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airzona11
Posts: 865
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:05 pm

This seems like some good 'ole fashioned salesmanship.

Taking a step back, is it a bad thing if the A380 shuts down for Airbus? They aren't going to cede any market share because of it. All of the A380 customers have large established Airbus footprints and are loyal customers. Regardless if the A380 itself made money, the A380 as part of the Airbus offering has been huge in contributing to Airbus as a whole making money.

There really aren't that many slot restrictions worldwide. Airlines can use the ones they have for the foreseeable future. And go with the A35K if they want most capacity (among other A350s).

The largest A380 customer has what, 8 frequencies a day in LHR? That in itself is shooting the capacity over frequency argument. They are growing the reliever airports around London, and this is just an example. But the A380 only has really taken off for EK bc of the awesome location of DXB for connecting passengers. There really isnt a need anywhere else.

They sold billions of dollars worth, it is a great plane, why does it have to have 1000s of orders and 30 year run of production?

LTU1011 wrote:
A field day for the ones wishing it’s premature demise. The planes in service will surely be put to best use if Airbus indeed discontinues this imho formidable bird. I have witnessed the amount of gluttonous ridicule, ill will, outright hatred from self proclaimed experts and armchair execs alike as a long time lurker before I signed up. As a passenger I indeed book my flights preferably on the A380. I did so for my upcoming US trip. Heading back to FRA I could freely choose from which international hub in Florida Lufthansa serves - no TPA (A343) or MCO (744), clearly MIA was the logical choice. I‘m dreading the day the 779 sardine can 10 abreast serves the LAX trip...


Problem is that is not what the population of flyers does. If they did, there would no 10-abreast 777s and there would be A380s galore. Plus, no one is going to skip flying out of TPA to commute to MCO or MIA to get on the A380, besides an AvGeek. This argument is pure fantasy, not based on reality. The hyperbole of how bad the 777/787 is nonsense. The A380 is a great plane, loved my flight on it, but that is not how airlines compete. They want to get passengers from A to B for the lowest cost, if you want better comfort, they offer Y+, PY, J or F and they offer that regardless of the type flown.
 
N212R
Posts: 86
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:08 pm

mercure1 wrote:
...not sinking resources into a morbid program for sake of ego or prestige.


We shall whether the Ode to Euro Joy is still on the Airbus playlist.
 
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LTU1011
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:51 pm

Speaking strictly in terms of passenger experience, personal comfort, cabin noise level (lack thereof i.e noise) from my own history in Y/Y+ as a 6.5‘ tall guy. The gammut of less favorable reviews on the lauded 9 abreast 787 and 10 abreast triple7 on a number of platforms speak for themselves imho. Maybe not so tall people don’t care, I do.
If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable. - Seneca
 
Egerton
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:44 pm

Egerton wrote:
On the Rolls-Royce side of the A380, it is clear that the Trent has been Pip'd enough. RR is not going to look backwards as a means of moving forward. They are resourcing the UltraFan as its primary concept, together with multiple other secondary tech progress including the Advance core. The next large and step-changed RR engine for the future may be available for EIS by 2027 at the earliest, using the UltraFan concept with many other high tech changes.

There is no need for any step-change to replace the big selling large engines T1000 TEN (and T7000) or the TXWB before a 2027 EIS. But RR technological progress will continue as always, and when the commercial time is right that new tech will reach the production lines. By 2027 the new replacement for the 737 range, and the NEO for 787 and A350 will all be coming towards EIS.

By then GE and RR will have competing entries for each of these markets. GE's entry into these 2027 market is unknown, but they know it will need to be commercially competitive with RR, who by that time will have the lion's share of the large civil aero-engine market.



I believe that the A380 will need a CASM to compete with the 777-9 which has not yet flown, as suggested by Lightsaber. This implies the need a further generation of engine beyond the GE on the 777-9. This is likely to be the Rolls-Royce Ultrafan concept or its GE equivalent, which can not EIS before 2027. Therefore Airbus has 3 options:

1. Take a small annual loss or small negative cash flow for each of the 10 years up to 2027 by keeping the A380 ticking over, to retain the skills and learning curve.
2. Shut the A380 line, retaining all Airbus tooling, and purchase from every external supplier all of their tooling.
So retaining the ability to re-start production to catch the 2027 (or when ever) surge of A380 NEO deliveries.
3. Shut the A380 line and call it a day.

My guess is that option 3 is the most unlikely, and option 1 is the most likely.

In any event, the 777-9 meeting its contractual performance warranties (or not) has a bearing on these decisions. Hence unless option 3 gets the nod shortly, Airbus will defer its decision on options 1, 2 or 3 until an apparently successful 777-9 has been in service for a couple of years.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:20 am

I can't remember anyone not admiring the 380, and especially from a passenger point of view. But of course those of us criticizing the business case or the 800 being a shrink have proved proved mostly right. Then again most of us would choose a 380 over a 10 abreast 777 anytime we had the choice. These views are not incompatible nor does it require a subtle brain.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Aither
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:43 am

I don't think the A380 really needs CASM improvement. Before choosing a CASM you choose a cabin size and a range. You would decide to go for a totally different aircraft type if there is really a large CASM advantage. I don't see the 77X or A350s having a significant, if any, CASM advantage over the A380.

A380s are operated from hubs at peak hours. If you downsize the capacity there you downsize all your network. If you downsize your network you may end up with narrow body having higher costs per seats...

You also have to consider the competition : a large aircraft is a lot of extra seats at a very low marginal cost. This extra capacity can prevent for example long haul low costs to enter your market. This has an impact on revenues that can be worth 10 times any aerodynamics etc. improvements.
Never trust the obvious
 
UA444
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:35 am

I wonder if Airbus killing the 380 means the 747 gets thrown a lifeline.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:45 am

UA444 wrote:
I wonder if Airbus killing the 380 means the 747 gets thrown a lifeline.


The possibility of the passenger 747 getting a lifeline went up in smoke the day the 777X launched with an order from LH, the largest 747-8 customer.

If the 747 soldiers on it will be because of freighter orders, the possibility of which the A380 gave up many years ago.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:50 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I can't remember anyone not admiring the 380, and especially from a passenger point of view. But of course those of us criticizing the business case or the 800 being a shrink have proved proved mostly right. Then again most of us would choose a 380 over a 10 abreast 777 anytime we had the choice. These views are not incompatible nor does it require a subtle brain.

Spot on. I have been arguing the bad business case and design hubris from day 1, but it doesn't mean that I wouldn't prefer a more spacious flight experience.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ScottB
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:23 am

lightsaber wrote:
Even though I was working a competing project to the A380 (with Airbus, internal competition) at the time of A380 launch, I believe it is an excellent technical product that just didn't live up to its potential. Much is due to the delays imposed by the Catia 4/5 debacle. Without those delays, I am personally convinced FedEx and UPS would have taken their A380Fs and probably purchased more new builds. This would have improved economies of scale (in particular, for GP7200 PIPs as both selected that engine). With the A380F wingbox and gear strengthening, a stretch would have been almost certain.


Oddly, I think the CATIA debacle was something of a blessing in disguise in that the ramp-up of deliveries on the original schedule would have happened in the midst of the global financial crisis of the late aughts (planned deliveries had been 120 by the end of 2009). IMO that would have been problematic for several operators and we would have seen a rash of deferred or cancelled orders.

I'm not convinced at all that we would have seen much in the way of add-on orders from FX or 5X; only 5X ordered the 747-8F and that was almost certainly with heavy discounts from Boeing.

Egerton wrote:
I believe that the A380 will need a CASM to compete with the 777-9 which has not yet flown, as suggested by Lightsaber. This implies the need a further generation of engine beyond the GE on the 777-9. This is likely to be the Rolls-Royce Ultrafan concept or its GE equivalent, which can not EIS before 2027. Therefore Airbus has 3 options:

1. Take a small annual loss or small negative cash flow for each of the 10 years up to 2027 by keeping the A380 ticking over, to retain the skills and learning curve.
2. Shut the A380 line, retaining all Airbus tooling, and purchase from every external supplier all of their tooling.
So retaining the ability to re-start production to catch the 2027 (or when ever) surge of A380 NEO deliveries.
3. Shut the A380 line and call it a day.

My guess is that option 3 is the most unlikely, and option 1 is the most likely.


IMO option 1 is highly risky, though; it depends on RR hitting that date for the Ultrafan as well as Airbus getting incremental orders for the current version to keep the line moving. It's not even clear that an incrementally-improved A380neo can garner enough orders to earn back the development cost; history is not on its side. The A380's problem has never been that it is inefficient (it isn't!); rather, the gains in efficiency aren't quite enough to counter the capacity risk versus modern widebody twins. I don't think the A380neo ends up being efficient enough to change its competitive situation against the A350-1000/1100 or 777-9.

LTU1011 wrote:
Speaking strictly in terms of passenger experience, personal comfort, cabin noise level (lack thereof i.e noise) from my own history in Y/Y+ as a 6.5‘ tall guy. The gammut of less favorable reviews on the lauded 9 abreast 787 and 10 abreast triple7 on a number of platforms speak for themselves imho. Maybe not so tall people don’t care, I do.


But in the end passenger comfort boils down to how the airline chooses to configure the aircraft. If the airlines thought they'd make more money with their 787s, 777s, and A350s by not cramming in as many seats, they'd configure the seating to be less tight.

lightsaber wrote:
The underinvestment in transportation in Western countries has been staggering. Getting to the airport now takes far longer than a few decades ago. So airports closer to home are even more convenient.


But there are several reasons why infrastructure development in Western countries is so challenging. In a democracy where a vocal minority gets out the vote and a largely indifferent, even if mildly supportive majority does not, politicians aren't willing to risk getting thrown out in the next election. And customer behavior seems to show (with examples like LGA, LHR or the old DAL terminal) that location far outweighs a nice terminal for O&D traffic.
 
spacecookie
Posts: 190
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:42 am

airzona11 wrote:
This seems like some good 'ole fashioned salesmanship.

Taking a step back, is it a bad thing if the A380 shuts down for Airbus? They aren't going to cede any market share because of it. All of the A380 customers have large established Airbus footprints and are loyal customers. Regardless if the A380 itself made money, the A380 as part of the Airbus offering has been huge in contributing to Airbus as a whole making money.

There really aren't that many slot restrictions worldwide. Airlines can use the ones they have for the foreseeable future. And go with the A35K if they want most capacity (among other A350s).

The largest A380 customer has what, 8 frequencies a day in LHR? That in itself is shooting the capacity over frequency argument. They are growing the reliever airports around London, and this is just an example. But the A380 only has really taken off for EK bc of the awesome location of DXB for connecting passengers. There really isnt a need anywhere else.

They sold billions of dollars worth, it is a great plane, why does it have to have 1000s of orders and 30 year run of production?

LTU1011 wrote:
A field day for the ones wishing it’s premature demise. The planes in service will surely be put to best use if Airbus indeed discontinues this imho formidable bird. I have witnessed the amount of gluttonous ridicule, ill will, outright hatred from self proclaimed experts and armchair execs alike as a long time lurker before I signed up. As a passenger I indeed book my flights preferably on the A380. I did so for my upcoming US trip. Heading back to FRA I could freely choose from which international hub in Florida Lufthansa serves - no TPA (A343) or MCO (744), clearly MIA was the logical choice. I‘m dreading the day the 779 sardine can 10 abreast serves the LAX trip...


Problem is that is not what the population of flyers does. If they did, there would no 10-abreast 777s and there would be A380s galore. Plus, no one is going to skip flying out of TPA to commute to MCO or MIA to get on the A380, besides an AvGeek. This argument is pure fantasy, not based on reality. The hyperbole of how bad the 777/787 is nonsense. The A380 is a great plane, loved my flight on it, but that is not how airlines compete. They want to get passengers from A to B for the lowest cost, if you want better comfort, they offer Y+, PY, J or F and they offer that regardless of the type flown.

If they shut down the a380 line they will loose a lot of money !
They sold only how many 150-200 planes ?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:27 am

They already lost that money.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:38 am

UA444 wrote:
I wonder if Airbus killing the 380 means the 747 gets thrown a lifeline.



Nah, The Airbus 340 .... :-)
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:40 am

mxaxai wrote:
Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).

A380's two biggest customers, EK and SQ, have been big users of leasing for a long time. They find advantages in tax treatment and prefer a young fleet. The various players crowed that the aircraft would be paid for by the end of the leases so any 2nd leases would be profit. It's pretty clear they said that with the expectation of 2nd leases since of course the goal is to make lots of profit. So far the only data points we have (SQ's hand wired early A380s, MH's underutilized but up-to-date A380s) show that there is not a thriving market for second hand A380s.

In short, it's more about financing and (lack of) market appeal rather than the ability to last more than 12 years.

It's all about financing. We like to talk about efficiency and operations but one third of the cost of a flight is paying for the airframe. If your bank would much rather finance you two 787's or A350's instead of a single A380, guess what you're gonna buy?


The IATA says that buying and financing the airframe is 10% the cost of running and airline. I don't know where you got 30%, but I don't think that's right.
 
RalXWB
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:06 am

spacecookie wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
This seems like some good 'ole fashioned salesmanship.

Taking a step back, is it a bad thing if the A380 shuts down for Airbus? They aren't going to cede any market share because of it. All of the A380 customers have large established Airbus footprints and are loyal customers. Regardless if the A380 itself made money, the A380 as part of the Airbus offering has been huge in contributing to Airbus as a whole making money.

There really aren't that many slot restrictions worldwide. Airlines can use the ones they have for the foreseeable future. And go with the A35K if they want most capacity (among other A350s).

The largest A380 customer has what, 8 frequencies a day in LHR? That in itself is shooting the capacity over frequency argument. They are growing the reliever airports around London, and this is just an example. But the A380 only has really taken off for EK bc of the awesome location of DXB for connecting passengers. There really isnt a need anywhere else.

They sold billions of dollars worth, it is a great plane, why does it have to have 1000s of orders and 30 year run of production?

LTU1011 wrote:
A field day for the ones wishing it’s premature demise. The planes in service will surely be put to best use if Airbus indeed discontinues this imho formidable bird. I have witnessed the amount of gluttonous ridicule, ill will, outright hatred from self proclaimed experts and armchair execs alike as a long time lurker before I signed up. As a passenger I indeed book my flights preferably on the A380. I did so for my upcoming US trip. Heading back to FRA I could freely choose from which international hub in Florida Lufthansa serves - no TPA (A343) or MCO (744), clearly MIA was the logical choice. I‘m dreading the day the 779 sardine can 10 abreast serves the LAX trip...


Problem is that is not what the population of flyers does. If they did, there would no 10-abreast 777s and there would be A380s galore. Plus, no one is going to skip flying out of TPA to commute to MCO or MIA to get on the A380, besides an AvGeek. This argument is pure fantasy, not based on reality. The hyperbole of how bad the 777/787 is nonsense. The A380 is a great plane, loved my flight on it, but that is not how airlines compete. They want to get passengers from A to B for the lowest cost, if you want better comfort, they offer Y+, PY, J or F and they offer that regardless of the type flown.

If they shut down the a380 line they will loose a lot of money !
They sold only how many 150-200 planes ?


317...
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:07 am

spacecookie wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
This seems like some good 'ole fashioned salesmanship.

Taking a step back, is it a bad thing if the A380 shuts down for Airbus? They aren't going to cede any market share because of it. All of the A380 customers have large established Airbus footprints and are loyal customers. Regardless if the A380 itself made money, the A380 as part of the Airbus offering has been huge in contributing to Airbus as a whole making money.

There really aren't that many slot restrictions worldwide. Airlines can use the ones they have for the foreseeable future. And go with the A35K if they want most capacity (among other A350s).

The largest A380 customer has what, 8 frequencies a day in LHR? That in itself is shooting the capacity over frequency argument. They are growing the reliever airports around London, and this is just an example. But the A380 only has really taken off for EK bc of the awesome location of DXB for connecting passengers. There really isnt a need anywhere else.

They sold billions of dollars worth, it is a great plane, why does it have to have 1000s of orders and 30 year run of production?

LTU1011 wrote:
A field day for the ones wishing it’s premature demise. The planes in service will surely be put to best use if Airbus indeed discontinues this imho formidable bird. I have witnessed the amount of gluttonous ridicule, ill will, outright hatred from self proclaimed experts and armchair execs alike as a long time lurker before I signed up. As a passenger I indeed book my flights preferably on the A380. I did so for my upcoming US trip. Heading back to FRA I could freely choose from which international hub in Florida Lufthansa serves - no TPA (A343) or MCO (744), clearly MIA was the logical choice. I‘m dreading the day the 779 sardine can 10 abreast serves the LAX trip...


Problem is that is not what the population of flyers does. If they did, there would no 10-abreast 777s and there would be A380s galore. Plus, no one is going to skip flying out of TPA to commute to MCO or MIA to get on the A380, besides an AvGeek. This argument is pure fantasy, not based on reality. The hyperbole of how bad the 777/787 is nonsense. The A380 is a great plane, loved my flight on it, but that is not how airlines compete. They want to get passengers from A to B for the lowest cost, if you want better comfort, they offer Y+, PY, J or F and they offer that regardless of the type flown.

If they shut down the a380 line they will loose a lot of money !
They sold only how many 150-200 planes ?


All they're doing now is having the line tick over for a customer that is having second thoughts about ordering more. It's time to move on
 
grbauc
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:59 am

LTU1011 wrote:
A field day for the ones wishing it’s premature demise. The planes in service will surely be put to best use if Airbus indeed discontinues this imho formidable bird. I have witnessed the amount of gluttonous ridicule, ill will, outright hatred from self proclaimed experts and armchair execs alike as a long time lurker before I signed up. As a passenger I indeed book my flights preferably on the A380. I did so for my upcoming US trip. Heading back to FRA I could freely choose from which international hub in Florida Lufthansa serves - no TPA (A343) or MCO (744), clearly MIA was the logical choice. I‘m dreading the day the 779 sardine can 10 abreast serves the LAX trip...



Book PE or J seats lol. Economy on most airlines is not good just better on some then others at best. Just buy PE seat and your crying will cease. : )
 
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LTU1011
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:20 am

grbauc wrote:
Book PE or J seats lol. Economy on most airlines is not good just better on some then others at best. Just buy PE seat and your crying will cease. : )
yeah right as if I would not do so - company only pays Y or Y+ occasionally...
If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable. - Seneca
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:33 am

UA444 wrote:
I wonder if Airbus killing the 380 means the 747 gets thrown a lifeline.


Anything bigger than 787/A350 should just disappear for widebody market to settle down and LH/ULH operators can breathe easily.
 
Bald1983
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:10 pm

Slug71 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
LupineChemist wrote:

My point was more that they both need each other so I expect an order to happen sooner or later after they prod each other some more. It seems clear that EK needs the 380 more than Airbus needs to produce it, though. I just think the hyperbole people speak about it being a successful game changer aircraft or a complete financial failure are all overblown. In the end it's a great passenger passenger experience and a pretty underwhelming business case but not a catastrophe. But the main point being, Airbus will manufacture if they can make a marginal profit on each aircraft regardless of how much development costs they recover because they're not getting those back anyway.


I believe Emirates made a mistake investing so much in the A-380. The plane is not suited for profitable airline operations and there are smaller and more capable planes. The fact is, Emirates will account for almost half of ALL A-380's. That cannot be good for the A-380.


EK obviously disagree with you. They've been operating it quite profitably. No different than the 777X, of which EK account for about half the orders.


Has not been a net A-380 order since when? One other thing the Gulf airlines will be challenged with is the fact that longer range aircraft might maid it possible to overfly the gulf between Australia and Europe.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:24 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
Has not been a net A-380 order since when? One other thing the Gulf airlines will be challenged with is the fact that longer range aircraft might maid it possible to overfly the gulf between Australia and Europe.


I think hybrid electric power plants will shift sixth freedom hubs back to Europe. NIMBYs cannot complain about noise and air pollution and night time curfews will be history.

Looking at Airbus design redundant generators and n number electric motor driven fans will replace current hydrocarbon power plants. Quads may be history but we may even see planes with 12 small electric motors.
 
Planesmart
Posts: 2500
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:54 pm

ScottB wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Even though I was working a competing project to the A380 (with Airbus, internal competition) at the time of A380 launch, I believe it is an excellent technical product that just didn't live up to its potential. Much is due to the delays imposed by the Catia 4/5 debacle. Without those delays, I am personally convinced FedEx and UPS would have taken their A380Fs and probably purchased more new builds. This would have improved economies of scale (in particular, for GP7200 PIPs as both selected that engine). With the A380F wingbox and gear strengthening, a stretch would have been almost certain.


Oddly, I think the CATIA debacle was something of a blessing in disguise in that the ramp-up of deliveries on the original schedule would have happened in the midst of the global financial crisis of the late aughts (planned deliveries had been 120 by the end of 2009). IMO that would have been problematic for several operators and we would have seen a rash of deferred or cancelled orders.

Delays resulted in Airbus taking a softly softly approach to customer contracts. When they should have been firming, Airbus from necessity, maintained the status quo or 'softened', and awarded compensation as well. Airbus needed to retain 100% of customers and orders.

Boeing had similar 787 challenges, with two key differences. It happened at a different point of the global economic cycle, and Boeing had more customers and had accepted more orders than they could have fulfilled anyway (in the first few years of production). Boeing's error was they were too generous with contract rollovers and model hopping terms. Boeing didn't need to retain 100% of customers and orders, and certainly not to the point of rolling launch discounts to the 9 and 10.
 
Strato2
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:27 pm

ScottB wrote:

But in the end passenger comfort boils down to how the airline chooses to configure the aircraft. If the airlines thought they'd make more money with their 787s, 777s, and A350s by not cramming in as many seats, they'd configure the seating to be less tight.


Don't know if you're serious or joking when bunching the A350 with the 787 and 777. There is exactly one airline (Air Caraibes) that is cramming people in the A350 whereas there is exactly one airline that is NOT cramming people in the 787. The 777 is not much better nowadays with the avalanche of 10-abreast seating. To claim that this is just up to airline is very simplistic/convenient point of view. Boeing has designed their planes in full knowledge to anticipate these nasty seating arrangements would become prevalent. They have not just accidentally stumbled into these chosen cabin widths for the 787 and the 777. They are not that stupid.
 
grbauc
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:58 pm

LTU1011 wrote:
grbauc wrote:
Book PE or J seats lol. Economy on most airlines is not good just better on some then others at best. Just buy PE seat and your crying will cease. : )
yeah right as if I would not do so - company only pays Y or Y+ occasionally...


The 80's and 90's and even early 2000's are gone and I get issue but change in the way airlines run in the US was needed and the way and what we get from our purchase has changed. Sorry
 
Egerton
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:13 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Revelation wrote:
A380's two biggest customers, EK and SQ, have been big users of leasing for a long time. They find advantages in tax treatment and prefer a young fleet. The various players crowed that the aircraft would be paid for by the end of the leases so any 2nd leases would be profit. It's pretty clear they said that with the expectation of 2nd leases since of course the goal is to make lots of profit. So far the only data points we have (SQ's hand wired early A380s, MH's underutilized but up-to-date A380s) show that there is not a thriving market for second hand A380s.

In short, it's more about financing and (lack of) market appeal rather than the ability to last more than 12 years.

It's all about financing. We like to talk about efficiency and operations but one third of the cost of a flight is paying for the airframe. If your bank would much rather finance you two 787's or A350's instead of a single A380, guess what you're gonna buy?


The IATA says that buying and financing the airframe is 10% the cost of running and airline. I don't know where you got 30%, but I don't think that's right.


Well, IATA deals with averages. This implies that the required return on shareholders funds from say IAG at 15% will result in a much higher than the quoted 10% of the cost of running an airline.
 
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LTU1011
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:20 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Don't know if you're serious or joking when bunching the A350 with the 787 and 777. There is exactly one airline (Air Caraibes) that is cramming people in the A350 whereas there is exactly one airline that is NOT cramming people in the 787. The 777 is not much better nowadays with the avalanche of 10-abreast seating. To claim that this is just up to airline is very simplistic/convenient point of view. Boeing has designed their planes in full knowledge to anticipate these nasty seating arrangements would become prevalent. They have not just accidentally stumbled into these chosen cabin widths for the 787 and the 777. They are not that stupid.


Exactly what I meant. There are no „happy accidents“ when it comes to bean counting economics. This is deliberate and not by chance. Hence if can vote with my own funds or the ones given by the company and I book accordingly. Thank you Strato2 for pointing out the obvious.
If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable. - Seneca
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:08 am

Egerton wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
It's all about financing. We like to talk about efficiency and operations but one third of the cost of a flight is paying for the airframe. If your bank would much rather finance you two 787's or A350's instead of a single A380, guess what you're gonna buy?


The IATA says that buying and financing the airframe is 10% the cost of running and airline. I don't know where you got 30%, but I don't think that's right.


Well, IATA deals with averages. This implies that the required return on shareholders funds from say IAG at 15% will result in a much higher than the quoted 10% of the cost of running an airline.


Again, what you wrote makes no sense.

When you wrote "We like to talk about efficiency and operations but one third of the cost of a flight is paying for the airframe" that was an average. When I wrote "The IATA says that buying and financing the airframe is 10% the cost of running and airline." that was also an average.

When I wrote that the airframe acquisition costs are 10% of the airlines, I was writing about costs. If you want to mark up all costs (labor, fuel, etc) by some percentage to allow for a profit that's fine. But it will not effect their relative levels. It will still be 10% of the now marked up costs.

Again, you wrote that " but one third of the cost of a flight is paying for the airframe" but the IATA says its 10%. I'll believe them.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:10 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
I think hybrid electric power plants will shift sixth freedom hubs back to Europe. NIMBYs cannot complain about noise and air pollution and night time curfews will be history.


I fear you are sadly mistaken.

My impression is that planes have gotten much quieter, and complaints have gone up. Reducing noise does not seem to reduce complaints.
 
Bald1983
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:21 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
Has not been a net A-380 order since when? One other thing the Gulf airlines will be challenged with is the fact that longer range aircraft might maid it possible to overfly the gulf between Australia and Europe.


I think hybrid electric power plants will shift sixth freedom hubs back to Europe. NIMBYs cannot complain about noise and air pollution and night time curfews will be history.

Looking at Airbus design redundant generators and n number electric motor driven fans will replace current hydrocarbon power plants. Quads may be history but we may even see planes with 12 small electric motors.


Not for a long time. Batteries are heavy as are electric motors.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:52 am

Airbus won't kill the A380 now. Not for a few years at least. If air travel is to double by the mid 2030s (there are many sources that claim this), Airbus has a nice cushion right now to watch the market for a few/several years to see if those predictions are running positive. If not, kill it. But it'll be a lot cheaper to give the A380 a "massive" update than do a clean sheet. Which is what Boeing will have to do. The speed to market an update provides would allow even more time to study the market.
 
redroo
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:04 am

I used to be a big believer in the A380 but the more non stop routes I see the 787 and 350 open up the less I see a need for the 380.

There are always going to be some city pairs by virtue of distance and time zone that a big aircraft is warranted (HKG LHR) but I think the world is moving more to point to point or point to hub travel. The A380 struggles with this for everyone but EK.

The face that QF says they can fly two 787 for less than an A380 says something about the longevity of the A380.
 
Chemist
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:16 am

I have been reading Aviation Week for decades. I remember back in the late '90s there were a number of articles on the future of air transport and the decisions Boeing and Airbus were making about future aircraft. Boeing had the 747 and wanted to enlarge it, but Airbus wanted to build an even bigger jumbo. Airbus' projections were a much larger market for VLA than Boeing's projections. Airbus felt that passenger growth would require a lot of VLA to move large numbers of people hub to hub.

Boeing felt that if they enlarged the 747 AND Airbus built a new VLA, both programs would lose money. Boeing's projections for a much smaller VLA market was because they felt that the market would fragment and hub to hub flying would become less important.

In the end of course, Boeing went with the 787 which supported their fragmented model and Airbus with the A380 which supported their rosy projections about hub to hub flying. (Don't ask me why Boeing also ended up doing the 747-8 later).

It's been fascinating to watch it all play out. The A380 was built and was a marvel. The 787 was also a marvel but the program was all screwed up and so financially was set way backwards. Of course Airbus had a lot of early problems with custom wiring and delays in A380 ramp-up as well.

And here we are ~20 years later. The 787 has recovered (technically) from its problems and is doing quite well in sales, Boeing might even break even or make a profit on them. The A380 is also a technical marvel, but unforatunately it appears that the original Boeing projections were far closer to reality than the Airbus projections. This is also supported by the interesting statistic posted earlier in this thread that we have gone over the past decade or so from 10K city pairs in commercial aviation to over 20K city pairs.

IMHO the Airbus drive for the A380 was probably also clouded by some pride in wanting to "one-up" Boeing. It's easy to believe rosy scenarios when it provides a lot of pride and an ability to say "We build the biggest". But unfortunately that wasn't necessarily a good financial decision.
 
spacecookie
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:53 am

RalXWB wrote:
spacecookie wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
This seems like some good 'ole fashioned salesmanship.

Taking a step back, is it a bad thing if the A380 shuts down for Airbus? They aren't going to cede any market share because of it. All of the A380 customers have large established Airbus footprints and are loyal customers. Regardless if the A380 itself made money, the A380 as part of the Airbus offering has been huge in contributing to Airbus as a whole making money.

There really aren't that many slot restrictions worldwide. Airlines can use the ones they have for the foreseeable future. And go with the A35K if they want most capacity (among other A350s).

The largest A380 customer has what, 8 frequencies a day in LHR? That in itself is shooting the capacity over frequency argument. They are growing the reliever airports around London, and this is just an example. But the A380 only has really taken off for EK bc of the awesome location of DXB for connecting passengers. There really isnt a need anywhere else.

They sold billions of dollars worth, it is a great plane, why does it have to have 1000s of orders and 30 year run of production?



Problem is that is not what the population of flyers does. If they did, there would no 10-abreast 777s and there would be A380s galore. Plus, no one is going to skip flying out of TPA to commute to MCO or MIA to get on the A380, besides an AvGeek. This argument is pure fantasy, not based on reality. The hyperbole of how bad the 777/787 is nonsense. The A380 is a great plane, loved my flight on it, but that is not how airlines compete. They want to get passengers from A to B for the lowest cost, if you want better comfort, they offer Y+, PY, J or F and they offer that regardless of the type flown.

If they shut down the a380 line they will loose a lot of money !
They sold only how many 150-200 planes ?


317...

Where do you get these numbers ?
http://www.abcdlist.nl/a380f/a380f.html

B747 has mire than 1500 unuts build, airbus made the wrong decision going for an vla
The a380 will never payout, the eu taxpayer will pay for it.
Its not the first time airbus makes non sense planes like the a340-300 hairdryer.
 
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:01 am

redroo wrote:
I used to be a big believer in the A380 but the more non stop routes I see the 787 and 350 open up the less I see a need for the 380.

There are always going to be some city pairs by virtue of distance and time zone that a big aircraft is warranted (HKG LHR) but I think the world is moving more to point to point or point to hub travel. The A380 struggles with this for everyone but EK.

The face that QF says they can fly two 787 for less than an A380 says something about the longevity of the A380.


I think that one of the keys to the A380/747-8 problem is that back in the day of the 744 they were often purchased for their range, not the seating capacity. Simply if you wanted to fly a long way you had to buy a 747, it was also true to a lesser extent with the 742. Now you have many options where you have the same or more range using a smaller more efficient aircraft. Now the A380/747 are only purchased for capacity and perhaps prestige in the case of some airlines. This has reduced their market drastically and I can't see that changing for a long time if ever. With ground transportation getting more congestion the appeal of avoiding departing from major airports makes this even worse for the VLA.
SSC-707B727 737-741234SP757/762/3/772/WA300/10/319/2/1-342/3/6-880-DAM-VC10 TRD 111 Ju52-DC8/9/10/11-YS11-748-VCV DH4B L
 
Egerton
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:33 am

kitplane01 wrote:
Egerton wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

The IATA says that buying and financing the airframe is 10% the cost of running and airline. I don't know where you got 30%, but I don't think that's right.


Well, IATA deals with averages. This implies that the required return on shareholders funds from say IAG at 15% will result in a much higher than the quoted 10% of the cost of running an airline.


Again, what you wrote makes no sense.

When you wrote "We like to talk about efficiency and operations but one third of the cost of a flight is paying for the airframe" that was an average. When I wrote "The IATA says that buying and financing the airframe is 10% the cost of running and airline." that was also an average.

When I wrote that the airframe acquisition costs are 10% of the airlines, I was writing about costs. If you want to mark up all costs (labor, fuel, etc) by some percentage to allow for a profit that's fine. But it will not effect their relative levels. It will still be 10% of the now marked up costs.

Again, you wrote that " but one third of the cost of a flight is paying for the airframe" but the IATA says its 10%. I'll believe them.


Please be kind enough to read this again, perhaps noting WHO SAID WHAT?
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:46 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
Has not been a net A-380 order since when? One other thing the Gulf airlines will be challenged with is the fact that longer range aircraft might maid it possible to overfly the gulf between Australia and Europe.


I think hybrid electric power plants will shift sixth freedom hubs back to Europe. NIMBYs cannot complain about noise and air pollution and night time curfews will be history.


In your dreams!
NIMBYs will feel polluted ( by noise and what not )
as long as they can see the plane flying overhead. ( or maybe even not that.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:23 am

The death of the A380 has been declared here on A.net already several times. There are a few frames still to be delivered, about the same number as 747-8i sold altogether and that means discounting all shaky orders. 41 emirates birds, 3 ANA, 1 Qatar and 5 Singapore. That are 50 frames still to be delivered. So even if no further frames are ordered, it will take a few years for death to occur.
 
marcelh
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:49 am

Chemist wrote:
In the end of course, Boeing went with the 787 which supported their fragmented model ......


In my opinion the B787 isn't the point-to-point game changer yet. The vast majority of the flights are hub-to-hub or hub-to-spoke. It's primarily used as a replacement for older planes (North America, Europe, Japan, Australia) or to fill up the demand of the upcoming markets (Africa, Middle East and Asia).
 
parapente
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:50 am

The historians with their unique advantage of 20:20 hindsight will write the definitive history of the VLA quads.But it's demise wasn't so obvious at the time.
People rightly point to the VLA's range as a key early advantage but I am not so sure that the launch of the 773er has yet to be given it's true key place in history as the aircraft that rang the death bell.It has of course been superseded by 787's,350's and soon 779's but all follow its footsteps.
When the CEO of Qantas points out that a fully loaded 787 is as profitable a a fully loaded 380 then you know you're in trouble!
Luck - we all need (and get) it.The difficult trick is recognising it when it's there!
Which is why I will be surprised (if it happens) if it is Emirates who twists the final knife.
Over €10bn was invested in an aircraft that when it finally came out was not needed-except for one novel airline with a unique positioning (in every sense).For them this aircraft might as well have been tailor made - just for them! 10bn just for them and even then the ability to buy them at rock bottom prices.OK they might have (had?) to pay a little more leasing costs on the last batch but overall...They should recognise luck when it's there!
 
SteelChair
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:37 pm

marcelh wrote:
Chemist wrote:
In the end of course, Boeing went with the 787 which supported their fragmented model ......


In my opinion the B787 isn't the point-to-point game changer yet. The vast majority of the flights are hub-to-hub or hub-to-spoke. It's primarily used as a replacement for older planes (North America, Europe, Japan, Australia) or to fill up the demand of the upcoming markets (Africa, Middle East and Asia).


Agree completely. Boeing used thay same marketing hype for the 767 USA to Europe 30 years ago, and many of the 767 Atlantic point to point markets have disappeared. Customers continually want more choices at a cheaper price and that can best be provided by hubs.

It has always seemed ironic to me that Boeing marketed the 787 as a point to point Pacific airplane at the same time that their point to pont Atlantic airplane was failing and being redeployed to hubs.
 
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Polot
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:20 pm

Boeing (and Airbus) are not trying to define/control anything. Point to point and hub to hub is just marketing to get them in the news. Neither Boeing nor Airbus really care how the airline uses the plane as long as the checks clear.
 
astuteman
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:00 pm

spacecookie wrote:
The a380 will never payout, the eu taxpayer will pay for it.


Er, I don't think so.
The VAST majority of the huge sum of money ($20Bn?) spent on the A380 came from revenue generated by sales of the A320 (and to a lesser extent the A330).
What little was loaned by EU governments ($3.4Bn) is repayable, and much, if not most, of it has already been repaid.
So, enough of the "EU taxpayer" nonsense, if you please
 
SC430
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:04 pm

redroo wrote:
I used to be a big believer in the A380 but the more non stop routes I see the 787 and 350 open up the less I see a need for the 380.

There are always going to be some city pairs by virtue of distance and time zone that a big aircraft is warranted (HKG LHR) but I think the world is moving more to point to point or point to hub travel. The A380 struggles with this for everyone but EK.

The face that QF says they can fly two 787 for less than an A380 says something about the longevity of the A380.


The A380 supporters at Airbus, Amedeo etc like to point to the expected rise in air travel as support for this failed program. But there is a gaping hole in the logic. In general the seat count is increasing across the board. Thousands of planes are produced every year with more seats than the aircraft they replaced. Does it matter if the added seat is on a narrow body, mid-sized widebody, or a VLA?
 
marcelh
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:21 pm

Polot wrote:
Boeing (and Airbus) are not trying to define/control anything. Point to point and hub to hub is just marketing to get them in the news. Neither Boeing nor Airbus really care how the airline uses the plane as long as the checks clear.


A lot of people here won't agree with you. The "true believers" think that either Airbus or Boeing is right. I think they're both partially right. The B787 (especially the -8) has given the opportunity to open point-to-point flights. The A380 on the other hand is a hub-to-hub people mover, just as EK is doing quite well.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:01 pm

P2P, Hubs, and my favorite - 1Stop really are metaphors and any particular plane flight could be all three. How do the analysts at airlines see all of this.

We need a MOM to cross the Atlantic, ironically joining the 737, 320, 757, 767, 330, 340(?), 777, 747, and the 380, plus the updates of all of these. (no wonder the Atlantic is heating up)
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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DDR
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:06 pm

No. There is no business case for the A380 (great aircraft btw) in the US. I think everyone who has any knowledge of the airline industry would have to admit that the US has more flights than any other nation. Certain German posters will never admit this, but whatever. The A380 is simply too large for US carriers.

For other airlines (EK, LH, AF) the A380 is a great aircraft. Problem is, there aren't enough airlines that can use the aircraft.

Like the Concorde, the A380 is a niche aircraft. It's time has come to an end.
 
Chemist
Posts: 168
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:32 pm

marcelh wrote:
Chemist wrote:
In the end of course, Boeing went with the 787 which supported their fragmented model ......


In my opinion the B787 isn't the point-to-point game changer yet. The vast majority of the flights are hub-to-hub or hub-to-spoke. It's primarily used as a replacement for older planes (North America, Europe, Japan, Australia) or to fill up the demand of the upcoming markets (Africa, Middle East and Asia).


Perhaps the better way to look at it is that Airbus envisioned a much stronger "concentration" model of larger aircraft, and Boeing envisioned a more "dispersed" model of numerous routes of lower capacity. And it seems that the latter situation is becoming much stronger in the market, rather than the former.
Last edited by Chemist on Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:38 pm

Balerit wrote:
Boeing controls the American market and had a few US airlines purchased the A380 it would have been a different story.


I don't think they bought any 748i either. Have you really not been reading the news and this forum - tons of Airbus planes just bought over here!
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Mortyman
Posts: 4905
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:53 pm

List of busiest passenger air routes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_b ... air_routes
 
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Jayafe
Posts: 758
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:12 pm

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:05 pm

DDR wrote:
I think everyone who has any knowledge of the airline industry would have to admit that the US has more flights than any other nation.


Peer pressure? Quotation needed, but I am guessing your are going to find yourself in a very ridiculous place when checking the data...
PS: I’m not German
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