mjoelnir
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:36 am

That the 777X will reach much more than 400 frames, is very much in doubt. The 777-300ER won against the A340-600 by being lighter and more full efficient. There are no similar possibilities for the 777-8/9. There are several slightly smaller competitors out there, the A350 and 787. The 777-8/9 will be bigger and heavier than its competition. It will be heavier per passenger or metric ton of freight. The believe that the engines will be the deciding factor is just a believe, the advantages will flow to other engines, if they will be that much better.
Non of the here named US airlines, going for frequency instead of size, needs anything bigger than the 787 or A350 in the future. The downsizing from the 747-400 has happened. The 747-400 has been replaced by smaller frames in the USA. I do not see many big buyers on the horizon in other countries either, who will need the 777-8/9, at most buying a few of them. The most likely ones have ordered it already. It will not be all bad for Boeing, they will sell 787 instead.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:53 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Indonesia was a Dutch colony, relations between Indonesia and the Netherlands are important, even Garuda Indonesia its main market in Europe is Amsterdam, the demand is very large and if it needs capacity the Boeing 777-8X could fly without problems Amsterdam - Jakarta - Depansar, even may include Surabaya



Again, Jakarta and Denpasar are already within range of existing types in the KLM fleet, including the A330-200, 777-200ER, 777-300ER, 747-400 and 787-9. They could have started direct flights at any point in the past 15 years, but they didn't.

The 777-8X is overweight compared to the A350 or 787. If the route can be done by the A350s or larger 787s that are already in the fleet, then the 777-8X is as good as out of the equation.
 
itchief
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:59 pm

RayChuang wrote:
Do not expect a rush of 777-8 and 777-9 orders until after 2020, when the 777-300ER replacement cycle begins. I think Airbus is thinking that way also, hence the emphasis on A350XWB-900 sales first.


There are 2 threads talking about EK and CX starting to retire some 77W's in 2018. They cycle is slowly starting. I am sure Boeing knows what the retirement cycle is and is planning for the same.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:26 pm

scbriml wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I think Thai Airways needs Boeing 777-9X, there are high demand destinations like Munich, Zurich and Scandinavia where capacity is needed


High demand yes, but low (borderline very low) yield. That's why their second LHR flight is now operated by A359 - less seats and significantly lower operating costs will help to push up yields.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
British Airways needs a real Jumbo for its high-demand destinations and the Boeing 777X is the key


BA already has a young fleet of A380s, that's their "real jumbo" for high-demand destinations for the next 20+ years. They also have the A350-1000 coming and a shedload of A350 options. I don't see the need for the 779 at BA and they have no routes that require the 778.


The second daily LHR flight back to the B77W, the A359 is perfect for missions like Rome, Milan or Brussels, but the demand if the BKK-LHR route has increased significantly in recent years and Thai maintained its two daily flights throughout the year, the clear demand that the Boeing 777-9X is ideal for its operations in London, Paris, Germany, Zurich & Scandinavia where the market grows and grows, including Lufthansa in the winter season use its Airbus A380-800 and with the arrival of the Airbus A350-900 can return to Munich-Bangkok, even the Boeing 777-9X is ideal for its operations in Sydney or its high-demand destinations in Japan such as Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya

British Airways operated 56 Boeing 747-400, and they really have very few A380s and they vary by season, London Heathrow operations are in high demand and there are many destinations such as Johannesburg, Cape Town, New York, Miami, Washington, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Vancouver, Toronto, Hong Kong, Beijing, Delhi, Mumbai and many more! Where they really need a real jumbo, most of these routes can be easily operated by two Boeing 777-9X, and the London to Australia market is extremely large as both Qantas and British must work together and the Boeing 777-8X is perfect to achieve this
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
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scbriml
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:11 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
The second daily LHR flight back to the B77W


Not sure what you're saying here, TG916 is still being operated by A359.

Regarding BA's fleet - you need to read what BA says about it in their own reports. They have their "real jumbo", it's the A380.
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StTim
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:34 am

The 777X is not a nailed on replacement for operators of the 777W. ye they may pick up some where the operator wants growth and can afford to carry the extra weight on other days - alternatively if they do not need growth there are now other much more efficient alternatives.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:01 pm

scbriml wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
The second daily LHR flight back to the B77W


Not sure what you're saying here, TG916 is still being operated by A359.

Regarding BA's fleet - you need to read what BA says about it in their own reports. They have their "real jumbo", it's the A380.


Since February 1 TG916 returns the B77W to operate the second daily flight to Bangkok, in fact the change to A359 was to maintain the 2 daily flights throughout the year, in low season the TG916 flight was 5 or 6 times per

The A380 is a jumbo that hurts, will never have the glory of the Boeing 747
The Boeing 777-9x meets the efficiency and capacity requirements for airlines
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
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scbriml
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:07 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
The A380 is a jumbo that hurts, will never have the glory of the Boeing 747


Ah, now we see. What is the unit of measurement for "glory"?
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Jayafe
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:16 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
The Boeing 777-9x meets the efficiency and capacity requirements for airlines


I guess that's the reason why everybody is ordering it. Oh wait...
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:01 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I think Thai Airways needs Boeing 777-9X, there are high demand destinations like Munich, Zurich and Scandinavia where capacity is needed


High demand yes, but low (borderline very low) yield. That's why their second LHR flight is now operated by A359 - less seats and significantly lower operating costs will help to push up yields.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
British Airways needs a real Jumbo for its high-demand destinations and the Boeing 777X is the key


BA already has a young fleet of A380s, that's their "real jumbo" for high-demand destinations for the next 20+ years. They also have the A350-1000 coming and a shedload of A350 options. I don't see the need for the 779 at BA and they have no routes that require the 778.



British Airways operated 56 Boeing 747-400, and they really have very few A380s and they vary by season,


Why are we assuming that BA/IAG wants to replace all that 747 capacity one-for-one, instead of doing the smart thing by cutting capacity and protecting their yields? Even if BA can fill up 777x's, would Iberia/Aer Lingus/Level etc want any? Because that'd be necessary for IAG to order them.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:26 pm

mig17 wrote:
The 777-X is to the A350 what the A330NEO is to the 787. A direct market competitor with an advantage for the newer generation (A350/787). Airlines with 787 will not need A330NEO and airlines with A350 will not need 77X. The 77X buniness case is to equiped airlines like Eva Air who have a big curent 777 fleet and not yet ordered any A350. The same thing is happening with Delta and the A330NEO against the 787.

And yet at least one customer, LH, already has both on order.

As mentioned above, we're early on in the cycle. Airlines are very good at figuring out what airplanes do each job the best. We see fleets that have both 738 and A321 happily co-existing. There's lots of fleets that have both 787 and A350. Time will tell if airlines go with both A350 and 777X. It won't surprise me to see more than just LH having both A350 and 777X.
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cledaybuck
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
mig17 wrote:
The 777-X is to the A350 what the A330NEO is to the 787. A direct market competitor with an advantage for the newer generation (A350/787). Airlines with 787 will not need A330NEO and airlines with A350 will not need 77X. The 77X buniness case is to equiped airlines like Eva Air who have a big curent 777 fleet and not yet ordered any A350. The same thing is happening with Delta and the A330NEO against the 787.

And yet at least one customer, LH, already has both on order.

As mentioned above, we're early on in the cycle. Airlines are very good at figuring out what airplanes do each job the best. We see fleets that have both 738 and A321 happily co-existing. There's lots of fleets that have both 787 and A350. Time will tell if airlines go with both A350 and 777X. It won't surprise me to see more than just LH having both A350 and 777X.
Don't CX, SQ, EY, and QR also have both the A350 and 777X on order?
 
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Polot
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
mig17 wrote:
The 777-X is to the A350 what the A330NEO is to the 787. A direct market competitor with an advantage for the newer generation (A350/787). Airlines with 787 will not need A330NEO and airlines with A350 will not need 77X. The 77X buniness case is to equiped airlines like Eva Air who have a big curent 777 fleet and not yet ordered any A350. The same thing is happening with Delta and the A330NEO against the 787.

And yet at least one customer, LH, already has both on order.

As does QR, EY, SQ, and CX. That is ~71% of all known 777X customers (there is also one unknown order). EK and ANA are the only 2 known 777X customers without A350s on order.

3 of those 5 A350/777X customers have A350-1000s on order too (LH and SQ being the exceptions).
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:10 pm

I'm of the opinion that the 777X will do well, but not spectacularly well, there is simply so much more competition from below than what the 77W had, and although not much larger than the 77W, it is still a very large aircraft and we're in an era where the largest aircraft are not the hottest commodities.

I agree with many of the likely customers, there will be a fair number, albeit I don't see too many airlines ordering them in large numbers (for example more than 30), outside the ME3 the numbers per airline are quite small.

I'll offer an opinion for several airlines though:

TG: I think the 779 would be best as a long term A380 replacement, given that they operate 9ab 777s the A35K could slot in nicely, and longer term there's no disadvantage to adding more of any 787 or A350 which gives them a much leaner fleet than at present, which is helpful given their predicament against the ME3 in particular.

BA: Maybe, on paper it seems a shoo-in, but we've not seen so much enthusiasm, at least publicly from IAG, but despite the slot situation at LHR BA has shown no hesitation in flying smaller aircraft even on 'hub to hub' routes, so it's not unreasonable to suggest more 787s and A350s won't take over from the 744s whose replacements haven't been decided. Supposedly they want more A380s at the right price but that rumour's been around for a while and no action has been taken.

US3: Not the biggest fans (pun intended) of large aircraft, but AA probably will... eventually. DL are very unlikely to and UA, who knows?

AF: I expect them to, but wonder whether the lower risk of 787s and A350s will see them come in in larger numbers, so some 77Ws will be replaced by them. AF does have very dense aircraft and nothing else will come close to the 777X from what is on offer now.

China's big 3: Should do, but maybe not for a while. There are many new 77Ws already there.

A problem I see is that for many airlines (some I've just mentioned) there is a lot of competition already from the ME3 or else from LCCs, and I think 787s and A350s are better suited for competing: less risk, easier to manage yields, easier to rehome if the worst comes to the worst and more advantages. Against that you have the 777X's lower CASM, but that's only worth it if you're sure you're getting the loads and yields.
 
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PW100
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:53 pm

scbriml wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
The A380 is a jumbo that hurts, will never have the glory of the Boeing 747


Ah, now we see. What is the unit of measurement for "glory"?


You are reading this wrong . . . the A380 is hurting certain poster's pride and glory . . . impossible to quantify that in terms of measurement units:-)
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mig17
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:14 pm

Polot wrote:
Revelation wrote:
mig17 wrote:
The 777-X is to the A350 what the A330NEO is to the 787. A direct market competitor with an advantage for the newer generation (A350/787). Airlines with 787 will not need A330NEO and airlines with A350 will not need 77X. The 77X buniness case is to equiped airlines like Eva Air who have a big curent 777 fleet and not yet ordered any A350. The same thing is happening with Delta and the A330NEO against the 787.

And yet at least one customer, LH, already has both on order.

As does QR, EY, SQ, and CX. That is ~71% of all known 777X customers (there is also one unknown order). EK and ANA are the only 2 known 777X customers without A350s on order.

3 of those 5 A350/777X customers have A350-1000s on order too (LH and SQ being the exceptions).

CX & SQ are the only ones I realy find odd. I don't count the middle east for "political" reason. And LH has puts it's eggs in different baskets before (even if sometimes they wich they had not ...). ANA exemple "goes my way".

But for now, you don't have enough 77X customers to realy make a stats. Otherwise you could aldready say that most of the A350 customers did not went for the 77X ^^.

The thing is that the 77W was by far the best thing to fly long range above 5000 NM in the mid 2000s even with some smaller 777 versions around. The only other widebodie facing him at that time was the A333 for shorter flights. So the 77W flew missions that non existing smaller plane could have done better.
Now, we have those smaller planes able to go far flying. And the 779 is even bigger than the 77W is. A part of the market is already going to the 359 or 789. Plus, the 77W also have a fitting replacement, the A35K which like the 779 is not selling so well. And if we look to VLA, it's worst.

So yes, the 77W end of cycle isn't fully there yet, but part of it will go for smaller planes and the direct replacement battle between 779 and A35K may be influenced by commonality in favor of the latest because of existing A359 fleets. In the end, it is the financial profit margin ratio per flight which will decide so even if the 779 could means more profits, I am not convinced it will bring better yields.
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Polot
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:42 pm

mig17 wrote:
CX & SQ are the only ones I realy find odd. I don't count the middle east for "political" reason. And LH has puts it's eggs in different baskets before (even if sometimes they wich they had not ...). ANA exemple "goes my way".

SQ's order makes sense. They are likely to going to go 10Y with the 777X, so that is the only plane available (other than the A380 of course) if they want to grow their 77W flights, as the A350-1000 would seat a similar amount as their 77Ws. SQ was interested in possible A350-1100 or 777-10 stretches.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:53 pm

I agree with lots of posters that the 777-9X appeared a bit early in the cycle. It's really a 777-300ER + growth aircraft, and the 777-300ER fleet is still so young. That said, it has done much better than I would have expected against the A350-1000, given that it's early days for both.

I expected BA to be a shoo-in, but it looks like they are standardizing on Airbus at the big end for now. If they embark on a high-growth path they may still need some 777-9s in the mid-2020s, but there's no reason to order so far out.

I think we will see a China order sooner rather than later. Air China will not be motivated to get a full service life out of the 747-8, other carriers could use them too, and the order would be a nice bright shiny object for President Xi to wave in front of President Trump's nose.

I would expect AF/KLM eventually, but not until the early 2020s.

Someone from India will need a few. Whether that's the creaking Air India or one of the other carriers, the international market ex-India will just keep growing. The 779 at around 440 pax is absolutely the perfect aircraft to fly Delhi-New York and Delhi-Toronto.

I don't expect Thai or other cost-sensitive airlines to be customers. They will favor the A350-1000 instead. The 777X will be more costly to buy and fly than the A350, and the operators who need it are legacies with heavy premium products who can use its extra payload range at the same passenger capacity for revenue.
 
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Slash787
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:22 pm

Saudia, Air NZ, Turkish and Qantas.
 
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par13del
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:28 pm

Qantas was one of the airlines in on the development of the original 777 and they ordered none, they survived and the a/c survived. If the 777X succeeds or fails it won't be because of Qantas.
 
tealnz
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:59 pm

Slash787 wrote:
Saudia, Air NZ, Turkish and Qantas.

778/779 won’t be an easy sell to NZ. A359 has to be favoured as the 77E replacement: it can comfortably do new Chicago, New York and Sao Paulo routes – at much lower weight and presumably lower cost than 77X. If NZ eventually decided they need more capacity on their 77W routes the A35K will then be the most obvious option for commonality reasons.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:07 pm

I'll throw in Jet Airways. Their 77W's were too large for their BRU operations, but now that they shifted these to AMS their 77W's are packed, even at 10 abreast Y. And I believe 9W's LHR operation are doing pretty well too.
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dubaiamman243
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:34 pm

I see Saudia joining the club
The next airline CEO :crossfingers:
 
Swadian
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:52 pm

The obsession on this site about replacement is getting old. Airlines do not replace aircraft one-for-one. Many 744 were/are being replaced by much smaller 789/A359 and some big 77W operators did not operate any VLA before 77W (EK, QR, TK, AA, CZ, MU, SU).

As the 779 will likely be the biggest passenger aircraft in production after the unpopular A380/748, it will probably get gradual orders over time after EIS, rather than any predicted "rush of orders" when 77Ws start needing replacement. A VLA order is a big investment for any airline and I agree that predicting the sales of a paper airplane at this point is too early.

CN3 and TK are continually hungry for capacity (remember, they think in terms of growth, not in terms of replacement) and are probably going to order down the road, SV, AI, SA, QF, BR, SU, TG, KE possibly as well, AA maybe further on, agree that IAG or AF-KL are unlikely.
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