Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:30 pm

I just learned something about Amazon. No city landing HQ2 should think that this will mean a jump in the sale of first class seats leading to easily added routes. Apparently when it comes to corporate travel, Amazon is really cheap. They only pay for economy and that includes travel for senior executives.

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-peek-a ... ity-2014-4

A person can upgrade a seat but at their own expense. Of course there will be many free domestic upgrades but it also means there will be very few international first class seats filled by Amazon staff.
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:36 pm

IND-DEN down to 3x week (Day 247)for F9 starting May 6th. (Daily Summer 2017)
IND-LAS up to 4x week (Day x247) for F9 starting April 9th. (Launched July 2017)
G4 IND-AUS goes 3x week (Day 247) starting May 27th.
WN IND-BWI is only 2x right now (1x on Saturday!) It goes back up to 3x daily in March.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:44 pm

IND-CDG flights are selling really well, for the first week of service 24th, 25th, 26th, 29th, 30th, 31st all are selling very well for 4+ months in advance.

P2P flying seems to be doing well too, I was checking IND-MCO/RSW for March 24th and both are almost sold out.

With regards to the interview with the Exec Director, I have a contact who is pretty high up in city government. Basically what he said is that redevelopment of the airport land hasn't garnered that much interest, so more than likely the announcement from the airport won't be about land redevelopment. He did say though that the city is pushing the Post Office to move their main branch from downtown to the airport, they have even met with the Post Master General about it and they toured the land with him, however at this point the USPS isn't that interested. It more than likely isn't FedEx related either, I asked and he said the only thing he had heard recently about FedEx was the $385 million incentive that was offered which was announced last year. Plus, they just announced 2 major expansions during the last third of 2017, so I wouldn't expect another announcement at the beginning of 2018.

Bringing FI to IND would not count as a "bucket list" item professionally for the Exec Director, so I doubt it is that, he wouldn't tease an FI announcement like that.
And plus, the city would definitely not be eager to ink a deal to bring FI, when they have said their primary focus is insuring that the DL IND-CDG flight is successful...
Last edited by Midwestindy on Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:47 pm

I really don't like the idea of IND land being used for non aviation purposes. That is valuable land that you just can't get back if you allow someone else to build on it. IND needs to think more long term. If it isn't land and it isn't FedEx then it likely will be a DL focus city. The Exec Director let the cat out of the bag a little with the connections comment. That is something that isn't possible as of today. I guess it could always be an Icelandair announcement. But didn't the interview act like it was a big deal for central Indiana economically? A Delta focus city could be. That would mean more flights and that is always good for business.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:55 pm

Indy wrote:
The Exec Director let the cat out of the bag a little with the connections comment. That is something that isn't possible as of today. I guess it could always be an Icelandair announcement. But didn't the interview act like it was a big deal for central Indiana economically? A Delta focus city could be. That would mean more flights and that is always good for business.


Yeah, I'm leaning that way as well, especially since there is an announcement coming from the city of Austin.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:57 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I'm leaning that way as well, especially since there is an announcement coming from the city of Austin.


When is Austin's announcement? I wonder if this stuff would get announced on the same date or different dates.
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ADrum23
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:00 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Indy wrote:
The Exec Director let the cat out of the bag a little with the connections comment. That is something that isn't possible as of today. I guess it could always be an Icelandair announcement. But didn't the interview act like it was a big deal for central Indiana economically? A Delta focus city could be. That would mean more flights and that is always good for business.


Yeah, I'm leaning that way as well, especially since there is an announcement coming from the city of Austin.


To refresh my memory, can someone explain what announcement is coming at IND?
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:17 pm

Indy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I'm leaning that way as well, especially since there is an announcement coming from the city of Austin.


When is Austin's announcement? I wonder if this stuff would get announced on the same date or different dates.


Feb 6th

ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Indy wrote:
The Exec Director let the cat out of the bag a little with the connections comment. That is something that isn't possible as of today. I guess it could always be an Icelandair announcement. But didn't the interview act like it was a big deal for central Indiana economically? A Delta focus city could be. That would mean more flights and that is always good for business.


Yeah, I'm leaning that way as well, especially since there is an announcement coming from the city of Austin.


To refresh my memory, can someone explain what announcement is coming at IND?


The Exec Director gave an interview in late December of last year in which he said that the IND-CDG flight was the start in making IND (and this is a direct quote) "a real, real, connecting point for Delta." He then talked more about potential connecting traffic, and later in the interview, he was asked about bucket list items he is working on professionally, and he said that the airport and the city were working on a major deal. But when asked what the deal was he just laughed and said there would be an announcement from the city soon.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:49 pm

Indy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I'm leaning that way as well, especially since there is an announcement coming from the city of Austin.


When is Austin's announcement? I wonder if this stuff would get announced on the same date or different dates.


I heard Feb. 6th.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:50 pm

zackary747 wrote:
I heard Feb. 6th.


Yay. The day after I get home from vacation. I'll be flying IND-ATL-FLL on Jan 27th and FLL-ATL-IND on Feb 5th. Anyone going to be at IND on the 27th? Flight is at 10am.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:58 pm

Can we talk Delta Focus City viability here for just a moment? There are so many hub locations within 600 miles of Indy that cover all of Delta's major network comfortably it would seem; why on earth would they be interested in creating a focus city here and what benefit would it have? DTW doesn't seem to be at capacity? At one point I thought a focus city might work if the costs were more efficient and CVG wasn't around, but haven't they been adding to CVG again recently? I'm not sure what ads Delta could make in IND... LAS seems flooded with ULCC and WN. The Florida markets are the same way, but Delta does have a big FF base in FL and IN so maybe thats where we'll see a couple more RJ markets and maybe something from Texas announced?
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:23 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
Can we talk Delta Focus City viability here for just a moment? There are so many hub locations within 600 miles of Indy that cover all of Delta's major network comfortably it would seem; why on earth would they be interested in creating a focus city here and what benefit would it have? DTW doesn't seem to be at capacity? At one point I thought a focus city might work if the costs were more efficient and CVG wasn't around, but haven't they been adding to CVG again recently? I'm not sure what ads Delta could make in IND... LAS seems flooded with ULCC and WN. The Florida markets are the same way, but Delta does have a big FF base in FL and IN so maybe thats where we'll see a couple more RJ markets and maybe something from Texas announced?


Why? Because focus cities and hubs are apples and oranges. The idea behind the focus city is to take advantage of p2p demand. And it would be very smart of Delta to take this on and go after this traffic before the LCC's and ULCC's come in and take away all of that leaving Delta and other carriers with nothing more than feed to small markets. Same reason it is smart for Delta to get IND-CDG before a European carrier comes in and takes their premium traffic. And there may be city money involved. Plus there will likely be advertising credits with the IAA. And let us not forget that such an announcement generates a ton of free publicity. You get a bunch when the focus city is announced and you get more each time you add a route to your operation. Best PR money can buy.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:28 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
Can we talk Delta Focus City viability here for just a moment? There are so many hub locations within 600 miles of Indy that cover all of Delta's major network comfortably it would seem; why on earth would they be interested in creating a focus city here and what benefit would it have? DTW doesn't seem to be at capacity? At one point I thought a focus city might work if the costs were more efficient and CVG wasn't around, but haven't they been adding to CVG again recently? I'm not sure what ads Delta could make in IND... LAS seems flooded with ULCC and WN. The Florida markets are the same way, but Delta does have a big FF base in FL and IN so maybe thats where we'll see a couple more RJ markets and maybe something from Texas announced?


The goal isn't to replace DTW, but rather to capture more of the local market out of IND. From what I understand, the centerpiece of this strategy from DL would be the flight to CDG, and the extra flights/routes would be to bolster that flight. Having IND and CVG nearby shouldn't affect the network, very few connections through CVG connect to the CDG flight, while from the way it sounds(and if this ends up happening) most connections through IND would be to the CDG flight. Furthermore, according to their investor day presentation, they are focused on developing point-of-sale strength in non-hub stations, and adding p2p flights certainly helps with that. DL controls around 10 gates at IND anyway, so it's not like they are crunched for space...
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:49 am

Indy wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
Can we talk Delta Focus City viability here for just a moment? There are so many hub locations within 600 miles of Indy that cover all of Delta's major network comfortably it would seem; why on earth would they be interested in creating a focus city here and what benefit would it have? DTW doesn't seem to be at capacity? At one point I thought a focus city might work if the costs were more efficient and CVG wasn't around, but haven't they been adding to CVG again recently? I'm not sure what ads Delta could make in IND... LAS seems flooded with ULCC and WN. The Florida markets are the same way, but Delta does have a big FF base in FL and IN so maybe thats where we'll see a couple more RJ markets and maybe something from Texas announced?


Why? Because focus cities and hubs are apples and oranges. The idea behind the focus city is to take advantage of p2p demand. And it would be very smart of Delta to take this on and go after this traffic before the LCC's and ULCC's come in and take away all of that leaving Delta and other carriers with nothing more than feed to small markets. Same reason it is smart for Delta to get IND-CDG before a European carrier comes in and takes their premium traffic. And there may be city money involved. Plus there will likely be advertising credits with the IAA. And let us not forget that such an announcement generates a ton of free publicity. You get a bunch when the focus city is announced and you get more each time you add a route to your operation. Best PR money can buy.


Well the terms aren't definite and hence my question, airlines can call things whatever they want..."hub" "focus city" etc. Sometimes I hear Focus City to mean "Small Hub" implying there's a strategy to provide connections. What this looks like, hypothetically, for discussion sake is an opportunity here for DL to capitalize on a larger P2P demand that may also benefit their CDG flight.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:27 am

flyboy80 wrote:
Well the terms aren't definite and hence my question, airlines can call things whatever they want..."hub" "focus city" etc. Sometimes I hear Focus City to mean "Small Hub" implying there's a strategy to provide connections. What this looks like, hypothetically, for discussion sake is an opportunity here for DL to capitalize on a larger P2P demand that may also benefit their CDG flight.


The more seats DL fills on IND-CDG the more incentive money they get from the state.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:19 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I'm leaning that way as well, especially since there is an announcement coming from the city of Austin.


After doing a little careful listening to the podcast, the Exec Director stated that we had 48 nonstop destinations. That puts the recording prior to November 2nd. November 2nd was when WN announced service to OAK. That put us to 49. The two G4 routes announced recently put us to 51. On December 4th FX announced the $385 million dollar upgrade. So when the Executive Director mentioned city hall, it would have been prior to November 2nd and he was probably talking about what FedEx announced.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:09 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
Can we talk Delta Focus City viability here for just a moment? There are so many hub locations within 600 miles of Indy that cover all of Delta's major network comfortably it would seem; why on earth would they be interested in creating a focus city here and what benefit would it have? DTW doesn't seem to be at capacity? At one point I thought a focus city might work if the costs were more efficient and CVG wasn't around, but haven't they been adding to CVG again recently? I'm not sure what ads Delta could make in IND... LAS seems flooded with ULCC and WN. The Florida markets are the same way, but Delta does have a big FF base in FL and IN so maybe thats where we'll see a couple more RJ markets and maybe something from Texas announced?



That's what I thought to with CVG, DTW, and MSP all nearby.
Maybe LAS, TPA, 1x week?
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:56 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
Can we talk Delta Focus City viability here for just a moment? There are so many hub locations within 600 miles of Indy that cover all of Delta's major network comfortably it would seem; why on earth would they be interested in creating a focus city here and what benefit would it have? DTW doesn't seem to be at capacity? At one point I thought a focus city might work if the costs were more efficient and CVG wasn't around, but haven't they been adding to CVG again recently? I'm not sure what ads Delta could make in IND... LAS seems flooded with ULCC and WN. The Florida markets are the same way, but Delta does have a big FF base in FL and IN so maybe thats where we'll see a couple more RJ markets and maybe something from Texas announced?



That's what I thought to with CVG, DTW, and MSP all nearby.
Maybe LAS, TPA, 1x week?


1x weekly service to TPA or LAS wouldn't really provide anything in the way of connecting traffic for the CDG flight...
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:12 pm

Indy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I'm leaning that way as well, especially since there is an announcement coming from the city of Austin.


After doing a little careful listening to the podcast, the Exec Director stated that we had 48 nonstop destinations. That puts the recording prior to November 2nd. November 2nd was when WN announced service to OAK. That put us to 49. The two G4 routes announced recently put us to 51. On December 4th FX announced the $385 million dollar upgrade. So when the Executive Director mentioned city hall, it would have been prior to November 2nd and he was probably talking about what FedEx announced.


I'm going to post the link again for reference.
https://www.spreaker.com/user/echochamb ... -rodriguez

Looks like a December podcast, not November (If I am reading this correctly.)
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:20 pm

I don't think the proximity to CVG/DTW/ATL is an issue for IND. NW's focus city operated just fine in the SkyTeam network before. In 2007, NW (DL) operated the following routes (bold are currently operated):

Delta: Atlanta, Cincinnati, New York–JFK

Mainline: Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Memphis, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York–LaGuardia, Orlando, Tampa
Seasonal: Cancún, Denver, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, San Francisco, Seattle/Tacoma

Regional: Boston, Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Hartford, Kansas City, Memphis, New York–LaGuardia, Philadelphia, Raleigh/Durham, Washington–National

In addition, DL now serves Salt Lake City, Miami, and Paris–Charles de Gaulle. I see no reason why DL could't replicate the old NW focus city, and in fact, I think they will. I am sure they will try some different routes like IND-AUS/SAT instead of some of the RJ routes like CVG/MEM/MCI that are probably not going to work anymore.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:23 pm

zackary747 wrote:
I'm going to post the link again for reference.
https://www.spreaker.com/user/echochamb ... -rodriguez

Looks like a December podcast, not November (If I am reading this correctly.)


It was posted in December. We have no idea when it was actually recorded. If the Executive Director gave correct numbers then it had to have been recorded prior to November 2nd.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:42 pm

Indy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
I'm going to post the link again for reference.
https://www.spreaker.com/user/echochamb ... -rodriguez

Looks like a December podcast, not November (If I am reading this correctly.)


It was posted in December. We have no idea when it was actually recorded. If the Executive Director gave correct numbers then it had to have been recorded prior to November 2nd.


Since there is such a grey area, I️ think we should just disregard that part of the interview. The rest of the interview has lots of useful information though, like the fact that Cummins, Lilly, and the like are helping with bringing more flights, plus what he said about DL connections is very intriguing...
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:13 pm

cvgComair wrote:
I don't think the proximity to CVG/DTW/ATL is an issue for IND. NW's focus city operated just fine in the SkyTeam network before. In 2007, NW (DL) operated the following routes (bold are currently operated):

Delta: Atlanta, Cincinnati, New York–JFK

Mainline: Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Memphis, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York–LaGuardia, Orlando, Tampa
Seasonal: Cancún, Denver, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, San Francisco, Seattle/Tacoma

Regional: Boston, Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Hartford, Kansas City, Memphis, New York–LaGuardia, Philadelphia, Raleigh/Durham, Washington–National

In addition, DL now serves Salt Lake City, Miami, and Paris–Charles de Gaulle. I see no reason why DL could't replicate the old NW focus city, and in fact, I think they will. I am sure they will try some different routes like IND-AUS/SAT instead of some of the RJ routes like CVG/MEM/MCI that are probably not going to work anymore.


LAS, TPA, FLL, DCA, AUS, SAT, and BDL could all work today.(except they would need to get enough slots for IND-DCA to be 2-3x daily) Those types of adds would be important in gaining point-of-sale strength from WN and AA (something that DL told their investors they are planning on working on), and those possible adds would hardly affect DLs operations at CVG, DTW, or ATL.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:34 am

I think we'll see the following on DL by 2020:
These are things I see as possibilities, approximately in their order of likelihood.
ATL Multiple daily A321 frequencies
AUS Daily CR9
DTW More mainline 717/A319
MSP More mainline A320/possible 739 operation
LGA Seasonal 717 frequency
SLC 2nd daily flight on E75
RDU 3rd daily flight on CRJ
MSY Daily CR9
BDL Daily CR9
BNA 2x Daily CR7
MEM Daily CRJ
MCO 2nd daily flight on CR9
LAS Weekend A319 (daily CS100 if they want to split connections through IND)
DCA 3x Daily CR7 (assuming slots)
LAX 2nd daily flight on CS100 (both move to CS100 operation)
MEX Daily E75 (At new Mexico City Airport) Could also be AM E90.
TPA Weekend CR9
BOS 1x Daily 717 frequency (doubtful)

Laugh about these!
CVG 3x Daily CRJ (laughable!!)
CLT 2x daily CRJ
AMS Seasonal 4x weekly 76W
CDG Increase to A333 daily
EWR 2x Daily CR7
ICN 4x weekly A332
DL moves DTW hub to IND. "We've always hated Detroit, and so, when we got the chance to move our flights to IND and build a new $2,400,000,000 terminal, we jumped at the chance," said Delta CEO Edward Bastian. "IND gave us a great offer, and we want them to be our new CVG. We're starting Comair 2.0 which will operate 400 daily CRJ flights out of IND and we plan to increase fares to $600 on average, no, make that exact. Saves on bookkeeping costs. We look forward to reducing local demand, making IND a 95% connecting hub, and then dehub the airport in 10 years moving all its flights to ATL. ATL will see 16 daily A321s to MKE, for example, as IND, CVG, DTW, and RDU flights, consolidated at ATL, make it a 1600 daily flight hub. Just watch EK and QR try to land when we've jammed that place!

"We thank IND for the support it will have to give us as we crowd everyone else out. AA, DL, and WN, will be allowed 3 daily flights each maximum and want to tell you to enjoy your $855 basic economy fare on one of our 11 daily CRJs to CVG!"


If they did, half of Airliners would strike, the other half would cheer through the streets.... :smile:
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:37 am

Sorry for flooding this thread, just a few things I wanted to point out:

DL updated their schedules this weekend and are now running their premium-heavy 763 (36 J, 32 Y+) for the inaugural IND-CDG flight...

Maybe a sign of things to come if the flights are selling this well so far in advance....? Just look at the seat maps for June 4th and June 6th...

Other things in terms of fleet, DL is adding more 737ERs on ATL-IND and adding a few 737ER flights to DTW and MSP, plus DL is adding the A319 to more flights (MSP, SEA, SLC, LAX, and DTW), which are certainly upgrades from the 717s and MD88s with the new interior updates in the A319s.

Finally, with the additional service to CDG, JFK, and SEA, DL should pass WN for second this summer in terms of peak-daily departures.

SumChristianus wrote:
I think we'll see the following on DL by 2020:
These are things I see as possibilities, approximately in their order of likelihood.

All of those seem reasonable

SumChristianus wrote:
CLT 2x daily CRJ
AMS Seasonal 4x weekly 76W
CDG Increase to A333 daily
EWR 2x Daily CR7

Some of these wouldn't shock me by 2020, maybe not CLT, but if the CDG does well maybe they upguage to an A339/A332/e.t.c

SumChristianus wrote:
DL moves DTW hub to IND. "We've always hated Detroit, and so, when we got the chance to move our flights to IND and build a new $2,400,000,000 terminal, we jumped at the chance," said Delta CEO Edward Bastian. "IND gave us a great offer, and we want them to be our new CVG. We're starting Comair 2.0 which will operate 400 daily CRJ flights out of IND and we plan to increase fares to $600 on average, no, make that exact. Saves on bookkeeping costs. We look forward to reducing local demand, making IND a 95% connecting hub, and then dehub the airport in 10 years moving all its flights to ATL. ATL will see 16 daily A321s to MKE, for example, as IND, CVG, DTW, and RDU flights, consolidated at ATL, make it a 1600 daily flight hub. Just watch EK and QR try to land when we've jammed that place!

"We thank IND for the support it will have to give us as we crowd everyone else out. AA, DL, and WN, will be allowed 3 daily flights each maximum and want to tell you to enjoy your $855 basic economy fare on one of our 11 daily CRJs to CVG!"
[/i]

If they did, half of Airliners would strike, the other half would cheer through the streets.... :smile:


Seems reasonable to me :spin:
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:05 am

Ment the last few (italicized) to be ironic/humorous. DEN could also happen on DL before DCA if F9 continues shrinking and UA remains "statically down" on the route. They've grown a lot on CVG-DEN, which doesn't have WN at the moment. (I expect them to enter it soon, though.)
EWR, would probably, like RDU-EWR stimulate a response by UA. Instead of a short-lived IND-LGA, UA would probably add mainline in response to EWR.
DEN and LAX seem to have the potential each for more carriers.
DEN from DL and G4
LAX from UA, G4, AS, F9 (to somewhere nearby)
Wouldn't it be funny if one (city-pair) route was served by every domestic carrier at IND! Los Angeles could happen that way, as several rumors you posted and the G4 CVG-LAX analogy seems to point in that direction.

I don't see much space for SY beyond international destinations and maybe RSW at the moment. MCO seems to be too saturated with capacity, looking at demand. On loads, though IND-Florida does surprisingly well for the amount of capacity both nonstop and connecting, devoted to it.

G4 I now see as likely on RDU, PVD, DEN, PBI, LAX, AVL, ORF, and BWI (IND-Washington capacity has fallen a lot recently)
F9 seems likely to be stagnant now.

UA, looking at DB1B against T100 seems to have ~500 PDEW international connections from IND. I wonder if IND-CDG hurts UA most at ORD, IAD, and EWR from IND as it loses European passengers thrugh those gateways.

I wonder where all the CDG passengers are coming from as IND had only around 250 PDEW of European demand and retains many good connections through ORD, DTW, JFK, EWR, IAD, PHL, etc.
UK demand is probably not going through Paris, so where would 200 PDEW come from to fill a 767? DL won't capture 100% of IND-EUR O&D, 80% through CDG, would they?
Looking at all the data sources I can see, most routes from IND (and everywhere) seem very unsustainable on both local and possible connecting O&D. Is DB1B (multiplying by 10 and dividing by 91 for a quarter) missing some passengers?
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-DEN UA CR7
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flyboy80
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:03 pm

I’m really trying to look at capacity and how The Delta network of 2018 would work with an Indy focus city. When I think focus city I would think the following examples: some quite ambitious from the NW days; however that was a different network with vast different traffic flows. I believe NW was using almost exclusively A319, D95, CR2.

Additions for Delta IND focus (I’m just going to use cx to denote connection- indicating either 175/170/CR7/CR9:

RSW(cx)
MSY x6/wk(cx)
BNA (cx)
AUS (cx)
DAL or DFW (dfw more likely) 2x daily(cx)
MCI (cx)
STL seasonal (cx)
CUN (ML or connection increase in weekly frequency seasonally, 3x)
MCO (ml/ seasonal cx)
TPA (ml/ seasonal cx)
ORD (I think they could really do this with their FF base here- 3x daily cx)
LAS/SFO (ml and seasonal)
SAT (cx- 5x/ daily depending on season)
DEN (cx)
FLL (cx/ seasonal ML)
BWI/IAD (maybe eventually moved to DCA- cx) select Caribbean Sat only seasonally...

With these types of hypothetical adds, what types of impacts would they have on DTW, MSP, ATL frequencies? I could see MSP going to 5x 1 mainline, 2 mainline seasonal and DTW to 6x daily 1 or 2 mainline. ATL might lose a frequency as well?
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:34 pm

I remember when NW tried IND-STL it was a complete disaster. They originally scheduled it at 3x daily and in no time at all the route was canceled. Then again you cannot expect a route to succeed when you are charging $600+ a ticket to a destination you could just as easily drive to. Plus I think WN was on the route at that time as well.
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ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:39 pm

If WN could charge what they do for there shorthaul routes in Texas and out west people would fly to MKE STL BNA MEM ect

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indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:26 pm

I'd love to see DL grow but I think there are some limits to it.

I think one of the elements to keep in mind is comparing the NW focus city to what DL may do is a bit like apples and oranges. NW was dominant at the time because no one else was. They were trying to fill the void of a fallen ATA and at the time, WN, UA, etc. didn't have nearly the kind of routes out of IND then as they do today.

I could see BDL, AUS and maybe a couple other additions, but I struggle to see too much else, especially where there's already big competition (DEN, ORD, BWI, LAS, SFO, etc). I'd love DCA to be added back to the mix but I think WN has a better shot at bringing that back than DL.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:28 pm

indygs wrote:
I'd love to see DL grow but I think there are some limits to it.

I think one of the elements to keep in mind is comparing the NW focus city to what DL may do is a bit like apples and oranges. NW was dominant at the time because no one else was. They were trying to fill the void of a fallen ATA and at the time, WN, UA, etc. didn't have nearly the kind of routes out of IND then as they do today.

I could see BDL, AUS and maybe a couple other additions, but I struggle to see too much else, especially where there's already big competition (DEN, ORD, BWI, LAS, SFO, etc). I'd love DCA to be added back to the mix but I think WN has a better shot at bringing that back than DL.


Actually NW wasn't filling a TZ void. They were going at it like prize fighters. When NW had their nearly 50 flight focus city going, TZ was running their hub here.
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:39 pm

Northwest came in and built the IND operation as a loss leader, essentially rallying its strong frequent flyer base, which it had built up throughout the preceding years, generating new business, and then taking it from there. Sadly, the move pretty much wiped out ATA and kept US Airways from trying to get creative again, as the first year to two years was insane pricing.

I lived in St. Louis at the time and made the drive to Indy 4 times to fly to New York City. Not once did I pay more than $99 with taxes for any of those four tickets. By comparison, STL-NYC area was pricing out $400+.

As we know, eventually as ATA went away and US Airways pretty much stayed put, the service offerings started scaling back, and the prices went back up as NWA's own financial turbulence came into play.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:41 pm

stlgph wrote:
I lived in St. Louis at the time and made the drive to Indy 4 times to fly to New York City. Not once did I pay more than $99 with taxes for any of those four tickets. By comparison, STL-NYC area was pricing out $400+.


The situation had changed in the St. Louis market after Southwest added STL-LGA nonstop service almost 6 years ago, and the roundtrip fare for the STL-LGA nonstop flights on Southwest is currently around $260 if purchased at least 21 days in advance.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:49 pm

Indy wrote:
indygs wrote:
I'd love to see DL grow but I think there are some limits to it.

I think one of the elements to keep in mind is comparing the NW focus city to what DL may do is a bit like apples and oranges. NW was dominant at the time because no one else was. They were trying to fill the void of a fallen ATA and at the time, WN, UA, etc. didn't have nearly the kind of routes out of IND then as they do today.

I could see BDL, AUS and maybe a couple other additions, but I struggle to see too much else, especially where there's already big competition (DEN, ORD, BWI, LAS, SFO, etc). I'd love DCA to be added back to the mix but I think WN has a better shot at bringing that back than DL.


Actually NW wasn't filling a TZ void. They were going at it like prize fighters. When NW had their nearly 50 flight focus city going, TZ was running their hub here.


Indy, that's not how I remember it, and Wikipedia seems to think the same, but perhaps there are holes in my memory?!

"In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Indianapolis was a hub for then locally based ATA Airlines and its regional affiliate, Chicago Express/ATA Connection. After that airline entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in late 2004 operations at IND were cut, then eliminated in 2006.[6]

ATA's demise gave Northwest Airlines an opportunity to expand operations, making Indianapolis a focus city with mainline flights to the West Coast, East Coast, and the South. Northwest was later absorbed by Delta Air Lines in late 2008."

As I recall, NWA smelled blood and went after it hard, with only a few months of overlap with ATA still serving Indy.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:11 pm

You can see the history of NW adds in IND in these forums.

https://www.indairport.org/forums/26/pg1/

The last add was in Feb of 2008. ATA ceased operations in April of 2008. Route terminations started in the summer of 2008.
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indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:04 pm

Indy wrote:
You can see the history of NW adds in IND in these forums.

https://www.indairport.org/forums/26/pg1/

The last add was in Feb of 2008. ATA ceased operations in April of 2008. Route terminations started in the summer of 2008.


True, but wasn't ATA's last flight out of IND in 2006?
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:07 pm

indygs wrote:
True, but wasn't ATA's last flight out of IND in 2006?


Ah yeah you're right. It may have been the start of 2006. Scrolling through Wikipedia's history to find information on it. But looks roughly about that time.
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indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:33 pm

Indy wrote:
indygs wrote:
True, but wasn't ATA's last flight out of IND in 2006?


Ah yeah you're right. It may have been the start of 2006. Scrolling through Wikipedia's history to find information on it. But looks roughly about that time.


Yeah, I think it was in the first couple months of 2006. I seem to remember the last destination for them was MDW and it was 3X a day on those Saab turbos before they sold those assets and tried to double down on their codeshare agreement with WN.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:51 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
I’m really trying to look at capacity and how The Delta network of 2018 would work with an Indy focus city. When I think focus city I would think the following examples: some quite ambitious from the NW days; however that was a different network with vast different traffic flows. I believe NW was using almost exclusively A319, D95, CR2.

Additions for Delta IND focus (I’m just going to use cx to denote connection- indicating either 175/170/CR7/CR9:

ORD (I think they could really do this with their FF base here- 3x daily cx)
LAS/SFO (ml and seasonal)

With these types of hypothetical adds, what types of impacts would they have on DTW, MSP, ATL frequencies? I could see MSP going to 5x 1 mainline, 2 mainline seasonal and DTW to 6x daily 1 or 2 mainline. ATL might lose a frequency as well?


IND-ORD isn't that big of a market though, plus it would be hard for DL to compete with 20+ daily flights, maybe a MKE flight timed for connections would work better...
I'd say for now that the IND-SFO is a little too saturated for DL to hop in

ATL might go down to 7-8x daily with A320s and A319s instead of B737ERs and MD88s..

indygs wrote:
I'd love to see DL grow but I think there are some limits to it.

I think one of the elements to keep in mind is comparing the NW focus city to what DL may do is a bit like apples and oranges. NW was dominant at the time because no one else was. They were trying to fill the void of a fallen ATA and at the time, WN, UA, etc. didn't have nearly the kind of routes out of IND then as they do today.

I could see BDL, AUS and maybe a couple other additions, but I struggle to see too much else, especially where there's already big competition (DEN, ORD, BWI, LAS, SFO, etc). I'd love DCA to be added back to the mix but I think WN has a better shot at bringing that back than DL.


BWI isn't really that competitive, only WN is on that route. I'd also argue that LAS wouldn't be that competitive for DL considering most of the current service is ULCC and their only competition would be WN. Personally, I would prefer DL on IND-DCA than WN, but that is just me. Don't forget, adding connections kind of changes the game a little and allows more routes to work than if it was just O&D alone.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:00 pm

I was closely involved with NW sales for many years, starting in the Mid 80's in Indiana, before the NW/RC merger. (out of the industry now) It was an interesting time. Here's my recollection of what happened. This history partially explains what is happening today.

To feed NW's international operation from CHI to Asia, IND was an important off-line market. The only efficient routing to Asia was NW via the ORD NRT n/s. (the only ORD/Aisa N/S at the time) In 1986, NW inherited RC's routes to the three RC Hubs of MEM, MSP, and DTW, with strong yields, and a natural position between the three hubs. This allowed NW to grow corporate markets via excellent connecting opportunities, as US pulled down it's IND hub. The strong yields at that time positioned IND as one of the strongest non-hub cities in NW's domestic markets for a 20 year period from the RC/NW merger.

For example, at one point General Motors largest city pair was DTW-IND. And GM was NW's largest single corporate customer at that time. (they still had extensive operations throughout Indiana) GM, along with Lilly, Ford, Chrysler, Cummins, and the growth of Japanese auto manufacturing really helped NW build a strong FF base in IND in the 90's.

TZ tried to move in as US pulled town it's operation. TZ added multiple NS markets from IND. NW meanwhile added a few select PTP flights in high yield markets like MKE and LGA. LGA had great yields, and was profitable. It also battled WN adding flights to Detroit City airport and DTW for a while. WN subsequently left the IND DTW city pair- and they don't leave many city pairs

When TZ hemorrhaged from buying a new LEASED fleet, NW intuitively understood what was going to happen to TZ. (liquidation, as leaseholders repossessed their assets)

Rather than let OA's take this traffic, NW took advantage of the opportunity to add service, with underutilized assets like DC-9 30's and and RJ's. TZ was going down regardless of what NW did. TZ was in no position to cover it's capital costs.

NW's adds in IND were eventually done in by it's own BK. The whole operation was pulled down, with any marginal city pair being axed as a result of the BK filing. NW sent multiple AC back to lessors, and needed it's remaining assets to support core operations. Most of IND's added flights were not "core" operations. Higher fuel costs, and BK ended many of the IND Focus City city pairs.

For legacy carriers, the industry contracted in the late 2000's, as BK's and mergers preoccupied airline management, financiers, and planners. Exorbitant fuel prices put a stop on new flights and focus cities.

The DL/NW merger in caused an additional pause in expansion from IND (and elsewhere) as DL focused on it's balance sheet, and consolidation of its new route structure. Before that merger, DL's history included service to DTW at one time, with most most of it's lift running INDATL. They had extensive connecting flights to CVG when that hub was in operation in the 90's, until it's demise. In the post DL/NW merger world, IND is still in a great location- now between four hubs, offering omni-directional connecting opportunities. These opportunities enhance DL's ability to strike strong Corporate Contracts- contracts that build yields and the FF base. Which leads to higher inherent market share, and the opportunity for new city pairs.

A much stronger balance sheet, industry consolidation, and intelligent capacity constraint, have now put the three legacy carriers in a position to take advantage of traffic growth in cities like IND.

I believe there will be very SELECT growth from IND from DL. Think city pairs that have strong HIGH YIELD potential or significant connecting opportunities on one end or the other. IND SEA is/was a good example. The B717 and the CS100 are the right size planes for IND. They are sized to give DL an advantage at adding new cities. The delivery slow-down on the CS100 will impact new cities pairs from IND, delaying, I believe the addition of new NS cities.

Cheers!
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:05 pm

^^
*its
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:17 pm

beerbus wrote:
I was closely involved with NW sales for many years, starting in the Mid 80's in Indiana, before the NW/RC merger. (out of the industry now) It was an interesting time. Here's my recollection of what happened. This history partially explains what is happening today.

A much stronger balance sheet, industry consolidation, and intelligent capacity constraint, have now put the three legacy carriers in a position to take advantage of traffic growth in cities like IND.

I believe there will be very SELECT growth from IND from DL. Think city pairs that have strong HIGH YIELD potential or significant connecting opportunities on one end or the other. IND SEA is/was a good example. The B717 and the CS100 are the right size planes for IND. They are sized to give DL an advantage at adding new cities. The delivery slow-down on the CS100 will impact new cities pairs from IND, delaying, I believe the addition of new NS cities.

Cheers!


Interesting insight!

What would you consider "select" growth?

Thinking city pairs, I'd consider IND-BDL a HIGH YIELD route and maybe IND-AUS as well depending on if WN makes that daily, any other potential routes that would be considered high yielding. IND-BNA/MCI could provide significant connection opportunities, AUS/SAT and potential Florida routes could do the same.

Personally I think DL was planning on starting IND-SEA when the Cseries were delivered, but once the delay happened they just went for it.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:14 am

When does DL start taking delivery of the CSeries jets?
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:23 am

I think I found my own answer. It this information correct? They ordered 100 with an option for up to 100 more? Deliveries to start in 2020. That is still a long way off.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/delta-a ... oeing.html
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:33 pm

Indy wrote:
I think I found my own answer. It this information correct? They ordered 100 with an option for up to 100 more? Deliveries to start in 2020. That is still a long way off.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/delta-a ... oeing.html


That article is about the NEOs that delta ordered, not the Cseries.

Deliveries for the Cseries were supposed to start in spring of this year and revenue lights would begin by June/July, but are delayed because DL will not to pay tariffs. A ruling from the International Trade Commission should come out tomorrow though, so we will see what happens.

Either way though Delta will likely get the Cseries by at least 2019 even if Boeing wins the case, because of the deal Bombardier and Airbus struct.

The delay hurts IND, due to the fact that some of the IND-LGA/JFK flights would have likely gotten the Cseries this year. Plus, now that the Cseries is delayed Delta's fleet-wide upgauging strategy is partially on hold as well. Basically, Delta plans to use the C-Series on a number of routes currently operated by its 76-seat regional jets, which will, in turn, allow the 76-seaters to replace 50-seat jets. Plus, the C-Series would also free up some B717s in the process.

The C-series will be pretty important for places like CVG, IND, MCO, RDU, AUS, e.t.c. Routes like RDU-AUS, IND-SEA, IND-BOS will get upguaged, and possible new routes like IND-LAS, RDU-SAN, CVG-PHX, e.t.c could be added as well. So hopefully, this spat is settled soon...
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:42 pm

Ah that isn't the CSeries? That is what came up when I searched for it. Guess I need to find out more about that jet then. I really don't know any details about that jet.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:52 pm

Will WN ever add IND-MSP nonstop service? There are very few options to connect to MSP from IND on WN with WN only doing 2 daily nonstops in each direction between IND and MDW. In addition, there is actually still more O&D demand to MSP from IND than there is from CVG or CMH, even after F9 added CVG-MSP seasonal nonstop service. DL is also currently the only airline to serve MSP nonstop from IND. WN would also be able to connect passengers to BOS and EWR from MSP through IND if WN adds IND-MSP nonstop service.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:17 pm

Indy wrote:
Ah that isn't the CSeries? That is what came up when I searched for it. Guess I need to find out more about that jet then. I really don't know any details about that jet.


Basically it is the same size as the B717, but out performs it in almost every way. The Cseries has better fuel efficiency, lower maintenance cost, better range, larger windows, and a more comfortable cabin.

jplatts wrote:
Will WN ever add IND-MSP nonstop service? There are very few options to connect to MSP from IND on WN with WN only doing 2 daily nonstops in each direction between IND and MDW. In addition, there is actually still more O&D demand to MSP from IND than there is from CVG or CMH, even after F9 added CVG-MSP seasonal nonstop service. DL is also currently the only airline to serve MSP nonstop from IND. WN would also be able to connect passengers to BOS and EWR from MSP through IND if WN adds IND-MSP nonstop service.


It is one of the most likely adds WN will make from IND, along with SAT and BNA. MSP might be able to work with O&D, but those flights would likely be also timed to benefit from at least some amount of connecting feed, for MSP-IND-South/Northeast. The afternoon EWR flights do the same in providing EWR-IND-West connections, and vice versa.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:24 pm

Indy wrote:
Ah that isn't the CSeries? That is what came up when I searched for it. Guess I need to find out more about that jet then. I really don't know any details about that jet.

Heres a bit more info:

Starting in April of 2017, "Boeing Co asked the U.S. Commerce Department to investigate alleged subsidies and unfair pricing for Canadian planemaker Bombardier’s new CSeries airplane." Boeing stated that the CSeries, a 108 to 133 seat jet, competed with their B737 and due to the investment by the Quebec and federal governments of Canada complained that the order to DL was dumping prices in the market due to illegal subsidies. Boeing asked the Commerce Dep. to impose tariffs to bring the $20million/jet rumored price for DL up to the list price for the CSeries.

At the end of September, the US Commerce Department preniminarily ruled (and since held up) a 220% tariff on the aircraft if imported by an American airline, forcing DL to now to pay millions for the aircraft. This has frustrated both Canada, BBD, and DL, since the CSeries did not compete with any Boeing product.

In October, "Bombardier and Airbus said Monday that in August they rekindled failed talks dating several back years and that the European company planned to take a majority stake in a joint venture to market Bombardier’s CSeries jets." Airbus agreed to purchase a 31% stake in the CSeries program, and exchange Airbus gives BBD its pricing support in both selling aircraft and purchasing parts, as well as opening a new final assembly line next to Airbus' current A320 FAL in Mobile, AL, making a work-around to the tariff. Plans are already under way for the FAL to be constructed.

A few other related things have happened since, such as Boeing and Embraer having talks, Canadian and UK urging for a resolution “without the need for further legal proceedings," and even Bombardier trying to drag Embraer into the mix stating that the E190-E2 is now a direct competitor of the CSeries and thus the B737.

Final decision from the International Trade Commission will come on Thursday.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:46 pm

Official numbers are out for the airport

https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... tory-again
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... Report.pdf

Total Pax-8,770,308 only 3% growth, however that growth number is held down by Jan-May, from June-August and Oct-Dec enplanement growth was at around 6%...

AA and DL finished both finished barely under 2 million pax, both had 22.3% market share
AA-1,949,414
DL-1,948,932

WN finished barely under 3 million pax, 33.0%
WN-2,892,167

UA finished with over 1 million pax, 13.5%
G4 finished with 372,014 pax
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For 2018, 9 million should be pretty easy, I expect DL and AA to be over 2 million with WN likely over 3 million as well.
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From the press release

“Our West Coast growth has been in the works for several years, starting with San Francisco, and has been driven significantly by Indy’s tech sector growth,” said Marsha Stone, senior director of commercial enterprise. “Last year we saw those efforts really take off with the inaugural flight to Seattle via Alaska Airlines and the addition of new nonstop flights into Oakland and San Diego. Nonstop service to West Coast hubs is often cited as a critical factor for corporate relocation and expansion. According to Coldwell Banker Richard Ellis’ “Tech Thirty” report, Indianapolis ranks fourth among major metros in tech employment growth over the last few years."

"Rodriguez said the Indy airport’s growth is also a big vote of confidence from airlines – specific to the Indy market.
That confidence was demonstrated with emphasis last year when Delta Air Lines announced the first-ever, year-round nonstop transatlantic flight from Indy to Paris – a big win for Indiana as a whole with the potential for $50 million in annual economic impact"
DL DM, AA Gold 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....

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