What will be interesting is to see when the first B77W gets scrapped. Thus far, none have been scrapped as the demand for those frames remains high, but JL has the prototype and it's 15 years old.
The first 77Ws are in service for a little less than 14 years now. I expect the first frames to be scrapped once larger numbers are being returned to lessors by EK and SQ, a sizable number of A350-1000s is flying, and the 777X is in the air. 2019/2020 seems a good guess for the first 77Ws to be "converted" into low-tech items. I expect the 77W to have a similar fate as the early 777s experience now. Once large numbers of replacements are in service, around 2025, many will be scrapped at a young age. There are just far too many to be taken over by the second-hand market.
Sadly, I agree. As great a plane as the 77W (and it is was already), it needs an economical path to a 777-300ERBCF (or other conversion). It will take 'cheap enough stock' to overcome the added conversion costs.
I compare this to the 737NG conversion to freighters. That market had a slow start, due to high resale value of the frames. Put enough 787, A350s, and 779s into service, and eventually even the part out price of a 77W will drop enough to make them attractive freight conversions (as finally happened with the A330).
It will be interesting to see what happens to the 777s, in particular the 77Ws. Sadly for 77Es, they are worth a bunch as parts donors. Once there is enough of a flood into the market, and 2025 is as good a time estimate as any, there will be scrappings until the price drops enough to convert to freighters. This will force Boeing to develop the 778 based freighter.
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.