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Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:25 pm
by william
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... EL11L?il=0

Do not know if this is an Airbus trial balloon or there is truth to this.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:29 pm
by ro1960
So if Airbus phases the A380 out, with what will EK replace it once they have retired them all?

Reuters: Airbus to axe the A380 program if no order from Emirates

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:31 pm
by dubaiamman243
According to some sources from Airbus, the company is putting up plans to axe the A380 program if it doesn't get any order from the largest A380 operator, Emirates.

" “If there is no Emirates deal, Airbus will start the process of ending A380 production,” a person briefed on the plans said. A supplier added such a move was logical due to weak demand."

Airbus will be closing the line gradually as it manufactures the last planes it have in hand, mainly from Emirates. At the current production rate, the line will be open for the next decade.
According to the article, Airbus and Emirates are back to negotiations.

"A decision to cancel would mark a rupture between Airbus and one of its largest customers and tie Emirates’ future growth to recent Boeing orders. European sources say that reflects growing American influence in the Gulf under President Donald Trump, but U.S. and UAE industry sources deny politics are involved."

"If Airbus does decide to wind down production, some believe Emirates will ask Airbus to deliver the remaining 41 it has on order and then keep most A380s in service as long as possible."

Will Emirates order some more A380s to keep the program alive? or will Emirates just let it go?

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... e=facebook

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:39 pm
by william
ro1960 wrote:
So if Airbus phases the A380 out, with what will EK replace it once they have retired them all?


777-9s and or A350-1000 or mythical 1100.

I wander if Emirates gave the A350 a 100 plus order instead of an A380 follow up order would Airbus not be giddy and more profitable.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:42 pm
by jeffrey0032j
ro1960 wrote:
So if Airbus phases the A380 out, with what will EK replace it once they have retired them all?

747-10 MAX LR.

On a serious note, it would likely to be a next generation Large Twin, maybe a A350neo as a minimum, that should fit in the timeline that we are looking at.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:42 pm
by ericm2031
777-9’s and potentially a 777x-10/350-1100

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:42 pm
by Arion640
I think we'll see the last EK order then potentially game over sadly.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:46 pm
by Bricktop
They are only stating the obvious, even though it ostensibly gives hand to EK. (Seinfeld reference ;))

william wrote:
ro1960 wrote:
So if Airbus phases the A380 out, with what will EK replace it once they have retired them all?


777-9s and or A350-1000 or mythical 1100.

I wander if Emirates gave the A350 a 100 plus order instead of an A380 follow up order would Airbus not be giddy and more profitable.

Abso-frigging-lutely! That would be a MASSIVE coup for Airbus.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:47 pm
by frmrCapCadet
I suspect that a 380 could fly for a long time, some airlines have used planes for 25 years. Is there any reason why a 380 could not do the same? 12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:48 pm
by william
Airbus can make the production line last for ten years with a 100 unit order from Emirates at 8 a year. However, its not the only thing Emirates wants, they want an improved A380 which is not worth Airbus's ROI at 8 a year.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:51 pm
by 777PHX
Makes good business sense.

If the A380 is effectively dead, it's time to start devoting resources to better uses. They still have a duty to their shareholders to do what is best for the company and if that is abandoning a product that is no longer viable and is a drain, then so be it.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:54 pm
by Arion640
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I suspect that a 380 could fly for a long time, some airlines have used planes for 25 years. Is there any reason why a 380 could not do the same? 12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).


They can probably go the longest out of most airliners, cycle's will be racked up at a lower rate compared to short range airliners.

BA have said their 777's will see 30 years of service, I wouldn't be surprised if they push the A380's to do the same thing. No reason why aircraft can't fly this long if properly maintained.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:56 pm
by Revelation
william wrote:
Do not know if this is an Airbus trial balloon or there is truth to this.

Seems like Airbus went away and played through several rounds of game theory and came up with their next move.

Either that or it's just simple logic: EK makes a bunch of demands that Airbus feels are untenable (and given them an almighty snub in the process) and they know EK's biggest worry is the end of A380 production, so they start leaking the idea that their next move is to just phase out the A380. Airbus can use all their executive level churn to make EK feel like there is a real possibility that Airbus is serious about it.

Time for popcorn, says I.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:00 pm
by LupineChemist
EK and Airbus are playing chicken. Airbus needs the EK order to keep the 380 program going and EK needs the 380 for their business model. (They simply can't get that many seats in and out of London any other way, for example). Of course EK is trying to push Airbus to redeveloping more and Airbus is trying to push Emirates to a higher price by trying to make no deal a viable option.

In the end, the 380 will continue for a long time filling a very niche role rolling very slowly out of TLS with marginal improvements that will maybe sell a few more but will now just mostly be replacement of older frames. The 380 serves a certain market segment very well, it's just nowhere near the market Airbus hoped for. But I think calling it an all out failure is also probably overblown. There's a good chance the 748 would have really gotten some orders and keeping Boeing from getting all that money they could route into developing a new airframe is definitely worth something.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:04 pm
by Revelation
frmrCapCadet wrote:
12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).

A380's two biggest customers, EK and SQ, have been big users of leasing for a long time. They find advantages in tax treatment and prefer a young fleet. The various players crowed that the aircraft would be paid for by the end of the leases so any 2nd leases would be profit. It's pretty clear they said that with the expectation of 2nd leases since of course the goal is to make lots of profit. So far the only data points we have (SQ's hand wired early A380s, MH's underutilized but up-to-date A380s) show that there is not a thriving market for second hand A380s.

In short, it's more about financing and (lack of) market appeal rather than the ability to last more than 12 years.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:07 pm
by BlueSky1976
Just let this ugly thing die and make more money selling A350s.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:22 pm
by Revelation
LupineChemist wrote:
In the end, the 380 will continue for a long time filling a very niche role rolling very slowly out of TLS with marginal improvements that will maybe sell a few more but will now just mostly be replacement of older frames.

Probably best to avoid going back through the history, but then again, it's almost inevitable that we go through it all over again, time after time.

I doubt anyone would buy replacement frames if EK doesn't order any more. The financial community won't want to go near any A380 deals if its end is a foregone conclusion and if there's no aftermarket for it, which seems to be true already today. The economics are already marginal. Airbus has already shown with A380+ that they won't invest in it speculatively. All this adds up to death spiral.

The 779 will be the replacement of choice, IMHO. All the fliers of the big trunk routes already have 777s in their fleet or on order, and they all seem to be pretty satisfied with the product. There will be some hold outs but if Airbus kills the A380 now they'll give the 779 a lot of opportunities over the next decade or so.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:23 pm
by airfrnt
It's a good tact by Airbus. If Airbus ends the A380 program, EK and the leasing companies take a huge hit in terms of resale value of the (insanely huge) percentage of the overall A380 family that they have a financial interest in. It's like the old saying - if you own the bank money, you are in trouble, but if you owe the bank a lot of money, then they are in trouble.

People are begining to scramble to find usages for the A380 outside of traditional usages - but it is looking like Leeham was right - the secondary market is going to be really rough for the A380.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:25 pm
by william
LupineChemist wrote:
EK and Airbus are playing chicken. Airbus needs the EK order to keep the 380 program going and EK needs the 380 for their business model. (They simply can't get that many seats in and out of London any other way, for example). Of course EK is trying to push Airbus to redeveloping more and Airbus is trying to push Emirates to a higher price by trying to make no deal a viable option.

In the end, the 380 will continue for a long time filling a very niche role rolling very slowly out of TLS with marginal improvements that will maybe sell a few more but will now just mostly be replacement of older frames. The 380 serves a certain market segment very well, it's just nowhere near the market Airbus hoped for. But I think calling it an all out failure is also probably overblown. There's a good chance the 748 would have really gotten some orders and keeping Boeing from getting all that money they could route into developing a new airframe is definitely worth something.


Of course they are playing chicken and negotiating in the press. Revelation brings up a good point about the change in managament, and the new management may not be as enamored with the A380 as the past manage team was and may be imagining a more profitable Airbus without the A380 slow drain on profits. Does Airbus wants to cancel the A380? Of course not, for various reasons.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:32 pm
by geologyrocks
LupineChemist wrote:
There's a good chance the 748 would have really gotten some orders and keeping Boeing from getting all that money they could route into developing a new airframe is definitely worth something.


As worth as much as any other Pyrrhic victory.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:33 pm
by LupineChemist
william wrote:
Of course they are playing chicken and negotiating in the press. Revelation brings up a good point about the change in managament, and the new management may not be as enamored with the A380 as the past manage team was and may be imagining a more profitable Airbus without the A380 slow drain on profits. Does Airbus wants to cancel the A380? Of course not, for various reasons.


My point was more that they both need each other so I expect an order to happen sooner or later after they prod each other some more. It seems clear that EK needs the 380 more than Airbus needs to produce it, though. I just think the hyperbole people speak about it being a successful game changer aircraft or a complete financial failure are all overblown. In the end it's a great passenger passenger experience and a pretty underwhelming business case but not a catastrophe. But the main point being, Airbus will manufacture if they can make a marginal profit on each aircraft regardless of how much development costs they recover because they're not getting those back anyway.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:40 pm
by fsabo
LupineChemist wrote:
william wrote:
Of course they are playing chicken and negotiating in the press. Revelation brings up a good point about the change in managament, and the new management may not be as enamored with the A380 as the past manage team was and may be imagining a more profitable Airbus without the A380 slow drain on profits. Does Airbus wants to cancel the A380? Of course not, for various reasons.


My point was more that they both need each other so I expect an order to happen sooner or later after they prod each other some more. It seems clear that EK needs the 380 more than Airbus needs to produce it, though. I just think the hyperbole people speak about it being a successful game changer aircraft or a complete financial failure are all overblown. In the end it's a great passenger passenger experience and a pretty underwhelming business case but not a catastrophe. But the main point being, Airbus will manufacture if they can make a marginal profit on each aircraft regardless of how much development costs they recover because they're not getting those back anyway.


I agree with everything you said except that a deal will happen. It is just a gut feeling that they will not come to an agreement. It is a shame really; such a nice plane to be a passenger in.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:55 pm
by piedmontf284000
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I suspect that a 380 could fly for a long time, some airlines have used planes for 25 years. Is there any reason why a 380 could not do the same? 12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).


Is 25 years even possible? I don't much about fatigue or stress on aluminum alloys, but at some point, I have to wonder if something this massive can do repeated takeoff/landing cycles, fly at high altitudes in severe turbulence, and not be subjected to such stress and fatigue. I realize that all airplanes have the same issues, but the A380 is unlike any other plane ever built. I also realize that there were thousands of hours dedicated to testing the strength of fuselage, but there is just no physical way that any company/scientist/engineer can test for all the different usage variations that would occur day in and day out for these aircraft. I mean not to say that they are unsafe or unreliable, obviously they have proven otherwise, but they have only been flying for 12 years and to suggest another 12 is something I sincerely question. I guess time will tell.

With that said, I think Airbus relying solely on one customer for the continuation of the program is just playing with fire. There are to many risks attached with such a plan. The only thing I can think of, is that Airbus, by getting EK to commit to more A380's and move the program well into the next decade, figures that there might be potential for a new demand of the aircraft down the road with the net result meaning more customers in the future.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:57 pm
by DDR
Who can manufacture the best 450-500 seat long range twin? That would be an ideal replacement for the A380. And I don't mean turning a 777 into a slave ship.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:00 pm
by KarelXWB
Reuters' famous "sources familiar with the matter" do not add much news to the story, we all know future production depends on Emirates. No orders = no production. And even if Emirates orders those 36 additional A380s, it would just stretch production a little bit. A production stop is inevitable.

Revelation wrote:
Either that or it's just simple logic: EK makes a bunch of demands that Airbus feels are untenable (and given them an almighty snub in the process) and they know EK's biggest worry is the end of A380 production, so they start leaking the idea that their next move is to just phase out the A380. Airbus can use all their executive level churn to make EK feel like there is a real possibility that Airbus is serious about it.


According to Leeham, Emirates' demands an unrealistic production run of 10 years, starting from 2028:

But EK and the UAE wants a guarantee production will continue for 10 years if the order is place.

This seems like an easy task—if the starting point is “today.” The order, at the current production rate of 8/yr, would add to the current backlog, which ends around 2024.

Ten years from 2024 probably is doable, though challenging.

But LNC is told the starting date asked for begins at the end of the delivery of the new order (or from 2028-ish). Given the current demand, or lack of it, this is a huge “ask,” and one that couldn’t possibly be guaranteed.


New Airbus management is just around the corner and may have no problem axing A380 production. If Emirates wants more A380s, they'd better relax some of their demands.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:01 pm
by 9w748capt
Arion640 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I suspect that a 380 could fly for a long time, some airlines have used planes for 25 years. Is there any reason why a 380 could not do the same? 12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).


They can probably go the longest out of most airliners, cycle's will be racked up at a lower rate compared to short range airliners.

BA have said their 777's will see 30 years of service, I wouldn't be surprised if they push the A380's to do the same thing. No reason why aircraft can't fly this long if properly maintained.


Cycle's? Cycle's what?

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:04 pm
by ZaphodHarkonnen
Airbus just have to make sure they're not bluffing. If EK don't make another order they have to pull the trigger. Otherwise EK will have them over a barrel for years to come.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:07 pm
by Jayafe
One more hand: check/call/bet...

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:10 pm
by william
KarelXWB wrote:
Reuters' famous "sources familiar with the matter" do not add much news to the story, we all know future production depends on Emirates. No orders = no production. And even if Emirates orders those 36 additional A380s, it would just stretch production a little bit. A production stop is inevitable.

Revelation wrote:
Either that or it's just simple logic: EK makes a bunch of demands that Airbus feels are untenable (and given them an almighty snub in the process) and they know EK's biggest worry is the end of A380 production, so they start leaking the idea that their next move is to just phase out the A380. Airbus can use all their executive level churn to make EK feel like there is a real possibility that Airbus is serious about it.


According to Leeham, Emirates' demands an unrealistic production run of 10 years, starting from 2028:

But EK and the UAE wants a guarantee production will continue for 10 years if the order is place.

This seems like an easy task—if the starting point is “today.” The order, at the current production rate of 8/yr, would add to the current backlog, which ends around 2024.

Ten years from 2024 probably is doable, though challenging.

But LNC is told the starting date asked for begins at the end of the delivery of the new order (or from 2028-ish). Given the current demand, or lack of it, this is a huge “ask,” and one that couldn’t possibly be guaranteed.


New Airbus management is just around the corner and may have no problem axing A380 production. If Emirates wants more A380s, they'd better relax some of their demands.


WHAT!? starting from 2028 and ten years out!? I didn't know THAT was the timeline. No wander Airbus is seriously thinking about this, no way they can guarantee this. I wouldn't put my signature to such a contract.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:10 pm
by Bricktop
What if EK announced another +/- 30 options for the 777-9. or for some real shits and giggles make some strong PUBLIC hints to Boeing for a 777-10? In fairness, I don't think that the 777-10 would sell a whole lot different than the A380, but what little I have learned from game theory on a.net it makes me think that would shake things up.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:11 pm
by pabloeing
The A380 IS dead....no now.....5 years ago....when AF,LH and other airlines cancel orders...and QF,QR,etc....is not going to put more planes in his numbers....and airlines like VS not want his order.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:12 pm
by seahawk
Airbus is replacing their senior management, so the incoming team will want the A380 problem solved one way or the other. And at the moment ending the program seems to be the saver option.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:12 pm
by mxaxai
Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).

A380's two biggest customers, EK and SQ, have been big users of leasing for a long time. They find advantages in tax treatment and prefer a young fleet. The various players crowed that the aircraft would be paid for by the end of the leases so any 2nd leases would be profit. It's pretty clear they said that with the expectation of 2nd leases since of course the goal is to make lots of profit. So far the only data points we have (SQ's hand wired early A380s, MH's underutilized but up-to-date A380s) show that there is not a thriving market for second hand A380s.

In short, it's more about financing and (lack of) market appeal rather than the ability to last more than 12 years.

It's all about financing. We like to talk about efficiency and operations but one third of the cost of a flight is paying for the airframe. If your bank would much rather finance you two 787's or A350's instead of a single A380, guess what you're gonna buy?

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:15 pm
by jetblueguy22
piedmontf284000 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I suspect that a 380 could fly for a long time, some airlines have used planes for 25 years. Is there any reason why a 380 could not do the same? 12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).


Is 25 years even possible? I don't much about fatigue or stress on aluminum alloys, but at some point, I have to wonder if something this massive can do repeated takeoff/landing cycles, fly at high altitudes in severe turbulence, and not be subjected to such stress and fatigue. I realize that all airplanes have the same issues, but the A380 is unlike any other plane ever built. I also realize that there were thousands of hours dedicated to testing the strength of fuselage, but there is just no physical way that any company/scientist/engineer can test for all the different usage variations that would occur day in and day out for these aircraft. I mean not to say that they are unsafe or unreliable, obviously they have proven otherwise, but they have only been flying for 12 years and to suggest another 12 is something I sincerely question. I guess time will tell.

With that said, I think Airbus relying solely on one customer for the continuation of the program is just playing with fire. There are to many risks attached with such a plan. The only thing I can think of, is that Airbus, by getting EK to commit to more A380's and move the program well into the next decade, figures that there might be potential for a new demand of the aircraft down the road with the net result meaning more customers in the future.

What makes it like none other? The fact that it is big? There’s nothing specific to the A380 that would make it any more susceptible to extra fatigue than a 747/777/A330/A340. If anything I’d feel safer because the design is 30 years more mature than the 747.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:16 pm
by parapente
Something happened that morning at the Dubai air show.Two airline manufacturers were waiting in the wings to come on stage together for a double order.Something that (I believe) had never happened before.Then the Airbus exec's are told to withdraw.
It's the biggest slight imaginable.Why?
Because they wouldn't guarantee 10 years manufacturing?Nope, because (with this order) the CEO already had guaranteed that!So it's got nothing to do with that.In fact anybody can do the simple maths and see that it's true.Just a quickly made up excuse that doesn't hold a drop of water.
It's something completely different and I'm sure we will never know.Its above aircraft.
Then there are all the recent purchases from the state. 777/9/8,787/10,737max9/10. It tells a clear story doesn't it.If Right now they have become an all Boeing state.I am sure Boeing will build them a 777-10 when required.Twins are the future.
It's not the biggest of problems for Airbus it only brings forward the inevitable.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:21 pm
by dtw2hyd
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Airbus just have to make sure they're not bluffing. If EK don't make another order they have to pull the trigger. Otherwise EK will have them over a barrel for years to come.


They are not bluffing, they stopped funding development five years back. All they did for A380+ is 3D printed winglets and rearrange cabin for a static display. Just for the airshow, not to win a major contract.

Current management did all the groundwork to end the program, new management just needs to hammer in the last nail.

ME3 got used to pushing manufacturers around, both A & B enabled them, now paying the price. The first manufacturer stops drinking this kool-aid will do much better in the long run.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:28 pm
by dtw2hyd
KarelXWB wrote:
According to Leeham, Emirates' demands an unrealistic production run of 10 years, starting from 2028:


But EK and the UAE wants a guarantee production will continue for 10 years if the order is place.


Does it mean EK wants Airbus to maintain
2018-28 - 4.1/year and
2028-38 - 3.6/year

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:32 pm
by Revelation
DDR wrote:
Who can manufacture the best 450-500 seat long range twin? That would be an ideal replacement for the A380. And I don't mean turning a 777 into a slave ship.

Unfortunately we'll never know what would have happened if Airbus had developed a better four-engine VLA, so it will have to be big twins going forward for quite a while.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:35 pm
by dtw2hyd
Revelation wrote:
DDR wrote:
Who can manufacture the best 450-500 seat long range twin? That would be an ideal replacement for the A380. And I don't mean turning a 777 into a slave ship.

Unfortunately we'll never know what would have happened if Airbus had developed a better four-engine VLA, so it will have to be big twins going forward for quite a while.


I think the question on "real" airline execs mind is who can fill 500 seats without discounting ticket prices below cost.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:43 pm
by Revelation
Bricktop wrote:
What if EK announced another +/- 30 options for the 777-9. or for some real shits and giggles make some strong PUBLIC hints to Boeing for a 777-10? In fairness, I don't think that the 777-10 would sell a whole lot different than the A380, but what little I have learned from game theory on a.net it makes me think that would shake things up.

Indeed that would seem to be the next move. We should be seeing Tim and the Sheik and a huge entourage showing up in Seattle for the next 77W delivery, and a few kind words about the 777's future should be getting dropped, with perhaps more words being dropped as "background".

dtw2hyd wrote:
I think the question on "real" airline execs mind is who can fill 500 seats without discounting ticket prices below cost.

And yet Tim wants another 36, go figure...

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:49 pm
by beenalongtime
Just what the world needs for the New Year....yet another 'The A380 is dead' thread, with most digs unsurprisingly from the other side of the Atlantic.
The orders will come, and A380 is not in it's grave just yet.

Regards
b

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:56 pm
by Balerit
Sounds like another fake news story drummed up from the US to scare Airbus investors.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:59 pm
by WIederling
9w748capt wrote:
Cycle's? Cycle's what?


Start, Pressurization cycle, Landing. ~= one use cycle.

This is the primary aging mechanism for airliners.

You can swap out the engines or other items on a regular "life expectancy" basis.
But not the fuselage. Traditionally in a D check all aged fuselage parts are replaced.
Still the cost to keep the frame as "equivalent new" rises to prohibitive levels eventually. Scrapyard.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:01 pm
by dtw2hyd
Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
I think the question on "real" airline execs mind is who can fill 500 seats without discounting ticket prices below cost.

And yet Tim wants another 36, go figure...


There is no mystery there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcSTSHH ... .be&t=1920

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:03 pm
by fsabo
Revelation wrote:
We should be seeing Tim and the Sheik and a huge entourage showing up in Seattle for the next 77W delivery, and a few kind words about the 777's future should be getting dropped, with perhaps more words being dropped as "background".


I doubt airbus is bluffing. They are quite willing to kill the A380. A dead A380 means emirates will pay more for the 777x.

IMO, A380 line will be shut down. Emirates will go with 777x. No point in airbus fighting the inevitable. Best to use space allocated to the A380 for something else.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:03 pm
by william
beenalongtime wrote:
Just what the world needs for the New Year....yet another 'The A380 is dead' thread, with most digs unsurprisingly from the other side of the Atlantic.
The orders will come, and A380 is not in it's grave just yet.

Regards
b


You seem to have a problem with Reuters, you might want to drop them an email.

"Reuters /ˈrɔɪtərz/ is an international news agency headquartered in London, United Kingdom. It is a division of the Toronto-based Canadian media company Thomson Reuters."

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:08 pm
by william
Balerit wrote:
Sounds like another fake news story drummed up from the US to scare Airbus investors.


I give Airbus investors (myself included) much more credit than that.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:13 pm
by Balerit
william wrote:
Balerit wrote:
Sounds like another fake news story drummed up from the US to scare Airbus investors.


I give Airbus investors (myself included) much more credit than that.


I get several news feeds for Airbus from all over the world and you would be surprised how many American tabloids will say anything to give Airbus a bad name, like NYT or Wall Street Journal or Forbes or Huffington Post to name a few. Being in Africa gives me a neutral stance and I can see from both sides of the story. Why did the A380 deal fail, as someone else mentioned above, and it can only be through politics. Isn't it funny how many things changed after Trumps visit to the middle east?

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:24 pm
by ikramerica
What killed the A380 was the decision to optimize it for the -900/F rather than making a kick-ass 500 seater. I guess at the time the dedicated F market looked stronger, but to over build the pax model just to make a better freighter, when that freighter would have limited use around the world due to its double decker design, was hubris.

The problem was that they also needed to project F sales into the program to justify the launch aid. That they basically gave F companies free order slots to do it should have been a red flag.

There will be those who say "hindsight" etc, but many on Anet were bringing up these bad decisions and cooked numbers at launch. It's just been proven by reality now.

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:30 pm
by william
Balerit wrote:
william wrote:
Balerit wrote:
Sounds like another fake news story drummed up from the US to scare Airbus investors.


I give Airbus investors (myself included) much more credit than that.


I get several news feeds for Airbus from all over the world and you would be surprised how many American tabloids will say anything to give Airbus a bad name, like NYT or Wall Street Journal or Forbes or Huffington Post to name a few. Being in Africa gives me a neutral stance and I can see from both sides of the story. Why did the A380 deal fail, as someone else mentioned above, and it can only be through politics. Isn't it funny how many things changed after Trumps visit to the middle east?


In some aspects I agree with you ( I watch the BBC to see whats going on outside the USA) but you left out the Euro media that have also been hard on Airbus. Just as the media you have mentioned (HuffPo? Really? Journalism?) have been scathing of Boeing too.

In regards to the order, no I do not think its politics. As been stated in previous posts, Emirates "NEEDS" the A380. IMO Emirates wants a A380NEO for A380CEO price, and Airbus is saying," uh........NO." And from those stances both sides negotiate. And sometimes one uses the media (this story) to send a message. Fake News?That may be what Emirates is thinking, but I would not call Airbus's new management bluff on this one.