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SQ22
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What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:31 pm

Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=607831
Last edited by SQ22 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: title updated
 
Rafale9312
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Re: What's going on at RDU 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:00 pm

SQ22 wrote:
Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=607831


I really like the idea of having these threads locked to a yearly basis! It gives us an archive to look back on what happened each year going forward.

Hopefully this will be the year someone finally announces RDU-SAN.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:16 pm

So when is DL gonna announce their RDU 2018 routes? From this Triangle Business Journal Sept article, Andy Renner, director of domestic network planning at Delta stated building on the network Delta has in place at RDU has been “a big part of my job over the past year. What you’ll continue to see is us upgrading the customer experience by trying to do more product upgrades. It’s a little premature to talk about 2018,” he says. “We certainly have ideas on new destinations to be serving out of Raleigh-Durham, but it’s a little too early to announce anything. Part of my job is to figure out where people want to live – where people want to fly, and for me to anticipate that.

So, will we see something new and where do people want to fly? I’m thinking ORD has to be a low hanging fruit.. but so is MSY and PDX.. but yet crickets... soooooo.. whatcha think?
Aiming High and going far..
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: What's going on at RDU 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:33 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
So when is DL gonna announce their RDU 2018 routes? From this Triangle Business Journal Sept article, Andy Renner, director of domestic network planning at Delta stated building on the network Delta has in place at RDU has been “a big part of my job over the past year. What you’ll continue to see is us upgrading the customer experience by trying to do more product upgrades. It’s a little premature to talk about 2018,” he says. “We certainly have ideas on new destinations to be serving out of Raleigh-Durham, but it’s a little too early to announce anything. Part of my job is to figure out where people want to live – where people want to fly, and for me to anticipate that.

So, will we see something new and where do people want to fly? I’m thinking ORD has to be a low hanging fruit.. but so is MSY and PDX.. but yet crickets... soooooo.. whatcha think?


http://news.delta.com/sites/default/fil ... 202017.pdf

During the Q3 Earnings Call they said: "if you think about where we sit in Seattle or where we sit in Boston or where we sit in
Raleigh, we think we have a lot more opportunities continuing to, over time, grow those at a modest pace, and
we're very excited about the intentional and deliberate places we fly today."

So more growth is on the way
I could definitely see MCI and MSY, probably ORD as well despite competition from AA and UA. Possibly LAS as well.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
ScrantonUSC
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:01 pm

I think Delta has grown enough at RDU to offer a non-stop to Chicago. There are many business travelers that will pay the extra $ in fares that will undoubtedly have to be made up compared to American's and United's operations at ORD. I think it's the only major business-heavy route for RDU that could make sense at this point in time. San Jose could be another, but it is definitely not feasible for Delta, with United and Virgin flying to SFO.
 
mikejepp
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:06 pm

Any chance of more AA point-to-point flying from RDU?
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:46 pm

Really hoping to see a daily RDU-MSY service on DL in 2018. The G4/WN 3X weekly service is better than nothing, but it'd be great to get a network carrier back in the market offering a daily nonstop.
Spread hope like fire.
 
jplatts
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Re: What's going on at RDU 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:08 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
I could definitely see MCI and MSY, probably ORD as well despite competition from AA and UA. Possibly LAS as well.


Southwest could also add RDU-MCI nonstop service since Southwest has over 50% market share in MCI and since Southwest also still has significant market share at RDU, even with the Delta RDU focus city operation. In addition, Southwest could also add nonstop service from RDU to AUS, OAK, SJC, and SAN since there is demand for flights to RDU from Greater Austin, Silicon Valley, and Greater San Diego with the presence of major hi-tech companies in Greater Austin, the San Francisco Bay Area (including Silicon Valley), Greater San Diego, and the Research Triangle.
 
tphuang
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:23 pm

ScrantonUSC wrote:
I think Delta has grown enough at RDU to offer a non-stop to Chicago. There are many business travelers that will pay the extra $ in fares that will undoubtedly have to be made up compared to American's and United's operations at ORD. I think it's the only major business-heavy route for RDU that could make sense at this point in time. San Jose could be another, but it is definitely not feasible for Delta, with United and Virgin flying to SFO.


Delta does not even fly lax to Chicago. If what you are saying is right, then delta is finished with growth at rdu at least in terms of major new markets.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: What's going on at RDU 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:58 pm

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I could definitely see MCI and MSY, probably ORD as well despite competition from AA and UA. Possibly LAS as well.


Southwest could also add RDU-MCI nonstop service since Southwest has over 50% market share in MCI and since Southwest also still has significant market share at RDU, even with the Delta RDU focus city operation. In addition, Southwest could also add nonstop service from RDU to AUS, OAK, SJC, and SAN since there is demand for flights to RDU from Greater Austin, Silicon Valley, and Greater San Diego with the presence of major hi-tech companies in Greater Austin, the San Francisco Bay Area (including Silicon Valley), Greater San Diego, and the Research Triangle.


Any airline can add service to anywhere.... The last route WN added from MCI was AUS, and that was in March of last year. I'd think DL would add RDU-MCI before WN would...
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:14 pm

mikejepp wrote:
Any chance of more AA point-to-point flying from RDU?


Unfortunately no. AA has given up on RDU. They would rather funnel people through CLT or DFW.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:48 pm

So, as other threads are doing.. what’s your RDU predictions? As for me...

AC -YUL 1x daily CRJ
AA - status quo
AS - SAN 1x daily
B6 - status quo
DL - 3 new destinations (2 domestic, 1 international less than daily)
F9 - 2 new destinations (less than daily)
G4 - 1 new dastination (3 weekly)
WN - status quo
UA - status quo

New entrants (3)
J1 - 2 to 3 destinations
NK - 4-5 destinations
WOW, Condor, or AM (less than daily)

NK to Term 1
F9 switch to Term 1

Delta takes 1 more gate

General Aviation reopens observation deck

RDUAA moves forward with Concourse D gate expansion

Someone starts discussion on a hangar
Aiming High and going far..
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:56 pm

It really is sad to see AA give up on P2P/Focus cities. I guess it could be mostly a fleet issue in that possibly all deliveries are covering aircraft retirements but you'd think there's some opportunity to drive incremental growth outside of the hubs.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:58 pm

AA is a real hub and spoke... like United.. there really isn’t anywhere else to go except PHX and honestly, PHX adds nothing. PIT will probably go away and replaced by DL (if so, may be a way to get the 757W to POT) or WN... there is nothing else for AA to do..
Aiming High and going far..
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:30 pm

TWFlyGuy wrote:
It really is sad to see AA give up on P2P/Focus cities. I guess it could be mostly a fleet issue in that possibly all deliveries are covering aircraft retirements but you'd think there's some opportunity to drive incremental growth outside of the hubs.


It would be nice, but where would they add focus cities, outside of their hubs there aren't many sizable markets where they dominate the market share. STL/BNA have WN, BOS already has B6/DL, RDU has DL, AUS has WN, so most of their large non-hub markets where they already have a large FF base have been taken over by other carriers.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
stl07
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:25 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
TWFlyGuy wrote:
It really is sad to see AA give up on P2P/Focus cities. I guess it could be mostly a fleet issue in that possibly all deliveries are covering aircraft retirements but you'd think there's some opportunity to drive incremental growth outside of the hubs.


It would be nice, but where would they add focus cities, outside of their hubs there aren't many sizable markets where they dominate the market share. STL/BNA have WN, BOS already has B6/DL, RDU has DL, AUS has WN, so most of their large non-hub markets where they already have a large FF base have been taken over by other carriers.

Actually, you would be surprised at how many AA FFs there are in STL. With all the American hubs at relatively high frequencies, the AS hubs plus SAN, and the Cape Air destinations it's almost like an unintentional focus city and many business travelers stay with AA (although this number has been reported to be shrinking) as they dont like southwest. A few days ago I was on a flight from CLT to STL and the passenger next to me was stopping at STL on the way to SAN.
 
stl07
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:26 pm

TWFlyGuy wrote:
It really is sad to see AA give up on P2P/Focus cities. I guess it could be mostly a fleet issue in that possibly all deliveries are covering aircraft retirements but you'd think there's some opportunity to drive incremental growth outside of the hubs.

They did add relatively recently MCI (and a few other cities)-CUN
 
remymartin11
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:51 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
AA is a real hub and spoke... like United.. there really isn’t anywhere else to go except PHX and honestly, PHX adds nothing. PIT will probably go away and replaced by DL (if so, may be a way to get the 757W to POT) or WN... there is nothing else for AA to do..


As AA Concierge Key Member, I fly PHX-RDU at least 2x month. Connecting via DFW and CLT is ridiculous. Always a dozen or so people on both flights. PHX is the only AA "hub" with no nonstop out of RDU. I refuse to fly WN on this route, even though it's non stop...and the schedule is so bizarre, on again off again.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:03 pm

stl07 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
so most of their large non-hub markets where they already have a large FF base have been taken over by other carriers.

Actually, you would be surprised at how many AA FFs there are in STL. With all the American hubs at relatively high frequencies, the AS hubs plus SAN, and the Cape Air destinations it's almost like an unintentional focus city and many business travelers stay with AA (although this number has been reported to be shrinking) as they dont like southwest. A few days ago I was on a flight from CLT to STL and the passenger next to me was stopping at STL on the way to SAN.


Why would I be surprised, as my post above indicates I am aware of the AA FF presence in STL, although I wouldn't call that a focus city by any stretch. RDU/BOS are much more like focus cities for AA.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
stl07
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:42 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
so most of their large non-hub markets where they already have a large FF base have been taken over by other carriers.

Actually, you would be surprised at how many AA FFs there are in STL. With all the American hubs at relatively high frequencies, the AS hubs plus SAN, and the Cape Air destinations it's almost like an unintentional focus city and many business travelers stay with AA (although this number has been reported to be shrinking) as they dont like southwest. A few days ago I was on a flight from CLT to STL and the passenger next to me was stopping at STL on the way to SAN.


Why would I be surprised, as my post above indicates I am aware of the AA FF presence in STL, although I wouldn't call that a focus city by any stretch. RDU/BOS are much more like focus cities for AA.


Oops! Misread your post
 
ADrum23
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:52 am

Midwestindy wrote:
TWFlyGuy wrote:
It really is sad to see AA give up on P2P/Focus cities. I guess it could be mostly a fleet issue in that possibly all deliveries are covering aircraft retirements but you'd think there's some opportunity to drive incremental growth outside of the hubs.


It would be nice, but where would they add focus cities, outside of their hubs there aren't many sizable markets where they dominate the market share. STL/BNA have WN, BOS already has B6/DL, RDU has DL, AUS has WN, so most of their large non-hub markets where they already have a large FF base have been taken over by other carriers.


They could do IND or CMH IMO. No one carrier dominates at either, although DL is increasing at both. But they'd have to move fast before DL gets too big (particularly at IND), so I'd say that ship may have sailed.

If CLT wasn't so close, I'd say BNA would be a good RDU-style focus city/p2p for AA. Although even with CLT six hours to the east, RDU is six hours from ATL and DL doesn't seem to mind having a focus city so close to its flagship hub. Even with WN's large presence at BNA, there is still a decent sized AA FF base and with the right routes, I think AA could win back some business travelers. And with OW partner BA operating the LHR flight, it would allow business travelers more flexibility when traveling overseas. WN is great if you need to travel within the 48 states, but anything beyond that is difficult as they do not codeshare with other airlines.

I wouldn't say that is likely, but who knows?
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:36 am

ERJ170 wrote:
So, as other threads are doing.. what’s your RDU predictions? As for me...

AC -YUL 1x daily CRJ
AA - status quo
AS - SAN 1x daily
B6 - status quo
DL - 3 new destinations (2 domestic, 1 international less than daily)
F9 - 2 new destinations (less than daily)
G4 - 1 new dastination (3 weekly)
WN - status quo
UA - status quo

New entrants (3)
J1 - 2 to 3 destinations
NK - 4-5 destinations
WOW, Condor, or AM (less than daily)

NK to Term 1
F9 switch to Term 1

Someone starts discussion on a hangar


AC: I don't think RDU has the PDEW to YUL
AA: They've actually added a couple frequencies to DFW and ORD. May end up seeing the 777 move to a 787, and PIT dropping off.
AS: I wish, but AS isn't growing much due to the merger at the moment.
B6: Agree
DL: Think 4 domestic, no international
F9: Always a wild card. Will not switch to T1 because Charter Express handles too many other airlines to split operations.
G4: No change. Growth is being slowed by retirement of MD80s.
WN: Agree
UA: Drops back to 1 SFO after bloodbath with AS/VX. May add a DEN frequency.
J1: Agree if they actually start
NK: Won't come to RDU.

I don't think you will see any international carriers at RDU. If I had to bet on one though, Norwegian.

Lastly, surprise of the year: Silver comes to RDU if they get ATR42s.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:43 am

Why no Spirit or Intrnational carrier?
Aiming High and going far..
 
commavia
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:28 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
AA is a real hub and spoke... like United.. there really isn’t anywhere else to go except PHX and honestly, PHX adds nothing. PIT will probably go away and replaced by DL (if so, may be a way to get the 757W to POT) or WN... there is nothing else for AA to do..


I generally agree. I wouldn't say PHX "adds nothing" - it does provide a level of connectivity in the western U.S. that no other AA hub replicates, including access to multiple markets presently unreachable 1-stop with AA out of RDU, and it also compliments the connectivity already available over DFW, LAX and (to a lesser extent) CLT. Beyond that, I remain firmly of the opinion that AA is pretty much where it needs to be at RDU, with the only persistent gap - and it's a glaring one - continuing to be BOS. Beyond that, AA already has just about all of RDU's most important business O&D markets covered, and provides ample connectivity over its hubs.

remymartin11 wrote:
As AA Concierge Key Member, I fly PHX-RDU at least 2x month. Connecting via DFW and CLT is ridiculous. Always a dozen or so people on both flights. PHX is the only AA "hub" with no nonstop out of RDU.


RDU still seems, to me, to be one of the obvious future adds for AA out of PHX - along with places like BNA and COS.

ADrum23 wrote:
Even with WN's large presence at BNA, there is still a decent sized AA FF base and with the right routes, I think AA could win back some business travelers. And with OW partner BA operating the LHR flight, it would allow business travelers more flexibility when traveling overseas. WN is great if you need to travel within the 48 states, but anything beyond that is difficult as they do not codeshare with other airlines.


Again, I think AA is fairly happy with the penetration of the business/corporate travel market it already has in BNA, and RDU. In both markets, AA remains a very strong competitor. And yes, the nonstops to LHR can only help further improve AA's position relative to its rivals in both of these cities.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:48 pm

It's been rather quiet at RDU the last few months (as far as new service announcements go). I'd gotten rather used to DL announcing or launching a new route every few weeks. :)

Pax growth has been solid (not as high as 2016) and I suspect that will continue in 2018.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
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SANFan
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:35 pm

RDU-SAN pax traffic (according to DOT Table 6) for 2Q17 was 154 PDEW (and 1Q17 shows 118 PDEW.) Those figures could support a nonstop (at least seasonally) but from a SAN standpoint, there are other markets that might very well see nonstop service first. I don't know how SAN ranks on the list of unserved RDU-markets but if it's one of the larger ones, then who knows?

I have to agree with those who say AS is very unlikely to be looking at SAN-RDU in 2018. IF they are thinking seriously of adding anything from SAN this year, there are other markets I would expect to see first. AAG is definitely in a holding pattern this year regarding system expansion.

All this being said, I would love to see nonstop service between SAN and RDU - especially on AAG! I just feel that the numbers put the route right on the cusp of viability of seeing nonstop service. Of course incentives and/or subsidies could alter the equation as to that viability. (I know that there would be airport incentives on the SAN end but subsidies are very unlikely.)

In any case, good luck to The Triangle in 2018 with growth and lots of new nonstop markets!

bb
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:11 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
TWFlyGuy wrote:
It really is sad to see AA give up on P2P/Focus cities. I guess it could be mostly a fleet issue in that possibly all deliveries are covering aircraft retirements but you'd think there's some opportunity to drive incremental growth outside of the hubs.


It would be nice, but where would they add focus cities, outside of their hubs there aren't many sizable markets where they dominate the market share. STL/BNA have WN, BOS already has B6/DL, RDU has DL, AUS has WN, so most of their large non-hub markets where they already have a large FF base have been taken over by other carriers.


AA had a focus city in RDU for a while after the Midway hub collapsed and BOS has traditionally been strong for both legacy AA & legacy US. As the bankruptcy loomed they pulled back a lot of that flying. As noted, it does help that they have hubs in some of the largest metro markets leading to a natural strong market share but AA for a long time AA had a sizable P2P presence. Just unfortunate to see them cede so much to Delta in that arena. I feel like UA was never a strong P2P player but I could be wrong.
 
ScrantonUSC
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:51 pm

SANFan wrote:
RDU-SAN pax traffic (according to DOT Table 6) for 2Q17 was 154 PDEW (and 1Q17 shows 118 PDEW.) Those figures could support a nonstop (at least seasonally) but from a SAN standpoint, there are other markets that might very well see nonstop service first. I don't know how SAN ranks on the list of unserved RDU-markets but if it's one of the larger ones, then who knows?

I have to agree with those who say AS is very unlikely to be looking at SAN-RDU in 2018. IF they are thinking seriously of adding anything from SAN this year, there are other markets I would expect to see first. AAG is definitely in a holding pattern this year regarding system expansion.

All this being said, I would love to see nonstop service between SAN and RDU - especially on AAG! I just feel that the numbers put the route right on the cusp of viability of seeing nonstop service. Of course incentives and/or subsidies could alter the equation as to that viability. (I know that there would be airport incentives on the SAN end but subsidies are very unlikely.)

In any case, good luck to The Triangle in 2018 with growth and lots of new nonstop markets!

bb


If you exclude San Juan, which was announced then pulled back bc of the unfortunate events, then SAN is the #1 un-served market from RDU.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:43 pm

Didn’t AS mention SAN as a potential from RDU when VX launches SFO
Aiming High and going far..
 
Rafale9312
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:15 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
Didn’t AS mention SAN as a potential from RDU when VX launches SFO


They never mentioned any specifics, but they did say they would add another destinaton if the SFO flight met/exceeded their expectations.
 
wenders825
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:00 pm

RDU-PHX for AA is a logical add. good frequency to SAN and SJC, two markets which no one seems daring enough to jump in nonstop for whatever reason. let alone the countless other smaller markets that would now have better frequency/positioning than DFW and CLT can provide.

I could see frequencies/upgauges on DFW/ORD/PHL flights (as we've already seen..321s and 737s do PHL now). maybe a 4th flight to MIA. I don't see why PIT would be cut, it always goes out pretty full

also, the morning LAX flight should be year round. the current one is timed well for the SYD/AKL/HKG flights, but I'm sure that morning flight (which runs summer+december) could work most of the year, no?

I think LHR stays 772. don't see the 787 coming in
 
airportlover
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:43 pm

SANFan wrote:
RDU-SAN pax traffic (according to DOT Table 6) for 2Q17 was 154 PDEW (and 1Q17 shows 118 PDEW.) Those figures could support a nonstop (at least seasonally) but from a SAN standpoint, there are other markets that might very well see nonstop service first. I don't know how SAN ranks on the list of unserved RDU-markets but if it's one of the larger ones, then who knows?

I have to agree with those who say AS is very unlikely to be looking at SAN-RDU in 2018. IF they are thinking seriously of adding anything from SAN this year, there are other markets I would expect to see first. AAG is definitely in a holding pattern this year regarding system expansion.

All this being said, I would love to see nonstop service between SAN and RDU - especially on AAG! I just feel that the numbers put the route right on the cusp of viability of seeing nonstop service. Of course incentives and/or subsidies could alter the equation as to that viability. (I know that there would be airport incentives on the SAN end but subsidies are very unlikely.)

In any case, good luck to The Triangle in 2018 with growth and lots of new nonstop markets!

bb


I do think that SAN-RDU is a good market. I'm not sure how business-heavy it is, but it could support a low-cost carrier, maybe Southwest seasonally. I do not see DL opening this route with their business focus. Maybe AS because they are starting RDU-SFO on April 25, but they may stick with only serving SEA and SFO from RDU for awhile. Obviously, it won't be AA or UA. It could be Frontier. They serve 9 destinations from RDU, including LAS year-round. SAN is only a little further, but it is probably a smaller route. But Southwest is the most likely. They serve many leisure markets from RDU, including CUN, FLL, LAS, MCO, MSY, and TPA. SAN would not be too much of a stretch. WN serves two markets from SAN on the East Coast, EWR and TPA. RDU could be a feasible add. I hope this route happens!
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:27 pm

AS/VX is having a tough go of it. UA adding an additional SFO in response isn’t helping. RDU is the largest market not served by a nonstop out of SAN I believe.

ERJ170 wrote:
Why no Spirit or Intrnational carrier?


RDU isn’t exactly NK’s clientele. Their focus cities are well serviced by other carriers, and those fares are decently low as is. AM would need a slot for MEX and PDEW isn’t really high enough to warrant it. ME3 are focused on other markets like LAX. Caribbean growth is minimal/on the decline at the moment. China service is too far out. After DEN gets China service, then RDU will have a chance.
 
ScrantonUSC
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:43 pm

I believe the RDU airport president has recently stated that a realistic timeline for China (or somewhere else in Asia) would be 5-7 years.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:59 pm

Based on the completion of the new runway which is needed for the long haul flight.. yes. I believe, if DL is still active at RDU as it has been, it will be a DL or SkyTeam airline offering the flight. It’s not an if but a when. And I State this because they already have the incentive package together AND Lenovo has already gotten the Chinese part together... AND Lenovo already has a guarantee in place because they REALLY want nonstop (I.e Lenovo shuttle)
Aiming High and going far..
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:48 pm

My guess would be Hainan or China Southern. I’m the last person to say RDU is too close to ATL for DL, but I could see that arguement in this case. That being said, DL is the most likely US carrier.
 
ScrantonUSC
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:33 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
My guess would be Hainan or China Southern. I’m the last person to say RDU is too close to ATL for DL, but I could see that arguement in this case. That being said, DL is the most likely US carrier.


You peaked my interest in the possibility of a Chinese Carrier coming to RDU. Hainan makes the most sense if you look at all the US routes they already run from Beijing, where Lenovo's other dual headquarter is located. However, they don't have the onward feed opportunities from code-shares or partner airlines from RDU.

China Southern does not currently run any US service from Beijing, and they are on the outs with Delta and the other influential Skyteam carriers to the point where many are speculating them getting forced out. China Eastern, while it has the Delta feed opportunites, also does not currently run any US routes from PEK. Another very longshot possibility would be Air China, which does run a couple eastern North America routes, but is Star Alliance which does not have the feed on RDU's end. The big question mark is if Lenovo already has a corporate contract in either office? Do Chinese companies even have this custom with Chinese airlines?

The other longshot possibility would be tied to The Triangle's sizable Indian expat population and growing business ties to India in the tech field. Just for one recent example, I read that a Indian Tech company is opening a US office with plans to grow the workforce to 2000, which isn't loose talk as it's tied to an economic grant from the state.
 
Rafale9312
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:01 pm

ScrantonUSC wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
My guess would be Hainan or China Southern. I’m the last person to say RDU is too close to ATL for DL, but I could see that arguement in this case. That being said, DL is the most likely US carrier.


You peaked my interest in the possibility of a Chinese Carrier coming to RDU. Hainan makes the most sense if you look at all the US routes they already run from Beijing, where Lenovo's other dual headquarter is located. However, they don't have the onward feed opportunities from code-shares or partner airlines from RDU.

China Southern does not currently run any US service from Beijing, and they are on the outs with Delta and the other influential Skyteam carriers to the point where many are speculating them getting forced out. China Eastern, while it has the Delta feed opportunites, also does not currently run any US routes from PEK. Another very longshot possibility would be Air China, which does run a couple eastern North America routes, but is Star Alliance which does not have the feed on RDU's end. The big question mark is if Lenovo already has a corporate contract in either office? Do Chinese companies even have this custom with Chinese airlines?

The other longshot possibility would be tied to The Triangle's sizable Indian expat population and growing business ties to India in the tech field. Just for one recent example, I read that a Indian Tech company is opening a US office with plans to grow the workforce to 2000, which isn't loose talk as it's tied to an economic grant from the state.


I'd say China Eastern would be the carrier to do it if it's not Hainan - they have international flights out of Beijing along with their operations out of Shanghai, and they have a cozy relationship with Delta, but even with that, there's no guarantee that MU would take the risk of entering a medium-sized market. While I won't rule out the possibility of DL running this route, I personally think the chances of any US carrier starting RDU-Asia are pretty slim to none. This is also a longshot, but RDU could try to court one of the ME3 (or 4 if you count TK) to solve two problems at once- provide easy one-stop services to India and China.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:25 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:

Lastly, surprise of the year: Silver comes to RDU if they get ATR42s.


Interesting. Are you thinking something like RDU-JAX?
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:53 pm

Rafale9312 wrote:
ScrantonUSC wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
My guess would be Hainan or China Southern. I’m the last person to say RDU is too close to ATL for DL, but I could see that arguement in this case. That being said, DL is the most likely US carrier.


You peaked my interest in the possibility of a Chinese Carrier coming to RDU. Hainan makes the most sense if you look at all the US routes they already run from Beijing, where Lenovo's other dual headquarter is located. However, they don't have the onward feed opportunities from code-shares or partner airlines from RDU.

China Southern does not currently run any US service from Beijing, and they are on the outs with Delta and the other influential Skyteam carriers to the point where many are speculating them getting forced out. China Eastern, while it has the Delta feed opportunites, also does not currently run any US routes from PEK. Another very longshot possibility would be Air China, which does run a couple eastern North America routes, but is Star Alliance which does not have the feed on RDU's end. The big question mark is if Lenovo already has a corporate contract in either office? Do Chinese companies even have this custom with Chinese airlines?

The other longshot possibility would be tied to The Triangle's sizable Indian expat population and growing business ties to India in the tech field. Just for one recent example, I read that a Indian Tech company is opening a US office with plans to grow the workforce to 2000, which isn't loose talk as it's tied to an economic grant from the state.


I'd say China Eastern would be the carrier to do it if it's not Hainan - they have international flights out of Beijing along with their operations out of Shanghai, and they have a cozy relationship with Delta, but even with that, there's no guarantee that MU would take the risk of entering a medium-sized market. While I won't rule out the possibility of DL running this route, I personally think the chances of any US carrier starting RDU-Asia are pretty slim to none. This is also a longshot, but RDU could try to court one of the ME3 (or 4 if you count TK) to solve two problems at once- provide easy one-stop services to India and China.


A ME3 carrier would be great add due to RDUs growing Indian population. Qatar seems the most logical with a 787, but I don't know if AA would object because it would impact their LHR flight. Etihad seems to be going through a shrinking of sorts in the US at the moment. Emirates doesn't have anything smaller than a 777. I don't believe RDU has enough demand to fill a plane of that size up, even with 3-4x weekly service. Partly because Emirates has no codeshare agreements with DL, UA, or AA.

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:

Lastly, surprise of the year: Silver comes to RDU if they get ATR42s.


Interesting. Are you thinking something like RDU-JAX?


JAX would be a great add to start. The armchair CEO in me says they should also consider SDF, CHS, MYR, RIC, and BHM if they indeed expand out of FL this year. Like I said, would be a big surprise, but a welcomed one.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:14 pm

ScrantonUSC wrote:

The other longshot possibility would be tied to The Triangle's sizable Indian expat population and growing business ties to India in the tech field. Just for one recent example, I read that a Indian Tech company is opening a US office with plans to grow the workforce to 2000, which isn't loose talk as it's tied to an economic grant from the state.


People (even folks here) don't realize that the RDU area has the 12th largest Indian population in the US. That being said, I'm not expecting any flights to India (or anywhere in Asia) within the next 10 years.

I'd be happy if we could just get two BHM flights/day and maybe 2 SDF. :)
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:41 am

So, what’s the thought on a UA club at RDU? They don’t seem to have too many outside their hubs and TX stations, but should RDU be talking to them about it or is the station too small. Thoughts?
Aiming High and going far..
 
jplatts
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:42 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
So, what’s the thought on a UA club at RDU? They don’t seem to have too many outside their hubs and TX stations, but should RDU be talking to them about it or is the station too small. Thoughts?


Delta has a focus city at RDU, and Southwest also still has significant market share at RDU, even with the DL focus city at RDU. In addition to that, DL already also has a Sky Club at its RDU focus city, and UA mainline only has 6.74% market share out of RDU.
 
thegreatRDU
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:05 pm

A well-timed AA rotation to PHX 1x a day on a 319 will work.
I really think WOW should give RDU a shot at least seasonally.
I'm also crossing my fingers for NK.
Our Returning Champion
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:15 pm

I am still hoping for someone to restart some of the regional routes like SAV, CHS, ORF, AVL, MEM, CAE, etc.. even if it’s a 9 seater
Aiming High and going far..
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:36 pm

thegreatRDU wrote:
A well-timed AA rotation to PHX 1x a day on a 319 will work.
I really think WOW should give RDU a shot at least seasonally.
I'm also crossing my fingers for NK.


AA won’t start PHX at RDU. When US had the route the yield was atrocious. There aren’t many destinations PHX serves (esp anything anyone at RDU travels to) that DFW or LAX don’t offer.
 
remymartin11
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:09 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
thegreatRDU wrote:
A well-timed AA rotation to PHX 1x a day on a 319 will work.
I really think WOW should give RDU a shot at least seasonally.
I'm also crossing my fingers for NK.


AA won’t start PHX at RDU. When US had the route the yield was atrocious. There aren’t many destinations PHX serves (esp anything anyone at RDU travels to) that DFW or LAX don’t offer.


I fly PHX-RDU 12-20 times per year and flight always has ton of people on both legs via CLT or DFW. AA should make PHX-RDU happen. PHX is the ONLY AA HUB without a non stop to RDU.
 
skyguy87
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:39 pm

What does everyone think about UAL? With DL and AA having international flights to London and Paris; when does UAL join the party and add one as well? DL and AA have mechanics at RDU, I wonder if they would have to add mechanics with an international flight or if they would use Signature/TAC for their maintenance.
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:27 pm

remymartin11 wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
thegreatRDU wrote:
A well-timed AA rotation to PHX 1x a day on a 319 will work.
I really think WOW should give RDU a shot at least seasonally.
I'm also crossing my fingers for NK.


AA won’t start PHX at RDU. When US had the route the yield was atrocious. There aren’t many destinations PHX serves (esp anything anyone at RDU travels to) that DFW or LAX don’t offer.


I fly PHX-RDU 12-20 times per year and flight always has ton of people on both legs via CLT or DFW. AA should make PHX-RDU happen. PHX is the ONLY AA HUB without a non stop to RDU.


Just because you have a decent number of people (my guess 10-18 at most) on your flight connecting to PHX doesn't make it profitable for AA to dedicate an A319 for eight hours a day on the route. I've worked at AA at RDU, and I know the numbers. AUS, SAT, and others have more passengers connecting on AA than PHX. If there were a benefit to add PHX, it would have been brought back by now.

If you are worried about AA in RDU, you need to focus on keeping PIT, not seeing more PHL reductions, and how LHR is performing with a 777. There are only two days the rest of the month LHR that have less than 120 seats open. Some days over 200 seats open.
 
jplatts
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:41 pm

Southwest used to have nonstop service from RDU to PHL before dropping RDU-PHL nonstop service almost 5 years ago, but Delta had did add RDU-PHL nonstop service almost 6 months after Southwest discontinued RDU-PHL nonstop service. There were some individuals who did not like Southwest dropping RDU-PHL nonstop service 5 years ago.

Is the demand really there for additional nonstop service to PHL beyond the existing RDU-PHL nonstop service on AA and DL? Will Southwest ever bring back RDU-PHL nonstop service in the future?

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