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cvgComair
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:41 pm

jtwall wrote:
topguncnod wrote:
https://news.delta.com/delta-continues-expansion-most-popular-destinations-cincinnatinorthern-kentucky


Given that the press release is out, do you think that this is all DL may do at CVG in 2018? If I recall correctly, they only announced the SEA year-round change previously.

Per the quote, "With these additions, customers in Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky will have more choices to go to the top business and leisure destinations that are important to them, and we look forward to continuing this growth." It seems DL is looking towards more growth, wether that is this year is another matter. A 12% growth in seats is really big though, there is a lot of upgrading going on.
Next: PWM-LGA (Delta CRJ-900), LGA-CVG (Delta CRJ-900)
A319/320/332/333, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
topguncnod
Posts: 36
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:51 pm

The release mentions that now Delta serves the top 20 markets from CVG. Do we know what the next 10 most popular markets are? Where do MSY and JAX fit into this list?
 
jtwall
Posts: 30
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:19 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:06 pm

cvgComair wrote:
jtwall wrote:
topguncnod wrote:
https://news.delta.com/delta-continues-expansion-most-popular-destinations-cincinnatinorthern-kentucky


Given that the press release is out, do you think that this is all DL may do at CVG in 2018? If I recall correctly, they only announced the SEA year-round change previously.

Per the quote, "With these additions, customers in Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky will have more choices to go to the top business and leisure destinations that are important to them, and we look forward to continuing this growth." It seems DL is looking towards more growth, wether that is this year is another matter. A 12% growth in seats is really big though, there is a lot of upgrading going on.


I saw the quote too and it was definitely intentionally vague...so I was not sure what anyone else's take was. I'm definitely excited to see them growing seats YoY in double digits again. I think that SEA, PHX, and AUS are great adds. My (purely speculative) take is that's all the main adds CVG may get this year, but as long as DL is still doing well at CVG we will see more. Time will tell. I'm particularly interested to see how DL will fare competing with F9, WN, and G4 on the new routes.
 
ADrum23
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:10 pm

cvgComair wrote:
jtwall wrote:
topguncnod wrote:
https://news.delta.com/delta-continues-expansion-most-popular-destinations-cincinnatinorthern-kentucky


Given that the press release is out, do you think that this is all DL may do at CVG in 2018? If I recall correctly, they only announced the SEA year-round change previously.

Per the quote, "With these additions, customers in Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky will have more choices to go to the top business and leisure destinations that are important to them, and we look forward to continuing this growth." It seems DL is looking towards more growth, wether that is this year is another matter. A 12% growth in seats is really big though, there is a lot of upgrading going on.


I’m surprised they are only at 82 flights a day. Isn’t that a decline from last year? I was hoping to see that number go up into the 90-100 range.
 
jtwall
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:19 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
jtwall wrote:

Given that the press release is out, do you think that this is all DL may do at CVG in 2018? If I recall correctly, they only announced the SEA year-round change previously.

Per the quote, "With these additions, customers in Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky will have more choices to go to the top business and leisure destinations that are important to them, and we look forward to continuing this growth." It seems DL is looking towards more growth, wether that is this year is another matter. A 12% growth in seats is really big though, there is a lot of upgrading going on.


I’m surprised they are only at 82 flights a day. Isn’t that a decline from last year? I was hoping to see that number go up into the 90-100 range.


I believe the peak last year was high 70s but I may be wrong there. They seemed to start a lot of the upgauging last summer, and consequently some routes had a frequency trimmed. I think we're seeing more mainline and some of those frequencies come back.
 
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cvgComair
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:26 pm

Here are the top 30 by PDEW, if you separate out the New York airports, they are serving the top 20:
1 New York City, NY (Metropolitan Area)
2 Los Angeles, CA (Metropolitan Area)
3 Las Vegas, NV
4 Orlando, FL
5 Washington, DC (Metropolitan Area)
6 Miami, FL (Metropolitan Area)
7 Tampa, FL (Metropolitan Area)
8 Denver, CO
9 Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
10 San Francisco, CA (Metropolitan Area)
11 Phoenix, AZ
12 Philadelphia, PA
13 Houston, TX
14 Fort Myers, FL
15 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN
16 Sanford, FL
17 Punta Gorda, FL
18 Seattle, WA
19 San Diego, CA
20 New Orleans, LA
21 Valparaiso, FL
22 Jacksonville, FL
23 Portland, OR
24 Raleigh/Durham, NC
25 Salt Lake City, UT
26 Savannah, GA
27 Hartford, CT
28 Kansas City, MO
29 Myrtle Beach, SC
30 San Antonio, TX
Next: PWM-LGA (Delta CRJ-900), LGA-CVG (Delta CRJ-900)
A319/320/332/333, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
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Cvgspotter15
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:26 pm

cvgComair wrote:
Here are the top 30 by PDEW, if you separate out the New York airports, they are serving the top 20:
1 New York City, NY (Metropolitan Area)
2 Los Angeles, CA (Metropolitan Area)
3 Las Vegas, NV
4 Orlando, FL
5 Washington, DC (Metropolitan Area)
6 Miami, FL (Metropolitan Area)
7 Tampa, FL (Metropolitan Area)
8 Denver, CO
9 Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
10 San Francisco, CA (Metropolitan Area)
11 Phoenix, AZ
12 Philadelphia, PA
13 Houston, TX
14 Fort Myers, FL
15 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN
16 Sanford, FL
17 Punta Gorda, FL
18 Seattle, WA
19 San Diego, CA
20 New Orleans, LA
21 Valparaiso, FL
22 Jacksonville, FL
23 Portland, OR
24 Raleigh/Durham, NC
25 Salt Lake City, UT
26 Savannah, GA
27 Hartford, CT
28 Kansas City, MO
29 Myrtle Beach, SC
30 San Antonio, TX

not new orleans
 
msycajun
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:37 pm

MSY and JAX seem like logical next adds - DL has a strong FF bases and they are doable with a CR7/9 or 717. Could very well see MSY in spring 2019.
 
jplatts
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:51 pm

cvgComair wrote:
Here are the top 30 by PDEW, if you separate out the New York airports, they are serving the top 20:
4 Orlando, FL
16 Sanford, FL
14 Fort Myers, FL
17 Punta Gorda, FL


Orlando, FL and Sanford, FL are both in the Orlando Metropolitan Statistical Area, and both Orlando Sanford International Airport and Allegiant Air market SFB as a secondary commercial airport for leisure travel to the Orlando area.

Even though RSW and PGD are located in separate metropolitan areas (at least under the US Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Area and Combined Statistical Area definitions), the city of Fort Myers is located in-between RSW and PGD and Allegiant Air markets PGD as an secondary commercial airport for leisure travel to the Fort Myers area.

Could you please list the next top two markets by PDEW after SAT, given that MCO and SFB are both clearly in the same market and given that the Ft. Myers area is served by both RSW and PGD?
 
WWads
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:15 pm

msycajun wrote:
MSY and JAX seem like logical next adds - DL has a strong FF bases and they are doable with a CR7/9 or 717. Could very well see MSY in spring 2019.


I'm annoyed that we haven't seen MSY this year. A CRJ7 could absolutely work on that route. It was a pretty good O/D route IIRC, and only got axed due to the GoJet pilot shortage. Now that more DL regional operators have CRJ7s, they should be able to make something work.
 
jtwall
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:16 pm

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Here are the top 30 by PDEW, if you separate out the New York airports, they are serving the top 20:
1 New York City, NY (Metropolitan Area)
2 Los Angeles, CA (Metropolitan Area)
3 Las Vegas, NV
4 Orlando, FL
5 Washington, DC (Metropolitan Area)
6 Miami, FL (Metropolitan Area)
7 Tampa, FL (Metropolitan Area)
8 Denver, CO
9 Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
10 San Francisco, CA (Metropolitan Area)
11 Phoenix, AZ
12 Philadelphia, PA
13 Houston, TX
14 Fort Myers, FL
15 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN
16 Sanford, FL
17 Punta Gorda, FL
18 Seattle, WA
19 San Diego, CA
20 New Orleans, LA
21 Valparaiso, FL
22 Jacksonville, FL
23 Portland, OR
24 Raleigh/Durham, NC
25 Salt Lake City, UT
26 Savannah, GA
27 Hartford, CT
28 Kansas City, MO
29 Myrtle Beach, SC
30 San Antonio, TX

not new orleans


No SAN either
 
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cvgComair
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:43 pm

jtwall wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Here are the top 30 by PDEW, if you separate out the New York airports, they are serving the top 20:
1 New York City, NY (Metropolitan Area)
2 Los Angeles, CA (Metropolitan Area)
3 Las Vegas, NV
4 Orlando, FL
5 Washington, DC (Metropolitan Area)
6 Miami, FL (Metropolitan Area)
7 Tampa, FL (Metropolitan Area)
8 Denver, CO
9 Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
10 San Francisco, CA (Metropolitan Area)
11 Phoenix, AZ
12 Philadelphia, PA
13 Houston, TX
14 Fort Myers, FL
15 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN
16 Sanford, FL
17 Punta Gorda, FL
18 Seattle, WA
19 San Diego, CA
20 New Orleans, LA
21 Valparaiso, FL
22 Jacksonville, FL
23 Portland, OR
24 Raleigh/Durham, NC
25 Salt Lake City, UT
26 Savannah, GA
27 Hartford, CT
28 Kansas City, MO
29 Myrtle Beach, SC
30 San Antonio, TX

not new orleans


No SAN either

I think they are "cheating" it by counting each NY and/or DC airport as separate markets. Regardless, I think SAN/MSY/JAX seem like the clear next choices. I am betting JAX/MSY in Spring 2019 and SAN in Summer 2019.
Next: PWM-LGA (Delta CRJ-900), LGA-CVG (Delta CRJ-900)
A319/320/332/333, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
ADrum23
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:11 pm

Welp, here it is. This is the first news outlet (that I have heard of) that has labeled CVG a DL "focus city", rather than "hub" .

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2018/02/05/delta-announces-new-routes-cincinnati-focus-city/307779002/

Hopefully, DL will come to their senses and continue to grow CVG back into a smallish hub again.
 
ADrum23
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:30 pm

WWads wrote:
msycajun wrote:
MSY and JAX seem like logical next adds - DL has a strong FF bases and they are doable with a CR7/9 or 717. Could very well see MSY in spring 2019.


I'm annoyed that we haven't seen MSY this year. A CRJ7 could absolutely work on that route. It was a pretty good O/D route IIRC, and only got axed due to the GoJet pilot shortage. Now that more DL regional operators have CRJ7s, they should be able to make something work.


I agree. I believe G4 is the only carrier that serves CVG-MSY. What gives?
 
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cvgComair
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:35 pm

jtwall wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Per the quote, "With these additions, customers in Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky will have more choices to go to the top business and leisure destinations that are important to them, and we look forward to continuing this growth." It seems DL is looking towards more growth, wether that is this year is another matter. A 12% growth in seats is really big though, there is a lot of upgrading going on.


I’m surprised they are only at 82 flights a day. Isn’t that a decline from last year? I was hoping to see that number go up into the 90-100 range.


I believe the peak last year was high 70s but I may be wrong there. They seemed to start a lot of the upgauging last summer, and consequently some routes had a frequency trimmed. I think we're seeing more mainline and some of those frequencies come back.

2016 was 89 in the summer and slashed to high 70's in the fall. The 2017 summer peaked at 82 daily flights, which is the same DL is offering next year. Saturday and Sunday will have significantly more departures this year compared to next year.
Next: PWM-LGA (Delta CRJ-900), LGA-CVG (Delta CRJ-900)
A319/320/332/333, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
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cvgComair
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:15 am

The pax gain next year is going to be pretty crazy, here is the YOY % seat gain scheduled so far:
WN: 43% (only operated 7 out of 12 months, +PHX increase for 1 month, any adds will increase this %)
G4: +28%
DL: +12%
UA/F9: <5% increase
AC/AA: no change

That equates to right under 9 million pax at a 15% increase. This excludes WOW and charters, which should push pax over 9 million. Of those 9 million, 4.2 million will be on DL alone, for a market share of 47%.

These numbers do not include any potential new routes or carriers this year. I expect both G4 and WN to add more service, plus DL/F9 could throw in some more increases before the end of the year. 2018 is already shaping up to be a better year than 2017!
Next: PWM-LGA (Delta CRJ-900), LGA-CVG (Delta CRJ-900)
A319/320/332/333, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
ADrum23
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:39 am

cvgComair wrote:
The pax gain next year is going to be pretty crazy, here is the YOY % seat gain scheduled so far:
WN: 43% (only operated 7 out of 12 months, +PHX increase for 1 month, any adds will increase this %)
G4: +28%
DL: +12%
UA/F9: <5% increase
AC/AA: no change

That equates to right under 9 million pax at a 15% increase. This excludes WOW and charters, which should push pax over 9 million. Of those 9 million, 4.2 million will be on DL alone, for a market share of 47%.

These numbers do not include any potential new routes or carriers this year. I expect both G4 and WN to add more service, plus DL/F9 could throw in some more increases before the end of the year. 2018 is already shaping up to be a better year than 2017!


So there is a distinct possibility the airport could reach its 9,000,000 pax by 2021 goal 3 years early? Nice! I hope it gets back to 10,000,000+ soon, though I wonder how long it will climb before slowing down.
 
CVGDTWfan
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:36 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Welp, here it is. This is the first news outlet (that I have heard of) that has labeled CVG a DL "focus city", rather than "hub" .

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2018/02/05/delta-announces-new-routes-cincinnati-focus-city/307779002/

Hopefully, DL will come to their senses and continue to grow CVG back into a smallish hub again.


According to DL's route map, CVG is still listed a hub, and BOS is listed a hub as well. Interestingly enough, the only debated city as to being a hub/focus city that isn't listed as a hub is RDU.

http://dl.fltmaps.com/en

I think that the investor day slide that has CVG, BOS, and RDU listed as focus cities doesn't hold too much merit tbh. An intern could've made that simple of a map. In fact, I made similar slides for one of my business classes at college when I chose to do a company overview on DL :lol:
 
Jshank83
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Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:55 am

CVGDTWfan wrote:
I think that the investor day slide that has CVG, BOS, and RDU listed as focus cities doesn't hold too much merit tbh. An intern could've made that simple of a map. In fact, I made similar slides for one of my business classes at college when I chose to do a company overview on DL :lol:


So you don't think someone would proof read the slides for an investor meeting and make sure everything was correct? Wouldn't the investors of all people want to know the correct info?

Either way hub or focus city, it doesn't matter. It's been debated on here many times what CVG is. The amount of flights it has, is the amount of flights it has. That is what matters more than whatever label it has. It's growing so I am sure that makes CVG regulars happy.
 
flyguy89
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Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:59 am

CVGDTWfan wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Welp, here it is. This is the first news outlet (that I have heard of) that has labeled CVG a DL "focus city", rather than "hub" .

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2018/02/05/delta-announces-new-routes-cincinnati-focus-city/307779002/

Hopefully, DL will come to their senses and continue to grow CVG back into a smallish hub again.


According to DL's route map, CVG is still listed a hub, and BOS is listed a hub as well. Interestingly enough, the only debated city as to being a hub/focus city that isn't listed as a hub is RDU.

http://dl.fltmaps.com/en

I think that the investor day slide that has CVG, BOS, and RDU listed as focus cities doesn't hold too much merit tbh. An intern could've made that simple of a map. In fact, I made similar slides for one of my business classes at college when I chose to do a company overview on DL :lol:

That's pretty material information, a mistake like that definitely wouldn't get by on something as important as a presentation to investors. The issue with the route map is DL likely doesn't yet have a way to visually depict a distinction between a regular station vs. focus city vs. hub, so by default the route map program is giving focus cities the same visual treatment as a hub. I love CVG, but I think DL has now made it pretty clear that it's no longer a hub in the way they used to spin it.

CVG-PHX is definitely a preemptive move to head off WN from getting comfortable on the route. WN is pretty boxed in at this point now, I can't really see many places they could add. CVG-DAL and CVG-BOS maybe? Probably a good chance they could run F9 off their seasonal CVG-LAX. Other than that there isn't much left for them, they were pretty late to the party unfortunately.

The recent service additions by DL are very welcomed, especially upgrading CVG-SEA back to year-round service. Seasonal CVG-SAN is probably the next most likely candidate to return...maybe summer service to PDX as well.
 
ADrum23
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:46 am

flyguy89 wrote:
CVGDTWfan wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Welp, here it is. This is the first news outlet (that I have heard of) that has labeled CVG a DL "focus city", rather than "hub" .

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2018/02/05/delta-announces-new-routes-cincinnati-focus-city/307779002/

Hopefully, DL will come to their senses and continue to grow CVG back into a smallish hub again.


According to DL's route map, CVG is still listed a hub, and BOS is listed a hub as well. Interestingly enough, the only debated city as to being a hub/focus city that isn't listed as a hub is RDU.

http://dl.fltmaps.com/en

I think that the investor day slide that has CVG, BOS, and RDU listed as focus cities doesn't hold too much merit tbh. An intern could've made that simple of a map. In fact, I made similar slides for one of my business classes at college when I chose to do a company overview on DL :lol:

That's pretty material information, a mistake like that definitely wouldn't get by on something as important as a presentation to investors. The issue with the route map is DL likely doesn't yet have a way to visually depict a distinction between a regular station vs. focus city vs. hub, so by default the route map program is giving focus cities the same visual treatment as a hub. I love CVG, but I think DL has now made it pretty clear that it's no longer a hub in the way they used to spin it.

CVG-PHX is definitely a preemptive move to head off WN from getting comfortable on the route. WN is pretty boxed in at this point now, I can't really see many places they could add. CVG-DAL and CVG-BOS maybe? Probably a good chance they could run F9 off their seasonal CVG-LAX. Other than that there isn't much left for them, they were pretty late to the party unfortunately.

The recent service additions by DL are very welcomed, especially upgrading CVG-SEA back to year-round service. Seasonal CVG-SAN is probably the next most likely candidate to return...maybe summer service to PDX as well.


This. As much as I hate to say it, CVG isn't really a hub anymore. The investor presentation is the most defininative thing they have IMO because why would they lie to investors over something like that? Delta's website contains inaccurate information as well on other things, so maybe they change it when they update their website (overdue IMO).

Nonetheless, I welcome the new service additions and I hope they come to their senses at some point and utilize their asset at CVG and make it a small reliever hub again.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 2702
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:57 am

CVGDTWfan wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Welp, here it is. This is the first news outlet (that I have heard of) that has labeled CVG a DL "focus city", rather than "hub" .

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2018/02/05/delta-announces-new-routes-cincinnati-focus-city/307779002/

Hopefully, DL will come to their senses and continue to grow CVG back into a smallish hub again.


According to DL's route map, CVG is still listed a hub, and BOS is listed a hub as well. Interestingly enough, the only debated city as to being a hub/focus city that isn't listed as a hub is RDU.

http://dl.fltmaps.com/en

I think that the investor day slide that has CVG, BOS, and RDU listed as focus cities doesn't hold too much merit tbh. An intern could've made that simple of a map. In fact, I made similar slides for one of my business classes at college when I chose to do a company overview on DL :lol:


Regardless of the whole Focus City/Hub stuff, as I and others have shared before, the DL website is woefully out-of-date. The interactive route map isn't up to date, you can tell because it doesn't list LHR as a hub, the regular route maps on their website show routes that were discountinued 2+ years ago, even the airports page still lists MEM...
DL DM, AA Gold 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
jplatts
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:50 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
CVG-PHX is definitely a preemptive move to head off WN from getting comfortable on the route. WN is pretty boxed in at this point now, I can't really see many places they could add. CVG-DAL and CVG-BOS maybe? Probably a good chance they could run F9 off their seasonal CVG-LAX. Other than that there isn't much left for them, they were pretty late to the party unfortunately.


WN could add CVG-TPA nonstop service since there is an average of over 387 passengers per day who travel between CVG and TPA in Q2 2017, since DL will only be doing 1 daily nonstop between CVG and TPA on a 717 in Summer 2018, since F9 will be only doing CVG-TPA nonstop service 4 days a week, and since the demand for CVG-TPA exceeds the number of seats available on the DL CVG-TPA nonstops. WN would also be able to connect passengers from CVG to FLL through TPA if it adds CVG-TPA nonstop service.

There is enough demand for WN nonstop service to TPA from CVG with DL only doing 1 daily nonstop in each direction between CVG and TPA, with F9 doing CVG-TPA nonstop service on a less-than-daily basis, and with WN's ability to connect passengers to FLL through TPA.
 
jph7291
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:19 pm

jplatts, just some constructive criticism. I suggest reading your posts aloud before submitting them. Run-on sentences with repetitive information are headaches to read and sift through. I apologize for being rude! You have great information in your posts, it just would be more enjoyable to read them if they were more succinct.
712, 732/5/G/8, 752, 772/W, 319/20, M82/8, M90, CR2/7/9, E45, E70/5, AT7, DH4/8
ACK, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLE, CVG, DAY, DTW, EWR, FLL, HOU, HSV, HNL, IAH, IND, MCO, MDW, MRS, NCE, ORD, ORY, PHL, RNS, YYZ
AA, AC, AF, CO, DL, FL, G4, UA, WN
 
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cvgComair
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:27 pm

I will be curious to see if F9 adds anything for the summer. There have been hints of new F9 routes on other forums.

They decided against starting CVG-SEA "due to airplane shortages" but I have a feeling DL's increases on the route was the real reason. Last year they did a large increase in frequency to CVG's summer schedule in a Feb and March announcement. I would expect something similar this year, especially now that they are starting to cut the more unprofitable routes.
Next: PWM-LGA (Delta CRJ-900), LGA-CVG (Delta CRJ-900)
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SumChristianus
Posts: 515
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:36 pm

DEN, MCO, LAS, and maybe DAL or HOU seem most likely for WN out of CVG. I doubt they will try to provoke DL on ATL or LGA so adding routes to positions of WN strength would probably be the less risky move. LAX or OAK I don't see coming for at least a while.
WN's much larger operation at CMH has only OAK on the West Coast, IND-OAK is only starting this year, and IND-LAX only started when WN had 30+ daily departures out of IND. If CVG-West Coast was unserved or barely served, it would be more likely, but at WN's current scale there seem to be several much larger destinations they will serve first.
With large DL/F9/G4 operations at CVG, I don't think CVG will ever be larger than IND for WN, but they could be up to 6-7 destinations with 15 daily flights by 2020.
I wonder how much WN and the ULCCs at CVG are attracting passengers from IND/SDF/DAY/CMH etc. I know IND used to get a lot of CVG leakage but anecdotally, even as IND has grown it seems to have reversed, I've heard a lot more about people recently from the IND area driving to CVG for (primarily G4) cheaper flights.
Is CVG expansion a threat to IND, SDF, CMH, and DAY, or is there enough growth in demand to maintain service growth at each? (I think DAY is threatened the most, but maybe could look toward a new carrier, SY, etc. that's not at any of the surrounding airports.
F9 will probably add several new routes while dropping a few. I don't believe SJC will last, for one.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-DEN UA CR7
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jplatts
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:55 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
F9 will probably add several new routes while dropping a few. I don't believe SJC will last, for one.


WN could add CVG-OAK nonstop service if F9 drops CVG-SJC nonstop service. WN's operation in the San Francisco Bay Area is almost as big as WN's MDW operation, but WN's operation in the San Francisco Bay Area is split between its OAK focus city, its SJC focus city, and a smaller WN station at SFO. OAK is also much closer to Downtown San Francisco than SJC is.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:04 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
DEN, MCO, LAS, and maybe DAL or HOU seem most likely for WN out of CVG. I doubt they will try to provoke DL on ATL or LGA so adding routes to positions of WN strength would probably be the less risky move. LAX or OAK I don't see coming for at least a while.
WN's much larger operation at CMH has only OAK on the West Coast, IND-OAK is only starting this year, and IND-LAX only started when WN had 30+ daily departures out of IND. If CVG-West Coast was unserved or barely served, it would be more likely, but at WN's current scale there seem to be several much larger destinations they will serve first.
With large DL/F9/G4 operations at CVG, I don't think CVG will ever be larger than IND for WN, but they could be up to 6-7 destinations with 15 daily flights by 2020.
I wonder how much WN and the ULCCs at CVG are attracting passengers from IND/SDF/DAY/CMH etc. I know IND used to get a lot of CVG leakage but anecdotally, even as IND has grown it seems to have reversed, I've heard a lot more about people recently from the IND area driving to CVG for (primarily G4) cheaper flights.
Is CVG expansion a threat to IND, SDF, CMH, and DAY, or is there enough growth in demand to maintain service growth at each? (I think DAY is threatened the most, but maybe could look toward a new carrier, SY, etc. that's not at any of the surrounding airports.
F9 will probably add several new routes while dropping a few. I don't believe SJC will last, for one.


The problem for WN is nearly every route they could serve already has 2-3 airlines on it. I'd agree with them setting up shop with BWI/MDW/PHX/DEN/MCO/LAS in the first few years and seeing how things play out. Had they beaten F9 and/or G4 to the punch, they might've had more room to grow. LGA won't happen because of slots; they want to start CMH-LGA but can't for that reason. For as big a station as it is, CMH only has seasonal HOU service.

I don't know anything about IND or SDF, but I would think CMH is far enough away and large enough to not be affected by CVG as much. Look at what NK's doing out of the gate, with both 7 destinations and a marketing blitz unlike anything else I can remember seeing in Columbus. Skybus had billboards, TV spots, and gas station pump inserts as far away as Dayton and was the last to really go that big until NK.

DAY is a different story- they've already lost F9 and WN to the greener pastures of CVG, though they've also gained G4 in that time in spite of them being big at CVG. DAY is getting IAH back on UA, though. I still think there's an opportunity there as DAY's both an easier airport in and out but also has the advantage of skipping Cincinnati traffic, especially the further toward Dayton you live. I think growth there will be from G4 and I still think NK is the best chance at a new carrier. I've started to wonder, though, if F9 might not come back with a route or two.
Last edited by DeltaRules on Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Jshank83
Posts: 1739
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:09 pm

jplatts wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
CVG-PHX is definitely a preemptive move to head off WN from getting comfortable on the route. WN is pretty boxed in at this point now, I can't really see many places they could add. CVG-DAL and CVG-BOS maybe? Probably a good chance they could run F9 off their seasonal CVG-LAX. Other than that there isn't much left for them, they were pretty late to the party unfortunately.


WN could add CVG-TPA nonstop service since there is an average of over 387 passengers per day who travel between CVG and TPA in Q2 2017, since DL will only be doing 1 daily nonstop between CVG and TPA on a 717 in Summer 2018, since F9 will be only doing CVG-TPA nonstop service 4 days a week, and since the demand for CVG-TPA exceeds the number of seats available on the DL CVG-TPA nonstops. WN would also be able to connect passengers from CVG to FLL through TPA if it adds CVG-TPA nonstop service.

There is enough demand for WN nonstop service to TPA from CVG with DL only doing 1 daily nonstop in each direction between CVG and TPA, with F9 doing CVG-TPA nonstop service on a less-than-daily basis, and with WN's ability to connect passengers to FLL through TPA.


G4 run 8x weekly to PIE which serves the same metro area so that needs factored in as well.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:12 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Is CVG expansion a threat to IND, SDF, CMH, and DAY, or is there enough growth in demand to maintain service growth at each? (I think DAY is threatened the most, but maybe could look toward a new carrier, SY, etc. that's not at any of the surrounding airports.
F9 will probably add several new routes while dropping a few. I don't believe SJC will last, for one.
IND, no. SDF, maybe. CMH, no. DAY, yes (although I think most of the damage has already been done). JMO.
 
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cvgComair
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:47 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Is CVG expansion a threat to IND, SDF, CMH, and DAY, or is there enough growth in demand to maintain service growth at each? (I think DAY is threatened the most, but maybe could look toward a new carrier, SY, etc. that's not at any of the surrounding airports.
F9 will probably add several new routes while dropping a few. I don't believe SJC will last, for one.
IND, no. SDF, maybe. CMH, no. DAY, yes (although I think most of the damage has already been done). JMO.

The leakage to CVG right now is mostly LEX/DAY. There was and is still come from IND/CMH/SDF to CVG for G4/F9, but the reverse still happens with WN, so it cancels out.
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Cvgspotter15
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:46 pm

jph7291 wrote:
jplatts, just some constructive criticism. I suggest reading your posts aloud before submitting them. Run-on sentences with repetitive information are headaches to read and sift through. I apologize for being rude! You have great information in your posts, it just would be more enjoyable to read them if they were more succinct.


We are pretty sure he is a bot
 
CVGDTWfan
Posts: 22
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:46 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
CVGDTWfan wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Welp, here it is. This is the first news outlet (that I have heard of) that has labeled CVG a DL "focus city", rather than "hub" .

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2018/02/05/delta-announces-new-routes-cincinnati-focus-city/307779002/

Hopefully, DL will come to their senses and continue to grow CVG back into a smallish hub again.


According to DL's route map, CVG is still listed a hub, and BOS is listed a hub as well. Interestingly enough, the only debated city as to being a hub/focus city that isn't listed as a hub is RDU.

http://dl.fltmaps.com/en

I think that the investor day slide that has CVG, BOS, and RDU listed as focus cities doesn't hold too much merit tbh. An intern could've made that simple of a map. In fact, I made similar slides for one of my business classes at college when I chose to do a company overview on DL :lol:


Regardless of the whole Focus City/Hub stuff, as I and others have shared before, the DL website is woefully out-of-date. The interactive route map isn't up to date, you can tell because it doesn't list LHR as a hub, the regular route maps on their website show routes that were discountinued 2+ years ago, even the airports page still lists MEM...


My apologies then, as I missed that LHR isn't listed as a hub on the interactive route map and wasn't aware it was so out of date. While checking Twitter today I also saw that DL's CVG Station Manager basically acknowledged that it's a focus city as well. That pretty much closes the debate.
 
Springs1816
Posts: 24
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:59 pm

cvgComair wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Is CVG expansion a threat to IND, SDF, CMH, and DAY, or is there enough growth in demand to maintain service growth at each? (I think DAY is threatened the most, but maybe could look toward a new carrier, SY, etc. that's not at any of the surrounding airports.
F9 will probably add several new routes while dropping a few. I don't believe SJC will last, for one.
IND, no. SDF, maybe. CMH, no. DAY, yes (although I think most of the damage has already been done). JMO.

The leakage to CVG right now is mostly LEX/DAY. There was and is still come from IND/CMH/SDF to CVG for G4/F9, but the reverse still happens with WN, so it cancels out.


Hello everyone. I'm new here to a.net. My first post. Just so everyone knows I from LEX. That being said I agree with the leakage to CVG. My three leisure trips last year were all from CVG. LEX is very limited and expensive. SDF used to be reasonable but for whatever reason is not anymore. Even WN. I would guess Louisville still leaks to CVG especially for the west coast destinations. That's all I got. Look forward to contributing more in the future.
 
Texraid
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:13 pm

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Work began today on expanding the parking garage and moving the entrance area. The road realignment will start in June. http://www.fox19.com/story/37401382/wor ... r-facility


What will become of the Terminal 1 garage? And why aren't they just demolishing the whole Terminal 2 garage and expanding the Terminal 3 garage slightly to replace it? Are both garages well-used?

They are basically demolishing a cut-through of Garage 2, making one big garage, which should be enough spaces for now, while Garage 1 will be kept for overflow. The garages rarely get full, but it is expensive to remove parts of them and they are using them as overflow for long-term, which frequently is at full capacity. I am sure they are trying to save money, with all the terminal renovations, long term parking expansion, rental car relocation, and runway 9/27 widening, they are spending quite a bit of money. (Direct link if the image stops working: https://photos.app.goo.gl/1yw2wXKzCFJjQ6Xq2)
Image


Something I haven’t seen mentioned here regarding parking; the employee lot is going to be divided this spring to handle overflow from the long term lots. In addition, monthly employee parking in the old T1 garage is being eliminated.
 
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cvgComair
Posts: 1802
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:25 pm

Springs1816 wrote:
Texraid wrote:

Welcome! It is always great to get new inputs!

Texraid wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
What will become of the Terminal 1 garage? And why aren't they just demolishing the whole Terminal 2 garage and expanding the Terminal 3 garage slightly to replace it? Are both garages well-used?

They are basically demolishing a cut-through of Garage 2, making one big garage, which should be enough spaces for now, while Garage 1 will be kept for overflow. The garages rarely get full, but it is expensive to remove parts of them and they are using them as overflow for long-term, which frequently is at full capacity. I am sure they are trying to save money, with all the terminal renovations, long term parking expansion, rental car relocation, and runway 9/27 widening, they are spending quite a bit of money. (Direct link if the image stops working: https://photos.app.goo.gl/1yw2wXKzCFJjQ6Xq2)
Image

Something I haven’t seen mentioned here regarding parking; the employee lot is going to be divided this spring to handle overflow from the long term lots. In addition, monthly employee parking in the old T1 garage is being eliminated.

That was mentioned a little while ago, but it got buried under other discussion, thats for bringing it back! Interesting that Garage 1 is getting closed off to employee parking, probably has to do with the road realignment which will begin in June. I am kind of skeptical about the new parking lot, although it is needed, the shuttle service to the long-term lot can be a disaster, I cannot imagine a lot with even less frequent service. Recently I have been paying extra to use short term over long term, the shuttle service has become noticeably poorer. They really need to add more shuttles to keep up with passenger growth.
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Jshank83
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:48 pm

CVGDTWfan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Regardless of the whole Focus City/Hub stuff, as I and others have shared before, the DL website is woefully out-of-date. The interactive route map isn't up to date, you can tell because it doesn't list LHR as a hub, the regular route maps on their website show routes that were discountinued 2+ years ago, even the airports page still lists MEM...


My apologies then, as I missed that LHR isn't listed as a hub on the interactive route map and wasn't aware it was so out of date. While checking Twitter today I also saw that DL's CVG Station Manager basically acknowledged that it's a focus city as well. That pretty much closes the debate.


LHR isn't a hub for DL is it? So why would it be listed as a hub? Or am I missing something here.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:10 pm

The big announcement at AUS was the SkyClub. No hub, no focus city, at least for today.

Jshank83 wrote:
CVGDTWfan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Regardless of the whole Focus City/Hub stuff, as I and others have shared before, the DL website is woefully out-of-date. The interactive route map isn't up to date, you can tell because it doesn't list LHR as a hub, the regular route maps on their website show routes that were discountinued 2+ years ago, even the airports page still lists MEM...


My apologies then, as I missed that LHR isn't listed as a hub on the interactive route map and wasn't aware it was so out of date. While checking Twitter today I also saw that DL's CVG Station Manager basically acknowledged that it's a focus city as well. That pretty much closes the debate.


LHR isn't a hub for DL is it? So why would it be listed as a hub? Or am I missing something here.


Probably has to do something with the alliance with VS.
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jplatts
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:11 pm

Springs1816 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
IND, no. SDF, maybe. CMH, no. DAY, yes (although I think most of the damage has already been done). JMO.

The leakage to CVG right now is mostly LEX/DAY. There was and is still come from IND/CMH/SDF to CVG for G4/F9, but the reverse still happens with WN, so it cancels out.


Hello everyone. I'm new here to a.net. My first post. Just so everyone knows I from LEX. That being said I agree with the leakage to CVG. My three leisure trips last year were all from CVG. LEX is very limited and expensive. SDF used to be reasonable but for whatever reason is not anymore. Even WN. I would guess Louisville still leaks to CVG especially for the west coast destinations. That's all I got. Look forward to contributing more in the future.


SDF used to be a bigger WN station 5 years ago than it is today, and WN used to do 19 daily departures at SDF 5 years ago compared to 14 daily departures at SDF today.

I thought that WN could possibly serve DAL nonstop from SDF if WN wasn't at CVG, but there is much more O&D demand to DFW/DAL from CVG than there is from SDF. The demand for SDF-DFW/DAL has also decreased with DL discontinuing DFW-SDF nonstop service 14 years ago, with WN discontinuing SDF-STL nonstop service 5 years ago, with F9 adding DFW-CVG nonstop service, and with AA and DL lowering fares on DFW-CVG nonstop flights.

WN does have opportunities to add nonstop service to additional destinations from SDF, but WN does now have to worry about leakage to SDF from the Cincinnati metropolitan area if it adds nonstop service to additional destinations from SDF but not from CVG. The O&D demand is also usually much greater to many destinations from CVG than is the case from SDF.

Will Southwest further expand at SDF, or will CVG become a bigger WN station than SDF?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:55 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
CVGDTWfan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Regardless of the whole Focus City/Hub stuff, as I and others have shared before, the DL website is woefully out-of-date. The interactive route map isn't up to date, you can tell because it doesn't list LHR as a hub, the regular route maps on their website show routes that were discountinued 2+ years ago, even the airports page still lists MEM...


My apologies then, as I missed that LHR isn't listed as a hub on the interactive route map and wasn't aware it was so out of date. While checking Twitter today I also saw that DL's CVG Station Manager basically acknowledged that it's a focus city as well. That pretty much closes the debate.


LHR isn't a hub for DL is it? So why would it be listed as a hub? Or am I missing something here.


http://news.delta.com/london-heathrow-airport

AMS, CDG, and LHR are all "hubs" for DL
DL DM, AA Gold 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
Jshank83
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:13 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
CVGDTWfan wrote:

My apologies then, as I missed that LHR isn't listed as a hub on the interactive route map and wasn't aware it was so out of date. While checking Twitter today I also saw that DL's CVG Station Manager basically acknowledged that it's a focus city as well. That pretty much closes the debate.


LHR isn't a hub for DL is it? So why would it be listed as a hub? Or am I missing something here.


http://news.delta.com/london-heathrow-airport

AMS, CDG, and LHR are all "hubs" for DL


Interesting. I thought it was just CDG and AMS. thanks.
 
Briancw
Posts: 60
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:54 am

jph7291 wrote:
jplatts, just some constructive criticism. I suggest reading your posts aloud before submitting them. Run-on sentences with repetitive information are headaches to read and sift through. I apologize for being rude! You have great information in your posts, it just would be more enjoyable to read them if they were more succinct.


jplatts is a chatbot...a computer program. It's not an actual person. Its posts will always read like that with odd/awkward wording, repetitive information, and the like. It's quite annoying.
 
jbmitt
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2002 3:59 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:09 am

Briancw wrote:
jph7291 wrote:
jplatts, just some constructive criticism. I suggest reading your posts aloud before submitting them. Run-on sentences with repetitive information are headaches to read and sift through. I apologize for being rude! You have great information in your posts, it just would be more enjoyable to read them if they were more succinct.


jplatts is a chatbot...a computer program. It's not an actual person. Its posts will always read like that with odd/awkward wording, repetitive information, and the like. It's quite annoying.


Every so often there seems to be a tidbit that makes me think that it is not a bot account. It is interesting how all of these sort of comments about him go unanswered. I wish there was a way to just have him deleted from the site. I usually have the posts ignored, but I see most of the posts quoted.
 
WWads
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:13 am

We need to flood the mods with complaints and hope they do something.
 
jph7291
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:45 am

No chatbot could remember a Frontier billboard on the Norwood Lateral.
712, 732/5/G/8, 752, 772/W, 319/20, M82/8, M90, CR2/7/9, E45, E70/5, AT7, DH4/8
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AA, AC, AF, CO, DL, FL, G4, UA, WN
 
GSM605
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:14 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
The problem for WN is nearly every route they could serve already has 2-3 airlines on it. I'd agree with them setting up shop with BWI/MDW/PHX/DEN/MCO/LAS in the first few years and seeing how things play out. Had they beaten F9 and/or G4 to the punch, they might've had more room to grow. LGA won't happen because of slots; they want to start CMH-LGA but can't for that reason. For as big a station as it is, CMH only has seasonal HOU service.


I was about to post a similar sentiment. I wonder if WN is kicking themselves for not committing to CVG earlier? Had they made the move earlier, I could see CVG having DEN, LAS, Florida routes and others on WN. Now, they are in the same boat as DL. They are adding (or would be adding in the case of WN) routes as a reaction to what others are already doing. In other words they are in a position of chasing other carriers off to establish themselves rather than bringing something new to the table.

So where could WN go? Maybe DAL. Maybe STL (but I wonder if there is sufficient traffic to justify such a route). BOS? That would be interesting but you are going head to head with DL. Is Delta expensive on that route? It seems all the other cities being bandied about have service on those routes (including OAK). I just don’t see CVG as being able to support multiple carriers to the same destination. I wish we could but it’s not reality.
 
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rangercarp
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:38 pm

Briancw wrote:
jplatts is a chatbot...a computer program. It's not an actual person. Its posts will always read like that with odd/awkward wording, repetitive information, and the like. It's quite annoying.

It could be worse. Just be glad that the "poster who shall not be named" from the DTW threads does not show up here.
iwgbtp!
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 805
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:57 pm

GSM605 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
The problem for WN is nearly every route they could serve already has 2-3 airlines on it. I'd agree with them setting up shop with BWI/MDW/PHX/DEN/MCO/LAS in the first few years and seeing how things play out. Had they beaten F9 and/or G4 to the punch, they might've had more room to grow. LGA won't happen because of slots; they want to start CMH-LGA but can't for that reason. For as big a station as it is, CMH only has seasonal HOU service.


I was about to post a similar sentiment. I wonder if WN is kicking themselves for not committing to CVG earlier? Had they made the move earlier, I could see CVG having DEN, LAS, Florida routes and others on WN. Now, they are in the same boat as DL. They are adding (or would be adding in the case of WN) routes as a reaction to what others are already doing. In other words they are in a position of chasing other carriers off to establish themselves rather than bringing something new to the table.

So where could WN go? Maybe DAL. Maybe STL (but I wonder if there is sufficient traffic to justify such a route). BOS? That would be interesting but you are going head to head with DL. Is Delta expensive on that route? It seems all the other cities being bandied about have service on those routes (including OAK). I just don’t see CVG as being able to support multiple carriers to the same destination. I wish we could but it’s not reality.
I think this is a little overblown. WN has the size and network to make DEN, PHX, and LAS work if they want to. Leisure routes to Florida are tougher with the competition, although the volume is there if WN wanted to battle. I highly doubt you will see CVG-BOS on WN.
 
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cvgComair
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:11 pm

GSM605 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
The problem for WN is nearly every route they could serve already has 2-3 airlines on it. I'd agree with them setting up shop with BWI/MDW/PHX/DEN/MCO/LAS in the first few years and seeing how things play out. Had they beaten F9 and/or G4 to the punch, they might've had more room to grow. LGA won't happen because of slots; they want to start CMH-LGA but can't for that reason. For as big a station as it is, CMH only has seasonal HOU service.

I was about to post a similar sentiment. I wonder if WN is kicking themselves for not committing to CVG earlier? Had they made the move earlier, I could see CVG having DEN, LAS, Florida routes and others on WN. Now, they are in the same boat as DL. They are adding (or would be adding in the case of WN) routes as a reaction to what others are already doing. In other words they are in a position of chasing other carriers off to establish themselves rather than bringing something new to the table.

So where could WN go? Maybe DAL. Maybe STL (but I wonder if there is sufficient traffic to justify such a route). BOS? That would be interesting but you are going head to head with DL. Is Delta expensive on that route? It seems all the other cities being bandied about have service on those routes (including OAK). I just don’t see CVG as being able to support multiple carriers to the same destination. I wish we could but it’s not reality.

WN is definitely late in the game, but I don't know that they have to chase other carriers off the route. I am not so sure all the routes are too crowded though. The best example is probably, CVG-DEN, which had three carriers on it. G4 subsequently announced the route, which was pretty baffling (CVG is still G4's only regular link to DEN). However, they have done extremely well on the route with over 90% loads, even with DL continuously adding more seats on the route.

Right now, with some exceptions (which I will discuss below), every route from CVG has multiple carriers and fares far below the national average. As a result, carriers are adding lots of seats to meet demand and increase profits. This is a stark change from when DL purposely suppressed capacity to sell less tickets, but at a higher price. Of routes were becoming unprofitable, the carriers would be subtracting flights, not adding. The seat volumes for 2018 are already up over 2017 by 16%, that is over 1.2 million new seats for 2018. It does not sound like CVG is at a mature passenger level yet.

The routes with little to no competition right now are JFK, BOS, MKE, MCI, XNA, STL, BNA, MSY, SAN, SEA, SAT, PIT, and BDL. There are some routes like CVG-BDL/XNA which serve a niche business market. Then you have DL's monopoly routes such as CVG-BOS/MKE/MCI/STL/BNA/SEA. I frankly can't see WN entering any of them. A common one to bring up is BOS, which DL chargers insanely high fares, but they also put an immense amount of seats on the route (2xB738, 2xCR9 at peak). If WN were to try to enter with its large aircraft, I think DL would flood the route with 4xB738 and drive WN out. The only carrier I see having a chance is B6 because of their smaller aircraft size and loyalty in BOS to take the BOS-CVG traffic, while DL could take the CVG-BOS traffic. The rest of the routes have too low PDEW for WN and I have no doubt we will be seeing DL on some (if not all) of these routes in the near future: MSY/SAN/SAT/PIT. Domestically, CVG already has nonstop service to every corner of the US, MEM/PDX are really the only two holes left, and I could see DL picking up both (or perhaps F9 to PDX).

As for WN expansion, I think they need to reduce MDW/BWI and add 1x/day to DEN/LAS/PHX/TPA/MCO. It is not a lot, but it is all I can see them adding at the moment. Yes these routes are crowded, but when current carriers are getting over 90% loads on these routes, there is still room for more flights.

CVG's pax are rapidly growing but we are just catching up to IND/CLE/PIT, which I think are all going to join the 10 million ranks in the next few years. PIT/CLE should just edge out CVG, which I think will narrowly surpass IND for 2018. A fact that is not often reported by CVG is that local traffic is growing, but it is still below the peak from the late 90's (pre 9/11). Since the region has grown and more people are going to be able to fly due to income increases, I think we are not yet at the ceiling for growth.
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Springs1816
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:22 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
GSM605 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
The problem for WN is nearly every route they could serve already has 2-3 airlines on it. I'd agree with them setting up shop with BWI/MDW/PHX/DEN/MCO/LAS in the first few years and seeing how things play out. Had they beaten F9 and/or G4 to the punch, they might've had more room to grow. LGA won't happen because of slots; they want to start CMH-LGA but can't for that reason. For as big a station as it is, CMH only has seasonal HOU service.


I was about to post a similar sentiment. I wonder if WN is kicking themselves for not committing to CVG earlier? Had they made the move earlier, I could see CVG having DEN, LAS, Florida routes and others on WN. Now, they are in the same boat as DL. They are adding (or would be adding in the case of WN) routes as a reaction to what others are already doing. In other words they are in a position of chasing other carriers off to establish themselves rather than bringing something new to the table.

So where could WN go? Maybe DAL. Maybe STL (but I wonder if there is sufficient traffic to justify such a route). BOS? That would be interesting but you are going head to head with DL. Is Delta expensive on that route? It seems all the other cities being bandied about have service on those routes (including OAK). I just don’t see CVG as being able to support multiple carriers to the same destination. I wish we could but it’s not reality.
I think this is a little overblown. WN has the size and network to make DEN, PHX, and LAS work if they want to. Leisure routes to Florida are tougher with the competition, although the volume is there if WN wanted to battle. I highly doubt you will see CVG-BOS on WN.


I tend to agree. I think WN will settle somewhere in the 10-12 to possibly 15 departures a day eventually but that is it. It will be a combination of their strongest cities. I think DEN is likely even with the competition. STL I could see as DL fares are high and STL being a much more hub focused city for WN with new connections going out west from there. Obvious options could be DAL, PHX, LAS and maybe BNA. I think it would be funny and interesting if they did one a day to ATL for connections south. I think their schedule update is soon so perhaps we'll know shortly. As for BOS I would say it's unlikely but who knows. They might. I think B6 eventually gets on it but not until they figure out their fleet situation. They use the 190s to PIT and CLE so it stands to reason they would use similar metal to those for CVG. Unfortunately for us they aren't taking anymore deliveries of those so until they replace those with the newer model from Embraer or the C Series I don't think they'll be coming to CVG in the near future.

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