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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:56 am

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
klm617 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Do you mean McNamara is constrained by DL?

DL cannot block any airline at the North Terminal.

No but they can make the road difficult. I understand they can't block any additions but they can make their disapprove of direct competition or negative impact on their yields will not be tolerated thus curbing how aggressive the WCAA might be about bringing new entrants into this market. You do remember how ATL ran interference for the when QR brought the A380 into ATL and Delta didn't like the fact that QR was opening up shop in ATL. Delta is a very powerful airline.

Buddy, Delta blocked QR from using the A380 in ATL because the A380 gate belonged to Delta. The airport tried, and failed to make Delta budge, but it could not take the gate away. Since Delta owns gates in every concourse in ATL, it wields tremendous influence there.
By the same token, Delta can keep anyone out of McNamara, but it has no influence on what happens in the North Terminal. Best it can do to kick an airline out is to compete its yields to the ground (using connections to make up revenue).


All gates at the international terminal at ATL are common use gates. Delta doesn't own them. Why would Delta own an A380 gate at ATL anyway when they don't fly the plane or ever intend to.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:53 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
To put this thread back onto a positive note, I think the with G4 expanding to SRQ, there could a future with G4 at DTW.

Internal sources have told me DL’s DTW-SRQ Route was one of DTW’s most profitable DL routes and it’s being cut because of DL’s drawback of intra-Florida service to better fuel ATL’s Florida flights..

I'm calling the B.S. flag on this one. If it were the most profitable it would likely be flown more that Saturday-only seasonal. I think you've been fed some info from people that don't have access to the data.

The approach that many are taking here and may of these "XYZ air service discussion" threads on a.net take a very myopic approach. The reality is that airlines make route planning decisions starting at a network perspective on where they want to invest their resources that are (in theory) have the highest return on investment or fund strategic growth. They don't necessarily look at each individual market and say, "boy we have to grow DTW by going to ABC, XYZ". Route planning looks at options across the board. No airline has targeted DTW as a strategic growth market where they are willing to make long term investments to gain a place in the market, like what DL has done over the past decade in NYC or SEA.

So like the discussion about TK, sure we can go back and forth about the merits of TK but you can't look at DTW in isolation. You have to consider the other markets that are being looked at where TK would want to invest resources to grow the business and are markets like SEA, DEN, etc. etc more likely to get service before they consider investing resources and starting service in DTW.


Yes but EI has stated publicly that Detroit is on their short list so with the right kind of marketing DTW-DUB should be a slam dunk for 2019 on EI if the airport truly is interested in bring new international service to Detroit. Domestic arrival no customs needed plenty of gate space at the North Terminal EI adding several cities with the A321 so since we are on the short list there should be enough equipment to go around for the expansion EI wants to do in the USA and include Detroit.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
GSP psgr
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:02 am

I was looking for some tickets for family and noticed that it looks like at least one of the GSP-DTW frequencies is going mainline in April. First time the route has seen a 717/DC-9 outside holiday periods since the NW days.
 
2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:44 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
I was looking for some tickets for family and noticed that it looks like at least one of the GSP-DTW frequencies is going mainline in April. First time the route has seen a 717/DC-9 outside holiday periods since the NW days.

That's in line with the general trend of Delta upgrading things, which has been on since 2017. Nice for both airports!
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:14 pm

So what's going to happen now? IND, PIT and CVG all have year round flights to SRQ and DL flies it once a week for 2 months and twice a week for a month. DL won't budge because these adds have nothing to do with DTW's service, it makes me wonder if someone else will jump on SRQ. Also VPS.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:14 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
I was looking for some tickets for family and noticed that it looks like at least one of the GSP-DTW frequencies is going mainline in April. First time the route has seen a 717/DC-9 outside holiday periods since the NW days.
Actually begins in March, I assume CHS or BHM will be next to see a mainline upgrade.
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:31 am

I think it’s pretty incredible that DL’s planning eight daily flights to LAX this summer — the most EVER offered from DTW, especially as DL scales back capacity from LAX to elsewhere in the system.

Will be interesting to see if SNA sticks around — been on several of the flights and loads have been mixed (50% on a few, nearly full on others). The route’s definitely an elite favorite — a recent flight had ~60 passengers but 40 (!) people on the FC upgrade list...
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GSP psgr
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:37 am

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
I was looking for some tickets for family and noticed that it looks like at least one of the GSP-DTW frequencies is going mainline in April. First time the route has seen a 717/DC-9 outside holiday periods since the NW days.

That's in line with the general trend of Delta upgrading things, which has been on since 2017. Nice for both airports!


It will be interesting to see if Delta is going to start doing some limited overflying of ATL into some Southeastern markets. IIRC, post merger a tranche of stations lost DTW service: ELP, LIT, TRI, PNS, CAE, ROA, CHO, and CRW; ILM was also tried seasonally in there somewhere. It'd ease the crush through Atlanta and beef up Detroit vis a vis UA/AA at O'Hare.

Another thought: SkyWest has been trying to pick up as much EAS CR2 flying as they can like Lewisburg and Salina. It's all been done under the UA banner so far, even though DTW is closer than ORD in some cases. This may be because they can do the bracketing of hubs between ORD/DEN and ORD/IAD. But I wonder if we may see DTW pick up a few more EAS markets from what they have now: Ironwood, Mason City, Fort Dodge, and Burlington are all markets where the MSP/DTW combo plays well and there's no branded service. Less likely, I think would be the Southern Airways Express markets in Pennsylvania and West Virginia and the far Upstate NY markets like Massena and Ogdensburg. Just a thought....
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:09 pm

A few airports have publicly noted they'd like to start or resume DTW service, since 2015. Among these cities are GEG, SMF, ELP, ABQ, ICT, ROA, DLH, LSE, YHZ, DAB, and to an extent YNG (seems like they would rather go into DET). Lets break it down.

GEG probably won't happen unless DL uses the C-Series out of DTW, I can see GEG down the road but there are plenty of other chickens to hatch.
SMF is likely in the next few years, simply because the market is growing and the regions are becoming more connected, similar to SJC which should come first.
ELP will probably, unfortunately, never happen because DL can easily charge a good premium to connect these passengers through ATL, plus there's a very weak VFR base, majority of ELP travel is auto.
ABQ is around the same lines as GEG, they're about the same traffic wise, and the only carrier that would do it is probably DL on the C-Series, something thin.
ICT is very believable not because there's a huge market but there is a good option for adding additional flow from ICT to connecting desinations, easily can be twice daily on a CRJ-700.
ROA probably won't happen again no matter how much money local Roanoke business throw at DL like they say they want to.
DLH is a complete failure from DTW now with lower fuel prices, I'd say the same about LSE.
DAB could happen but it'd be similar to what SRQ is, weekend 717 service for 3 months.
YHZ is weird, DTW had it but than it went to NYC, but yet there's a good enough market in terms of local travel to fly at least a daily CRJ-900 year round, maybe this could be something WS looks into when the new JV initiates and get Encore service into DTW.

Realistically, you'll probably see only SJC from DL in the next 3 years, I don't see DL adding any international for at least 5 years, and even then it'll probably be to DUB or BCN because someone else started it. Watch out for KEF though, if the market doubles this year like forecasted I'd keep an eye out for a 2020 start.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:40 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
I was looking for some tickets for family and noticed that it looks like at least one of the GSP-DTW frequencies is going mainline in April. First time the route has seen a 717/DC-9 outside holiday periods since the NW days.


That would be great if they weren't reducing frequency. It's pretty much 6 of one and a half dozen of the other.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:55 pm

I know its bothersome to not have the growth of SEA or the scale of ATL, but DTW seems to come out pretty well from consolidation.
It wasn't cut like CVG, CLE, PIT, MEM, or STL were.
It has the 4x day Amsterdam shuttle in summer
Increase to 2x day CDG by DL in 2018
Domestic increases by DL in 2018
DL flows a passenger over the hub with the lowest cost. If, for example ATL costs $10 less per passenger than DTW, DL can save $100,000,000 by flowing 10,000,000 people who could through either ATL or DTW through ATL. There's a limit on this, but DTW is lower cost than JFK or LGA, so DL would probably prefer to flow connections through DTW over New York. There are also benefits to ATL in scale, as larger aircraft, like those mainline types which feed ATL have lower CASM than regional aircraft.
As ATL reaches its limits, growth will shift to DTW, and as some of noted on this thread, these are starting to show for DTW. Growth will decrease CPE (more passengers over which to divide fixed costs) and CASM (larger aircraft), and the advantage that ATL holds will start to balance.
Don't worry.
I doubt DTW will ever be at a 1000 flights a day, it doesn't have the geographical advantage for Florida traffic that CLT and ATL have, but it will grow consistently, barring another industry crisis.
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kcrwflyer
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:15 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
It will be interesting to see if Delta is going to start doing some limited overflying of ATL into some Southeastern markets. IIRC, post merger a tranche of stations lost DTW service: ELP, LIT, TRI, PNS, CAE, ROA, CHO, and CRW; ILM was also tried seasonally in there somewhere. It'd ease the crush through Atlanta and beef up Detroit vis a vis UA/AA at O'Hare.


I'm not sure DL would consider the volume of flow through ATL a problem. What percentage of traffic from places like CRW, ROA, TRI is more efficiently served via DTW than ATL? I think the level of service those places have to ATL and to DTW right now solve that riddle. I remember the best fares to Florida from CRW were always DTW connections. I'm sure that sucked, financially, for Delta.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:45 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
I know its bothersome to not have the growth of SEA or the scale of ATL, but DTW seems to come out pretty well from consolidation.
It wasn't cut like CVG, CLE, PIT, MEM, or STL were.
It has the 4x day Amsterdam shuttle in summer
Increase to 2x day CDG by DL in 2018
Domestic increases by DL in 2018
DL flows a passenger over the hub with the lowest cost. If, for example ATL costs $10 less per passenger than DTW, DL can save $100,000,000 by flowing 10,000,000 people who could through either ATL or DTW through ATL. There's a limit on this, but DTW is lower cost than JFK or LGA, so DL would probably prefer to flow connections through DTW over New York. There are also benefits to ATL in scale, as larger aircraft, like those mainline types which feed ATL have lower CASM than regional aircraft.
As ATL reaches its limits, growth will shift to DTW, and as some of noted on this thread, these are starting to show for DTW. Growth will decrease CPE (more passengers over which to divide fixed costs) and CASM (larger aircraft), and the advantage that ATL holds will start to balance.
Don't worry.
I doubt DTW will ever be at a 1000 flights a day, it doesn't have the geographical advantage for Florida traffic that CLT and ATL have, but it will grow consistently, barring another industry crisis.


Nor should it ever be at 1000 flights a day and that's understandable. But the airport is not growing at the rate other airports are and that is a concern being it's a major hub for Delta. Delta has allowed Detroit to fall back to third place even after DTW was Northwest largest hub. We are losing ground every month in the airport rankings in the USA. Soon we won't even be in the top 20 and that's pretty bad for an airport that is a major hub foe one of the US3 with 2 hub airlines. So no Detroit is not pretty well off all those cities that lost hubs have metro areas far smaller than Detroit and every airport that has the same metro size to draw O/D from is beating Detroit by leaps and bounds. MSP also now has 4 flights to AMS including one by KLM something Detroit does not have that is long overdue. Every major Delta hub has a KLM flight except Detroit now. While DTW might not be situated well for moving people to and from Florida, Latin America, south America and Mexico it is better situated than ATL for connecting to Europe from most of the United States and for connections to Asia from every city East of the Mississippi not to mention all east west traffic from the northeast. Which for the most part is flowing over ATL.
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GSP psgr
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:57 pm

flymco753 wrote:
A few airports have publicly noted they'd like to start or resume DTW service, since 2015. Among these cities are GEG, SMF, ELP, ABQ, ICT, ROA, DLH, LSE, YHZ, DAB, and to an extent YNG (seems like they would rather go into DET). Lets break it down.


SMF is likely in the next few years, simply because the market is growing and the regions are becoming more connected, similar to SJC which should come first.
ELP will probably, unfortunately, never happen because DL can easily charge a good premium to connect these passengers through ATL, plus there's a very weak VFR base, majority of ELP travel is auto.
ICT is very believable not because there's a huge market but there is a good option for adding additional flow from ICT to connecting desinations, easily can be twice daily on a CRJ-700.


Realistically, you'll probably see only SJC from DL in the next 3 years, I don't see DL adding any international for at least 5 years, and even then it'll probably be to DUB or BCN because someone else started it. Watch out for KEF though, if the market doubles this year like forecasted I'd keep an eye out for a 2020 start.


The other thing about ICT and ELP to consider vs somewhere like DAB or FSD is that they're not particularly efficient connections through either ATL or MSP, where as ATL is right on the way to Florida. I think ICT is more likely; shorter stage length helps there. While the traffic is there for ELP, DL might be inclined to push a SLC connection first. On the whole, I think Delta's next 5 destinations are SJC, ICT, ELP, and then some new EAS markets.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:31 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
A few airports have publicly noted they'd like to start or resume DTW service, since 2015. Among these cities are GEG, SMF, ELP, ABQ, ICT, ROA, DLH, LSE, YHZ, DAB, and to an extent YNG (seems like they would rather go into DET). Lets break it down.


SMF is likely in the next few years, simply because the market is growing and the regions are becoming more connected, similar to SJC which should come first.
ELP will probably, unfortunately, never happen because DL can easily charge a good premium to connect these passengers through ATL, plus there's a very weak VFR base, majority of ELP travel is auto.
ICT is very believable not because there's a huge market but there is a good option for adding additional flow from ICT to connecting desinations, easily can be twice daily on a CRJ-700.


Realistically, you'll probably see only SJC from DL in the next 3 years, I don't see DL adding any international for at least 5 years, and even then it'll probably be to DUB or BCN because someone else started it. Watch out for KEF though, if the market doubles this year like forecasted I'd keep an eye out for a 2020 start.


The other thing about ICT and ELP to consider vs somewhere like DAB or FSD is that they're not particularly efficient connections through either ATL or MSP, where as ATL is right on the way to Florida. I think ICT is more likely; shorter stage length helps there. While the traffic is there for ELP, DL might be inclined to push a SLC connection first. On the whole, I think Delta's next 5 destinations are SJC, ICT, ELP, and then some new EAS markets.


What I see as the only viable adds domestically are SJC and ANC. Otherwise I think pretty much everything else is off the table. International wise I see nothing from Delta with the only other 2 real possibilities being EK to DXB and EI to DUB. I really believe too that NK is also maxed out as far as additional new flights.
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SumChristianus
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:54 am

DTW-ANC is 64.2 PDEW at an average one-way fare of $371 in Q3 2017. Add in demand form the rest of the Midwest, and it should easily be sustainable in the summer for DL, especially as they've downgraded ATL-ANC from a B767-300 to a B757-200 for summer 2018.They could start out with a weekend-only B757, but with the DTW hub and their midwest growth planned for the year, it could be daily for the summer.
Total domestic O/D traffic is 23,445 PDEW in Q3. Its interesting to note that DL controls only 52.7% of it, 12,362 PDEW
NK controls 3,626 PDEW for a 15.5% local marketshare.

Hawaii is 120.2 PDEW and Honolulu is 58.2 PDEW with an average one-way fare of $533
Geographically, though, I see MSP, SLC, and SEA as most likely to gain new DL service, if any. A lot of new capacity, UA, HA, WN, is entering, or about to enter the market, and DL would probably be hesitant to add more capacity. They downgauged ATL-HNL from a B747-400 to A330-300, for example, although they did SEA-LIH and SLC-OGG.
Bangor resmumption, should be a major target of DTW, looking at DL's route map; as routes to the Northeast and Midwest seem to be DTW's geographic strength.
I'd also suggest/expect more mainline to upstate New York. I don't like DL's cutbacks on Saturday's though, particualarly from DTW, looking at their timetable, some routes are served with unbelievably low frequency compared to other days or at weird times. DTW-FWA sees 4x daily some weekdays, but only 1x on Saturdays.
Bangor and Anchorage, overall, are my main expectations for DTW on DL, and I expect to see slow growth overall for the airport, but a major reduction in CRJ200 flying and the airport eventually settling down around 400 daily flights. Its smaller than UA at ORD or DL at ATL, yes, but for the area and with the amount of expansion that has occured in nonstops from the Northeast to the Midwest (a lot of them on DL), its still a major presence.
I'd like to see higher frequency on UA DTW-DEN, also, only 1x daily in January is uncompetitive against DL's still small 3x.
I don't think DL will ever move a whole bunch of capacity from ATL to its other hubs, they like the huge economy of scale it provides. It is probably close to reaching a maximum though, IND-ATL at 10x daily all mainline in summer, for example, and growth will shift to other hubs. Once DL maxes out on gates in BOS and slots? in New York, DTW will be its place to grow.
I'm from the MIdwest, and expect the overall region to grow and do well for the future. I'd suggest that you look a little on the positve side.
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william
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:04 am

klm617 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
I know its bothersome to not have the growth of SEA or the scale of ATL, but DTW seems to come out pretty well from consolidation.
It wasn't cut like CVG, CLE, PIT, MEM, or STL were.
It has the 4x day Amsterdam shuttle in summer
Increase to 2x day CDG by DL in 2018
Domestic increases by DL in 2018
DL flows a passenger over the hub with the lowest cost. If, for example ATL costs $10 less per passenger than DTW, DL can save $100,000,000 by flowing 10,000,000 people who could through either ATL or DTW through ATL. There's a limit on this, but DTW is lower cost than JFK or LGA, so DL would probably prefer to flow connections through DTW over New York. There are also benefits to ATL in scale, as larger aircraft, like those mainline types which feed ATL have lower CASM than regional aircraft.
As ATL reaches its limits, growth will shift to DTW, and as some of noted on this thread, these are starting to show for DTW. Growth will decrease CPE (more passengers over which to divide fixed costs) and CASM (larger aircraft), and the advantage that ATL holds will start to balance.
Don't worry.
I doubt DTW will ever be at a 1000 flights a day, it doesn't have the geographical advantage for Florida traffic that CLT and ATL have, but it will grow consistently, barring another industry crisis.


Nor should it ever be at 1000 flights a day and that's understandable. But the airport is not growing at the rate other airports are and that is a concern being it's a major hub for Delta. Delta has allowed Detroit to fall back to third place even after DTW was Northwest largest hub. We are losing ground every month in the airport rankings in the USA. Soon we won't even be in the top 20 and that's pretty bad for an airport that is a major hub foe one of the US3 with 2 hub airlines. So no Detroit is not pretty well off all those cities that lost hubs have metro areas far smaller than Detroit and every airport that has the same metro size to draw O/D from is beating Detroit by leaps and bounds. MSP also now has 4 flights to AMS including one by KLM something Detroit does not have that is long overdue. Every major Delta hub has a KLM flight except Detroit now. While DTW might not be situated well for moving people to and from Florida, Latin America, south America and Mexico it is better situated than ATL for connecting to Europe from most of the United States and for connections to Asia from every city East of the Mississippi not to mention all east west traffic from the northeast. Which for the most part is flowing over ATL.


What 2nd airline is hubbing at DTW?
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:43 am

william wrote:
klm617 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
I know its bothersome to not have the growth of SEA or the scale of ATL, but DTW seems to come out pretty well from consolidation.
It wasn't cut like CVG, CLE, PIT, MEM, or STL were.
It has the 4x day Amsterdam shuttle in summer
Increase to 2x day CDG by DL in 2018
Domestic increases by DL in 2018
DL flows a passenger over the hub with the lowest cost. If, for example ATL costs $10 less per passenger than DTW, DL can save $100,000,000 by flowing 10,000,000 people who could through either ATL or DTW through ATL. There's a limit on this, but DTW is lower cost than JFK or LGA, so DL would probably prefer to flow connections through DTW over New York. There are also benefits to ATL in scale, as larger aircraft, like those mainline types which feed ATL have lower CASM than regional aircraft.
As ATL reaches its limits, growth will shift to DTW, and as some of noted on this thread, these are starting to show for DTW. Growth will decrease CPE (more passengers over which to divide fixed costs) and CASM (larger aircraft), and the advantage that ATL holds will start to balance.
Don't worry.
I doubt DTW will ever be at a 1000 flights a day, it doesn't have the geographical advantage for Florida traffic that CLT and ATL have, but it will grow consistently, barring another industry crisis.


Nor should it ever be at 1000 flights a day and that's understandable. But the airport is not growing at the rate other airports are and that is a concern being it's a major hub for Delta. Delta has allowed Detroit to fall back to third place even after DTW was Northwest largest hub. We are losing ground every month in the airport rankings in the USA. Soon we won't even be in the top 20 and that's pretty bad for an airport that is a major hub foe one of the US3 with 2 hub airlines. So no Detroit is not pretty well off all those cities that lost hubs have metro areas far smaller than Detroit and every airport that has the same metro size to draw O/D from is beating Detroit by leaps and bounds. MSP also now has 4 flights to AMS including one by KLM something Detroit does not have that is long overdue. Every major Delta hub has a KLM flight except Detroit now. While DTW might not be situated well for moving people to and from Florida, Latin America, south America and Mexico it is better situated than ATL for connecting to Europe from most of the United States and for connections to Asia from every city East of the Mississippi not to mention all east west traffic from the northeast. Which for the most part is flowing over ATL.


What 2nd airline is hubbing at DTW?
DL runs full scale hub operations and NK runs hub like operations, I expect DTW to become a full NK hub as the years come and as NK continues to expand at DTW.
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SumChristianus
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:35 pm

XNA-DTW would be a better connector to the Northeast than XNA-CVG, which struggles on load factor, but does have a P&G contract.
NK has around 30% of the number of DL's local passengers (NK 15% DL 52%)
NK at DTW is probably like a WN focus city in terms of connections , though, less than 20%
FAR could see a daily CR7, but directly overflying MSP, there would have to be local support on both sides to make it work.
EK will be a little while if they come, IMO, they're cutting New York to two nonstop a day, and DTW would be better served by a Turkish Airlines 4x week A330-200 to Istanbul, which would still have to wait for a return to political stability in Turkey. The large communities of Arab descent, from what I've read, are closer to Istanbul, and Dubai, farther out of the way and with a larger plan (77L at least if EK served it) would be riskier proposition.
The KE/DL joint venture will probably see Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, Boston, and Portland added first before KE comes to DTW, but an option could be KE replacing the Delta flight with a daily A380. Are there capable gates? DTW-Hong Kong, assuming DL improves on SEA-HKG, will probably have to wait until around 2025, and would probably served on A359.

Dublin on DL could be a summer seasonal B757-200, but Norwegian and WOW Air probably hurt its chances. London will probably be upgraded to A330-200s eventually to provide a consistent product on LHR flights, but I think DTW's future growth is domestic in the Northeast and Midwest.
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BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:11 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
XNA-DTW would be a better connector to the Northeast than XNA-CVG, which struggles on load factor, but does have a P&G contract.
NK has around 30% of the number of DL's local passengers (NK 15% DL 52%)
NK at DTW is probably like a WN focus city in terms of connections , though, less than 20%
FAR could see a daily CR7, but directly overflying MSP, there would have to be local support on both sides to make it work.
EK will be a little while if they come, IMO, they're cutting New York to two nonstop a day, and DTW would be better served by a Turkish Airlines 4x week A330-200 to Istanbul, which would still have to wait for a return to political stability in Turkey. The large communities of Arab descent, from what I've read, are closer to Istanbul, and Dubai, farther out of the way and with a larger plan (77L at least if EK served it) would be riskier proposition.
The KE/DL joint venture will probably see Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, Boston, and Portland added first before KE comes to DTW, but an option could be KE replacing the Delta flight with a daily A380. Are there capable gates? DTW-Hong Kong, assuming DL improves on SEA-HKG, will probably have to wait until around 2025, and would probably served on A359.

Dublin on DL could be a summer seasonal B757-200, but Norwegian and WOW Air probably hurt its chances. London will probably be upgraded to A330-200s eventually to provide a consistent product on LHR flights, but I think DTW's future growth is domestic in the Northeast and Midwest.


Thank for this. I agree with everything, absolutely everything. I think that LHR is going to be served daily by the A332 however. An additional x3 weekly 763ER will also be seen on the route. LHR is very weak and we need another carrier on the route as I don't trust DL, and completion will drive more people to fly on the route.
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:15 pm

One thing I noticed on Delta's website now is that when I pull up the main page the originating airport defaults to PTK (Oakland County International Airport) whereas it never did this in the past. I speculate it is because of all of the Delta VIP movements into and out of the airport but nonetheless find it interesting to consider DL service out of PTK. I know there would be strong local opposition to it but unlike DET, the airport is not constrained by runway dimensions i.e. Boeing 757-200s fly out of there as well as IFL cargo Boeing 727-200s. From the Northern suburbs e.g. Clarkston, Rochester Hills, Oxford, Lake Orion, Waterford Twp, and White Lake Twp PTK would be a nice alternative to fly out of. FNT used to have connecting service through DTW which was nice but now that has been gone for years which is stupid. Commuting to DTW from the northern burbs is a pain so it would be nice to see some commercial service out of PTK. Also, on a side note, did anybody see how NK is now starting nonstop service DTW-SAN? Pretty cool if you ask me. I'd like to see NK expand non-stops from DTW and also see DL bring back DTW-HKG (that was a convenient route to fly).
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:24 pm

I live in Livingston county and I see PTK as well.
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:15 pm

klm617 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
klm617 wrote:
No but they can make the road difficult. I understand they can't block any additions but they can make their disapprove of direct competition or negative impact on their yields will not be tolerated thus curbing how aggressive the WCAA might be about bringing new entrants into this market. You do remember how ATL ran interference for the when QR brought the A380 into ATL and Delta didn't like the fact that QR was opening up shop in ATL. Delta is a very powerful airline.

Buddy, Delta blocked QR from using the A380 in ATL because the A380 gate belonged to Delta. The airport tried, and failed to make Delta budge, but it could not take the gate away. Since Delta owns gates in every concourse in ATL, it wields tremendous influence there.
By the same token, Delta can keep anyone out of McNamara, but it has no influence on what happens in the North Terminal. Best it can do to kick an airline out is to compete its yields to the ground (using connections to make up revenue).


All gates at the international terminal at ATL are common use gates. Delta doesn't own them. Why would Delta own an A380 gate at ATL anyway when they don't fly the plane or ever intend to.


At ATL the international gates are scheduled in advance based on equipment and timing. The problem was that QR upgraded their flight A380 on short notice and their gate was not one that could accommodate the A380. I believe, but could be wrong, that using one of the A380 gates in ATL blocks an adjacent gate. The gate may have been open, but would have displaced a DL flight at an adjacent gate. DL had no obligation to help out a competitor and change their gate use when they followed the appropriate protocol and QR did not.
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:55 pm

In regards to G4 and SRQ are you all referring to Punta Gorda (PGD)? Because G4 isn't serving SRQ as far as I know and I live here. They are however close to 40+ daily flights some days in summer at PGD.
SRQ for DL is mind-boggling, and I actually do think someone has decided to just force people over ATL on that route and take a premium on top of doing it as well. It was always full 2 daily year round at NW.
PDK, im presuming the Nimbys in the lakes communities would try hard to nix that but your right, why was FNT 6 daily props dropped, I worked Mesaba back in the day, they were overbooked, same with LAN/AZO/MBS. People on this forum are so quick to say people will drive, like the comment about LSE/DLH being drivable ha, that's a laugh
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:59 pm

NWADTWE16 wrote:
In regards to G4 and SRQ are you all referring to Punta Gorda (PGD)? Because G4 isn't serving SRQ as far as I know and I live here. They are however close to 40+ daily flights some days in summer at PGD.
SRQ for DL is mind-boggling, and I actually do think someone has decided to just force people over ATL on that route and take a premium on top of doing it as well. It was always full 2 daily year round at NW.
PDK, im presuming the Nimbys in the lakes communities would try hard to nix that but your right, why was FNT 6 daily props dropped, I worked Mesaba back in the day, they were overbooked, same with LAN/AZO/MBS. People on this forum are so quick to say people will drive, like the comment about LSE/DLH being drivable ha, that's a laugh


Delta figured that after the last merger and you were down to just three choices they no longer wanted to have the expenses of flying people from FNT-DTW who they knew if they dropped the FNT-DTW flights would drive to Detroit to catch a Delta flight because of the lack of choice. FNT was going really well but Southwest and Delta destroyed that market.
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:02 pm

axiom wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
In regards to G4 and SRQ are you all referring to Punta Gorda (PGD)? Because G4 isn't serving SRQ as far as I know and I live here. They are however close to 40+ daily flights some days in summer at PGD.
SRQ for DL is mind-boggling, and I actually do think someone has decided to just force people over ATL on that route and take a premium on top of doing it as well. It was always full 2 daily year round at NW.
PDK, im presuming the Nimbys in the lakes communities would try hard to nix that but your right, why was FNT 6 daily props dropped, I worked Mesaba back in the day, they were overbooked, same with LAN/AZO/MBS. People on this forum are so quick to say people will drive, like the comment about LSE/DLH being drivable ha, that's a laugh


G4 just announced SRQ. Can't believe it myself :)

And of course DL tries to force people through ATL and make a premium in he process - that's the entire point of their business ;-)


No they are a customer orientated business therefore their decisions should be based on customer convenience but with little choice in the market customer service is now almost nonexistent. Just try re-booking a canceled flight and you'll see my point. So we can say O/D numbers warrant a DTW-SRQ slight but Delta refuses to operate it.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:04 pm

NWADTWE16 wrote:
In regards to G4 and SRQ are you all referring to Punta Gorda (PGD)? Because G4 isn't serving SRQ as far as I know and I live here. They are however close to 40+ daily flights some days in summer at PGD.
SRQ for DL is mind-boggling, and I actually do think someone has decided to just force people over ATL on that route and take a premium on top of doing it as well. It was always full 2 daily year round at NW.
PDK, im presuming the Nimbys in the lakes communities would try hard to nix that but your right, why was FNT 6 daily props dropped, I worked Mesaba back in the day, they were overbooked, same with LAN/AZO/MBS. People on this forum are so quick to say people will drive, like the comment about LSE/DLH being drivable ha, that's a laugh


G4 just announced SRQ. Can't believe it myself :)

And of course DL tries to force people through ATL and make a premium in he process - that's the entire point of their business ;-)
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:43 pm

They didn’t announce it! I looked at the page, I found it. Please put a source up next time. Anyways, they meant that Delta Already had seasonal service, scroll through the rest of the page, it gives off the names of the airlines. Oh boy I was excited for 2 minutes.
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:58 pm

from their site, wow, what?

from: Sarasota / Bradenton, FL show details

to:Cincinnati, OH
Indianapolis, IN
Pittsburgh, PA

https://www.allegiantair.com/route-map
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Midwestindy
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:23 am

BenflysDTW wrote:
They didn’t announce it! I looked at the page, I found it. Please put a source up next time. Anyways, they meant that Delta Already had seasonal service, scroll through the rest of the page, it gives off the names of the airlines. Oh boy I was excited for 2 minutes.


NWADTWE16 wrote:
from their site, wow, what?

from: Sarasota / Bradenton, FL show details

to:Cincinnati, OH
Indianapolis, IN
Pittsburgh, PA

https://www.allegiantair.com/route-map


Seems like you guys missed it, it was referenced here:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382595&p=20088125&hilit=allegiant#p20088125
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382403&hilit=indianapolis&start=50
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382445&p=20086131&hilit=pittsburgh#p20086131
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382407&hilit=rest+of+ohio&start=50

Plus dozens of websites and media outlets ran stories about it including USA today: https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 015220001/
DL DM, AA Gold 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, DXB, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:54 am

They must see it as just a way to drive more traffic to their new resort/time share property? I don't know, but either way, SRQ has been seriously devoid of action for a long time. I hope this brings more action. Their going to need to widen the River Road from 776 to 75 route for sure now, us locals need an outlet, and that's the only one and it's crammed 24/7
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:56 am

flymco753 wrote:
ICT is very believable not because there's a huge market but there is a good option for adding additional flow from ICT to connecting desinations, easily can be twice daily on a CRJ-700.

I don't see it happening anytime soon. Back in 2010 Delta instituted a new policy that routes over certain distances needed certain sized planes. At that point they up gauged DTW-ICT to the CR9. I do not remember what they were using on the route prior, but the discussion at the time was that it did okay on the smaller plane. The CR9 however proved to be too many seats. The route was cut fairly soon after the up gauge. I would like to see them give it another try, but I am not holding my breath.
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:17 am

Please keep the thread on topic, keep the personal comments to one another out of the discussion
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drdisque
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:55 am

FOD, MCW, and IMT are all former NW markets. They were terrible and that's why DL threw them back into the EAS program and didn't even bother to bid on them and neither did OO. FOD and MCW are close to getting kicked out of the program despite high quality 9-seater service. I don't see OO bidding on them.

FNT-DTW was canned because it was literally all reverse leakage. Passengers were paying less to fly FNT-DTW-XXX than DTW-XXX. At the time the only real competitor in FNT was FL. AA had just entered the market to ORD (and briefly tried 1x DFW) and CO was flying 30 seat props to CLE (recently upgraded from 19 seaters). LAN, MBS, AZO all generally have higher fares than DTW and thus support DTW service. FNT had lower fares than DTW and thus lost it.

Since WN left, every airline left at SRQ has been premium pricing it. Price ORD-SRQ this spring on UA and compare it to their fares on ORD-TPA and ORD-RSW. I feel even B6 has been able to price it more premium.
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:29 pm

Quick notes. I’m looking around and DL has a lot of good deals in terms of ticket prices going out of DTW to popular international destinations. I priced DTW-PEK through April and am finding ticket prices averaging $800 RT. Some PVG flights are falling below $1K. LHR flights through April around $700 RT.
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:43 pm

klm617 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
klm617 wrote:
No but they can make the road difficult. I understand they can't block any additions but they can make their disapprove of direct competition or negative impact on their yields will not be tolerated thus curbing how aggressive the WCAA might be about bringing new entrants into this market. You do remember how ATL ran interference for the when QR brought the A380 into ATL and Delta didn't like the fact that QR was opening up shop in ATL. Delta is a very powerful airline.

Buddy, Delta blocked QR from using the A380 in ATL because the A380 gate belonged to Delta. The airport tried, and failed to make Delta budge, but it could not take the gate away. Since Delta owns gates in every concourse in ATL, it wields tremendous influence there.
By the same token, Delta can keep anyone out of McNamara, but it has no influence on what happens in the North Terminal. Best it can do to kick an airline out is to compete its yields to the ground (using connections to make up revenue).


All gates at the international terminal at ATL are common use gates. Delta doesn't own them. Why would Delta own an A380 gate at ATL anyway when they don't fly the plane or ever intend to.

As usual you don't know what you are talking about. Its sad. Really it is.
Delta has preferential use of most of the international gates at ATL. The only gates they don't have preferential use of is 6 or 7 on F.
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:27 pm

If DL doesn't add SJC by the first week of February I think we can scratch any major domestic adds by the summer and prepare for 2019.

I saw a comment regarding NK, no they're not done expanding at DTW. PBI, PHX, MBJ, PUJ, BDL, and EWR could jump on board, particularly PBI for this coming winter and use that A319 on BDL next summer. I also think MBJ and PUJ would happen, not just one or the other. Until gate space isn't an issue at EWR it would have no problem co-existing with LGA. I don't know the PHX situation, I'll look more into it.
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:03 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
DL flows a passenger over the hub with the lowest cost. If, for example ATL costs $10 less per passenger than DTW, DL can save $100,000,000 by flowing 10,000,000 people who could through either TL or DTW through ATL. There's a limit on this, but DTW is lower cost than JFK or LGA, so DL would probably prefer to flow connections through DTW over New York. There are also benefits to ATL in scale, as larger aircraft, like those mainline types which feed ATL have lower CASM than regional aircraft.


<sigh> This is a.net's biggest myth. CPE is NOT a check airlines cut per passenger, but rather a simple average of the costs they've paid divided by enplanements. Here's a very simple illustration:

Fake Airport charges each of its airlines $3,000 in monthly rent, and $300 (regional jet) or $500 (mainline) per flight. The airport's only service is Regional Air, which operates two daily CRJ averaging 40 passengers per flight. At month's end, it's incurred $21,000 in fees and enplaned 2,400 passengers, yielding a CPE of $8.75. The following month, ULCC Air began service, operating a total of 30 flights averaging 200 passengers each for the month, thus incurring $18,000 in fees across 6,000 passengers ($3 CPE). The airport reports a CPE of $4.64 (a total of $39K in fees collected spread across 8,400 enplanements).

Do you see why CPE is deceptive? Reality is, DL's CPE is low at ATL primarily because of the volume it flows through the hub -- in reality, the lion's share of its costs are fixed at DTW & ATL, whereas variable costs are very comparable. If ATL chooses to spend $10B expanding, DL -- as its primary tenant -- is going to foot most of the bill. Meanwhile, it's stuck paying most of its cost at DTW for the next 20+ years, whether it uses the facilities or not.

This concept seems to escape the majority of the a.net community...

I know its bothersome to not have the growth of SEA or the scale of ATL, but DTW seems to come out pretty well from consolidation.
It wasn't cut like CVG, CLE, PIT, MEM, or STL were.


You do realize that DTW has between 2x-5x the local traffic of the airports you listed?

Only on a.net can the DTW community get critizied for suggesting another legacy inaugurate DTW-LAX while there's multiple active threads zealously hypothesizing CLT expansion. CLT is a market the generates roughly HALF the local traffic of DTW. But facts... those don't mean much here. All that matters is CLT=Good, DTW=Bad!!!
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:07 pm

DL's recent schedule change downgauged two of the three FNT-ATL flights from the MD-88 to CR9 (during late winter/spring). I projected this last year, when WN announced termination of its FNT services. The lion's share of FNT's catchment is coming throughout Michigan in search of lower fares -- just doesn't make much sense to serve them any long. It was fun while it lasted.
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SumChristianus
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:46 pm

compensateme wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
DL flows a passenger over the hub with the lowest cost. If, for example ATL costs $10 less per passenger than DTW, DL can save $100,000,000 by flowing 10,000,000 people who could through either TL or DTW through ATL. There's a limit on this, but DTW is lower cost than JFK or LGA, so DL would probably prefer to flow connections through DTW over New York. There are also benefits to ATL in scale, as larger aircraft, like those mainline types which feed ATL have lower CASM than regional aircraft.


<sigh> This is a.net's biggest myth. CPE is NOT a check airlines cut per passenger, but rather a simple average of the costs they've paid divided by enplanements. Here's a very simple illustration:

Fake Airport charges each of its airlines $3,000 in monthly rent, and $300 (regional jet) or $500 (mainline) per flight. The airport's only service is Regional Air, which operates two daily CRJ averaging 40 passengers per flight. At month's end, it's incurred $21,000 in fees and enplaned 2,400 passengers, yielding a CPE of $8.75. The following month, ULCC Air began service, operating a total of 30 flights averaging 200 passengers each for the month, thus incurring $18,000 in fees across 6,000 passengers ($3 CPE). The airport reports a CPE of $4.64 (a total of $39K in fees collected spread across 8,400 enplanements).

Do you see why CPE is deceptive? Reality is, DL's CPE is low at ATL primarily because of the volume it flows through the hub -- in reality, the lion's share of its costs are fixed at DTW & ATL, whereas variable costs are very comparable. If ATL chooses to spend $10B expanding, DL -- as its primary tenant -- is going to foot most of the bill. Meanwhile, it's stuck paying most of its cost at DTW for the next 20+ years, whether it uses the facilities or not.

This concept seems to escape the majority of the a.net community...

I know its bothersome to not have the growth of SEA or the scale of ATL, but DTW seems to come out pretty well from consolidation.
It wasn't cut like CVG, CLE, PIT, MEM, or STL were.


You do realize that DTW has between 2x-5x the local traffic of the airports you listed?

Only on a.net can the DTW community get critizied for suggesting another legacy inaugurate DTW-LAX while there's multiple active threads zealously hypothesizing CLT expansion. CLT is a market the generates roughly HALF the local traffic of DTW. But facts... those don't mean much here. All that matters is CLT=Good, DTW=Bad!!!


Yes, I realize that, sorry. If DL committed growth to its relatively unused (there are lots of openings midday and possibly mid-evening for additional flights to be scheduled) CPE would fall. Their DTW service pattern, like UA with lots of regional jets, and 50 seat CRJ/ERJs specifically, has a way of putting a hub into a downward spiral of higher costs, higher fares, lower passenger volumes, higher costs....ad infinitum.
I think DL's costs would fall dramatically if it reallocated growth to DTW (falling airport fixed costs AND operating costs due to use of larger aircraft). The Midwest isn't gone yet. As soon as DL stops this trend, they can start an upward growth spiral, lowering their costs, making fares more competitive, increasing volumes, upgauging aircraft and strengthening the hub.
DTW-LAX is a good target for AA, probably part of the reason why DL went to 8x daily, but DL would try to push them out.
For carriers other than DL, I think the following are some opportunities:
UA;
DTW-DEN 1x>3x daily
DTW-IAH More mainline
DTW-ORD More mainline
DTW-SFO Upgauge to B73H and add seasonal second dailu flight

AA:
DTW-LAX 1x daily A319
DTW-MIA More mainline

WN:
DTW-MCO Increase to daily

NK:
DTW-MSY
DTW-CHS
DTW-AUS
DTW-PHX

F9:
DTW-PVD

TK:
DTW-IST

KE:
DTW-ICN

I don't hate DTW, I just understand that with the current way DL has set things up, they put themselves at a disadvantage there relative to competitors and themselves in a way.
NK is now 30% DL's size in local O&D passengers in DTW, though. With that yellow and black competitive threat, though, they'll have to shape up or shape out.

I bet they shape out.
It'll be slow growth, not like SEA or LAX for DL, but from the large base of their current size at DTW, DL's hub there will increase, its NOT shrinking, DL will realize they have to work to maintain their standing there, and they will succeed.

They are very good at execution.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:00 pm

Spirit is going to continue growing Detroit while growing other stations as well. I see them flying 40 daily flights by 2022 with adds to PHX, BDL, EWR, PBI domestically and MBJ, PUJ internationally. That alone doesn't include new stations that would most likely get a flight like BNA, AUS/SAT, JAX, RDU, etc. Spirit isn't going anywhere, they're going to keep expanding and rapidly, we're talking probably 3-5 routes a year.

Delta OTOH, like I posted above, will probably only add DTW-SJC by 2020, most growth will probably be done with JV carriers, so DL could end MEX and gi e them both to AM as would MTY while adding BJX or QRO, maybe both. DL will probably ditch YVR and give it to WS, while WS adds YYC and some Encore routes, which would probably take over some DL flying to current Canadian cities. DL could end GRU, in turn Azul could do VCP or LATAM to GRU 2x a week. DL probably won't add a 2nd ICN flight it'd be KE. DL would add HKG and that's it for Asia. DL won't add ANC nor HNL ever. Maybe, maybe they'll do DUB only if WOW is drowning in money or EI does it (which at this point is likely). Give it time, VS will be back but take over DL's LHR flight and make it once daily. I see AF taking over one of the 2 DL CDG flights, so AF would go 2x and DL 1x. If LH adds MUC, DL's MUC will suffer, ends the route. I could also see a lot of CRJ routes leaving; HSV, LIT, TUL, SAV, and other destinations that are only served once daily on CRJ's from DTW. This is my worst case scenario, I'm not saying this is all going to happen, I'm saying this is a scenario that DL could pull if they wanted to scale DTW down.
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msycajun
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:27 pm

SumChristianus wrote:

NK:
DTW-MSY


NK has flown this route for a few years now. Actually it went 2 daily for portion of this month.
 
drdisque
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:13 pm

On a brighter note, UA introduced CRJ-700 service on 2 of the 3 flights to FNT this week although it's gone again from the schedule in April. Still a good sign that they're trying it.
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:36 pm

Since Detroit is now out for HQ2, I hope this makes the people that live in the Greater Detroit Area that it's probably one of the main reasons, if not the main reason as to why Detroit isn't getting HQ2. Detroit needs to be connected to the suburbs and airport using a functional mass transit system, or trains for example. Nobody wants to have to go on business and rent a car to drive in a place they know nothing about, I know how to get around NYC and Atlanta because the train takes me to my stop and I walk less than 15 minutes to where I need to go.

I think if Detroit area people would support mass transit, it would be a key that unlocks regions or companies of the world that have never been reached before. DY obviously prefers either leisure or hip markets, I don't think DY will consider Detroit until a reliable transit system is built. No 24 year old from Denmark is going to come to Detroit and rent a car and drive on American roads to Downtown Detroit.
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:03 pm

The issues in Metro Detroit are far more complex and much deeper than just mass transit.

That said, it sounds good in theory but not just the residential population but the business centers are wildly dispersed around Metro Detroit.
Downtown/Midtown/New Center only compromises about 20% of the region's office space by square footage, with the about 60% in the business centers of Oakland County.
The majority of business travelers going into DTW are not going to downtown Detroit hence the need to rent a car to get between suburban hotels, offices, and restaurants.

Not to mention, the vast majority of Metro Detroit is insular, myopic, and backwards stuck in a different era.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:35 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Since Detroit is now out for HQ2,.


There are five?? Amazon fulfillment centers and IT development location in the Metro Area.

Washington state including HQ1 has 40K jobs, but HQ2 will create 50K jobs???

I would prefer MEDC/Detroit not get into a multi $$Billion incentives bidding war.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:46 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Since Detroit is now out for HQ2,.


There are five?? Amazon fulfillment centers and IT development location in the Metro Area.

Washington state including HQ1 has 40K jobs, but HQ2 will create 50K jobs???

I would prefer MEDC/Detroit not get into a multi $$Billion incentives bidding war.
On a bright note, the region is being connected more each and every day with the Bay Area because of the autonomous vehicles. The flights from SFO have been going in with a ton of freight going to the auto show, and with it came a lot of people. Detroit will be more connected with Silicon Valley than Seattle anyhow. Hence why I really put emphasis on DL doing DTW-SJC, there's no justification as to why it wasn't added this year other than, possibly, aircraft availability, but the market is enough for a daily 73H.
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:50 pm

Nationally, mass transit is in decline; outside of NYC, its primary ridership is those who cannot afford to drive -- whereas those who can afford to drive, well drive. Consider Los Angeles/Orange County, which invested tens of billions (and has committed another 120B+) over the past 20 years has seen decline. And Denver, which invested tens of billions and served as the poster child for the 'Millennials Love Mass Transit' rhetoric. Instead, it's well, well, well behind on its projections and has seen strong decreases in areas where highway access improved (surprise!).
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:56 pm

compensateme wrote:
Instead, it's well, well, well behind on its projections and has seen strong decreases in areas where highway access improved (surprise!).
If highway areas were improved in the region it might make things easier. If Detroit is going to be a world class city, at least put a train from the airport to downtown.
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:06 pm

flymco753 wrote:
If highway areas were improved in the region it might make things easier. If Detroit is going to be a world class city, at least put a train from the airport to downtown.


Metro Detroit has excellent highway access :confused:. A SMART recently launched direct bus service from Downtown Detroit to Metro Airport, for a fare $2; a lightrail system would be cost prohibitive.

Since the advert of the automobile, mass transit has declined to serve primarily those who could not readily afford to drive themselves. In the late 1990s through 2000s, there was a growing narrative that the younger generation was embracing mass transit for a multitude of reasons -- cost, convenience, environmental, etc. -- and communities such as Denver, Seattle, San Francisco, etc. aggressively built out systems to serve them. Turns out, it was a bunch of B.S. and once Millennials could readily afford to drive, they bought the same trucks and SUVs their parents did.
I liked beer. I still like beer.
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