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keesje
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AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:52 am

Looking back over the last 10 years major new projects were completed, A380 entered full production, as did A350, A400M and H-160. A320 & A330 NEO's were developped and other types such as MRTT, X-3 and C295 AEW were engineered and the assembly lines in Tianjin and Mobile came alive.

The chances Airbus will sit on their hands for the next 10 years and just milk existing projects seems low, looking at the last 20 years. They would have dismantle a large R&D and development infrastructure in Europe.

Image

Of course there's ongoing projects such as Beluga XL, C-Series Assembly and Racer Heli Technology but what segments will Airbus look into for investment, innovation and long term continuation?
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SteelChair
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:54 am

The gap between the A320 series and the A330 series would seem to be the most obvious need imho.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:02 am

SteelChair wrote:
The gap between the A320 series and the A330 series would seem to be the most obvious need imho.


If the A330NEO sells eell over a longer period, otherwise the gap will be A320 series - A350-900
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350Ops
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:10 am

Perhaps redesigning the A321’s wing to allow for longer range and efficiency as well as further stretch varients.
 
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seahawk
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:16 am

A350-8000 + A322 + A321 Plus (new wing)
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:18 am

350Ops wrote:
Perhaps redesigning the A321’s wing to allow for longer range and efficiency as well as further stretch varients.


Been discussed for years. It would be a derivative, but a big one if they opt for a new wing. Maybe named Plus Plus

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Geoff1947
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:33 am

Does this gap exist as far as sales of planes are concerned ? The failure of the 787-3, the demise of the 787-8 and the fate of the A330-800 and the A350-800 suggests it doesn’t. Boeing are trying to make a case fo the NMA because they can’t compete with the A321. If Boeing succeed Airbus will need to respond.
An all new A320 replacement might get launched in this period.

Geoff
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:52 am

Geoff1947 wrote:
Does this gap exist as far as sales of planes are concerned ? The failure of the 787-3, the demise of the 787-8 and the fate of the A330-800 and the A350-800 suggests it doesn’t. Boeing are trying to make a case fo the NMA because they can’t compete with the A321. If Boeing succeed Airbus will need to respond.
An all new A320 replacement might get launched in this period.

Geoff


Filling this segment with heavy overdimensioned and expensive long haul platforms isn't working. Still Airbus and Boeing managed to sell 3000 757's, 767's and A300/310's in this area. Since then traffic doubled. Maybe a new "Super Narrowbody" could fill part of the segment.

Image
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SteelChair
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:01 pm

keesje wrote:
Geoff1947 wrote:
Does this gap exist as far as sales of planes are concerned ? The failure of the 787-3, the demise of the 787-8 and the fate of the A330-800 and the A350-800 suggests it doesn’t. Boeing are trying to make a case fo the NMA because they can’t compete with the A321. If Boeing succeed Airbus will need to respond.
An all new A320 replacement might get launched in this period.

Geoff


Filling this segment with heavy overdimensioned and expensive long haul platforms isn't working. Still Airbus and Boeing managed to sell 3000 757's, 767's and A300/310's in this area. Since then traffic doubled. Maybe a Super NB could fill part of the segment.

Image


Agree completely.

The "lost decade" caused midsized airplanes to get overlooked. How best to address that size range, wth the attendant large investment required by the manufacturers when airlines are more cost conscious than ever, is the source of huge debate. How this will be resolved is yet to be decided, but if past history is any clue, engine size and availability will be a major pacing element.

Imho the "perfect" size fuselage for this segment is the 767, but it needs a new engine. Doesnt seem likely to happen. The 222 inch Airbus fuselage is too big imho and the 148/156 inch 737/A320 fuselage is too small.
 
kurtverbose
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:12 pm

There'll be a narrowbody realignment. The A320/321 will be rewinged and grow a bit. The C series will get a 500 and fill in the lower end of the market.

Widebody's - I can see there being an A350-2000 or whatever it's called. I don't know what happens to the A330. I don't know if there'll be a constant stream of tricle orders or if the 787/A350 production ramp up means they become cheap and available enough to kill the A330. If that happens I can see airbus looking at dusting down a revised A350-800 because I can't see them creating a new model when the A321 and its successor are so strong.

Big question is the A380. If it survives in production I can see there being demand for an update. I don't just mean a neo, but further optimisations.

I see the whole of the 2020's as being about derivatives. I can't see anything really new until the 2030's when they find some new tech to justify it.
 
kurtverbose
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:14 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Imho the "perfect" size fuselage for this segment is the 767, but it needs a new engine. Doesnt seem likely to happen. The 222 inch Airbus fuselage is too big imho and the 148/156 inch 737/A320 fuselage is too small.


A twin aile that narrow is not efficient unless you go for a non-circular shape.
 
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:18 pm

The biggest question is how the aviation world will meet the Paris agreement, large steps need to be taken in the 2020's.

As for investing in more conventional aircraft. I think A322/A321plus (new wing), A350-1100/2000, (fingers crossed for the A380-900) and possibly an A330NEO replacement which is smaller and optimised for transatlantic plus transcontinental work (9 abreast is the minimum for a widebody, two aisles need to have a good number of seat to serve, but a lot lighter then the A330 and a wing optimised for that).
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:21 pm

I think a lot depends on what happens with the A330neo. It has been picking up a number of customers, but those are for airplanes purchased by leasing companies three years ago. Will leasing companies buy more or will some of those airlines purchase them on their own?

What about the freight market? It is starting to turn around.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:43 pm

SteelChair wrote:
keesje wrote:
Geoff1947 wrote:
Does this gap exist as far as sales of planes are concerned ? The failuDre of the 787-3, the demise of the 787-8 and the fate of the A330-800 and the A350-800 suggests it doesn’t. Boeing are trying to make a case fo the NMA because they can’t compete with the A321. If Boeing succeed Airbus will need to respond.
An all new A320 replacement might get launched in this period.

Geoff


Filling this segment with heavy overdimensioned and expensive long haul platforms isn't working. Still Airbus and Boeing managed to sell 3000 757's, 767's and A300/310's in this area. Since then traffic doubled. Maybe a Super NB could fill part of the segment.

Image


Agree completely.

The "lost decade" caused midsized airplanes to get overlooked. How best to address that size range, wth the attendant large investment required by the manufacturers when airlines are more cost conscious than ever, is the source of huge debate. How this will be resolved is yet to be decided, but if past history is any clue, engine size and availability will be a major pacing element.

Imho the "perfect" size fuselage for this segment is the 767, but it needs a new engine. Doesnt seem likely to happen. The 222 inch Airbus fuselage is too big imho and the 148/156 inch 737/A320 fuselage is too small.


A "Super Narrowbody" could mean a 15-20 inch wider fuselage to handle passenger movement and decrease structural efficiency restrains of real long narrow fuselages. While retaining much of the NB efficiency and offer a twin aisle option for premium cabins.

Image
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:47 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I think a lot depends on what happens with the A330neo. It has been picking up a number of customers, but those are for airplanes purchased by leasing companies three years ago. Will leasing companies buy more or will some of those airlines purchase them on their own?

What about the freight market? It is starting to turn around.


Dedicated freighter designs seem sparse. 767 and A330 conversions seem to dominate. Hopefully it will help 748 sales, so I can watch 747s for the next 30 years.. :cloudnine:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:54 pm

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I think a lot depends on what happens with the A330neo. It has been picking up a number of customers, but those are for airplanes purchased by leasing companies three years ago. Will leasing companies buy more or will some of those airlines purchase them on their own?

What about the freight market? It is starting to turn around.


Dedicated freighter designs seem sparse. 767 and A330 conversions seem to dominate. Hopefully it will help 748 sales, so I can watch 747s for the next 30 years.. :cloudnine:


What about an A350 Freighter?
 
parapente
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:55 pm

2020-2030?
I guess one starts with what is known.Airbus have been presenting the plus and plus/plus for around 3 years.I think it was a Leeham article that suggested that the plus was some final further improvements to the existing aircraft.
This could mean 2nd gen blended winglets (with downlets?).
The monolithic carbon box section (wet for additional fuel?)
Flight Int did spot them testing a 'bump' on the fuse just before and above the leading edge wing root.(Improved T/o at higher weights?).
A final stretch to 250 pax as proposed circa 15 years ago? (Trading range for pax).

It was suggested that Plus/plus was a new carbon wing (and stretch) which would go with a new engine? (797?).

As Newbypilot stated.Gotta watch to see how the 330max programme goes.If (when?) Boeing launch the 797 it might be difficult for the 338.Leaving the 339 an orphan....
The antecedence of the 330 fuse is ancient now so will need replacing sometime.So over the decade in question some sort of carbon mom may well be on the cards.That would be the big project if it happens.I imagine they will wait and watch for a couple of years.
They could of course do both! Ie The plus/plus and a New Midrange Aircraft.After all Boeing did the 757 and 767 - and the 320 a/c already exists.

2030? The A380 will be at the end (most likely).But so will VLA quads' anyway.So perhaps the second 350 stretch that has already been suggested by Airbus if required.Not a huge task really.But the market there is fairly weak at the moment.
 
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:06 pm

Airbus could do a A330 sized replacement. The same fuselage size, 8 pax a row in Y and LD3 containers, but lighter all carbon and a carbon wing optimised for mid haul.
I do not believe in the A350-800, but as a small ULH frame.
The A321 will grow with new wings.
The A350-1000 will be stretched, or if the A380 dies we will see a new bigger Airbus twin with a slightly larger fuselage than the 777, for a comfortable 10 a row or tight 11 a row in Y.
 
SteelChair
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:10 pm

keesje wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
keesje wrote:

Filling this segment with heavy overdimensioned and expensive long haul platforms isn't working. Still Airbus and Boeing managed to sell 3000 757's, 767's and A300/310's in this area. Since then traffic doubled. Maybe a Super NB could fill part of the segment.

Image


Agree completely.

The "lost decade" caused midsized airplanes to get overlooked. How best to address that size range, wth the attendant large investment required by the manufacturers when airlines are more cost conscious than ever, is the source of huge debate. How this will be resolved is yet to be decided, but if past history is any clue, engine size and availability will be a major pacing element.

Imho the "perfect" size fuselage for this segment is the 767, but it needs a new engine. Doesnt seem likely to happen. The 222 inch Airbus fuselage is too big imho and the 148/156 inch 737/A320 fuselage is too small.


A "Super Narrowbody" could mean a 15-20 inch wider fuselage to handle passenger movement and decrease structural efficiency restrains of real long narrow fuselages. While retaining much of the NB efficiency and offer a twin aisle option for premium cabins.

Image


While a nice compromise (probably less wasted space than a small twin aisle) I don't see today's cost conscious airline managers approving a 30 inch aisle.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:22 pm

SteelChair wrote:

While a nice compromise (probably less wasted space than a small twin aisle) I don't see today's cost conscious airline managers approving a 30 inch aisle.


Maybe if 1.5 aisle for 6 abreast is cheaper than 2 aisles for 7 abreast on a 260 seat aircraft..

People can pass each other / a trolley in a wide aisle, not in a narrow one. Even if there are 2.
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:31 pm

Airbus developments in the narrowbody / MoM space depend on integrating the C series into their product line-up, so I don't expect anything to be announced until after the transaction with Bombardier is finalised - due by end-2018.

Assuming that works out as planned, the C series range will be expanded to include the CS 500, and will ultimately replace the lower end of the A320 family. I expect A319/A320 to be offered in parallel for a long time, as the A320 is Airbus' cash cow, with their fate being decided by market demand. A319s being limited to special needs including biz jets for the next few years.

Airbus will then turn its attention to replacing the A321 and filling the MoM space with a new frame family, integrating C series technology for commonality. A321 re-winging is an option, but the longer Boeing delays its MoM, the more likely Airbus is to jump directly to a new frame - they are not exactly struggling to sell current-wing A321s just now!.

Depending on how the A330neo sells, and how big the top end of the new A321 / MoM frame is, a regionally-optimised A350-800 may see light of day, but would need a lot of weight reduction including to the wing and MLG.

Regarding the A350, there will be weight reductions and engine PiPs, the normal stuff. I expect a stretch to be announced sooner rather than later, especially if the A380 gets canned, as Airbus will not want to leave everything above a A350-1000 size to Boeing. The big gamble would be a new frame widebody twin optimised at something like B748 capacity. I would like to see a regionally-optimised A350-1000 with A350-900 wing, engines and MLG to knock out the 787-10.

With freight picking up, there is low hanging fruit to be had by offering A338F and / or A339F - the conversion cannot be very different from A332 to A332F. Plus maybe A350F / MRTT, at more development cost.
 
Arion640
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The biggest question is how the aviation world will meet the Paris agreement, large steps need to be taken in the 2020's.

As for investing in more conventional aircraft. I think A322/A321plus (new wing), A350-1100/2000, (fingers crossed for the A380-900) and possibly an A330NEO replacement which is smaller and optimised for transatlantic plus transcontinental work (9 abreast is the minimum for a widebody, two aisles need to have a good number of seat to serve, but a lot lighter then the A330 and a wing optimised for that).


Does this still apply in the US still?
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

No CONC sadly.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:42 pm

keesje wrote:

A "Super Narrowbody" could mean a 15-20 inch wider fuselage to handle passenger movement and decrease structural efficiency restrains of real long narrow fuselages. While retaining much of the NB efficiency and offer a twin aisle option for premium cabins.

Image


I see you are back to your claim regarding structural efficiency while promoting an extra wide narrowbody. Has anything changed since you waived the white flag admitting that there is no evidence supporting that an extra wide aisle reduces fuselage weight or improves effieicncy in any way?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1362655&start=750

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Hi Newbie if a fuselage has a 10 inch wider fuselage, the same loads have a longer arms which leads to lower stains. It improves area moment of inertia of an aircraft fuselage cross section. Alternative you can lower the dimensions of fuselage structure and skin (weight saving) or e.g. make the fuselage longer and stay within the allowed load envelope. A bigger (average) radius helps to the fourth power improving Polar moment of inertia of a tube leaving room for weight reduction if the load stays ~ the same. Which is the case if e.g. a cabin stays 3-3 abreast + AKH container.
https://www.engineersedge.com/imagefiles/polar-moment-of-inertia.png

Image

Of course there are other loads the fuselage has to take, but those are often more limiting factors for widebodies, that can theoretical have thin skins from a bending standpoint but still need to withstand e.g. hail & scrapnel loads
.
Image


How is anything that you posted relevant to your comment "A 10 inch wider fuselage also does wonders for structural efficiency / weight when going beyond 35 seat rows." What is special about 35 rows to make a wider fuselage more structurally efficient?

In one post you say widebodies can't compete with narrowbodies in efficiency. Then in another you say that current narrowbodies are too narrow and need to be wider to be more efficient. You seem to have decided that 178 inches is some magic number, yet provide no analysis why.

I understand how a beam works, but not how you are coming up with numbers showing that 178 inches is the ideal diameter for a plane that is 55 meters long. Why is 178 inches better than 196 inches or 164 inches? Nothing that you posted backs up the claim that 178 inch diameter fuselage will be lighter than a 164 inch fuselage since it is all theory. Going on the wider is better motif, why not make the airplane a 7 abreast widebody that is 196 inches wide?


keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
How is anything that you posted relevant to your comment "A 10 inch wider fuselage also does wonders for structural efficiency / weight when going beyond 35 seat rows."


:white:


I don’t see Airbus building an extra wide aisle narrowbody, but I have been wrong before.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:47 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Airbus developments in the narrowbody / MoM space depend on integrating the C series into their product line-up, so I don't expect anything to be announced until after the transaction with Bombardier is finalised - due by end-2018.

Assuming that works out as planned, the C series range will be expanded to include the CS 500, and will ultimately replace the lower end of the A320 family. I expect A319/A320 to be offered in parallel for a long time, as the A320 is Airbus' cash cow, with their fate being decided by market demand. A319s being limited to special needs including biz jets for the next few years.

Airbus will then turn its attention to replacing the A321 and filling the MoM space with a new frame family, integrating C series technology for commonality. A321 re-winging is an option, but the longer Boeing delays its MoM, the more likely Airbus is to jump directly to a new frame - they are not exactly struggling to sell current-wing A321s just now!.

Depending on how the A330neo sells, and how big the top end of the new A321 / MoM frame is, a regionally-optimised A350-800 may see light of day, but would need a lot of weight reduction including to the wing and MLG.



I'm not sure how much the CSeries would influence Airbus' portfolio above 150 seats. One of the weakpoints of the A321LR / a straightforward stretch is the 10% lower cruise speed compared to larger WB's. That starts to weigh in on 4000NM flights. Inbetween a more straight A321 stretch and an entirely new NB, maybe a dedicated higher range, speed, capacity optimized design could be considered. E.g. using the CSeries more aerodynamic cockpit section with A320 fuselage, like Boeing used its 767 cockpit on the 777.
Image

P.s. newbiepilot, I waved the white flag after I ( & not only me..) explained several times in detail & you asked again :yes:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
SteelChair
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:13 pm

It's interesting that Aviation Week, and others, periodically publish crap articles (often from Nasa studies) with all these strange airplane shapes and exotic propulsion, yet when airlines start talking seriously with manufacturers they always go with conventional planforms.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:31 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The biggest question is how the aviation world will meet the Paris agreement, large steps need to be taken in the 2020's.

As for investing in more conventional aircraft. I think A322/A321plus (new wing), A350-1100/2000, (fingers crossed for the A380-900) and possibly an A330NEO replacement which is smaller and optimised for transatlantic plus transcontinental work (9 abreast is the minimum for a widebody, two aisles need to have a good number of seat to serve, but a lot lighter then the A330 and a wing optimised for that).


Does this still apply in the US still?


What? Paris agreement? Doesn't really matter, Airbus and Boeing ain't going to build a plane especially for the US and planes need to be able to land outside the US from the US and there will be another administration in the White House and then things could change again on a federal level. Anyhow, at the moment aerospace is exempt as are the international (cargo) ships, but they need to be included to meet the goal set within the Paris agreement, so getting rid of fossil fuels. 2050 is closer for long use items like airplanes.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:37 pm

SteelChair wrote:
It's interesting that Aviation Week, and others, periodically publish crap articles (often from Nasa studies) with all these strange airplane shapes and exotic propulsion, yet when airlines start talking seriously with manufacturers they always go with conventional planforms.


I think it is called public relations. The public finances most of the R&D done by NASA, Onera, DLR and other research institutions. So you have to feed the public with what they love to see (innovation, stepchanges, gamechangers, paradigm shifts, sustainable miracles, electric cleanmachines) even if in reality only small incremental steps can be realized. The moneystream has to continue to finance real innovations slowly moving through the TRL's.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technol ... ness_level

It is about perceptions & subsidy streams controlled by uninformed masses. Said but truth.. IMO one of realities of democratic capitalism versus public interests.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Dowi ... Future.jpg

Image
Last edited by keesje on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
parapente
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:52 pm

Just for the sake of discussion!-The A321NEO plus plus.
It's (more than) interesting to me that the 779 is bigger than the 773er,even wider (internally) so it's a true X10 ac.So it carries (much) more and further but guess what.It has lower powered engines!
Ok it's obvious I know.The new high aspect carbon wing is doing far more of the work.
But if it's true for this a/c then it could be equally true of an A321NEO plus plus - rewinged.
We know that the GTF engine is getting both a power bump and better SFC in 2019 for the LR.P&W have said there is more to come if needed.
So imagine that the 'real' mom sweet spot is 4,500nm and not Boeing's 5-5.5knm (who really knows).
So it may well be possible to create a 250seat A322 with proper tatl ability - with the new wing using --- the existing GTF engine!
Now that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
There is already a new carbon wingbox,there is already a double bogey MLG,the plane and engine exist already (and Airbus already knew 15 years ago that the fuse can take an extra stretch).
Such an aircraft could be created in half the time at half the cost with a selling price way below anything that Boeing could offer their mom for (5 years later).Its SFC would be untouchable(against a 50lbs thrust engine).
If that scenario is true then Airbus might be looking at it veeery carefully.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:01 pm

keesje wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
It's interesting that Aviation Week, and others, periodically publish crap articles (often from Nasa studies) with all these strange airplane shapes and exotic propulsion, yet when airlines start talking seriously with manufacturers they always go with conventional planforms.


I think it is called public relations. The public finances most of the R&D done by NASA, Onera, DLR and other research institutions. So you have to feed the public with what they love to see (innovation, stepchanges, gamechangers, paradigm shifts, sustainable miracles, electric cleanmachines) even if in reality only small incremental steps can be realized. The moneystream has to continue to finance real innovations slowly moving through the TRL's.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technol ... ness_level

It is about perceptions & subsidy streams controlled by uninformed masses. Said but truth.. IMO one of realities of democratic capitalism versus public interests.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Dowi ... Future.jpg

Image


I wouldn’t be surprised to see images of outside protected on the interior of the airplane. Until someone invents clear CFRP, I wouldn’t expect much more in the form of windows. Once the 787 novelty wears off, I think we might start seeing smaller windows again since they weigh less.
 
Egerton
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:14 pm

As ever, the engine side of things will tend to control the aeroplane side.

On Rolls-Royce, it is clear that the Trent has been Pip'd enough. RR is not going to look backwards as a means of moving forward. They are resourcing the UltraFan as its primary concept, together with multiple other secondary tech progress including the Advance core. The next large and step-changed RR engine for the future may be available for EIS by 2027 at the earliest, using the UltraFan concept with many other high tech changes.

There is no need for any step-change to replace its big selling large engines T1000 TEN (and T7000) or the TXWB before a 2027 EIS. But RR technological progress will continue as always, and when the commercial time is right that new tech will reach the production lines. By 2027 the new replacement for the 737 range, and the NEO for 787 and A350 will all be coming towards EIS.

By then RR can have competing entries for each of these markets. GE's entry into these 2027 markets is unknown, but they know it will need to be commercially competitive with RR, who by that time will have the lion's share of the large civil aero-engine market.

As for P&W, they will hold some 25% of the narrow body engine market. Their existing GTF models have some growth potential which may be enough for the enhanced A321 which is widely expected. However, RR is out of that market, and the GE competitor will hold the remaining 75% of the narrow bodies. Both GE and P&W will have made massive investments to achieve this duopoly, so are unlikely to hurry to spend unlimited funds on replacements.

It seems clear that the RR UltraFan concept will be capable of spanning large, medium and small power requirements, so it is a commercial decision as to which goes into production first. Given that the A321 in various existing or growth (P&W GTF) formats will have eaten the Boeing MoM vapourware for breakfast, there is no chance of a 797 in hardware form. That leaves Airbus in the driving seat on narrow bodies, and in particular with the enhanced A321.

The RR medium power (for narrow bodies) or high power (for wide bodies) UltraFans cannot be ready for EIS before 2027. So it is an open question as to when Airbus needs either of these, given it can continue with the growth P&W GTF and pip'd XWB for many years. This will depend on the GE strategy for large engines, which depends to some extent on the success or otherwise of their brand new 777-9 engine.

Perhaps I may conclude with my point that, as ever, the engine side of things will tend to control the aeroplane side.
 
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CaptnSnow71
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:07 am

Boeing's working on a new MoM. I expect a serious battle coming around 2019/2020, similar to what we saw with the 788/350.
 
DarthLobster
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:32 am

keesje wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
keesje wrote:

Filling this segment with heavy overdimensioned and expensive long haul platforms isn't working. Still Airbus and Boeing managed to sell 3000 757's, 767's and A300/310's in this area. Since then traffic doubled. Maybe a Super NB could fill part of the segment.

Image


Agree completely.

The "lost decade" caused midsized airplanes to get overlooked. How best to address that size range, wth the attendant large investment required by the manufacturers when airlines are more cost conscious than ever, is the source of huge debate. How this will be resolved is yet to be decided, but if past history is any clue, engine size and availability will be a major pacing element.

Imho the "perfect" size fuselage for this segment is the 767, but it needs a new engine. Doesnt seem likely to happen. The 222 inch Airbus fuselage is too big imho and the 148/156 inch 737/A320 fuselage is too small.


A "Super Narrowbody" could mean a 15-20 inch wider fuselage to handle passenger movement and decrease structural efficiency restrains of real long narrow fuselages. While retaining much of the NB efficiency and offer a twin aisle option for premium cabins.

Image


At some point, narrowbodies have got to reach a point of diminishing return...
Last edited by DarthLobster on Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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cpd
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:41 am

Projections by fans of manufacturers for 2020 or 2030 is all well and good, but how do we even know the manufacturer will be around by that time?

I think they'll just sit on their hands and do as little as possibly needed to make the most amount of money from existing technology until such time they are pushed to do something innovative.

By the way, some of this stuff (including the Keesje graphics) were posted last year already:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1374459
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:46 am

Newbiepilot wrote:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see images of outside protected on the interior of the airplane. Until someone invents clear CFRP, I wouldn’t expect much more in the form of windows. Once the 787 novelty wears off, I think we might start seeing smaller windows again since they weigh less.


Unless there's some FAA/EASA mandate that specifically prohibits this, I'd be surprised if Airbus/Boeing don't take a long, hard look at reducing window counts/density on their next clean sheet designs, I am no engineer, but that seems like a way to reduce manufacturing cost/complexity and weight, which would increase efficiency without being subject to engine/aero tech improvements.
 
Planesmart
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:51 am

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The biggest question is how the aviation world will meet the Paris agreement, large steps need to be taken in the 2020's.

As for investing in more conventional aircraft. I think A322/A321plus (new wing), A350-1100/2000, (fingers crossed for the A380-900) and possibly an A330NEO replacement which is smaller and optimised for transatlantic plus transcontinental work (9 abreast is the minimum for a widebody, two aisles need to have a good number of seat to serve, but a lot lighter then the A330 and a wing optimised for that).


Does this still apply in the US still?


What? Paris agreement? Doesn't really matter, Airbus and Boeing ain't going to build a plane especially for the US and planes need to be able to land outside the US from the US and there will be another administration in the White House and then things could change again on a federal level. Anyhow, at the moment aerospace is exempt as are the international (cargo) ships, but they need to be included to meet the goal set within the Paris agreement, so getting rid of fossil fuels. 2050 is closer for long use items like airplanes.

CORSIA optional 2020-2026, thereafter mandatory. Majority of countries and airlines (including in the USA) have signed up, and supported by airport owners, financiers and alliances, although it's clear many haven't done the maths.

I recently peer reviewed modelling to optimise opportunities pre-2020, 2020-2026, and post 2026, based on airlines in growth, stable and decline modes.

For airlines in growth mode, you will see new routes, increased frequencies, fragmentation and proliferation until 2020. This may include operating a larger fleet, and retaining aircraft to inflate the base year, after which fare increases, joint ventures, consolidation, airline acquisitions and right sizing will be the name of the game. A barrier to new entrants, and possible godsend to the A380?

Still lots of questions, like how subsidiaries will be treated, acquisitions, charters, start-ups, etc.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:06 am

Planesmart wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Does this still apply in the US still?


What? Paris agreement? Doesn't really matter, Airbus and Boeing ain't going to build a plane especially for the US and planes need to be able to land outside the US from the US and there will be another administration in the White House and then things could change again on a federal level. Anyhow, at the moment aerospace is exempt as are the international (cargo) ships, but they need to be included to meet the goal set within the Paris agreement, so getting rid of fossil fuels. 2050 is closer for long use items like airplanes.

CORSIA optional 2020-2026, thereafter mandatory. Majority of countries and airlines (including in the USA) have signed up, and supported by airport owners, financiers and alliances, although it's clear many haven't done the maths.

I recently peer reviewed modelling to optimise opportunities pre-2020, 2020-2026, and post 2026, based on airlines in growth, stable and decline modes.

For airlines in growth mode, you will see new routes, increased frequencies, fragmentation and proliferation until 2020. This may include operating a larger fleet, and retaining aircraft to inflate the base year, after which fare increases, joint ventures, consolidation, airline acquisitions and right sizing will be the name of the game. A barrier to new entrants, and possible godsend to the A380?

Still lots of questions, like how subsidiaries will be treated, acquisitions, charters, start-ups, etc.


That is a question I have, which you might be able to answer or someone else in the profession. Looking at what is happening in the world, how do lease companies or airlines alike handle the end of operation appreciation? Do they include scenario's which will see CO2 pricing and thus less economical a/c will be hit harder and perhaps smaller a/c as well? So how does the financial industry handle the Paris agreement and its implication?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:21 pm

The A300/310/330/340 fuselage has a kind of just right cross section. Will CRFP make it uneconomical from a life cycle perspective, and when?

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seahawk
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:40 pm

Right for what?
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:47 pm

seahawk wrote:
Right for what?


Just right according to Airbus marketing material promoting their products.

It is pretty popular from a passenger perspective. When it comes to an optimized design, the cabin floor is higher than other planes due to the need to fit LD3s inside. The containers are mounted a bit higher than on a 787 or 777, pushing up cabin floor. That reduces shoulder room and overhead space. The plane also has a sloped cabin floor to preserve cargo space in the back, but the design still can’t take as many containers as a slightly wider fuselage with a lower floor could.

There is no just right or perfect size. There are always compromises.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:48 pm

keesje wrote:
The A300/310/330/340 fuselage has a kind of just right cross section. Will CRFP make it uneconomical from a life cycle perspective, and when?




When a 5 inch increase in width from the A330 enables an extra seat per row in Y (787), it's difficult to say that the cross section is "just right".
 
WIederling
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:30 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Does this still apply in the US ?


What I could garner is that on a state and commercial entity basis support for the Paris Accords is strong.
like: http://thehill.com/policy/energy-enviro ... nt-even-if

"damn lefty snowflakes. can't even take a bit of climate change" :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:37 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
keesje wrote:
The A300/310/330/340 fuselage has a kind of just right cross section. Will CRFP make it uneconomical from a life cycle perspective, and when?

When a 5 inch increase in width from the A330 enables an extra seat per row in Y (787), it's difficult to say that the cross section is "just right".

A330 allows 8 for comfort 9 in an LCC compressed layout.
Economics on the 787 demand the ( marginally less) compressed 9 across layout for "comfort" and LCC. no 10 across possible.

The 222" inch A300 cross section is the "rounder" minimax design.
Reducing the fuse diameter further would lose you the "well established ULD" carrying capability.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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reidar76
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:14 pm

A lot can happen in a decade. Here is my best guess of possible coming development and innovation projects.

1) New clean sheet turboprop
ATR, the joint venture between Airbus and Leonardo (50/50), develops a new clean sheet turboprop using the latest carbon composites technology and new engines (maybe hybrid-electric), and with super laminar flow wings (currently being tested on the outerwing of an A340 test aircraft). Maybe a new clean sheet turboprop will be the first commercial aircraft with only one human pilot, using a new advanced autopilot/computer as co-pilot. Bombardier is invited into the joint venture.

2) Long range single-aisle
Airbus develops a long range narrowbody based on the A321neo, using the A321 fuselage etc. Maybe Airbus could use the Cseries front section and cockpit, like the 777 uses the 767 nose and cockpit. I think longer range narrowbodies is where significant growth will come in the coming decade. With smaller and cheaper aircraft we will see more direct flights, thus saving time and costs. LCC going long haul would love a long range single-aisle aircraft. I can see a future where flights up to 10 hours in a narrowbody will be commonplace.

3) A350-2000 and A350 re-engine
I think we will see a re-engine of the A350 during the decade. As soon as RR has their new ultrafan ready, it will be an option on the A350. The fuel savings enabled by the new engines will increase the range of the A350 ULR to such extent that non-stop flights LHR - SYD finally will be a reality. When the A350 gets the new ultrafan I think Airbus will do a simple stretch of the A350-1000, and at the same time announce the date for the production of the last A380.

4) Small stretch of the CS300
I think Airbus and Bombardier would do a simple stretch of the CS300, but maybe not until mid-decade. The A319 will by then no longer available for sale.

5) Updated A320 and A321
Airbus will continue to upgrade the systems on the A320 and A321 gradually, but we might also see new wings and removal of hydraulic systems etc. Maybe the Cseries cockpit and front section can be used, thus creating a integrated narrowbody family with different cross sections (A320 and Cseries) and same type rating. The Cseries get renamed (getting an A3xx name).

6) Citybus
Electric or hybrid-electric rotary-wing aircraft for short distances enters mass production.

7) Open rotor engines
First Airbus aircraft (for research and innovation purpose) with open rotor engines will fly during the decade.


When we reach 2030 the Airbus commercial could be the following: (old name in parenthesis)

A352 (A350-2000)
A351(A350-1000)
A350 (A350-900)

A331 (A330-900)
A330 (A330-800)

A323
A322
A321
A320

A312 (CS500!
A311 (CS300)
A310 (CS100)

A302 (new clean-sheet turboprop)
A301 (new clean-sheet turboprop)
A300 (new clean-sheet turboprop)
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:05 pm

reidar76 wrote:
Maybe a new clean sheet turboprop will be the first commercial aircraft with only one human pilot, using a new advanced autopilot/computer as co-pilot. Bombardier is invited into the joint venture.

CAA issues aside-- what lucky major airline (brand) will be the first to sign up for convincing pax to actually ride that?

I'm rarely one to speak positively of the perception of general pax; mostly because they're a bunch of irrational fools who'll subject themselves to just about anything to save $5, then whine about it as if anyone was going to care....

....but they have demonstrated in the past, that they can be cowed into a herd-like backlash against an aircraft type that they feel is unsafe; perhaps the most famous example being the DC10 post AA/TK crashes.

Not to say that a 1pilot operation is inherently unsafe, but I'll bet a year's income that they'd see it that way.
The media can always be counted upon to stir up a frenzy over this sorta thing.

And also, what will the backlash from unions be? How much trouble will that cause, especially for the Euro carriers?

What airline will want the hassle?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
flyinggoat
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:38 pm

In the next 15 years, I could see Airbus working on the following models:

1) A350-1100. This would be a 5 row stretch of the -1000. This may not happen until Airbus decides to NEO the A350 with a modified/new wing.

2) New A320 series with all new, larger wing. A319 is dropped and A321 is the baseline aircraft. “A320.5” would be a shrink of the A321. A “A322” would be a stretch of the A321 with double bogie gear. Possible A321LR as well.

3) All new medium haul A360 to replace the A330. Smaller baseline size equivalent to somewhere between the A300 and A332. Stretched model sized between the A332 and A333. 8 abreast aircraft.

4) Bombardier launches the CS500 (Airbus A370?) to cover the current regional routes operated by the A320.

5) A330 and A380 dropped.

This is all my own speculation of course, but this would be a very nice lineup. The MOM segment would be covered quite nicely by the A322 and A360.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:52 pm

Reidar most of the developments you mention are derivatives, except the turboprop. While it is understood props provide low cost for short haul operations, the noise issue is there. Meanwhile the Leap and PW GTF provide a significant reduction in noise levels. I wonder if the new gear technology and new fan models could work in a ducted variant, combining strenghts of props and turbofans. It becomes a bit unclear for when a high BPR becomes a ducted fan anyway. The latter were unsuccessful so far, but maybe drawbacks can be reduced.

Image

Electrical doesn't seem realistic to me to generate aircraft propulsion. For storing the kind of energy required to move 30-50 people over 300-400NM, batteries seem heavy, slow and expensive. (And pls. don't use cheap electricity from coal plants
to charge, although 90% of the public doesn't understand that doesn't work).
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JoergAtADN
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:24 pm

1.) Thes CS500 as a A319+ sized plane opimized for short-haul (2500nm)

2.) Rewing the A320neo for medium-haul (5000nm)

3.) Rewing the A321neo to give it medium range (5000nm) without tanks in the cargo-hold

4.) A A322 optimized for the Boeing MOM suitspot (270seats/4500nm range)

The positioning of the CS500 aircraft as short haul product allows it to reuse most parts of the CS300. On the other hand, Airbus can ignore the short haul market needs for the A320 line, and can optimize it for the suitspot of the Boeing MOM.

In the wideboy market:

1.) It's to early to develop a A330neo replacement, such a plane should have an technology edge on the Boeing MOM, which means it should not be developed based on todays technology.

2.) The A350-2000 will be developed, as soon as enough customers ask for it. It's an easy project for Airbus.

3.) A ultra long range A350 will be developed, as soon as enough customers ask for it.

The A380 needs a repositioning in size and range or a max streched A350 as replacement:

4a) I think a A380-900CEOplus (streched A380 with MTOW of the A380-800CEO) will be the optium for most LHR to US flights and DXB to Europe flights. The streched fuselage will reduce CASM a lot, without to much investment (same engines, same landing gear, mostly same wing). This would make new A380 more attractive than old A380s.

4b) The A380 will be optimized for ultra long haul, which requires a new engine. Big cabin space and not so big payload is what is needed for flights up to 20hours.

4c) Cancel the A380 program at all and develop an 80m A350 long haul aircraft.

What else:

1.) I could imagine that they take over a startup like Lilium ( https://lilium.com/ ) to get into the electric air-taxi market (4-10 seats + pilot and 200nm range)

2.) A lot of Europe military projects, because the European leaders will react on the Trump administration and on the Putin administration by increasing military spending without buying critical technology in one of the two countries.
 
IPFreely
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:32 am

Dutchy wrote:
The biggest question is how the aviation world will meet the Paris agreement, large steps need to be taken in the 2020's.


Have you read the Paris agreement? International aviation is specifically excluded. Even if it was included, the agreement is voluntary and un-enforceable -- there are no sanctions or penalties for non-compliance. So no steps -- large or small -- are needed.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:38 am

JoergAtADN wrote:
3.) A ultra long range A350 will be developed, as soon as enough customers ask for it.

They've already done that.... despite only one airline wanting it.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Samrnpage
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:47 am

The A322 and A323 is the most logical step. A bigger frame, new wing and commonality as close to the A320/1 as possible should, on paper, be not too difficult.

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