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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:29 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Planesmart wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Even current A380 operators like QF on record saying two 787 make more money.

The QF quote is cute. Two 787's, on one route that would support a single A380 - very much doubt two would be more profitable than one. Two routes, where neither could support an A380, those two 787 would definitely make more dollars....


I don't know the context of QF CEO's statement. This is similar to SQ's one-off comment about never making a profit on ULH routes in 9 years with no details or further explanation.

Emirates by over advertising A380 cabin comfort created a problem of its own. Now they cannot have a mix of A380 and 77W to the same station with the same paxex. Educated passengers always A380 and they don't have the money to redo all 77Ws with new cabins.


Does the average passenger even know the difference? Most people look at timings for flights over aircraft type. Moreover, EK pricing is very smart - they price the better timed/ better aircraft flights higher.
 
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par13del
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:31 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
Airbus also built a U.S. assembly plant at a record high Euro as a weigh of hedging from the ever increasing currency, but they bet wrong there too. However, the Mobile plant has potentially contributed to winning big orders from U.S. airlines that they wouldn't have won otherwise.
You win some, you lose some.

How do you explain US Airways before the merger being one of the largest operators of Airbus a/c in the world at the time, Northwest being one of the largest operator of A330 a/c at the time, all the hundreds of Airbus narrow body a/c operated by United, Jet Blue and Frontier all prior to the plant in Mobile being built or even thought about?
In my opinion, the USA have by their history shown that they were buying and would continue to buy Airbus a/c whether they had a USA plant or not. I think it was more about currency hedging and possible PR, after all, based on the hundreds of Airbus a/c recently ordered by the USA airlines, a very small percentage will be assembled in the USA by a plant that at max currently planned operation is between 40 and 50 a/c per year, not per month per year, see Airbus link below. If it was done to win the tanker contract it was even more of a poor decision, since they would be committing resources for a minimal number of frames, the fact that they lost the tanker contract but continued the plant for civilian frames shows where the major drive was for its creation, the civilian market which they funded themselves along with any incentives from the state, not the Federal government as was expected with the tanker contract.
http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-re ... ility.html

My main reason for this post is because a lot of responses in threads follow this type of incorrect logic, so in this thread about A380's we already have a number of post about the A380 not reaching its potential because USA carriers have it blacklisted because it is an Airbus product, USA carriers are non-functional because international carriers can operate multiple A380's into the USA but they cannot do likewise, it essentially means we have discussions about theories and results whose foundations we know are incorrect.
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:53 pm

par13del wrote:
will be assembled in the USA by a plant that at max currently planned operation is between 40 and 50 a/c per year, not per month per year, see Airbus link below.


Final capacity of one FAL lines is 8/month.
Spending overvalued € in the $ domain was good investment. foot in the door and such.
US workers don't seem to perform worse than Chinese workers.
My guess every workplace created in Mobile ( or any other FAL line abroad ) creates another 9 worldwide.

With the current FAL lines set up Airbus can go to 64 / month.
Bunching too much workforce demand into one place makes things more difficult and expensive.
Especially for High Value stuff transporting parts across the globe from one small to medium sized
center of excellence to another is more efficient than sucking qualified workers from the surrounding
aread in a 200m radius. You will have to spend more on wages and workers have to spend more on
travel or expensive housing.
Murphy is an optimist
 
aaexecplat
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:58 pm

PerfectGriffin wrote:
Does the average passenger even know the difference? Most people look at timings for flights over aircraft type. Moreover, EK pricing is very smart - they price the better timed/ better aircraft flights higher.

I read this quote here often and I don't think people could be more wrong if they think the average pax doesn't know or notice the difference between an A380 and another commercial widebody. The average consumer is MUCH savvier than folks give them credit for here. Simply because many of us here are avgeeks doesn't mean the rest of the flying public is clueless. If you have ever flown on an A380, you will know the difference and by now, lots of pax have flown this terrific aircraft. Why do you guys think airlines advertise when routes are operated by A380s, A350s or 787s? Because they know that the equipment can have an impact on bookings and yields....
 
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par13del
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:06 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
Why do you guys think airlines advertise when routes are operated by A380s, A350s or 787s? Because they know that the equipment can have an impact on bookings and yields....

...so the reason why Airbus is struggling to sell additional A380's to airlines that know their customers want to fly on the A380 is down to the airlines not hearing their customer request and not viewing their computerized booking systems?
Methnks it is not that simple.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:14 pm

On a more general note...reading this news makes me sad. As someone who has flown the A380 with multiple airlines in both J and Y, I can confidently say that it is the most comfortable aircraft I have ever flown across the board. The aircraft always seems amazingly spacious even in the cheap seats, is whisper quiet and flies ultra smoothly through turbulence. For this aircraft to disappear from the commercial aviation landscape is a loss for passengers and will (in time) be understood as such. I understand the economic reasons why the A380 has lost favor with the majority of its operators and I obviously accept them.

It is really too bad that EK decided to require an unreasonable demand to make a deal happen. It is my personal opinion that Airbus is not bluffing here. Without EK, the A380 line has no viability, so Airbus is negotiating through the press here. But the message (I suspect) is sincere...no more EK orders...no more A380. I happen to think that EK is more reliant on the A380 than Airbus is reliant on it or EK (especially after recently announced order patterns), so either EK gives in on their (effectively) 20 year production guarantee demand or Airbus shuts down the line gradually. It really is that simple.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:14 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
PerfectGriffin wrote:
Does the average passenger even know the difference? Most people look at timings for flights over aircraft type. Moreover, EK pricing is very smart - they price the better timed/ better aircraft flights higher.

I read this quote here often and I don't think people could be more wrong if they think the average pax doesn't know or notice the difference between an A380 and another commercial widebody. The average consumer is MUCH savvier than folks give them credit for here. Simply because many of us here are avgeeks doesn't mean the rest of the flying public is clueless. If you have ever flown on an A380, you will know the difference and by now, lots of pax have flown this terrific aircraft. Why do you guys think airlines advertise when routes are operated by A380s, A350s or 787s? Because they know that the equipment can have an impact on bookings and yields....


And yet Emirates, the A380 poster boy airline, was near the 1st to pioneer the 10-abreast 777... by your theory, the contrast in comfort between a 10-abreast A380 and a 10-abreast 777 would have caused bookings and yields of the latter to plummet, yet from the massive 777X order they put down, this does not seem to be the case...
 
aaexecplat
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:17 pm

par13del wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
Why do you guys think airlines advertise when routes are operated by A380s, A350s or 787s? Because they know that the equipment can have an impact on bookings and yields....

...so the reason why Airbus is struggling to sell additional A380's to airlines that know their customers want to fly on the A380 is down to the airlines not hearing their customer request and not viewing their computerized booking systems?
Methnks it is not that simple.


No. You are making a false equivalency. Just because customers care and know what airplane they fly, doesn't mean the customers determine the airplane the airlines fly. Airplanes are bought by airlines to meet their specific fleet requirements which is different for virtually any airline due to economics (pax loads, yields, routes, staff, stage length etc etc). Once the airlines have decided on the optimal mix, pax have a choice. And once pax have a choice, advertising matters.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:19 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
PerfectGriffin wrote:
Does the average passenger even know the difference? Most people look at timings for flights over aircraft type. Moreover, EK pricing is very smart - they price the better timed/ better aircraft flights higher.

I read this quote here often and I don't think people could be more wrong if they think the average pax doesn't know or notice the difference between an A380 and another commercial widebody. The average consumer is MUCH savvier than folks give them credit for here. Simply because many of us here are avgeeks doesn't mean the rest of the flying public is clueless. If you have ever flown on an A380, you will know the difference and by now, lots of pax have flown this terrific aircraft. Why do you guys think airlines advertise when routes are operated by A380s, A350s or 787s? Because they know that the equipment can have an impact on bookings and yields....


And yet Emirates, the A380 poster boy airline, was near the 1st to pioneer the 10-abreast 777... by your theory, the contrast in comfort between a 10-abreast A380 and a 10-abreast 777 would have caused bookings and yields of the latter to plummet, yet from the massive 777X order they put down, this does not seem to be the case...


You are making the same false equivalency error the preceding poster did. Read my explanation. Customers don't dictate to airlines what airplanes they purchase.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:22 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
PerfectGriffin wrote:
Does the average passenger even know the difference? Most people look at timings for flights over aircraft type. Moreover, EK pricing is very smart - they price the better timed/ better aircraft flights higher.

I read this quote here often and I don't think people could be more wrong if they think the average pax doesn't know or notice the difference between an A380 and another commercial widebody.


Also timing beyond "morning or evening" means very, very little when considering day-long trips halfway round the globe - which is where most A380s "just happen" to be deployed...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:27 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
And yet Emirates, the A380 poster boy airline, was near the 1st to pioneer the 10-abreast 777... by your theory, the contrast in comfort between a 10-abreast A380 and a 10-abreast 777 would have caused bookings and yields of the latter to plummet, yet from the massive 777X order they put down, this does not seem to be the case...


logical error.
Few routes served by both types. It is either or.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Bricktop
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:30 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
WIederling wrote:
This is the wrong view imho.
They don't "prefer" they are forced.

It is the customers demanding multiple daily options to fit their schedule. So the airlines are being forced. This is why the A300 didn't get a NEO and airlines keeping increasing frequency by adding more narrow bodies.

The world market is much bigger now. Lets say hypothetically that 12 daily flights would see all customers being satisfied with various flight options throughout the day. If a route was so thick that it had 20 daily 737's or A320 flights then this could be upgauged to 12 MOM flights while still leaving the paying passengers completely happy.

These routes represent a very large fleet of narrowbody aircraft. So lots of gates made available.

Some people want a centrally planned world. Do we need 40 different non-stop flights on 5 airlines going from JFK to LAX every day? Maybe a government run airline with a dozen A380s is a better idea. Oh wait, if that schedule was mandated Boeing would make 748s again because ya know, MAGA! Lucky for us, we don't have to tug at our forelock when we want to go somewhere when we want to, even if it means no US3 A380s.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:37 pm

douwd20 wrote:
Had there been no EK the program would have been cancelled long ago.

This is a simplistic point of view. The traffic demand is there, with or without EK. If there would be no EK, other airlines connecting Europe with Asia would have larger A380-fleets.
 
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Polot
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:45 pm

WIederling wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Airlines prefer frequency. Having smaller aircraft flights every few hours has many benefits over one big aircraft doing one flight per day.

This is the wrong view imho.
They don't "prefer" they are forced.

Airlines in the US have been raised in a bottle.
There is no viable path towards larger units.
The first airline that swaps over to larger units will loose market share
and opens itself up to selective rule changes for a larger type.

It shows that "the market fixes anything towards efficiency" is an oxymoron.
See why animals don't have wheels. no viable evolutionary path.

You are contradicting yourself in the same post.

First you say passengers don't prefer frequency but rather they are forced into it.
Then you say the airline that swaps over to larger units will loose market share... which implies that passengers are not interested in it.

The reality is passengers don't look at "frequency." They look to see what flight schedule best matches their own schedule (after things like price, which even then has limits). Most could not care less if that is the only flight that the airline offers on that route or if the airline has 7 other flight times. Airlines, in turn, offer more frequency because it is throwing out a wider net and increasing the likelihood that their flight offering matches the passenger's wants better than the competition.

That is how frequency develop. It is not like it use to be all one/two flights a day and then suddenly someone decided to bump it up to 10+. Airlines increased frequency over time to better match customer demand, and other airlines matched to compete.

The US domestic market has nothing to do with why the US3 don't have A380s though. They don't have A380s (and minimal 77Ws, and now no 747s) because they have multiple international hubs. So they can grow by adding new international flights at a different hub, upgauging various international flights at various hubs, and/or by changing how they route connecting passengers (via pricing) to free up more space on specific flights for local traffic.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:58 pm

And many single aisle routes have reached a frequency of service that provides no yield advantage any more. So growth comes through bigger planes (see A321 market share) and the MoM will dig into that.

A380 work in a similar way, but on longhaul there are not that many pairs of destinations that have reached the point when a frequency increase provides no advantage.
 
Aither
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:36 pm

seahawk wrote:
And many single aisle routes have reached a frequency of service that provides no yield advantage any more. So growth comes through bigger planes (see A321 market share) and the MoM will dig into that.

A380 work in a similar way, but on longhaul there are not that many pairs of destinations that have reached the point when a frequency increase provides no advantage.


Many city pairs that matter for the A380 have reached the point when a frequency increases provide no advantage (basically 2 daily is enough for most). But many of these routes are not growing any more, even decreasing, because of the competition from Emirates or Chinese airlines. As I said before, EK was probably not a chance for the A380, quite the opposite in fact.

On the side topic of the MoM although I see the logic you should not forget that adding another type of aircraft in a fleet must justified by more than replacing some flights on a handful of high density, typically short haul routes.
Never trust the obvious
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:48 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
This is also the biggest part of the narrowbody market as this high frequency requires a lot of aircraft. 80% of the narrowbody aircraft are used flying only 20% of the most thickest routes.



Are there stats somewhere that back up this claim?
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:48 pm

Polot wrote:
You are contradicting yourself in the same post.


No.
What I wrote is that market interaction does not allow to break out of "faster, pussycat, faster" competition mode
without regulating assistance. But it would be more efficient.

frequency mode could be useful if you have a fully distributed demand model.
But you don't have that. Travel times are grouped.
Valid over all ranges ( for slightly different reasons.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:51 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
It is really too bad that EK decided to require an unreasonable demand to make a deal happen. It is my personal opinion that Airbus is not bluffing here. Without EK, the A380 line has no viability, so Airbus is negotiating through the press here. But the message (I suspect) is sincere...no more EK orders...no more A380. I happen to think that EK is more reliant on the A380 than Airbus is reliant on it or EK (especially after recently announced order patterns), so either EK gives in on their (effectively) 20 year production guarantee demand or Airbus shuts down the line gradually. It really is that simple.

Which in turn means (a) EK over-reached by asking for 20 year production span with "copper-bottomed guarantees" and a "massive upgrade" and will walk back the demands or (b) EK also wants out of the A380 program and is using the unreasonable demands to force Airbus to administer the coup de gras. It seems (a) is the most likely, but then it begs the question of why EK made such unreasonable demands and how are they going to walk back their demands.
The gun is NOT a precious symbol of freedom
It is a deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence
 
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Polot
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
It is really too bad that EK decided to require an unreasonable demand to make a deal happen. It is my personal opinion that Airbus is not bluffing here. Without EK, the A380 line has no viability, so Airbus is negotiating through the press here. But the message (I suspect) is sincere...no more EK orders...no more A380. I happen to think that EK is more reliant on the A380 than Airbus is reliant on it or EK (especially after recently announced order patterns), so either EK gives in on their (effectively) 20 year production guarantee demand or Airbus shuts down the line gradually. It really is that simple.

Which in turn means (a) EK over-reached by asking for 20 year production span with "copper-bottomed guarantees" and a "massive upgrade" and will walk back the demands or (b) EK also wants out of the A380 program and is using the unreasonable demands to force Airbus to administer the coup de gras. It seems (a) is the most likely, but then it begs the question of why EK made such unreasonable demands and how are they going to walk back their demands.

To be honest it wouldn't surprise me if EK (or more specifically, its Dubai overlords) was one of those airlines/entities that benefited from Airbus's use of questionable middlemen tactics to mollify concerns EK (the ones actually running the airline, not the Dubai owners) may have had. Now that those middlemen are apparently out of the picture....
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:56 pm

seahawk wrote:
And many single aisle routes have reached a frequency of service that provides no yield advantage any more. So growth comes through bigger planes (see A321 market share) and the MoM will dig into that.

A380 work in a similar way, but on longhaul there are not that many pairs of destinations that have reached the point when a frequency increase provides no advantage.


On many long haul routes frequency does not provide any advantage. There are curfews, banks and only certain departure or arrival times attractive. That is why long haul frames often stand around to hit a certain time slot. You often see two frames leaving short after each other on those routes instead of spreading out the frequency.

If The A380 is an ME3 or Emirates centered frame, the next down in size, the 777-9, is a ME3 or Emirates centered frame too.

We do not need to talk about short haul on an A380 it will never be used on short haul, but under exceptional circumstances.

I do not see the A380 as dead yet, Emirates will order the next batch and a few additional A380 will go to other airlines.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:05 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And many single aisle routes have reached a frequency of service that provides no yield advantage any more. So growth comes through bigger planes (see A321 market share) and the MoM will dig into that.

A380 work in a similar way, but on longhaul there are not that many pairs of destinations that have reached the point when a frequency increase provides no advantage.


On many long haul routes frequency does not provide any advantage. There are curfews, banks and only certain departure or arrival times attractive. That is why long haul frames often stand around to hit a certain time slot. You often see two frames leaving short after each other on those routes instead of spreading out the frequency.

Unless of course you can make more money running two 787-9s tail to tail rather than one A380, as QF's CEO tells us he can do.
The gun is NOT a precious symbol of freedom
It is a deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence
 
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par13del
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:07 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
You are making the same false equivalency error the preceding poster did. Read my explanation. Customers don't dictate to airlines what airplanes they purchase.

Customers have buying power, airlines cater to customers who buy their tickets, if customers were booking away from other a/c towards the A380 in significant enough numbers the airlines would deploy or purchase more A380's.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:08 pm

par13del wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
You are making the same false equivalency error the preceding poster did. Read my explanation. Customers don't dictate to airlines what airplanes they purchase.

Customers have buying power, airlines cater to customers who buy their tickets, if customers were booking away from other a/c towards the A380 in significant enough numbers the airlines would deploy or purchase more A380's.

Indeed. Whether we like it or not, all airlines recognize the race to the bottom that is going on. Pretty much every airline is reducing pitch or adding an extra seat across wherever they can, and people are still buying tickets like mad. Book yourself on to A380 or other plush rides as much as you can, because the tsunami of bad options is coming and will take many years for it to bottom out and (hopefully) reverse.
The gun is NOT a precious symbol of freedom
It is a deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:49 pm

Aither wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And many single aisle routes have reached a frequency of service that provides no yield advantage any more. So growth comes through bigger planes (see A321 market share) and the MoM will dig into that.

A380 work in a similar way, but on longhaul there are not that many pairs of destinations that have reached the point when a frequency increase provides no advantage.


Many city pairs that matter for the A380 have reached the point when a frequency increases provide no advantage (basically 2 daily is enough for most). But many of these routes are not growing any more, even decreasing, because of the competition from Emirates or Chinese airlines. As I said before, EK was probably not a chance for the A380, quite the opposite in fact.

On the side topic of the MoM although I see the logic you should not forget that adding another type of aircraft in a fleet must justified by more than replacing some flights on a handful of high density, typically short haul routes.


But longhaul also has the option of opening new routes. You for example open routes from secondary cities in your country to the hubs in other countries, which usually will create a yield advantage as 1 stop connections are more popular than 2 stops. For short and medium haul city pairs this is very difficult. Imho the multiple hub strategy is the biggest enemy of the A380, but it is also the best to compete against the ME3. Because if you can not win on price you must win on travel time.
 
Egerton
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:40 pm

In the UK, the EK A380 is sought after and gains a premium on pricing. At dinner parties, customers speak of their experience, and the story gets around by word of mouth.
So I think the owners of EK should and will instruct their mouthpiece (the unfortunate Sir Tim Clark) to do a deal with Airbus. Loosing face anywhere is bad news, but not so bad for a Brit as for a Gulf national.
 
Arion640
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:15 pm

Egerton wrote:
In the UK, the EK A380 is sought after and gains a premium on pricing. At dinner parties, customers speak of their experience, and the story gets around by word of mouth.
So I think the owners of EK should and will instruct their mouthpiece (the unfortunate Sir Tim Clark) to do a deal with Airbus. Loosing face anywhere is bad news, but not so bad for a Brit as for a Gulf national.


In my company (based in the UK) the higher level managers love flying Emirates going east. Love the EK J product and love the A380. Wouldn't be surprised if this is a nationwide thing. My family also love EK and the Economy experience on the A380. Certainly a talked about thing here, same thing starting to happen in NZ when I was there I felt, the A380 only started appearing there in the last few years.

Someone above mentioned the A380 being a ME3 centred aircraft, it wasn't designed with that in mind.
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par13del
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:45 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Someone above mentioned the A380 being a ME3 centred aircraft, it wasn't designed with that in mind.

It may not have been but they seem to be the one who has found a way to use it to the full extent. EK is operating A380's to multiple secondary airports in the UK, but BA...
Wonder what gives.....
 
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cpd
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:55 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
par13del wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
Why do you guys think airlines advertise when routes are operated by A380s, A350s or 787s? Because they know that the equipment can have an impact on bookings and yields....

...so the reason why Airbus is struggling to sell additional A380's to airlines that know their customers want to fly on the A380 is down to the airlines not hearing their customer request and not viewing their computerized booking systems?
Methnks it is not that simple.


No. You are making a false equivalency. Just because customers care and know what airplane they fly, doesn't mean the customers determine the airplane the airlines fly. Airplanes are bought by airlines to meet their specific fleet requirements which is different for virtually any airline due to economics (pax loads, yields, routes, staff, stage length etc etc). Once the airlines have decided on the optimal mix, pax have a choice. And once pax have a choice, advertising matters.


Pretty sure I found the EK b777 to have more leg room than the A380 in economy class. The narrower seats were a non issue as I'm very lean anyway.

The others I flew with also did everything they could to fly the A380.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:43 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
Today a lot of people are saying that the A380 is useless. But in 10 years the parameters can change again and then everyone is going to wonder why Airbus shut the line down so prematurely.
That's what happened to the B757. Boeing could have kept the B757 line open, MAXed it and it would have been a huge success by now.


No, a 757 MAX would still have had a lot of trouble against the A321 on one side and the 787 on the other. And the core reason was outdated technology. The 757 is more maintenance-intensive than newer aircraft, heavier and draggier than newer aircraft that can carry a similar payload, and less capable of accommodating modern international premium products with its narrower cabin--which would be important in the narrow 4000-5000 nm range niche that a 757 MAX would serve.

This is relevant to the A380 because, once the A350-1000 and 777-9 are being delivered in volume, the A380 will be at a similar packaging and technology disadvantage. It was always optimized for a stretch that never happened and, just like the 757, is heavier and draggier than it needs to be to fight newer competition, even with fancy new engines.
 
a350lover
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:58 pm

Just curious.... what are the smallest cities regularly served by A380?
I believe out of EK's network maybe Mauritius, or Christchurch? Any others?
 
Planesmart
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
Which in turn means (a) EK over-reached by asking for 20 year production span with "copper-bottomed guarantees" and a "massive upgrade" and will walk back the demands or (b) EK also wants out of the A380 program and is using the unreasonable demands to force Airbus to administer the coup de gras. It seems (a) is the most likely, but then it begs the question of why EK made such unreasonable demands and how are they going to walk back their demands.

I think history will show the production guarantee is a pre-existing T&C on earlier large orders, and is linked to pro-rata buybacks, so not new. It's likely the value of the buybacks have been lowered, which in turn will have triggered financier nerves.

To maintain the status quo, EK could add approximately two years to new lease terms, or pay a higher final balloon payment, so still wriggle room if all parties (including financiers and engine makers) are willing.
 
Arion640
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:24 pm

par13del wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Someone above mentioned the A380 being a ME3 centred aircraft, it wasn't designed with that in mind.

It may not have been but they seem to be the one who has found a way to use it to the full extent. EK is operating A380's to multiple secondary airports in the UK, but BA...
Wonder what gives.....


In my mind I put it down to BA being owned by shareholders and the management must deliver.

EK on the other hand is owned by the Dubai Government who use EK as an economic catalyst, all profits get re-invested in the business. I'm a huge fan of Emirates, possibly my favourite airline to fly, but it's not run from a Profit producing point of view.
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Planesmart
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:27 pm

Arion640 wrote:
I'm a huge fan of Emirates, possibly my favourite airline to fly, but it's not run from a Profit producing point of view.

There are thousands of EK and IAG suppliers, contractors and service providers who would say both behave exactly the same. They are highly skilled and ruthless negotiators.
 
superjeff
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:30 pm

LupineChemist wrote:
EK and Airbus are playing chicken. Airbus needs the EK order to keep the 380 program going and EK needs the 380 for their business model. (They simply can't get that many seats in and out of London any other way, for example). Of course EK is trying to push Airbus to redeveloping more and Airbus is trying to push Emirates to a higher price by trying to make no deal a viable option.

.



Absolutely. if EK is happy with their A380's and want more, they'll eventually buy more; if not, this is an excuse for them to negotiate a trade off for A350's instead.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:34 pm

Slightly OT, other than EK, who else runs a double-daily (or more) between city pairs and which cities?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:41 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Some people want a centrally planned world. Do we need 40 different non-stop flights on 5 airlines going from JFK to LAX every day? Maybe a government run airline with a dozen A380s is a better idea.

I actually expect there to be fewer airlines in 20 years time with lots of mergers for this very reason.

It might be the US2 vs the ME2.

Aither wrote:
On the side topic of the MoM although I see the logic you should not forget that adding another type of aircraft in a fleet must justified by more than replacing some flights on a handful of high density, typically short haul routes.

The thickest routes consume the most number of narrow body aircraft. So the handful of high density short haul routes ends up being 1000+ aircraft.


hOMSaR wrote:
Are there stats somewhere that back up this claim?

Pareto's 80/20 rule. Its pretty much how this kind of thing distributes in real life.

I've manually looked at the US3 network and Australia's it matches perfectly.

mjoelnir wrote:
I do not see the A380 as dead yet, Emirates will order the next batch and a few additional A380 will go to other airlines.

I agree. It will get a NEO and keep selling. The worldwide passenger market is predicted to increase by 50% in the next 10 years. So A380 sales will pick up eventually. I expect an Asian carrier to pick up used A380's to prove the concept works and it will help when leasing new A380's as it proves they still have resale value.

If you look at Emirates its A380 routes they are all medium haul distance due to its central location. The A380 is carrying a huge amount of excess weight being designed for 8000nm. To London the A380's would be taking off very light with under 50% fuel load. If Emirates is dictating the requirements surely they would want Airbus to reduce range in exchange for increased CASM.

This is exactly what Boeing did with the 787-10, a simple stretch so range is reduced but it has the best CASM in the family. As much as the world doesnt need a bigger A380, a simple stretch of the A380 with no additional engineering for higher takeoff weights would work for Emirates. It would be cheaper than a new wing. This would make it a 7000nm range aircraft with improved CASM.

Obviously airlines like Qantas could not use it on its ULH routes but I doubt they will be reordering.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
This is exactly what Boeing did with the 787-10, a simple stretch so range is reduced but it has the best CASM in the family. As much as the world doesnt need a bigger A380, a simple stretch of the A380 with no additional engineering for higher takeoff weights would work for Emirates.


Airbus has previously rejected the stretch option on the basis that the potential sales do not justify the engineering expense. When there is still only one customer for whom the plane would work well, do you have any reason to think that has changed?
 
Arion640
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:33 pm

Planesmart wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I'm a huge fan of Emirates, possibly my favourite airline to fly, but it's not run from a Profit producing point of view.

There are thousands of EK and IAG suppliers, contractors and service providers who would say both behave exactly the same. They are highly skilled and ruthless negotiators.


Of course, if you can get something for cheaper it's a no brainer! Regardless if you are IAG or EK.

But EK certainly chose to spend more on product. Look at BA now, high density Business cabin, putting in slimline seats, Buy on board etc. While EK's product is a full meal on a two hour flight, business class chaffuers, just a generally better experience, VLA's flying into secondary airports, you must ask what business motives they have to do this?
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:48 pm

Arion640 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Someone above mentioned the A380 being a ME3 centred aircraft, it wasn't designed with that in mind.

It may not have been but they seem to be the one who has found a way to use it to the full extent. EK is operating A380's to multiple secondary airports in the UK, but BA...
Wonder what gives.....


In my mind I put it down to BA being owned by shareholders and the management must deliver.

EK on the other hand is owned by the Dubai Government who use EK as an economic catalyst, all profits get re-invested in the business. I'm a huge fan of Emirates, possibly my favourite airline to fly, but it's not run from a Profit producing point of view.

Agree. It was interesting to read STC and Bregier saying the A380's problems were because airlines weren't bold enough, when at the same time the only airline that felt comfortable investing heavily in the A380 really didn't need to be bold, all they had to do was convince one guy it was a good idea.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:00 pm

Planesmart wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I'm a huge fan of Emirates, possibly my favourite airline to fly, but it's not run from a Profit producing point of view.

There are thousands of EK and IAG suppliers, contractors and service providers who would say both behave exactly the same. They are highly skilled and ruthless negotiators.


Aren't they the same? From British Caledonian to Gulf Air to Sri Lankan to Emirates. If the rumors are true British passport guarantees a management position.
 
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DWC
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:53 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
If you agree that short haul (plus slot-gaming) is the real congestion driver, then you've conceded the point:
If congestion is a matter of short haul ops then the A380 is not a solution unless and until shorthaul regularly demands 800+ seats/flight.

The world has a lot of airport congestion already but very little demand for A380's.
Airlines based at congested hubs like HKG, HND, and the entire US eschew the A380.
The congestion rationale for the A380 is a joke.

I don't get why this gets to such simplitic simplicismus rationale & somewhat off topic.

1. I for one never said the A380 was THE sole solution, but a solution amongst others & deem Airbus has a point, obviously not one matching their wildest dreams. In a perfect information economy, all fairly efficient arframes have a role to play.

2. While bloated NBs & slot gaming to complicate matters, we are not talking of SHORT HAUL traffic, but LONG-HAUL, it is these that congest major international airports at peak hours, typically early morning & then again evenings. In fact some airports like ATL gave only one or two A380 gates, shunning whatever new comer. Most longhaul airline want to operate mornings or evernings, which are the preferred timings for both premium & cattle class Pax. Very few airlines have 4 landing/departure banks like EK - if at all.

Hope you see the economic pertinence of these two points.


lutfi wrote:
DWC wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:
Airport congestion is a matter of short-haul narrowbody ops;
there are dozens of solutions to that problem before you start flying A380's domestically.
For A380's to become the congestion solution, we'd need a fantastical level of traffic.
At that level it's cheaper to build new airports than to force everyone to fly a big, heavy VLA.

Laughable. Do you have any idea of what an airport costs at all ?
And the compounded building & running costs of all those you suggest be built ?
Do you have any idea of the cost to the environment & quality of life to neighbouring suburbs ?
Do you really think cities will embrace London's inefficient model of multiplying airports ?
.



Cities in Asia Pacific with multiple airports:
Tokyo
Osaka (3 - Kansai/ Itami/ Kobe)
Seoul
Shanghai
Taipei
Jakarta
Bangkok
PRD (Pearl River Delta - HK, Zhuhai/ CAN/ Macau/ Shenzhen all in a footprint smaller than LHR/LGW/STN/LTN)
Melbourne
Kuala Lumpur
Arguably Manila (CLK is closer to MNL than NRT is to TYO)
Beijing (opening 2019)
Sydney just announced will build one (2026 opening)

Frankly, it is only India that isn't building multiple airports - even though there has been discussion that BOM needs a second.


You are not serious, are you ? Seriously ?
How many airports does London have ? I've lost count. Five ? Six ?
All the cities you mention have one or two, perhaps three at most. None wants to go for more than 3 that I know, usually 2 max.
THAT WAS MY POINT WITH LONDON : too many airports, inefficient on a global scale ( compared to DXB, DOH or the new Istanbul airport )
I grant you that the combined Guangzhou, Shenzen, Macau, HK, Zhuhai are comparable to the Greater London area, but then not quite, as each have a rather captive market, unlike London, but ok, let's consider it for discussion sake.
And you forgot the one major city that has already four & wishing to expand them : Moscow.
Last edited by DWC on Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:15 am

seabosdca wrote:
Airbus has previously rejected the stretch option on the basis that the potential sales do not justify the engineering expense. When there is still only one customer for whom the plane would work well, do you have any reason to think that has changed?

I would think the goal would be to improve CASM of the A380 airframe by at least 5% to keep the A380 attractive. It needs a CASM advantage over the 787, 777 and A350 to justify the reduction in frequency.

It is cheaper to optimise the fuselage to suit the current large wing than to optimise/shrink the wing for the current fuselage.

A new lighter wing or big weight reduction will require a lot of time and money to achieve that same 5% CASM improvement. A simple stretch with no MTO increase would be a fraction of cost.

If Emirates can support the extra size then it is by far the best option. If it allows sufficient orders to maintain production rates that make a profit per frame then it is the best option. It will allow the A380 to survive until the world passenger growth reaches a level that the A380 becomes high in demand.

You should not look towards engines to give a CASM improvement as the same engine tech can be fitted to the competition as well.
 
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Dalavia
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:19 am

Bricktop wrote:
Slightly OT, other than EK, who else runs a double-daily (or more) between city pairs and which cities?


SQ runs double-daily A380 flights between SIN and SYD (plus a 77W flight).

When I have made bookings, the A380 flights usually seem to have a price premium on them.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:45 am

Every VLA fan keeps referring to LHR. Didn't LHR double NOx and Noise pollution fines last year.
 
VV
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:08 am

Let's see the reality.
Unless there is a very significant change in the trend, with or without Emirates' order, Airbus will have to prepare the phasing out of the A380 production.

Let's try to understand what phasing out a program means.
How long do you need to prepare such action, what's the lead time?
How much would the phasing out of a program cost?
Will the company need to take some charge to do so?
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:08 am

RJMAZ wrote:


mjoelnir wrote:
I do not see the A380 as dead yet, Emirates will order the next batch and a few additional A380 will go to other airlines.

I agree. It will get a NEO and keep selling. The worldwide passenger market is predicted to increase by 50% in the next 10 years. So A380 sales will pick up eventually. I expect an Asian carrier to pick up used A380's to prove the concept works and it will help when leasing new A380's as it proves they still have resale value.

If you look at Emirates its A380 routes they are all medium haul distance due to its central location. The A380 is carrying a huge amount of excess weight being designed for 8000nm. To London the A380's would be taking off very light with under 50% fuel load. If Emirates is dictating the requirements surely they would want Airbus to reduce range in exchange for increased CASM.

This is exactly what Boeing did with the 787-10, a simple stretch so range is reduced but it has the best CASM in the family. As much as the world doesnt need a bigger A380, a simple stretch of the A380 with no additional engineering for higher takeoff weights would work for Emirates. It would be cheaper than a new wing. This would make it a 7000nm range aircraft with improved CASM.

Obviously airlines like Qantas could not use it on its ULH routes but I doubt they will be reordering.

If EK's problem with the A380 is high CASM borne about by unnecessary structural weight for too little (relative) seats, they would have simply refurbished the A380 for 11-abreast. It'd save them the trouble of whining to Airbus for improvements, I suspect EK wants more trip cost reductions than any capacity increase.
 
Aither
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:15 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Aither wrote:
On the side topic of the MoM although I see the logic you should not forget that adding another type of aircraft in a fleet must justified by more than replacing some flights on a handful of high density, typically short haul routes.

The thickest routes consume the most number of narrow body aircraft. So the handful of high density short haul routes ends up being 1000+ aircraft.


I'm a bit skeptical about your figure but I don't have the data to contradict you.
The question is across how many different airlines you reach that 1000 ?. Thinking of the airline I know well yes we have high density routes but only a few and thinking all the single aisles would be replaced by MoM is a nonsense. You have big intraday variations of demand. Even for the peak departure times you have to consider that the return flight is often at a less demanded departure hour.
Never trust the obvious
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:04 am

seabosdca wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
Today a lot of people are saying that the A380 is useless. But in 10 years the parameters can change again and then everyone is going to wonder why Airbus shut the line down so prematurely.
That's what happened to the B757. Boeing could have kept the B757 line open, MAXed it and it would have been a huge success by now.


No, a 757 MAX would still have had a lot of trouble against the A321 on one side and the 787 on the other. And the core reason was outdated technology. The 757 is more maintenance-intensive than newer aircraft, heavier and draggier than newer aircraft that can carry a similar payload, and less capable of accommodating modern international premium products with its narrower cabin--which would be important in the narrow 4000-5000 nm range niche that a 757 MAX would serve.

This is relevant to the A380 because, once the A350-1000 and 777-9 are being delivered in volume, the A380 will be at a similar packaging and technology disadvantage. It was always optimized for a stretch that never happened and, just like the 757, is heavier and draggier than it needs to be to fight newer competition, even with fancy new engines.



Interesting that you mention that. What applies to the B757 and A380 apparently doesnt apply to the B779 for you.
The B737 is at its 5th round of updates and still seems to be very popular even if its original model would be considered old technology.
I dont see any technological advance made on the B737 series that couldnt have been applied to the B757.

The B752 airframe is not heavy by any standards and if it had been MAXed, would probably have shared the market with the A321 50/50 plus sold a significant amount of B753's.

Your argument doesnt hold water.
What killed the B757 is high oil prices at the time, higher oil price outlook and the relatively high fuel burn of the model owed to old engine technology.
Last edited by Waterbomber on Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Aither
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:05 am

seahawk wrote:
Aither wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And many single aisle routes have reached a frequency of service that provides no yield advantage any more. So growth comes through bigger planes (see A321 market share) and the MoM will dig into that.

A380 work in a similar way, but on longhaul there are not that many pairs of destinations that have reached the point when a frequency increase provides no advantage.


Many city pairs that matter for the A380 have reached the point when a frequency increases provide no advantage (basically 2 daily is enough for most). But many of these routes are not growing any more, even decreasing, because of the competition from Emirates or Chinese airlines. As I said before, EK was probably not a chance for the A380, quite the opposite in fact.
.


But longhaul also has the option of opening new routes. You for example open routes from secondary cities in your country to the hubs in other countries, which usually will create a yield advantage as 1 stop connections are more popular than 2 stops. For short and medium haul city pairs this is very difficult. Imho the multiple hub strategy is the biggest enemy of the A380, but it is also the best to compete against the ME3. Because if you can not win on price you must win on travel time.


I agree too many hubs on the market is bad for large aircraft - and the world, the environment etc.
But I disagree that the best way to compete against ME3 is airlines deciding for multiple hub strategies. In most cases one powerful hub is better than 2 or 3 weak hubs.

- First a hub needs to be from a market with a strong local demand & business traffic -> that's a huge limitation. The world is not like the US. And a non stop flight no longer guarantees you will get 80% of the local demand.

- With multiple hubs you fragment your feeding market and end up not having sufficient feed to open new routes to secondary cities. Therefore to many markets you end up offering 2 stops while the competition is offering one stop -> as you said, 2 stops is a no go. What you win on travel time for some local traffic you lose the opportunity to attract many O&Ds that need to connect. It's a trade off. If you don't have enough O&Ds and can't fly 5x weekly at least your local demand will not appreciate...

- Multiple hubs is not good for the economies of scale. You end up with smaller aircraft network wide having a higher seat cost. You also have less seats per aircraft at a very low marginal cost so your exposure to new competitors is higher. I regret that network planners still too often think in term of individual segments rather than network.

As you may agree it depends of each airline/market. But the almost all airlines around Europe & Asia that are really impacted by the ME3 can't do the multiple hub strategy and even if they could it's does not mean they should.
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