steveAUS
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Austin Texas Thread - 2017

Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:06 pm

(First time posting so apologies if my terminology or formatting is not up to standards!)

So I've been seeing various threads speculating the next service expansion to Austin, but wanted to centralize the discussion here! From what I can find, it looks like these are the next steps people think we might see:
- More TATL routes (AMS/CDG? Expanded FRA on DE? Anything w/ Star Alliance?)
- Beginning of TPAC
- Expended DL presence
- Increased WN service (probably a sure bet)

What do you think comes first? Anything I left off? How will the new nine gates be distributed? Love to hear opinions.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:15 am

There are definitely more possibilities for international service when the time is right. BA seemingly took a huge risk by starting AUS, but the results show that the airport was long overdue for a European flight. The risk now is overexpansion. Norwegian and Condor are solid adds, but I think it's important to ensure that service is sustainable before trying to lure new carriers. BA already upguaged from 788 -> 789 -> 772, and is now apparently going to the 744. That's a lot of capacity from nothing just a few short years ago. I think further expansion from Norwegian is a given, and I could also see LH coming at some point, but I think potential new carriers will be cautious. With multiple carriers in the market now, their success will be diluted. BA are bringing in the 744 presumably to solidify their position.
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:04 pm

Some interesting scheduled flight adds for SxSW 2018 as well - DL operating 4x to AMS, SK 2x to ARN. AUS sees a lot of charter traffic during SxSW and F1 but it’s interesting that these are being added as scheduled flights that anyone can book.

On another note, how is Y4 doing? AM seems to have managed to (finally!) make a success out of AUS-MEX after trying it themselves before and also MX and VW tried and failed, but Y4’s pax numbers on AUS-GDL are pretty low and they’re down to twice a week (and it seems like the cancellation rate is pretty high). But they’re still around—I keep expecting to see them drop the flight but they’re hanging on somehow.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:27 pm

The obvious next destination should be Tokyo IMO. As an Austinite, let me tell you that it is hard to fathom the demand for travel here. And not just low-rent travel, but corporate high yield travel. JAL or ANA are obvious candidates with a 789 or something along those lines. I personally believe the demand is there. I also think that LH can sustain daily service to FRA just like BA does to LHR. Beyond that, I am skeptical...it is possible that EK could take a stab at this market with a 77L but I am not sold that it will work. But all that free money flowing into Austin via VCs is driving up demand for premium travel big time.
 
steveAUS
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:00 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
The obvious next destination should be Tokyo IMO. As an Austinite, let me tell you that it is hard to fathom the demand for travel here. And not just low-rent travel, but corporate high yield travel. JAL or ANA are obvious candidates with a 789 or something along those lines. I personally believe the demand is there.


Agreed on Tokyo. Just seems obvious. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an AUS-NRT 3x/week on a 789 to test the market. While TATL service may need time to sort out its new increase in service, TPAC seems ripe for the picking.
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:29 pm

Speaking of Formula 1, it’s coming up in a couple of weeks. Is there any way to find out what charters are scheduled? There’s usually at least one or two to and from GRU...
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:35 am

Just to clarify for anyone wondering — AUS can absolutely have its own thread. It isn't up to individual users or even moderators to decide which airports, cities, regions, or countries are deserving of their own threads. If a group of users want to discuss area specific topics, we're happy to allow that to happen. We use these types of threads as subforums of sorts, and with AUS in particular receiving increased attention, it's great to have a group of users interested in discussing these developments.

Users not interested in participating have no requirement to participate, so if something constructive cannot be said, then please move on to a thread you do deem "worth it", and allow others to continue their discussion.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
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flymco753
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:53 am

Here is my analysis on what NK could do if they choose to ever open AUS, which IMO is near.

ORD-AUS dep. 7:00am arr. 9:45am 320
AUS-LAS dep. 10:55am arr. 12:00pm 320
LAS-AUS dep. 3:20pm arr. 6:10pm 320
AUS-ORD dep. 7:20pm arr. 10:00pm 320

DTW-AUS dep. 9:00am arr. 11:15am 320
AUS-BWI dep. 12:30pm arr. 4:15pm 320
*some kind of swap could happen at BWI
BWI-AUS dep. 2:55pm arr. 4:50pm 320
AUS-DTW dep. 5:55pm arr. 9:25pm 320
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:17 am

flymco753 wrote:
Here is my analysis on what NK could do if they choose to ever open AUS, which IMO is near.


I’ve wondered why NK hasn’t come in yet. Alliegiant seems to be doing very well.

Another thing I’ve been curious about—F9 was among the original group of carriers who lobbied to be able to move to a reopened South Terminal, but then chose not to. Anyone know why they changed their minds?
 
Gregarious1
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:40 am

khowaga wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Here is my analysis on what NK could do if they choose to ever open AUS, which IMO is near.


I’ve wondered why NK hasn’t come in yet. Alliegiant seems to be doing very well.

Another thing I’ve been curious about—F9 was among the original group of carriers who lobbied to be able to move to a reopened South Terminal, but then chose not to. Anyone know why they changed their minds?
There's another forum out there that has a port insider that posts from time to time. Supposedly there are some politics involved with moving/not moving but rumor is they will be moved to the South terminal at the start of the year.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
 
masonh2479
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:46 am

I'm very excited to see the east pier open, it'll hopefully bring a lot of new flights! I have a feeling Korean Air will come to Austin in the future, they would have a monopoly on any trans pacific market from Austin.
 
jubguy3
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:42 am

masonh2479 wrote:
I'm very excited to see the east pier open, it'll hopefully bring a lot of new flights! I have a feeling Korean Air will come to Austin in the future, they would have a monopoly on any trans pacific market from Austin.


S T O P. Stop. Stop. Stop. I would be okay with this post if it weren't for your Lufthansa thread. There is absolutely no reason KE would want to start AUS... its simply not the right kind of market for them. Very few secondary cities that aren't on the west coast can support TPAC service. AUS is certainly not one of them, seeing as that its geographically disadvantaged and isn't a hub for any airline.

Can your crystal ball tell me what stocks to buy?
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:47 am

jubguy3 wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
I'm very excited to see the east pier open, it'll hopefully bring a lot of new flights! I have a feeling Korean Air will come to Austin in the future, they would have a monopoly on any trans pacific market from Austin.


S T O P. Stop. Stop. Stop. I would be okay with this post if it weren't for your Lufthansa thread. There is absolutely no reason KE would want to start AUS... its simply not the right kind of market for them. Very few secondary cities that aren't on the west coast can support TPAC service. AUS is certainly not one of them, seeing as that its geographically disadvantaged and isn't a hub for any airline.

Can your crystal ball tell me what stocks to buy?


Seoul on KE has been a hypothesized route (emphasis on Seoul) since it's the most transited Asian city from Austin, at 22000 boardings one-way in 2011, much more than Tokyo's 9000, based on this source, however as italicized, it is outdated at six years old, so there's no telling what the numbers are now (actually I think it's out there on some DOT website, I can't find it).

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/ ... n-america/

There's also the presence of Samsung which is probably why the numbers are much higher than traffic to Tokyo. Traffic grew 140.5% between 2003 and 2011, from 9000 to 22000.

Seeing as Delta has expanded to several routes in the past few years to Seattle, Boston, Raleigh, and a temporary/rumored to be regularly scheduled Amsterdam flight, I think a Delta flight to Seoul would be more likely or at least come first before KE or OZ, as part of their expansion here if they didn't prefer connecting Tokyo to Austin in the future.
 
jubguy3
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:37 pm

CarlosSi wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
I'm very excited to see the east pier open, it'll hopefully bring a lot of new flights! I have a feeling Korean Air will come to Austin in the future, they would have a monopoly on any trans pacific market from Austin.


S T O P. Stop. Stop. Stop. I would be okay with this post if it weren't for your Lufthansa thread. There is absolutely no reason KE would want to start AUS... its simply not the right kind of market for them. Very few secondary cities that aren't on the west coast can support TPAC service. AUS is certainly not one of them, seeing as that its geographically disadvantaged and isn't a hub for any airline.

Can your crystal ball tell me what stocks to buy?


Seoul on KE has been a hypothesized route (emphasis on Seoul) since it's the most transited Asian city from Austin, at 22000 boardings one-way in 2011, much more than Tokyo's 9000, based on this source, however as italicized, it is outdated at six years old, so there's no telling what the numbers are now (actually I think it's out there on some DOT website, I can't find it).

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/ ... n-america/

There's also the presence of Samsung which is probably why the numbers are much higher than traffic to Tokyo. Traffic grew 140.5% between 2003 and 2011, from 9000 to 22000.

Seeing as Delta has expanded to several routes in the past few years to Seattle, Boston, Raleigh, and a temporary/rumored to be regularly scheduled Amsterdam flight, I think a Delta flight to Seoul would be more likely or at least come first before KE or OZ, as part of their expansion here if they didn't prefer connecting Tokyo to Austin in the future.


But we would never see it before SLC or MSP.. Both are delta hubs and both see higher PDEW to Korea and asia as a whole. I'd also expect to see Boston before I see AUS... is there always a chance? Yes, but there are questions to be answered before we can ask if AUS can get service to Seoul.
 
masonh2479
Posts: 156
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:59 pm

CarlosSi wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
I'm very excited to see the east pier open, it'll hopefully bring a lot of new flights! I have a feeling Korean Air will come to Austin in the future, they would have a monopoly on any trans pacific market from Austin.


S T O P. Stop. Stop. Stop. I would be okay with this post if it weren't for your Lufthansa thread. There is absolutely no reason KE would want to start AUS... its simply not the right kind of market for them. Very few secondary cities that aren't on the west coast can support TPAC service. AUS is certainly not one of them, seeing as that its geographically disadvantaged and isn't a hub for any airline.

Can your crystal ball tell me what stocks to buy?


Seoul on KE has been a hypothesized route (emphasis on Seoul) since it's the most transited Asian city from Austin, at 22000 boardings one-way in 2011, much more than Tokyo's 9000, based on this source, however as italicized, it is outdated at six years old, so there's no telling what the numbers are now (actually I think it's out there on some DOT website, I can't find it).

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/ ... n-america/

There's also the presence of Samsung which is probably why the numbers are much higher than traffic to Tokyo. Traffic grew 140.5% between 2003 and 2011, from 9000 to 22000.

Seeing as Delta has expanded to several routes in the past few years to Seattle, Boston, Raleigh, and a temporary/rumored to be regularly scheduled Amsterdam flight, I think a Delta flight to Seoul would be more likely or at least come first before KE or OZ, as part of their expansion here if they didn't prefer connecting Tokyo to Austin in the future.

If you don’t have anything nice to say jubguy3, then don’t say anything. This is what I’m talking about, CarlosSi hit it spot on, Samsung has a huge presence in Austin and with the credible rumors that Delta is going to put a lot into Austin and that Korean Air have also been looking at Austin, why can’t I say that they might give Austin a shot in the future. I never said anything about it coming before SLC and MSP, I have no clue why that was brought up. I know you don’t think my sources can be credible but he is a port insider that’s been right about everything he has said so far. Also, to drive this into your head, that thread isn’t mine, I thought I made that clear.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:12 pm

(Just random 2 cents)
I guess my only concern with KE would be the fact that they can't even make IAH work. DFW is down to 4x weekly (although they also codeshare with AA on DFW-ICN, so it's more like 11x weekly). They can try maybe 3x weekly flights, but that may actually be just taking traffic away from DFW-ICN.

Samsung maybe enough for KE at AUS, maybe not. The Korean presence outside of Samsung in AUS is just not that big anyway.
 
masonh2479
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:21 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
(Just random 2 cents)
I guess my only concern with KE would be the fact that they can't even make IAH work. DFW is down to 4x weekly (although they also codeshare with AA on DFW-ICN, so it's more like 11x weekly). They can try maybe 3x weekly flights, but that may actually be just taking traffic away from DFW-ICN.

Samsung maybe enough for KE at AUS, maybe not. The Korean presence outside of Samsung in AUS is just not that big anyway.

Very true, I believe IAH died mostly because of competition that was in the same alliance as United. I also definitely don’t see daily service to begin. Most likely 3x weekly as you said. :)
 
Sooner787
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:43 pm

Of course, is Austin wins the bid for Amazon's HQ2, All bet's are off LOL
 
masonh2479
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:57 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
Of course, is Austin wins the bid for Amazon's HQ2, All bet's are off LOL

Absolutely! Amazon would transform the airport for sure.
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:04 pm

masonh2479 wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Of course, is Austin wins the bid for Amazon's HQ2, All bet's are off LOL

Absolutely! Amazon would transform the airport for sure.


Unfortunately, that bid hinges more on GROUND transportation, which Austin ... doesn't really have.
 
masonh2479
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:12 pm

khowaga wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Of course, is Austin wins the bid for Amazon's HQ2, All bet's are off LOL

Absolutely! Amazon would transform the airport for sure.


Unfortunately, that bid hinges more on GROUND transportation, which Austin ... doesn't really have.

I agree with you on this, Austin does have a step above most cities via its culture, livability, expanding tech, and well known schools. If I were to give a logical guess, I would say Atlanta would get HQ2, not Austin.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:22 pm

khowaga wrote:
Unfortunately, that bid hinges more on GROUND transportation, which Austin ... doesn't really have.

Short of Austin improving their highway system around downtown (the eastern toll bypass doesn't count), and the introduction of light rail of any sort in the city...Austin will have a hard time coping infrastructure-wise with any massive corporate expansion in the downtown area. Look at the expansion in central Texas in recent years...has it really been in the cities themselves? Nope...the area between Austin and San Antonio (San Marcos/New Braunfels) has EXPLODED in population and growth.

If any LCC's were smart, they'd invest in San Marcos airport and turn that into a central Texas hub. Perfect location and still a lot of room for expansion (if they can manage to lengthen the runway a bit).
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:42 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
khowaga wrote:
Unfortunately, that bid hinges more on GROUND transportation, which Austin ... doesn't really have.

Short of Austin improving their highway system around downtown (the eastern toll bypass doesn't count), and the introduction of light rail of any sort in the city...Austin will have a hard time coping infrastructure-wise with any massive corporate expansion in the downtown area. Look at the expansion in central Texas in recent years...has it really been in the cities themselves? Nope...the area between Austin and San Antonio (San Marcos/New Braunfels) has EXPLODED in population and growth.

If any LCC's were smart, they'd invest in San Marcos airport and turn that into a central Texas hub. Perfect location and still a lot of room for expansion (if they can manage to lengthen the runway a bit).


It would help if we had a real public transportation system (one of the things Amazon said they were looking for). For a town that claims to be as environmentally friendly as Austin does, it's impossible to get anywhere if you don't have a car - or are fortunate enough (read: wealthy enough) to live in one of the few areas of town reasonably served by Cap Metro.

If Amazon chose Austin, they almost certainly wouldn't build downtown (I've heard through contacts at the city that the former Motorola campus was one of the proposed sites). But, unfortunately, the painful fact is that at this point building a reasonable light rail/express bus system would involve years of construction and detoured traffic, and I don't know if the City of Austin (or its voters) would have the guts to propose such a thing, let alone try to implement it.

I think the metro corridor is well served with commercial air stations between SAT, AUS, and GRK. The issue isn't getting the air service in - AUS itself could handle a lot more traffic, as could SAT (and both terminals could be expanded to add more gates in less time than it would take to build a completely new airport from scratch). The issue is what to do with the passengers once they're actually on the ground. During rush hour it'll take 45-60 minutes to get from AUS to San Marcos or SAT to New Braunfels. That proposed high speed rail link - if it stopped at the airports - would be a huge boon for both.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:50 pm

Would the transportation between KAUS and downtown be PAX only or would there essentially be a massive warehouse/distribution center down there as well? Couldn't a light rail connecting the two fix the pax side of things?
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:51 pm

CarlosSi wrote:
Would the transportation between KAUS and downtown be PAX only or would there essentially be a massive warehouse/distribution center down there as well? Couldn't a light rail connecting the two fix the pax side of things?


Definitely, but none of the proposals have ever extended to the airport! I don’t honestly know what they’re thinking. Light rail from ABIA to downtown to UT (and then onward) would make so much sense, but instead they wanted a line from Highland Mall to North Riverside...because of all 4 people that commute between them (?!)
 
masonh2479
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:58 pm

khowaga wrote:
CarlosSi wrote:
Would the transportation between KAUS and downtown be PAX only or would there essentially be a massive warehouse/distribution center down there as well? Couldn't a light rail connecting the two fix the pax side of things?


Definitely, but none of the proposals have ever extended to the airport! I don’t honestly know what they’re thinking. Light rail from ABIA to downtown to UT (and then onward) would make so much sense, but instead they wanted a line from Highland Mall to North Riverside...because of all 4 people that commute between them (?!)

IIFC the metro rail green line might run from downtown to the airport. Problem is, it’s only proposed, and has been that way for a while. What baffles me is how slow the city leaders are at implementing new transit options. Every idea gets rejected, seems like they want to continue to sit in traffic all day everyday. It was bad when I left and it’s only gotten worse since. Ground transportation is our Achilles heel.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:38 pm

khowaga wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Here is my analysis on what NK could do if they choose to ever open AUS, which IMO is near.


I’ve wondered why NK hasn’t come in yet. Alliegiant seems to be doing very well.

Another thing I’ve been curious about—F9 was among the original group of carriers who lobbied to be able to move to a reopened South Terminal, but then chose not to. Anyone know why they changed their minds?


Could it be G4's growth at AUS is keeping NK from pulling the trigger? G4 considers it a hub. I think NK will come sooner or later. AUS really needs to be adding some gate space.
 
masonh2479
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:43 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Here is my analysis on what NK could do if they choose to ever open AUS, which IMO is near.


I’ve wondered why NK hasn’t come in yet. Alliegiant seems to be doing very well.

Another thing I’ve been curious about—F9 was among the original group of carriers who lobbied to be able to move to a reopened South Terminal, but then chose not to. Anyone know why they changed their minds?


Could it be G4's growth at AUS is keeping NK from pulling the trigger? G4 considers it a hub. I think NK will come sooner or later. AUS really needs to be adding some gate space.

Allegiant and Frontier have most likely delayed Spirit’s arrival. You are correct, the 9 new gates can’t come fast enough.
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:44 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Here is my analysis on what NK could do if they choose to ever open AUS, which IMO is near.


I’ve wondered why NK hasn’t come in yet. Alliegiant seems to be doing very well.

Another thing I’ve been curious about—F9 was among the original group of carriers who lobbied to be able to move to a reopened South Terminal, but then chose not to. Anyone know why they changed their minds?


Could it be G4's growth at AUS is keeping NK from pulling the trigger? G4 considers it a hub. I think NK will come sooner or later. AUS really needs to be adding some gate space.


G4 uses the south terminal, which is virtually empty. There are some days there’s only a handful of flights out of it, if that many. Most of G4s services are less than daily.

As someone else pointed out, Phase 2 expansion will trigger right about the time the current expansion project is finished, which would take the current terminal up to 55 gates (I think?).
 
masonh2479
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:46 pm

khowaga wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
khowaga wrote:

I’ve wondered why NK hasn’t come in yet. Alliegiant seems to be doing very well.

Another thing I’ve been curious about—F9 was among the original group of carriers who lobbied to be able to move to a reopened South Terminal, but then chose not to. Anyone know why they changed their minds?


Could it be G4's growth at AUS is keeping NK from pulling the trigger? G4 considers it a hub. I think NK will come sooner or later. AUS really needs to be adding some gate space.


G4 uses the south terminal, which is virtually empty. There are some days there’s only a handful of flights out of it, if that many. Most of G4s services are less than daily.

As someone else pointed out, Phase 2 expansion will trigger right about the time the current expansion project is finished, which would take the current terminal up to 55 gates (I think?).

The south terminal definetly can’t handle 3 flights at a time, I know you never said it could but it had 3 gates and too little interior space. Per rumor, a 28-60 gate expansion is set after the east pier. Frontier should be moving to the south terminal early next year per source.
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:00 pm

masonh2479 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

Could it be G4's growth at AUS is keeping NK from pulling the trigger? G4 considers it a hub. I think NK will come sooner or later. AUS really needs to be adding some gate space.


G4 uses the south terminal, which is virtually empty. There are some days there’s only a handful of flights out of it, if that many. Most of G4s services are less than daily.

As someone else pointed out, Phase 2 expansion will trigger right about the time the current expansion project is finished, which would take the current terminal up to 55 gates (I think?).

The south terminal definetly can’t handle 3 flights at a time, I know you never said it could but it had 3 gates and too little interior space. Per rumor, a 28-60 gate expansion is set after the east pier. Frontier should be moving to the south terminal early next year per source.


I know space is a bit cramped over there, but there are some days I’m not sure it handles any flights at all. Frontier’s move would definitely change that, though.

I think it’s a 28 gate expansion that would bring the total number of gates to 60
 
masonh2479
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Re: Austin Thread 2017

Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:06 pm

khowaga wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
khowaga wrote:

G4 uses the south terminal, which is virtually empty. There are some days there’s only a handful of flights out of it, if that many. Most of G4s services are less than daily.

As someone else pointed out, Phase 2 expansion will trigger right about the time the current expansion project is finished, which would take the current terminal up to 55 gates (I think?).

The south terminal definetly can’t handle 3 flights at a time, I know you never said it could but it had 3 gates and too little interior space. Per rumor, a 28-60 gate expansion is set after the east pier. Frontier should be moving to the south terminal early next year per source.


I know space is a bit cramped over there, but there are some days I’m not sure it handles any flights at all. Frontier’s move would definitely change that, though.

I think it’s a 28 gate expansion that would bring the total number of gates to 60

That sounds more like it. I had a hard time believing we would get a 60 gate expansion.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:11 am

Formula One charters today (to Mexico City):
2X Atlas 747freighters
1X Miami Air 737-800

Did anyone get the registrations?
Most recent aircraft flown: A318 F-GUGQ, A319 F-GRHR, A320ceo D-AIZH, A320neo D-AINE, A330-300 VH-QPD, A350-900 B-LRA, A380-800 D-AIMH, 717 VH-YQW, 737-600 LN-RPA, 737-700 OY-JTY, 737-800 LN-NGA, 767-300 ZK-NCI, 777-300 ZK-OKN, 787-9 VH-ZNA, CS100 HB-JBG
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:02 pm

zkojq wrote:
Formula One charters today (to Mexico City):
2X Atlas 747freighters
1X Miami Air 737-800

Did anyone get the registrations?


Flightaware lists a total of 5x Atlas 744F flights (through this morning), plus an American A321. No reg info, though.
 
khowaga
Posts: 204
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:22 pm

There’s another Atlas 744 in the air right now - N497MC; flightradar24 has last night’s charter (5Y 8704) registration as N496MC.
 
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SaveFerris
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:57 pm

zkojq wrote:
Formula One charters today (to Mexico City):
2X Atlas 747freighters
1X Miami Air 737-800

Did anyone get the registrations?


Not sure about the Miami Air but there were 3 Atlas 747-400s doing the AUS-MEX run:

N445MC
N496MC
N497MC

Both 445 and 496 did multiple flights between AUS and MEX over the past few days.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:16 pm

SaveFerris wrote:
zkojq wrote:
Formula One charters today (to Mexico City):
2X Atlas 747freighters
1X Miami Air 737-800

Did anyone get the registrations?


Not sure about the Miami Air but there were 3 Atlas 747-400s doing the AUS-MEX run:

N445MC
N496MC
N497MC

Both 445 and 496 did multiple flights between AUS and MEX over the past few days.

Thanks! Last year it was SIA 747freighters, I believe.
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khinstorff
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:03 am

What are the chances B6 sets up its mid-continent hub in AUS? Or are they more concentrated about European expansion?
 
Jshank83
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:12 am

khinstorff wrote:
What are the chances B6 sets up its mid-continent hub in AUS? Or are they more concentrated about European expansion?


Since they have a lot of flying in the Northeast wouldn't a hub that far south be kind of out of the way? Not saying it wouldn't work, I just am not sure they would go for it. Not that there are any other locations that stick out as a mid con hub anyways.
 
khinstorff
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:00 am

Jshank83 wrote:
khinstorff wrote:
What are the chances B6 sets up its mid-continent hub in AUS? Or are they more concentrated about European expansion?


Since they have a lot of flying in the Northeast wouldn't a hub that far south be kind of out of the way? Not saying it wouldn't work, I just am not sure they would go for it. Not that there are any other locations that stick out as a mid con hub anyways.


I figure it would be a path of least resistance. ORD, MSP, DEN, and DFW would be a bloodbath. MCI and STL don’t appear to fit the B6 profile. Not sure if they’d have a lot of options.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:14 am

khinstorff wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
khinstorff wrote:
What are the chances B6 sets up its mid-continent hub in AUS? Or are they more concentrated about European expansion?


Since they have a lot of flying in the Northeast wouldn't a hub that far south be kind of out of the way? Not saying it wouldn't work, I just am not sure they would go for it. Not that there are any other locations that stick out as a mid con hub anyways.


I figure it would be a path of least resistance. ORD, MSP, DEN, and DFW would be a bloodbath. MCI and STL don’t appear to fit the B6 profile. Not sure if they’d have a lot of options.


Yea. Those 4 hubs probably wouldn't work. STL is a WN stranglehold and MCI isn't set up to be a hub logistically. Even if they get the vote on their terminal to pass it would be years before it was ready. BNA doesn't have the gates at the moment. I have the feeling they won't have a mid con hub for awhile. They don't do enough Midwest flying to warrant a mid con hub really.
 
khowaga
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:28 pm

khinstorff wrote:
What are the chances B6 sets up its mid-continent hub in AUS? Or are they more concentrated about European expansion?


Years ago I would have thought there was a chance of something like that, but after their initial coast to coast operation they haven’t really expanded their markets from AUS (in fact, they dropped SFO). I’d always kind of hoped they’d add MEX but that was just a pipe dream. I don’t know if they’ve lost interest in AUS or they’re content with their share of the market, but I don’t see much chance for substantial growth on the horizon. :twocents:
 
HeeseokKoo
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:59 pm

khowaga wrote:
khinstorff wrote:
What are the chances B6 sets up its mid-continent hub in AUS? Or are they more concentrated about European expansion?


Years ago I would have thought there was a chance of something like that, but after their initial coast to coast operation they haven’t really expanded their markets from AUS (in fact, they dropped SFO). I’d always kind of hoped they’d add MEX but that was just a pipe dream. I don’t know if they’ve lost interest in AUS or they’re content with their share of the market, but I don’t see much chance for substantial growth on the horizon. :twocents:

I'm with you. B6 used to squeeze 10-11 flights on any day on the single gate (#19). Now it's down to only 6 flights per day. Meanwhile AUS folks got much better options to JFK and BOS while bypassing B6.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:34 pm

khinstorff wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
khinstorff wrote:
What are the chances B6 sets up its mid-continent hub in AUS? Or are they more concentrated about European expansion?


Since they have a lot of flying in the Northeast wouldn't a hub that far south be kind of out of the way? Not saying it wouldn't work, I just am not sure they would go for it. Not that there are any other locations that stick out as a mid con hub anyways.


I figure it would be a path of least resistance. ORD, MSP, DEN, and DFW would be a bloodbath. MCI and STL don’t appear to fit the B6 profile. Not sure if they’d have a lot of options.


If we rewind 3-5 years this conversation would look a lot different, plenty of airports would have had space and WN would be much less of an issue. Unfortunately, B6 has sat on its hands and waited too long to make any serious moves in the middle of the country, AUS, IND, CMH, STL, MCI, MKE, and BNA would have been good options for a middle of the country focus city but it is too late now I believe.
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TWA772LR
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:53 pm

steveAUS wrote:
- More TATL routes (AMS/CDG? Expanded FRA on DE? Anything w/ Star Alliance?)
- Beginning of TPAC
- Expended DL presence
- Increased WN service (probably a sure bet)

What do you think comes first? Anything I left off? How will the new nine gates be distributed? Love to hear opinions.

I don't think we'll see any TATL/TPAC routes from the US3 from AUS before 2025, and DL as their business plan stands at the moment is the most likely. They have been dying to have a Texas hub since the DFW closure and AUS is the best thing outside Houston and Dallas, with SAT becoming a more distant second with each year going by.

I'm hoping ANA comes in first to AUS from the Pacific because I'm biased to Star since I'm a UA fanboy, but it's really anyone's game at this point. KE and JL are both cozy with AA so they are just as likely.

WN will expand, and I'm not sure if Austin could support 2 focus cities in one airport so it will be a battle between WN and/or whichever ULCC and/or DL for top dog in AUS. If I were F9, I'd be growing in AUS like wildfire yesterday because the Austin area is just on fire right now population, economic, and young people-wise. The lower fares of Frontier or Spirit would be a godsend for Austin and Central Texas. I only say F9 should capitalize on it because I like to root for the underdog.

And for my pipe-dream analysis, I'd love to see UA make AUS or SAT a small intra-Texas, p2p focus city only since Houston is so far out of the way to serve that role.
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WN732
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:25 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
khinstorff wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

Since they have a lot of flying in the Northeast wouldn't a hub that far south be kind of out of the way? Not saying it wouldn't work, I just am not sure they would go for it. Not that there are any other locations that stick out as a mid con hub anyways.


I figure it would be a path of least resistance. ORD, MSP, DEN, and DFW would be a bloodbath. MCI and STL don’t appear to fit the B6 profile. Not sure if they’d have a lot of options.


If we rewind 3-5 years this conversation would look a lot different, plenty of airports would have had space and WN would be much less of an issue. Unfortunately, B6 has sat on its hands and waited too long to make any serious moves in the middle of the country, AUS, IND, CMH, STL, MCI, MKE, and BNA would have been good options for a middle of the country focus city but it is too late now I believe.


Well, there's always COS. I'm sure that the city would throw some money at B6
 
khowaga
Posts: 204
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:00 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
steveAUS wrote:
- More TATL routes (AMS/CDG? Expanded FRA on DE? Anything w/ Star Alliance?)
- Beginning of TPAC
- Expended DL presence
- Increased WN service (probably a sure bet)

What do you think comes first? Anything I left off? How will the new nine gates be distributed? Love to hear opinions.


If I were F9, I'd be growing in AUS like wildfire yesterday because the Austin area is just on fire right now population, economic, and young people-wise. The lower fares of Frontier or Spirit would be a godsend for Austin and Central Texas. I only say F9 should capitalize on it because I like to root for the underdog.


Well, F9 did just add a bunch of new routes (CLE, CLT, CVG, CMH, MSY, PHX, RDU, ONT, SJC) although I have to wonder how many of them will last. It kind of seems like their route planners threw a bunch of spaghetti at the wall to see what would stick.
 
NZ321
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:03 pm

To be honest I am surprised that AS / VX or F9 or B6 haven't taken the opportunity already. I would have thought AUS was prime picking now. I guess we shall see in the short term as things are picking up.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:23 pm

I'm hoping ANA comes in first to AUS from the Pacific because I'm biased to Star since I'm a UA fanboy, but it's really anyone's game at this point. KE and JL are both cozy with AA so they are just as likely.


ANA had been fairly conservative when it comes to new TPAC routes. The only more recent "new" destinations they add was to SJC, and even then, it's not a totally new market and probably just supplement the existing SFO flights.

KE can't even make it work at IAH. Yes, there's Samsung at Austin, but otherwise, not much else. Plus all it'll do is hurt the current DFW-ICN flight even more.
JL, well, I still think they have other market that they can make a stab in (for example, SEA or PHL) before AUS. They can always fly to MIA, of course :stirthepot:
 
jplatts
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Re: Austin Texas Thread 2017

Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:27 pm

Will Southwest ever add nonstop service to RDU from AUS? The Research Triangle and Greater Austin are both major hi-tech hubs, and some of the hi-tech companies that have a presence in Greater Austin also have a presence in the Research Triangle. Even though Delta does have a focus city at RDU along with RDU-AUS nonstop service, Southwest Airlines still does have significant market share at RDU. Southwest also does have nonstop service to RDU from DAL and HOU, and Southwest does have nonstop service from AUS to SJC and other hi-tech hubs.

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