https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gship-a380 says:

Airbus SE is working with Emirates, the biggest buyer of its A380 double-decker airliner, on a follow-up deal, which would bring much-needed relief to a program that’s running out of orders as carriers pick smaller aircraft.

The two sides hope to come to terms of an accord by the time of the Dubai Air Show, which takes place later this month, Airbus and Emirates representatives said on Friday in Hamburg, where Emirates took delivery of its 100th A380.

Enders is saying A380 will be in production for the next decade. I wonder if that is just bluster, or if he has the data to support that claim? He's claiming there's other sales leads in the ME and Asia but that's all he says. I suppose if EK makes a big enough commitment to replace existing A380s and others replace some subset of their fleets it can limp along at its current rate for a decade, no?

Plus coming, ladies and gentlemen, extended news next week

:/ kinda wish they would do a A389 stretch but give the state of VLAs, and even WB in general, its probably just throwing money down a drain

Jayafe wrote:

Plus coming, ladies and gentlemen, extended news next week

They desperately need to make some sales, with or without the Plus. Tim Clark did not seem to be impressed by the Plus offerings, but maybe they've grown on him, or maybe his boss is leaning on him to make a deal.

"I hope we will be able to do it" - Emirates Chairman/CEO Sheikh Ahmad about possible A380 order at upcoming Dubai Air Show

I guess there must be a reason why Leahy has postponed his retirement until after the Dubai air show.

I always hoped this could happen, that they could get enough in the interim to keep the line open. If they can keep going to the
point where new engine`s & other developments to the frame come to fruition, this aircraft could see success. It could be "bluster"
but AB know the importance of this aircraft to them beyond 2025 & perhaps earlier in keeping 777x honest, & they know if Emirate`s
do something soon, those others that make this aircraft viable could be tempted themselves. I look forward to what Dubai may provide.

Revelation wrote:

Tim Clark did not seem to be impressed by the Plus offerings,

Of course he was not impressed. Tim Clark wants a NEO thus raised the bar too high. That doesn't mean the Plus offerings wouldn't work for EK.

Right on the heels of EK's 100th A380, HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al Maktoum stated Emirates and Airbus are working toward a new order before the Dubai Air Show Nov. 12

“I hope that we will be able to do it” in time for the biennial air show in Emirates’ hometown, Al Maktoum said to reporters.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gship-a380

KarelXWB wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Tim Clark did not seem to be impressed by the Plus offerings,

Of course he was not impressed. Tim Clark wants a NEO thus raised the bar too high. That doesn't mean the Plus offerings wouldn't work for EK.

His reaction when asked about the Plus was:

“I’m more concerned about continuity of production,” Clark said at a media briefing. “If they came up with what we want at the right price, knowing that we’ll need to retire aircraft fairly soon we would probably take some more. But I don’t want to be left with a pup. I don’t want to be left with aeroplanes that are headed for obsolescence.”

I suppose you can view that as a plea for a NEO, but most view it as a plea for clarity on the future of the product.

And:

Clark also gave a lukewarm response to Airbus’s efforts to make the A380 more attractive to operators by adding as many as 80 new berths to the 550-seat model, saying he won’t be taking up the option of eliminating its ocean-liner staircase or moving to an 11-abreast layout in economy class.

So the only part of the Plus that is attractive to EK is the aero improvements and winglets.

Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -a380-jets

It will "likely" be for 20 according to Leeham.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/11/03/emira ... more-25251

FoxtrotSierra wrote:

Right on the heels of EK's 100th A380, HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al Maktoum stated Emirates and Airbus are working toward a new order before the Dubai Air Show Nov. 12

“I hope that we will be able to do it” in time for the biennial air show in Emirates’ hometown, Al Maktoum said to reporters.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gship-a380

Any chance they'll neo it or is it simply the "plus"?

They still have forty two (42) A380's to be delivered.

They have 150 777X on order.

They have an airport that is constrained.

The only way I can see them ordering more A380's is if they retire aircraft early.

If they do that I am not too sure how they could finance the aircraft in such an environment.

Something has to give here!

scbriml wrote:

It will "likely" be for 20 according to Leeham.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/11/03/emira ... more-25251

Bjorn also suggests:

The very visual new winglets are not likely, as these involve extensive flight testing and re-qualification of the whole aircraft.

Revelation wrote:

So the only part of the Plus that is attractive to EK is the aero improvements and winglets.

Rolls-Royce was also willing to commit to further engine improvements if enough orders come in.

And yes, Emirates will most likely not opt for 11-abreast seating, though could still add additional seats by reconfiguring the entire cabin.

travelhound wrote:

The only way I can see them ordering more A380's is if they retire aircraft early.

Retirement has always been a part of the plan. IIRC they will start doing A380 retirements in 2018 or 2018. I thought the last 25 ordered were to be replacements of the earliest 25 which suggests the fleet stabilizes around 105 frames.

travelhound wrote:

They have 150 777X on order.

Which are scheduled to replace their entire 77W fleet. It's not like they're all for growth.

travelhound wrote:

The only way I can see them ordering more A380's is if they retire aircraft early.

A380s will be retired as they come off lease.

travelhound wrote:

If they do that I am not too sure how they could finance the aircraft in such an environment.

The same way they've financed just about their entire fleet?

Revelation wrote:

travelhound wrote:

The only way I can see them ordering more A380's is if they retire aircraft early.

Retirement has always been a part of the plan. IIRC they will start doing A380 retirements in 2018 or 2018. I thought the last 25 ordered were to be replacements of the earliest 25 which suggests the fleet stabilizes around 105 frames.

The first one will be retired in 2020. Unlike SQ, Emirates leases on a 12-years period. Thus EK will operate some 120 A380s by then and the remaining 25 on order are for retirement.

At the end of the day Emirates needs another 100 A380s just for replacement. I suppose we might see future orders in batches of 20 aircraft or so. This could support a production rate of 10 aircraft per year between 2020 and 2030.

travelhound wrote:

They still have forty two (42) A380's to be delivered.

They have 150 777X on order.

They have an airport that is constrained.

The only way I can see them ordering more A380's is if they retire aircraft early.

If they do that I am not too sure how they could finance the aircraft in such an environment.

Something has to give here!

Summed up my thoughts right here. Unless Emirates is planning for a future at both DWC and DXB (which, IMO, is counterproductive to their strategy of connecting Europe-to-Asia passengers), there is simply not enough space for all these aircraft. EK's bubble is growing larger and larger and I fear that if it keeps doing so, it might just burst.

Currently their fleet is at 236 a/c with 6 (777-300's) to be retired soon and another 208 a/c on order. I can't see them ordering a small number of A380's (EK never does anything small) and, while I'm no business expert at all, I can't see having more aircraft on order than what you currently operate now as a good business plan - especially when you have 15 extra aircraft stored at the moment.

Airbus needs to look elsewhere for someone to support continued A380 production. Catering so heavily to one airline can leave them in a sticky spot if anything happens to that airline...

mikegigs wrote:

travelhound wrote:

They still have forty two (42) A380's to be delivered.

They have 150 777X on order.

They have an airport that is constrained.

The only way I can see them ordering more A380's is if they retire aircraft early.

If they do that I am not too sure how they could finance the aircraft in such an environment.

Something has to give here!

Summed up my thoughts right here. Unless Emirates is planning for a future at both DWC and DXB (which, IMO, is counterproductive to their strategy of connecting Europe-to-Asia passengers), there is [bsimply not enough space for all these aircraft[/b]. EK's bubble is growing larger and larger and I fear that if it keeps doing so, it might just burst.

Currently their fleet is at 236 a/c with 6 (777-300's) to be retired soon and another 208 a/c on order. I can't see them ordering a small number of A380's (EK never does anything small) and, while I'm no business expert at all, I can't see having more aircraft on order than what you currently operate now as a good business plan - especially when you have 15 extra aircraft stored at the moment.

Emirates ordered 150 777X to replace the 150 77W aircraft it will soon operate. Those orders are spread out between 2020 and 2030 anyway.

The A380s to be ordered as most likely for replacement as well.

I suppose Emirates needs additional space only if it orders aircraft for growth, like 787s and/or A350s. Hence the move to DWC in the long term.

mikegigs, having the same amount of aircraft on order as the current fleet indeed isn't that usual but it's not unusual. As someone else already said, these new aircraft will replace the current fleet in phases. It's not like they will retire 50 aircraft at once to replace them with 50 new ones. As you said yourself, EK only places big orders which means that the delivery schedule of these big orders will most likely be similar to their previous big orders so it fits them perfectly.

I do agree with you that Airbus shouldn't put all their eggs in once basket but need to find more airlines to buy the new A380 to launch it.

In any case I'm very interested in seeing how much interest there is in a new generation A380.


A388

A388 wrote:

mikegigs, having the same amount of aircraft on order as the current fleet indeed isn't that usual but it's not unusual. As someone else already said, these new aircraft will replace the current fleet in phases. It's not like they will retire 50 aircraft at once to replace them with 50 new ones. As you said yourself, EK only places big orders which means that the delivery schedule of these big orders will most likely be similar to their previous big orders so it fits them perfectly.

I do agree with you that Airbus shouldn't put all their eggs in once basket but need to find more airlines to buy the new A380 to launch it.

In any case I'm very interested in seeing how much interest there is in a new generation A380.


A388

I don't think we are talking about a new generation A380 though, are we? It seems like EK might just get more of the current A380 with a couple of minor improvements.

Keep in mind that EK's average fleet age is around 6 years and they probably want to keep it below 10. 777Xs will replace the 77W on most routes and some 380s, and EK will order 380+ to replace the rest of their A380s.

Well if Airbus in manufacturing A380's at a rate of 8 per year (which I think is the present rate) then obviously they have to make 80 to keep the line open for a decade.
There are 42 in the present backlog for Emirates (and a few others such as ANA).Leehams 'market intelligence ' states a new order(S?) for between 20-50 A/c.So clearly 80 is very possible (but not profitable).If there are to be 'other' orders -well they have 10 years in which to achieve them.
It would be really useful if anybody had a chart of their 'non Rolls' powered fleet.The ages by year and whether they were bought of leased.Starting with the first one in 2018 I believe.
It would be surprising if they did not go for the revised winglets/retwist (it's all part of the same change) Leeham seemed somewhat negative on that.
Not surprised about them not being so interested in the higher density internal changes.I think the a/c is big enough for them as it is.But an increase is available to them if they want/need it.
Certainly a further pip from Rolls would make them happy.
As stated above they have stated along time ago that their present airport can handle the existing fleet/orders.Nearly all the orders are replacements anyway.Total pax volume can rise (bigger aircraft) but not much growth for additional routes (the 787/350 order).But that seems to have gone quiet again anyway.
I do wonder (in a decades time) whether the A380 fleet won't settle at circa 80-85 all Rolls fleet.Seems to make economic sense.

parapente wrote:

Well if Airbus in manufacturing A380's at a rate of 8 per year (which I think is the present rate) then obviously they have to make 80 to keep the line open for a decade.

Present rate is higher than that, ~12/year. 8/year isn't happening until 2019. I think the present (realistic) production backlog for the A380 is somewhere in the 30s (you have to subtract A380s assembled but not delivered or are going through assembly/final outfitting now from the order backlog).

parapente wrote:

I do wonder (in a decades time) whether the A380 fleet won't settle at circa 80-85 all Rolls fleet.Seems to make economic sense.

I think the original plan was for the fleet to stabilize at 115 (my math above was wrong) with the last 25 of the 140 frames to start the replacement cycle. Now we see more being added, and I would think if the plan was to stabilize at a lower number they'd probably delay making another order. I guess time will tell. I guess the main issue is can EK keep getting reasonable financing on the planes. It seems if they do make this order the answer is yes, which is good news for the program. However Tim Clark still seems to press for more diversity in the order book. I presume that too is to ensure that he keeps getting reasonable financing on the planes.

Revelation wrote:

I think the original plan was for the fleet to stabilize at 115 (my math above was wrong) with the last 25 of the 140 frames to start the replacement cycle. Now we see more being added, and I would think if the plan was to stabilize at a lower number they'd probably delay making another order.

Increasing throughput at their (slot constrained?) hub would be enabled by more A380 ( and less 777 ) ?

The only way to grow at a constrained airport, is to upgauge the equipment. Hoping for a reduction in 777 orders and an increase in A380.

Great news! Especially makes one giggle with the thought of the resident A380 haters here squirming because the damn thing just refuses to fade away.

The Emirates discussions on this board seem to go in cycles, sometimes they have too many aircraft and are failed to doom and other times ordering more A380s is sound logic

Strato2 wrote:

Great news! Especially makes one giggle with the thought of the resident A380 haters here squirming because the damn thing just refuses to fade away.

tone deaf and busy:
http://c.newsnow.co.uk/A/909191834?-303:3665:3
Saj Amad, renowned airline analüst at his best.

Hopefully something happens, but we've heard all this before. Emirates have already said they're not impressed by the Plus and want to see more commitments from other carriers.
They've also said they want a NEO with other improvements or redesigned wings. A NEO just can't happen for obvious reasons.

So it will be interesting to see what comes of this. Hope it happens though.

WIederling wrote:

tone deaf and busy:
http://c.newsnow.co.uk/A/909191834?-303:3665:3
Saj Amad, renowned airline analüst at his best.

Solid people who won’t let reality ruin their opinion...

Jayafe wrote:

WIederling wrote:

tone deaf and busy:
http://c.newsnow.co.uk/A/909191834?-303:3665:3
Saj Amad, renowned airline analüst at his best.

Solid people who won’t let reality ruin their opinion...

The existence of these articles proves that they are thought to be good value for money.
( Nobel prize on Ecomony 2017 supports the mechanism.)

The problem for Emirates and by extension Airbus revolves around the secondary market. If retiring Emirates A380's can not find new homes, than the cost equation for financing new A380's will have to consider a shorter economic life for the aircraft. In other words higher financing costs.

I'd suggest any new order for A380's would be accompanied with Airbus backed financing guarantees.

JetBuddy wrote:

The only way to grow at a constrained airport, is to upgauge the equipment. Hoping for a reduction in 777 orders and an increase in A380.

The other way to grow is connect less traffic and bypass the congestion. Now this is usually a competitor. But EK could use say 787s to bypass DXB if needed.

Most important is CASM. Big only works if costs are low enough to not lose too much in the slow season.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

The other way to grow is connect less traffic and bypass the congestion. Now this is usually a competitor. But EK could use say 787s to bypass DXB if needed.
Lightsaber

??? How could EK BYPASS DXB???

Gemuser

Slug71 wrote:

Hopefully something happens, but we've heard all this before. Emirates have already said they're not impressed by the Plus and want to see more commitments from other carriers.
They've also said they want a NEO with other improvements or redesigned wings. A NEO just can't happen for obvious reasons.

.

Unless there ARE other carriers that plan on ordering the A380. Though, I think that scenario becomes less and less likely with a gluten of used A380's about to hit the market. If there's an airline that's interested in A380, do they buy a slightly used and well maintained one at what will probably be a very cheap price or buy a very expensive new one?

If the 380 had the legs to fly SFO-SIN non stop than I think UA should buy a few cheap, used 380's. They could essentially have one flight a day down to SIN instead of flying two B789's. Lord knows that has to be a heck of a lot cheaper doing it with one 380.

Plus will definitely involve the geometry and wingtip changes. Short of NEO (that Emirates would prefer), the Plus will give any buyer improved economics until any new engine is ready, so hopefully the likes of BA will come in for a few as well as Emirates.
Regards
b

Gemuser wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

The other way to grow is connect less traffic and bypass the congestion. Now this is usually a competitor. But EK could use say 787s to bypass DXB if needed.
Lightsaber

??? How could EK BYPASS DXB???

Gemuser

That would require lots of 7th freedom rights. I doubt lots of countries will hand them out.

My guess is that the A380plus might be the thing going forward. Hopefully it’s enough for a few other carriers to jump onboard with it.

Boeing778X wrote:

My guess is that the A380plus might be the thing going forward. Hopefully it’s enough for a few other carriers to jump onboard with it.

If you accept what leehamnews wrote then there will need to be a few other carriers to come aboard because EK's order is not said to be big enough to justify the development of the winglets.

With Emirates already considering the 787 and some suggesting an order as an already done deal, we have antidote evidence that Emirates is and has been willing to change its business model to include smaller, more versatile aircraft.

As such a question revolves around the market that Emirates sees itself operating in over the next 10-20 years.

STC has already stated that LCC airlines likes of Norwegian have been undermining their ability to attract passengers from their traditional customer market base. As these airlines take delivery of 787’s, A350’s and A330NEO’s the impact to Emirates traditional business will only get worse.

…….and this is where the irony lies. Emirates was an airline that for the most part was able to undermine the business models of the established legacy carriers limiting their ability to use an aircraft the size of the A380. Today, the emerging LCC’s are doing, in part the same thing to Emirates.

travelhound wrote:

…….and this is where the irony lies. Emirates was an airline that for the most part was able to undermine the business models of the established legacy carriers limiting their ability to use an aircraft the size of the A380. Today, the emerging LCC’s are doing, in part the same thing to Emirates.

And thus STC's anger that he couldn't get Airbus to build him an A380neo or something even better: he needs a lower CASM to fight off the LCCs.

jumbojet wrote:

Unless there ARE other carriers that plan on ordering the A380. Though, I think that scenario becomes less and less likely with a gluten of used A380's about to hit the market. If there's an airline that's interested in A380, do they buy a slightly used and well maintained one at what will probably be a very cheap price or buy a very expensive new one?

Revelation wrote:

If you accept what leehamnews wrote then there will need to be a few other carriers to come aboard because EK's order is not said to be big enough to justify the development of the winglets.

Just 3 months ago...

Bloomberg: Airbus talking additional A380 orders over with IAG, ANA and TG
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1369295

Gemuser wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

The other way to grow is connect less traffic and bypass the congestion. Now this is usually a competitor. But EK could use say 787s to bypass DXB if needed.
Lightsaber

??? How could EK BYPASS DXB???

Different options:
More 5th freedom routes such as MXP-JFK.
Start a mini hub somewhere else.
Fly p-2-p routes, where allowed.
How much would Indian regulator "charge" to allow EK to fly India-U.S. non-stop?

Emirates may eventually need as many as 200 A380s:

The new Dubai World Central Airport (DWC) would allow Emirates Airline to operate 200 Airbus A380s – twice as many as it has today, the carrier’s president said Friday.

Speaking to ATW in Hamburg on the sidelines of ceremonies for the delivery of Emirates’ 100th A380, Tim Clark said the new airport will have 100 gates capable of handling very large aircraft (VLA) like the A380 and Boeing 747-8i, which would “easily” facilitate the operation of 200 A380s.

http://atwonline.com/airbus-a380/clark- ... ai-airport

beenalongtime wrote:

Plus will definitely involve the geometry and wingtip changes. Short of NEO (that Emirates would prefer), the Plus will give any buyer improved economics until any new engine is ready, so hopefully the likes of BA will come in for a few as well as Emirates.
Regards
b

Boeing778X wrote:

My guess is that the A380plus might be the thing going forward. Hopefully it’s enough for a few other carriers to jump onboard with it.

Except that the Plus doesn't address the overbuilt wings. Even if it does stay in production long enough for a NEO, the wings still need to be addressed since they were designed around the -900. A lot of wasted efficiency there.

And while the winglets aren't retrofittable (which is silly IMO), the reconfigured cabin of the Plus (which is the bulk of the better fuel burn) should be able to be reworked into used A380s. So depending on cost, there may not be much of an incentive to go with new built frames vs used frames coming off lease/up for sale.

Will definitely be interesting to see how things play out.

FoxtrotSierra wrote:

Right on the heels of EK's 100th A380, HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al Maktoum stated Emirates and Airbus are working toward a new order before the Dubai Air Show Nov. 12

“I hope that we will be able to do it” in time for the biennial air show in Emirates’ hometown, Al Maktoum said to reporters.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gship-a380

If that happens it will be the biggest thread in airliners.net history.

Revelation wrote:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-03/airbus-working-with-emirates-on-new-order-for-flagship-a380 says:

I suppose if EK makes a big enough commitment to replace existing A380s and others replace some subset of their fleets it can limp along at its current rate for a decade, no?

At some point, Emirates is going to dump its existing A380s on the resale market. The plane has always been regarded as too much of a capital expense new out of the factory, but who might scoop up a few used A380s at a discount? My guess is they're going to show up in Asia flying for carriers who weren't willing to pay list price...