I think KLM has no interest in the A321LR, because of slot constraints at AMS. I just don't see them using such a small aircraft on such a long flight with the few valuable slots at Amsterdam disappearing rather quick. They would probably rather use these on more profitable widebody flights, or even a high yielding shorthaul flight.
As for NEO vs. MAX, I am dead certain AF will go for the NEO and KLM for the MAX.
In their current fleet of 50 737NG's only 5 of them are 737-900 (non-ER).
It will be interesting what KLM will choose as a replacement for the 737-700. It fills the gap between the E190 and the 737-800.
The -900s are not really of any added value, because they are non -ER frames and thus exit limited to 188 seats (vs. 186 on their -800s)
The MAX10 will be of added value for sure, given it can seat more passengers.
Given that the main edge of the 321NEO over the MAX10 occurs at long range, short runways or otherwise performance restricted fields, this has no added value for KLM.
The longest route KLM 737s fly is 1790nm to TLV, which has a 3657m long runway.
With the MAX 10 range at 3210nm, this should offer no problem.
Furthermore AFKL ordering from both manufacturers brings other advantages:
- Better negotiating position on future deals
- Lower pilot retraining costs
- More simultaneous delivery slots
Regarding the -700s. KLM has just started negotiations with pilot union VNV for a new collaborative labour agreement. If they can get VNV to agree transferring more flights to KLM Cityhopper (as in replacing -700s to the E195E2) I think the -700 replacement has been sealed. If they are unable to do so, I think KLM will be one of the few - 7 MAX operators.
I could definitely see Air France going for the CSeries, as they have a relatively large A318/A319 fleet and if I am not mistaken Airbus will be actively helping BBD by marketing the CSeries to their customers (and they realize the A319NEO is dead)