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Polot
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:35 am

mjoelnir wrote:
I do not understand why people talk about needing more range in regards to the A330-800, more capacity or payload, yes, but range?
There is no frame of similar size with more range. If the range of the A330-800 is not enough, the 787 will not do either.

The range thing constantly gets brought up (not just on A.net but in the articles themselves) but I suspect the real reason for all of this is HA is uncomfortable being the only customer for the A338, and still has concerns about the size of the A339/A359 and moving to a wide body fleet heavy on those.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:47 am

Perhaps the proposed 351t A338 is not available for their early agreed delivery date. If all subsequent A338s are 351t, that would leave them uncomfortably with the only 342t A338s.
 
Oykie
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:07 pm

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,

Re : nonstop Hawaii. - Europe flights....
There would be a small, very small, market I guess for Australia-Hawaii-Europe flights for Australians to take advantage of, and probably Europeans as well. I imagine that a tropical island stopover in a stable, attractively priced Pacific paradise on an airline with an arguably good reputation in Australia would be an attractive option for the kangaroo route travellers.
How do I know? My family flew via Hawaii (and Vancouver) to and from Europe years ago by choice. The few days in tropical Hawaii was designed to help us acclimatise back to Australia's summer after a white Christmas in Europe... And it worked a treat!

As for the A330-800neo in Hawaiian's fleet, I was surprised when they chose the A350 in the initial order all those years ago. Hawaiian always just 'seemed' to me to be a perfect match for the Dreamliner and I agree with posts above that all three models of the 787 could be effectively used on Hawaiian's routes. Perhaps the A330neo deposits could be used for additional A321LRs for HA or additional ATRs for Ohana?

Cheers,
Bunumuring.


If HA can get good connections to New Zealand as well, that would also be a good routing for Europeans to NZ.
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Revelation
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:22 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
I would imagine HA has been having second thoughts since the A358 was dropped. Being the only customer for the A338 has to be a very undesirably position. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they turn to the 787 instead.

Depends on what your usage model is. If you tend to keep your aircraft till they are worn out and/or obsolete like HA does then they will be fine with the (edit)A338. It has almost total commonality with the (edit)A339 and ...

RalXWB wrote:
The first 338 is being built currently and people still say that it will never be built... :banghead:

That's par for the course around here.

As another example, the Boeing 737 MAX 7 is also currently being built, yet many people here said that would never happen.
Last edited by Revelation on Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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c933103
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:28 pm

One would have thought they would start talking about it earlier
 
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Polot
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
I would imagine HA has been having second thoughts since the A358 was dropped. Being the only customer for the A338 has to be a very undesirably position. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they turn to the 787 instead.

Depends on what your usage model is. If you tend to keep your aircraft till they are worn out and/or obsolete like HA does then they will be fine with the A358. It has almost total commonality with the A359 and ...

RalXWB wrote:
The first 338 is being built currently and people still say that it will never be built... :banghead:

That's par for the course around here.

As another example, the Boeing 737 MAX 7 is also currently being built, yet many people here said that would never happen.

The problem is likely financial. If HA is the only customer than the A338 than the model will have crappy resale value from the get go. That will be reflected in the financing that HA is able to secure, and limits options like favorable sale-leaseback deals.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:46 pm

Hey guys,
Which other airlines are known to be considering the A330-800neo?
It has been suggested that Asiana may swap its A350-800s to A330-800s, and I believe that Malaysian was still looking at the -800 as well as -900 models of the A330neo.... But who else? A few new A330-800neo orders at Dubai Air Show for example, may restore Hawaiian's confidence if it is indeed waivering.
Cheers,
Bunumuring
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seahawk
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:52 pm

The 787 will look outstanding in their livery.
 
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par13del
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:59 pm

....in another 30 years when they retire their Airbus a/c.
I will be shocked if they pay penalties to get out of the Airbus order, shocked I tell you, shocked. Its all about the money not the a/c, ask UA.
 
airbazar
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:53 pm

par13del wrote:
Follow the money, the airline has deposits with Airbus and will be getting Airbus aircraft. If they had a larger fleet or were considering major growth they could go to Boeing and get a small fleet of 787's to work beside their Airbus fleet whichever the finally get, but I do not believe that much growth is in the cards, so,,,,,talk of a Boeing purchase is supposed to do what, scare Airbus to give them a better price? As for Boeing, why would they offer a deal when they know the airline is to small an financially challenged to cancel its Airbus purchase and pay penalties, has that ever been done?

No one here knows exactly the details of the deal. But we do know that those "deposits" were for the A358 which Airbus decided not to build. We have no idea what kind of investment HA has buried in the A338, how much of the A321neo and A332ceo orders were compensation for the A358 cancelation, etc, and I suspect that neither HA nor AB are willing to make that information 100% public. Personally I don't see Airbus wanting to make a big fuss if HA chooses to walk away from the A330NEO. They'd be the ones who failed to deliver a product, not once but twice and in the process they've gained a new A320 series customer.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:56 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Only reason I can see for Hawaiian going to the 787 is because they both see a use for all three models in the fleet and because they want to start non-stop services to Europe.

Why would Hawaiian want to fly to Europe? I believe the question "Why no direct flights from Europe to Hawaii?" is asked on a regular basis on this forum. And the answer is always the same. Low yields and similar beach destinations much closer to home.

Or is Hawaii - Europe a completely different market than Europe - Hawaii?

Can we please not re-hash this on this thread? Do a search. There a new thread on this topic at least once a month.
HA has stated all along that they want to fly to Europe. Lets leave it at that.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:12 pm

I did a search. But apparently not a good one. I didn't know Hawaiian wants to fly to Europe. I do know there are regular topics about why no airline operates from Europe to Hawaii. But maybe the business case is completely different going the other way. I don't know. I will try another search.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:12 pm

airbazar wrote:
They'd be the ones who failed to deliver a product, not once but twice and in the process they've gained a new A320 series customer.

When was the second time they failed to deliver?

I think Airbus won't be too concerned about any cancellation for the A338. It is a very low cost development for both Airbus and RR because it is just a derivative of existing products. The A338/A339 are built on the same line. Military and freighter versions - if and when they are launched.

Airbus has more pressing problems with ramping up the A320Neo and A350 production and won't lose too much sleep over the A338's sales for the moment.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:14 pm

seahawk wrote:
The 787 will look outstanding in their livery.

It will look outstanding on the Airbus aircraft as well.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:34 pm

DeSpringbokke wrote:
A few questions more knowledgeable posters may chime in on. HAL operates the A330-200s with RR Trent 700 engines. The 787-9, which would probably be the aircraft HAL would order should the A330-800 NEO order be canned, is powered by RR Trent 1000 engines. How much commonality is there between the engines as compared to say the Trent 700s and the Trent XWB or the Trent 700s and the Trent 7000s?

Many who have commented on this topic have said its the A330-800 NEO or bust for HAL as its too expensive for HAL to operate the 787-9, in addition to their A330-200 fleet. In hindsight, it may have been better had HAL ordered the 787-8/9/10 and leased used 767-300ERs to conduct their fleet expansion before the 787-8s arrived.

If they get 787s with Rollers they'll almost certainly be getting the 1000-TEN which is a 1000 with XWB tech. The 7000 is a bleed air version of the 1000-TEN.

Theres far far more commonality between a A332ceo and A338neo than an A332ceo and 787. Having so many relatively new A332s, Boeing would have to give an incredible deal for them to change from the A338 and A will no doubt be happy to respond. And with A321s coming keeping a common pilot pool for a relatively small airline must be very appealing.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:56 pm

In hindsight, I think they should have gone for the A359, and that's still where I think they will end.
 
DeSpringbokke
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:18 pm

trex8 wrote:
DeSpringbokke wrote:
A few questions more knowledgeable posters may chime in on. HAL operates the A330-200s with RR Trent 700 engines. The 787-9, which would probably be the aircraft HAL would order should the A330-800 NEO order be canned, is powered by RR Trent 1000 engines. How much commonality is there between the engines as compared to say the Trent 700s and the Trent XWB or the Trent 700s and the Trent 7000s?

Many who have commented on this topic have said its the A330-800 NEO or bust for HAL as its too expensive for HAL to operate the 787-9, in addition to their A330-200 fleet. In hindsight, it may have been better had HAL ordered the 787-8/9/10 and leased used 767-300ERs to conduct their fleet expansion before the 787-8s arrived.

If they get 787s with Rollers they'll almost certainly be getting the 1000-TEN which is a 1000 with XWB tech. The 7000 is a bleed air version of the 1000-TEN.

Theres far far more commonality between a A332ceo and A338neo than an A332ceo and 787. Having so many relatively new A332s, Boeing would have to give an incredible deal for them to change from the A338 and A will no doubt be happy to respond. And with A321s coming keeping a common pilot pool for a relatively small airline must be very appealing.


What are the differences between the Trent 7000 and the 1000-TEN? Boeing did offer Air Tahiti Nui a sweet deal for four 787-9s, including paying for pilot training, which was surprising since its a French government-owned company and they already had A340-300s in their fleet. These comments sound more like a negotiating tactic although it may be problematic if Airbus can't sell the A330-800 NEO. The reason HAL originally ordered the A350-800 was for Hawai'i-Europe and I believe Airbus guaranteed the A330-800 NEO would still have the range. Given Airbus's specifications for the aircraft and HAL's assuming HAL would use the 278 seat configuration as on the A330-200, the aircraft should be able to do HNL-LHR without a major penalty.

With the 251 tonne A330-900 NEO and the 797 both coming closer to reality, the odds of another buyer for the A330-800 NEO aren't great. The 251 tonne A330-900 NEO most likely will lack the range for HNL-Europe. While the A330-800 NEO does a future as a military/freighter aircraft when the time comes to replace the A330-200s, the commercial market is as good as dead. All this being said is probably the reason why HAL might be having second thoughts. As the 787 backlog decreases and Boeing becoming more opportunistic in 787 sales. The 787-9 might be HAL's best option for HNL-Europe however would it be worth the cost?
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:29 pm

precure787 wrote:
The A330-800NEO would be canceled as with the A350-800XWB
Hawaiian Airlines and Asiana Airlines, both respective orders of these aircraft, have considered removing these aircraft as they're not economically viable for both Airbus and the pax traffic.



OA940 wrote:
I always thought the 787 was a better fit for HA than the neo. Then again this means that the 338 will be unplugged and killed. A combo of the 788 and 789 would be the best, and the latter could fly to Europe non-stop, but if they could find a market for the 78K that would be amazing!


Except the first A338 (MSN 1888) is already in pre-assembly....
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:37 pm

DeSpringbokke wrote:
If they get 787s with Rollers they'll almost certainly be getting the 1000-TEN which is a 1000 with XWB tech. The 7000 is a bleed air version of the 1000-TEN.


What are the differences between the Trent 7000 and the 1000-TEN?[/quote]

As mentioned in the quote, the T7000 IS the 1000-TEN. The T7000 just has the bleed system from the T-XWB added on.
The 1000-TEN is bleedless.
 
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:39 pm

Frankly the article doesn't really add much news to the topic we discussed two months ago.

Hawaiian is said to have launched a competition between the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350-900

Clearly Leeham was well informed.
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:27 pm

Said article also notes HA can cancel the A330-800 so they may not be required to take the frame currently under assembly. Of course, Airbus would prefer to not build a white-tail, but they need to certify the model so...
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:03 am

I may be called a fanboy for saying it, but I think the 787 has a good chance at getting an order from Hawaiian. Even though they operate A330s now I think the 787 is a better option for them than being the only A338 operator. No other solvent airline has ordered that plane in three years, so that must mean something.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:08 am

DeSpringbokke wrote:
As the 787 backlog decreases and Boeing becoming more opportunistic in 787 sales. The 787-9 might be HAL's best option for HNL-Europe however would it be worth the cost?

It is ironic, isn't it - the 787-9 plays in the same ballpark at the A350-900? Had Hawaiian switched from the A350-800 to A350-900 at the time Airbus cancelled the A350-800, they might have gotten delivery of the new A350-900 by now. Lets hope that their decision making process is better tuned this time round!
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:24 am

flee wrote:
DeSpringbokke wrote:
As the 787 backlog decreases and Boeing becoming more opportunistic in 787 sales. The 787-9 might be HAL's best option for HNL-Europe however would it be worth the cost?

It is ironic, isn't it - the 787-9 plays in the same ballpark at the A350-900? Had Hawaiian switched from the A350-800 to A350-900 at the time Airbus cancelled the A350-800, they might have gotten delivery of the new A350-900 by now. Lets hope that their decision making process is better tuned this time round!


The A350-900 is probably too large for what HAL is looking at in regards to HNL-Europe. Even the 787-9 is bit big for HAL's needs but it may have to do. Its an unfortunate situation for HAL. My guess is if there is no other A330-800 NEO order soon, they convert the orders to A350-900s. While a rather big aircraft for HNL-Europe, the 280 tonne A350-900 with a rather dense configuration won't have problems operating HNL-Europe. HAL may even launch a W product should they choose to switch orders to this aircraft.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:43 am

flee wrote:
DeSpringbokke wrote:
As the 787 backlog decreases and Boeing becoming more opportunistic in 787 sales. The 787-9 might be HAL's best option for HNL-Europe however would it be worth the cost?

It is ironic, isn't it - the 787-9 plays in the same ballpark at the A350-900? Had Hawaiian switched from the A350-800 to A350-900 at the time Airbus cancelled the A350-800, they might have gotten delivery of the new A350-900 by now. Lets hope that their decision making process is better tuned this time round!


Well, they decided on the A350-800. After that, Airbus was probably working them pretty good, first to get them into the A350-900 and, when they wouldn't bite, likely talked up the A330-800 pretty good. If HA had had a crystal ball and been able to see the dearth of orders that frame would be getting, they might not have taken the bait. Leahy is very good at what he does and is praised for it frequently. Give him the credit for selling HA an orphan frame rather than blame HA for Airbus' product potholes.
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:42 am

Here is a thought about the whole Hawaii-Europe nonstop market. If it was so lucrative, than why hasn't Virgin Atlantic with their 789's, or Lufthansa with their 359 already tried to test this market? Unless the airlines I have mentioned (and a few others who have the type of equipment being described in this forum) have all decided to yield first service to Hawaiian, it makes little sense to try and tap into a market that does not predict great yields. Even their A330's, reconfigured into a SQ-345 type arrangement could make the flight currently.

So, somewhere, there is a deal to be made by either A or B to give Hawaiian enough incentive to get a model that may not be perfect for their operations, but works out best for the beancounters. Let the bargaining begin as it seems both A & B are willing to talk to a financially healthy, credit worthy Hawaiian Air.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:07 am

A bit of topic, but In 2014 Norwegian talked openly about wanting to start a nonstop route to Hawaii. It has not materialized, yet. Reason for bringing that up is that at the time the Hawaii Tourism Authority wanted to bring in nonstop flights from Europe. If the tourism authority has not changed their opinion, I am sure they are pushing Hawaiian airlines into the same thinking as well?

Here is a new article discussing nonstop flights from Europe, back in 2014:

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/new ... light.html
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:00 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
I may be called a fanboy for saying it, but I think the 787 has a good chance at getting an order from Hawaiian. Even though they operate A330s now I think the 787 is a better option for them than being the only A338 operator. No other solvent airline has ordered that plane in three years, so that must mean something.


Absolutely. You do not want to be the only airline to fly a dead horse. This catches up to you whenever you need to adjust your fleet. If you need to shrink, nobody wants to buy or lease your frames, if you want to grow quickly no frames are on the market.
 
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hotelbravo
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:32 am

seahawk wrote:
Absolutely. You do not want to be the only airline to fly a dead horse. This catches up to you whenever you need to adjust your fleet. If you need to shrink, nobody wants to buy or lease your frames, if you want to grow quickly no frames are on the market.


True, but 6 frames is a small number to want to shrink from, and I'm sure Airbus told them it would be easier to expand quickly with a 338 top-up order than with the 787, which would seem fair?
 
RalXWB
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:57 am

351t? I guess you mean 251t...

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Perhaps the proposed 351t A338 is not available for their early agreed delivery date. If all subsequent A338s are 351t, that would leave them uncomfortably with the only 342t A338s.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:00 am

Why can't they make up their mind? What would a 787 bring over the A338 or A339? Range can't be a problem and yes the 787 will probably be better if they want to fly truly want to fly 5.000nm plus.

The first metal has been cut for the A338. So I guess that Airbus will be less than enthusiastic by canceling this order.
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:21 am

hotelbravo wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Absolutely. You do not want to be the only airline to fly a dead horse. This catches up to you whenever you need to adjust your fleet. If you need to shrink, nobody wants to buy or lease your frames, if you want to grow quickly no frames are on the market.


True, but 6 frames is a small number to want to shrink from, and I'm sure Airbus told them it would be easier to expand quickly with a 338 top-up order than with the 787, which would seem fair?


If you want to replace those A338 with A339, the resale value would still be bad and you have no guarantee on how long Airbus will offer the A338. The 787 has much more flexibility with the 3 family members and a much bigger order book. On the other hand they will have gotten a very good deal for the A338 and Airbus won´t let them off the hook easily considering that the first metal for the A338 has already been cut.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:00 am

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,

As for the A330-800neo in Hawaiian's fleet, I was surprised when they chose the A350 in the initial order all those years ago. Hawaiian always just 'seemed' to me to be a perfect match for the Dreamliner and I agree with posts above that all three models of the 787 could be effectively used on Hawaiian's routes. Perhaps the A330neo deposits could be used for additional A321LRs for HA or additional ATRs for Ohana?

Cheers,
Bunumuring.


Did the performance of the current A-350's currently flying prove to be better or worse than predicted by Airbus? I'm curious also by HA's decision to buy the A-358, but I am sure HA did their homework before buying, they are cautious & haven't placed large orders.

I think HA was already looking at over water, narrow body aircraft & Airbus was likely the right choice at the time it was placed. Now their 358 order was cancelled, HA turned down the 359 for the larger size & instead was persuaded by Airbus to put it's faith in the 330neo programme.

I am positive the A-321 is the right aircraft for HA & their west coast operations, to more easily compete with AS, UA, AA & DL to the outer islands. I am unconvinced that the 330neo is the right match for HA, I think a mix of 788 & 789 would suit better. The 788/789 are flying the longest routes on the planet, I'm quite sure HNL-SIN or HNL-LHR is in the range of either capable aircraft.

Unfortunately when it does come time to replace their awesomely capable 717 fleet, neither Boeing or Airbus will have what they need & HA can't use the leverage of a future impending order. As HA has been Airbus friendly lately, I'd be rather surprised if HA went to Boeing.

As I've no knowledge of what the contracts between Airbus & HAL, I can only assume that after Airbus dropped HA's original preferred aircraft, HA does likely enjoy some favorable terms that are not present in an average contract of this nature. Possibly some wiggle room if these planes aren't a good fit, but before delivery.
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:28 pm

flee wrote:
airbazar wrote:
They'd be the ones who failed to deliver a product, not once but twice and in the process they've gained a new A320 series customer.

When was the second time they failed to deliver?

That was hypothetically speaking, in the event that Airbus reach a deal with HA to not have to build the A338. At the end of the day, Airbus has gained new customer, even if they don't deliver the A338.
Slug71 wrote:
Except the first A338 (MSN 1888) is already in pre-assembly....

That's marketing speak for "we're building parts that can be used on both A338 and A339".
Dutchy wrote:
Why can't they make up their mind?

Airbus is the one that can't make up their mind. HA ordered the A358.
 
cathay747
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:30 pm

Oh lord...get ready for the next round of endless threads being started about "Why no nonstop from [insert city or region] to HNL/Hawaii?"
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:43 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Why can't they make up their mind? What would a 787 bring over the A338 or A339? Range can't be a problem and yes the 787 will probably be better if they want to fly truly want to fly 5.000nm plus.

The first metal has been cut for the A338. So I guess that Airbus will be less than enthusiastic by canceling this order.


Again, Hawaiian DID make up their mind. They chose the A358. Airbus ended up not building it and convinced HA to get the A338. Now that the A338 isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, HA is rethinking their options. Had Airbus built the A358, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Had Airbus succeeded in selling larger numbers of A338s (to date), we likely wouldn't be having this conversation.

FWIW, I think the A330neo is probably a very good option for HA.
-Dave
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:47 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Why can't they make up their mind? What would a 787 bring over the A338 or A339? Range can't be a problem and yes the 787 will probably be better if they want to fly truly want to fly 5.000nm plus.

The first metal has been cut for the A338. So I guess that Airbus will be less than enthusiastic by canceling this order.


Again, Hawaiian DID make up their mind. They chose the A358. Airbus ended up not building it and convinced HA to get the A338. Now that the A338 isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, HA is rethinking their options. Had Airbus built the A358, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Had Airbus succeeded in selling larger numbers of A338s (to date), we likely wouldn't be having this conversation.

FWIW, I think the A330neo is probably a very good option for HA.


ok, true about the A358 of course, but now it is up to Hawaiian, Airbus is building it this time ;)

But it seems that this order has been contemplated a number of times.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:15 pm

Dutchy wrote:
But it seems that this order has been contemplated a number of times.


From what I have heard about HA's operations and traffic, the A350-800 would have been a fantastic choice for them as an A330-200 replacement: 1400nm more range, 30 more seats and on their existing routes, upwards of 23% lower fuel burn per seat.

The A330-800 gets them the fuel burn reduction (though likely more in the high-teens), but with no extra capacity and around 1000nm less range. Looking at Airbus' PR charts, the A330-800 can get passengers and bags to HNL from Europe, but perhaps not much revenue cargo. The A350-800, on the other hand, both had two more LD3 positions (enough to take the twin bags of those 30 passengers) and could have used the empty ones for revenue cargo thanks to it's stronger payload-range curve.

While the 787-9 doesn't have the range the A350-800 did, it does have the extra room (and then some) both on the passenger deck and (especially) in the hold. Payload-range is probably a wash between them (the 787-9 looks like it should fly a bit farther with a bit more payload than an A330-800), but even if cargo revenue is not much more, passenger revenue will be and the 787-9 has plenty more hold space so if we're looking at low-weight perishables... *shrug*
 
Prost
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:37 pm

It seems the 787-8 size wise would be good for HA, but Boeing chose not optimize the -8 to -9 standards. Is this a decision Boeing is likely to revisit?
 
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Slug71
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:49 pm

It will be interesting to see how Dubai plays out in terms of orders. If the NEO doesn't fetch any big orders, I'm no doubt in the minority with this, but I think the A358 may well make a come back in the the near future. There's now a number of improvements from the A359 and A35K that can also be implemented too.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:26 pm

Dutchy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Why can't they make up their mind? What would a 787 bring over the A338 or A339? Range can't be a problem and yes the 787 will probably be better if they want to fly truly want to fly 5.000nm plus.

The first metal has been cut for the A338. So I guess that Airbus will be less than enthusiastic by canceling this order.


Again, Hawaiian DID make up their mind. They chose the A358. Airbus ended up not building it and convinced HA to get the A338. Now that the A338 isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, HA is rethinking their options. Had Airbus built the A358, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Had Airbus succeeded in selling larger numbers of A338s (to date), we likely wouldn't be having this conversation.

FWIW, I think the A330neo is probably a very good option for HA.


ok, true about the A358 of course, but now it is up to Hawaiian, Airbus is building it this time ;)

But it seems that this order has been contemplated a number of times.


Sure, but the point I'm making is that they are building something that so far nobody seems to want. Hawaiian probably needs to decide if they want an orphan(-ish) frame to finance, operate, and eventually dispose of, or if they'd prefer something more marketable? That's up to them to decide, but if they have options, why not explore them?
-Dave
 
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Stitch
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:52 pm

Prost wrote:
It seems the 787-8 size wise would be good for HA, but Boeing chose not optimize the -8 to -9 standards. Is this a decision Boeing is likely to revisit?


I'm guessing no as I expect the market for 787-8 frames will become less and less over time. As with most stretches, the 787-9 likely offers similar trip costs so the extra seats become extra revenue if sold, but are not much of a penalty if they do not. This is also probably a major contributing factor to the lack of orders for the A330-800: the A330-200 and 787-8 have already absorbed that market and the A330-900 can perform the role as effectively as the A330-800 in all but the edge cases where you need 12-15 hour range. And at that point, the 787-9 and A350-900 offer far better revenue potential which is probably important considering the lower weekly/monthly/annual utilization.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:33 pm

Prost wrote:
It seems the 787-8 size wise would be good for HA, but Boeing chose not optimize the -8 to -9 standards. Is this a decision Boeing is likely to revisit?


787-8 fuel burn numbers compared to A330-800 estimates that I have seen show the 787-8 having a considerable fuel burn advantage (I have seen numbers in the range of 4-7% on longer missions, but those are just marketing estimate figures, so they can't be fully trusted). Boeing is still selling the occasional 787-8 and Airbus isn't selling any A338s, so I don't see a big reason to invest in improvements for that airplane.
 
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:38 pm

Stitch wrote:
Prost wrote:
It seems the 787-8 size wise would be good for HA, but Boeing chose not optimize the -8 to -9 standards. Is this a decision Boeing is likely to revisit?


I'm guessing no as I expect the market for 787-8 frames will become less and less over time. As with most stretches, the 787-9 likely offers similar trip costs so the extra seats become extra revenue if sold, but are not much of a penalty if they do not. This is also probably a major contributing factor to the lack of orders for the A330-800: the A330-200 and 787-8 have already absorbed that market and the A330-900 can perform the role as effectively as the A330-800 in all but the edge cases where you need 12-15 hour range. And at that point, the 787-9 and A350-900 offer far better revenue potential which is probably important considering the lower weekly/monthly/annual utilization.


The 787-9 trip costs are higher than the 787-8. The 787-8 is a fairly optimized airframe. For comparisons sake the 787-8 has an OEW that is 20,000lbs less than the 787-9. The A330-200 OEW is only 2,000lbs less than the A330-300, and the gap is expected to be similar for the A330neo. The A332 and A333 trip costs are very similar with the smaller airplane being bought for range. That is quite different in the 787 since the smaller frame is significantly lighter and has less range.
 
trex8
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:52 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Prost wrote:
It seems the 787-8 size wise would be good for HA, but Boeing chose not optimize the -8 to -9 standards. Is this a decision Boeing is likely to revisit?


I'm guessing no as I expect the market for 787-8 frames will become less and less over time. As with most stretches, the 787-9 likely offers similar trip costs so the extra seats become extra revenue if sold, but are not much of a penalty if they do not. This is also probably a major contributing factor to the lack of orders for the A330-800: the A330-200 and 787-8 have already absorbed that market and the A330-900 can perform the role as effectively as the A330-800 in all but the edge cases where you need 12-15 hour range. And at that point, the 787-9 and A350-900 offer far better revenue potential which is probably important considering the lower weekly/monthly/annual utilization.


The 787-9 trip costs are higher than the 787-8. The 787-8 is a fairly optimized airframe. For comparisons sake the 787-8 has an OEW that is 20,000lbs less than the 787-9. The A330-200 OEW is only 2,000lbs less than the A330-300, and the gap is expected to be similar for the A330neo. The A332 and A333 trip costs are very similar with the smaller airplane being bought for range. That is quite different in the 787 since the smaller frame is significantly lighter and has less range.

17 feet extra fuselage only weighs 2000lb more??? That cant be correct. Airbus should be subcontracted by every otherOEM to do their stretches!
According to this its more like 10000lbs+ . http://www.team.aero/images/aviation_da ... e_A330.pdf
 
AWACSooner
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:02 pm

The realistic part of me thinks this is a negotiating ploy towards Airbus.

The emotional part of me thinks "oh please, oh please, oh please order the 787!"
 
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Stitch
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:21 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
The 787-9 trip costs are higher than the 787-8.


Of course they are literally higher, but not significantly so. A 787-9 will seat 20% more people (in the same OEM configuration), but a 787-9's trip costs are not 20% higher, as well. They are a fair bit less than that so the marginal cost of operating a 787-9 versus a 787-8 on a route with consistently high load-factors could pencil out better due to not overbooking / denying sales due to lack of available seats.


AWACSooner wrote:
The realistic part of me thinks this is a negotiating ploy towards Airbus.


What more leverage does HA need? When Airbus (effectively) cancelled the A350-800, HA could have walked away right there and ordered the 787. Instead, they ordered more A330-200s and launched the A330-800. I expect they received some exceptionally good pricing from Airbus to do so and Leeham.net says they had an Exit Clause that allowed them to walk-away from the A330-800 order. So I don't see this as a ploy by HA to try and get Airbus to shave a few million more off the per-frame contract price.

A number of folks have brought up possible financial concerns with being the only operator of a fleet that consists of eight planes. If the "walk-away clause" actually exists, it might be tied to the number of sales for the type. The A350-800 had some 100 orders at the time of her suspension and HA may have set a clause for a minimum number of those orders being converted to the A330-800 when they renegotiated the contract. As history tells us, all but Asiana's were either cancelled outright or converted to the A330-900 or A350-900 / A350-1000 and Asiana will eventually do the same (my guess is A330-900s). Further evidence to suggest this possible scenario is Leeham.net's report that Airbus has been talking to American about converting their A350-900 order to the A330-800 as a 767-300ER replacement. Of course, this could just be Airbus trying to keep American from outright cancelling their A350 order and/or from buying more 787s, but an order for two dozen A330-800s would be a real shot in the arm for the program with the potential of another dozen or two more down the road. And AA with 24-36 of them would probably allow HA to leverage better financing for the type.
Last edited by Stitch on Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Buffalomatt1027
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:28 pm

The 787-8 would be a very interesting plane for HA .... could create a ton of Direct flight destinations from all over the world due to how far the 787 can fly.

Maybe more US direct flights from medium size airports or medium size airports from other world destinations.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Hawaiian Airlines having second thoughts on A330neos, could order 787's instead

Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:29 pm

trex8 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Stitch wrote:

I'm guessing no as I expect the market for 787-8 frames will become less and less over time. As with most stretches, the 787-9 likely offers similar trip costs so the extra seats become extra revenue if sold, but are not much of a penalty if they do not. This is also probably a major contributing factor to the lack of orders for the A330-800: the A330-200 and 787-8 have already absorbed that market and the A330-900 can perform the role as effectively as the A330-800 in all but the edge cases where you need 12-15 hour range. And at that point, the 787-9 and A350-900 offer far better revenue potential which is probably important considering the lower weekly/monthly/annual utilization.


The 787-9 trip costs are higher than the 787-8. The 787-8 is a fairly optimized airframe. For comparisons sake the 787-8 has an OEW that is 20,000lbs less than the 787-9. The A330-200 OEW is only 2,000lbs less than the A330-300, and the gap is expected to be similar for the A330neo. The A332 and A333 trip costs are very similar with the smaller airplane being bought for range. That is quite different in the 787 since the smaller frame is significantly lighter and has less range.

17 feet extra fuselage only weighs 2000lb more??? That cant be correct. Airbus should be subcontracted by every otherOEM to do their stretches!
According to this its more like 10000lbs+ . http://www.team.aero/images/aviation_da ... e_A330.pdf


Sorry got my numbers wrong. 10k lbs difference for the A330. 20k lbs difference for the 787.

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