• 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 12
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6276
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:02 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Sure, I agree the markets are different although the local markets were bigger 20 years ago than today still.

I'm not sure how this is relevant?

- Lower volumes today do not necessarily equate to lower yields - quality, not quantity, is what matters for profitable and sustainable tourism.
- Demand might have been stronger back then, but capacity has dropped more than demand has (KE with 1x daily jumbo, instead of 2x daily).

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ dropped down to just NRT in Japan, KIX has since restarted seasonally and HND has started.

So Japan, which sends the same amount of tourists here as Korea (approximately) has up to 3x daily flights, whereas Korea has just one.

This just proves my point that there is most definitely an opportunity for OZ and/or NZ to give KE some competition on the AKL - ICN route.

Cheers,

C.


And just perhaps then as you say that Quality over quantity is why KE have less capacity now than they did 15-20 years ago.

If 41000 people used the KE service, KE would offer 70000-75000 seats per year with a daily 748 for 3 months and a 4-5 weekly 77W for the other 9 months. I’m really not sure how many connections they get but only probably 60% of the seats are filled with Koreans visiting NZ then a few Kiwis who use KE to Korea and beyond.

Japan has between 7-13 flights a week, I can’t see HND last I looked for some months in 2018 and KIX is seasonal. Its maybe a case where more people visiting Japan use the non stop services? Or more Kiwis are on them to help fill them?
 
Kashmon
Posts: 634
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:08 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:24 am

planemanofnz wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
Of course, all the local Chinese councils/Governments are the ones propping up the flights like CDU/XIY/SZX/CKG

C.


That is cute

but BLR is Asia's Silicon Valley

and while its economy may overtake HKG, it will likely never have the level of business traffic that HKG has
In fact no city in the world beats HKG in terms of % capacity Business and First Class
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:31 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
If 41000 people used the KE service, KE would offer 70000-75000 seats per year with a daily 748 for 3 months and a 4-5 weekly 77W for the other 9 months. I’m really not sure how many connections they get but only probably 60% of the seats are filled with Koreans visiting NZ then a few Kiwis who use KE to Korea and beyond.

That is only one-way (Koreans to New Zealand) - there were also 33,000 New Zealanders who visited Korea, last year (not just "a few Kiwis").

See: https://kto.visitkorea.or.kr/eng/touris ... kto#search.

The yield on KE's service to AKL (as demonstrated by the use of heavier planes, like the 748 and 77W, and not the 772) is also supported by:

- FTAs and strong trade demand supporting high-yielding cargo (e.g. Samsung Healthcare).
- Korea not having Chinese-level pricing pressures (e.g. AKL-CKG on GS for ~NZD 500 RT).
- The fact that two-way tourism is growing - Koreans by ~8-9%, and New Zealanders by ~5%.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:44 am

Kashmon wrote:
... while its economy may overtake HKG, it will likely never have the level of business traffic that HKG has

Ugh, we're talking about the sustainability of a 3x weekly service on HU to SZX - not matching the present 5x daily services to HKG (CX/HX/NZ).

:roll:

Kashmon wrote:
BLR is Asia's Silicon Valley

Debatable and inconclusive - people say BLR, SZX and TLV - the point is that SZX is moving up the value chain, which will support any AKL flight.

Cheers,

C.
 
Deepinsider
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:36 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:06 am

How times change! CHINA is the big one, twenty years ago we didn't go there, and
they didn't come here. Similarly, it's the same for travelers in Japan and Korea re China.
For AirNZ, connections into China are pretty well served so far with their own flights,
and the SIN and HKG partners, (who also have really suitable onward links to UK,
Europe, etc.... which would negate that part of a new service back to Korea.
High risk! ORD sounds better.)
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:56 am

Deepinsider wrote:
SIN and HKG ... suitable links to UK ... would negate that part of a new service back to Korea

Deepinsider wrote:
High risk!

Risky, because of ... European connections already being catered to, through SIN? :lol:

Have you reviewed all of the figures and trends on O&D demand and potential for ICN?

Deepinsider wrote:
ORD sounds better

Quite a bold statement to make, with no substance (facts or figures) to back it up, at all.

It is not a zero-sum game - NZ can have both ORD and ICN, but IMO, ORD carries risk:

- ORD is significantly further away than ICN, making it costlier to run (important, as oil is rising) and more demanding from a utilization perspective.
- The US is growing, but people are picking the East Coast for transfers (LAX and SFO (+~30% y/y)), and ditching in-land airports (IAH (-~7% y/y)).
- Between 2016 - 2017, NZ's Asia revenue declined by ~6%, while its North America revenue declined by double that, or ~12% (~NZD 100 million).
- At ~16 - 17 hours, people could view ORD - AKL as simply too long to endure in one seat, whereas IAH - AKL is shorter and a bit more bearable.
- If QF launches BNE - ORD with one of its new 789s in the next few months or so, as has been predicted, ORD might not be as attractive to NZ.
- The US DOT may soon approve the AA - QF JV, affecting AA's AKL presence (e.g. a year-round flight, which puts pressure on any NZ ORD flight).

I would also add that O&D traffic to Illinois seems to be questionable, based on it:

- Being behind the likes of Washington, Florida and Colorado, and just above Hawaii.
- Having the slowest growth rate in 2017 of any of the top 7 US states for visitors here.

Visitor arrivals from South Korea to New Zealand in 2017 even topped those from Illinois, New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin and Connecticut (the main source markets for any ORD flight) combined.

See: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... ember-2017.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
Posts: 914
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:40 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Sure, I agree the markets are different although the local markets were bigger 20 years ago than today still.

I'm not sure how this is relevant?

- Lower volumes today do not necessarily equate to lower yields - quality, not quantity, is what matters for profitable and sustainable tourism.
- Demand might have been stronger back then, but capacity has dropped more than demand has (KE with 1x daily jumbo, instead of 2x daily).

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ dropped down to just NRT in Japan, KIX has since restarted seasonally and HND has started.

So Japan, which sends the same amount of tourists here as Korea (approximately) has up to 3x daily flights, whereas Korea has just one.

This just proves my point that there is most definitely an opportunity for OZ and/or NZ to give KE some competition on the AKL - ICN route.

Cheers,

C.


Agreed fully. Opportunity exists in Korea. Also agree with above comments re CTU and SZX.
Plane mad!
 
PA515
Posts: 1362
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:01 pm

Three more Air NZ ATR 72-500s have recently been listed For Sale.
http://www.myairlease.com/available/ava ... _lease_ATR

ZK-MCB (msn 598) --- available Jun 2018
ZK-MCU (msn 632) --- available Jul 2018
ZK-MCY (msn 703) --- available Nov 2018

ZK-MCA and ZK-MCW have gone to Novoair of Bangladesh.

Another one should leave the fleet before 30 Jun 2019 and the last five between 01 Jul 2019 and 30 Jun 2020.

The next two ATR 72-600s are for delivery before the 30 Jun 2018, presumably ZK-MVR and ZK-MVT as ZK-MVS is a Tecnam P2002 Sierra microlight. Then four more arrive between 01 Jul 2018 and 30 Jun 2019, and the last six between 01 Jul 2019 and 30 Jun 2020.

PA515
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1116
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:44 pm

Kashmon wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
Of course, all the local Chinese councils/Governments are the ones propping up the flights like CDU/XIY/SZX/CKG

C.


That is cute



I have seen such comments multiple times now (not only from you). Can we please be adults, and drop those patronising comments? The rest of your post would have been sufficient...

Thank you
micha
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1209
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:07 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Quite a bold statement to make, with no substance (facts or figures) to back it up, at all.

It is not a zero-sum game - NZ can have both ORD and ICN, but IMO, ORD carries risk:

- ORD is significantly further away than ICN, making it costlier to run (important, as oil is rising) and more demanding from a utilization perspective.
- The US is growing, but people are picking the East Coast for transfers (LAX and SFO (+~30% y/y)), and ditching in-land airports (IAH (-~7% y/y)).
- Between 2016 - 2017, NZ's Asia revenue declined by ~6%, while its North America revenue declined by double that, or ~12% (~NZD 100 million).
- At ~16 - 17 hours, people could view ORD - AKL as simply too long to endure in one seat, whereas IAH - AKL is shorter and a bit more bearable.
- If QF launches BNE - ORD with one of its new 789s in the next few months or so, as has been predicted, ORD might not be as attractive to NZ.
- The US DOT may soon approve the AA - QF JV, affecting AA's AKL presence (e.g. a year-round flight, which puts pressure on any NZ ORD flight).

It's all in how you interpret statistics and the reasoning that you ascribe to why people make decisions.

* Just because people "pick" LAX and SFO for transfers doesn't mean that they wouldn't "pick" ORD under other circumstances. We tend to assume that all travellers are like A-netters in that they carefully select their flights based on personally-important criteria. Sorry to break it to you, but most people who fly don't have a clue what their routing is from A to B and care even less - if their agent tells them there will be a transfer in IAH en route to AKL then they'll go that way; if the agent tells them the transfer point will be LAX they'll shrug and go that way. So it will be with ORD if that becomes part of the network. To suggest that people are "ditching" inland transfer points just because IAH had a downturn of a few percent one year is drawing a very long bow.

* If people think that AKL-ORD at 16-17 hours is too long then surely BNE-ORD will be an abject failure as a route and won't pose any competition. I'm far from convinced that ULH flights are negative from a passenger perspective. My experience after talking with non-geek travellers who have flown AKL-DXB/DOH-Europe is that there are a range of opinions as to the merits of the flight, but no one has told me they would not do it again. Even on A-net there are polar opposites in view. It's pure supposition to suggest that pax might be put off such flights because they're "too long". I could just as easily propose that ULH flights will be a roaring success because people prefer to get the longest leg out of the way and then only have a short connecting flight. Unless there's research into passenger preferences either way, it's all just A-net speculation.

I also think we fall into the trap of assuming that what we know about the potential of a new route is all there is to know. The airlines have access to far more analysis than we will ever have access to, and are privy to strategic and operational considerations (and many financial pressures and opportunities) that we simply cannot be unaware of unless we have a deep inside knowledge of commercially-sensitive information. So when we speculate about what might work and what might not, let's also recognise that extrapolating what we know to the point where certain options are ruled in and certain others are ruled out is a highly flawed approach.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:49 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I don't get what you mean by the statements being "incompatible"

Okay, I'll break it down:

- You said that NZ is not interested in low-yielding traffic on the HKG route, but a major driver of high-yielding traffic is loyalty and rewards (FFP, lounge access etc)
- NZ can't use HKG as its gateway to China for high-yielding traffic (as you suggest), as NZ's FFP members are denied such rewards (with no CX/KA code-sharing)
- For example, a gold NZ FFP member flying CTU - AKL on KA via HKG, on Y+, wouldn't be able to access any lounge in CTU, or gain FFP points on CTU - HKG

C.


You've made an assumption that high yield traffic is made up of only of FFP members which is completely incorrect. Although yes, they make up a portion of high yield traffic, they are definitely NOT the only passenger type in this market segment.

Low-yielding point to point traffic is your backpackers, students, price sensitive FIT travelers.
Medium to High-yielding traffic, either point to point or through is your FFP market, premium / wealthy / middle class and above travelers, Business travelers (non FFP) who fly based on overall qualiuty of service, value for money in conjuntion with price... etc

You can also split it into passenger segmentations, for example your "50+ adventurers" will pay premium where your "18-25 explorers" will go low yielding as they are price sensitive. HKG and China is actually becoming a strong market outbound for that 50+ market. Baby boomers getting close to retirement, exploring the world / culture while they can. Inbound is slightly different but the same principal applies.

There are a large number of passengers sitting in Q class and above onboard NZ87 tonight who are NOT FFP members, Q class and above sits nicely into medium yield and it only goes up from there.

Add in your standard Airpoints members and have either entered a number as they've joined for this flight or hold a credit card or joined on their last holiday (Airpoints member for unrelated reasons and was not a motivator for booking NZ this time) then that group increases again.

Research of Airpoints members significantly shows for your non teir members, FFP benefits is not a high purchasing influencer when choosing which airline to fly; price, safety, reputation, IFE, meals etc all weigh in well above FFP.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4146
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:03 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Sure, I agree the markets are different although the local markets were bigger 20 years ago than today still.

I'm not sure how this is relevant?

- Lower volumes today do not necessarily equate to lower yields - quality, not quantity, is what matters for profitable and sustainable tourism.
- Demand might have been stronger back then, but capacity has dropped more than demand has (KE with 1x daily jumbo, instead of 2x daily).

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ dropped down to just NRT in Japan, KIX has since restarted seasonally and HND has started.

So Japan, which sends the same amount of tourists here as Korea (approximately) has up to 3x daily flights, whereas Korea has just one.

This just proves my point that there is most definitely an opportunity for OZ and/or NZ to give KE some competition on the AKL - ICN route.

Cheers,

C.

Agree. NZ and OZ between them should be able to manage a 3x weekly service to ICN.
Has 789 written all over it.
59 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:34 pm

PA515 wrote:
Not if they their aircraft are repossessed. The Hainan Group has a significant cash flow problem and has fallen behind with lease payments.

The issue with HNA Group is more in its non-aviation business, and it will address its cash-flow issues this year with various property sales. This is backed up by the likes of AerCap's CEO (HNA Group is one of its biggest customers), who came out just a few days ago, to say that: “The issue around Hainan Airlines is not the airlines themselves -- they are viable business models -- ... we know there’s a viable business.” Further, as the Economist notes, political connections back up the Group.

See:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... kelly-says.
- https://www.economist.com/news/business ... taking-new.

As I said earlier here, IMO, HU's SZX service can and will survive - Guangdong is China's largest provincial economy, and provides the second highest amount of Chinese visitors to New Zealand. Stats NZ's figures showed that HU's new service was taking away Guangdong-based traffic from CZ's CAN service. HX's HKG service is also likely to survive, even if in a reduced form - the upgrade of AKL to 2x daily seasonally shows some level of success, otherwise AKL would be kept at 1x daily.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:53 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
Agree. NZ and OZ between them should be able to manage a 3x weekly service to ICN.
Has 789 written all over it.


NZ won't start up ICN without OZ being onboard in a revenue share alliance.

Although Korea fits into the Pacific Rim strategy it's not building on Japan and China which has been the North Asia focus. NZ would also be up against a national carrier or Korea (KE) who is well established in the market, a market which is growing but is not 'developing' (i.e. not showing the potential long term growth of China) and is largely inbound from Korea

OZ have been an gone, they may have little to no interest in entering again and trying to compete direct with KE given it would largely be an inbound NZ market. Therefore the success would largely fall on the Korean end with their network, marketing and distribution.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:51 am

NZ6 wrote:
OZ ... gone ... little to no interest in entering again and trying to compete direct with KE.

Bold assertion - source? OZ is launching new markets, in competition with KE (like BCN) - it wants much more long-haul growth.

OZ said just this week that it is seeking to further build its A350 fleet to 30 by 2025, and serve 25 long-haul routes, up from 14.

See:
- http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/busines ... 00320.html.
- http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180206000634.

NZ6 wrote:
Korea ... a market which is growing but is not 'developing' (i.e. not showing the potential long term growth of China) and is largely inbound from Korea

So? The same could be said for a host of low-GDP growth countries that NZ is expanding to, like Argentina, the US and Japan.

NZ6 wrote:
Although Korea fits into the Pacific Rim strategy it's not building on Japan and China which has been the North Asia focus.

A couple of points:

- NZ has already built up China (PVG growth, and the CA / CX alliances), and Japan (introduction of HND / KIX) considerably.
- A Korea service would be a natural extension for NZ, freeing up China and Japan flights for more local traffic (less transfers).

Remember, diversification is also important - over-reliance on just China and Japan for most Asian growth could be risky for NZ.

Zkpilot wrote:
Agree. NZ and OZ between them should be able to manage a 3x weekly service to ICN.

NZ321 wrote:
Agreed fully. Opportunity exists in Korea.

:checkmark: :checkmark:

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:47 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
OZ ... gone ... little to no interest in entering again and trying to compete direct with KE.

Bold assertion - source? OZ is launching new markets, in competition with KE (like BCN) - it wants much more long-haul growth.

OZ said just this week that it is seeking to further build its A350 fleet to 30 by 2025, and serve 25 long-haul routes, up from 14.

See:
- http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/busines ... 00320.html.
- http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180206000634.

NZ6 wrote:
Korea ... a market which is growing but is not 'developing' (i.e. not showing the potential long term growth of China) and is largely inbound from Korea

So? The same could be said for a host of low-GDP growth countries that NZ is expanding to, like Argentina, the US and Japan.

NZ6 wrote:
Although Korea fits into the Pacific Rim strategy it's not building on Japan and China which has been the North Asia focus.

A couple of points:

- NZ has already built up China (PVG growth, and the CA / CX alliances), and Japan (introduction of HND / KIX) considerably.
- A Korea service would be a natural extension for NZ, freeing up China and Japan flights for more local traffic (less transfers).

Remember, diversification is also important - over-reliance on just China and Japan for most Asian growth could be risky for NZ.

Zkpilot wrote:
Agree. NZ and OZ between them should be able to manage a 3x weekly service to ICN.

NZ321 wrote:
Agreed fully. Opportunity exists in Korea.

:checkmark: :checkmark:

Cheers,

C.


You omitted a key word; "may have little to no interest in entering" . Although from directly inside NZ ICN is not a focus.

OZ looking to expand, sure! (and by all means quote the media - we all know how accurate they can be) but does it mean NZ is on their radar?

US is a developed market and key trade partner, a market which is positively reacting to increased capacity and new routes (YVR increase, SFO increase, IAH introduction and increase, UA partnership) The capacity growth is also going into otherwise untouched corners of America (IAH) therefore reaching millions of Americans who have identified as wanting to travel to NZ/AU but for various reasons including distance / connections have otherwise passed on the opportunity. To date anyway.

Japan is another establish NZ market, massive trading partner which is being nurtured back to good health.

Korea has potential, hence KE flying here. The question is does NZ want to gamble with direct competition with a national carrier on a route such as AKL-ICN without a revenue share alliance partner? The answer is no! I also believe OZ are not interested and NZ isn’t pushing it further as it’s not a core focus point in Asia at the moment

Re Korea being a natural extension, where is the evidence that China, Japan need to be freed of space up for local traffic? After all – people doubted my need for a 3rd HKG service!
Korea is a good support route for increased growth into Japan (a focus) and will support that will it’s various connections.

Having worked inside NZ the best part of two decades and having been privy to various business cases on new routes etc – reading these forums can be frustrating as strong opinions are made on the back media reports, speculation and opinion derived from miss understood stats and data.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:06 am

DavidByrne wrote:
We tend to assume that all travellers are like A-netters in that they carefully select their flights based on personally-important criteria

DavidByrne wrote:
... most people who fly don't have a clue what their routing is ... if their agent tells them there will be a transfer ... they'll go that way

Source? Travel agents are in massive decline - in the US alone:

- There are about 13,000 travel retail locations, down from a peak of 34,000 in the 1990s.
- There are about 74,000 travel agents, down from a peak of 132,000 in the 1990s.

People are more aware now, with Expedia and the like clearly highlighting routes, lay-overs and timings (and indeed, ranking the latter).

See:
- https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/arti ... s-agencies.
- https://www.theatlantic.com/business/ar ... nt/488282/.
- https://skift.com/2016/01/15/travel-age ... xt-decade/.
- https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html.
- https://www.travelagentcentral.com/runn ... to-decline.

Bringing this back, if someone in NYC saw routes to AKL via ORD or SFO, I bet many would pick SFO's transfer, based on flight times.

Sure, some people will be oblivious, but an increasing number are not, and this is one factor (among others) that plays into AKL - ORD.

Cheers

C.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1209
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:36 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Travel agents are in massive decline - in the US alone:

- There are about 13,000 travel retail locations, down from a peak of 34,000 in the 1990s.
- There are about 74,000 travel agents, down from a peak of 132,000 in the 1990s.

People are more aware now, with Expedia and the like clearly highlighting routes, lay-overs and timings (and indeed, ranking the latter).

See:
- https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/arti ... s-agencies.
- https://www.theatlantic.com/business/ar ... nt/488282/.
- https://skift.com/2016/01/15/travel-age ... xt-decade/.
- https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html.
- https://www.travelagentcentral.com/runn ... to-decline. .

I don't doubt this, and I know for myself that many many people (me included) use web sites and make their own choices. I think you're missing my point, though, which is that in my experience, many people DON'T stress over which routing they take and that a transit in ORD, IAH, LAX or SFO is more likely to be motivated by price or the ease of connection than by the length of the flight sectors. I can't prove that, but I'd be interested to know if there has been any research done on passenger preferences in terms of whether they prefer ULH flights or ordinary LH flights where they have a choice.

Meanwhile it's just your "bet" that pax would prefer SFO over ORD against my observation that non-avgeeks don't seem to care as much about these things as avgeeks think they do (or should).
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZKOAB
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:59 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:26 am

Do you know when ZK-MCX will be retired?
Taking into account the information in your post, it will be the last -500 in the old livery after November.

As for the Q300's does anyone know if/when NEC, NED, NEE, NEF, NEG, NEH, NEJ and NEK will have the new livery?

PA515 wrote:
Three more Air NZ ATR 72-500s have recently been listed For Sale.
http://www.myairlease.com/available/ava ... _lease_ATR

ZK-MCB (msn 598) --- available Jun 2018
ZK-MCU (msn 632) --- available Jul 2018
ZK-MCY (msn 703) --- available Nov 2018

ZK-MCA and ZK-MCW have gone to Novoair of Bangladesh.

Another one should leave the fleet before 30 Jun 2019 and the last five between 01 Jul 2019 and 30 Jun 2020.

The next two ATR 72-600s are for delivery before the 30 Jun 2018, presumably ZK-MVR and ZK-MVT as ZK-MVS is a Tecnam P2002 Sierra microlight. Then four more arrive between 01 Jul 2018 and 30 Jun 2019, and the last six between 01 Jul 2019 and 30 Jun 2020.

PA515
 
PA515
Posts: 1362
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:55 am

ZKOAB wrote:
Do you know when ZK-MCX will be retired?
Taking into account the information in your post, it will be the last -500 in the old livery after November.

As for the Q300's does anyone know if/when NEC, NED, NEE, NEF, NEG, NEH, NEJ and NEK will have the new livery?

PA515 wrote:
Three more Air NZ ATR 72-500s have recently been listed For Sale.
http://www.myairlease.com/available/ava ... _lease_ATR

ZK-MCB (msn 598) --- available Jun 2018
ZK-MCU (msn 632) --- available Jul 2018
ZK-MCY (msn 703) --- available Nov 2018

ZK-MCA and ZK-MCW have gone to Novoair of Bangladesh.

Another one should leave the fleet before 30 Jun 2019 and the last five between 01 Jul 2019 and 30 Jun 2020.

The next two ATR 72-600s are for delivery before the 30 Jun 2018, presumably ZK-MVR and ZK-MVT as ZK-MVS is a Tecnam P2002 Sierra microlight. Then four more arrive between 01 Jul 2018 and 30 Jun 2019, and the last six between 01 Jul 2019 and 30 Jun 2020.

PA515


Don't know when ZK-MCX (msn 687) will be retired, but suspect it could be early 2019. Maybe Novoair is interested but not ready to take it until later.

ZK-NEC was repainted in TSV in October 2017. I'm guessing the rest have been booked in and will be repainted after the next ATR 72-600 arrives. QF is having Q400s repainted in TSV at the moment, QOA to QOE one after the other so far, and before that all their Q300s except VH-SCE.

All but six of the Air NZ Q300s now have ADS-B. The ones yet to get it are ZK-NEA, ZK-NEE, ZK-NER, ZK-NES, ZK-NET and ZK-NEU. ADS-B is now just being installed when they are in for maintenance. ZK-NEQ was the last one, so NER, NES, NET and NEU over the next six months would appear to be the plan. ZK-NEE will probably be done prior to getting the repaint.

PA515
 
ZKOAB
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:59 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:38 pm

Thank you PA515.
I value the useful information you provide this forum.

PA515 wrote:
Don't know when ZK-MCX (msn 687) will be retired, but suspect it could be early 2019. Maybe Novoair is interested but not ready to take it until later.

ZK-NEC was repainted in TSV in October 2017. I'm guessing the rest have been booked in and will be repainted after the next ATR 72-600 arrives. QF is having Q400s repainted in TSV at the moment, QOA to QOE one after the other so far, and before that all their Q300s except VH-SCE.

All but six of the Air NZ Q300s now have ADS-B. The ones yet to get it are ZK-NEA, ZK-NEE, ZK-NER, ZK-NES, ZK-NET and ZK-NEU. ADS-B is now just being installed when they are in for maintenance. ZK-NEQ was the last one, so NER, NES, NET and NEU over the next six months would appear to be the plan. ZK-NEE will probably be done prior to getting the repaint.

PA515
 
NZ321
Posts: 914
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:57 pm

This may sound crazy, in the face of all we know about NZ's strategy, so I am fully prepared to be shot down in flames. But I am curious... what about an LHR route via the Americas. Lima, Buenos Aires, or Mexico City? Given that traffic from some points, to NZ alone, may be less than what justifies the route as a point to point and NZ has a crew base in LHR anyway, then could there be an opportunity here to extend presence in the Americas? Cost of crew accomodation in South America is minimal in comparison to HKG, SIN, NRT, LAX etc. Star have no presence in this market other than from BOG from what I can see. This means that London based travellers (or similar in the Americas travelling to London) have to connect in Europe or the US in order to complete their journey or choose a rival alliance. it's a gap in the network. I won't say it's ripe for the picking but as far as I know there is little or no Star presence in this market yet there must be some demand at higher yield level. MEX has been touted before in this forum. Thoughts?
Plane mad!
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 777
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:32 pm

NZ sold its second LHR slot. So to start a new LHR service it will have to wait for a new slot or purchase/lease someone else's.

But you do point out that to make a second leg work for NZ it has to basically support itself with something more than just through traffic. I wouldn't expect a second LHR service any time in the near to mid future as it just doesn't align with their current aim for non stop from AKL. With the upcoming ULH planes we're probably more likely to see a flight to Turkey than a second to London.
 
bevan7
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:02 pm

Star had no flights on HKG-LHR which got canned. I'd assume HKG is higher yielding than Lima
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1209
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:44 pm

I remember that when traffic rights were negotiated with Argentina many years ago there were onward rights to Europe included. Back then it seemed a realistic long term possibility but not now in the “no new two-sector flights” era.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:33 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Given that traffic from some points, to NZ alone, may be less than what justifies the route as a point to point ...

NZ uses AKL as a gateway to Australia for traffic top-up, which is what probably got destinations like EZE over the line (with ~40% of passengers on AKL - EZE being Australian).

See: https://blueswandaily.com/air-new-zeala ... rd-levels/.

Routes like MEX / LIM - AKL are really MEX / LIM - AKL - SYD / MEL / BNE / ADL / PER - the amount of Australian connections will be very useful, and less risky than a LHR tag.

That being said, I have wondered about AKL - MEX - NYC, as a way to launch NYC, before the 359s / 77Xs enter the fleet - fifth-freedom traffic would beat a US tag (like QF has).

Cheers,

C.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 184
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:47 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
Given that traffic from some points, to NZ alone, may be less than what justifies the route as a point to point ...

NZ uses AKL as a gateway to Australia for traffic top-up, which is what probably got destinations like EZE over the line (with ~40% of passengers on AKL - EZE being Australian).

See: https://blueswandaily.com/air-new-zeala ... rd-levels/.

Routes like MEX / LIM - AKL are really MEX / LIM - AKL - SYD / MEL / BNE / ADL / PER - the amount of Australian connections will be very useful, and less risky than a LHR tag.

That being said, I have wondered about AKL - MEX - NYC, as a way to launch NYC, before the 359s / 77Xs enter the fleet - fifth-freedom traffic would beat a US tag (like QF has).

Cheers,

C.


The Qantas tag to JFK works due to passengers off BNE / SYD / MEL something NZ wouldn't have if a NYC flight went via LA so you're right from an NZ perspective.

In my mind is there enough demand to MEX to make it viable ? I don't think a flight like this could rely on MEX - NYC traffic to make it work. Could be wrong though.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1209
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:58 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
I have wondered about AKL - MEX - NYC, as a way to launch NYC, before the 359s / 77Xs enter the fleet - fifth-freedom traffic would beat a US tag (like QF has).

It has many times been stated that the only reason why LAX-LHR survives, while carrying the higher costs of being an operation away from the carrier's main base, is that it has attracted a serious number of passengers on the LAX-LHR sector, having become a kind of niche carrier on that route (allegedly for B-list Hollywood celebs, though I'm not sure how much that is apocryphal). To make MEX-NYC work, you'd need to attract a serious number of MEX-NYC passengers, and that would be a real challenge in an existing market with major carriers already serving the route. Just can't see that happening. And NZ certainly hasn't recanted on the "nonstop flights only" mantra, so I think this discussion is purely hypothetical.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:00 am

Again we're getting really creative in the sandbox of ideas around new routes based on nothing more than creative thinking.

NZ is almost nonexistent in the Central American market and is very immature in the South America market. NZ is building South America with aim to make AKL a HUB to Australia and Asia from South America.

Any growth in this region, will be in making EZE daily and creating a strong market presence. From there they may expand into Chile or more northern points of South American, Puru or Brazil (range and future fleet dependent) for example but still maintaining that focus on AKL being a hub.

I'm confident we will see new future routes in South America, not within the next 3-5 years however.

There is zero potential under its current strategic direction to expand beyond South America given they have virtually no presence in the market currently.

Yes *A may drip feed you traffic, but this doesn't quantify a route beyond South America. Further to that, NZ won't look to get into the NZ-Europe market in it's current conditions, these Chinese carriers are coming in at the lower end offering fares at around $1,100 return.
 
NZ6
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:17 am

NZ6 wrote:
Again we're getting really creative in the sandbox of ideas around new routes based on nothing more than creative thinking.

NZ is almost nonexistent in the Central American market and is very immature in the South America market. NZ is building South America with aim to make AKL a HUB to Australia and Asia from South America.

Any growth in this region, will be in making EZE daily and creating a strong market presence. From there they may expand into Chile or more northern points of South American, Puru or Brazil (range and future fleet dependent) for example but still maintaining that focus on AKL being a hub.

I'm confident we will see new future routes in South America, not within the next 3-5 years however.

There is zero potential under its current strategic direction to expand beyond South America given they have virtually no presence in the market currently.

Yes *A may drip feed you traffic, but this doesn't quantify a route beyond South America. Further to that, NZ won't look to get into the NZ-Europe market in it's current conditions, these Chinese carriers are coming in at the lower end offering fares at around $1,100 return.


I've just tried looking for my data on EZE but I can't seem to locate it at the moment.

Part of the review of EZE service when it was launched involved market research in South America. By memory the result showed, New Zealand ranked 50 something in places that the South Americans wanted to travel to. The main barriers identified were knowledge of where NZ is, what it offers and how to get there.

Of those that knew of NZ, they had a strong desire to travel here.

Australia ranked higher however, if you don't know NZ is a gateway there is risk flying Air NZ will be overlooked as an option someone eliminating these customers.

The challenge is how does Tourism NZ and Air NZ raise awareness is such a huge continent and improve on that ranking. This will generate depend and growth.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:28 am

NZ6 wrote:
Again we're getting really creative in the sandbox of ideas around new routes based on nothing more than creative thinking

Which is totally fine, because this is an open forum where everyone is entitled to share their ideas and opinions?

NZ6 wrote:
Any growth in this region, will be in making EZE daily and creating a strong market presence. From there they may expand into Chile ...

This is only half correct, as per Cam Wallace's comments late last year that AKL - EZE was doing well, and that: "Regarding future growth in South America, Mr Wallace commented: “At the moment our focus is frequency into Argentina, not route development”."

See: https://blueswandaily.com/air-new-zeala ... evolution/.

However, note that the comment is regarding South America only - not Latin America, or Central America. I can envisage a dual-feeder approach for Latin America, whereby AKL - MEX (with AM) services the North, while AKL - EZE (with AR) services the South:

Image

AKL's geographic advantage is useful for NZ at MEX (with hot and high conditions limiting range) - MEX's current longest flight (MEX - NRT) is ~1,000 mi shorter than SYD - MEX would be, making it less likely that QF could make any Australia - MEX service viable.

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ certainly hasn't recanted on the "nonstop flights only" mantra, so I think this discussion is purely hypothetical

Indeed - Cam Wallace late last year said: “It is not sustainable for us to do beyond point to point travel. Our new aircraft will allow us to continue this and focus on single flight routes”. I find the "sustainability" comment interesting - is that hinting at dropping LHR?

See: https://blueswandaily.com/air-new-zeala ... evolution/.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
Posts: 914
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:53 pm

Planesman's map lists possible feed from EZE. As far as I know, Avianca does not have an Argentina division so feed is via Aerolineas Argentinas. I still think there is an opportunity for NZ to pick up a STAR destination like GRU or LIM. I wonder how long it will be for EZE to reach daily year-round.
Plane mad!
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6276
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:27 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Planesman's map lists possible feed from EZE. As far as I know, Avianca does not have an Argentina division so feed is via Aerolineas Argentinas. I still think there is an opportunity for NZ to pick up a STAR destination like GRU or LIM. I wonder how long it will be for EZE to reach daily year-round.


Brazil is a long term plan when longer range aircraft are in the fleet, so atleast 5 years out. EZE is doing well, they might get to daily within the next 2 summers and then another 2-3 years for it to be daily year round.
 
NZ6
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:47 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Again we're getting really creative in the sandbox of ideas around new routes based on nothing more than creative thinking

Which is totally fine, because this is an open forum where everyone is entitled to share their ideas and opinions?.


Sure, but they need to be somewhat realistic.

We're looking at flights from Central America to New York. The first leg; there's very low numbers of PAX connecting onto MEX via NZ2, NZ6, NZ8 and NZ28. There is virtually no demand.

The second leg; New York is already served via LAX, SFO, YVR and IAH. The sole purpose of IAH was to make more of East Coast USA closer to a direct NZ connection. A MEX gateway goes directly against this strategy therefore leaving the route open largely for 5th freedom traffic only (if they even have those rights). Future growth is looking deeper into North East USA, which is where ORD comes into topic.


planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Any growth in this region, will be in making EZE daily and creating a strong market presence. From there they may expand into Chile ...

This is only half correct, as per Cam Wallace's comments late last year that AKL - EZE was doing well, and that: "Regarding future growth in South America, Mr Wallace commented: “At the moment our focus is frequency into Argentina, not route development”."
C.


No, it's completely correct and what Cam is saying is exactly what I'm saying.

Cam said: "At the moment our focus is frequency into Argentina"
NZ6 said: "Any growth in this region, will be in making EZE daily"

And

Cam said: "At the moment ....not route development"
NZ6 said: "From there they may expand into Chile......I'm confident we will see new future routes in South America, not within the next 3-5 years however."

Finally, I never said EZE wasn't doing well, in fact I didn't comment on it's performance at all. From what I understand, the route is developing slowly but is tracking as expected so executive team and happy with how it's going.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 184
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:59 pm

Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.
 
NZ6
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:14 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
However, note that the comment is regarding South America only - not Latin America, or Central America. I can envisage a dual-feeder approach for Latin America, whereby AKL - MEX (with AM) services the North, while AKL - EZE (with AR) services the South:

Image

AKL's geographic advantage is useful for NZ at MEX (with hot and high conditions limiting range) - MEX's current longest flight (MEX - NRT) is ~1,000 mi shorter than SYD - MEX would be, making it less likely that QF could make any Australia - MEX service viable.

C.


From a geographical aspect, you've identified a gap in the market that is advantages towards NZ. I see what you're saying, Use MEX as a hub and feed NZ/Australia direct via AKL. It makes sense when you look at a map.

Reality, economics and competition mean it's not that simple. LAX is a key hub for all those central American ports, that brings in QF, DL, AA, UA, VA, TN, FJ, CX.... the list can go on into play.

O&D traffic (AKL-MEX) is all but non existent, Premium demand to Central America is extremely low.

You're not actually opening a new market as like you are with South America, you're trying to create one which isn't there.

All of this is why growth, new routes etc for long haul will come from 4 key areas (in order)

1: USA: Open North East USA, Giving all American's to a direct connection to AKL within a 2-3 flight.
2. China: Go deeper into China and expand on the Chinese network / partners
3. Japan: Continue to rebuild Japan to what it was in the 90's
4; South America open second destination once EZE is daily, year round.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:30 pm

NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.

:checkmark: - plus, it will only be a matter of time before LA goes non-stop on SYD - SCL or QF increases its SCL frequencies, with its 789.

Cheers,

C.
 
User avatar
JBusworth
Posts: 160
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:00 am

NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.


The flights from SYD and MEL-SCL lessen the case for both NZ flights to Brazil and Chile. They just have to start flights into GIG before QF gets there. I really can't see QF and NZ compete against each other on routes to places like GIG or ORD as NZ would lose a lot of the Aussie connection passengers.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6276
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:27 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.

:checkmark: - plus, it will only be a matter of time before LA goes non-stop on SYD - SCL or QF increases its SCL frequencies, with its 789.

Cheers,

C.
JBusworth wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.


The flights from SYD and MEL-SCL lessen the case for both NZ flights to Brazil and Chile. They just have to start flights into GIG before QF gets there. I really can't see QF and NZ compete against each other on routes to places like GIG or ORD as NZ would lose a lot of the Aussie connection passengers.
NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.


It depends where in Australia you are though a bit because connecting at AKL from an international flight from OZ is an international to international seemless connection where as QF would do SYD-GRU non stop but from the rest of Australia is a change of terminal, I agree not as bad as some make out to be but certainly a reason why NZ do well with OZ connections, these flights are always cheaper OZ-America’s than NZ-America’s.
 
NZ6
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:48 am

All this recent talk of new routes (well all my talk) has been focused on the traditional long haul airline.

Air New Zealand, has recently opened up a new type of product - mid to long haul leisure. Designed purely around the outbound tourist market with seasonal operations without some of the extra such as through checking etc.

Examples obviously are DPS, SGN and you can add MNL in there too to an extent and there is another one coming shortly, they initially became viable thanks to the 763.

Does this influence the long haul fleet replacement program? Is the 789 too big for some of these routes given NZ is continuing with them, do they live with it or introduce something similar in size to the 763? Ideally you'd want a 200-230 seater, the 789 is over the 300 mark obviously but you also don't want to end up with a large diverse fleet as that increases operating costs.

Looking at the options.
- The A321LR doesn't have the legs for AKL-SGN or AKL-DPS but is the perfect size for these markets and would have accompanied the A320/A321NEO's coming in nicely. Cancel this option.
- If NZ decide to go all Airbus, the only other option is a A330-200 but I can't see NZ purchasing this as it's a new type, the A350-800 could work if it was actually built and would be perfect if the rest of the long haul fleet was the A350-900/1000
- If NZ go Boeing and the 778/787, do they try get a few 788's like they originally intended or explore the 797, all be it 15+ years away so they world will be a different place then.
- NZ does nothing, operating the long haul fleet whatever it is to these markets.

Rainy day thoughts.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 184
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:51 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.

:checkmark: - plus, it will only be a matter of time before LA goes non-stop on SYD - SCL or QF increases its SCL frequencies, with its 789.

Cheers,

C.
JBusworth wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.


The flights from SYD and MEL-SCL lessen the case for both NZ flights to Brazil and Chile. They just have to start flights into GIG before QF gets there. I really can't see QF and NZ compete against each other on routes to places like GIG or ORD as NZ would lose a lot of the Aussie connection passengers.
NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

My guess is this would reduce potential traffic connecting over AKL to Brazil.


It depends where in Australia you are though a bit because connecting at AKL from an international flight from OZ is an international to international seemless connection where as QF would do SYD-GRU non stop but from the rest of Australia is a change of terminal, I agree not as bad as some make out to be but certainly a reason why NZ do well with OZ connections, these flights are always cheaper OZ-America’s than NZ-America’s.


I agree if you're going from say BNE or ADL for example. My guess would be that the demand from outside of Sydney or Melbourne would be much, much lower so it would have a decent impact.

If you're going to Buenos Aires NZ is a good choice from anywhere as there are no longer flights from Australia. Anywhere else in South America ( from SYD / MEL ) NZ is unlikely to be the best option.

I have been to South America 8 times ( married to a Chilean) and have used LA, QF and AR. When going to SCL you can't beat hopping on the QF flight and getting off in Santiago. My very first trip in 1996 I did SYD - AKL - PPT - IPC - SCL.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:20 am

JBusworth wrote:
I really can't see QF and NZ compete against each other on routes to places like GIG or ORD as NZ would lose a lot of the Aussie connection passengers.

It depends on the Australian departure port. SYD and MEL are where, by far, the majority of demand is - therefore, AKL - ORD can easily compete with BNE - ORD, as for SYD and MEL passengers traveling to ORD, an AKL stop (being a same-terminal transit) is more convenient than a BNE stop. Similarly, if QF flies SYD - GRU, then for the likes of MEL passengers, AKL (or SCL) would be better for transits.

NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

The great thing about Australia is that the demand is split across SYD and MEL, so if QF were to open GRU or GIG, it would likely be from only one of these cities, leaving NZ to tap the other one (with a superior same-terminal transfer). Then it comes down to NZ (via AKL) competing against LA (via SCL) - IMHO, NZ could easily compete with LA on the basis of product offering, particularly in Business Class.

Cheers,

C.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 184
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:45 am

planemanofnz wrote:
JBusworth wrote:
I really can't see QF and NZ compete against each other on routes to places like GIG or ORD as NZ would lose a lot of the Aussie connection passengers.

It depends on the Australian departure port. SYD and MEL are where, by far, the majority of demand is - therefore, AKL - ORD can easily compete with BNE - ORD, as for SYD and MEL passengers traveling to ORD, an AKL stop (being a same-terminal transit) is more convenient than a BNE stop. Similarly, if QF flies SYD - GRU, then for the likes of MEL passengers, AKL (or SCL) would be better for transits.

NTLDaz wrote:
Wondering whether the LA flight MEL-SCL will lessen the case for an AKL-GRU flight. Right now Australia's 2 largest markets have 1 stop flights to GRU and GIG.

The great thing about Australia is that the demand is split across SYD and MEL, so if QF were to open GRU or GIG, it would likely be from only one of these cities, leaving NZ to tap the other one (with a superior same-terminal transfer). Then it comes down to NZ (via AKL) competing against LA (via SCL) - IMHO, NZ could easily compete with LA on the basis of product offering, particularly in Business Class.

Cheers,

C.


And where LA has a definite advantage over NZ is the ability to earn QFF points.

If the EZE flight works ( and I don't know this for sure) through having 40% connecting traffic from Australia then my supposition will be that a Brazil flight needs the same. With 1 stop options from SYD/MEL already available this may be difficult to achieve.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:14 am

NTLDaz wrote:
If the EZE flight works ( and I don't know this for sure) through having 40% connecting traffic from Australia then my supposition will be that a Brazil flight needs the same. With 1 stop options from SYD/MEL already available this may be difficult to achieve.

Yes, and I suspect that a lot of the positive comments by NZ on EZE were made before the commencement of LA's MEL - SCL flight.

NZ's MEL feeder traffic will be getting a battering from AC's MEL - YVR flight, LA's MEL - SCL flight, and QF's new MEL - SFO flight.

That is why, IMO, MEX is a good idea for NZ - geography (being hot and high) really inhibits any non-stop QF service from Australia.

Cheers,

C.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:55 am

NTLDaz wrote:
And where LA has a definite advantage over NZ is the ability to earn QFF points.


That's only an advantage if you collect Qantas FF points.

NTLDaz wrote:
If the EZE flight works ( and I don't know this for sure) through having 40% connecting traffic from Australia then my supposition will be that a Brazil flight needs the same. With 1 stop options from SYD/MEL already available this may be difficult to achieve.


Sorry, I'm confused. At the moment, Australians can fly non-stop to the US or they can take various one-stops with NZ being high on that list.

NZ has indicated that they will fly to Brazil when they have the right aircraft:

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/cathays-u ... g-p-206920

"(Luxon adding that they will be able to directly directly from Auckland to the east coats of North and South America, such as New York and Brazil."

Although I'm intrigued as to what aircraft Qantas will acquire, if we assume Qantas has similar aircraft (?) capable of flying non-stop SYD-Brazil, how does anything change? It will still be non-stop on the Australian airline to Brazil and one-stop on NZ.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:06 am

mariner wrote:
That's only an advantage if you collect Qantas FF points.

Which is, like, a very, very big and important portion of the Australian traveling public? A consideration.

"The program today has over twelve million members and has evolved into Australia’s largest program."

See:
- http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation ... w34wq.html.
- http://www.airlinehubbuzz.com/qantas-ce ... milestone/.
- https://www.reuters.com/article/austral ... 1M20140831.

mariner wrote:
Although I'm intrigued as to what aircraft Qantas will acquire, if we assume Qantas has similar aircraft (?) capable of flying non-stop SYD-Brazil, how does anything change? It will still be non-stop on the Australian airline to Brazil and one-stop on NZ.

I assume (and have no proof) that NZ's connecting traffic (or at least the valuable portion of it) is between cities that aren't connected (or at least weren't, until recently) with non-stop flights - think YVR - AKL - MEL or SFO - AKL - MEL, as opposed to LAX - AKL - MEL. NZ will no doubt get less connecting traffic from MEL to places like YVR and SFO now (with AC and QF launching non-stop flights, respectively). If QF launches SYD - GRU, NZ would get less connecting traffic from SYD to GRU (if NZ flew to GRU) too, than otherwise would be the case - it is definitely a consideration that NZ will have to account for, in doing the business case.

Cheers,

C.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:15 am

planemanofnz wrote:
mariner wrote:
That's only an advantage if you collect Qantas FF points.

Which is, like, a very, very big and important portion of the Australian traveling public? A consideration.


A consideration, sure, an importent consideration perhaps. But ti hasn't stopped all those Aussies flying on NZ to the the Americas .

planemanofnz wrote:
I assume (and have no proof) that NZ's connecting traffic (or at least the valuable portion of it) is between cities that aren't connected (or at least weren't, until recently) with non-stop flights - think YVR - AKL - MEL or SFO - AKL - MEL, as opposed to LAX - AKL - MEL. NZ will no doubt get less connecting traffic from MEL to places like YVR and SFO now (with AC and QF launching non-stop flights, respectively). If QF launches SYD - GRU, NZ would get less connecting traffic from SYD to GRU (if NZ flew to GRU) too, than otherwise would be the case - it is definitely a consideration that NZ will have to account for, in doing the business case.


All that may be true, I don't know. The point is only that it doesn't answer my question about Brazil.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4053
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:41 am

mariner wrote:
A consideration, sure, an importent consideration perhaps. But ti hasn't stopped all those Aussies flying on NZ to the the Americas

Up until recently, Velocity members could accrue their points on NZ services to the Americas - now, AFAIK, that is not the case? I don't know how much that has changed the dynamics, and put off Australians from picking NZ though - we know that NZ's Americas revenue declined substantially in the past year, so perhaps fewer Australians are picking NZ now (given that, plus new non-stop flights)?

Cheers,

C.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:01 am

planemanofnz wrote:
mariner wrote:
A consideration, sure, an importent consideration perhaps. But ti hasn't stopped all those Aussies flying on NZ to the the Americas

Up until recently, Velocity members could accrue their points on NZ services to the Americas - now, AFAIK, that is not the case? I don't know how much that has changed the dynamics, and put off Australians from picking NZ though - we know that NZ's Americas revenue declined substantially in the past year, so perhaps fewer Australians are picking NZ now (given that, plus new non-stop flights)?


Oh, sure, maybe. I'm not really concerned about the size of the market or whether it's ebbing or flowing, nor was I taking issue or expanding on anything you said. I was referring to this:

NTLDaz wrote:
If the EZE flight works ( and I don't know this for sure) through having 40% connecting traffic from Australia then my supposition will be that a Brazil flight needs the same. With 1 stop options from SYD/MEL already available this may be difficult to achieve.


I'm just puzzled as to what changes to reduce the 40% as a percentage. That's all. It isn't written in granite that NZ has to start Brazil, presumably they'll only do so (a) when they have the right aircraft and (b) when they perceive the market conditions to be in their favour.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 184
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:10 am

mariner wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
mariner wrote:
A consideration, sure, an importent consideration perhaps. But ti hasn't stopped all those Aussies flying on NZ to the the Americas

Up until recently, Velocity members could accrue their points on NZ services to the Americas - now, AFAIK, that is not the case? I don't know how much that has changed the dynamics, and put off Australians from picking NZ though - we know that NZ's Americas revenue declined substantially in the past year, so perhaps fewer Australians are picking NZ now (given that, plus new non-stop flights)?


Oh, sure, maybe. I'm not really concerned about the size of the market or whether it's ebbing or flowing, nor was I taking issue or expanding on anything you said. I was referring to this:

NTLDaz wrote:
If the EZE flight works ( and I don't know this for sure) through having 40% connecting traffic from Australia then my supposition will be that a Brazil flight needs the same. With 1 stop options from SYD/MEL already available this may be difficult to achieve.


I'm just puzzled as to what changes to reduce the 40% as a percentage. That's all. It isn't written in granite that NZ has to start Brazil, presumably they'll only do so (a) when they have the right aircraft and (b) when they perceive the market conditions to be in their favour.

mariner


OK so a flight to Brazil from MEL before LA started non-stop required 2 changes and now it requires only 1. I'm just speculating that this may make a flight on NZ less compelling. If it potentially loses MEL feed that MAY impact on a decision whether or not to start a Brazil service from AKL.

If an AKL - GRU/GIG can stand on it's own with a possible reduced feed from MEL then it's a moot point.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 12

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos