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JDawgboy512
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:39 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:51 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Interesting. Hensel Phelps will be the firm constructing the new Concourse D at BNA, which should begin construction here pretty soon.

Are they really putting A380-compatible gates in the new addition? Does AUS anticipate that it could get A380 service sometime in the near future?

I guess they are finally preparing for the future, not in the near future but in the far future ABIA might see an A380. Apparently two of the gates will be A380 compatible. (the two that will come with two jet bridges)


Two A380 compatible gates? That’s surprising.

I just don’t see any carrier using the A380 into AUS anytime soon, expect for diversions from either IAH or DFW.

The only scernario I see where A380s fly into AUS regularly is if DL builds a hub and as a result, their foreign partner carriers such as Air France, KLM and Korean Air start flights into the airport and use it. But that is a stretch, since we don’t know for sure what DL’s plans are for the airport.



That's what my thinking is regarding diversions. AUS is the preferred diversion port for both Dallas and Houston. It would make sense for the port to accommodate those types of planes.

Longer term, we could see something from Delta. At any rate there will come a time when Austin will be able to handle traffic of that caliber, at least they are smart enough to include 2 gates now.
 
khowaga
Posts: 213
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:44 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Interesting. Hensel Phelps will be the firm constructing the new Concourse D at BNA, which should begin construction here pretty soon.

Are they really putting A380-compatible gates in the new addition? Does AUS anticipate that it could get A380 service sometime in the near future?

I guess they are finally preparing for the future, not in the near future but in the far future ABIA might see an A380. Apparently two of the gates will be A380 compatible. (the two that will come with two jet bridges)


Two A380 compatible gates? That’s surprising.

I just don’t see any carrier using the A380 into AUS anytime soon, expect for diversions from either IAH or DFW.

The only scernario I see where A380s fly into AUS regularly is if DL builds a hub and as a result, their foreign partner carriers such as Air France, KLM and Korean Air start flights into the airport and use it. But that is a stretch, since we don’t know for sure what DL’s plans are for the airport.


They’re 380 *compatible* but can easily service any aircraft where boarding simultaneously through two jetways is desireable. At other airports I’ve seen two jetway boarding used on aircraft as “small” as the 757. So, BA will likely use it for premium cabin boarding on the 787 (and seasonal swaps), as can Norwegian and Condor.

I doubt anyone expects scheduled A380 service to AUS in the near...or even mid-future. The most likely scenario is that we might see an A380 charter for Formula 1.
 
masonh2479
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:08 pm

 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 2076
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:25 am

khowaga wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
I guess they are finally preparing for the future, not in the near future but in the far future ABIA might see an A380. Apparently two of the gates will be A380 compatible. (the two that will come with two jet bridges)


Two A380 compatible gates? That’s surprising.

I just don’t see any carrier using the A380 into AUS anytime soon, expect for diversions from either IAH or DFW.

The only scernario I see where A380s fly into AUS regularly is if DL builds a hub and as a result, their foreign partner carriers such as Air France, KLM and Korean Air start flights into the airport and use it. But that is a stretch, since we don’t know for sure what DL’s plans are for the airport.


They’re 380 *compatible* but can easily service any aircraft where boarding simultaneously through two jetways is desireable. At other airports I’ve seen two jetway boarding used on aircraft as “small” as the 757. So, BA will likely use it for premium cabin boarding on the 787 (and seasonal swaps), as can Norwegian and Condor.

I doubt anyone expects scheduled A380 service to AUS in the near...or even mid-future. The most likely scenario is that we might see an A380 charter for Formula 1.


Not for SXSW too?
 
khowaga
Posts: 213
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:46 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Two A380 compatible gates? That’s surprising.

I just don’t see any carrier using the A380 into AUS anytime soon, expect for diversions from either IAH or DFW.

The only scernario I see where A380s fly into AUS regularly is if DL builds a hub and as a result, their foreign partner carriers such as Air France, KLM and Korean Air start flights into the airport and use it. But that is a stretch, since we don’t know for sure what DL’s plans are for the airport.


They’re 380 *compatible* but can easily service any aircraft where boarding simultaneously through two jetways is desireable. At other airports I’ve seen two jetway boarding used on aircraft as “small” as the 757. So, BA will likely use it for premium cabin boarding on the 787 (and seasonal swaps), as can Norwegian and Condor.

I doubt anyone expects scheduled A380 service to AUS in the near...or even mid-future. The most likely scenario is that we might see an A380 charter for Formula 1.


Not for SXSW too?


NO! ONLY FOR F1!! :rotfl:

Nah, seriously, perhaps, but on another forum I read that certain, erm, insanely wealth citizens of oil producing countries had been complaining they couldn’t get a chartered 380 in for F1, which is why I said that...
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:09 am

So if DL puts a focus city in AUS, what are some non-hub/focus city p2p routes that DL could serve from AUS?
 
digitalman12
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:01 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:16 am

ADrum23 wrote:
So if DL puts a focus city in AUS, what are some non-hub/focus city p2p routes that DL could serve from AUS?




I'm no expert, but:

IND, PDX, SJC, MCO, MCI, BNA, MEM, DCA, CMH, TPA, RSW make sense to me.

SFO too, but might have too much competition, though AUS-Silicon Valley is in high demand.

If they wanted to make more of a small regional hub out of it, maybe they could add flights to nearby airports such as IAH, DFW, LBB, GRK, ELP, SPS, etc
 
tcfc424
Posts: 516
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:56 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:31 am

I would think that this expansion would eliminate the possibility of Frontier moving to the South terminal. With only 3 "gates" and a fairly small area, I think that this expansion in conjunction with Allegiant already operating a decent operation would be too much for the little warehouse.

Regarding the A380-capable gates...surely overbuilt...for now. I can recall thinking to myself that I would never see a 747 in scheduled pax service in Austin. That is happening. I would expect that they will mainly handle the diversions. There's a lot of 380's that fly to nearby DFW and IAH, so that would help those flight planners tremendously when toying with our summer weather. You could also see an occasional one-off charter for SXSW, ACL, F1, etc.

I also have on good authority (all verbal...can't point to an article...but someone who DEFINITELY knows whats up at the airport construction wise) that a new master plan is already being drafted, as the other one likely has to be burned now that all the pax numbers are in excess of planned. The airport is currently operating between 5-15% HIGHER than estimated capacity. With the growth rates and time, the terminal will be at or above estimated capacity when the expansion opens. The next year looks to be a busy one of the airport planning board's calendar. They will be determining just how this airport is going to grow. Some of the landside ideas IMO are stellar, some are absolute junk. Same with the terminal expansion/satellite terminal/terminal 2/terminal S1A. All of these are options, and the solid word is that the airport authority will want to move into the next level of expansion at the conclusion of the current expansion. Those of us in AUS should keep our ears peeled for some of these announcements...there could be some exciting public meetings to go to, and the silly council (I mean City Council...my apologies) meetings should be equally as interesting.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:54 pm

tcfc424 wrote:
I also have on good authority (all verbal...can't point to an article...but someone who DEFINITELY knows whats up at the airport construction wise) that a new master plan is already being drafted, as the other one likely has to be burned now that all the pax numbers are in excess of planned. The airport is currently operating between 5-15% HIGHER than estimated capacity. With the growth rates and time, the terminal will be at or above estimated capacity when the expansion opens. The next year looks to be a busy one of the airport planning board's calendar. They will be determining just how this airport is going to grow. Some of the landside ideas IMO are stellar, some are absolute junk. Same with the terminal expansion/satellite terminal/terminal 2/terminal S1A. All of these are options, and the solid word is that the airport authority will want to move into the next level of expansion at the conclusion of the current expansion. Those of us in AUS should keep our ears peeled for some of these announcements...there could be some exciting public meetings to go to, and the silly council (I mean City Council...my apologies) meetings should be equally as interesting.


IMO, the best thing to do would be to simply start building satellite concourses to the south with an automated people mover (a la ATL or CVG). Of course, that may require the relocation of the infrastructure in the middle (i.e the air traffic control tower), depending on how many are built.

As far as how much the airport grows, that depends on how much carriers like DL and WN will ultimately expand. If the recent rumors are true, DL may be putting in a CVG/RDU-style focus city operation at the airport, but I think there is a small (not likely, but more than far-fetched) possibility DL opens a full hub of similar size to SLC at AUS. If that happened, then traffic would grow significantly (likely in the 30 million range) and would require not only the construction of at least one whole new 30+ gate concourse, but a third runway as well (a third runway may be needed regardless, but a hub operation would expedite the need for it).
 
jplatts
Posts: 1865
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:32 pm

digitalman12 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
So if DL puts a focus city in AUS, what are some non-hub/focus city p2p routes that DL could serve from AUS?

I'm no expert, but:
IND, PDX, SJC, MCO, MCI, BNA, MEM, DCA, CMH, TPA, RSW make sense to me.


DCA has perimeter restrictions and AUS is beyond the DCA perimeter. However, WN can legally operate 1 daily nonstop to DCA from AUS since WN has a beyond-perimeter slot exemption that allows WN to serve DCA nonstop from AUS.

DL already uses the 4 beyond-perimeter slot exemptions that it holds at DCA for its DCA-LAX and DCA-SLC nonstops, and DL does not have any beyond perimeter slot exemptions available that could be used for AUS-DCA nonstop service.
 
jubguy3
Posts: 511
Joined: Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:18 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:57 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
tcfc424 wrote:
I also have on good authority (all verbal...can't point to an article...but someone who DEFINITELY knows whats up at the airport construction wise) that a new master plan is already being drafted, as the other one likely has to be burned now that all the pax numbers are in excess of planned. The airport is currently operating between 5-15% HIGHER than estimated capacity. With the growth rates and time, the terminal will be at or above estimated capacity when the expansion opens. The next year looks to be a busy one of the airport planning board's calendar. They will be determining just how this airport is going to grow. Some of the landside ideas IMO are stellar, some are absolute junk. Same with the terminal expansion/satellite terminal/terminal 2/terminal S1A. All of these are options, and the solid word is that the airport authority will want to move into the next level of expansion at the conclusion of the current expansion. Those of us in AUS should keep our ears peeled for some of these announcements...there could be some exciting public meetings to go to, and the silly council (I mean City Council...my apologies) meetings should be equally as interesting.


IMO, the best thing to do would be to simply start building satellite concourses to the south with an automated people mover (a la ATL or CVG). Of course, that may require the relocation of the infrastructure in the middle (i.e the air traffic control tower), depending on how many are built.

As far as how much the airport grows, that depends on how much carriers like DL and WN will ultimately expand. If the recent rumors are true, DL may be putting in a CVG/RDU-style focus city operation at the airport, but I think there is a small (not likely, but more than far-fetched) possibility DL opens a full hub of similar size to SLC at AUS. If that happened, then traffic would grow significantly (likely in the 30 million range) and would require not only the construction of at least one whole new 30+ gate concourse, but a third runway as well (a third runway may be needed regardless, but a hub operation would expedite the need for it).


DL will never open a SLC-sized hub at AUS. SLC is a 30 year Delta hub and a fortress hub, and only reached 4th largest Delta hub this year. SLC is already undergoing an expansion that will bring capacity to 32m pax / year, and Delta wants to build the 15 additional gates on the N Concourse and possibly a 3rd concourse by helping SLC secure low interest rate loans. The reason that they are making this investment in SLC is because of the financial standings of the airport managing authority, the 30 year FF flyer base, very low PFCs, and the fortress hub status. AUS has none of this.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:56 am

jubguy3 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
tcfc424 wrote:
I also have on good authority (all verbal...can't point to an article...but someone who DEFINITELY knows whats up at the airport construction wise) that a new master plan is already being drafted, as the other one likely has to be burned now that all the pax numbers are in excess of planned. The airport is currently operating between 5-15% HIGHER than estimated capacity. With the growth rates and time, the terminal will be at or above estimated capacity when the expansion opens. The next year looks to be a busy one of the airport planning board's calendar. They will be determining just how this airport is going to grow. Some of the landside ideas IMO are stellar, some are absolute junk. Same with the terminal expansion/satellite terminal/terminal 2/terminal S1A. All of these are options, and the solid word is that the airport authority will want to move into the next level of expansion at the conclusion of the current expansion. Those of us in AUS should keep our ears peeled for some of these announcements...there could be some exciting public meetings to go to, and the silly council (I mean City Council...my apologies) meetings should be equally as interesting.


IMO, the best thing to do would be to simply start building satellite concourses to the south with an automated people mover (a la ATL or CVG). Of course, that may require the relocation of the infrastructure in the middle (i.e the air traffic control tower), depending on how many are built.

As far as how much the airport grows, that depends on how much carriers like DL and WN will ultimately expand. If the recent rumors are true, DL may be putting in a CVG/RDU-style focus city operation at the airport, but I think there is a small (not likely, but more than far-fetched) possibility DL opens a full hub of similar size to SLC at AUS. If that happened, then traffic would grow significantly (likely in the 30 million range) and would require not only the construction of at least one whole new 30+ gate concourse, but a third runway as well (a third runway may be needed regardless, but a hub operation would expedite the need for it).


DL will never open a SLC-sized hub at AUS. SLC is a 30 year Delta hub and a fortress hub, and only reached 4th largest Delta hub this year. SLC is already undergoing an expansion that will bring capacity to 32m pax / year, and Delta wants to build the 15 additional gates on the N Concourse and possibly a 3rd concourse by helping SLC secure low interest rate loans. The reason that they are making this investment in SLC is because of the financial standings of the airport managing authority, the 30 year FF flyer base, very low PFCs, and the fortress hub status. AUS has none of this.


I’m not saying it’s likely DL puts a hub in AUS, I’m simply saying it’s possible, as DL needs a presence in Texas. Of course, it would take time to build up AUS, so it would likely start out as a CVG/RDU-style focus city and evolve over time from there. I only used SLC as a comparison because any hub at AUS would not be terribly big, at most it would be 250-300 flights (SLC is somewhere in that range) and that is being generous.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2094
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:12 am

ADrum23 wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

IMO, the best thing to do would be to simply start building satellite concourses to the south with an automated people mover (a la ATL or CVG). Of course, that may require the relocation of the infrastructure in the middle (i.e the air traffic control tower), depending on how many are built.

As far as how much the airport grows, that depends on how much carriers like DL and WN will ultimately expand. If the recent rumors are true, DL may be putting in a CVG/RDU-style focus city operation at the airport, but I think there is a small (not likely, but more than far-fetched) possibility DL opens a full hub of similar size to SLC at AUS. If that happened, then traffic would grow significantly (likely in the 30 million range) and would require not only the construction of at least one whole new 30+ gate concourse, but a third runway as well (a third runway may be needed regardless, but a hub operation would expedite the need for it).


DL will never open a SLC-sized hub at AUS. SLC is a 30 year Delta hub and a fortress hub, and only reached 4th largest Delta hub this year. SLC is already undergoing an expansion that will bring capacity to 32m pax / year, and Delta wants to build the 15 additional gates on the N Concourse and possibly a 3rd concourse by helping SLC secure low interest rate loans. The reason that they are making this investment in SLC is because of the financial standings of the airport managing authority, the 30 year FF flyer base, very low PFCs, and the fortress hub status. AUS has none of this.


I’m not saying it’s likely DL puts a hub in AUS, I’m simply saying it’s possible, as DL needs a presence in Texas. Of course, it would take time to build up AUS, so it would likely start out as a CVG/RDU-style focus city and evolve over time from there. I only used SLC as a comparison because any hub at AUS would not be terribly big, at most it would be 250-300 flights (SLC is somewhere in that range) and that is being generous.


Slc is one of the 4 delta dominated fortress hubs. One of the most profitable hubs among all carriers. None of the new delta focus cities or hubs can reach the margin, local dominance or geographical suitability of slc, let alone a speculated focus city like Aus. It’s enormously expensive for a legacy carrier to build new focus city in an airport dominated by lower cost competiton.
 
jubguy3
Posts: 511
Joined: Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:18 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:27 am

ADrum23 wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

IMO, the best thing to do would be to simply start building satellite concourses to the south with an automated people mover (a la ATL or CVG). Of course, that may require the relocation of the infrastructure in the middle (i.e the air traffic control tower), depending on how many are built.

As far as how much the airport grows, that depends on how much carriers like DL and WN will ultimately expand. If the recent rumors are true, DL may be putting in a CVG/RDU-style focus city operation at the airport, but I think there is a small (not likely, but more than far-fetched) possibility DL opens a full hub of similar size to SLC at AUS. If that happened, then traffic would grow significantly (likely in the 30 million range) and would require not only the construction of at least one whole new 30+ gate concourse, but a third runway as well (a third runway may be needed regardless, but a hub operation would expedite the need for it).


DL will never open a SLC-sized hub at AUS. SLC is a 30 year Delta hub and a fortress hub, and only reached 4th largest Delta hub this year. SLC is already undergoing an expansion that will bring capacity to 32m pax / year, and Delta wants to build the 15 additional gates on the N Concourse and possibly a 3rd concourse by helping SLC secure low interest rate loans. The reason that they are making this investment in SLC is because of the financial standings of the airport managing authority, the 30 year FF flyer base, very low PFCs, and the fortress hub status. AUS has none of this.


I’m not saying it’s likely DL puts a hub in AUS, I’m simply saying it’s possible, as DL needs a presence in Texas. Of course, it would take time to build up AUS, so it would likely start out as a CVG/RDU-style focus city and evolve over time from there. I only used SLC as a comparison because any hub at AUS would not be terribly big, at most it would be 250-300 flights (SLC is somewhere in that range) and that is being generous.


AA doesn't have a presence in the Northwest, and UA doesn't have a presence in the Southeast. Some markets are left best alone for the sake of reducing losses from heavy competition, and at the very least, Texas still has relatively easy connections to DL hubs. I'm confused why you say it wouldn't be "terribly big" at 250-300 flights - that seems like a lot of overconfidence on your part. That's still more than all but 4 Delta hubs. If they ever built a focus city, it could probably see 50-60 flights a day max. 250-300 flights is a large hub.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:56 am

jubguy3 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:

DL will never open a SLC-sized hub at AUS. SLC is a 30 year Delta hub and a fortress hub, and only reached 4th largest Delta hub this year. SLC is already undergoing an expansion that will bring capacity to 32m pax / year, and Delta wants to build the 15 additional gates on the N Concourse and possibly a 3rd concourse by helping SLC secure low interest rate loans. The reason that they are making this investment in SLC is because of the financial standings of the airport managing authority, the 30 year FF flyer base, very low PFCs, and the fortress hub status. AUS has none of this.


I’m not saying it’s likely DL puts a hub in AUS, I’m simply saying it’s possible, as DL needs a presence in Texas. Of course, it would take time to build up AUS, so it would likely start out as a CVG/RDU-style focus city and evolve over time from there. I only used SLC as a comparison because any hub at AUS would not be terribly big, at most it would be 250-300 flights (SLC is somewhere in that range) and that is being generous.


AA doesn't have a presence in the Northwest, and UA doesn't have a presence in the Southeast. Some markets are left best alone for the sake of reducing losses from heavy competition, and at the very least, Texas still has relatively easy connections to DL hubs. I'm confused why you say it wouldn't be "terribly big" at 250-300 flights - that seems like a lot of overconfidence on your part. That's still more than all but 4 Delta hubs. If they ever built a focus city, it could probably see 50-60 flights a day max. 250-300 flights is a large hub.


Normally I’d agree with your first point, but in this case, I disagree as Texas is the second largest state in the union and growing rapidly. DL is missing out by not having a presence in Texas. AUS (and SAN) are 1,000 miles away from both the ATL and SLC hubs (the closest DL hubs to Texas), so there really isn’t easy connections.

7 of the 10 AA hubs have 250 or more flights, and 5 of the 7 domestic UA hubs have 250+ flights, so the 250-300 range is pretty average by US3 standards. It may be large for DL because they don’t spread out their capacity like AA and UA do and are bent on routing as much through ATL as possible. Granted, upon further study of the DL network, you make a fair point saying that 250-300 flights may be too much, so I will revise my forecast to be around 200 or so flights max in a hypothetical AUS hub.

I do think a DL focus city operation would be a good interim plan to test the market and see what demand is there. If it is successful, then they can add more based on demand. Doing something with AUS would be the final piece to DL’s network puzzle and would give them a unrivaled nationwide network.
 
khowaga
Posts: 213
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:08 am

ADrum23 wrote:
7 of the 10 AA hubs have 250 or more flights, and 5 of the 7 domestic UA hubs have 250+ flights, so the 250-300 range is pretty average by US3 standards. It may be large for DL because they don’t spread out their capacity like AA and UA do and are bent on routing as much through ATL as possible. Granted, upon further study of the DL network, you make a fair point saying that 250-300 flights may be too much, so I will revise my forecast to be around 200 or so flights max in a hypothetical AUS hub.

I do think a DL focus city operation would be a good interim plan to test the market and see what demand is there. If it is successful, then they can add more based on demand. Doing something with AUS would be the final piece to DL’s network puzzle and would give them a unrivaled nationwide network.


DL is putting a lot of investment in just to “test” the market, IMO. I think anything that results would be smaller (right now I’d consider 100 flights per day a pipe dream-remember that even after the extension is done they’ll only have 6 gates) and focused on non-Texas destinations.

I really don’t get the insistence that DL wanting an increased presence in AUS means that they’re going to try to scoop WN on AUS-MAF, for example. It’s based on a false logic of:

1) DL wants to increase AUS (apparently—mind you that, other than rumors on this forum, we have no actual confirmation that this is a thing);
2) DL doesn’t serve smaller TX destinations, therefore:
3) part of the increase in AUS is going to be flying from AUS to smaller Texas destinations.

I’m dubious at best, at least for the initial wave or two of the expansion.

Simply put: if DL cared that much about connecting to the rest of Texas they be doing it from their other hubs, through which they can offer a hell of a lot more connectivity. People in those cities want access to the rest of the US, they could care less whether they connect through a Texas city to get there.

My guess is that AUS is going to be touted as a biz destination and traffic increases will be to places DL is already big: the NE, PNW, Florida.

However, the sad truth for all of us armchair watchers is this: only DL knows what DL is planning, and they are being really, annoyingly, frustratingly tight lipped about it.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:45 am

khowaga wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
7 of the 10 AA hubs have 250 or more flights, and 5 of the 7 domestic UA hubs have 250+ flights, so the 250-300 range is pretty average by US3 standards. It may be large for DL because they don’t spread out their capacity like AA and UA do and are bent on routing as much through ATL as possible. Granted, upon further study of the DL network, you make a fair point saying that 250-300 flights may be too much, so I will revise my forecast to be around 200 or so flights max in a hypothetical AUS hub.

I do think a DL focus city operation would be a good interim plan to test the market and see what demand is there. If it is successful, then they can add more based on demand. Doing something with AUS would be the final piece to DL’s network puzzle and would give them a unrivaled nationwide network.


DL is putting a lot of investment in just to “test” the market, IMO. I think anything that results would be smaller (right now I’d consider 100 flights per day a pipe dream-remember that even after the extension is done they’ll only have 6 gates) and focused on non-Texas destinations.

I really don’t get the insistence that DL wanting an increased presence in AUS means that they’re going to try to scoop WN on AUS-MAF, for example. It’s based on a false logic of:

1) DL wants to increase AUS (apparently—mind you that, other than rumors on this forum, we have no actual confirmation that this is a thing);
2) DL doesn’t serve smaller TX destinations, therefore:
3) part of the increase in AUS is going to be flying from AUS to smaller Texas destinations.

I’m dubious at best, at least for the initial wave or two of the expansion.

Simply put: if DL cared that much about connecting to the rest of Texas they be doing it from their other hubs, through which they can offer a hell of a lot more connectivity. People in those cities want access to the rest of the US, they could care less whether they connect through a Texas city to get there.

My guess is that AUS is going to be touted as a biz destination and traffic increases will be to places DL is already big: the NE, PNW, Florida.

However, the sad truth for all of us armchair watchers is this: only DL knows what DL is planning, and they are being really, annoyingly, frustratingly tight lipped about it.


Just from my observation, I’d be scratching my head as to why DL is putting an awfully nice SkyClub into AUS if it were to remain a mere spoke (with only flights to other hubs/focus cities).

They continuously tout themselves as becoming the airline of choice of young professionals, which would make an AUS expansion make all the more sense.

Who knows what will happen. I just feel DL would be making a terrible mistake ignoring Texas.
 
khowaga
Posts: 213
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:52 am

ADrum23 wrote:

Just from my observation, I’d be scratching my head as to why DL is putting an awfully nice SkyClub into AUS if it were to remain a mere spoke (with only flights to other hubs/focus cities).

They continuously tout themselves as becoming the airline of choice of young professionals, which would make an AUS expansion make all the more sense.

Who knows what will happen. I just feel DL would be making a terrible mistake ignoring Texas.


Oh, I’ll bet I know this one. The Admiral’s Club is HORRIBLY cramped. Way too small. United Club might have the same problem (haven’t been in it in a while). And the food is... present. And that’s about all you can say for it.

And now, here comes DL, the new young hip airline, trying to lure premium fliers away from AA/oneworld and UA/Star with its awesome sexy new club.

Remember, people can connect through focus cities, too. If given the choice, wouldn’t you rather connect between SJC and RDU through an airport like AUS instead of ATL or SLC? Way smaller, much better on time rate, and did we mention the sexy new SkyClub?
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:32 pm

khowaga wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Just from my observation, I’d be scratching my head as to why DL is putting an awfully nice SkyClub into AUS if it were to remain a mere spoke (with only flights to other hubs/focus cities).

They continuously tout themselves as becoming the airline of choice of young professionals, which would make an AUS expansion make all the more sense.

Who knows what will happen. I just feel DL would be making a terrible mistake ignoring Texas.


Oh, I’ll bet I know this one. The Admiral’s Club is HORRIBLY cramped. Way too small. United Club might have the same problem (haven’t been in it in a while). And the food is... present. And that’s about all you can say for it.

And now, here comes DL, the new young hip airline, trying to lure premium fliers away from AA/oneworld and UA/Star with its awesome sexy new club.

Remember, people can connect through focus cities, too. If given the choice, wouldn’t you rather connect between SJC and RDU through an airport like AUS instead of ATL or SLC? Way smaller, much better on time rate, and did we mention the sexy new SkyClub?


Lol, no need to get defensive. Just trying to have a conversation.

I’d be more than content with a DL CVG/RDU-style focus city in AUS, and yes, I’d rather connect there than in ATL or SLC. But they need to add p2p flights first, they don’t have any at the moment. One flight I hope is added is BNA-AUS, only WN serves it at the moment and another option would be nice.

Again, who knows what DL’s plans are. I’m just saying anything is possible (including no expansion, though DL would be foolish to go that route).
 
tphuang
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:42 pm

They may add a few more flights, but they have already publicly stated Mexico City is their Texas. They don’t have gate space for anything big. Southwest is far more gate constrainted and would add a lot of flights if they get more gates. Wn and aa have all the advantage here. There is a limit to how many cities dl can build small hub or focus cities at once. Their expansion in Seattle and Boston are really expensive.

If economy ever takes a downturn, all these new hub and focus cities are going to get downsized.
 
jubguy3
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:01 pm

khowaga wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Just from my observation, I’d be scratching my head as to why DL is putting an awfully nice SkyClub into AUS if it were to remain a mere spoke (with only flights to other hubs/focus cities).

They continuously tout themselves as becoming the airline of choice of young professionals, which would make an AUS expansion make all the more sense.

Who knows what will happen. I just feel DL would be making a terrible mistake ignoring Texas.


Oh, I’ll bet I know this one. The Admiral’s Club is HORRIBLY cramped. Way too small. United Club might have the same problem (haven’t been in it in a while). And the food is... present. And that’s about all you can say for it.

And now, here comes DL, the new young hip airline, trying to lure premium fliers away from AA/oneworld and UA/Star with its awesome sexy new club.

Remember, people can connect through focus cities, too. If given the choice, wouldn’t you rather connect between SJC and RDU through an airport like AUS instead of ATL or SLC? Way smaller, much better on time rate, and did we mention the sexy new SkyClub?


But SLC is consistently ranked the most on-time airport in the country, and Delta is higher than the airport average, never below 90% but usually 92% or 93%. If you connect through a focus city, you're less likely to receive any sort of effective reprise if your flight is cancelled or significantly delayed because they have less capacity throughout the network.

This will be true until 2020 when the new SLC opens and guess what... there is another giant sexy brand new SkyClub. People aren't going to make significant traffic pattern changes because AUS has a comparatively nice SkyClub for two years.
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:13 pm

tphuang wrote:
They may add a few more flights, but they have already publicly stated Mexico City is their Texas. They don’t have gate space for anything big. Southwest is far more gate constrainted and would add a lot of flights if they get more gates. Wn and aa have all the advantage here. There is a limit to how many cities dl can build small hub or focus cities at once. Their expansion in Seattle and Boston are really expensive.


AA has no advantage (no pun intended) as they only fly to hubs from AUS. You want to fly AA out of AUS? Most of the time, you are flying through DFW.

WN is the biggest, but they are still well under 100 flights, so DL has a window to catch them. Granted, that window is closing and they’ll need to act quick, but it’s there right now.
 
tphuang
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:39 pm

Aa has a large ff base in Texas. You can do a short hop to Dallas and fly anywhere in the world. Or you can do a short hop to Houston and fly anywhere in the world on ua. Southwest has all the domestic routes out of Austin locked up. Again, southwest is very gate constrained. If they get more gates, they can really corner the aus market.
 
ldvaviation
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:56 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
AA has no advantage (no pun intended) as they only fly to hubs from AUS. You want to fly AA out of AUS? Most of the time, you are flying through DFW.

WN is the biggest, but they are still well under 100 flights, so DL has a window to catch them. Granted, that window is closing and they’ll need to act quick, but it’s there right now.


AA's advantage is that 5 of the top 10 markets out of Austin are AA hubs. (Only 2 of the 10 are Delta hubs.)

... Delta operates 7 flights a day to Atlanta, more than any other destination. Apparently, if you want to fly Delta out of AUS, most of the time you are flying through ATL.
 
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william
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
They may add a few more flights, but they have already publicly stated Mexico City is their Texas. They don’t have gate space for anything big. Southwest is far more gate constrainted and would add a lot of flights if they get more gates. Wn and aa have all the advantage here. There is a limit to how many cities dl can build small hub or focus cities at once. Their expansion in Seattle and Boston are really expensive.

If economy ever takes a downturn, all these new hub and focus cities are going to get downsized.


Please explain how Mexico City is a Connecting hub like Texas.
 
tphuang
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:15 pm

william wrote:
tphuang wrote:
They may add a few more flights, but they have already publicly stated Mexico City is their Texas. They don’t have gate space for anything big. Southwest is far more gate constrainted and would add a lot of flights if they get more gates. Wn and aa have all the advantage here. There is a limit to how many cities dl can build small hub or focus cities at once. Their expansion in Seattle and Boston are really expensive.

If economy ever takes a downturn, all these new hub and focus cities are going to get downsized.


Please explain how Mexico City is a Connecting hub like Texas.


Please check earlier this thread of a tweet I linked to. I am simply repeating what ed bastian said.
 
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william
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:44 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
Oh, sorry, I didn’t mean to put you on the defensive. The sarcasm comes natural with me, I’m afraid. It can be hard to tell with writing! I wish they’d develop a “don’t take this seriously” font, y’know?


It’s all good. It’s just some people on this site get really defensive and snarky when a new idea or proposal is put forth, and it prevents people from having an honest conversation. I’m getting really tired of it.


Do you live in Austin or near it? The reason why I asked if you did you would understand the the reasons why SWA is #1 at AUS and the strength of its brand. That AA flies to destinations other than DFW and ORD and is a solid #2. United is #3 riding on the strength of its old Continental roots. No one is poo pooing your idea, but giving you reasons why it will be difficult for Delta to set a hub at AUS. I am sure Delta has done its homework, but they will find out soon enough that AUS is not SEA.
 
ty97
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:19 pm

william wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
Oh, sorry, I didn’t mean to put you on the defensive. The sarcasm comes natural with me, I’m afraid. It can be hard to tell with writing! I wish they’d develop a “don’t take this seriously” font, y’know?


It’s all good. It’s just some people on this site get really defensive and snarky when a new idea or proposal is put forth, and it prevents people from having an honest conversation. I’m getting really tired of it.


Do you live in Austin or near it? The reason why I asked if you did you would understand the the reasons why SWA is #1 at AUS and the strength of its brand. That AA flies to destinations other than DFW and ORD and is a solid #2. United is #3 riding on the strength of its old Continental roots. No one is poo pooing your idea, but giving you reasons why it will be difficult for Delta to set a hub at AUS. I am sure Delta has done its homework, but they will find out soon enough that AUS is not SEA.


I lived in Austin for many years and traveled full-time for business out of AUS. You are right about the current situation, but there is nothing unique about AUS that makes it any better/worse for an airline to try to build a bigger presence. Southwest is certainly popular in AUS, but if DL launches additional cities and the fares are right, people will fly them. As to the AA hubs being 5 of the top 10 cities, that's because of how big AA is in AUS relative to others, it just follows that those cities would be big. Doesn't mean that can't change (also doesn't mean it will change)
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:44 pm

william wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
Oh, sorry, I didn’t mean to put you on the defensive. The sarcasm comes natural with me, I’m afraid. It can be hard to tell with writing! I wish they’d develop a “don’t take this seriously” font, y’know?


It’s all good. It’s just some people on this site get really defensive and snarky when a new idea or proposal is put forth, and it prevents people from having an honest conversation. I’m getting really tired of it.


Do you live in Austin or near it? The reason why I asked if you did you would understand the the reasons why SWA is #1 at AUS and the strength of its brand. That AA flies to destinations other than DFW and ORD and is a solid #2. United is #3 riding on the strength of its old Continental roots. No one is poo pooing your idea, but giving you reasons why it will be difficult for Delta to set a hub at AUS. I am sure Delta has done its homework, but they will find out soon enough that AUS is not SEA.


In addition I highly doubt WN is just going to fall over and die...with F9/WN/AA/UA all having large presences in AUS, it would be a blood bath if DL tried to open up a hub/focus city...and the victor would not be DL it would be WN.

From a sheer numbers perspective, there are very few routes where DL could be the only carrier and charge a premium, meaning if they want to grow, they'd have to be the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th carrier on a route (read ultra-competitive and unprofitable). I don't see a way DL gets past 60 or so daily flights from AUS, in a profitable fashion....

Plus, if you want to be a dominant carrier in TX, you would have to serve Dallas and Houston, and I don't see DL being able to compete with UA/AA/WN's service to those cities
DL DM, AA Gold in 2018, Visited 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, DXB, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH
 
SATexan
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:51 pm

It is hard to fathom DL's plans for AUS beyond what we know - Sky Club with a Sky deck, just yet. In theory, certain Southern California to Florida routes are shorter when flown via AUS over ATL. It also helps that SLC is not particularly well connected to Florida. So they could likely use AUS as a hub to offer some East-West connections. But then ATL is already such a behemoth that it would take a huge buildup in AUS to actually make this work.

They could also use AUS as a staging point for some flights to Mexico. MEX, GDL, MTY, CUN (especially if they cut down some service from other cities), PVR, SJD and possibly BJX would be worth trying. It would be very risky effort considering that AUS-Mexico O&D isn't very significant and the airport has never had a whole lot of capacity to Mexico. Heck, even a couple of years ago there wasn't even a single daily flight to Mexico.

As far as intra-Texas flying is concerned, EL Paso, McAllen and may be Midland would be worthwhile attempts. The others like Corpus, Amarillo, San Angelo and even Lubbock are really long shots with very well entrenched carriers from other Texas Mega hubs.

By all projections, AUS is poised for huge passenger growth in the coming years. So realistically, DL can add 2 or 3 new cities and increase frequencies to other hubs. Any plans to make it a 'mini-hub' will come with a lot of competition and risks.
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:24 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
william wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

It’s all good. It’s just some people on this site get really defensive and snarky when a new idea or proposal is put forth, and it prevents people from having an honest conversation. I’m getting really tired of it.


Do you live in Austin or near it? The reason why I asked if you did you would understand the the reasons why SWA is #1 at AUS and the strength of its brand. That AA flies to destinations other than DFW and ORD and is a solid #2. United is #3 riding on the strength of its old Continental roots. No one is poo pooing your idea, but giving you reasons why it will be difficult for Delta to set a hub at AUS. I am sure Delta has done its homework, but they will find out soon enough that AUS is not SEA.


In addition I highly doubt WN is just going to fall over and die...with F9/WN/AA/UA all having large presences in AUS, it would be a blood bath if DL tried to open up a hub/focus city...and the victor would not be DL it would be WN.

From a sheer numbers perspective, there are very few routes where DL could be the only carrier and charge a premium, meaning if they want to grow, they'd have to be the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th carrier on a route (read ultra-competitive and unprofitable). I don't see a way DL gets past 60 or so daily flights from AUS, in a profitable fashion....

Plus, if you want to be a dominant carrier in TX, you would have to serve Dallas and Houston, and I don't see DL being able to compete with UA/AA/WN's service to those cities


F9 and G4 don't count because they are erratic and unpredictable with their schedule and are leisure focused. Plus, most of the recent F9 additions are seasonal. As it stands, DL, UA, AA and WN are all ahead of them in passenger numbers at AUS, so I don't really count them as competition.

Indeed, the main obstacle for a DL focus city in AUS is WN, but AUS is the smallest of WN's focus cities and while they are big, it isn't necessarily an insurmountable lead. I think the following reply from above said it best.

ty97 wrote:
I lived in Austin for many years and traveled full-time for business out of AUS. You are right about the current situation, but there is nothing unique about AUS that makes it any better/worse for an airline to try to build a bigger presence. Southwest is certainly popular in AUS, but if DL launches additional cities and the fares are right, people will fly them. As to the AA hubs being 5 of the top 10 cities, that's because of how big AA is in AUS relative to others, it just follows that those cities would be big. Doesn't mean that can't change (also doesn't mean it will change)


DL could carve out a nice focus city operation and become the second largest carrier at AUS, because most routes they'd only be legitimately competing with WN. And as I often say, if given the choice between WN and DL, most business with frequent travel would probably choose DL because of its extensive global network compared to WN's niche domestic market (niche because its great for flying in the lower 48 and to the Caribbean/select Latin America destinations, but anything outside of that and you are SOL). Don't forget DL would also be bringing TATL service (likely to AMS) with this operation, giving business travels convenient overseas travel options. WN can't provide that because they refuse to codeshare with foreign airlines. Oh, and while we are on the subject of international flying, a DL focus city would potentially help with landing much coveted TPAC service down the road.

This all being said, DL will have to move pretty quickly here to establish a focus city, because you are right, WN isn't going to stand idly by and let DL take over AUS, so they will try to grow more. If that happens, they could get to the point where they become too dominant and DL would lose out.

I don't know what ultimately will happen at AUS, but again, I would be surprised if DL were putting in that nice of a SkyClub just for a mere spoke, especially when they are in 4th place currently behind all 3 of their biggest rivals.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:00 am

ADrum23 wrote:
DL could carve out a nice focus city operation and become the second largest carrier at AUS, because most routes they'd only be legitimately competing with WN. And as I often say, if given the choice between WN and DL, most business with frequent travel would probably choose DL because of its extensive global network compared to WN's niche domestic market (niche because its great for flying in the lower 48 and to the Caribbean/select Latin America destinations, but anything outside of that and you are SOL). Don't forget DL would also be bringing TATL service (likely to AMS) with this operation, giving business travels convenient overseas travel options. WN can't provide that because they refuse to codeshare with foreign airlines. Oh, and while we are on the subject of international flying, a DL focus city would potentially help with landing much coveted TPAC service down the road.

This all being said, DL will have to move pretty quickly here to establish a focus city, because you are right, WN isn't going to stand idly by and let DL take over AUS, so they will try to grow more. If that happens, they could get to the point where they become too dominant and DL would lose out.

I don't know what ultimately will happen at AUS, but again, I would be surprised if DL were putting in that nice of a SkyClub just for a mere spoke, especially when they are in 4th place currently behind all 3 of their biggest rivals.


Let's not overanalyze the SkyClub piece, down the road in MSY DL is building a brand new 2 level skyclub as well... and no one has talked about DL building a focus city there. Despite the fact that DL has a larger market share at MSY, and has recently added new seasonal flights to SEA and BOS. I think once DL actually opens p2p flights from AUS, a focus city will be a real possibility, but until then I think AUS will remain a large spoke.

I think you are underestimating the presence that WN, AA, and UA have in AUS, and the FF base each has in AUS. Let's not forget AA/BA have a flight to LHR, and I'm sure AA and UA have a ton of corporate contracts with companies based in Austin. Plus, you also can't ignore G4 and F9 here because they will drive down Y class yields on flights.
DL DM, AA Gold in 2018, Visited 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, DXB, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:57 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
DL could carve out a nice focus city operation and become the second largest carrier at AUS, because most routes they'd only be legitimately competing with WN. And as I often say, if given the choice between WN and DL, most business with frequent travel would probably choose DL because of its extensive global network compared to WN's niche domestic market (niche because its great for flying in the lower 48 and to the Caribbean/select Latin America destinations, but anything outside of that and you are SOL). Don't forget DL would also be bringing TATL service (likely to AMS) with this operation, giving business travels convenient overseas travel options. WN can't provide that because they refuse to codeshare with foreign airlines. Oh, and while we are on the subject of international flying, a DL focus city would potentially help with landing much coveted TPAC service down the road.

This all being said, DL will have to move pretty quickly here to establish a focus city, because you are right, WN isn't going to stand idly by and let DL take over AUS, so they will try to grow more. If that happens, they could get to the point where they become too dominant and DL would lose out.

I don't know what ultimately will happen at AUS, but again, I would be surprised if DL were putting in that nice of a SkyClub just for a mere spoke, especially when they are in 4th place currently behind all 3 of their biggest rivals.


Let's not overanalyze the SkyClub piece, down the road in MSY DL is building a brand new 2 level skyclub as well... and no one has talked about DL building a focus city there. Despite the fact that DL has a larger market share at MSY, and has recently added new seasonal flights to SEA and BOS. I think once DL actually opens p2p flights from AUS, a focus city will be a real possibility, but until then I think AUS will remain a large spoke.

I think you are underestimating the presence that WN, AA, and UA have in AUS, and the FF base each has in AUS. Let's not forget AA/BA have a flight to LHR, and I'm sure AA and UA have a ton of corporate contracts with companies based in Austin. Plus, you also can't ignore G4 and F9 here because they will drive down Y class yields on flights.


I think they are putting a new SkyClub at MSY only because the whole terminal is being replaced, as as such, they have an opportunity to design a new, larger one. Otherwise, they wouldn't be bothering with it. In the case of AUS, there really isn't a reason for DL to put a SkyClub period since they are in fourth behind WN, AA and UA (and don't have a big presence in Texas). Yet, they are anyway, and a pretty elaborate one too. It will be the only non hub with a Skydeck. This, combined with rumors about AUS-AMS potentially becoming a year round flight fuels the rumors of a focus city. We even had someone come on here and claim that DL will be adding quote "a lot!" from AUS soon. Of course, we absolutely need take that with a microscopic grain of salt, but nonetheless, that bold proclamation combined with the other things makes for some interesting speculation.

Indeed, WN, AA and UA all have strong FF base in AUS, since they all have large hubs/stations nearby. That probably explains why the BA flight has been so wildly successful. However, as I pointed out, none have an absolutely overwhelmingly dominant presence in AUS (there is about an 850,000 pax difference between AA and #2 and DL at #4, big, but not nearly as significant as some other airports). Also, in the case of AA and UA, one has to connect via DFW and IAH to get anywhere outside of their hub cities, it is highly unlikely either will offer p2p service in the future. If given the choice between direct flights on DL or connecting via AA and UA, I'm pretty sure DL will win out. Also, G4 and F9 don't have daily flights and their schedules are not consistent (routes come and go frequently). They are primarily targeted towards leisure travelers and a fair amount of their routes (particularly on F9) are seasonal. As such, I truly find it hard to believe they are a serious threat. No doubt, they will impact the yields on Y seats, but given the reasons I just stated, will it be overwhelming? I'm not so convinced.

So all in all, WN is the only significant obstacle to a DL focus city in AUS, and honestly, I don't have a good explanation of how DL would overcome that. That being said, I don't think they necessarily need to knock off WN as the leading carrier (unless in the unlikely event they decide to go full hub mode in AUS), but simply follow the strategy of RDU and CVG and provide routes to the most popular non-hub/focus city destinations plus add a TATL flight to AMS.

Again, who knows what will happen. Certainly, DL does not need a presence in Texas to thrive, they are doing more than just fine. However, of the US3's biggest holes in their respective networks (UA in the Southeast, AA in the Mountain states/Northwest and DL in Texas), I'd argue anyday that DL's is the most significant, as Texas is the second largest state in the union and the second largest state economy. AUS may be their last chance to gain some sort of a foothold in Texas. And if you think about it, it is the perfect place in Texas for them to set up an operation; a vibrant city that is among the fastest growing markets in the country with young professionals (DL touts itself as becoming the airline of choice among young professionals).

I'd really love to hear DL's thoughts on their lack of a presence in Texas (similar to how United addressed their lack of a SE hub), if anyone has some link to where they discuss that, please share it here.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:12 am

ADrum23 wrote:
I'd really love to hear DL's thoughts on their lack of a presence in Texas (similar to how United addressed their lack of a SE hub), if anyone has some link to where they discuss that, please share it here.


DL has already tried to make Texas work, and they lost money in DFW for 25 years...

Here is a quote from Ed Bastian, from literally 2 months ago: "We talk about Delta, one of the things that we don't have at Delta is we don't have a Texas presence, right, in a meaningful way, but we've got Mexico, right. So that's – Mexico is our Texas in a certain sort of way and we're going to look to optimize it"

https://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/do ... script.pdf

You can't get more clear than that....
DL DM, AA Gold in 2018, Visited 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, DXB, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH
 
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cvgComair
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:31 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I'd really love to hear DL's thoughts on their lack of a presence in Texas (similar to how United addressed their lack of a SE hub), if anyone has some link to where they discuss that, please share it here.


DL has already tried to make Texas work, and they lost money in DFW for 25 years...

Here is a quote from Ed Bastian, from literally 2 months ago: "We talk about Delta, one of the things that we don't have at Delta is we don't have a Texas presence, right, in a meaningful way, but we've got Mexico, right. So that's – Mexico is our Texas in a certain sort of way and we're going to look to optimize it"

https://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/do ... script.pdf

You can't get more clear than that....

:checkmark: . I don't see the need for a DL presence in Texas, the only thing they are missing is intra-Texas, which is not a "highly lucrative" market and is adequately covered by AA/UA/WN. There are not many flows that SLC/ATL + the AM partnership/MEX don't already cover. Perhaps there will be a few PTP routes from AUS, but I don't even see AUS getting close to the size of RDU. It's already a low-cost market with well established legacy carriers. DL only flies to 3 of the top 10 routes from AUS (and all 3 routes have at least two other competitors), the rest are UA/AA/WN hubs. At this point, DL is just playing catch-up to other carriers in AUS, AA/UA/WN all carry more pax than DL.
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ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:37 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I'd really love to hear DL's thoughts on their lack of a presence in Texas (similar to how United addressed their lack of a SE hub), if anyone has some link to where they discuss that, please share it here.


Here is a quote from Ed Bastian, from literally 2 months ago: "We talk about Delta, one of the things that we don't have at Delta is we don't have a Texas presence, right, in a meaningful way, but we've got Mexico, right. So that's – Mexico is our Texas in a certain sort of way and we're going to look to optimize it"

https://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/do ... script.pdf

You can't get more clear than that....


I’d be interested to know what he means by that, because at first glance, that makes no sense.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:49 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I'd really love to hear DL's thoughts on their lack of a presence in Texas (similar to how United addressed their lack of a SE hub), if anyone has some link to where they discuss that, please share it here.


Here is a quote from Ed Bastian, from literally 2 months ago: "We talk about Delta, one of the things that we don't have at Delta is we don't have a Texas presence, right, in a meaningful way, but we've got Mexico, right. So that's – Mexico is our Texas in a certain sort of way and we're going to look to optimize it"

https://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/do ... script.pdf

You can't get more clear than that....


I’d be interested to know what he means by that, because at first glance, that makes no sense.


What was unclear? And remember, investors aren't going to be happy if Delta decides to jump into a bloodbath in AUS, you saw what happened when UA told investors it wanted to increase capacity at IAH, DEN, and ORD...
DL DM, AA Gold in 2018, Visited 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, DXB, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH
 
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william
Posts: 2833
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:04 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I'd really love to hear DL's thoughts on their lack of a presence in Texas (similar to how United addressed their lack of a SE hub), if anyone has some link to where they discuss that, please share it here.


Here is a quote from Ed Bastian, from literally 2 months ago: "We talk about Delta, one of the things that we don't have at Delta is we don't have a Texas presence, right, in a meaningful way, but we've got Mexico, right. So that's – Mexico is our Texas in a certain sort of way and we're going to look to optimize it"

https://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/do ... script.pdf

You can't get more clear than that....


I’d be interested to know what he means by that, because at first glance, that makes no sense.


I don’t understand that either. IMO, Mr Bastion was misdirecting info here.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:12 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Here is a quote from Ed Bastian, from literally 2 months ago: "We talk about Delta, one of the things that we don't have at Delta is we don't have a Texas presence, right, in a meaningful way, but we've got Mexico, right. So that's – Mexico is our Texas in a certain sort of way and we're going to look to optimize it"

https://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/do ... script.pdf

You can't get more clear than that....


I’d be interested to know what he means by that, because at first glance, that makes no sense.


What was unclear? And remember, investors aren't going to be happy if Delta decides to jump into a bloodbath in AUS, you saw what happened when UA told investors it wanted to increase capacity at IAH, DEN, and ORD...


Is he referring to Mexico as a Latin America hub? Having a presence in Mexico doesn’t help domestic traffic in Texas. Idk.

Anyway, it’s no use carrying on this conversation. We will have to agree to disagree here. Who knows what DL has planned for AUS, for all we know, they could be planning nothing.

Admittingly, part of my persistence on this stems from my frustration that I can’t book anything direct but WN on AUS-BNA when I head there Memorial Day weekend. I’d rather fly a legacy than WN.
 
JDawgboy512
Posts: 62
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:06 pm

Well it's really hopping in this thread so let me go ahead and throw in a little more conjecture regarding the master plan. This info is from another forum but apparently planners are really wanting to push building the south terminal rather than adding piers to Barbara Jordan. They are also looking at future runway additions including the possibility of two 10,000 ft runways east of the current 9,000 ft runway.

I know everyone is throwing DL's interest in Austin under the bus and okay fine, for now let's just put that aside. But nobody can deny the kind of growth AUS is experiencing surpassing all of the projections. It's starting to look more and more likely that ABIA's new master plan is going to be MASSIVE. So obviously airlines are seriously looking at Austin for expansion or we wouldn't be talking about such a large master plan. So all of this AUS will be nothing more than a secondary thought and Texas has DAL and HOU, so no point in a 3rd, well guess what? Some of the chatter going around is that ABIA could rival those ports. And fact is none of us know what Delta is going to do. We also have no clue on what other carrier's are in talks with the city and why there is a need to seriously consider a massive expansion that would make the current port look tiny in comparison.

Just some food for thought.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:44 pm

JDawgboy512 wrote:
Well it's really hopping in this thread so let me go ahead and throw in a little more conjecture regarding the master plan. This info is from another forum but apparently planners are really wanting to push building the south terminal rather than adding piers to Barbara Jordan. They are also looking at future runway additions including the possibility of two 10,000 ft runways east of the current 9,000 ft runway.


Great, that's what a master plan is supposed to account for. If you look at most similar airports master plans I'm sure you will see plans for additional runways as well.... AUS's current runway infrastructure can handle 44mil pax per year, so any additional runways are at least a decade or more away regardless of whether an airline decides to build up a hub in the next few years.

JDawgboy512 wrote:
So obviously airlines are seriously looking at Austin for expansion or we wouldn't be talking about such a large master plan.

Airlines are obviously looking at AUS, I don't think anyones gonna debate that, the metro population and economy are booming. But using the size of a master plan is an odd metric, master plans are in theory supposed to be large, so they can accommodate long-term growth and development 30-50 years down the line.

JDawgboy512 wrote:

So all of this AUS will be nothing more than a secondary thought and Texas has DAL and HOU, so no point in a 3rd, well guess what? Some of the chatter going around is that ABIA could rival those ports. And fact is none of us know what Delta is going to do. We also have no clue on what other carrier's are in talks with the city and why there is a need to seriously consider a massive expansion that would make the current port look tiny in comparison.

I wouldn't be surprised if AUS grew larger than DAL, but DFW and IAH are a different story.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
DL DM, AA Gold in 2018, Visited 2018: AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, DXB, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, ZRH
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 290
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:45 pm

AUS would make a dream mid america hub for B6. I hope Delta stays far away from it, will be rough enough as is.
 
JDawgboy512
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:39 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:26 am

Midwestindy wrote:
JDawgboy512 wrote:
Well it's really hopping in this thread so let me go ahead and throw in a little more conjecture regarding the master plan. This info is from another forum but apparently planners are really wanting to push building the south terminal rather than adding piers to Barbara Jordan. They are also looking at future runway additions including the possibility of two 10,000 ft runways east of the current 9,000 ft runway.


Great, that's what a master plan is supposed to account for. If you look at most similar airports master plans I'm sure you will see plans for additional runways as well.... AUS's current runway infrastructure can handle 44mil pax per year, so any additional runways are at least a decade or more away regardless of whether an airline decides to build up a hub in the next few years.

JDawgboy512 wrote:
So obviously airlines are seriously looking at Austin for expansion or we wouldn't be talking about such a large master plan.

Airlines are obviously looking at AUS, I don't think anyones gonna debate that, the metro population and economy are booming. But using the size of a master plan is an odd metric, master plans are in theory supposed to be large, so they can accommodate long-term growth and development 30-50 years down the line.

JDawgboy512 wrote:

So all of this AUS will be nothing more than a secondary thought and Texas has DAL and HOU, so no point in a 3rd, well guess what? Some of the chatter going around is that ABIA could rival those ports. And fact is none of us know what Delta is going to do. We also have no clue on what other carrier's are in talks with the city and why there is a need to seriously consider a massive expansion that would make the current port look tiny in comparison.

I wouldn't be surprised if AUS grew larger than DAL, but DFW and IAH are a different story.



Your forgetting that we had/have a master plan but it's being torn up because despite its ultimate build out of over 100-125 gates, it no longer considered adequate. I'm quite aware that airports have master plans.

Also it's obvious that master plans are long term and may not be what ultimately is built but they are meant to be a guide.

Most other airports that are of similar size are not growing as fast as AUS.

It's become quite apparent that the next expansion will begin immediately after the current expansion is complete. It will be very interesting to see how the next expansion is planned as well as how large.
 
JDawgboy512
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:39 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:32 am

CobaltScar wrote:
AUS would make a dream mid america hub for B6. I hope Delta stays far away from it, will be rough enough as is.


I also thought the same about B6.
We've heard rumors that JetBlue was considering Austin as some sort of hub over the years but nothing ever came of it. They haven't added any flights from here in awhile either. Not really sure what Jetblue's plans are for Austin or if they are even interested in expanding here.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:39 am

JDawgboy512 wrote:
Well it's really hopping in this thread so let me go ahead and throw in a little more conjecture regarding the master plan. This info is from another forum but apparently planners are really wanting to push building the south terminal rather than adding piers to Barbara Jordan. They are also looking at future runway additions including the possibility of two 10,000 ft runways east of the current 9,000 ft runway.

I know everyone is throwing DL's interest in Austin under the bus and okay fine, for now let's just put that aside. But nobody can deny the kind of growth AUS is experiencing surpassing all of the projections. It's starting to look more and more likely that ABIA's new master plan is going to be MASSIVE. So obviously airlines are seriously looking at Austin for expansion or we wouldn't be talking about such a large master plan. So all of this AUS will be nothing more than a secondary thought and Texas has DAL and HOU, so no point in a 3rd, well guess what? Some of the chatter going around is that ABIA could rival those ports. And fact is none of us know what Delta is going to do. We also have no clue on what other carrier's are in talks with the city and why there is a need to seriously consider a massive expansion that would make the current port look tiny in comparison.

Just some food for thought.


1. Two 10,000 foot runways east of the current one? Where are they going to put them? They have a huge prison east of there and what appears to be a creek south of there. Pretty tight if you ask me. A better place for a third runway (they will likely only need one more in the next planning period) would just east of the current 12,000 ft runway.

2. Certainly, AUS will continue to grow, but it will be a long, and I repeat, a LONG time before it reaches IAH and DFW levels, unless in the unlikely event some carrier decides to hub the airport.

3. Gate wise, the best thing to do would be to simply start building new island concourses to the south of the current terminal with an automated people mover (a la ATL). No need for a second full terminal on the south side of the property...... yet.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:43 am

JDawgboy512 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
JDawgboy512 wrote:
Well it's really hopping in this thread so let me go ahead and throw in a little more conjecture regarding the master plan. This info is from another forum but apparently planners are really wanting to push building the south terminal rather than adding piers to Barbara Jordan. They are also looking at future runway additions including the possibility of two 10,000 ft runways east of the current 9,000 ft runway.


Great, that's what a master plan is supposed to account for. If you look at most similar airports master plans I'm sure you will see plans for additional runways as well.... AUS's current runway infrastructure can handle 44mil pax per year, so any additional runways are at least a decade or more away regardless of whether an airline decides to build up a hub in the next few years.

JDawgboy512 wrote:
So obviously airlines are seriously looking at Austin for expansion or we wouldn't be talking about such a large master plan.

Airlines are obviously looking at AUS, I don't think anyones gonna debate that, the metro population and economy are booming. But using the size of a master plan is an odd metric, master plans are in theory supposed to be large, so they can accommodate long-term growth and development 30-50 years down the line.

JDawgboy512 wrote:

So all of this AUS will be nothing more than a secondary thought and Texas has DAL and HOU, so no point in a 3rd, well guess what? Some of the chatter going around is that ABIA could rival those ports. And fact is none of us know what Delta is going to do. We also have no clue on what other carrier's are in talks with the city and why there is a need to seriously consider a massive expansion that would make the current port look tiny in comparison.

I wouldn't be surprised if AUS grew larger than DAL, but DFW and IAH are a different story.



Your forgetting that we had/have a master plan but it's being torn up because despite its ultimate build out of over 100-125 gates, it no longer considered adequate. I'm quite aware that airports have master plans.

Also it's obvious that master plans are long term and may not be what ultimately is built but they are meant to be a guide.

Most other airports that are of similar size are not growing as fast as AUS.

It's become quite apparent that the next expansion will begin immediately after the current expansion is complete. It will be very interesting to see how the next expansion is planned as well as how large.


100-125 gates not adequate? That is almost within spitting distance of DFW (they have 165 gates). How do they figure they will need that many gates unless some carrier decides to hub the airport?
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:51 am

Midwestindy wrote:
AUS's current runway infrastructure can handle 44mil pax per year, so any additional runways are at least a decade or more away regardless of whether an airline decides to build up a hub in the next few years.


While I agree a third runway is not an immediate need (though some of the taxiways could use some reconstruction/reconfiguration, particularly on the west runway), I am curious as to where you got the 44 million pax number as a triggering point for additional runways. There are a fair amount of largish airports in the US that are in the 20-40 million range that have more than 2 runways and have built new ones in response to growth, in fact, nearby IAH has 5 runways and it handles less than 44 million pax. I think it will be a bit sooner than that when AUS needs (or more appropriately, will need to start planning for) a third runway, but only one more runway will be needed IMO.
 
JDawgboy512
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:39 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:59 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
JDawgboy512 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Great, that's what a master plan is supposed to account for. If you look at most similar airports master plans I'm sure you will see plans for additional runways as well.... AUS's current runway infrastructure can handle 44mil pax per year, so any additional runways are at least a decade or more away regardless of whether an airline decides to build up a hub in the next few years.


Airlines are obviously looking at AUS, I don't think anyones gonna debate that, the metro population and economy are booming. But using the size of a master plan is an odd metric, master plans are in theory supposed to be large, so they can accommodate long-term growth and development 30-50 years down the line.


I wouldn't be surprised if AUS grew larger than DAL, but DFW and IAH are a different story.



Your forgetting that we had/have a master plan but it's being torn up because despite its ultimate build out of over 100-125 gates, it no longer considered adequate. I'm quite aware that airports have master plans.

Also it's obvious that master plans are long term and may not be what ultimately is built but they are meant to be a guide.

Most other airports that are of similar size are not growing as fast as AUS.

It's become quite apparent that the next expansion will begin immediately after the current expansion is complete. It will be very interesting to see how the next expansion is planned as well as how large.


100-125 gates not adequate? That is almost within spitting distance of DFW (they have 165 gates). How do they figure they will need that many gates unless some carrier decides to hub the airport?



That's what is so interesting about this new master plan. Airport officials and city leaders decided over a year ago that the current master plan, which in itself seemed like an impressive plan with the ultimate build out scenario of over 100+ gates was no longer going to be able to keep up with demand. Now this may simply mean that they want to change how the terminal layout will be compared with the previous options in the current/soon to be former master plan. It's not clear whether the amount of gates originally proposed will change.

As far as the runway scenario options, yes the two runways would be east of the current 9,000 foot runway which would mean not only removing the prison facility but would also require significant ground work including tunneling SH 130 under one of the runways. Again this is just one possible scenario that they are looking at. There are I believe 12 options with different runway additions alignments, several with just one extra runway, others up to 3 new runways. It is interesting though that most do have at least one runway east of the 9,000 foot one.


And that's the question really, is if a carrier decides to do a hub or if we are simply expecting an increasing number of new carrier additions along with current carrier route additions? How much of an additional expansion are they considering once this one is complete and how the new timeline will be implemented?
 
khowaga
Posts: 213
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:05 pm

The 44 million number (capacity of the two existing runways) came from a port insider on another forum. I suppose this is all for long-term growth, but it seems like the urgency would be terminal space rather than runway - but if we're planning for 50 years out having a plan is better than not (*cough*Heathrow*cough).
 
tphuang
Posts: 2094
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:15 pm

JDawgboy512 wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
AUS would make a dream mid america hub for B6. I hope Delta stays far away from it, will be rough enough as is.


I also thought the same about B6.
We've heard rumors that JetBlue was considering Austin as some sort of hub over the years but nothing ever came of it. They haven't added any flights from here in awhile either. Not really sure what Jetblue's plans are for Austin or if they are even interested in expanding here.


I took a hard look at how B6 could build Austin into a middle of the country focus city a while back and wasn't really sure how they could get there. They'd have to first solidify flights from existing focus cities, so 3 daily to JFK, 2 to BOS, 2 to MCO, 2 to FLL, 2 to LA area airport. And then probably make it some kind of gateway to Mexico/Central America gateway with 2 daily flights to MEX, 1 to CUN and maybe 2 to 3 flights to other destinations. After that, they could possibly add 1 to EWR, 1 to IAD and 2 to SFO. SFO would be really tough given competition from UA/AS/WN. Maybe on top of that, they could add 1 daily to MSY and LAS, but those would both be very low yielding and running into WN on both ends. Anything beyond that would be really difficult against existing competition.
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