J7 in 1985, probably shortly after the 737-300 entered service. Already having a brand-new model entering service, they looked to what they felt were viable technologies within the next decade including FBW, glass-cockpits, lithium-aluminum alloys, CFRP and new engine technologies (UDF) offering significant fuel efficiencies as fuel prices had doubled between 1978 and 1981. That they would return to 1978 prices by 1988 and the failure of the first generation UDFs to meet noise and vibration targets led to the engine falling out of failure and Boeing also investigated using the SuperFan engine being developed for the A340 in a traditional under-wing installation.

And let us not forget that Airbus had second-mover advantage - they knew what Boeing was planning with the 737-300 as well as having seen how airlines were using the 757-200. So they could tailor the A320 to provide more capacity than the 737-300 with similar design range to what most operators at the time were doing with the 757-200 (even if the 757-200 could go farther).


rheinwaldner wrote:
Remarkable that the MOM ideas of a small twin aisle are also just copy-paste from the 7J7...


Not really considering the 7J7 was designed to replace the 727-200 as a short-to-medium range airliner whereas MoM is designed to replace the 767-200ER (and A310) as a medium-to-long range airliner.


rheinwaldner wrote:
Like Kessje I predict that no MOM will be launched before the market dynamics are understood, that could cost Boeing any meaningful NB presence...


It is unfortunate that PDX Lite is no longer updating the A320no and 737MAX sales charts as I would not be surprised if the MAX's sales surge since the launch of the 737-10 (beyond just the model conversions from existing orders) has probably significantly shrunk the respective "sales per day" metric between the two. And considering the MAX has been on offer for less time, I don't think Boeing is at risk of having anything less than a serious NB presence.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:00 pm

Stitch I'm not sure which order surge since the launch of the -10 you are referring to, the -10 order book minus the United -9 -10 conversion is simply unimpressive IMO.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... y_customer

Loyal Boeing believers like Newbiepilot might believe whatever Boeing communicates, to turn like a leaf in the wind when Boeing changes its mind again. Over the last 25 yrs I learned 1+1 =2 also in aerospace. Boeing communicating they are on the right track is nothing special. It serves a goal.

http://www.boeingblogs.com/randy/archives/2010/08/sharks_and_jets.html
Last edited by keesje on Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:23 pm

So Airbus is winning the NB market and the A321 has no competitor, I would think the Airbus fans would be crowing versus complaining about Boeing letting Airbus take the NB market, I'm confused.
The A350 has already rendered the 777 obsolete and the 777X is not having an effect on the A380, I would think it should be the Boeing fans complaining, not Airbus fans.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:43 pm

Dismissing every question about Boeing strategy as another Airbus versus Boeing comment can be justified. It can also be an escape tactic to avoid discussing the topic if you feel you might not like observations or conclusions. I regulary observe that tactic.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:49 pm

keesje wrote:
Dismissing every question about Boeing strategy as another Airbus versus Boeing comment can be justified. It can also be an escape tactic to avoid discussing the topic if you feel you might not like observations or conclusions. I regulary observe that tactic.


I regularly see you post that Boeing will imminently rethink their plan, Airbus execs are popping champagne, and then suggest terrible designs instead like a 767MAX, 787-8 relaunch and an extra wide long narrowbody.

How much longer before we close this thread until some new information gets shared?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:57 am

keesje wrote:
It can also be an escape tactic to avoid discussing the topic

....yes but which topic?
This thread is about Boeing's program to flesh out the 797 plans, so what should it be, how should they build it, who the customers are, the probably market and yes the gap that exist in Boeing's line up and one that has existed since they ceased selling the 757 and we all know that one of the reasons why the 757 ceased selling was the A321-100, not the 200 or NEO or NEOLR.
If we stick to Boeing the thread would either get more traction or cease to drive interest, turning it into where Airbus has this market cornered and how they will respond does have some significance but it is secondary, after all, if a Boeing customer wants an a/c with more capacity than the 737-800/MAX but do not want to spend 787 money, what are Boeing's choices, the Airbus A321 in any variant?
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:42 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Dismissing every question about Boeing strategy as another Airbus versus Boeing comment can be justified. It can also be an escape tactic to avoid discussing the topic if you feel you might not like observations or conclusions. I regulary observe that tactic.


I regularly see you post that Boeing will imminently rethink their plan, Airbus execs are popping champagne, and then suggest terrible designs instead like a 767MAX, 787-8 relaunch and an extra wide long narrowbody.

How much longer before we close this thread until some new information gets shared?


Newbiepilot, if we closed a thread if you share no new info, many might get closed early.

Boeing is very realistic. They launched the 737-9 and got hundreds of orders and commitments from many airlines. The aircraft meets it's specs and more new orders will follow over its lifecycle probably up to 2030. Since the launch of the MAX program in august 2011 the it sold 4000 and many orders will be converted to -9s overtime.

Suggestions to do more radical improvements on the -9 as suggested here on a.net make no sense at all. Just anti Boeing . Boeing clearly communicates it fully stands behind the -9.

And then they did the -10 afterall. Another day..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:15 am

We talking about the MAX program or the NG...because we know that Boeing did not intend to launch the MAX series, they wanted the NSA, so far everyone seems to be in agreement that they were forced into the MAX because of Airbus NEO program.
Debates on this site were endless related to what the NSA would be, how it would compete against the A32X-XX series etc etc etc then bam, they launched the MAX, so were they fooling the public with the NSA all along and they just fell asleep and let Airbus launch the NEO before them, do you really want to believe that is how it happened?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:18 am

keesje wrote:
I think Boeing might be reconsidering if the MAX (-10) isn't strong enough and Boeing is not willing to go below 40% marketsharket (probably 30 % revenue share) in the NB segment.

Your analysis of market share is completely wrong. It is too simplistic and does not include any complex details.

Sales per month would be a better indication of program success. For example
Aircraft A: Launched 2 years ago with 1000 sales
Aircraft B: Launched 4 years ago with 1500 sales
Aircraft B has 50% more sales but Aircraft A has 33% more sales per month.

The 737max8 program is 15 months behind the A320neo. At the same production rate both aircraft have equal backlog in terms of months of production.

The 737-10 and the A321LR were both launched late after the first flight of the family. Both have larger capacity and required more engineering. The A321LR also had conversions from the other models.

I love details and looking deeper into the orders you can see the A320 orders are from airlines with higher growth expectations. For example.
Airline A: ordered 100NEO's to replace 50CEO's.
Airline B: ordered 80MAX's to replace 60NG's.
If both airlines had equal growth the 737MAX will end up getting more market share.

The 737 currently has a 60/40 market share in Boeing favour in terms of aircraft in service. Both manufacturers will have equal production rates for many years to come. So Airbus will not actually gain any market share at all.

So to say Boeing has a 30% revenue share is laughable. You don't know the profit margins but Boeing definitely has a tighter manufacturing base. Money changes hands on delivery so at equal production rate the revenue share will be fairly equal.

This will remain the same for the next 10 years.
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:39 am

par13del wrote:
so were they fooling the public with the NSA all along and they just fell asleep and let Airbus launch the NEO before them, do you really want to believe that is how it happened?

Actually that is how it happened.

Pratt and Whitney launched the geared turbofan in 2006 when the Bombardier C series was announced. There was no engine in the required thrust range for the C series and derated CFM56's wouldn't have cut it. As soon as Airbus saw the fuel burn of the geared turbofan on the A340 test frame in 2009 they launched the NEO the following year. Boeing launched 10 months later.
 
oslmgm
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 5:06 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The 737 currently has a 60/40 market share in Boeing favour in terms of aircraft in service. Both manufacturers will have equal production rates for many years to come. So Airbus will not actually gain any market share at all.


Where did you find that 60/40 number?
I just had a look at http://www.planespotters.net, and - unless I did something wrong - the numbers of active planes are:

737: 7257
320: 7127

That's a 50.5%/49.5% split. And if they have equal production rates going forward, it will be the retiring planes that will make the numbers change. My assumption is that a larger part of the oldest planes are 737s, so that the A320 share will increase in the years to come. (This is only my assumption, I don't really know.)*

With the difference being only 130 planes right now, I wouldn't be surprised if there are more A320s than 737s sometime in 2018. Would be fun if you want to dig into the numbers to make a more qualified prediction.

Edit:
*Assumption based on the higher number of A320s produced the past 15 years. (Around 575 more A320s than 737s since 2003.)
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:45 am

Stitch wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
Remarkable that the MOM ideas of a small twin aisle are also just copy-paste from the 7J7...

Not really considering the 7J7 was designed to replace the 727-200 as a short-to-medium range airliner whereas MoM is designed to replace the 767-200ER (and A310) as a medium-to-long range airliner.

It was a twin aisle so all the "lets have single aisle economics with two aisles" was there too...

Stitch wrote:
And considering the MAX has been on offer for less time, I don't think Boeing is at risk of having anything less than a serious NB presence.

How is that relevant, if we consider that the MAX will also be on offer for less time at the end of its life (it is common sense that the NSA will ultimately be launched before Airbus will replace the A320)?

All that sales per day metric is just useful to blur the big picture. Market share is defined differently.

Ok, I was wrong that Boeing having a serious NB presence is at risk. Because I would also consider 20% market share as serious NB presence. E.g. whatever the C Series has is also serious NB presence. I am just not sure whether Boeing would be happy with that kind of NB presence.

par13del wrote:
keesje wrote:
It can also be an escape tactic to avoid discussing the topic

....yes but which topic?
This thread is about Boeing's program to flesh out the 797 plans, so what should it be, how should they build it, who the customers are, the probably market and yes the gap that exist in Boeing's line up and one that has existed since they ceased selling the 757 and we all know that one of the reasons why the 757 ceased selling was the A321-100, not the 200 or NEO or NEOLR.

The topic are Boeings MOM plans. And here I see parallels between the market dynamics that made Airbus big and the today situation. If Boeing would have been fully alerted in the eighties, Airbus would not have succeeded with the A320. Therefore fleshing out 797 plans can also mean, that the attempts will stall (like the 7J7) and the focus will put somewhere else. The MOM would cover a nice market. But the today 737 market is far more crucial for Boeing. And Boeing is much more attentive these days. They refer even to the eighties and the raise of the A320 to explain e.g. 737 prices of ~$23 millions per piece:
Conner said Boeing did so specifically to block Bombardier’s new plane.
He recalled how Boeing had lost similar sales battles in the 1990s to the Airbus A320, allowing that jet to gain traction against the 737.

(extract from the link below)
And because of all of that the 797 plans might turn out differently. IMHO Boeing should build a new NB, that does not leave the sub 200-seat market uncovered, but does extend into 757 territory.

RJMAZ wrote:
Your analysis of market share is completely wrong. It is too simplistic and does not include any complex details.

Market share is a well defined term and it is nothing of the things you mention.

RJMAZ wrote:
So to say Boeing has a 30% revenue share is laughable. You don't know the profit margins but Boeing definitely has a tighter manufacturing base. Money changes hands on delivery so at equal production rate the revenue share will be fairly equal.

You don't know the profit margins either, right? So we have to discuss based on other evidence. Like this one:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/price-war-plane-transitions-put-financial-crunch-on-boeing/
Some quotes:
    “Ultimately we won, but I’m going to tell you, we got pushed to the wall,” Conner told his employees.
    “Airlines once paid a premium for the value of Boeing airplanes,” Conner wrote.
    David Strauss, aerospace analyst with UBS Investment Research, said one external factor that’s shifted is the strength of the dollar against the euro, which boosts Airbus’ profits and leaves it room for more aggressive pricing.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:49 am

oslmgm wrote:
*Assumption based on the higher number of A320s produced the past 15 years. (Around 575 more A320s than 737s since 2003.)

My spreadsheet of deliveries shows
Last 29 years: 737- 8317 A320- 7672
Last 19 years: 737- 6826 A320- 6920
Last 10 years: 737- 4533 A320- 4702
Last 5 years: 737- 2793 A320- 2725

There definitely wasn't 575 more A320 deliveries.

I'm fairly certain there's more than 0.5% advantage to the 737 in service. But the 60/40 was in regards to Keesje's 40/60 statement.

Most of the A320 orders aren't firm. A huge portion will get cancelled or deferred for many years until the current aircraft eventually wear out. Indigo partners ordered 430 Neo's. They don't even have a 150 aircraft in their fleet which is totally unrealistic. Most of the big A320 orders are from customers expecting to at least double their fleet size.

In contrast the biggest 737max orders they are less than double and in some cases less than the current narrowbody fleet size. If you take the top 10 biggest orders from both the 737 and A320 you can see this massive difference. With such a large backlog both will suffer from deferrals and cancelations, but Airbus will definitely see MUCH more.

If you assume similar market growth across all airlines the 737 actually has more firm orders in total and much more orders on a monthly basis since launch.
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:53 am

sassiciai wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Revelation wrote:

There are 2 things in the quotes above that surprise me

The first is ""We're listening to our customers from around the globe on what market they need," - do airlines need a market, or are they actually confronted by one and required to service it? In which case, it is not the role of an OEM to tell them what market they need, nor what spec of aircraft will fit that bill!

The second is an admission at this moment that while Boeing thinks it has defined a "very compelling airplane", Boeing as yet has no viable business plan for said airplane


Sorry, but I don't think the quotes suggest that Boeing have defined anything. All it says is that there is a big space that, given the composite and airplane technology, they think they can fill with a compelling airplane.

"The formalising of a structure was really to make sure we have our best and brightest taking a hard look at what our customers want, and what are the economics for them and for us in doing this airplane," McAllister says. "We're listening to our customers from around the globe on what market they need," he adds.

"There's a big space between the single-aisle and the twins. We think, with the composite technology and the airplane technology, we can fill that with a very compelling airplane. We'll continue to study it with customers and continue to look at can we get the right business plan."


They haven't definitively said what that plane is. They've made lots of suggestions. The quotes do make it abundantly clear that the purpose of the programme office is to interrogate the business case, not to design a plane.
And that aligns with what I understand a programme office to be in this environment.

That they are putting so much effort into examining the business case tells us that it is a difficult one to get to close at the moment.

Taking their time is the right thing for Boeing to do to a) make sure it's right, and b) sow uncertainty in the market.

We won't see a decision in 2018 IMO

Rgds
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:01 am

Stitch wrote:
It is unfortunate that PDX Lite is no longer updating the A320no and 737MAX sales charts as I would not be surprised if the MAX's sales surge since the launch of the 737-10 (beyond just the model conversions from existing orders) has probably significantly shrunk the respective "sales per day" metric between the two. And considering the MAX has been on offer for less time, I don't think Boeing is at risk of having anything less than a serious NB presence.



Well the current orders per day for the MAX is 1.84 per day (as per Boeing orders up to 19 December and launch from 29 July 2011). From the PDX numbers when it stopped the number of orders per day has stayed roughly the same (1.86 - 1.84). For the NEO the current orders per day is 2.05 (Orders up to 30 November and launch 1 December 2010). The average order per day has gone down (2.54 to 2.05).

The OEMs can only sell what they have to deliver from this point on, if the delivery slots are all taken as we think they are for the next few years. So delivery slots will be as important to sales in the next decade as that will dictate what sales can be made for either model. Airbus and Boeing is currently selling almost exactly their proposed 2019 delivery rate. So we are where we are I suppose with the amount of sales per day and unless one or both increases the production rate again it seems that the major sales campaigns will take a back seat for now and both will sell around 600-700 of either model per year on average.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:11 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Most of the A320 orders aren't firm. A huge portion will get cancelled or deferred for many years until the current aircraft eventually wear out. Indigo partners ordered 430 Neo's. They don't even have a 150 aircraft in their fleet which is totally unrealistic. Most of the big A320 orders are from customers expecting to at least double their fleet size.

In contrast the biggest 737max orders they are less than double and in some cases less than the current narrowbody fleet size. If you take the top 10 biggest orders from both the 737 and A320 you can see this massive difference. With such a large backlog both will suffer from deferrals and cancelations, but Airbus will definitely see MUCH more.

If you assume similar market growth across all airlines the 737 actually has more firm orders in total and much more orders on a monthly basis since launch.



Flydubai fleet size, 61 aircraft. On order, 246 with 50 options. Do you want to reconsider your statement? Okay that is one airline, lets look at Lion Air, with 116 aircraft in their fleet and 199 on order for the MAX. What about SpiceJet, with 34 aircraft in their fleet and 175 MAX on order. Then Norwegian Air Shuttle with a fleet of 52 and 110 MAX on order. Yes, but its Airbus that has way more orders from airlines than their current fleets. Damn you Airbus.

Also, the Airbus orders aren't firm? Really? Any evidence other than just your opinion?

Edited quote
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:22 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
Market share is a well defined term and it is nothing of the things you mention.

Market share is the current user base and then yearly deliveries/purchases. Boeing currently has more 737's in service.

Boeing will be out delivering Airbus by 3-5% over the next 3 years. So Boeing is actually increasing its market share by the well defined definition.

Orders mean nothing as the deposits taken are negligible. With both manufacturers increasing production rate the backlog will reduce in 5 years time and we will see just how firm the orders are. The unrealistic growth expectations from the A320 customers will begin to show as they will have to start actually paying for the aircraft.

I actually dislike Boeing. But I'm just sick of people saying the A320NEO is superior and has bigger market share. Boeing must be respected for pushing their design to the limit with the 900ER and again with the max10. Airbus's taller, stronger and higher lift A321 could easily have been stretched 3-4m which annoys me.
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:26 am

Stitch wrote:
It is unfortunate that PDX Lite is no longer updating the A320no and 737MAX sales charts as I would not be surprised if the MAX's sales surge since the launch of the 737-10 (beyond just the model conversions from existing orders) has probably significantly shrunk the respective "sales per day" metric between the two. And considering the MAX has been on offer for less time, I don't think Boeing is at risk of having anything less than a serious NB presence.


I can help here.
End November figures were:-
NEO - 5254
MAX - 4065

Since the MAX was launched, the figures are:-
NEO - 4686
MAX - 4065

Giving the NEO a 621 frame advantage since the MAX was launched.
This has come down from a peak advantage for the NEO in the same time period of 950 in Sept 2016

But the NEO still has a healthy lead despite this year's woes.

I'm not sure though why we would talk about either a surge in MAX orders per se- 685 this year to November is strong, but pretty much par for course for these 2 types. Or a surge since the 737-10 was launched - in the grand scheme of things it has barely moved the needle.

But what HAS happened since Sept 2016 is that Airbus have run into clear difficulties with the ramp up of the NEO, especially in P+W guise, and this has severely stunted the last 12 month's figures.
Only 332 orders in the year to end November is nowhere near par for course.
(On the bright side it allows RJMAZ to claim that Airbus only have 30% market share in narrowbodys, so at least someone gets some happy ;) )

Having a hundred or so engineless frames standing about, and significant questions asked about one of the engines is never going to be good for sales in the year.
The NEO has such a big backlog it REALLY needs that ramp up to happen.

I do expect NEO orders to pick up again next year

Rgds
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:49 am

enzo011 wrote:
Well the current orders per day for the MAX is 1.84 per day (as per Boeing orders up to 19 December and launch from 29 July 2011). From the PDX numbers when it stopped the number of orders per day has stayed roughly the same (1.86 - 1.84). For the NEO the current orders per day is 2.05 (Orders up to 30 November and launch 1 December 2010). The average order per day has gone down (2.54 to 2.05).
The 737's took longer to go from launch to first flight, this suggests it was a rushed response. Customers knew deliveries would start a year and a half after the A320. This would be reflected in the orders. So orders per day would change.

Yes you can also find a lot of 737's customers with unrealistic growth projections.

Airasia 88 fleet size 356neo orders. We could go back and forth.
 
Olddog
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:54 am

RJMAZ you can chose any metric that suits your agenda, you fool only youself.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:54 am

astuteman wrote:
Giving the NEO a 621 frame advantage since the MAX was launched.

That way you include the order rush after the launch of the MAX and exclude the same peak in the A320 order book. That is a very skewed comparison.
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StTim
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:03 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Giving the NEO a 621 frame advantage since the MAX was launched.

That way you include the order rush after the launch of the MAX and exclude the same peak in the A320 order book. That is a very skewed comparison.

I think he was trying to skew it that way to show that the neo still outsold the MAX.

Funny how this thread on a potential 797 has turned into a standard neo vs MAX slugfest.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:12 am

Sorry, but it does not matter if you have 4000 or 4800 frames in the backlog, as both are approaching a 8 production years backlog. The only thing that changed from the CEO/NG is that the second engine option on the Airbus is more attractive, so this is kind of a wildcard in many deals.

However both sell good enough to leave a space for a plane above them, either a derivate of the existing plane or something new. Strategically Boeing seems well set, with the tried 737 being better on short routes and generally cheaper to produce, while the 797 will come in and redefine the medium range market. Imho if one manufacturer is in a weak position is Airbus, as 50% of its aircraft models do not sell well. (A380/A330)
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:33 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The 737's took longer to go from launch to first flight, this suggests it was a rushed response. Customers knew deliveries would start a year and a half after the A320. This would be reflected in the orders. So orders per day would change.

Yes you can also find a lot of 737's customers with unrealistic growth projections.

Airasia 88 fleet size 356neo orders. We could go back and forth.



Which no-one would dispute. But your assertion that, "In contrast the biggest 737max orders they are less than double and in some cases less than the current narrowbody fleet size" is not totally true either. Both OEMs have orders on their books that look very optimistic in regard to growth. We can play around with the figures as much as we like to find the desired outcome of our own arguments. Boeing had the 737 in production and had an established customer base when the A320 was launched and started delivering. With that in mind the A320 has not just established itself as a competitor but in its latest iteration is currently outselling the competition, even when changing the "start" date for comparing sales. In the end the A320 will outsell and deliver more aircraft than the 737 (on current deliveries and sales). It will take some time, but it will get there eventually, not bad for an aircraft introduced in service almost 20 years later.
 
parapente
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:44 am

797 Boeing plans
We have seen both families of 737 and 320 get bigger and bigger.Sometimes this is achieved via internal changes (slimline seats ,reworked galleys and loos and door placements)sometimes ,like the 7310 via a physical stretch.This has been demanded by the airlines as this market has experienced exponental growth.
So now no 318 or 319 or 737-7 really.The business starts at 190-200 seats and (at present) ends at 230-240 seats.
One assumes that Boeing and their customers see this growth pattern continuing over the next decade or two so now there is a future need to get even bigger and in certain cases longer ranged ,the 4,000knm A321LR has been given a warm welcome generally.

Boeing have decided that at this size you must move to a twin aisle solution.But to retain economics 'squash' it to minimise drag and overall fuse weight.So an ovoid carbon X7 aircraft.Clearly it will have state of the art laminar high aspect ratio wing and GTF engines.
Size? It is said 220-270 -that makes total sense.Range (the tricky one) it appears a max of about 5,000nm-5,,500nm

I can't see anything odd or illogical about their thinking really.Straight common sense.Personally a little surprised at the range,would have thought more 4,5-5,0 myself but they will have their reasons.
Be more than surprised if it's not revealed at Farnbrough.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:53 am

There are a few problems in the way though. Laminar flow wings are imho not ready for an EIS by 2025 and the next gen turbofan is still facing the problem of the legal battle over patented GTF technology between PW and GE and PW and RR. Add the squashed ovoid form and the use of out of autoclave composites and it might be too early for a product launch in 2018.
 
oslmgm
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:54 am

RJMAZ wrote:
oslmgm wrote:
*Assumption based on the higher number of A320s produced the past 15 years. (Around 575 more A320s than 737s since 2003.)

My spreadsheet of deliveries shows
Last 29 years: 737- 8317 A320- 7672
Last 19 years: 737- 6826 A320- 6920
Last 10 years: 737- 4533 A320- 4702
Last 5 years: 737- 2793 A320- 2725

There definitely wasn't 575 more A320 deliveries.


OK, let's take a closer look.

The following numbers are from Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competitio ... deliveries
I double checked the Boeing numbers with http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries (Wikipedia and Boeing showing identical numbers)
I couldn't find deliveries for each year at airbus.com, but the total (7874 delivered) is the same at airbus.com and Wikipedia, so I see no reason not to trust the Wikipedia numbers:

Dlvrs 737 A320
2007 330 367
2008 290 386
2009 372 402
2010 376 401
2011 372 421
2012 415 455
2013 440 493
2014 485 490
2015 495 491
2016 490 545
2017 468 453
total 4533 vs 4904 (371 more A320s over the "Last 10 years")

Your "Last 10 years" above must be 2007 through November 2017 (almost 11 years), where the 737 deliveries are 4533.
For the same period, the A320 number is 4904 according to Wikipedia, while your number is 4702. What's your source?

RJMAZ wrote:
I'm fairly certain there's more than 0.5% advantage to the 737 in service. But the 60/40 was in regards to Keesje's 40/60 statement.

I think he was talking about orders, but it doesn't really matter, because your statement was crystal clear - about "aircraft in service":
RJMAZ wrote:
The 737 currently has a 60/40 market share in Boeing favour in terms of aircraft in service.

This is the statement we're now discussing. I think you need to provide a better source for your numbers than just "My spreadsheet", if you want anyone to belive that the 0.5% advantage isn't the correct one.

BTW, I just noticed that the same Wikipedia page also has a section called "Commercial airliners still in operation". The numbers for 2017:

737: 6864
320: 6965

The source is a document called WorldCensus2017.pdf at http://www.flightglobal.com/asset/18365 - which I haven't paid for. But according to this, the A320 has already more than 50%. So, two sources tell us that your number is wrong.

RJMAZ wrote:
If you assume similar market growth across all airlines the 737 actually has more firm orders in total and much more orders on a monthly basis since launch.


Even if you make that assumption, you can't reasonably jump to "737 actually has more firm orders". Now, English isn't my language, but I still have an idea of what "actually" means. (Or maybe you have a very different definition of "firm orders" - it's not a projection!)

All in all, your comparisons/analyses seem very unreasonable.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:01 am

astuteman wrote:
But the NEO still has a healthy lead despite this year's woes.

...

Only 332 orders in the year to end November is nowhere near par for course.


Those figures will change quite a bit once the Delta, Viva Air & Pegasus orders are added in. They'll change significantly if Indigo Partners order is firmed this year.

RJMAZ wrote:
Yes you can also find a lot of 737's customers with unrealistic growth projections.


So why did you only mention it for Airbus originally? :sarcastic:

RJMAZ wrote:
Airasia 88 fleet size 356neo orders. We could go back and forth.


You do realise that "AirAsia" is a group of airlines, not just a single one? At the end of November, AirAsia group was operating 193 A320s. You're welcome.
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astuteman
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:03 am

StTim wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Giving the NEO a 621 frame advantage since the MAX was launched.

That way you include the order rush after the launch of the MAX and exclude the same peak in the A320 order book. That is a very skewed comparison.

I think he was trying to skew it that way to show that the neo still outsold the MAX.


I wasn't trying to skew anything, nor did I, unlike someone on the thread who insists on doing so (not you, obviously).

It is just a statistic. Period.

Rgds
 
chiad
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:10 am

astuteman wrote:

Only 332 orders in the year to end November is nowhere near par for course.
(On the bright side it allows RJMAZ to claim that Airbus only have 30% market share in narrowbodys, so at least someone gets some happy ;) )

Having a hundred or so engineless frames standing about, and significant questions asked about one of the engines is never going to be good for sales in the year.
The NEO has such a big backlog it REALLY needs that ramp up to happen.

I do expect NEO orders to pick up again next year

Rgds


2017 may not be as bad as we fear.

There has been some orders for December;

Delta Airlines: 100 frames - 14. dec
Pegasus Airlines: 25 frames - 21. dec
Viva Air: 50 frames (35 NEOs) - 22. dec

And if the Indigo Partners' MoU for 430 units firms up, maybe in the Leahy's fifth (and final) quarter then ..... you know :mrgreen:
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:25 am

astuteman wrote:
StTim wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
That way you include the order rush after the launch of the MAX and exclude the same peak in the A320 order book. That is a very skewed comparison.

I think he was trying to skew it that way to show that the neo still outsold the MAX.


I wasn't trying to skew anything, nor did I, unlike someone on the thread who insists on doing so (not you, obviously).

It is just a statistic. Period.

Rgds

My apologies.
 
parapente
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:47 am

3 fair and well made points Seahawk.
Other than the fact that the Russians appear to have achieved it (out of autoclave) I must say I am not knowledgeable enough to comment.But is autoclave so bad?Clearly Boeing now have heaps of knowledge and the machines to go with it ( with their 787 partners).They said that the 787 fuse was over engineered for safety.I am sure their mark 2 would be better and their mandril technique seems ( to me) to be very clever.

Full laminar flow,again you are right.But I imagine that the experience of designing and building the 787 wing and now the 777x wings. Should leave them in a good place.They must be right up to scratch.The 787 wing is clearly a very good one.

GTF patents ? Mmmm.GTF is not new in itself.I am sure there are elements of the Purepower that may have been patented.But I have to think that RR and GE know this.GE bought that gearing company that P&W use I thought and RR own Williams that did it all way before so personally I don't think this will be a show stopper.

Of course you could wait.But sometimes you can wait for ever as progress never stops.Also (from the 767 discussions) one gets the impression that their customers are getting impatient.Neither do they wish to leave the marketplace to Airbus.It may not be perfect ( it clearly isn't) but the A321NEO LR is the closest aircraft out there and EIS is only 18 months away.So they do need to get a move on perhaps.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:43 am

Boeing has 4100 MAX in the backlog and Airbus and Airbus 5500 NEO's excl. Indigo. Didn't AA order MaX 9 months after NEO launch.

Anyway not a relevant discussion because production seems maxed out. Looking at recent orders, the airlines behind them, leasing companies, " % unidentified customers" and the way Boeing been making technical changes to the MAX portfolio, a possible delay of NMA decision would be totally unsurprizing.

The 737 MAX does not seem a perfect fit for the next decade. Recent moves by Boeing and airlines show, if you allow yourself to see. I have confidence Boeing management is able to see and take actions required. Can we see this seperately from the BBD-Airbus deal, DL/Indigo orders, talks with Embraer and the 4 yr NMA discussion possibly being pushed back a few years? Not IMO.
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Bricktop
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:58 pm

And we all finding out now how Airbus got those orders, aren't we? :duck:

Can we return the discussion back to the 797, and not the tedious unedifying "mine is bigger" back and forth?
 
BlueSky1976
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:16 pm

seahawk wrote:
Imho if one manufacturer is in a weak position is Airbus, as 50% of its aircraft models do not sell well. (A380/A330)


Using the same metric, one can say that Boeing is in a weak position, as 50% of its aircraft models do not sell well. (747 and 777X).
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parapente
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:01 pm

The vast backlog of both A&B along with the vast associated profits is of course the elephant in the room.It was not so many years ago that the accepted benchmark for sales success for an aircraft programme was selling 1,000 aircraft!

These narrowbodies have already sold 4-5,000 with the above 4-5,000 future backlog.Obviously it's wrong to say it's the only game in town,but it's certainly the one that allows the others to be played.
The sub 150 market is hardly a market anyone really wants to be in right now,the VLA market is dead in the water,the nearest thing to it is a half price derivative (which is sensible btw).Leaving the real middle of market to 2 fine new aircraft (not 3).
Boeing can call the 797 a MOM as much as it likes but I don't think it is that at all.Its where they see part of the lucrative narrow body market going in 10 +years time.Not saying they are right,just what I think they see.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:58 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
(The 7J7) was a twin aisle so all the "lets have single aisle economics with two aisles" was there too...


Looking back at all the PR statements and aerospace media articles, no such claim was being made. The 7J7 was supposed to be much more fuel efficient, but that was due to the UDF engines and more modern aerodynamics and materials, not because it was a twin-aisle airframe. It was a twin-aisle airframe to reduce turnaround times because the UDF was slower than conventional turbofans so to maintain similar airframe utilization, it needed to do more segments per day. It also provided 727-200 capacity with a 6m shorter airframe.


rheinwaldner wrote:
Ok, I was wrong that Boeing having a serious NB presence is at risk. Because I would also consider 20% market share as serious NB presence. E.g. whatever the C Series has is also serious NB presence. I am just not sure whether Boeing would be happy with that kind of NB presence.


The C-Series is not going to be a major player in the 737 (or A320) space - doubly so now that they are depending on Airbus to sell them. So we're not going to see a CS-500 / CS-700 competing directly with the 738/A320 and 73X/A321. The A319neo is going nowhere and Airbus has admitted as such by noting they will prioritize CS300 sales over A319 sales. There is no way they will do the same with the successful A320neo, much less the very successful A321neo. The 737-7 is doing equally as poor at the moment, but Southwest will eventually order hundreds of them to make that program worth the effort (they will not go to the CS300).
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:27 pm

parapente wrote:
GTF patents ? Mmmm.GTF is not new in itself.I am sure there are elements of the Purepower that may have been patented.But I have to think that RR and GE know this.GE bought that gearing company that P&W use I thought and RR own Williams that did it all way before so personally I don't think this will be a show stopper..


Well at least P&W can delay any engine decision that goes against them and includes a GTF on the other side with a lengthy legal fight and they are willing to do just that.
http://aviationweek.com/paris-air-show- ... ology-lead

And in my personal opinion GE is in the weakest position of all 3 when it comes to GTF technology, as RR does claim the use of SuperFan intellectual property that was shared by PW and RR, while GE has no similar claim on the technological roots of the PW GTF. In any case it will be risk for the timetable or mean that that competition will need to find different gearbox solutions that what PW uses.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
parapente wrote:
GTF patents ? Mmmm.GTF is not new in itself.I am sure there are elements of the Purepower that may have been patented.But I have to think that RR and GE know this.GE bought that gearing company that P&W use I thought and RR own Williams that did it all way before so personally I don't think this will be a show stopper..


Well at least P&W can delay any engine decision that goes against them and includes a GTF on the other side with a lengthy legal fight and they are willing to do just that.
http://aviationweek.com/paris-air-show- ... ology-lead

And in my personal opinion GE is in the weakest position of all 3 when it comes to GTF technology, as RR does claim the use of SuperFan intellectual property that was shared by PW and RR, while GE has no similar claim on the technological roots of the PW GTF. In any case it will be risk for the timetable or mean that that competition will need to find different gearbox solutions that what PW uses.

Interestingly enough, GE bought the company that makes PW's gears. It could make for some interesting "shenanigans"...
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 5:31 pm

rj777 wrote:
I've never seen a 764 with a triple bogey before.


You didn't read the post carefully. The 764 has 777-derived wheels and brakes, not a 777-derived bogey design. The MLG bogey is unique to the 764 and one of the major reasons any further production of 764s is vanishingly unlikely.
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:42 pm

It will be interesting to see what Boeing comes up with for the 797. I'm very excited to see the results. Both single and double aisle frames have their pros and cons. Either way, I'm rooting for a great plane.
Whatever
 
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:48 pm

astuteman wrote:
They haven't definitively said what that plane is. They've made lots of suggestions. The quotes do make it abundantly clear that the purpose of the programme office is to interrogate the business case, not to design a plane.
And that aligns with what I understand a programme office to be in this environment.

That they are putting so much effort into examining the business case tells us that it is a difficult one to get to close at the moment.

Taking their time is the right thing for Boeing to do to a) make sure it's right, and b) sow uncertainty in the market.

We won't see a decision in 2018 IMO

Rgds


Actually; I think they have a business case already. What I believe they are looking at is what is the best business case out of several size and production method options; and that has a lot to do with seriously studying how those options will be produced and if the sub contractors can realistically support them. It appears that they are applying lessons learned from the 787.

The cost benefit of spending more time planning and looking at different production options at this stage versus figuring it out in progress is likely at least $10 Million per aircraft (and maybe several times that).

By getting it right... and being able to more accurately project final cost... they can get the sale price right too.. (and likely lower than otherwise). Getting the planning and process right up front makes it more difficult for a competitor to respond in a timely manner as well.

My suspicion is that the 797 will gobble noticable market share...

I think we could see a decision in mid to late 2018, and I would expect it no later than sometime in 2019.

Have a great day,
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:51 pm

It seems I'm not the only one thinking the NMA will shrink from ~767 size to slightly larger than A320 family. Optimized to also cover the shorter ranges 737 replacement market. Offering a worthy, probably superior A320 family competitor.

Image

http://247wallst.com/aerospace-defense/2017/11/08/whats-going-on-with-boeings-new-midmarket-aircraft/
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
parapente wrote:
GTF patents ? Mmmm.GTF is not new in itself.I am sure there are elements of the Purepower that may have been patented.But I have to think that RR and GE know this.GE bought that gearing company that P&W use I thought and RR own Williams that did it all way before so personally I don't think this will be a show stopper..


Well at least P&W can delay any engine decision that goes against them and includes a GTF on the other side with a lengthy legal fight and they are willing to do just that.
http://aviationweek.com/paris-air-show- ... ology-lead

And in my personal opinion GE is in the weakest position of all 3 when it comes to GTF technology, as RR does claim the use of SuperFan intellectual property that was shared by PW and RR, while GE has no similar claim on the technological roots of the PW GTF. In any case it will be risk for the timetable or mean that that competition will need to find different gearbox solutions that what PW uses.

Interestingly enough, GE bought the company that makes PW's gears. It could make for some interesting "shenanigans"...


Indeed, this has the option for a long legal battle, especially if Boeing does not do a competition for the MoM engine, but goes with GE as a risk sharing partner. But if we look at the 777X project, engine selection happened in March 2013 with EiS 6.5 years later. So the time frame for the 797 seems quite ambitious for a complete new design and engine.

So to make it, they would be selling a very defined product to the airlines right now. And to be honest it does not sound like that at all.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:30 pm

keesje wrote:
It seems I'm not the only one thinking the NMA will shrink from ~767 size to slightly larger than A320 family. Optimized to also cover the shorter ranges 737 replacement market. Offering a worthy, probably superior A320 family competitor.

http://247wallst.com/aerospace-defense/2017/11/08/whats-going-on-with-boeings-new-midmarket-aircraft/


Wrong. The link you provided does not agree with your idea that the NMA will shrink to slightly larger than the A320 family. That link has a capacity range of 220-270. According to the Boeing ACAPs, the 767-200 capacity is 216 and 767-300 capacity is 261. Therefore that article supports the idea that the NMA will be the same size as the 767-200 and 767-300. Boeing doesn’t quote single class maximum capacity seat counts in marketing numbers.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:31 am

The 767-200 had higher seatcounts single class & this has nothing to do with Boeing ACAPS or marketing numbers. It's airline numbers.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Dec 27, 2017 1:38 am

keesje wrote:
The 767-200 had higher seatcounts single class & this has nothing to do with Boeing ACAPS or marketing numbers. It's airline numbers.


When Boeing provides seat counts, it is for their standard two class or three class configuration in the standard marketing counts. 220-270 seats are almost identical to the 767-200 and 767-300 seat counts that Boeing publishes of 216 and 261 ( you can find these in the ACAP). You can’t compare these two class seat counts to high density single class max exit limit configurations on the A320 or A321 to support your lie that the article you cited supports your statement:

keesje wrote:
It seems I'm not the only one thinking the NMA will shrink from ~767 size to slightly larger than A320 family
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:04 am

Newbie look at the graph, the 787 goes over 350 seats and the 737 over 200. That's not 2-3 class so obviously Bernstein took another reference. OE standard seatcounts are notorious for supporting their promotional CASM and other per seat figures that have no relation to airline operations. Blindly following those is a choice I've not seen with serious analyst, independent or airlines.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:21 am

keesje wrote:
Newbie look at the graph, the 787 goes over 350 seats and the 737 over 200. That's not 2-3 class so obviously Bernstein took another reference. OE standard seatcounts are notorious for supporting their promotional CASM and other per seat figures that have no relation to airline operations. Blindly following those is a choice I've not seen with serious analyst, independent or airlines.


The center of the 737MAX bubble is 150 seats with the 738 diamond about at 160 seats and 739 diamond at 179 seats, which are the standard 2 class seatcount that Boeing gives. The 787 diamonds on that chart are also at the two class marketing configurations, which are actually quite representative of typical configurations.

The center of the NMA bubble is 245 seats (halfway between 220 and 270). Why can’t you admit your statement was not supported by either the picture from Leeham or the article you cited?
 
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william
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Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:40 am

keesje wrote:
It seems I'm not the only one thinking the NMA will shrink from ~767 size to slightly larger than A320 family. Optimized to also cover the shorter ranges 737 replacement market. Offering a worthy, probably superior A320 family competitor.

Image

http://247wallst.com/aerospace-defense/2017/11/08/whats-going-on-with-boeings-new-midmarket-aircraft/


When all is done, I believe this will be the case. Rjmaz had a good post about the various sizes leading to different ranges.

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