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Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:06 am
by qf789
Happy New Year Everyone.

Another year is upon us and lets hope for another exciting year in Australian Aviation.

Link to December edition

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1380013

Link to QF Fleet Thread 2017

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1368283

Link to QF Fleet Thread 2018

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382753

Latest on QF 787-9's

VH-ZNA (Great Southern Land) delivered
VH-ZNB (Waltzing Matilda) delivered
VH-ZNC currently on Boeing flightline, first flight expected this month
VH-ZND parts arriving
Planned Delivery dates - #3 - 22 January, #4 - 15 February 18, #5 - 12 July 18, #6 - 24 August 18, #7 - 13 November, #8 - 26 November
MEL-LAX (QF95/96) from 15 Dec - 6 weekly, 5 weekly 3 May -27 June 18
MEL-LAX (QF93/94) will see 3 weekly A388 and 2 weekly 789 12 Feb -24 March 18
MEL-PER-LHR from 24 March 18
MEL-SFO to start late 2018, MEL-LAX to have frequency reduced to facilitate MEL-SFO
BNE will be base for frames 5-8
First BNE based 789 will be named Great Barrier Reef
BNE-LAX-JFK to fo 789 later in 2018

Some highlights for 2017 (have only selected some)

QF returns to Beijing, Osaka
CX adds A350 to MEL, BNE & PER
TT receives AOC for 737-800's, ends flights to Bali after the Bali fiasco
Malindo starts KUL-DPS-BNE
NZ adds 789 service to ADL
VA launches MEL-HKG
Both QF and VA start offering WIFI on selected flights
VA launches Economy X
VA resumes MEL-LAX
Rex flight loses propeller in flight
EK announces reduction in Trans Tasman services, QF to increase A330 flights to NZ instead
LA adds SCL-MEL
AC adds YVR-MEL
JL adds NRT-MEL
QF retires VH-OJM
QF introduces 787-9 to fleet
QF to drop transit in DXB for SIN, adds A380 on MEL-SIN as well
Chinese carriers continue adding services to Australia
JQ add MEL/SYD-SGN, SYD-HAN, MEL-CGO
VA looking at a new business class for 737's on trans con routes
QF announces Project Sunrise, the last frontier 777X or A350 to operate SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK non stop
Alleged terrorist plot foiled out of SYD, EY A388 targeted, new security measures being introduced
QF to begin refurbishment of A380's in 2019

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:16 am
by XAM2175
You're two hours early mate! :P

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:13 pm
by qf789
Seems all is not well with the families of MH370 and the planned memorial that will be installed in Perth

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/mh3 ... b88702456z

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:04 pm
by Crackshot
I remember reading in one of the earlier threads that Tianjin Airlines was applying to fly to BNE. Any update on this?

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:38 pm
by oskarclare
Crackshot wrote:
I remember reading in one of the earlier threads that Tianjin Airlines was applying to fly to BNE. Any update on this?


An announcement should be made soon for a CKG-BNE start in September!

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:06 am
by qf789
QF76 YVR-SYD (departure YVR 30 Dec, arrival SYD 1 Jan) diverted to HNL, aircraft still remains in HNL

http://theqantassource.com/qantas-b747- ... diversion/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:46 am
by Qantas16
Storms on the Gold Coast this evening led to a few diversions:

VA539 SYD-OOL diverted to BNE
JQ442 MEL-OOL diverted to BNK
JQ424 SYD-OOL diverted to BNE

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:39 am
by Obzerva
So what does everyone see for the year ahead?

QF announcing further routes is an obvious one for the 787
VA announcing another city to HKG or possibly mainland China
JQ steady as she goes or more?
TT replacing 320’s with 737s, international ops? Clearly not DPS.
EY I think any up or down gauges will partly tell the story on how they’re travelling, especially with QR increasing capacity in to PER, when VA couldn’t do it with EY’s help
SQ/MI more of the same? Capacity changes?or perhaps a WA location for MI
CX increasing more A350s
NH or JL and another Chinese carrier to PER
MH returning to BNE?
And more Chinese carriers, it’s just a given ;)

My left field ones:
TK announce flying to AU
VA announce a big fish Velocity partner airline
EK to a non capital city
Into ops resume from HBA (or announced, let’s not get hasty)

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:34 pm
by IndianicWorld
My predictions:

- Atleast one of the ME3 will cut capacity on SYD-DXB/AUH/DOH. The additional capacity by all 3 carriers already(EY) or coming up soon (EK, QR) may well cause some yield issues to fill seats. Out of those, I see EY as the most likely to have to cut.
- 5J to finally start MEL-MNL
- MEL will announce a new T5

Not going to speculate though on the likelihood of a QF-AA JV though, as that’s anyone’s guess.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:49 pm
by sq256
My Left Field predictions:

* China Southern defects from SkyTeam to Oneworld (per the ongoing rumours in the Media)
* Hainan Group carriers joins Skyteam to fill void left by China Southern's defection to OW.
* Borghetti is booted/leaves the VA CEO role.
* SQ subsequently sells their VA stake, and gradually scales back VA partnership.
* Etihad may maintain Europe partnership with VA, but may also sell their VA stake in favour of bailing out Alitalia (A bigger financial basketcase than VA).
* NZ and VA revert to being rivals on the Trans-Tasman route when the JV ends in late 2018.
* Virgin Australia joins Skyteam with Delta sponsorship, joining part shareholder Hainan group.

VA drastically downsizes their international ops.
* Mainline narrowbody: AKL/CHC/WLG to/from BNE/SYD/MEL (Feeding into Skyteam Carriers & VA's limited long-haul ops to LAX/PEK/HKG)
* Mainline widebody: HKG/PEK/LAX (ex SYD and MEL - Feeding into their Shareholders/Skyteam Hubs & Selected Non-Aligned (e.g Etihad or Virgin Atlantic) at those ports).
* Tigerair: Nadi and Queenstown from BNE/SYD/MEL. Possibly also AKL-OOL.

VA Axed Routes (and potential replacements).
* Remaining DPS operations handed to GA in a JV.
* BNE-LAX and MEL-LAX handed to DL. VA maintains SYD-LAX to provide the 2nd frequency for the VA/DL TransPacific JV. Alternatively, BNE-LAX could be the sole route maintained by VA in the JV whilst DL takes over SYD-LAX (double daily) and MEL-LAX.
* All other NZ & Pacific Island routes terminated.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:57 pm
by qf789
Obzerva wrote:
So what does everyone see for the year ahead?


Thanks for starting this, I was going to bring this up in the next couple of days but you beat me to it

QF announcing further routes is an obvious one for the 787


We are expecting that US destination ex BNE I still favour ORD. I am curious on what others think, will QF start a route like this as a daily service or something like a 4-5 weekly service?
I am also expecting to start exercising those options as they come close to expiry. While we may only see orders of a few at a time, say 4 that would be enough to have enough for a base in SYD
The other big decision from QF I would expect is the decision on the Project Sunrise, personally I favour the 777X it has more to offer than the A350
Hopefully we will also see a decision on whether QF will go PER-AKL year round to time well for connections on PER-LHR
VA announcing another city to HKG or possibly mainland China


VA has said they will announce another route by end of this year however I have my doubts and suspect VA doesn't know either. I would think another route to HKG would be best particularly if they start codesharing on VS's HKG-LHR

Hopefully with the 737MAX being introduced in 2019 we hear some more on the transcon business class product for the 737's

JQ steady as she goes or more?


I would expect JQ to add new routes as needed. It will interesting to see how they use A320/321neos once they start arriving. If they can replace a route such as BNE-DPS with a A321neo they would have some more flexibility in the 788 fleet, perhaps look at another route to China

TT replacing 320’s with 737s, international ops? Clearly not DPS.


I'm not so sure about internationally but I think we will see TT slowly add more routes

EY I think any up or down gauges will partly tell the story on how they’re travelling, especially with QR increasing capacity in to PER, when VA couldn’t do it with EY’s help


EY is going to be an interesting one to watch especially with new management. Will they maintain their share in VA? The rumour of them upgrading PER to 77W has gone cold but I guess time will tell. I believe the one in the PER market that is vulnerable is EK.

SQ/MI more of the same? Capacity changes?or perhaps a WA location for MI


We have trials going ahead with MI for SIN-BME mid year, so it will be one to watch lets hope something can be more permanent, but probably only seasonal at best.
I am expecting SQ to bring their new toy, the 787-10 to Australia sometime this year. SQ has been slowly adding capacity every year and I see this year no different

CX increasing more A350s


CX said about a year ago they hope to have most Australian services to be operated by A350's in 2019 so one would think they would keep upgrading existing A330's with A350's. With them now having 22 A359's and about to start taking A350-1000's I wonder if we will see those here as well

NH or JL and another Chinese carrier to PER


I would say it will JL and MU add services. I also wonder if HU will try a PEK-PER service and beat CA to it. As mentioned about a month ago the lithium refinery in Kwinana is due to open at the end of the year of which WA will become the world's exporter of so I would not be surprised to see more interest from both the Japanese and Chinese markets on the business front and hopefully tourism also plays a part as well

And more Chinese carriers, it’s just a given ;)


I don't think this is going to change. Juneyao Airlines is due to take their first 787-9 this year so I expect they will announce SYD and/or MEL and flying here by the end of the year

My left field ones:
TK announce flying to AU
VA announce a big fish Velocity partner airline
EK to a non capital city
Into ops resume from HBA (or announced, let’s not get hasty)


Another one, Ethiopian add services to Australia

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:10 pm
by Obzerva
sq256 wrote:
My Left Field predictions:

* China Southern defects from SkyTeam to Oneworld (per the ongoing rumours in the Media)
* Hainan Group carriers joins Skyteam to fill void left by China Southern's defection to OW.
* Borghetti is booted/leaves the VA CEO role.
* SQ subsequently sells their VA stake, and gradually scales back VA partnership.
* Etihad may maintain Europe partnership with VA, but may also sell their VA stake in favour of bailing out Alitalia (A bigger financial basketcase than VA).
* NZ and VA revert to being rivals on the Trans-Tasman route when the JV ends in late 2018.
* Virgin Australia joins Skyteam with Delta sponsorship, joining part shareholder Hainan group.

VA drastically downsizes their international ops.
* Mainline narrowbody: AKL/CHC/WLG to/from BNE/SYD/MEL (Feeding into Skyteam Carriers & VA's limited long-haul ops to LAX/PEK/HKG)
* Mainline widebody: HKG/PEK/LAX (ex SYD and MEL - Feeding into their Shareholders/Skyteam Hubs & Selected Non-Aligned (e.g Etihad or Virgin Atlantic) at those ports).
* Tigerair: Nadi and Queenstown from BNE/SYD/MEL. Possibly also AKL-OOL.

VA Axed Routes (and potential replacements).
* Remaining DPS operations handed to GA in a JV.
* BNE-LAX and MEL-LAX handed to DL. VA maintains SYD-LAX to provide the 2nd frequency for the VA/DL TransPacific JV. Alternatively, BNE-LAX could be the sole route maintained by VA in the JV whilst DL takes over SYD-LAX (double daily) and MEL-LAX.
* All other NZ & Pacific Island routes terminated.


Holy s..t, that’s quite the impressive set of dominoes you have lined up for that prediction.

Even if SQ or EY sold out of VA can’t see significant changes to their Velocity partnership. I remember reading a while ago that EY’s business cabins ex AU started filling more once they were able to tap VA’s customer base, to cut that off would be a grave mistake. Remember EY was browsing for an Australian partner after they’re partnership with QF fizzled after about 30 seconds. EY likes to have partners in every market, they’re list of codeshare partners on Wikipedia is impressive/ridiculous depending on your view.

SQ is big enough to survive by itself, but having VA’s customer base certainly doesn’t hurt. Also even if VA did join Skyteam, SE Asia wouldn’t be adequately covered for corporate clients by Skyteam, they’re not going to go via Jakarta instead of Singapore, and Seoul is too far north, put simply VA needs SQ, and the combined SQ/MI network offers a premium brand in direct completion to Qantas and 3K.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:26 pm
by Crackshot
oskarclare wrote:
Crackshot wrote:
I remember reading in one of the earlier threads that Tianjin Airlines was applying to fly to BNE. Any update on this?


An announcement should be made soon for a CKG-BNE start in September!


Good news!

Obzerva wrote:
MH returning to BNE?


Didn't the airline executives say this was a matter of when, not if? I could see this when the A350's start coming in earnest. It wouldn't be a 350 route, but it would free up a 332 or 333 for the route no?

Obzerva wrote:
QF announcing further routes is an obvious one for the 787


Off the top of my head, they've already announced MEL-PER-LHR, MEL-SFO and BNE-LAX-JFK to downgrade from the 744 to 789 later this year (did I miss any?) BNE-ORD is the most widely rumoured one. BNE-SFO is my dark horse.

Obzerva wrote:
VA announcing another city to HKG or possibly mainland China


I could definitely see BNE-HKG.

Obzerva wrote:
JQ steady as she goes or more?


I'm inclined to agree with qf789 on this one.

qf789 wrote:
I would expect JQ to add new routes as needed. It will interesting to see how they use A320/321neos once they start arriving. If they can replace a route such as BNE-DPS with a A321neo they would have some more flexibility in the 788 fleet, perhaps look at another route to China


Obzerva wrote:
TT replacing 320’s with 737s, international ops? Clearly not DPS.


If they start experimenting with international ones I suspect they'd favour NZ.

Obzerva wrote:
NH or JL and another Chinese carrier to PER


Speaking of JL, anyone else think a return to BNE is in the cards, if not this year then in the next five?

Obzerva wrote:
And more Chinese carriers, it’s just a given ;)


Safe bet:) Hell, BNE alone has gotten MU, CA and HU in the last year alone, with Tianjin apparently a matter of time. Xiamen as well maybe?

Obzerva wrote:
TK announce flying to AU


Risky pick, but interesting. They're certainly ambitious enough. I wonder, if they did started (I'm not as confident as you certainly ;) ), which city they'd go through? I could see BKK or KUL, and it would definitely be to SYD.

My own predictions - LA and VN announce BNE. I'd also guess QR, but aren't they restricted to where they can fly? Hard to believe they wouldn't have done it by now otherwise. It would be a good 787 or 350 route.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:27 pm
by eamondzhang
Just my 1c:
sq256 wrote:
My Left Field predictions:

* China Southern defects from SkyTeam to Oneworld (per the ongoing rumours in the Media)

I don't think it would happen anytime soon, especially since CX is still in OW.
sq256 wrote:
* Hainan Group carriers joins Skyteam to fill void left by China Southern's defection to OW.

Only if MU approves it ;)
sq256 wrote:
* Borghetti is booted/leaves the VA CEO role.
* SQ subsequently sells their VA stake, and gradually scales back VA partnership.
* Etihad may maintain Europe partnership with VA, but may also sell their VA stake in favour of bailing out Alitalia (A bigger financial basketcase than VA).
* NZ and VA revert to being rivals on the Trans-Tasman route when the JV ends in late 2018.
* Virgin Australia joins Skyteam with Delta sponsorship, joining part shareholder Hainan group.

VA has mentioned a lot of times that they're not interested in alliances. And given their cash position plus the huge costs associated with joining (easily running upwards of $100 mil), I don't see it join any alliances anytime soon. BUT, sacking their CEO seems predictable, as well as the relationship with NZ & SQ. But NZ still needs VA to cover smaller cities like ABX, MQL or even CBR, so who knows.
sq256 wrote:
* Tigerair: Nadi and Queenstown from BNE/SYD/MEL. Possibly also AKL-OOL.

I do think TT will take over the majority of leisure-oriented international routes (including DPS since I believe they've got the 737 on their own certificate).

For the others, I really have no idea. I personally would hope the official announcement of SYD's new terminal plan and MEL's T5 since both desperately need the space, but who knows. I believe we may also see some orders coming from QF, but I won't limit that to 787 (it could be A330neo, A350, A320neo, 737max, idk). QF might also be interested in expanding its 717 fleet if they can source the plane.

I don't think we'll see many new international carriers expanding into Australia for 2018. Maybe 2 or 3, but that's probably about it IMHO.

Michael

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:28 pm
by Crackshot
qf789 wrote:
Another one, Ethiopian add services to Australia


If they did, I'd predict it would be to PER. Then again, given they have a solid number of fifth-freedom or stopover routes, maybe via BKK to SYD?

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:44 pm
by dredgy
Turkish announcing service to Australia is quite likely - don’t they do that every other year? :p

China Southern entering oneworld would be amazing given the dominance of QFF in Australia, but can’t see it happening. Would be a great airline to be able to redeem points on.

Ethiopian adding services to Australia? That seems a stretch, though it would be awesome. PER to ADD is a long flight and wouldn’t offer any quicker connection to Europe than through Asia. Most Australian connections to Africa would be with South Africa, which is directly connected. Fifth freedom (particularly through BKK) to the east coast MIGHT work. Is there a plane capable of SYD to ADD? Stronger connections to Central/East Africa there.

I have very few of my own predictions - though I do bet BNE-ORD will be announced and am excited for future China routes. If Jetstar is performing well to Zhengzhou, then maybe a new Chinese route for them.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:48 pm
by IndianicWorld
For the prediction about LA announcing BNE this year, can’t see that one sorry. They only launched MEL-SCL in October at 3 x weekly, which one would assume they would try and build frequency on that route first.

As for VN at BNE, a stronger possibility. I also can see MEL-HAN launching in 2018 or 2019, especially with the SYD-HAN service up and running, which has increased to a daily frequency.

As for China, who knows. It will depend on politics too. The growth depends on relations between the 2 countries remaining strong so we will see.

There’s certainly new opportunities in the China market, but at the same time there will be a point that services hit a peak due to slots, demand or appetite to subsidise existing or new services by Chinese regional governments.

Crackshot wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Another one, Ethiopian add services to Australia


If they did, I'd predict it would be to PER. Then again, given they have a solid number of fifth-freedom or stopover routes, maybe via BKK to SYD?


ET have previously stated they are looking at MEL. I haven’t seen them state PER myself, but this was discussed on this forum during 2017 and it made for some interesting discussion.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:50 pm
by Obzerva
I could add an extreme left field one:
MEL airport updating their app so that on the departures/arrivals pages VA is no longer referred to as “V Australia”

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:04 pm
by Crackshot
IndianicWorld wrote:
For the prediction about LA announcing BNE this year, can’t see that one sorry. They only launched MEL-SCL in October at 3 x weekly, which one would assume they would try and build frequency on that route first.


Maybe not this year, but I suspect we'll see it in the next five. This could just be wishful thinking on my part lol.

IndianicWorld wrote:
ET have previously stated they are looking at MEL. I haven’t seen them state PER myself, but this was discussed on this forum during 2017 and it made for some interesting discussion.


I didn't see that, it does make more sense, I just assumed PER because they have Mauritius and South African, but come to think of it (geographically speaking) an ADD-PER flight is a bit more logistically challenging, no? Especially since they'd want a more stronger market, so MEL makes sense. I still stick with my prediction it would be via BKK. Would the 787 or 77L have the legs for a non-stop?

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:58 pm
by Crackshot
Crackshot wrote:
Off the top of my head, they've already announced MEL-PER-LHR, MEL-SFO and BNE-LAX-JFK to downgrade from the 744 to 789 later this year (did I miss any?) BNE-ORD is the most widely rumoured one. BNE-SFO is my dark horse..


Just want to clarify that I believe ORD will be the first announced; I think SFO (and DFW) are in the cards for future routes.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:09 pm
by bunumuring
Hey guys,
Predictions for 2018?
QF to announce Brisbane - Dallas when the second tranche of Dreamliners (eight x -9s) is announced in the third quarter of the year.
QF to announce Chicago as its next US destination in the first quarter.
Project Sunrise expanded to include the narrow body replacement as well... As in a 'package deal' a la the A380/A330 deal all of those years ago.
QF to launch a new indigenous colourscheme in the third quarter.
JQ neos to open up some interesting new routes.... And new destinations in Asia.
VA to have ownership changes again and begin downsizing across the board in a similar way to what QF did years ago.
Sydney West Airport to get a lot of media attention with the terminal design process becoming more transparent and at least one overseas airline announcing a high profile deal with the state government over route commitments from SWA.
Canberra to get a third international airline, after Qatar starts in the first quarter.
Turkish to make noise - again - about starting Australian services but remains non-commital about when, stopovers and equipment. Perhaps waiting for its soon to be confirmed Dreamliners? It would be a great publicity announcement when firming its order.
Ethiopian likewise to talk about Australian services. I agree with others above that Perth and Melbourne seem more likely than Sydney to be the destination, but I wouldn't rule anything out.
Norwegian to announce SOMETHING 'Australian' towards he end of the year IF they survive long
enough....
The fragmentation and expansion of the Indonesian market to begin towards the end of 2018, similar to what has happened with China over the past few years but to a much lesser scale. Citilink for example, could use its neos to enter the market to Australia.
And my dream announcement for 2018 (ie unlikely to happen, but whoa if it did!!!): Sydney-Seattle launched by Delta in a JV with Virgin Australia....
Cheers,
Bunumuring

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:16 pm
by Whoopeecock
Not a good look for Qantas. More so when you read a lot of the comments.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-t ... t-its-game

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:37 pm
by MooLor
Whoopeecock wrote:
Not a good look for Qantas. More so when you read a lot of the comments.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-t ... t-its-game


The same article appeared on Australian Fairfax websites last week, and the comments were if anything worse.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/if-qantas-is-the-spirit-of-australia-that-spirit-needs-to-lift-its-game-20171228-h0aw9w.html

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:41 pm
by Obzerva
Whoopeecock wrote:
Not a good look for Qantas. More so when you read a lot of the comments.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-t ... t-its-game


To be fair to QF, there was more than a touch of pro NZ nationalism in those comments, QF is hardly to blame for Australia’s accent. Judging by some of the spelling, I doubt there’s many high yielding corporate clients amongst those posting there.

Ignoring the comments, yes, the article is a concern from an image perspective.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:46 pm
by LamboAston
Also I have heard that EY will start AUH-ADL-WLG on the 789 in October

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:11 pm
by oskarclare
Predictions for BNE:

EY add a second daily flight with 789
Tianjin start BNE in September
Malaysia start BNE mid year
Royal Brunei start with a320Neo in the latter part of the year
NH start a BNE-TYO around the 3rd-4th quarter
Xiamen and Sichuan start routes from China in the 3rdq (18) -1stq (19)
Vietnam may be this year or next year
Not mention Philippines that will start non-stoppers from March
Jetstar is increasing BNE-DPS to daily from 1 FEB 18

I also hope when JQ get there A321neos they look at expanding from BNE for a change cause they have nothing from BNE except DPS

I feel like this will be a big year for BNE.

Cheers Oskar

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:48 pm
by zkncj
[quote="eamondzhang"
* NZ and VA revert to being rivals on the Trans-Tasman route when the JV ends in late 2018.
* Virgin Australia joins Skyteam with Delta sponsorship, joining part shareholder Hainan group.[/quote]
VA has mentioned a lot of times that they're not interested in alliances. And given their cash position plus the huge costs associated with joining (easily running upwards of $100 mil), I don't see it join any alliances anytime soon. BUT, sacking their CEO seems predictable, as well as the relationship with NZ & SQ. But NZ still needs VA to cover smaller cities like ABX, MQL or even CBR, so who knows.
[/quote]

NZ/VA relationship seems to be more torn over the last 24months, with the latest being NZ stopping earning on VA other than the Tasman/Domestic. It feels like they are doing everything to try push VA away from the relationship, and not look like the bad guys in the break-up.

With NZ having the A321NEO's arriving in late 2018 it could be an prefect time to see the relationship, while not losing to much seating capacity. NZ has hinted at the 321NEOs being 220-230 all Y so much pretty much could make it up for VA on some route e.g. AKL-OOL daily with an NZ A321NEO would probably be an good mix.

Also with the increased 787/777 short-haul usage ex-AKL it has started to free up some of the A320 fleet, which we could see deployed onto additional routes. MCY seems to be doing pretty well ex-AKL, so 2018 could be the year we see some more regional routes added to the network e.g AKL/WLG-CBR, AKL-BNK

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:22 am
by qf789
Obzerva wrote:
Whoopeecock wrote:
Not a good look for Qantas. More so when you read a lot of the comments.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-t ... t-its-game


To be fair to QF, there was more than a touch of pro NZ nationalism in those comments, QF is hardly to blame for Australia’s accent. Judging by some of the spelling, I doubt there’s many high yielding corporate clients amongst those posting there.

Ignoring the comments, yes, the article is a concern from an image perspective.


Agreed, I would add according to the article the flight was delayed which would have set the scene for the whole flight

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:35 am
by Bluebird191
oskarclare wrote:
Predictions for BNE:

EY add a second daily flight with 789
Tianjin start BNE in September
Malaysia start BNE mid year
Royal Brunei start with a320Neo in the latter part of the year
NH start a BNE-TYO around the 3rd-4th quarter
Xiamen and Sichuan start routes from China in the 3rdq (18) -1stq (19)
Vietnam may be this year or next year
Not mention Philippines that will start non-stoppers from March
Jetstar is increasing BNE-DPS to daily from 1 FEB 18

I also hope when JQ get there A321neos they look at expanding from BNE for a change cause they have nothing from BNE except DPS

I feel like this will be a big year for BNE.


PR have already pretty much confirmed dropping the DRW tag and swapping to the A321neo - was reported by AusBT last month.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:47 am
by qf789
Bluebird191 wrote:
oskarclare wrote:
Predictions for BNE:

EY add a second daily flight with 789
Tianjin start BNE in September
Malaysia start BNE mid year
Royal Brunei start with a320Neo in the latter part of the year
NH start a BNE-TYO around the 3rd-4th quarter
Xiamen and Sichuan start routes from China in the 3rdq (18) -1stq (19)
Vietnam may be this year or next year
Not mention Philippines that will start non-stoppers from March
Jetstar is increasing BNE-DPS to daily from 1 FEB 18

I also hope when JQ get there A321neos they look at expanding from BNE for a change cause they have nothing from BNE except DPS

I feel like this will be a big year for BNE.


PR have already pretty much confirmed dropping the DRW tag and swapping to the A321neo - was reported by AusBT last month.


Here's the link to the story

https://www.ausbt.com.au/philippine-air ... ource=hero

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:57 am
by DeltaB717
EY on AUH-ADL-WLG is an interesting one, I like it :)

I personally think we will see QF announce BNE-PER-CDG before we see a 2nd US destination from them, unless they announce a split schedule similar to MEL-LAX/SFO (which I also don't think is likely) - QF has put a lot of effort into being able to operate a daily B789 service to CDG, and I don't think they'd be 'cute' enough to throw that back in France's face.

I do agree with many of the other suggestions, especially:
* Project Sunrise being expanded to include the narrowbody replacement;
* ET announcing an Australian service (I predict MEL on their own metal and perhaps PER, SYD and/or BNE via codeshare - although, that said, I know they have also considered PER, despite saying publicly they're thinking MEL);
* a third international carrier for CBR (I predict NZ to AKL, or curve ball of CX to HKG);
* JQ BNE-DPS switch to A321neo, and the B788 used for a new China route;
* JL at PER, codeshare with QF;
* ownership changes at VA.

I don't really see much changing at VA network-wise, and I have my doubts as to whether the 'VA Mint' thing (I hate that it's still being called that!) will actually be announced, let alone happen. One has to wonder what's happened with the intended transfer of VA B738s to TT, which seems to have stalled, but presumably they're waiting on MAXs to start arriving at VA to release some of the NGs? There is quite a bit of pressure on the VA B738 fleet with the E190s all but gone, one A330 already 'dedicated' to international and another international route to be announced. I do think TT coming back to limited international operations is possible, but I doubt it will be Indonesia in the short term (that relationship is very dented) and I seriously doubt VA would be silly enough to put TT on Fiji, a capacity-constrained route where they can command a yield premium with their J class and Economy X.

A couple of my own suggestions:
* more QF B717s (beyond the 11 already done and one more to go) will be reconfigured into 12J/98Y, likely routes including some ADL-PER, possibly some ADL-CBR, and potentially taking over some or all of the remaining 125Y Qld/NT network;
* NH to BNE (or JL, but I think NH);
* QF announces PER-AKL year-round (perhaps less than daily during some periods, but year-round nonetheless); and
* if QF announces a second DFW route, it will be BNE at perhaps 3x weekly on the B744 released from LAX, to be switched to daily B789 with a future order (i.e. frames 9-xx) arriving.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:09 am
by DeltaB717
RE: the possibility of NZ ending their relationship with VA at the expiry of the current JV.

Someone mentioned that NZ needs VA for links to regional ports like ABX, MQL, CBR. I contend this is not necessarily the case, as NZ could instead:
* form a codeshare or interline relationship with ZL for most regional routes that VA operates, and do the same with TL over CNS to reach DRW; and
* add its own AKL-CBR service (as I mentioned in my earlier post), A320, timed to connect over AKL with the North and South America routes.

That would leave a few Qld routes (ROK, TSV, GLT), for which they could easily add their own services, codeshare with QQ, partner with Queensland Rail, or, if they felt so inclined, base a couple of their own aircraft in BNE under the SAM provisions. (What they would do about secondary WA (BME, KTA, etc.), I don't know, but surely they could come up with something.)

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:22 am
by sq256
^^

NZ could also start their own AKL-NTL/ROK/TSV services, used by the freed up A320s once the A321neos arrive (in addition to partially covering the costs of immigration staff commuting to/from those ports (in conjunction with local councils and/or the state governments) at those larger regional ports) to cover the loss of VA capacity should the Trans-Tasman JV end from late 2018.

I do agree a interline agreement with REX, QQ or TL could cover other medium-sized regional ports across the East Coast of AU.

AKL-CBR shouldn't be much of a problem to start for NZ as there is already permanent immigration staff based at CBR.

AKL-DRW may also be a possibility with the A320NEO or A321NEO to connect into the TL regional network across NT and regional WA.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:26 am
by Bluebird191
qf789 wrote:
Bluebird191 wrote:
oskarclare wrote:
Predictions for BNE:

EY add a second daily flight with 789
Tianjin start BNE in September
Malaysia start BNE mid year
Royal Brunei start with a320Neo in the latter part of the year
NH start a BNE-TYO around the 3rd-4th quarter
Xiamen and Sichuan start routes from China in the 3rdq (18) -1stq (19)
Vietnam may be this year or next year
Not mention Philippines that will start non-stoppers from March
Jetstar is increasing BNE-DPS to daily from 1 FEB 18

I also hope when JQ get there A321neos they look at expanding from BNE for a change cause they have nothing from BNE except DPS

I feel like this will be a big year for BNE.


PR have already pretty much confirmed dropping the DRW tag and swapping to the A321neo - was reported by AusBT last month.


Here's the link to the story

https://www.ausbt.com.au/philippine-air ... ource=hero


Thanks! Got lazy in my lack of time earlier when posting from the iPad to go hunting for the story.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:33 am
by planemanofnz
sq256 wrote:
AKL-CBR shouldn't be much of a problem to start for NZ as there is already permanent immigration staff based at CBR.

TSV should be the same, given existing international services to the likes of POM (PX).

IMO, CBR and HBA will be added by NZ first - well before DRW, TSV, NTL and/or ROK.

Cheers,

C.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:56 am
by qf789
Later this month the Federal government is expected to announce major security upgrades for regional airports including some remote locations

https://blueswandaily.com/australia-exp ... -jan-2018/

The DIBP has stated that India has emerged as Australia's fastest growing source market for tourist arrivals, up 15% to Oct 2017 on the previous year

https://blueswandaily.com/online-visas- ... -arrivals/

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:56 am
by Goodbye
Whoopeecock wrote:
Not a good look for Qantas. More so when you read a lot of the comments.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-t ... t-its-game


Been this way for years with QF. Down the bottom end of my list for international travel, without a doubt. Always met with surly, disinterested cabin crew who seem more bothered about their weekend plans than actually providing any kind of service.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:04 am
by qf789
VA looses passenger bags after changing baggage handler in AKL

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... s-complain

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:18 am
by mariner
Obzerva wrote:
To be fair to QF, there was more than a touch of pro NZ nationalism in those comments, QF is hardly to blame for Australia’s accent. Judging by some of the spelling, I doubt there’s many high yielding corporate clients amongst those posting there.

Ignoring the comments, yes, the article is a concern from an image perspective.


The writer isn't Kiwi, she's an Australian a journalist working for Fairfax in Melbourne - Gabrielle Costa. I guess she was looking for a story on which to hang her hat - it's a thin time of year for news - and anything negative about Qantas was bound to get attention.

As for the comments, a number of them are trolls - airline trolls - who turn up on just about any article about airlines with nothing positive to say. There's one who writes that he hasn't flown Qantas since Alan Joyce came in and ruined it. How does he know it's ruined if he doesn't fly it?

mariner

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:28 am
by JBusworth
DeltaB717 wrote:
EY on AUH-ADL-WLG is an interesting one, I like it :)

I personally think we will see QF announce BNE-PER-CDG before we see a 2nd US destination from them, unless they announce a split schedule similar to MEL-LAX/SFO (which I also don't think is likely) - QF has put a lot of effort into being able to operate a daily B789 service to CDG, and I don't think they'd be 'cute' enough to throw that back in France's face.



QF can't operate BNE-PER-CDG with the current lot of 789s because they are operating the BNE-LAX-JFK which means there isn't enough time in the schedule for such a service. They have also stated that they will start either DFW, ORD or SEA from BNE as the next route.

My predictions
A mass Boeing order from QF (737max, 789 and 779)
QF announces BNE-ORD as 2nd US route
QF announces SYD-PER-CDG and SYD-SFO as routes for the second batch of 789s
VA adds SYD-HKG and MEL-PEK
TT restarts international ops
JL announces PER-NRT
NZ announces AKL-CBR
CZ announces intention to leave Skyteam for Oneworld and strengthens QF partnership
CX brings more A350s to Australia

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:49 am
by qf789
JBusworth wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
EY on AUH-ADL-WLG is an interesting one, I like it :)

I personally think we will see QF announce BNE-PER-CDG before we see a 2nd US destination from them, unless they announce a split schedule similar to MEL-LAX/SFO (which I also don't think is likely) - QF has put a lot of effort into being able to operate a daily B789 service to CDG, and I don't think they'd be 'cute' enough to throw that back in France's face.



QF can't operate BNE-PER-CDG with the current lot of 789s because they are operating the BNE-LAX-JFK which means there isn't enough time in the schedule for such a service. They have also stated that they will start either DFW, ORD or SEA from BNE as the next route.

My predictions
A mass Boeing order from QF (737max, 789 and 779)
QF announces BNE-ORD as 2nd US route
QF announces SYD-PER-CDG and SYD-SFO as routes for the second batch of 789s
VA adds SYD-HKG and MEL-PEK
TT restarts international ops
JL announces PER-NRT
NZ announces AKL-CBR
CZ announces intention to leave Skyteam for Oneworld and strengthens QF partnership
CX brings more A350s to Australia


I agree that BNE-PER-CDG cannot be done as a daily flight (QF was confident they could operate it as a daily flight) with BNE-LAX-JFK

On aircraft orders I am pretty sure we wont see a mass order, it is not how QF goes about ordering aircraft and history shows that. I personally think we will see a few 789's ordered plus the decision on the A350 vs 777X which I think will be 777-8's, probably 6-10 to start with. We wont see QF order any 737MAX's until the 797 programme is announced, we could see an order for those 2 combined but not this year

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:04 am
by HM7
Could QF split the second pair of Brisbane 787s on different routes, ie 4 days ord 3 days sfo?

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:11 am
by qf789
HM7 wrote:
Could QF split the second pair of Brisbane 787s on different routes, ie 4 days ord 3 days sfo?


Yes its possible

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:50 am
by Vio
What about the news about the Australian government grating visas to foreign pilots to fly in Australia? For now, it seems like 2 years is the term, with possible extension.

I personally would jump all over that. I've been dreaming of moving from Canada down under for many years. I was there in Sept and got a chance to go a Qantaslink roadshow. It seems like a solid company and considering I fly for a regional airline in Canada, on the same aircraft Quantaslink operates, I would have a decent shot at a job.

I also have family that lives in Australia (close relatives) so it would be amazing.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ign-flyers

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:02 am
by Obzerva
mariner wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
To be fair to QF, there was more than a touch of pro NZ nationalism in those comments, QF is hardly to blame for Australia’s accent. Judging by some of the spelling, I doubt there’s many high yielding corporate clients amongst those posting there.

Ignoring the comments, yes, the article is a concern from an image perspective.


The writer isn't Kiwi, she's an Australian a journalist working for Fairfax in Melbourne - Gabrielle Costa. I guess she was looking for a story on which to hang her hat - it's a thin time of year for news - and anything negative about Qantas was bound to get attention.

As for the comments, a number of them are trolls - airline trolls - who turn up on just about any article about airlines with nothing positive to say. There's one who writes that he hasn't flown Qantas since Alan Joyce came in and ruined it. How does he know it's ruined if he doesn't fly it?

mariner


Sorry, I wasn't clear, when I said there was pro NZ nationalism in the comments, I meant the comments on the article, not the writer herself.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:05 am
by qf789
VH-OJU is on her way back to BNE after diverting to HNL a few days ago

https://www.flightradar24.com/QFA6002/100130a0

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:10 am
by downdata
Vio wrote:
What about the news about the Australian government grating visas to foreign pilots to fly in Australia? For now, it seems like 2 years is the term, with possible extension.

I personally would jump all over that. I've been dreaming of moving from Canada down under for many years. I was there in Sept and got a chance to go a Qantaslink roadshow. It seems like a solid company and considering I fly for a regional airline in Canada, on the same aircraft Quantaslink operates, I would have a decent shot at a job.

I also have family that lives in Australia (close relatives) so it would be amazing.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ign-flyers


What about US regionals? Sounds like you can land a jet command in 2 years over there.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:19 am
by Obzerva
zkncj wrote:
[quote="eamondzhang"
* NZ and VA revert to being rivals on the Trans-Tasman route when the JV ends in late 2018.
* Virgin Australia joins Skyteam with Delta sponsorship, joining part shareholder Hainan group.

VA has mentioned a lot of times that they're not interested in alliances. And given their cash position plus the huge costs associated with joining (easily running upwards of $100 mil), I don't see it join any alliances anytime soon. BUT, sacking their CEO seems predictable, as well as the relationship with NZ & SQ. But NZ still needs VA to cover smaller cities like ABX, MQL or even CBR, so who knows.
[/quote]

NZ/VA relationship seems to be more torn over the last 24months, with the latest being NZ stopping earning on VA other than the Tasman/Domestic. It feels like they are doing everything to try push VA away from the relationship, and not look like the bad guys in the break-up.

With NZ having the A321NEO's arriving in late 2018 it could be an prefect time to see the relationship, while not losing to much seating capacity. NZ has hinted at the 321NEOs being 220-230 all Y so much pretty much could make it up for VA on some route e.g. AKL-OOL daily with an NZ A321NEO would probably be an good mix.

Also with the increased 787/777 short-haul usage ex-AKL it has started to free up some of the A320 fleet, which we could see deployed onto additional routes. MCY seems to be doing pretty well ex-AKL, so 2018 could be the year we see some more regional routes added to the network e.g AKL/WLG-CBR, AKL-BNK[/quote]

VA have also stopped any points accreditation on NZ for anything east of GIS, now that NZ is no longer a shareholder in VA they don't have to besties, but they can have a mutually agreeable relationship which supports each other on routes where it works best.
It'd be nicer if VA and NZ also helped each out a little more where they don't compete against each other.
one example for of that for each would be
NZ having points earn on VA to POM
VA having points earn on NZ to EZE

I can't see either starting competition against the other on those examples, so if the relationship is going to continue, perhaps a little support for each other outside of the Tasman wouldn't be too much to ask?

(realistically though, I see the chances of NZ going it alone and ending the relationship with VA to be far higher)

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:23 am
by DeltaB717
qf789 wrote:
VH-OJU is on her way back to BNE after diverting to HNL a few days ago

https://www.flightradar24.com/QFA6002/100130a0


From where she will operate a very delayed QF15 to LAX late this evening - there was no QF16 arrival today due to no QF15 departure on Sunday (that airframe time was used to cover for VH-OEF operating the NYE Antarctica flight out of MEL).

sq256 wrote:
AKL-DRW may also be a possibility with the A320NEO or A321NEO to connect into the TL regional network across NT and regional WA.


I'd not thought of that, but yes, their A321neo would likely be capable of AKL-DRW for connections to northern-WA on TL.

JBusworth wrote:
QF ... have also stated that they will start either DFW, ORD or SEA from BNE as the next route.


Do you have a link for this? All I can remember seeing is that DFW, ORD or SEA would be the next US route, not necessarily the next route overall.

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2018

Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:33 am
by Vio
downdata wrote:
What about US regionals? Sounds like you can land a jet command in 2 years over there.


While I love visiting the US and have many friends that live there, it's not for me. Australia is a lot closer to what I'm looking for in life. It's very similar to Canada, culturally speaking. My sister also lives there.