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SQ22
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Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:12 pm

Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

Link to previous thread of 2017:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355717
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:25 pm

BenflysDTW wrote:
The more growth in passenger numbers we see at DTW the better... I think the growth rates will be much better next year than this year.




I agree with that. As more airlines encroach on Delta's market share the more they will add capacity. Expect to see new international flight being announced next year. Her is something I don't understand with DTW-PDX being only 1 daily all these years and AS struggling to keep this route year round why would NK chose DTW-PDX where there are so many more better opportunities out there other than a route that struggles to be operated year round on a daily basis. When I see something like that it kind of invalidates the fact of what will work and what won't based on the data and hard numbers that are out there because clearly the O/D between DTW and PDX doesn't justify three or four daily flights let alone by three different carriers there are markets that have zero competition on them out of Detroit that are bigger.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:02 pm

klm617 wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
The more growth in passenger numbers we see at DTW the better... I think the growth rates will be much better next year than this year.




I agree with that. As more airlines encroach on Delta's market share the more they will add capacity. Expect to see new international flight being announced next year. Her is something I don't understand with DTW-PDX being only 1 daily all these years and AS struggling to keep this route year round why would NK chose DTW-PDX where there are so many more better opportunities out there other than a route that struggles to be operated year round on a daily basis. When I see something like that it kind of invalidates the fact of what will work and what won't based on the data and hard numbers that are out there because clearly the O/D between DTW and PDX doesn't justify three or four daily flights let alone by three different carriers there are markets that have zero competition on them out of Detroit that are bigger.

Airline analysts think it does justify three carriers flying 3.5 flights every day, and I'd think they know better than any a.nutter (you or me).
"You know, if you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything, wouldn't you, at any time? And you would achieve nothing!" - Margaret Thatcher
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:36 pm

3.5 flights/day? Delta gutted there plans for 1+ flights a day when AS cut Jan-Mar Service!
 
2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:47 pm

BenflysDTW wrote:
3.5 flights/day? Delta gutted there plans for 1+ flights a day when AS cut Jan-Mar Service!

I haven't done full research, but I think there is seasonal variation in the route.
My point (that Airline analysts know better than a.nutters) stands.
"You know, if you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything, wouldn't you, at any time? And you would achieve nothing!" - Margaret Thatcher
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:46 pm

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
3.5 flights/day? Delta gutted there plans for 1+ flights a day when AS cut Jan-Mar Service!

I haven't done full research, but I think there is seasonal variation in the route.
My point (that Airline analysts know better than a.nutters) stands.


Exactly so MAN, DUB, WAW and DXB might be doable from DTW so one should never say never. If 3 carriers feel they can coexist on DTW-PDX then the possibilities are endless for DTW
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:37 pm

I think that DL is doing 1 flight a day during the summer season. Does anyone know when n674us is taking off tomorrow? I have a day off work and I want to catch it.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:24 pm

Comment from another thread. "Aer Lingus have indicated that DEN, MSP, BWI, and DTW are on their list of desirable US destinations - this was said by the CEO to the irish media a few days before they announced Seattle." There you go WCAA the ball is in your court make it happen. Delta doesn't want it so start courting EI don't let this one get away like you did with QR.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:33 pm

BenflysDTW wrote:
I think that DL is doing 1 flight a day during the summer season. Does anyone know when n674us is taking off tomorrow? I have a day off work and I want to catch it.


FR24 says 3:30pm
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:51 pm

FR24 says 3:30pm[/quote]

Thanks! DL 8905. Flight doesn’t show up on my phone for some reason...
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:45 am

NK has MYR at 10x weekly this summer, that aircraft will be doing DFW on the days it won’t be on MYR. There is a lot going on with NK at DTW and I expect there to be much more come 2019.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:45 am

...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:38 am

flymco753 wrote:



Right there in the first paragraph they are out there talking to airports and mention specifically Detroit this should be a slam dunk for the WCAA. New route maximum incentives should be offered Delta has shown us they don't want to do DTW-DUB by snubbing us when they added BOS-DUB.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
kavok
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:55 am

flymco753 wrote:


Realistically, I only see two possible European additions to DTW right now (beyond frequency changes to existing markets):

1- I view EI DTW-DUB as the most likely TATL addition to DTW.

2- The second most likely addition I could see would be DL serving DTW-DUB in response.


DTW-MAN/WAW/DUS/etc. is not going to happen. The market is not there to fill the front cabin on those routes. Sorry, but the big hole in the DTW market is the TATL LCC. WOW will help some, but IE would be a good fit for that reason (even though IE is not full fledged LCC).

LH is not going to add MUC. They would go double daily on DTW-FRA before adding MUC. LH makes a good portion of their profit on the DTW route connecting pax in FRA onto India. If they are going to add a second flight, it will be to FRA to better flow the India connections.

BA is also not coming back, as even DL has struggled making the second LHR flight work from DTW. If IAG adds DTW, it will be with IE.
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:02 am

Congrats on making it to 2018 guys! Lets hope Klm’s DTW plans happen by 2030, as that’s when DTW Airport said they expected the growth phase to be complete.
Hi, I'm TryToFlySomeday. A guy who likes to analyze airlines, and loves road trips & airplane trips. Founder of the Roadgeeking Section and Pakistan Aviation Threads.

American-born Pakistani based in ORD. Favorite cities: ORD / GRR / DTW
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:02 am

kavok wrote:
flymco753 wrote:


Realistically, I only see two possible European additions to DTW right now (beyond frequency changes to existing markets):

1- I view EI DTW-DUB as the most likely TATL addition to DTW.

2- The second most likely addition I could see would be DL serving DTW-DUB in response.


DTW-MAN/WAW/DUS/etc. is not going to happen. The market is not there to fill the front cabin on those routes. Sorry, but the big hole in the DTW market is the TATL LCC. WOW will help some, but IE would be a good fit for that reason (even though IE is not full fledged LCC).

LH is not going to add MUC. They would go double daily on DTW-FRA before adding MUC. LH makes a good portion of their profit on the DTW route connecting pax in FRA onto India. If they are going to add a second flight, it will be to FRA to better flow the India connections.

BA is also not coming back, as even DL has struggled making the second LHR flight work from DTW. If IAG adds DTW, it will be with IE.
I assume you mean EI not
IE? What do you think of BCN? Isn’t it slightly larger than DUB by a hair? I’m interested to see if someone can do BCN even though we all know DL won’t do Spain from DTW.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:07 am

klm617 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
3.5 flights/day? Delta gutted there plans for 1+ flights a day when AS cut Jan-Mar Service!

I haven't done full research, but I think there is seasonal variation in the route.
My point (that Airline analysts know better than a.nutters) stands.


Exactly so MAN, DUB, WAW and DXB might be doable from DTW so one should never say never. If 3 carriers feel they can coexist on DTW-PDX then the possibilities are endless for DTW

Not what I said at all. All these markets are different and work differently, so we who are ignorant should just accept that the analysts know better.
"You know, if you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything, wouldn't you, at any time? And you would achieve nothing!" - Margaret Thatcher
 
kavok
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:27 am

flymco753 wrote:
kavok wrote:
flymco753 wrote:


Realistically, I only see two possible European additions to DTW right now (beyond frequency changes to existing markets):

1- I view EI DTW-DUB as the most likely TATL addition to DTW.

2- The second most likely addition I could see would be DL serving DTW-DUB in response.


DTW-MAN/WAW/DUS/etc. is not going to happen. The market is not there to fill the front cabin on those routes. Sorry, but the big hole in the DTW market is the TATL LCC. WOW will help some, but IE would be a good fit for that reason (even though IE is not full fledged LCC).

LH is not going to add MUC. They would go double daily on DTW-FRA before adding MUC. LH makes a good portion of their profit on the DTW route connecting pax in FRA onto India. If they are going to add a second flight, it will be to FRA to better flow the India connections.

BA is also not coming back, as even DL has struggled making the second LHR flight work from DTW. If IAG adds DTW, it will be with IE.
I assume you mean EI not
IE? What do you think of BCN? Isn’t it slightly larger than DUB by a hair? I’m interested to see if someone can do BCN even though we all know DL won’t do Spain from DTW.


Yes, EI and not IE. (Typo on my part... must be too much Guinness). As for BCN, I again think DL would struggle to sell the front cabin, even with funneled connections into DTW. There would probably also be little point of sale from the BCN side.

Market wise, I view BCN as a smaller FCO (Similar pax makeup, with heavy seasonal in Y but year round struggles to sell F). Simply put, I just don’t think the business market is big enough between the two.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:58 am

kavok wrote:
flymco753 wrote:


Realistically, I only see two possible European additions to DTW right now (beyond frequency changes to existing markets):

1- I view EI DTW-DUB as the most likely TATL addition to DTW.

2- The second most likely addition I could see would be DL serving DTW-DUB in response.


DTW-MAN/WAW/DUS/etc. is not going to happen. The market is not there to fill the front cabin on those routes. Sorry, but the big hole in the DTW market is the TATL LCC. WOW will help some, but IE would be a good fit for that reason (even though IE is not full fledged LCC).

LH is not going to add MUC. They would go double daily on DTW-FRA before adding MUC. LH makes a good portion of their profit on the DTW route connecting pax in FRA onto India. If they are going to add a second flight, it will be to FRA to better flow the India connections.

BA is also not coming back, as even DL has struggled making the second LHR flight work from DTW. If IAG adds DTW, it will be with IE.


I think an add of EI would effectively be the same as BA coming back. EI would cover all of Britain something that is greatly lacking out of DTW as you have to now over fly England and transfer at AMS to get to most places in England. Another plus is EI would operate effectively as a domestic flight into Detroit giving the airport a lot of flexibility in accommodating them. It's in black and white lets see how aggressive the WCAA is in bringing them here again they would cater to a different market than DL so no real encroachment on their yields. An EI flight would bring some leakage back plus put people in the air that could not afford to fly to Europe before they entered Detroit. While I like WOW Air their longevity concerns me as a carrier. They must stay on top of their game to stay afloat once you start making the inconvenience of using the service great than the savings people will go back to driving to ORD or paying the Delta premium fare to get reliable service and from what I have read WOW really doesn't have all their ducks in a row and it can only get worse with their rapid expansion. So EI would be a nice back up if WOW fails.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:06 am

I’d like to see DTW-HKG come back on DL’s A350s - though klm617 thinks its not going to come back, I think it will within a few years.
Hi, I'm TryToFlySomeday. A guy who likes to analyze airlines, and loves road trips & airplane trips. Founder of the Roadgeeking Section and Pakistan Aviation Threads.

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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:37 pm

DL is very skiddish of doing previously scheduled routes that they’ve ended, reason why DTW-HKG sand SMF might be harder than numbers, it’ll most likely need a cash incentive.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:50 pm

flymco753 wrote:
DL is very skiddish of doing previously scheduled routes that they’ve ended, reason why DTW-HKG sand SMF might be harder than numbers, it’ll most likely need a cash incentive.


The problem with DTW-HKG is that with the KE/DL JV it's really pointless because all the major cities in the east gain one stop service to HKG thus there is no need for DTW-HKG
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
CHI2DFW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:51 pm

klm617 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
3.5 flights/day? Delta gutted there plans for 1+ flights a day when AS cut Jan-Mar Service!

I haven't done full research, but I think there is seasonal variation in the route.
My point (that Airline analysts know better than a.nutters) stands.


Exactly so MAN, DUB, WAW and DXB might be doable from DTW so one should never say never. If 3 carriers feel they can coexist on DTW-PDX then the possibilities are endless for DTW


So if 3 carriers on a 4 hour domestic flight (less than 5 daily) equates to MAN, DUB, and WAW from a city that has lost half its population the last 50 years should result in DFW and ORD having at least service to 3x the cities they have today. ORD-ATH has strong VFR (seasonal), but no flights.

Based on this logic, ORD should have flights to Athens, Auckland, Berlin, Bogota, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Düsseldorf, Edmonton, Geneva, Guayaquil, Halifax, Johannesburg, Kuwait, Lima, Milan, Nagoya, Nairobi, Osaka, Quito, Rio de Janeiro, Shannon, Sydney, Tel Aviv, etc. Endless possibilities!

And DFW, which is booming, should have more than that!
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:43 pm

klm617 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
3.5 flights/day? Delta gutted there plans for 1+ flights a day when AS cut Jan-Mar Service!

I haven't done full research, but I think there is seasonal variation in the route.
My point (that Airline analysts know better than a.nutters) stands.


Exactly so MAN, DUB, WAW and DXB might be doable from DTW so one should never say never. If 3 carriers feel they can coexist on DTW-PDX then the possibilities are endless for DTW


Groan...you do realize that statements like this are the reason people dont take Detroit posters seriously on this forum anymore??? You are SEVERELY overestimating Detroit's importance as a hub and a local market.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:52 pm

DTW-PDX might have a stimulated market we don’t know about, plus it’s better use of aircraft. International travel requires more strategic aircraft planning and is a greater risk than domestic.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:05 pm

flymco753 wrote:
DTW-PDX might have a stimulated market we don’t know about, plus it’s better use of aircraft. International travel requires more strategic aircraft planning and is a greater risk than domestic.

Thank you!!! Great point.
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:06 pm

The 747 will be gone until March!!!
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:20 pm

EI certainly seems the perfect candidate for year round service, providing an above LCC service using a beautiful new and easy connecting terminal in a city and country that's one of the hottest for tourism on the planet right now. The fact that pre clearance is also available just is icing on an already beautiful cake.

I submit that Southern Europe (Spain, Portugal and the Islands) are where money could be make, summer seasonal. So either DY (BCN) TP (LIS) Or Level seem logical to me. They would be stimulating demand, which is something people always fail to consider here.

Another thing I always notice is left out, is the amount of connections DL can swing thru to DTW INTL flights. When the market calls for 150PDEW, that O&D but blossoms in many markets when you add 300 connecting flights. With that reasoning I see DTW-ICN on KE and DTW-HKG 5 weekly on DL by 2019.

And for the record B6 DTW-MCO and DTW-JFK as will F9 DTW-AUS, DTW-TPA and a spring Caribbean I believe are in short order.
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:36 am

flymco753 wrote:
DTW-PDX might have a stimulated market we don’t know about, plus it’s better use of aircraft. International travel requires more strategic aircraft planning and is a greater risk than domestic.


Please help me with this because it is my understanding that international flights bring more return on investment than domestic do. Also saying that DTW-PDX has a market we don't know about could be said of any market out of Detroit which then would make every market viable out of Detroit to all of us that are not in the know.. If I had said 2 years ago I think PDX was undeserved and that there should be more competition on the route I would have been flamed for saying so because never in the history of DTW-PDX was it ever served year round daily just like when I make the comments about DTW-MAN but say they add it next year then all of a sudden there must have been a market we didn't know about.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:40 am

NWADTWE16 wrote:
EI certainly seems the perfect candidate for year round service, providing an above LCC service using a beautiful new and easy connecting terminal in a city and country that's one of the hottest for tourism on the planet right now. The fact that pre clearance is also available just is icing on an already beautiful cake.

I submit that Southern Europe (Spain, Portugal and the Islands) are where money could be make, summer seasonal. So either DY (BCN) TP (LIS) Or Level seem logical to me. They would be stimulating demand, which is something people always fail to consider here.

Another thing I always notice is left out, is the amount of connections DL can swing thru to DTW INTL flights. When the market calls for 150PDEW, that O&D but blossoms in many markets when you add 300 connecting flights. With that reasoning I see DTW-ICN on KE and DTW-HKG 5 weekly on DL by 2019.

And for the record B6 DTW-MCO and DTW-JFK as will F9 DTW-AUS, DTW-TPA and a spring Caribbean I believe are in short order.


I agree about EI the ball solely rests on the WCAA to make this happen an if it doesn't then the blame for it not coming to fruition rests solely on the shoulders of the WCAA for not facilitating Aer Lingus's requirements to add DTW to it's route network.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:14 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
I haven't done full research, but I think there is seasonal variation in the route.
My point (that Airline analysts know better than a.nutters) stands.


Exactly so MAN, DUB, WAW and DXB might be doable from DTW so one should never say never. If 3 carriers feel they can coexist on DTW-PDX then the possibilities are endless for DTW


Groan...you do realize that statements like this are the reason people dont take Detroit posters seriously on this forum anymore??? You are SEVERELY overestimating Detroit's importance as a hub and a local market.

Ikr. I love Detroit as a suburban metropolis, and Michigan as a whole. But klm617 is filled with nonsense.

Whatever can come to DTW will come, but only if it’s predicted to be profitable. TK to IST and DL to HKG is all I can see internationally for now. Maybe in 12 years we’ll see that DTW will reach the level ORD and YYZ is at. But not anytime earlier than 2030
Hi, I'm TryToFlySomeday. A guy who likes to analyze airlines, and loves road trips & airplane trips. Founder of the Roadgeeking Section and Pakistan Aviation Threads.

American-born Pakistani based in ORD. Favorite cities: ORD / GRR / DTW
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:02 pm

^DL could also get away with adding daily service to SJO, there’s a pretty decent market that could easily fill a 73H or A320 if you funnel in some connections. The only issue is DL won’t go out of their way to re arrange connections, DTW has a one stop and same flight number via ATL so you’re essentially taking feed away from the whole Midwest and losing a flight.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:02 pm

At most, DL would do a Sat-only seasonal DTW-SJO flight on peak Saturdays from mid-Feb through early-April.

The route would heavily have to rely upon DTW O&D though since the stage length of the flights do to a out-and-back turn on the same aircraft doesn't lend itself to feeding connections in DTW. ATL is more optimal from a network perspective from aircraft/crew routing and for connections since with ~4 hour block times from ATL, it can depart mid-morning /arrive in SJO early-afternoon and turn back to ATL to arrive in time to feed the evening connecting banks.

A DTW-SJO flight would be ~5.5 hour block time and would have to depart by 7am in turn the plane back in time to arrive early enough in the evening to hit the 8pm departure bank. 7am is too early to catch any meaningful inbound connections except for a handful intra-Michigan cities that have really early morning arrivals, but many of those don't operate in the winter and/or on weekends. So, they could only time an SJO flight to align with connecting banks in DTW on one direction, not both. If they departed closer to 9am, they wouldn't get a plane back into DTW until after 9pm and miss most connecting opportunities.

Hence, the flights that DL flies from DTW to sun destinations in the Caribbean, Mexico, and Central America have to stand alone on DTW-originating traffic.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:09 pm

flymco753 wrote:
DTW-PDX might have a stimulated market we don’t know about, plus it’s better use of aircraft. International travel requires more strategic aircraft planning and is a greater risk than domestic.

Keep in mind, some of the stuff that NK adds, particularly in Summer, is with West Coast red-eyes where they can add incremental utilization to their fleet. DTW-PDX is a evening westbound, red-eye return that could otherwise be a RON aircraft. Florida routes don't lend themselves to utilization flying as such.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:09 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
At most, DL would do a Sat-only seasonal DTW-SJO flight on peak Saturdays from mid-Feb through early-April.

The route would heavily have to rely upon DTW O&D though since the stage length of the flights do to a out-and-back turn on the same aircraft doesn't lend itself to feeding connections in DTW. ATL is more optimal from a network perspective from aircraft/crew routing and for connections since with ~4 hour block times from ATL, it can depart mid-morning /arrive in SJO early-afternoon and turn back to ATL to arrive in time to feed the evening connecting banks.

A DTW-SJO flight would be ~5.5 hour block time and would have to depart by 7am in turn the plane back in time to arrive early enough in the evening to hit the 8pm departure bank. 7am is too early to catch any meaningful inbound connections except for a handful intra-Michigan cities that have really early morning arrivals, but many of those don't operate in the winter and/or on weekends. So, they could only time an SJO flight to align with connecting banks in DTW on one direction, not both. If they departed closer to 9am, they wouldn't get a plane back into DTW until after 9pm and miss most connecting opportunities.

Hence, the flights that DL flies from DTW to sun destinations in the Caribbean, Mexico, and Central America have to stand alone on DTW-originating traffic.



At a 5.5 hour block time that also kind of limits the equipment they can use on the route where as at ATL they gave more flexibility when it come to capacity scheduling.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:18 pm

To orient the discussion here, consider where we are in the annual cycle of route planning, announcements, and seasonal flying:

In January 2018:
- All new international summer 2018 flying as been announced loaded for sale. Equipment types and frequency are relatively stable at this point.
- NK has already announced their new Summer 2018 routes, but there is still potential for some frequency changes on existing routes
- DL has not yet really made any significant adjustments to domestic Summer 2018 flying, across any of their hubs yet. We could anticipate that to happen over the next month or so with any new routes, significant frequency changes, and so forth. Preliminary equipment types will be loaded, but wouldn't really be that final until March-April time-frame

So any new international routes and carriers at this point are really for Spring/Summer 2019 at this point. Thus, at the earliest you would likely hear about any public announcement of anything would be in the summer. So you've got 6 months to postulate and speculate and bicker about what carriers/route could happen.
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:21 pm

(("Based on this logic, ORD should have flights to Athens, Auckland, Berlin, Bogota, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Düsseldorf, Edmonton, Geneva, Guayaquil, Halifax, Johannesburg, Kuwait, Lima, Milan, Nagoya, Nairobi, Osaka, Quito, Rio de Janeiro, Shannon, Sydney, Tel Aviv, etc. Endless possibilities!"))


...and that's solely on Emirates fifth freedom!
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:13 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
...
Groan...you do realize that statements like this are the reason people dont take Detroit posters seriously on this forum anymore??? You are SEVERELY overestimating Detroit's importance as a hub and a local market.


$520B GDP State should be world's number #1 aviation hub but a $490B GDP State should settle for horseless buggies. You are throwing everything possible to prove your point.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:31 pm

Was looking at some LF's and WN is running 93% LF's to MCO, why don't they extend this flight?
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:09 am

flymco753 wrote:
Was looking at some LF's and WN is running 93% LF's to MCO, why don't they extend this flight?


LF doesn’t tell the whole story; F9, for example, had similar LF but largely abandoned MCO for MIA.

You have to consider that WN operates MCO only ~8 times annually. Not only do those 8 dates represent amongst the highest demand to MCO, they also represent dates with little alternative use for the aircraft (winter Saturday’s is about as slow as it gets).

Also, consider that while WN’s MCO flights are pricing near their highest point in March, you can still get $122 tickets in February and April. NK is $75-100 most dates, including Satudays in March. Even if you add $50 for a bag, seat assignment and a soda... it’s $125-$175. No wonder F9 wanted out!

MCO is amongst the cheapest places you can fly to from DTW. There’s a significant number of people who work in Metro Detroit but live in Orlando, because of the high wages offered here vs. Florida (especially those in “contract” positions who thus avoid state income taxes). NW often in the late 1990s/2000s use to fly a DC10 (and later 753) on the 5am MCO-DTW flight to serve this crowd.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:47 pm

klm617 wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
The more growth in passenger numbers we see at DTW the better... I think the growth rates will be much better next year than this year.




I agree with that. As more airlines encroach on Delta's market share the more they will add capacity. Expect to see new international flight being announced next year. Her is something I don't understand with DTW-PDX being only 1 daily all these years and AS struggling to keep this route year round why would NK chose DTW-PDX where there are so many more better opportunities out there other than a route that struggles to be operated year round on a daily basis. When I see something like that it kind of invalidates the fact of what will work and what won't based on the data and hard numbers that are out there because clearly the O/D between DTW and PDX doesn't justify three or four daily flights let alone by three different carriers there are markets that have zero competition on them out of Detroit that are bigger.
I actually disagree, I think growth will be slow this year only because Detroit has reached its potential for 2018. I think 2018 is going to be the year of data, data in which Airlines can use to build off of in 2019 for 2019 adds. I still am firm believeng that DTW-PUJ or MBJ and a seasonal PBI is going to happen with NK for this winter, that PBI flight will be a 319 to go to BDL next summer. As for the MBJ or PUJ frame, I’m not sure yet.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:49 pm

compensateme wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Was looking at some LF's and WN is running 93% LF's to MCO, why don't they extend this flight?


LF doesn’t tell the whole story; F9, for example, had similar LF but largely abandoned MCO for MIA.

You have to consider that WN operates MCO only ~8 times annually. Not only do those 8 dates represent amongst the highest demand to MCO, they also represent dates with little alternative use for the aircraft (winter Saturday’s is about as slow as it gets).

Also, consider that while WN’s MCO flights are pricing near their highest point in March, you can still get $122 tickets in February and April. NK is $75-100 most dates, including Satudays in March. Even if you add $50 for a bag, seat assignment and a soda... it’s $125-$175. No wonder F9 wanted out!

MCO is amongst the cheapest places you can fly to from DTW. There’s a significant number of people who work in Metro Detroit but live in Orlando, because of the high wages offered here vs. Florida (especially those in “contract” positions who thus avoid state income taxes). NW often in the late 1990s/2000s use to fly a DC10 (and later 753) on the 5am MCO-DTW flight to serve this crowd.
I remember flying from Orlando to Detroit to see my grandparents and taking a DC-10 early in the morning to Detroit and late in the evening to MCO, we even were on a swap on a 747-200... boy have times changed.
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2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:29 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Exactly so MAN, DUB, WAW and DXB might be doable from DTW so one should never say never. If 3 carriers feel they can coexist on DTW-PDX then the possibilities are endless for DTW


Groan...you do realize that statements like this are the reason people dont take Detroit posters seriously on this forum anymore??? You are SEVERELY overestimating Detroit's importance as a hub and a local market.

Ikr. I love Detroit as a suburban metropolis, and Michigan as a whole. But klm617 is filled with nonsense.

Whatever can come to DTW will come, but only if it’s predicted to be profitable. TK to IST and DL to HKG is all I can see internationally for now. Maybe in 12 years we’ll see that DTW will reach the level ORD and YYZ is at. But not anytime earlier than 2030

TK is actually one of the few exceptions, because it is strangely invulnerable to losses.
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:54 am

What is the current gate situation at Detroit? Could a new entrant find gate space at Detroit? I don't recall seeing any empty gates.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:41 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
What is the current gate situation at Detroit? Could a new entrant find gate space at Detroit? I don't recall seeing any empty gates.
Plenty of open gates, there should be a terminal expansion coming soon at the D Concourse, at that point I think it'll give new entrants more room to have a gate or 2 to themselves.

On top of that, I think when the new gates are added, NK might take a few, I would hope they consolidate themselves at the north end of the terminal and push AA down to the mid section. Although I'd like to see a Concourse E extension from the south end and add 5 gates, all for NK.
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william
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:59 pm

Remember when SWA started service at a secondary Detroit airport? I forgot the name, Does it still have commercial service? Can imagine an airline like Allegiant setting up shop there.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:04 pm

william wrote:
Remember when SWA started service at a secondary Detroit airport? I forgot the name, Does it still have commercial service? Can imagine an airline like Allegiant setting up shop there.


It was called Detroit City Airport and later renamed the Colman A Young international airport and yes I agree DET would be a great place for Allegiant to set up service. At this point there is no service there.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:08 pm

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Groan...you do realize that statements like this are the reason people dont take Detroit posters seriously on this forum anymore??? You are SEVERELY overestimating Detroit's importance as a hub and a local market.

Ikr. I love Detroit as a suburban metropolis, and Michigan as a whole. But klm617 is filled with nonsense.

Whatever can come to DTW will come, but only if it’s predicted to be profitable. TK to IST and DL to HKG is all I can see internationally for now. Maybe in 12 years we’ll see that DTW will reach the level ORD and YYZ is at. But not anytime earlier than 2030

TK is actually one of the few exceptions, because it is strangely invulnerable to losses.


The problem I have with TK is that there would be no gain of service as they would drive RJ out if the market something EK would likely not do if they started DTW-DXB
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:54 am

flymco753 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
What is the current gate situation at Detroit? Could a new entrant find gate space at Detroit? I don't recall seeing any empty gates.
Plenty of open gates, there should be a terminal expansion coming soon at the D Concourse, at that point I think it'll give new entrants more room to have a gate or 2 to themselves.

On top of that, I think when the new gates are added, NK might take a few, I would hope they consolidate themselves at the north end of the terminal and push AA down to the mid section. Although I'd like to see a Concourse E extension from the south end and add 5 gates, all for NK.


I'm sorry but minor sure I understood. Does this mean there will be open gate after the terminal expansion, or that there are open gates and will be even more after the terminal expansion?
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:55 am

kitplane01 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
What is the current gate situation at Detroit? Could a new entrant find gate space at Detroit? I don't recall seeing any empty gates.
Plenty of open gates, there should be a terminal expansion coming soon at the D Concourse, at that point I think it'll give new entrants more room to have a gate or 2 to themselves.

On top of that, I think when the new gates are added, NK might take a few, I would hope they consolidate themselves at the north end of the terminal and push AA down to the mid section. Although I'd like to see a Concourse E extension from the south end and add 5 gates, all for NK.


I'm sorry but minor sure I understood. Does this mean there will be open gate after the terminal expansion, or that there are open gates and will be even more after the terminal expansion?


Even more after expansion.
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