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New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:16 am

Welcome to New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018, please continue to add your comments below

Link to the December edition

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1380011
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planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:26 pm

Tianjin Airlines' new Xi'an - Auckland flight arrived on Saturday - does anyone have any photos of the first arrival?

The flight is priced competitively, with an introductory fare of NZD 204 (https://global.tianjin-air.com/NZ/GB/Home).

Cheers,

C.
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:14 pm

I suppose this really belongs in the 2017 thread, but it isn't there, that's locked and I think this deserves noting. If anyone objects, fine - I'm not very purist about this whole New Year thing.

With the reopening of SH1, Sounds Air has stopped flying to Kaikōura:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-exp ... nd-kaikura

"Job done: Sounds Air signs off on last flight between Blenheim and Kaikōura

It has been a godsend for many residents in the top of the South, but now the road is open again Sounds Air has called time on its direct air service to Kaikōura.

The Blenheim-Kaikōura passenger service took to the skies for the final time on Friday, marking the end of the route."


It was a terrific thing, a small airline moving in to help after a major crisis. I hope they made a quid or two along the way.

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alan3
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:29 pm

I was just curious about the AKL-YVR route... will it eventually switch to a 789? and who flies this route, is it mainly Australians and North Americans transferring through to Australia? Or New Zealanders connecting on AC to Europe or other AC destinations?

It seems to be (hopefully) a fairly successful route, which intrigues me since NZL is a fairly small market for Canada.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:31 pm

alan3 wrote:
I was just curious about the AKL-YVR route... will it eventually switch to a 789? and who flies this route, is it mainly Australians and North Americans transferring through to Australia? Or New Zealanders connecting on AC to Europe or other AC destinations?

It seems to be (hopefully) a fairly successful route, which intrigues me since NZL is a fairly small market for Canada.


One would have to think it will go 789 sometime. Which is a downguage from the 772, it will be daily for longer periods this year and more frequency pretty much all year compared to previous.

No idea who flies it, mainly Kiwis, Canadians and Australians I’d have thought.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:27 am

There is a rumour in the Australian Aviation Thread that EY will launch AUH - ADL - WLG in October 2018, using 789 equipment.

If true, it is interesting that WLG will be added to EY's network ahead of AKL or CHC. IMO, a BNE stop would be better than ADL.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:19 am

YVR may well get the next round of 78N orders, but I think the 789 isn't the best aircraft for the job, the 772 has a wider capability on AKL-YVR, so I think it would only be a temporary thing. I hope that YVR is actually more likely to be the first market with the new fleet order. An A350-900 would haul ass on the route.
Flown to 128 Airports in 48 Countries on 81 Operators. Visited 56 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:19 am

aerorobnz wrote:
YVR may well get the next round of 78N orders, but I think the 789 isn't the best aircraft for the job, the 772 has a wider capability on AKL-YVR, so I think it would only be a temporary thing. I hope that YVR is actually more likely to be the first market with the new fleet order. An A350-900 would haul ass on the route.


I agree, YVR would probably be good as a daily 78N over the NS bar July where they would need a 77E capacity, NW though it needs 77E capacity, there will be an extra flight the next 2 Saturday’s, I still think maybe a seasonal AC 789 3 weekly DEC-FEB, they initially announced MEL as seasonal but will keep it year round.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:52 am

planemanofnz wrote:
There is a rumour in the Australian Aviation Thread that EY will launch AUH - ADL - WLG in October 2018, using 789 equipment.

If true, it is interesting that WLG will be added to EY's network ahead of AKL or CHC. IMO, a BNE stop would be better than ADL.

Cheers,

C.


Can WLG handle more than an single wide body at once? or will it have to be timed around the SQ flight.
 
NPL8800
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:43 am

zkncj wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
There is a rumour in the Australian Aviation Thread that EY will launch AUH - ADL - WLG in October 2018, using 789 equipment.

If true, it is interesting that WLG will be added to EY's network ahead of AKL or CHC. IMO, a BNE stop would be better than ADL.

Cheers,

C.


Can WLG handle more than an single wide body at once? or will it have to be timed around the SQ flight.


In regards to physical gate space, yes it can, 23/24 and 26 are both wide body capable.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:09 am

zkncj wrote:
Can WLG handle more than an single wide body at once?

Yes:

Image

Cheers,

C.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:29 am

If WLG can attract a couple more of these one stop widebody services then I will honestly be shocked.

I'm still in the camp that thinks the killer market is south asia direct (Basically SIN). But if they can make the one stop routes work commercially long term then huge props to the airport team and airlines.

Still have to see it happen but it no longer seems crazy.
 
Obzerva
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:48 am

planemanofnz wrote:
There is a rumour in the Australian Aviation Thread that EY will launch AUH - ADL - WLG in October 2018, using 789 equipment.

If true, it is interesting that WLG will be added to EY's network ahead of AKL or CHC. IMO, a BNE stop would be better than ADL.

Cheers,

C.


ADL has gone from a few years ago only having limited ops to Asia, mainly CX, MH and SQ, not all of them daily.

They then added QR and EK, and I believe the loads aren’t always amazing, both being Oneworld they means they can both tap QF’s customer base, however there were questions over whether both could survive in ADL.
If EY is jumping in as well, it’ll need all the help it can get, hence the tag to WLG tapping both NZ and VA’s customer base.

From a perspective of does WLG need a direct widebody flight to ADL, unlikely, but if it helps WLG get the service then more power to them.

A stop in BNE over ADL would make more sense, but EY don’t seem to have an issue filling the BNE flight, so it doesn’t need the help from a tag.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:24 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
There is a rumour in the Australian Aviation Thread that EY will launch AUH - ADL - WLG in October 2018, using 789 equipment.

If true, it is interesting that WLG will be added to EY's network ahead of AKL or CHC. IMO, a BNE stop would be better than ADL.



I would presume they would choose ADL over BNE given 1) its currently unserved and 2) they wouldnt want to go head2head with VA (an airline they have a financial stake in)?

This all sounds a little bit unlikely given EY's recent pullback, but if its true it would have to be announced within a couple of weeks to meet the suggested NW18 timeframe. SQ announced mid-Jan for a mid-Sep launch although they already had significant brand recognition in WLG (and New Zealand) than EY - who would probably need more lead time?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:18 am

Obzerva wrote:
If EY is jumping in as well, it’ll need all the help it can get, hence the tag to WLG

If a New Zealand tag is needed to support an ADL service, why not serve AKL, instead of WLG?

With EK slashing its AKL capacity by 75% in one year, AKL could more easily support any loads.

Cheers,

C.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:12 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
If EY is jumping in as well, it’ll need all the help it can get, hence the tag to WLG

If a New Zealand tag is needed to support an ADL service, why not serve AKL, instead of WLG?

With EK slashing its AKL capacity by 75% in one year, AKL could more easily support any loads.



Why would EY fly a 1-stop to their hub against EK and QR non-stops, and also against NZ on the Tasman (an airline they actually codeshare with...)?

Remember the capacity EK have removed from AKL (and QF have partially replaced) is the cheap Australian travel market, and the long haul market has been replaced by the non-stop (and rumoured to be a second daily).

What makes you think AKL can support more loads - particularly from an EK/QR clone?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:08 am

a7ala wrote:
Why would EY fly a 1-stop to their hub against EK and QR non-stops?
What makes you think AKL can support more loads - particularly from an EK/QR clone?

All of the ME3 co-exist at similarly sized cities, like DUB and PER - competition does not force one of them to pick say, BFS, over DUB.

At the end of the day, AKL is a tier-one city in Australasia, with 4 or 5 times the population of WLG - competition does not change that.

Although EY would be at a disadvantage to EK and QR in AKL with a one-stop service via ADL, a number of factors play to its benefit:

- With a 787-900, EY would offer a better premium product out of AKL than QR, who currently only flies its older 777-200LRs to AKL
- EY could market itself to NZ's FFP base here, who may want an ME3's European network, but who cannot earn points on EK or QR
- EY is the only ME3 carrier flying to certain EMEA destinations, like MSQ and RBA, and currently has a better GCC network than QR
- EY would have feed from NZ's regional network (that is to say, EY would not compete with EK or QR out of the likes of TRG or WRE)
- Some New Zealanders would be put off by the idea of a non-stop flight to the Middle East, and so EY's ADL stop may appeal to them

IMO, WLG would better align with EK or QR's strategy:

- EK has already established itself in New Zealand, at AKL and CHC, and so WLG would be a natural extension, as it was for SQ here
- QR, suffering from the blockade, is more about 'dots on maps' at the moment, with the need to re-deploy capacity (e.g. CWL and PEN)

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:54 am

planemanofnz wrote:
All of the ME3 co-exist at similarly sized cities, like DUB and PER - competition does not force one of them to pick say, BFS, over DUB.


No but flying on much shorter sectors non-stop allows them to do this.

planemanofnz wrote:
At the end of the day, AKL is a tier-one city in Australasia, with 4 or 5 times the population of WLG - competition does not change that.


More like just over 3 times. Wellington is around 0.5M, Auckland 1.7M.

planemanofnz wrote:
Although EY would be at a disadvantage to EK and QR in AKL with a one-stop service via ADL, a number of factors play to its benefit:

- With a 787-900, EY would offer a better premium product out of AKL than QR, who currently only flies its older 777-200LRs to AKL
- EY could market itself to NZ's FFP base here, who may want an ME3's European network, but who cannot earn points on EK or QR
- EY is the only ME3 carrier flying to certain EMEA destinations, like MSQ and RBA, and currently has a better GCC network than QR
- EY would have feed from NZ's regional network (that is to say, EY would not compete with EK or QR out of the likes of TRG or WRE)
- Some New Zealanders would be put off by the idea of a non-stop flight to the Middle East, and so EY's ADL stop may appeal to them


I just dont think these are strong enough factors for the 1-stop. Yes EY might have a better product than QR but surely thats short-term and not enough of a reason for an AKL strategy. And I would be surprised if NZ cooperated as you suggest - they are quite happy to codeshare but anything stronger than that would be a step too far. And on the being put-off by the non-stop to middle east, if that was as big an issue then EK wouldnt have pulled the tasman services so quickly. Finally EY might have a better GCC network, but how many of those countries need a transit visa for the ADL stop? If EY was going to go into AKL surely it would be non-stop?

planemanofnz wrote:
IMO, WLG would better align with EK or QR's strategy:


I do agree with you there - its a question of which of the ME3 finds a way first.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:39 am

a7ala wrote:
If EY was going to go into AKL surely it would be non-stop?

EY is presently facing financial constraints - a one-stop service would allow it to still expand to AKL, while managing associated risks.

Obviously a non-stop service would be ideal, but in the absence of resources to execute this, should EY just sit back and do nothing?

Cheers,

C.
 
Obzerva
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:01 am

planemanofnz wrote:
a7ala wrote:
If EY was going to go into AKL surely it would be non-stop?

EY is presently facing financial constraints - a one-stop service would allow it to still expand to AKL, while managing associated risks.

Obviously a non-stop service would be ideal, but in the absence of resources to execute this, should EY just sit back and do nothing?

Cheers,

C.


are they doing nothing though, they're serving AKL via MEL on a codeshare on NZ with a 1hr45 min stop in MEL on the evening flight
likewise they're serving AKL via SYD on a codeshare on VA with a 1hr35min stop in SYD on the afternoon flight.
Even if they used their own aircraft as a tag, those connection times wouldn't be reduced by much.

The times out of WLG because of the lesser frequency of flights to Australia than AKL are pretty bad though, so that essentially would be a new market as the number of pax out of WLG would currently be minimal due to the poor stopover times.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:12 am

Obzerva wrote:
are they doing nothing though, they're serving AKL via MEL on a codeshare

True - EY actively sells itself here, with its own local New Zealand website.

In contrast, MU, 3U and others who fly here, do not have such an offering.

Nevertheless, IMO, EY could and should be doing more in New Zealand.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:02 am

Had my first flight on Air New Zealand for the year yesterday, AKL-WLG on an A320. Interestingly, the safety video which was played was the "Summer of Safety" on from last year. I was pretty happy about that; I think it is their best job in recent times, and I found the "Fantastical Journey" one to be quite irritating after a while. Is this a deliberate dropping of the "Fantastical Journey" safety video, or just a temporary thing over the summer months?

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens.

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Deepinsider
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:43 am

planemanofnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Can WLG handle more than an single wide body at once?

Yes:

Image

Cheers,

C.

What a fantastic photo this is! Love to see some more. (my home town)
M.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:50 pm

planemanofnz wrote:


Nevertheless, IMO, EY could and should be doing more in New Zealand.



If you believe the rumour then they are looking to do more with an AUH-ADL-WLG. All im saying is that "doing more in New Zealand" doesn't automatically mean going to AKL.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:17 pm

a7ala wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:


Nevertheless, IMO, EY could and should be doing more in New Zealand.



If you believe the rumour then they are looking to do more with an AUH-ADL-WLG. All im saying is that "doing more in New Zealand" doesn't automatically mean going to AKL.

Unless you can fly AUH-ADL with an A320; I'd say this route doesn't have a hope in hell.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:32 pm

Gasman wrote:
a7ala wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:


Nevertheless, IMO, EY could and should be doing more in New Zealand.



If you believe the rumour then they are looking to do more with an AUH-ADL-WLG. All im saying is that "doing more in New Zealand" doesn't automatically mean going to AKL.

Unless you can fly AUH-ADL with an A320; I'd say this route doesn't have a hope in hell.


I wouldnt totally dismiss it. WLG-ADL market size is more than 50% larger than WLG-CBR was prior to SQ starting, plus I would expect more stimulation with ADL being a much more interesting destination than CBR is. And EY would provide much better connectivity with Europe than SQ currently does.

Interestingly, if they chose to fly the first class B789 product the config at 235-seats its not much more than a typical A320 anyway...

EK/QR would be a better option though.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:37 pm

a7ala wrote:
I wouldnt totally dismiss it. WLG-ADL market size is more than 50% larger than WLG-CBR was prior to SQ starting

Assuming you're correct about the market differential, that still leaves the fact that SIN is a destination many orders of magnitude more viable as an O&D destination to WLG pax than AUH is.

a7ala wrote:
plus I would expect more stimulation with ADL being a much more interesting destination than CBR is.

Debatable. We'd be arguing over degrees of relatively dull. I wouldn't personally travel to either place for leisure alone.

a7ala wrote:
And EY would provide much better connectivity with Europe than SQ currently does.

Also debatable. I haven't done a destination by destination comparison; but I've flown through SIN to Europe on SQ many times and have never felt bereft of good connectivity. And I'd prefer fly SQ than EY.

Yeah, I'm happy with totally dismissing it.

a7ala wrote:
EK/QR would be a better option though.

Possibly, but only in that those airlines have something of a momentum in the New Zealand market already. But you're still hobbled by AKL, market size and the skinniness of these routes which (still) are too thin for today's aircraft.

WLG-CBR-SIN was a piece of brilliance in my view; but it was a combination of a niche untapped market and route viability including a city (CBR) not already served from New Zealand and it's unlikely to be replicated.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:06 pm

Gasman wrote:

a7ala wrote:
I wouldnt totally dismiss it. WLG-ADL market size is more than 50% larger than WLG-CBR was prior to SQ starting

Assuming you're correct about the market differential, that still leaves the fact that SIN is a destination many orders of magnitude more viable as an O&D destination to WLG pax than AUH is.


Of course its nothing to do with the market size WLG-AUH, just like its nothing to do with CHC-DXB market size on EK.... And actually New Zealanders travelling to main destination Singapore are pretty small in number. There were only 23,500 NZ resident departures to Singapore YEOct17. Infact Singapore is only number 16 largest country for resident departures (even VietNam, Tonga, Philippines is larger).

Gasman wrote:

a7ala wrote:
And EY would provide much better connectivity with Europe than SQ currently does.

Also debatable. I haven't done a destination by destination comparison; but I've flown through SIN to Europe on SQ many times and have never felt bereft of good connectivity. And I'd prefer fly SQ than EY.


I presume you are talking about ex-AKL SQ services? SQ operates or codeshares to 13 destinations in Europe out of SIN (of which only LHR connects - poorly - with the CAPEX) vs EY's 23 out of AUH. The likes of SQ, CX etc just cant compete with the ME3 when it comes to European connectivity which is why we are seeing more of a focus on serving Asia at the expense of Europe from these carriers.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:37 pm

a7ala wrote:
And actually New Zealanders travelling to main destination Singapore are pretty small in number. There were only 23,500 NZ resident departures to Singapore YEOct17. Infact Singapore is only number 16 largest country for resident departures (even VietNam, Tonga, Philippines is larger).

But do those figures take into account stopovers? Many New Zealanders travelling to Europe would take a couple of nights at the Marina Bay Sands on the way; I'm not sure AUH would have even the same stopover appeal.

a7ala wrote:
I presume you are talking about ex-AKL SQ services? SQ operates or codeshares to 13 destinations in Europe out of SIN (of which only LHR connects - poorly - with the CAPEX) vs EY's 23 out of AUH. The likes of SQ, CX etc just cant compete with the ME3 when it comes to European connectivity which is why we are seeing more of a focus on serving Asia at the expense of Europe from these carriers.

Yes, I was talking about ex AKL. But those 13 destinations that SQ flies to are of course the destinations in Europe that people want to travel to........ and the extra ones offered by EY are on the fringe. But I do take and accept your point.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:24 am

Here is a photo of the first XIY - AKL flight on GS arriving last week:

Image

Supposedly, the flight is seasonal, and will operate until 17 March.

See: http://www.anna.aero/2018/01/03/tianjin ... onnection/.

a7ala wrote:
All im saying is that "doing more in New Zealand" doesn't automatically mean going to AKL.

For a carrier that currently has no service to New Zealand, "doing more in New Zealand" kind of does mean going to AKL - the only Iong-haul carrier to launch flights to New Zealand in recent times, by not launching flights to AKL, was D7 (who now have ended up at AKL anyway).

Cheers,

C.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:32 am

Do we have sources for the EY rumour?

If it does come about, then great for WLG, though would be a very oddball high risk route. And would demonstrate - again - that a publicly funded runway extension is not necessary.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:53 am

alan3 wrote:
I was just curious about the AKL-YVR route... will it eventually switch to a 789? and who flies this route, is it mainly Australians and North Americans transferring through to Australia? Or New Zealanders connecting on AC to Europe or other AC destinations?

It seems to be (hopefully) a fairly successful route, which intrigues me since NZL is a fairly small market for Canada.

Yes to 789 at least off peak (April-Nov). During Dec-Feb it is mostly Kiwis and Aussies going skiing in Canada. Rest of the year more of a mix.
57 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:44 pm

aerokiwi wrote:
Do we have sources for the EY rumour?

If it does come about, then great for WLG, though would be a very oddball high risk route. And would demonstrate - again - that a publicly funded runway extension is not necessary.


I think it came from LamboAston in the Australian thread - not sure if they can shed any more light?

On the runway extension clearly it IS required (putting to one side where the funding comes from). You just need to see what is happening with CBR at the moment. Yes QR is an artifact of getting access to SYD, but the rumours of CX, CZ and even MU being interested is all on the back of the SQ service and the international facilities that have enabled operations. While they are rumours, where there is smoke theres fire and a couple of years ago CBR wasnt even being talked about as an international destination.

These tags via Australia to WLG will not work for all markets, particularly growing markets. They rely on a third country (Australia) which provides all sorts of limitations on what can be flown. A good example is Hong Kong where a service via a main East Coast port to WLG uses up two of their allowed rights and we already know they are maxed out in Australia. Another example is a Chinese carrier - they will never fly via Australia to WLG due to the requirement for transit visas for Chinese passport holders for the ones that want to come directly to WLG.

And then you have aircraft limitations. My understanding is the existing WLG runway cannot handle B777-300ER's or A350-900's from Australia due to wet landing limitations. So any airline wanting to upgauge a WLG tag at a later stage will have limited options.

Finally these tag services are expensive for an airline to operate in terms of aircraft time, airport costs, crewing, fuel and you would have to question how sustainable they are over the long term.

And the long term trend for aviation is continual increase and so markets will continue to grow (including WLG) and these opportunities will increase. Now who pays for the extension is a different matter, but in my mind its definitely required even just to allow wet landing for all Code E aircraft.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:18 am

a7ala wrote:
Another example is a Chinese carrier - they will never fly via Australia to WLG due to the requirement for transit visas for Chinese passport holders for the ones that want to come directly to WLG.

IMO, this is not a sufficient factor in support of a runway extension, because:

- A Chinese carrier is not the only option for WLG - the likes of CI (of Taiwan) and D7 (of Malaysia) have existing tags to New Zealand
- An Australian stop is not the only option for Chinese carriers - they could avail of domestic tags (like JNB - CPT on SQ) or a NAN stop
- Many nationalities travelling on EK's New Zealand flights required a visa to transit through Australia, yet the service lasted ~15 years

a7ala wrote:
Finally these tag services are expensive for an airline to operate in terms of aircraft time, airport costs, crewing, fuel and you would have to question how sustainable they are over the long term.

If executed well, IMO, tags can be sustainable - for example, EK's SYD - CHC and LA's SYD - AKL have both been operating for a while.

Even though both carriers are launching new non-stop flights (like DXB - AKL and SCL - MEL), there are no signs of these tags stopping.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 5809
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:12 am

EK said they were looking at a non stop or one stop through Asia to CHC. Personally I think that will happen from NW 2018/19 along with an additional AKL service.

LA were considering SYD-SCL non stop a few years ago, QF operate it which I can’t see them giving up, will LA do it as well? Pretty sure LA will continue to serve AKL as well either way.

D7 have talked of AKL non stop, there was some talk they could do WLG/CHC via OOL, I think non stop AKL will happen if they are happy to take a hit on payload ex AKL, and OOL-WLG/CHC split on alternate days.

I think CI with the A350 could do AKL non stop atleast seasonally maybe BNE-CHC/WLG could be added in summer when AKL goes non stop?

Personally can’t see any mainland Chinese carriers doing Tasman runs, CZ were going to do AKL-MEL when they first added AKL in 2011, I think it may have been the visa thing that changed their mind.

As for EY to WLG via ADL, I’ll believe it when I see it but I think WLG will pick up a few more of these one stops from carriers looking to expand, maybe the odd domestic tag from AKL/CHC, CAN-WLG-AKL-CAN etc, CX have done this BNE-CNS and still do seasonally, maybe they might do HKG-WLG-CHC-HKG? Who knows?
 
a7ala
Posts: 119
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:42 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
As for EY to WLG via ADL, I’ll believe it when I see it but I think WLG will pick up a few more of these one stops from carriers looking to expand, maybe the odd domestic tag from AKL/CHC, CAN-WLG-AKL-CAN etc, CX have done this BNE-CNS and still do seasonally, maybe they might do HKG-WLG-CHC-HKG? Who knows?


I suspect you run into hours problems for something like a CAN-WLG-AKL-CAN or HKG-WLG-CHC-HKG given the distance from home base. These services can work for something like HX HKG-OOL-CNS-HKG because the OOL-CNS-HKG sectors can be done in around 11.5 hours including the stop which is within one crew cycle. How many crew would you need for a WLG-CHC-HKG cycle? Probably one for WLG-CHC and then one for CHC-HKG which then becomes operationally just too hard. Particularly if its not daily - you end up have two crew stuck in New Zealand.

Yes these sort of services can work - but in very specific situations.
 
a7ala
Posts: 119
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:56 am

planemanofnz wrote:
- A Chinese carrier is not the only option for WLG - the likes of CI (of Taiwan) and D7 (of Malaysia) have existing tags to New Zealand


Well I guess there are other options, but arent we talking about investing in long-term infrastructure?

planemanofnz wrote:
- Many nationalities travelling on EK's New Zealand flights required a visa to transit through Australia, yet the service lasted ~15 years


That was one of the reasons why they eventually decided to go non-stop - to avoid transit visas for Middle Eastern, Indian, Eastern European and African markets

planemanofnz wrote:
If executed well, IMO, tags can be sustainable - for example, EK's SYD - CHC and LA's SYD - AKL have both been operating for a while.


Airlines would much rather not fly tags if they can avoid it. In the case of SYD-CHC I would suspect the issue is that a CHC-DXB non-stop has just not been viable (particularly now with a A380) and so the tag is the only way to make CHC work. As time goes on, market grows, and EK gets more suitable sized aircraft CHC-DXB will become viable and they will stop tagging via SYD. In the case of WLG it may well be that tags will be the opportunity in the short-term as markets grow, but what happens when the market supports a non-stop? Or when Australia changes their rules around tags or is more restrictive around transiting pax? Or when an opportunity for the aircraft comes along which may generate less revenue but because it doesnt involve a tag can be operated at significantly less cost?
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 2078
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:56 am

a7ala wrote:
That was one of the reasons why they eventually decided to go non-stop - to avoid transit visas for Middle Eastern, Indian, Eastern European and African markets

Not really:

- The non-stop DXB - AKL flight was launched as a response to QR's non-stop DOH - AKL flight, with almost no lead-in time, as such
- The Australia - AKL tags were dropped, IMO, because of changes to the power dynamic in the QF - EK alliance - QF wanted EK out

EK's non-stop flight is severely payload restricted one-way - had the factors above not developed, the Australia - AKL tags would stay.

a7ala wrote:
In the case of WLG it may well be that tags will be the opportunity in the short-term as markets grow, but what happens when the market supports a non-stop?

Aside from whether there is growth potential in WLG for more than a handful of such carriers, more frequencies and tags can be used.

Cheers,

C.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 930
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:39 am

a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
As for EY to WLG via ADL, I’ll believe it when I see it but I think WLG will pick up a few more of these one stops from carriers looking to expand, maybe the odd domestic tag from AKL/CHC, CAN-WLG-AKL-CAN etc, CX have done this BNE-CNS and still do seasonally, maybe they might do HKG-WLG-CHC-HKG? Who knows?


I suspect you run into hours problems for something like a CAN-WLG-AKL-CAN or HKG-WLG-CHC-HKG given the distance from home base. These services can work for something like HX HKG-OOL-CNS-HKG because the OOL-CNS-HKG sectors can be done in around 11.5 hours including the stop which is within one crew cycle. How many crew would you need for a WLG-CHC-HKG cycle? Probably one for WLG-CHC and then one for CHC-HKG which then becomes operationally just too hard. Particularly if its not daily - you end up have two crew stuck in New Zealand.

Yes these sort of services can work - but in very specific situations.

There's a good reason why these tag flights have fallen out of favour, and it's the same reason that NZ doesn't intend to add more one-stop services. By far the most economic way of operating an airline is to operate just out and back. Once you start adding intermediate stops you have the additional crewing requirement (as above), which not only requires more staff $$$ but requires accommodation to be provided as well, which all adds up in cost. But very significantly, unless the carrier can establish a niche market on the tag itself, then the tag flights tend to be lower occupancy than the flight that feeds the tag.

Even triangular flights are potentially problematic; in this case primarily because if you operate a flight A to B to C to A, then a full passenger load from A to C means that there is no potential to pick up any passengers in B to carry them back to A. If the short B to C sector is full, then you've almost certainly got empty seats on the long A to B or C to A sectors

NZ is known to have established a good local premium passenger market between LAX and LHR, and that's probably the only factor that saves that leg from the chop. Carriers like CI, operating across the Tasman without alliance partners, and even D7, must surely struggle to fill the Transtasman sectors they fly, and I'd be surprised if either are operating Transtasman in a couple of years or so from now. LA and EK are different in that they get QF passengers AKL/CHC-SYD, but even then the crewing costs must be a burden (and indeed EK is soon exiting all but one of its NZ tag flights).

We tend to forget that air travel is significantly cheaper for the consumer now than it was (say) 30 years ago, and the advent of LCCs has really put the pressure on the legacy carriers. Airlines have to keep costs cut to the bone just to compete, and cutting tag flights is low-hanging fruit when it comes to saving money.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 2078
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:13 am

DavidByrne wrote:
There's a good reason why these tag flights have fallen out of favour.

Please note that tag flights are still regularly being launched by APAC carriers, including in recent years, for example:

- CBR - WLG (SQ)
- DME - ARN (SQ)
- KIX - HNL (D7)
- MEL - CHC (CI)
- OOL - AKL (D7)
- YVR - MEX (CZ)

There are different factors for each tag, but this demonstrates that WLG can be served without a runway extension.

Cheers,

C.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 930
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:45 am

planemanofnz wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
There's a good reason why these tag flights have fallen out of favour.

Please note that tag flights are still regularly being launched by APAC carriers, including in recent years, for example:

- CBR - WLG (SQ)
- DME - ARN (SQ)
- KIX - HNL (D7)
- MEL - CHC (CI)
- OOL - AKL (D7)
- YVR - MEX (CZ)

There are different factors for each tag, but this demonstrates that WLG can be served without a runway extension.

Cheers,

C.

I’m well aware that many tag flights still exist; my point is that they are inherently problematic, the more so as the industry becomes more and more competitive. Yes, sometimes local factors mean they can be operated profitably, but the trend worldwide is strongly toward nonstop flights for the reasons I’ve outlined.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 5809
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:53 am

In regards to WLG, I can’t see a runway extension anytime soon if ever, however given the growing inbound tourist market to NZ I do think WLG will get a few carriers interested, some as you say David won’t do it due operating costs like crew layover which I didn’t think about before where as I think some will give it a go.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 2078
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:54 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Yes, sometimes local factors mean they can be operated profitably, but the trend worldwide is strongly toward nonstop flights for the reasons I’ve outlined.

A trend is not a strong enough factor in support of a runway extension here, when, despite the trend you cited, tag flights are continually being launched and sustained.

ZK-NBT wrote:
In regards to WLG, I can’t see a runway extension anytime soon if ever, however given the growing inbound tourist market to NZ I do think WLG will get a few carriers interested ...

IMO, unlike CHC, the long-haul market at WLG would be heavily skewed towards out-bound travel, which would limit the number of interested carriers, relative to CHC.

Cheers,

C.
 
Seat1K
Posts: 13
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:11 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:51 am

It is unlikely you can use the same crew ADL-WLG and back even with a brief turnaround in WLG. Tying crew up in hotels in non-core tags is not effective use of a valuable and scarce resource - EK learned that in AKL and this was one of the pressures to drop the tags.
Note SQ benefits from the NZ relationship out of WLG - something EY would not. VA is not a real partner in the NZ market as it has a very limited sales presence. EY bookings from NZ have all but disappeared after QR and EK went non-stop.
NZ long haul traffic trends are very dynamic and what was true even 18 months ago no longer applies.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 5809
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:10 am

Seat1K wrote:
It is unlikely you can use the same crew ADL-WLG and back even with a brief turnaround in WLG. Tying crew up in hotels in non-core tags is not effective use of a valuable and scarce resource - EK learned that in AKL and this was one of the pressures to drop the tags.
Note SQ benefits from the NZ relationship out of WLG - something EY would not. VA is not a real partner in the NZ market as it has a very limited sales presence. EY bookings from NZ have all but disappeared after QR and EK went non-stop.
NZ long haul traffic trends are very dynamic and what was true even 18 months ago no longer applies.


You should be able to use the same cabin crew for ADL-WLG return with a short turn round, probably a change of flight crew.

EY codeshare with NZ though I’m not sure what they would come up with for an EY service on a route like ADL-WLG.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 2078
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:23 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
You should be able to use the same cabin crew for ADL-WLG return with a short turn round, probably a change of flight crew.

Indeed - NZ do not over-night crews at ADL, CNS or PPT, which are similar in distance.

Also, notably, CI, D7 and LA crews all do same-day return Trans-Tasman services too.

Cheers,

C.
 
Gasman
Posts: 1661
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:38 am

planemanofnz wrote:
a7ala wrote:
That was one of the reasons why they eventually decided to go non-stop - to avoid transit visas for Middle Eastern, Indian, Eastern European and African markets

Not really:

- The non-stop DXB - AKL flight was launched as a response to QR's non-stop DOH - AKL flight, with almost no lead-in time, as such
C.

What was far more likely was that QR's non stop flight was actually in response to the planned EK DXB-AKL flight, which QR would have had firm advance knowledge of far before the wider community. The EK flight had been mooted for a long while.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 2078
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:55 am

Gasman wrote:
What was far more likely was that QR's non stop flight was actually in response to the planned EK DXB-AKL flight, which QR would have had firm advance knowledge of far before the wider community. The EK flight had been mooted for a long while.

IMHO:

- A non-stop flight was available to EK for years, but would have been less attractive than a one-stop flight - ULH flights are always more costly
- QR had maxed out its Australian rights, and therefore had to come to AKL (instead of BNE), if it wanted more tier one Australasian expansion
- Given EK's large investment into the New Zealand market since 2003 (including sponsoring Team New Zealand), EK wanted to pre-empt QR

The lead-in time supports this, with DXB - AKL announced about one month before commencing, and amidst rumblings from AAB beforehand.

I do not remember EK having mooted a non-stop flight to AKL for a long while, as you say, but I would be happy to be proven wrong on this point.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
Posts: 446
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:06 pm

Given the reported loadings on AKL-DXB and QF pushing for an EK exit on TT flying I would suggest this supports EK opening a DXB-Asia-AKL one-stop to complement its existing non-stop service over a second non-stop but who knows. Only time will tell.
 
PA515
Posts: 1145
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:15 pm

ATR 72-500 ZK-MCW went CHC-BNE yesterday as SXI1814, and today it's doing BNE-DRW-CGK.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ZKMCW

PA515

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