enzo011 wrote:Stitch wrote:It is unfortunate that PDX Lite is no longer updating the A320no and 737MAX sales charts as I would not be surprised if the MAX's sales surge since the launch of the 737-10 (beyond just the model conversions from existing orders) has probably significantly shrunk the respective "sales per day" metric between the two. And considering the MAX has been on offer for less time, I don't think Boeing is at risk of having anything less than a serious NB presence.
Well the current orders per day for the MAX is 1.84 per day (as per Boeing orders up to 19 December and launch from 29 July 2011). From the PDX numbers when it stopped the number of orders per day has stayed roughly the same (1.86 - 1.84). For the NEO the current orders per day is 2.05 (Orders up to 30 November and launch 1 December 2010). The average order per day has gone down (2.54 to 2.05).
The OEMs can only sell what they have to deliver from this point on, if the delivery slots are all taken as we think they are for the next few years. So delivery slots will be as important to sales in the next decade as that will dictate what sales can be made for either model. Airbus and Boeing is currently selling almost exactly their proposed 2019 delivery rate. So we are where we are I suppose with the amount of sales per day and unless one or both increases the production rate again it seems that the major sales campaigns will take a back seat for now and both will sell around 600-700 of either model per year on average.
Nice summary IMO.
Taking your points in reverse order:
Muilenberg was very bullish at the Boeing 3Q results & speculated that 737 production may exceed 60/month. Boeing, at least, appear to be more focused on a sustainable build-up in the delivery rate than obsessing about a putative "Market Share" - which is a moving target anyway. I see no sign of Boeing worrying that it might need to "go early" on the NSA; and from my much less-informed viewpoint, I can't see it either.
2) Market Share:
Unsurprisingly, the NEO daily-rate has reduced a lot and is now 10% or so above the MAX (your figures). It might stay there, producing something like 52.5/47.5 in favour
of the NEO; or possibly reduce further towards equality. Quite unimportant IMO, as both OEMs will be producing like crazy and banking buckets of money for a decade or more.
I would guess that Boeing will in fact move first on it's narrowbody replacement; but that day is still far far away.
(my two cents )