zakuivcustom wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

joeman wrote:

I agree they get out of hand...I musta missed the big sell/snow jobs in this thread by proponents of some or all these cited cities...I seem to see a lot of chiming in for anything and everything from AUS, BNA, and RDU fans in these thread types though, and oh yeah, I did at least see a suggestion on that group along with PHL.

Lots of bashing on IND, CVG, CLE, MCI, MKE, e.t.c on this thread when no one even suggested any of those cities, I only recall reading AUS, BNA, and CMH mentioned here....

Although I totally agree none of those cities have a snowballs chance of being JAL's next destination

I would say that it's more of a sarcastic replies just due to the fact there are threads about "Will (insert random Midwest airport here) get TPAC service" once every so often.

In general I find there are three (and a half) groups, at least when it comes to US airports:
1. The Midwest group, saying how the like of IND or MCI or STL, etc. should now get TPAC service. Happening b/c you can't make thread about whether they'll get TATL services anymore.
1a. klm617 and how we should have non-stop from DTW to every single airports in the world. TPAC not just to NRT or HND but also PUS, KIX, FUK, WUH, TSN, URC, ALA, ULN (Okay...not the last few)
2. The South "high growth" city group, so AUS, BNA, and RDU, and to lesser extent, MSY or CLT.
3. MIA...seriously, this has been how many years?

(BTW, I'm definitely being sarcastic about CMH).

P.S. The one airport without TPAC that I always find to be slightly oddball is PHL anyway. The East Asian population is definitely there, but there's not even 1 flight to that APAC. Too close to NYC I guess?

If you search "when will IND/STL/MCI get TPAC service" or anything similar in the past year or two you will find zero threads, just saying....
I think you are getting those cities mixed up with BNA and AUS....

Midwestindy wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Lots of bashing on IND, CVG, CLE, MCI, MKE, e.t.c on this thread when no one even suggested any of those cities, I only recall reading AUS, BNA, and CMH mentioned here....

Although I totally agree none of those cities have a snowballs chance of being JAL's next destination

I would say that it's more of a sarcastic replies just due to the fact there are threads about "Will (insert random Midwest airport here) get TPAC service" once every so often.

In general I find there are three (and a half) groups, at least when it comes to US airports:
1. The Midwest group, saying how the like of IND or MCI or STL, etc. should now get TPAC service. Happening b/c you can't make thread about whether they'll get TATL services anymore.
1a. klm617 and how we should have non-stop from DTW to every single airports in the world. TPAC not just to NRT or HND but also PUS, KIX, FUK, WUH, TSN, URC, ALA, ULN (Okay...not the last few)
2. The South "high growth" city group, so AUS, BNA, and RDU, and to lesser extent, MSY or CLT.
3. MIA...seriously, this has been how many years?

(BTW, I'm definitely being sarcastic about CMH).

P.S. The one airport without TPAC that I always find to be slightly oddball is PHL anyway. The East Asian population is definitely there, but there's not even 1 flight to that APAC. Too close to NYC I guess?

If you search "when will IND/STL/MCI get TPAC service" or anything similar in the past year or two you will find zero threads, just saying....
I think you are getting those cities mixed up with BNA and AUS....

Okay, I do admit that I extend the "(Insert Midwest Airport here) TATL service" too far. But yeah, AUS with Samsung/KE and BNA with Nissan/JL or NH definitely takes the crown

But just admit that MIA TPAC dominates all (I mean, just look at the first 5 or 6 replies in this thread alone).

P.S. I live near IND, so it's not like I'm those people that hates on that airport for no reason. Of course, demographics just doesn't help in Indiana (Personal experience so far is that the Chinese/Korean/Japnaese/Indian/etc. that lives here are mostly college students, with some random professionals around Indy. There's the Burmese refugee population, but I doubt they would want to go back to Burma anytime soon).

Some good comments fighting MAN’s corner on this thread, not that I’m biased!

(After reading the MOFA data)
To the contrary of all the MAN cheerleaders, I just don't see where the demands are.

1. The population is not there. Total of maybe 2000 Japanese in the entire NW England, which is not even 1/10 of Greater London itself (~35k), and this is not counting SE England (Kent/Surrey Area, ~12k) or East of England Area (~4k)
2. The business are not there either. Out of ~900 Japanese business in England (Not sure how the number are counted, but that's what the report said, read p.260 of http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/000293758.pdf), a large majority (~500) are in London, then about another ~150 is in the area around London. Manchester? 13 total.
3. Tourism? Not that hard to go from London and up. Not many people will visit Manchester area specifically all the way from Japan, without visiting, let say, London also. (Conversely, there's a reason why most long-haul flights to Japan goes only to Tokyo. Many American or European visiting Japan would highly likely visit Kyoto also, but that hasn't exactly create huge demand for European or TPAC flights into KIX).

To simply put - the demand is just not there. Japanese presence in UK is heavily London-centric (Okay, so is everything else in UK).

zakuivcustom wrote:

But just admit that MIA TPAC dominates all (I mean, just look at the first 5 or 6 replies in this thread alone).

Admitted!!! lol

If you think that MAN could get JAL service, you still need to do a lot of research about JAL. We re not talking about DY here who flies from random places to other random places.
MAN is an outbound market yes, but a rather low yielding one and JAL is more interested in its own outbound market that is much more lucrative.


As for the HEL supporters, I ll give you an airtight argument as to why people hate HEL.
If you are booking a business class ticket between Western Europe and Japan or vice versa where there is no direct route or you have to/ prefer to fly Jal/ OW, would you rather take a 1 or 2 hour connecting flight to/from CDG/LHR and enjoy 12 hours of Jal business class, or take a 3-5 narrowbody connecting flight to HEL and then enjoy JAL's business class for only 9 hours?

About AY/HELbeing a low cost business model is certain. When on longhaul flights hey interrupt the movies to force you to listen and watch their ads in different languages for their duty free offering, its a lowcost airline.
When you only get a glass of water or half a glass of blueberry juice that isnt even 100% juice on a 4 hour connecting flight to HEL at lunch time, its a low cost service.
When you come off a plane from Asia and head to the better longhaul lounge and lounge staff try to persuade you to go to the Shenghen lounge where youd actually be standing in line on the stairs to the lounge for at least 20 minutes before you can enter it, its a cheap move.
When you arrive to the Shengen gate to wait for your flight and you notice that there are no chairs to sit at so that youd ne forced to look for a place to sit in a expensive cafe, its a cheap lowcost airport.
Japanese pax are used to Japanese omotenashi service so they notice such things straight away. They cant be fooled.

About the fares, it depends on where you originate. JAL make a ton of money selling AY flights with their code on it to unsuspecting Japanese customers, and its not cheap. On the other hand, if you originate in Western Europe and you know your way around the OTAs, you will find flights for less than 500 EUR on a regular basis, simply because AY need to fill their seats. The same flight departing half an hour earlier but on JAL metal can easily cost 50% more and if you consider only the fare portion, its double. Thats how people end up on those AY flights.

I take these AY flights only if the schedule doesnt allow me to take a JAL flight, the fare is dirt cheap, I get miles and have my OW Sapphire lounge access. AY isnt earning a dime on me and they re not very profitable overall.

Where is the MIA announcement? More FNN on ANET?

zakuivcustom wrote:

(After reading the MOFA data)
To the contrary of all the MAN cheerleaders, I just don't see where the demands are.

1. The population is not there. Total of maybe 2000 Japanese in the entire NW England, which is not even 1/10 of Greater London itself (~35k), and this is not counting SE England (Kent/Surrey Area, ~12k) or East of England Area (~4k)
2. The business are not there either. Out of ~900 Japanese business in England (Not sure how the number are counted, but that's what the report said, read p.260 of http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/000293758.pdf), a large majority (~500) are in London, then about another ~150 is in the area around London. Manchester? 13 total.
3. Tourism? Not that hard to go from London and up. Not many people will visit Manchester area specifically all the way from Japan, without visiting, let say, London also. (Conversely, there's a reason why most long-haul flights to Japan goes only to Tokyo. Many American or European visiting Japan would highly likely visit Kyoto also, but that hasn't exactly create huge demand for European or TPAC flights into KIX).

To simply put - the demand is just not there. Japanese presence in UK is heavily London-centric (Okay, so is everything else in UK).

While I agree that things in the UK are generally London centric, after reading your post, it's clear you haven't actually acknowledged any of the other posts about MAN. You still seem to think MAN serves Manchester only, and it's really, really not the case at all.

It's interesting that when talking about London, you have no issue including its surroundings, but when it's Manchester, it's Manchester only.

User001 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

(After reading the MOFA data)
To the contrary of all the MAN cheerleaders, I just don't see where the demands are.

1. The population is not there. Total of maybe 2000 Japanese in the entire NW England, which is not even 1/10 of Greater London itself (~35k), and this is not counting SE England (Kent/Surrey Area, ~12k) or East of England Area (~4k)
2. The business are not there either. Out of ~900 Japanese business in England (Not sure how the number are counted, but that's what the report said, read p.260 of http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/000293758.pdf), a large majority (~500) are in London, then about another ~150 is in the area around London. Manchester? 13 total.
3. Tourism? Not that hard to go from London and up. Not many people will visit Manchester area specifically all the way from Japan, without visiting, let say, London also. (Conversely, there's a reason why most long-haul flights to Japan goes only to Tokyo. Many American or European visiting Japan would highly likely visit Kyoto also, but that hasn't exactly create huge demand for European or TPAC flights into KIX).

To simply put - the demand is just not there. Japanese presence in UK is heavily London-centric (Okay, so is everything else in UK).

While I agree that things in the UK are generally London centric, after reading your post, it's clear you haven't actually acknowledged any of the other posts about MAN. You still seem to think MAN serves Manchester only, and it's really, really not the case at all.

It's interesting that when talking about London, you have no issue including its surroundings, but when it's Manchester, it's Manchester only.

And how far out should I go? I can throw in the entire Yorkshire/Humber (Which would included all of Leeds/Bradford and Sheffield) and you're still only talking about maybe ~3000 Japanese, and maybe 10 more Japanese business? The original statistics itself already included the whole NW England (So anything on Western half of England from Carlisie to Chester).

To simply put, the number is just not there. Unlike, let say, Chinese in UK, which are much more spread out and decentralized (If anything, Manchester Chinatown is the 3rd largest in Europe, only behind London and Paris. Then there's Liverpool, which has a sizable Chinese community also); Japanese are heavily centralized in London and SE England, and nowhere else.

CHI2DFW wrote:

Where is the MIA announcement? More FNN on ANET?

You mean still no JL to HND and CX to HKG?

Waterbomber wrote:

they re not very profitable overall.

Actually AY is doing fine. Their Q3 this year was the best Q3 in the company's history and the 12th consecutive quarterly improvement.

zakuivcustom wrote:

User001 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

(After reading the MOFA data)
To the contrary of all the MAN cheerleaders, I just don't see where the demands are.

1. The population is not there. Total of maybe 2000 Japanese in the entire NW England, which is not even 1/10 of Greater London itself (~35k), and this is not counting SE England (Kent/Surrey Area, ~12k) or East of England Area (~4k)
2. The business are not there either. Out of ~900 Japanese business in England (Not sure how the number are counted, but that's what the report said, read p.260 of http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/000293758.pdf), a large majority (~500) are in London, then about another ~150 is in the area around London. Manchester? 13 total.
3. Tourism? Not that hard to go from London and up. Not many people will visit Manchester area specifically all the way from Japan, without visiting, let say, London also. (Conversely, there's a reason why most long-haul flights to Japan goes only to Tokyo. Many American or European visiting Japan would highly likely visit Kyoto also, but that hasn't exactly create huge demand for European or TPAC flights into KIX).

To simply put - the demand is just not there. Japanese presence in UK is heavily London-centric (Okay, so is everything else in UK).

While I agree that things in the UK are generally London centric, after reading your post, it's clear you haven't actually acknowledged any of the other posts about MAN. You still seem to think MAN serves Manchester only, and it's really, really not the case at all.

It's interesting that when talking about London, you have no issue including its surroundings, but when it's Manchester, it's Manchester only.

And how far out should I go? I can throw in the entire Yorkshire/Humber (Which would included all of Leeds/Bradford and Sheffield) and you're still only talking about maybe ~3000 Japanese, and maybe 10 more Japanese business? The original statistics itself already included the whole NW England (So anything on Western half of England from Carlisie to Chester).

To simply put, the number is just not there. Unlike, let say, Chinese in UK, which are much more spread out and decentralized (If anything, Manchester Chinatown is the 3rd largest in Europe, only behind London and Paris. Then there's Liverpool, which has a sizable Chinese community also); Japanese are heavily centralized in London and SE England, and nowhere else.

How far out? Well, as said, you have no issue including Kent and Surrey, to which has about 80 miles of radius around LHR. And thus my issue that you want to include such a huge area to prove one point but only say MAN serves just Manchester on the other end of the scale.

Your point on that one was one of tourism, by saying 'Japanese tourists won't go to Manchester', and when you widen the net of Manchester to the same level of the net you cast around London, then you do include some of the most beautiful and visited tourism sites outside of the capital. Liverpool and it's World heritage status, the Lakes, the peaks, Snowdonia, Chester. And don't try and convince me people won't travel in large numbers to see them, because I see on a regular basis with my own eyes that they do.

In terms of business, I actually posted a PDF from the Japanese consulate further up the thread, the PDF you have tried to throw at us about the lack of Japanese business in the MAN catchment dates from 2008 (if I've read it right). 2008 is nearly 10 years ago. I used to have a 6 pack 10 years ago, a lot changes! Trying to come at me with facts from 2008 is like me trying to convince you Santa Claus is real.

zakuivcustom wrote:

And how far out should I go? I can throw in the entire Yorkshire/Humber (Which would included all of Leeds/Bradford and Sheffield) and you're still only talking about maybe ~3000 Japanese, and maybe 10 more Japanese business? The original statistics itself already included the whole NW England (So anything on Western half of England from Carlisie to Chester).

How about referencing a 2016 PDF that User001 kindly furnished for us rather than one that contains data "As of October 1, 2008" per Google translate version of the top right hand side. For Hainan's route to Beijing, MAN held roadshows from Northeast England down to the West Midlands. Therefore I contend that they would do the same for Tokyo - wihch means that we can look at Japanese investment in that area: 94 factories, 18 European headquaeters with 62000 employees in total. There are 60 Japanese businesses in Manchester alone per this http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/business/business-news/manchesters-future-land-rising-sunlooks-10537641. Is it such a far fetched thing? Indeed why would a MAN director actually go public a year ago with a call for a link to Japan if they didn't have access to the numbers of people routing to Japan from the catchment area and seeing if they can pull in the local businesses that would make it feasible?

BCN?

I wanted to add to my previous post before any more people accuse of being purely a 'MAN cheerleader'.

I'm not suggesting MAN should be JAL's next long haul route, far from it, there are clearly a few cities that are far more likely to get a service next. I am purely answering to 2 main points that:

-MAN will never get a JAL link. It's impossible to say never. Yes, right now, it's unlikely, but not 'never'

-I'm also trying to answer claims about MAN's perception. There seems to be this idea that MAN serves some backwater places that has no business, no tourism and a general 'who would want to go there' attitude. MAN is in the top 75 airports of the world. It handles close to 28m pax, has a range of airlines and destinations that for a regional airport not linked to a major centre or capital city, is almost quite unique in the worlds stage.
While not a major centre/capital, it still has some valuable industry in the locality, it has large VFRflows, has some decent tourist offering.

It's probably down to London that MAN gets the 'raw deal' on this, as seen as most think that the UK is London, which is wrong as it would be like people thinking the USA is just New York, or Japan is just Tokyo and such, but hopefully with a bit of marketing this can change.

I reaffirm that JAL will never get a MAN flight.
If there is any small chance that there is a direct flight, it will be with NH. But JL, not in our lifetime.

In the big picture, the UK is London and the rest is farmland.
The same way Japan is Tokyo and the rest of it is farmland.
I don't see global airlines fighting over slots in MAN or CTS.

My respects to MAN for building itself up despite being so close to LON. But MAN is to LHR, LGW, STN, LUT what NGO is to HND and NRT.
A decent catchment area, but at the end of the day, if JAL had to fly to all the MAN's of this world, it would need a fleet of 200 Dreamliners and 2 more runways at the TYO airports.

That's fine, you are entitled to believe that, but I will also state that I'm certainly not willing to put money on it.

I do agree that NH is more likely, but that is down to JAL recently adding the second LHR flight more than anything.

In terms of Europe, given the major obvious cities are all now connected to Japan in one form or other, it surely means MAN is now towards the top of the list for the next unserved destination to be served.

And your picture about the rest of the U.K. Being farmland? Seriously? Wow. That is so far off the mark that I can't even begin to counter that argument, there simply isn't enough time in the day. It's exactly why perceptions need to change.

Seriously. Have you actually visited the UK or conducted any research on the place? Just wow. In fact no, I seriously just lost all respect for your posts after that one. That is so uneducated. Jesus.

Waterbomber wrote:

As for the HEL supporters, I'll give you an airtight argument as to why people hate HEL.

If you hate HEL that does not mean all people hate. There are lots of people who like HEL and based on customer satisfaction (which reached the record level this year) as well as passenger reviews most people like Helsinki Airport. Stop saying people generally hate HEL since that's your own opinion.

Be that as it may, this is how CEO's of airlines think.
Cut Tokyo out of Japan and Japan Airlines could be proud if it had a dozen Cessna Caravans.

There's a reason why highways are built in a pattern of connected cities and people living in smaller cities have to take detours to get to their destinations. You find the same patterns in the sky, but there the barrier to entry is much much higher.

At the end of the day, this discussion is irrelevant. If you want to believe that JAL could realistically start a route before we can forget that we had this discussion, then I'll eat my hat.

Water bomber.


Your way of thinking is so bizzare, and dare say, stupid, that I simply don't know how to respond to you. Airline CEO's do not think like you in any shape or form. The fact you think Finnair is a low cost airline and that the rest of the U.K. Is farmland shows a level of on education that simply cannot be countered. You can't fight stupid.

For now, I suppose I better get back to my farm (as seen as I live outside London I therefore must live on a farm), and in the meantime, keep that hat on ice. Not saying you'll need it imminently, but you never know when you might need that snack......

Water bomber.

Your way of thinking is so bizzare, and dare say, stupid, that I simply don't know how to respond to you. Airline CEO's do not think like you in any shape or form. The fact you think Finnair is a low cost airline and that the rest of the U.K. Is farmland shows a level of on education that simply cannot be countered. You can't fight stupid.

For now, I suppose I better get back to my farm (as seen as I live outside London I therefore must live on a farm), and in the meantime, keep that hat on ice. Not saying you'll need it imminently, but you never know when you might need that snack......

David_itl wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

And how far out should I go? I can throw in the entire Yorkshire/Humber (Which would included all of Leeds/Bradford and Sheffield) and you're still only talking about maybe ~3000 Japanese, and maybe 10 more Japanese business? The original statistics itself already included the whole NW England (So anything on Western half of England from Carlisie to Chester).

How about referencing a 2016 PDF that User001 kindly furnished for us rather than one that contains data "As of October 1, 2008" per Google translate version of the top right hand side. For Hainan's route to Beijing, MAN held roadshows from Northeast England down to the West Midlands. Therefore I contend that they would do the same for Tokyo - wihch means that we can look at Japanese investment in that area: 94 factories, 18 European headquaeters with 62000 employees in total. There are 60 Japanese businesses in Manchester alone per this http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/business/business-news/manchesters-future-land-rising-sunlooks-10537641. Is it such a far fetched thing? Indeed why would a MAN director actually go public a year ago with a call for a link to Japan if they didn't have access to the numbers of people routing to Japan from the catchment area and seeing if they can pull in the local businesses that would make it feasible?

Google Translate

It is "As of Heisei 28", or 2016.

Waterbomber wrote:

I reaffirm that JAL will never get a MAN flight.
If there is any small chance that there is a direct flight, it will be with NH. But JL, not in our lifetime.

In the big picture, the UK is London and the rest is farmland.
The same way Japan is Tokyo and the rest of it is farmland.
I don't see global airlines fighting over slots in MAN or CTS.

My respects to MAN for building itself up despite being so close to LON. But MAN is to LHR, LGW, STN, LUT what NGO is to HND and NRT.
A decent catchment area, but at the end of the day, if JAL had to fly to all the MAN's of this world, it would need a fleet of 200 Dreamliners and 2 more runways at the TYO airports.

While you did exaggerate quite a bit, the better comparison to MAN is KIX anyway. Giant metropolis, but its long haul offering is 1/5 of TYO and doesn't even have a flight to either LON or NYC.

Zero demand? Not necessarily. But demand big enough for a non-stop? Not quite there yet. Ultimately, CX to HKG or SQ to SIN has both O&D and Kangaroo route traffic going for them, and even then, CX didn't start the non-stop until 2014, and similar timeframe for SQ. (HU to PEK, well, they have to fly somewhere...)

After reading four pages of this thread, and tried getting into the discussion, I still can't quite understand the point of this thread.

carlokiii wrote:

After reading four pages of this thread, and tried getting into the discussion, I still can't quite understand the point of this thread.

It's your typical "Will (Insert random airport here) get a flight to (insert your long-haul destination, or TATL/TPAC)" thread . There is a tendency of people who think their local airport has way larger demand than reality, your typical off-topic grudge hater (It's usually those DL threads or B6 thread, though), and then those people who think there should be point-to-point routes everywhere now that the 787 exist

Just another side note myself - if you actually look at JL's timetable, you'll realized that they pretty much run all their flights daily. The only exception right now is JL421/JL422 (NRT-DME), which just went Daily to 4/wk from October 29. But then, Russian winter are not fun

In another word, you want NRT-MAN flight? Demand has to be enough for a daily flight. None of the East Asia flights from MAN right now are daily (CX and SQ are 5/wk, HU is 3 or 4/wk).

P.S. No, I don't see NH going to MAN either. It's not really their territory (They can dominate the rest of the Central Europe first, especially now that LH is operating in a big monopoly around Germany that will increase the fare by 300% )

WHY does it have to be daily? I'd like all manner of new long-haul routes to be daily MAN but if the market is dictating lesser frequency then so be it. CX is happy enough with 5 (though in a month it will become daily), SQ is happy enough with 5 (and some indications that they may increase), HU has been is 3 weekly but was daily in the summer (so we have 42% of the summer frequency with about 60% of the capacity). In fact, HU have stated demand exceeded expectations by 15%... so perhaps airlines may NOT know all the answers and just too conservative in their outlook. As for headbashing emoticon, why would ANYONE post something in Japanese only with NO English translation. I went to Google as I'm not goimg to spend money on a frivolous transationn.. This forums is in the English language only. Still, I guess sooner or later when the next East Asian MAN route by a flag carrier is announced on a less than daily basis then we can see how foolish JL appears to be in their outlook.

David_itl wrote:

WHY does it have to be daily? I'd like all manner of new long-haul routes to be daily MAN but if the market is dictating lesser frequency then so be it. CX is happy enough with 5 (though in a month it will become daily), SQ is happy enough with 5 (and some indications that they may increase), HU has been is 3 weekly but was daily in the summer (so we have 42% of the summer frequency with about 60% of the capacity). In fact, HU have stated demand exceeded expectations by 15%... so perhaps airlines may NOT know all the answers and just too conservative in their outlook. As for headbashing emoticon, why would ANYONE post something in Japanese only with NO English translation. I went to Google as I'm not goimg to spend money on a frivolous transationn.. This forums is in the English language only. Still, I guess sooner or later when the next East Asian MAN route by a flag carrier is announced on a less than daily basis then we can see how foolish JL appears to be in their outlook.

All I'm saying is it's how JL tend to run long-haul routes, which lessen the chance of a Japan (Tokyo)-MAN non-stop. To certain extent, it's one of those routes that could work on 3/wk (The demand is not zero, but not quite there for a daily non-stop), but it's just not how JL work is all I'm trying to put out there.

As for the report, it's not that I want to put out a Japanese report out there, but rather, it's by far the best report in terms of number of Japanese oversea and by far the most accurate (Government source) and contains way more detail than needed, down to metro area/cities.

P.S. Another side note I want to make, China (or HK) flights to MAN works bc the demographics is there (As I previously said, Manchester Chinatown is not the 3rd largest in Europe for nothing). It's just not so for Japanese.

Ultimately, we all know KL is laughing all the way to the bank thanks to their hub in UK's 2nd largest airport.

Re the Japanese report posted, The document I linked earlier was also an official government document, it came from the Japanese consulate, so, who is to say which one is more accurate?

In terms of a Japan flight being daily, it doesn't have to have demand for a daily flight, 4 weekly is ample to start with (I believe NRT-DUS started 4 weekly?). And as for people telling us 'there isn't enough demand for a daily flight', smacks of the time Virgin Atlantic tried to convince a Heathrow enquiry that there was not enough demand to run a daily MAN-HKG flight. Seemed to mean naff all to CX, did it who clearly had the last laugh!

As for daily flights existing at MAN, CX is going daily in a few weeks, HU goes daily again in June and one could argue SQ is actually 10 weekly (if we want to be pedantic about it, which seems to be the trend of the thread).

But once again we have international posters that think they know the MAN market better than those who use it, work in it and live in it, and there is a danger some people may be gullible enough to believe the nonsense spouted here. Why not actually research the North and Midlands of the U.K. Properly before making generalisations about the area, or better still, why not visit and see the area for yourself before you lecture us on how crap our catchment supposedly is, it might just surprise you.

Now, back to my farm to tend to my whippets while eating pies..........

User001 wrote:

Re the Japanese report posted, The document I linked earlier was also an official government document, it came from the Japanese consulate, so, who is to say which one is more accurate?

In terms of a Japan flight being daily, it doesn't have to have demand for a daily flight, 4 weekly is ample to start with (I believe NRT-DUS started 4 weekly?). And as for people telling us 'there isn't enough demand for a daily flight', smacks of the time Virgin Atlantic tried to convince a Heathrow enquiry that there was not enough demand to run a daily MAN-HKG flight. Seemed to mean naff all to CX, did it who clearly had the last laugh!

As for daily flights existing at MAN, CX is going daily in a few weeks, HU goes daily again in June and one could argue SQ is actually 10 weekly (if we want to be pedantic about it, which seems to be the trend of the thread).

But once again we have international posters that think they know the MAN market better than those who use it, work in it and live in it, and there is a danger some people may be gullible enough to believe the nonsense spouted here. Why not actually research the North and Midlands of the U.K. Properly before making generalisations about the area, or better still, why not visit and see the area for yourself before you lecture us on how crap our catchment supposedly is, it might just surprise you.

Now, back to my farm to tend to my whippets while eating pies..........

NRT-DUS start as 7/wk. And you simply can't compare the two, Dusseldorf area has the largest Japanese community in Germany, and ANA ran a shuttle from Dusseldorf to Frankfurt for years.

And like I already mention, the market to HK or China is definitely there, but market to Japan? I am not so sure.

I wasn't comparing MAN to DUS, I had simply mistaken if DUS was launched at 4 weekly, but clearly it wasn't.

crazyfoo88 wrote:

Im still shocked that NH or JL don't fly to YYZ.

GO GO TORONTO !!

Why does any new JAL long-haul have to be from NRT/HND ? Perhaps they could re-instate the LHR-KIX service, last flown when they had MD-11's.

MIA supporters seem to be the most vocal about TPAC flights on this board. A metro dominated by a Latin demographic with virtually no cultural ties to the Far East with a paltry Asian population. Somehow that will suffice for a East Asian foreign bird to run a ULH to a beach destination to haul Filipinos to MNL via their Asia hub is laughable.

TC957 wrote:

Why does any new JAL long-haul have to be from NRT/HND ? Perhaps they could re-instate the LHR-KIX service, last flown when they had MD-11's.

Well, the original question was "JAL next international destination", and the probability is about 99.9% that any new destinations by JL would be from NRT/HND.

KIX-LHR is certainly a "route" that I can see JL finally go back into (It's heavily requested by businesses in Kansai in general). Either them or BA.

User001 wrote:

I wasn't comparing MAN to DUS, I had simply mistaken if DUS was launched at 4 weekly, but clearly it wasn't.

I guess I did misunderstood your point initially. I do apologized for that. Well, I guess I do concurred with you somewhat that MAN is "never say never", but definitely not quite there yet destinations. JL may shocked me, though (They did open up BOS and SAN, after all, and at SAN they remain the only TPAC flight unless you count Hawaii).

Fastphilly wrote:

MIA supporters seem to be the most vocal about TPAC flights on this board. A metro dominated by a Latin demographic with virtually no cultural ties to the Far East with a paltry Asian population. Somehow that will suffice for a East Asian foreign bird to run a ULH to a beach destination to haul Filipinos to MNL via their Asia hub is laughable.

The usual argument for MIA flight is for connection to LATAM anyway. Except that there's just not that many "major" destinations that one has to fly into MIA to go into, but not through JFK, LAX, or DFW. Most of the one I can think of are in Caribbean, and how much demand really is there anyway from Japan?

Then there's the O&D demand. If any Japanese visit MIA it's 99% tourism, and I highly doubt that fill up the front at all. And like I always say, any Japanese that wants US beach destinations can easily visit Hawaii.

The last would be all those Filipino workers for cruises at MIA, like those people would buy an expensive ticket on JL instead of cheap ticket from whatever airlines.

Waterbomber wrote:

In the big picture, the UK is London and the rest is farmland.

Whilst I agree ANA give the best chance of a MAN-TYO link, such decisions are made on the facts and not perception.

In the bigger picture, the only city in Europe comparable with London is Paris, and even that is a stretch. The reality is that in Europe, London is in a league of its own and comparing it to cities like Manchester, Frankfurt, Berlin, Rome, Madrid, Brussels is not a fair comparison.

MAN sits at the middle of a catchment area (major cities include but are not limited to Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Sheffield) that would be something like the 10th largest economy in Europe. That's larger than Poland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark and Finland (each of which, I understand, has non stop flights to Tokyo).

MAN is expected to be, roughly, the 18th busiest airport in Europe. Here is a list of smaller airports in Europe with direct links to Tokyo: Oslo, Düsseldorf, Vienna, Brussels, Helsinki, Warsaw (Milan as well but that is an unusual situation).

Is MAN-TYO possible? Absolutely.

DobboDobbo wrote:

Here is a list of smaller airports in Europe with direct links to Tokyo: Oslo, Düsseldorf, Vienna, Brussels, Helsinki, Warsaw (Milan as well but that is an unusual situation).

Actually OSL has no other connections to Asia than BKK (TG).

Both OSL and ARN are missing a link to TYO.

Nami wrote:

DobboDobbo wrote:

Here is a list of smaller airports in Europe with direct links to Tokyo: Oslo, Düsseldorf, Vienna, Brussels, Helsinki, Warsaw (Milan as well but that is an unusual situation).

Actually OSL has no other connections to Asia than BKK (TG).

Both OSL and ARN are missing a link to TYO.

I stand corrected on that.

TC957 wrote:

Why does any new JAL long-haul have to be from NRT/HND ? Perhaps they could re-instate the LHR-KIX service, last flown when they had MD-11's.

(Without specifying airlines), KIX airport authority have just stated that they are looking to start London flight as early as year 2019 but there are still the problem of slot at London airport and also the problem of route authority for overflying Siberia that need to be solved.
http://www.aviationwire.jp/archives/132438

Waterbomber wrote:

If you think that MAN could get JAL service, you still need to do a lot of research about JAL. We re not talking about DY here who flies from random places to other random places.
MAN is an outbound market yes, but a rather low yielding one and JAL is more interested in its own outbound market that is much more lucrative.


As for the HEL supporters, I ll give you an airtight argument as to why people hate HEL.
If you are booking a business class ticket between Western Europe and Japan or vice versa where there is no direct route or you have to/ prefer to fly Jal/ OW, would you rather take a 1 or 2 hour connecting flight to/from CDG/LHR and enjoy 12 hours of Jal business class, or take a 3-5 narrowbody connecting flight to HEL and then enjoy JAL's business class for only 9 hours?

About AY/HELbeing a low cost business model is certain. When on longhaul flights hey interrupt the movies to force you to listen and watch their ads in different languages for their duty free offering, its a lowcost airline.
When you only get a glass of water or half a glass of blueberry juice that isnt even 100% juice on a 4 hour connecting flight to HEL at lunch time, its a low cost service.
When you come off a plane from Asia and head to the better longhaul lounge and lounge staff try to persuade you to go to the Shenghen lounge where youd actually be standing in line on the stairs to the lounge for at least 20 minutes before you can enter it, its a cheap move.
When you arrive to the Shengen gate to wait for your flight and you notice that there are no chairs to sit at so that youd ne forced to look for a place to sit in a expensive cafe, its a cheap lowcost airport.
Japanese pax are used to Japanese omotenashi service so they notice such things straight away. They cant be fooled.

About the fares, it depends on where you originate. JAL make a ton of money selling AY flights with their code on it to unsuspecting Japanese customers, and its not cheap. On the other hand, if you originate in Western Europe and you know your way around the OTAs, you will find flights for less than 500 EUR on a regular basis, simply because AY need to fill their seats. The same flight departing half an hour earlier but on JAL metal can easily cost 50% more and if you consider only the fare portion, its double. Thats how people end up on those AY flights.

I take these AY flights only if the schedule doesnt allow me to take a JAL flight, the fare is dirt cheap, I get miles and have my OW Sapphire lounge access. AY isnt earning a dime on me and they re not very profitable overall.

Why is it that in this forum people get their rocks off by bashing each others ideas I understand some don't make sense but why is it so important to shoot down ideas rather than looking for positive facts that just may make a route work.

DobboDobbo wrote:

MAN is expected to be, roughly, the 18th busiest airport in Europe. Here is a list of smaller airports in Europe with direct links to Tokyo: Oslo, Düsseldorf, Vienna, Brussels, Helsinki, Warsaw (Milan as well but that is an unusual situation).

Is MAN-TYO possible? Absolutely.

Except size of the cities/airports is not the only thing in the world.

DUS - Large Japanese presence, both in business and people.
VIE - Actually no flights right now, with the flight restarting in May 2018. By OS and in addition to probable tourism demand to the region, tons of connection available also
BRU - Technically the most similar to MAN, even then, it's still both an O&D flight and another possible connection flight via Brussels Airlines.
HEL - Mentioned many times already - it's connection and also all the tourism demand filling the back (Mainly Japanese wanting to see Aurora)
WAW - SA hub with LO, and god knows whether LO is making money on this route or not. A fair amount of connection to the Central/Eastern Europe region, though.

As for OSL & ARN - ARN used to have an SK flight to NRT, but that didn't work out. There's a flight to CPH as it's the main hub for SK for Asia <-> Europe connecting pax (For ARN is HKG only on SK, CPH has PEK, PVG, and NRT).

The thing that's definitely working against MAN is that the route would be pure O&D, and nothing else. No logical connection on MAN side that cannot be fly through other airports already (i.e. LHR), and no logical connection on NRT side outside of to/from the rest of Japan.

zakuivcustom wrote:

Except size of the cities/airports is not the only thing in the world.

DUS - Large Japanese presence, both in business and people.
VIE - Actually no flights right now, with the flight restarting in May 2018. By OS and in addition to probable tourism demand to the region, tons of connection available also
BRU - Technically the most similar to MAN, even then, it's still both an O&D flight and another possible connection flight via Brussels Airlines.
HEL - Mentioned many times already - it's connection and also all the tourism demand filling the back (Mainly Japanese wanting to see Aurora)
WAW - SA hub with LO, and god knows whether LO is making money on this route or not. A fair amount of connection to the Central/Eastern Europe region, though.

As for OSL & ARN - ARN used to have an SK flight to NRT, but that didn't work out. There's a flight to CPH as it's the main hub for SK for Asia <-> Europe connecting pax (For ARN is HKG only on SK, CPH has PEK, PVG, and NRT).

The thing that's definitely working against MAN is that the route would be pure O&D, and nothing else. No logical connection on MAN side that cannot be fly through other airports already (i.e. LHR), and no logical connection on NRT side outside of to/from the rest of Japan.

All valid points, but as has been noted above MAN too has a lot going for it. Not saying it'll happen, but it's definitely a possibility.

The thing that's definitely working against MAN is that the route would be pure O&D, and nothing else. No logical connection on MAN side that cannot be fly through other airports already (i.e. LHR), and no logical connection on NRT side outside of to/from the rest of Japan.

Actually on the UK side, they could use flybe to connect onto more domestic UK routes than Heathrow can offer, just like SQ/SX/VS/WY/EY and EK do. Actually provides a good source of pax. Could also provide an alternative entry to Ireland too.

On the Japan side, could provide feed to a few routes, I hear Nagoya actually has a surprisingly decent flow via HEL ex-MAN (I have no idea what the market attraction is). They could also be an alternative to ICN which is seeing large pax and cargo flows at the moment (I actually see a potential ICN route before TYO from MAN based on data I've seen).

User001 wrote:

The thing that's definitely working against MAN is that the route would be pure O&D, and nothing else. No logical connection on MAN side that cannot be fly through other airports already (i.e. LHR), and no logical connection on NRT side outside of to/from the rest of Japan.

Actually on the UK side, they could use flybe to connect onto more domestic UK routes than Heathrow can offer, just like SQ/SX/VS/WY/EY and EK do. Actually provides a good source of pax. Could also provide an alternative entry to Ireland too.

On the Japan side, could provide feed to a few routes, I hear Nagoya actually has a surprisingly decent flow via HEL ex-MAN (I have no idea what the market attraction is). They could also be an alternative to ICN which is seeing large pax and cargo flows at the moment (I actually see a potential ICN route before TYO from MAN based on data I've seen).

Not sure about MAN-NGO either. Only thing that came up on a quick Google search was Brother Industries (Yes, the Printer/Office Supplies company), which is HQ in Nagoya and has their European office in Manchester. But we all know one company in general won't sustain that much traffic. No automotive industries that I can see, either (Toyota UK is in Derbyshire, closer to EMA; then there's Denso, which is HQ in Hertshire and have their main plant outside Birmingham).

For connection - I guess the only problem is most of MAN UK destinations are to the South Coast. Of course, for the true UK airport, it's across the Channel in AMS (Pretty sure KL gets quite a bit of those Japan <-> UK smaller places traffic next to AY).

P.S. Looking through JCCI directory, Manchester representation is certainly sad. https://www.jcci.org.uk/EN/Directory.aspx

For connection - I guess the only problem is most of MAN UK destinations are to the South Coast. Of course, for the true UK airport, it's across the Channel in AMS (Pretty sure KL gets quite a bit of those Japan <-> UK smaller places traffic next to AY).

To the North and West there is BHD/BFS/NOC/EDI/GLA/ABZ/INV/IOM. It’s not all to the south. Then links to EXT/NQY/SOU where those 3 don’t have direct links to LHR and could potentially connect to a MAN flight quicker than a drive/train to LHR.

Like I say, I don’t think a TYO flight is imminent, but It’s all about changing perceptions, MAN is not some small tin shed in a field like people seem to believe. It’s not all low yield either, with some strong J cabins as well as EK selling a healthy number of F seats on their A380s too....

PHX?

User001 wrote:

For connection - I guess the only problem is most of MAN UK destinations are to the South Coast. Of course, for the true UK airport, it's across the Channel in AMS (Pretty sure KL gets quite a bit of those Japan <-> UK smaller places traffic next to AY).

To the North and West there is BHD/BFS/NOC/EDI/GLA/ABZ/INV/IOM. It’s not all to the south. Then links to EXT/NQY/SOU where those 3 don’t have direct links to LHR and could potentially connect to a MAN flight quicker than a drive/train to LHR.

Like I say, I don’t think a TYO flight is imminent, but It’s all about changing perceptions, MAN is not some small tin shed in a field like people seem to believe. It’s not all low yield either, with some strong J cabins as well as EK selling a healthy number of F seats on their A380s too....

I'm certainly not Waterbomber and think MAN is some rural farming area .

The thing is, sometimes it's not just about how big a city (or region) is, two things that makes non-stop long-haul possible are either personal/business tie, or geography. Let say, why EK can fill their flight to/from MAN? DXB is a pretty good geographic hub for Europe <-> India or Australia traffic. MAN demand to India is definitely much bigger than Japan, and the Australia traffic can easily fill the front/rest of the back. Why does CX to HKG work? VFR and students traffic. But you don't even see OZ/KE at MAN, why? B/c Korean presence in the area is just not that big.

If anything that will help TYO-MAN, it'll definitely be business. It can make it work to certain extent, but yeah, not imminent is definitely right.

Lennundus wrote:

PHX?

I don't see it on JL personally. If anyone will fly it, it'll be AA (with JL codeshare, of course).

On the other hand, haven't you heard from all the a.nutter that the AA (Oneworld) hub at PHX will be gone soon?

Airline reps don't normally make a habit of turning up at airports they have little intention of serving in the short to medium term yet there have been quite a few occasions when Japanese reps have been seen at MAN.

Won't it be funny if OZ/KE announce a MAN route sooner than the ultra cautious Japanese carriers despite a so-called lack of market and no reports of their reps being seen ?

Oh, you may not have realised that prior to CX starting, they were not the market leader for MAN-HKG... it was EK. Yet EK's numbers keep on rising. If it were all down to VFR/student traffic, wouldn't CX prefer that type of traffic (typically after the cheaper tickets) to route on other carriers so leaving them to concentrate on higher yielding passengers? Nearly everyone on this forum cast doubt on MAN-HKG saying it may work on A350s yet they started on 77Ws. The forecast 100,000 pax per year became a 134,000 passenger reality. Now we are in for daily services. Oh and then throw in the more than useful cargo capacity. Never ever underestimate what a route may do at MAN if you do it properly.

To me the gaping hole in the JAL network is IAD. How the capital city of the US with a huge OW frequent flyer base is not currently served by JAL is a question that continues to baffle me. I know ANA has the connections with Star Alliance and the UA hub in IAD, but I am not sure how much connecting traffic ANA actually attracts in IAD. To me IAD would seem a no brainer.

apodino wrote:

To me the gaping hole in the JAL network is IAD. How the capital city of the US with a huge OW frequent flyer base is not currently served by JAL is a question that continues to baffle me. I know ANA has the connections with Star Alliance and the UA hub in IAD, but I am not sure how much connecting traffic ANA actually attracts in IAD. To me IAD would seem a no brainer.

the OW base much prefers DCA, so they will connect via ORD/DFW to a multitude of Asian destinations. With 2X daily IAD NRT I'd be surprised if a 3rd flight could be sustained. remember that JL at NRT offers virtually no connections to smaller markets, those are all at HND

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

apodino wrote:

To me the gaping hole in the JAL network is IAD. How the capital city of the US with a huge OW frequent flyer base is not currently served by JAL is a question that continues to baffle me. I know ANA has the connections with Star Alliance and the UA hub in IAD, but I am not sure how much connecting traffic ANA actually attracts in IAD. To me IAD would seem a no brainer.

the OW base much prefers DCA, so they will connect via ORD/DFW to a multitude of Asian destinations. With 2X daily IAD NRT I'd be surprised if a 3rd flight could be sustained. remember that JL at NRT offers virtually no connections to smaller markets, those are all at HND

JL do have some connection at NRT (Mostly to China and SE Asia, but also some Japanese destinations via Jetstar Japan codeshare). But international traffic-wise, the only 3 JL "exclusive" destinations from NRT are HAN, KHH, and PUS. HAN can be done for NH with VN, and KHH with BR. That left PUS, but that can be easily connect through KE's IAD-ICN service.

Then on the flip side, AA has almost zero logical connection from IAD itself, which means the traffic are pure O&D. I'm sure that 2 777s from NH and UA are more than enough to carry those.

I personally see JL trying 788 to PHL before they will go into IAD. Even PHL is a long-shot, though, as most connection that can be made at PHL can also be made at either JFK or ORD.

I see MIA as very unlikely. I see little affinity there, and few incremental connections that DFW doesn't provide.

JAL must travel along the lines of AA strength to large demand centers. PHL is most promising in that regard.

CLE, PIT, IND, BNA, DTW, of course.