A350OZ
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:40 am

I am probably a bit late to the party, but back to Avalon and the AirAsia announcement: I agree this is a ballsy move and I wish them luck, and hopefully this can be the catalyst to finally make AVV work as an alternative for airlines and passengers. I live pretty much equidistant (as the crow flies) from MEL and AVV, however have only ever used the latter once in 8 years that I live here, and even then only by accident (diversion to SYD and re-accommodation on JQ SYD-AVV).

There are various reasons why it has not taken off in the past, but I do not think location and distance from the city to be the main obstacle. It is "only" about 55 km, and yes while significantly further than MEL, there are plenty of examples internationally of secondary airports backed by LCCs that have been successful. Think Frankfurt-Hahn (125km), Paris Beauvais (90km), or Barcelona Girona (92km) as some examples. Granted, would it be located in the southeast (Koo Wee Rup etc.) it would be closer for most of the population in the greater Melbourne region, but also even further from the CBD. And traffic on the Monash is not really better than on the Westgate.

In my view, the issue in the past with Avalon was that (a) Tiger was not a desirable carrier at the time, hence few people made the effort to use them from AVV if they could fly JQ from MEL, and (b) JQ operating from both MEL and AVV meant they never really had a huge incentive to make it work and grow, I guess. Someone such as AirAsia could really make it work if they put the effort into it.
 
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A330freak
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:38 am

QF will make a decision on whether it'll convert more of its 787 options into firm orders in a few months time. As a result, one of it's 15 options will lapse this month. Weirdly enough the article says they're also examining a business case for A321neos for JQ (even though the QF group already have a large number on order and would logically go to the JQ group). So is this a misreporting (where maybe it should have said A321neoLR perhaps) or is something else going on?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sing ... SKBN1FP0DP
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:41 am

Joyce will let the first of 15 next Boeing 787-9 options lapse when it comes up this month and will make a decision on some others in a "few more months."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sing ... SKBN1FP0DP
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:46 am

Not really aviation related but hey let's hope it keeps driving up American tourists to Australia. Well played Tourism Australia!

https://twitter.com/Australia/status/960315894550364162
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:49 am

Looks like Joyce is talking tough to Boeing. Whilst its a financial and risk decision at the end of the day, id say its also a datapoint for Boeing and Project Sunrise here - QF is not scared to walk away from things, even if theyre 'good' things.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:06 am

log0008 wrote:
Not really aviation related but hey let's hope it keeps driving up American tourists to Australia. Well played Tourism Australia!

https://twitter.com/Australia/status/960315894550364162


It played a couple of times during Super Bowl, but I was watching in Australia so don’t know if it featured in the US broadcast.

I like it, IMHO the best thing to come out of Tourism Australia in a very long time.
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Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:11 am

A330freak wrote:
QF will make a decision on whether it'll convert more of its 787 options into firm orders in a few months time. As a result, one of it's 15 options will lapse this month. Weirdly enough the article says they're also examining a business case for A321neos for JQ (even though the QF group already have a large number on order and would logically go to the JQ group). So is this a misreporting (where maybe it should have said A321neoLR perhaps) or is something else going on?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sing ... SKBN1FP0DP


My understanding of the outstanding QF Group A320NEO order is that QF has already slotted the A321NEO into their plans. Per Aus Aviation

http://australianaviation.com.au/2017/0 ... lf-profit/

54 of the order is for A320NEO's and 45 are for A321NEO's. Personally I think the A321NEO presents some great opportunities for both JQ, 3K and GK to expand their networks with.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:13 am

Emirates Engineering to repaint eight Qantas A380s in Dubai new 'armless roo' livery starting March 2018.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... ith-qantas
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:17 am

More on QF787, sounds like no new orders on Feb22 :(

“We are just taking delivery of the aircraft this year so we really want to see the case working and business case performing the way we expected to,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said. “Once we’re comfortable with that, then we will put the order in for further aircraft to replace the (Boeing) 747s.”

https://www.ausbt.com.au/alan-joyce-qan ... ource=grid
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:34 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Not really aviation related but hey let's hope it keeps driving up American tourists to Australia. Well played Tourism Australia!

https://twitter.com/Australia/status/960315894550364162


It played a couple of times during Super Bowl, but I was watching in Australia so don’t know if it featured in the US broadcast.

I like it, IMHO the best thing to come out of Tourism Australia in a very long time.

Indeed a good effort. Did you spot the Qantas 787 landing at Everett?

V/F
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:53 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Emirates Engineering to repaint eight Qantas A380s in Dubai new 'armless roo' livery starting March 2018.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... ith-qantas


Also mentions that 1 A388 will have landing gear replaced this month, so I guess the A388 freed up in a weeks time will be off to DXB for its repairs
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:54 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
More on QF787, sounds like no new orders on Feb22 :(

“We are just taking delivery of the aircraft this year so we really want to see the case working and business case performing the way we expected to,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said. “Once we’re comfortable with that, then we will put the order in for further aircraft to replace the (Boeing) 747s.”

https://www.ausbt.com.au/alan-joyce-qan ... ource=grid


So does this lead to a confirmation that QF will be keeping OJS/T/U longer?
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A330freak
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:55 am

Sydscott wrote:
A330freak wrote:
QF will make a decision on whether it'll convert more of its 787 options into firm orders in a few months time. As a result, one of it's 15 options will lapse this month. Weirdly enough the article says they're also examining a business case for A321neos for JQ (even though the QF group already have a large number on order and would logically go to the JQ group). So is this a misreporting (where maybe it should have said A321neoLR perhaps) or is something else going on?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sing ... SKBN1FP0DP


My understanding of the outstanding QF Group A320NEO order is that QF has already slotted the A321NEO into their plans. Per Aus Aviation

http://australianaviation.com.au/2017/0 ... lf-profit/

54 of the order is for A320NEO's and 45 are for A321NEO's. Personally I think the A321NEO presents some great opportunities for both JQ, 3K and GK to expand their networks with.

Indeed, that's my understandings well. What I found weird/interesting was why Alan Joyce would say they're considering the business case for the aircraft at JQ when they already have it on order (Unless that is, the current plan is not to have A321neos go to JQ but to the other Jetstars or airlines in the Qantas Group)

In other news, Alan Joyce's latest words on Project Sunrise
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... f181295976
 
qf2048
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:56 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Emirates Engineering to repaint eight Qantas A380s in Dubai new 'armless roo' livery starting March 2018.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... ith-qantas

I'd like to see one of the QF A380's get the oneworld livery. There is plenty of room to fit it!
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:13 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Emirates Engineering to repaint eight Qantas A380s in Dubai new 'armless roo' livery starting March 2018.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... ith-qantas


Great to see this finally announced.

CraigAnderson wrote:
More on QF787, sounds like no new orders on Feb22 :(

“We are just taking delivery of the aircraft this year so we really want to see the case working and business case performing the way we expected to,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said. “Once we’re comfortable with that, then we will put the order in for further aircraft to replace the (Boeing) 747s.”

https://www.ausbt.com.au/alan-joyce-qan ... ource=grid


Disappointing news I guess QF want to test the waters before they commit to firm orders even though other carriers have demonstrated the B787 capabilities. :roll:
Or they just want to make Boeing sweat a little more and come to the table with a real B747 replacement in the 350+ seater category. ;)

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log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:43 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Not really aviation related but hey let's hope it keeps driving up American tourists to Australia. Well played Tourism Australia!

https://twitter.com/Australia/status/960315894550364162


It played a couple of times during Super Bowl, but I was watching in Australia so don’t know if it featured in the US broadcast.

I like it, IMHO the best thing to come out of Tourism Australia in a very long time.


I agree, at least when promoting into Europe and America we need to give it a bit of an Aussie twist.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:35 am

A330freak wrote:
In other news, Alan Joyce's latest words on Project Sunrise
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... f181295976


Old news, AJ said back when they launched Project Sunrise that they needed the aircraft to carry "a full passenger load" so this isn't news, but FlightGlobal are pretty rubbish at being "journalists" if they can't ask him to define what a "full passenger load" is! Are we talking 200, 250, 300 passengers? In three cabin classes or four?
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:36 am

I'm starting to think QF/AA are not interested in re-filing for their JV. It's something both airlines haven't really commented on in a while and QF just seems happy doing its thing.

I noticed on QF's US website there's a big Alaska Airlines partnership page and an Alaska Mileage Points calculator. This might seem small but it's pretty significant.
Last edited by getluv on Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:36 am

qf789 wrote:
So does this lead to a confirmation that QF will be keeping OJS/T/U longer?


Good point, does anybody know what the latest 747 retirement timetable looks like?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:38 am

Updated Reuters article says AJ looking at A321neo for JQ.

"Joyce said the airline was considering whether to take some of the larger A321neo variant, which have a longer range than the older A320s they would be replacing. That would allow Jetstar to switch flights like Sydney-Bali to A321neos, freeing up its 787-8s for other destinations in the region."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sing ... SKBN1FP0DP
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:53 am

TK is still considering SYD, as per comments yesterday - "Sydney is one of the cities we are looking at opportunities for next year."

See: https://www.independent.ie/business/wor ... 64396.html.

I doubt that this would be non-stop, but I have no idea where the stop would be - as per the relevant ASA, there are no restrictions.

Cheers,

C.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:07 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
TK is still considering SYD, as per comments yesterday - "Sydney is one of the cities we are looking at opportunities for next year."

See: https://www.independent.ie/business/wor ... 64396.html.

I doubt that this would be non-stop, but I have no idea where the stop would be - as per the relevant ASA, there are no restrictions.

Cheers,

C.


Haha.. the TK in Australia stories are gets comical.

They have been talking up services to Australia for years now and seemingly commit to something and walk away.

Likely best that they don’t bother mentioning it and if it actually happens then we will see it in action.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:13 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Not really aviation related but hey let's hope it keeps driving up American tourists to Australia. Well played Tourism Australia!

https://twitter.com/Australia/status/960315894550364162


It played a couple of times during Super Bowl, but I was watching in Australia so don’t know if it featured in the US broadcast.

I like it, IMHO the best thing to come out of Tourism Australia in a very long time.

Indeed a good effort. Did you spot the Qantas 787 landing at Everett?

V/F


Yes saw the QF787 on the ad, that probably explains the photo tour VH-ZNC did in between its B1 and B2 flights last month
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:13 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Not really aviation related but hey let's hope it keeps driving up American tourists to Australia. Well played Tourism Australia!

https://twitter.com/Australia/status/960315894550364162


It played a couple of times during Super Bowl, but I was watching in Australia so don’t know if it featured in the US broadcast.

I like it, IMHO the best thing to come out of Tourism Australia in a very long time.

It played once in the US
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Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:22 pm

qf2048 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Emirates Engineering to repaint eight Qantas A380s in Dubai new 'armless roo' livery starting March 2018.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... ith-qantas

I'd like to see one of the QF A380's get the oneworld livery. There is plenty of room to fit it!


True but I don’t think it’ll happen, QF really does the absolute minimum with oneworld liveries, can’t even find a 737 to whack one on, but QF’s long association with oneworld probably negates the need for it. Anecdotally it’s the “new to alliance” airlines that seem to be the most keen to paint up aircraft to show they’re part of the club.

Also don’t think there’s any alliance A380s yet (happy to be corrected), a SkyTeam one would look great!
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:25 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
TK is still considering SYD, as per comments yesterday - "Sydney is one of the cities we are looking at opportunities for next year."

See: https://www.independent.ie/business/wor ... 64396.html.

I doubt that this would be non-stop, but I have no idea where the stop would be - as per the relevant ASA, there are no restrictions.

Cheers,

C.


Haha.. the TK in Australia stories are gets comical.

They have been talking up services to Australia for years now and seemingly commit to something and walk away.

Likely best that they don’t bother mentioning it and if it actually happens then we will see it in action.


Maybe they could do the charter for the next significant anniversary of Anzac Day, short term commitment and still say they’ve reached Australia ;)
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:33 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
TK is still considering SYD, as per comments yesterday - "Sydney is one of the cities we are looking at opportunities for next year."

See: https://www.independent.ie/business/wor ... 64396.html.

I doubt that this would be non-stop, but I have no idea where the stop would be - as per the relevant ASA, there are no restrictions.

Cheers,

C.


Haha.. the TK in Australia stories are gets comical.

They have been talking up services to Australia for years now and seemingly commit to something and walk away.

Likely best that they don’t bother mentioning it and if it actually happens then we will see it in action.


They have started to cosy up with the Australian POS market. That in itself means nothing as Lufthansa Grouo and Finnair both maintain a significant sales presence in Australia but don’t operate on-line services, but for a new company to to esrablish a presence here means that they are serious about the Australian market IMHO.
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:51 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
Haha.. the TK in Australia stories are gets comical.
They have been talking up services to Australia for years now and seemingly commit to something and walk away.
Likely best that they don’t bother mentioning it and if it actually happens then we will see it in action.


Yes, I have seen SO many times a story where even the CEO says "Yes, we will be in Australia this year!" and nothing happens. I will believe it when I see a TK tail sitting on the SYD tarmac.
 
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mariner
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:20 pm

CraigAnderson wrote:
More on QF787, sounds like no new orders on Feb22 :(

“We are just taking delivery of the aircraft this year so we really want to see the case working and business case performing the way we expected to,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said. “Once we’re comfortable with that, then we will put the order in for further aircraft to replace the (Boeing) 747s.”

https://www.ausbt.com.au/alan-joyce-qan ... ource=grid


I think this is extraordinary. For years AJ has been pumping up the 787 and said he even took another look at the A350 just in case he was wrong but decided that he wasn't. As recently as October 2016 he referred to it - the 787 - as "a gamer changer":

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-non-sto ... et-to-soar

"Speaking on the sidelines of this week's reveal of the airline's Boeing 787 business class and economy seats, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said the advanced jet would be a "game-changer" for the Qantas international network."

Now that he actually has the aircraft, he seems to be backing off. I wonder what happened?

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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:54 pm

Putting it in perspective mariner it's one of many orders. Let's not jump too quick to that conclusion. I'd day maintaining a financial metric is more important that one option. If there us no take up of options in February then I'll start getting a little worried. ..
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:19 pm

qf2220 wrote:
Putting it in perspective mariner it's one of many orders. Let's not jump too quick to that conclusion. I'd day maintaining a financial metric is more important that one option. If there us no take up of options in February then I'll start getting a little worried. ..


I assume they will order more 787's, I think its highly unlikely they'll just end up with a fleet of eight.

But there seems to me to be a change in attitude.

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planemanofnz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:59 pm

I am shocked that CX's second biggest transfer market for Australians is the United States - yield must be terrible?

"The top five countries visited by Australians flying Cathay Pacific are China, the USA, Japan, the UK and Korea"

See: https://www.ausbt.com.au/cathay-pacific ... -hong-kong.

I understand someone flying SYD - CAN - LAX on CZ, as the price is going to be dirt cheap, but CX would not be?

Cheers,

C.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:02 pm

A friend of mine who travels frequently for work flies the transcon red eyes very often and brought up the idea of westbound red eyes from BNE and MEL to PER.

Something along the lines of:
BNE 0130 PER 0500
MEL 0200 PER 0415 / 0245 0400 DST

Obviously the timings look pretty dire in writing, but would there be a market for this? You would actually get more sleep than on the eastbounds, and it does keep an aircraft off the ground and flying through the night.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:37 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
I am shocked that CX's second biggest transfer market for Australians is the United States - yield must be terrible?

"The top five countries visited by Australians flying Cathay Pacific are China, the USA, Japan, the UK and Korea"

See: https://www.ausbt.com.au/cathay-pacific ... -hong-kong.

I understand someone flying SYD - CAN - LAX on CZ, as the price is going to be dirt cheap, but CX would not be?

Cheers,

C.


From PER and ADL there really isn't a material difference in flight times to the East Coast of the US when flying CX so they would pick up a lot of traffic from there. I did SYD-HKG-JFK and return with CX to burn some QFF points and found the flights to be excellent. Leaving on the same day as the QF flight you arrive in JFK late night and go straight to bed in NYC. Leaving NYC at midnight you arrive in Sydney 2 days later in the late evening and go straight to bed. If you're not in a hurry to get back to work and land first thing in the morning it's actually a really good schedule for jetlag.
 
travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:04 pm

The previous head of QANTAS International, Gareth Evans mused that he could imagine QANTAS having 30-40 787's in the fleet, not the once 65+ once first envisaged when the 787 order was originally placed.

I think it was Gareth Evans again who suggested the QANTAS A330-300 fleet would eventually be replaced by the 787-10.

QANTAS have recently mused that the A380 could be used to fly medium haul routes to SE Asia. This could/would reduce the need for A330’s and subsequently 787’s in this market.

With the MOM expected to come on stream in the mid 2020’s we could potentially see many routes currently flown by A330’s replaced with the smaller MOM, not the larger 787.

With QANTAS having a current fleet of 28 A330’s, with approximately ten of these aircraft dedicated for domestic flying the actual need for 787’s to replace this fleet could be in the low teens.

QANTAS have also talked about the 777X and A350. As with the current situation with the 787-9, if QANTAS do order this aircraft they will need a fleet considerably larger than 8 aircraft to make the type viable.

My guess for the makeup of the QANTAS fleet (No real science, just a gut feel).

QANTAS
787-9 – 13 aircraft (long haul)
787-10 – 14 aircraft (medium haul)
777X – 20 aircraft
A380 – 12 aircraft

Jetstar
787-8 – 14 aircraft
787-9 – 6 aircraft
 
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mariner
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:18 pm

travelhound wrote:
My guess for the makeup of the QANTAS fleet (No real science, just a gut feel).

QANTAS
787-9 – 13 aircraft (long haul)
787-10 – 14 aircraft (medium haul)
777X – 20 aircraft
A380 – 12 aircraft

Jetstar
787-8 – 14 aircraft
787-9 – 6 aircraft


So where would you put all those A320 (family) orders?

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JBusworth
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:19 pm

travelhound wrote:
The previous head of QANTAS International, Gareth Evans mused that he could imagine QANTAS having 30-40 787's in the fleet, not the once 65+ once first envisaged when the 787 order was originally placed.

I think it was Gareth Evans again who suggested the QANTAS A330-300 fleet would eventually be replaced by the 787-10.

QANTAS have recently mused that the A380 could be used to fly medium haul routes to SE Asia. This could/would reduce the need for A330’s and subsequently 787’s in this market.

With the MOM expected to come on stream in the mid 2020’s we could potentially see many routes currently flown by A330’s replaced with the smaller MOM, not the larger 787.

With QANTAS having a current fleet of 28 A330’s, with approximately ten of these aircraft dedicated for domestic flying the actual need for 787’s to replace this fleet could be in the low teens.

QANTAS have also talked about the 777X and A350. As with the current situation with the 787-9, if QANTAS do order this aircraft they will need a fleet considerably larger than 8 aircraft to make the type viable.

My guess for the makeup of the QANTAS fleet (No real science, just a gut feel).

QANTAS
787-9 – 13 aircraft (long haul)
787-10 – 14 aircraft (medium haul)
777X – 20 aircraft
A380 – 12 aircraft

Jetstar
787-8 – 14 aircraft
787-9 – 6 aircraft


I would expect that Qantas would end up with 15 787-9 and 15 787-10, alongside 15 787-8 at Jetstar. Around 20 for the future 777x or A350 fleet sounds about right.
 
redroo
Posts: 303
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:42 pm

The other factor to be mindful of when thinking about qantas ordering aircraft is that it needs to pay for them. In any given year QF could have multiple demands on the balance sheet - fleet upgrades; lounge upgrades; technology upgrades; bond repayments; etc. AJ keeps a tight rein on the balance sheet and is trying not to overcommit or increase borrowings.

They know the 787 works. They just want to make sure they have the money to pay for them!
 
travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:03 am

The A380's will be progressively coming off finance over the next 2-4 years. This will free up a considerable amount of CAPEX for new aircraft purchases.
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1357
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:55 am

travelhound wrote:
The A380's will be progressively coming off finance over the next 2-4 years. This will free up a considerable amount of CAPEX for new aircraft purchases.


Or other Capex requirements....

BTW im sure these surplus capex amounts are already committed ;)
 
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Dan23
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:12 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:00 am

qf789 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
More on QF787, sounds like no new orders on Feb22 :(

“We are just taking delivery of the aircraft this year so we really want to see the case working and business case performing the way we expected to,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said. “Once we’re comfortable with that, then we will put the order in for further aircraft to replace the (Boeing) 747s.”

https://www.ausbt.com.au/alan-joyce-qan ... ource=grid


So does this lead to a confirmation that QF will be keeping OJS/T/U longer?

I'm not so sure, based on Joyce's comments in the interview below (after the 6 minute mark):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ends-video

He still says the 8 787-9's coming this year replace the "older" 747's with only the 6 "young" 747's to remain for future replacement.
146, 319, 320, 332, 333, 380, 717, 733, 734, 73H, 743, 744, 752, 763, 772, 77W, 788, 789, AT7, CR7, DH1, DHT, EM2
 
undertheradar
Posts: 243
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 1:02 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:08 am

redroo wrote:
The other factor to be mindful of when thinking about qantas ordering aircraft is that it needs to pay for them. In any given year QF could have multiple demands on the balance sheet - fleet upgrades; lounge upgrades; technology upgrades; bond repayments; etc. AJ keeps a tight rein on the balance sheet and is trying not to overcommit or increase borrowings.

They know the 787 works. They just want to make sure they have the money to pay for them!


EXACTLY :) Everything is intertwined and there are many reasons for making decisions as redroo points out. Spread expenditure and it doesn't 'freak out' share holders/stock exchange :) You cant just take/separate one aspect of the business and draw 'Henny Penny conclusions', which some people have done :roll: Side note, financial year 2019/20 already includes sizeable expenditure for the A380 refits. Details of the refits are easily found elsewhere. In a nutshell, tweaks to First cabin, New lounge area, tweaks to Economy and ALOT of expensive new seats going into Premium Economy and Business Class. Anyway that's my view :)
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:36 am

planemanofnz wrote:
I am shocked that CX's second biggest transfer market for Australians is the United States - yield must be terrible?

"The top five countries visited by Australians flying Cathay Pacific are China, the USA, Japan, the UK and Korea"

See: https://www.ausbt.com.au/cathay-pacific ... -hong-kong.

I understand someone flying SYD - CAN - LAX on CZ, as the price is going to be dirt cheap, but CX would not be?

Cheers,

C.


PER-HKG-JFK is about the same flying time as PER-SYD-LAX-JFK but is a sigificanrly more convenient route.

East Coast Australia to West Coast North America via Asia is crazy.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
tullamarine
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Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:36 am

ben175 wrote:
A friend of mine who travels frequently for work flies the transcon red eyes very often and brought up the idea of westbound red eyes from BNE and MEL to PER.

Something along the lines of:
BNE 0130 PER 0500
MEL 0200 PER 0415 / 0245 0400 DST

Obviously the timings look pretty dire in writing, but would there be a market for this? You would actually get more sleep than on the eastbounds, and it does keep an aircraft off the ground and flying through the night.


It probably doesn't make sense from a cost point of view. To run these flights, the domestic terminals would need to be staffed after midnight. Currently they are closed from around 11PM until around 5AM (4AM for BNE during summer). The costs of staffing check-in, lounges, baggage handling and apron engineering would be prohibitive for a single flight.

I doubt it would be very attractive option for pax anyway. Given timezone changes (particularly in summer) it makes more sense to have a 10PM flight from the east coast that gets into PER before midnight and then having 6 or 7 hours of proper sleep before going to work.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:52 am

I assume they will order more 787's, I think its highly unlikely they'll just end up with a fleet of eight.

But there seems to me to be a change in attitude.


I, like you, agree that there will eventually be a far larger fleet of 787s than currently. The current fleet size is sub-optimal for an airline of Qantas' size. I do believe, however, that there isn't a pressing need currently for a significant number of more 787s in the next couple of years. Obviously the initial batch of 789s were to replace the remaining 744s and that is largely covered. There is no pressing need to replace the A330s at this stage. They offer a good passenger experience and, given they are largely now paid off or rolled over to second lease terms, are cheap to operate. With fuel prices remaining low, the cost benefits of the 787s are harder to achieve.

Capex is a limited resource and Qantas would be well aware that, in addition to all the other ongoing refurbs etc, it will need to start replacing the 738 fleet over the next 3 years (the oldest 738 will be 20 in 2001). Regardless of whether this fleet is progressively replaced by 737MAX or A320NEOs the costs here will be substantial.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Planesmart
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:02 am

travelhound wrote:
The A380's will be progressively coming off finance over the next 2-4 years. This will free up a considerable amount of CAPEX for new aircraft purchases.

The A380's initial acquisition funding matures. They will be re-financed, with funds used to pay down the maturing A380 loans, for the refits, to acquire other aircraft and assets, and residual A380 value.
 
travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:56 am

Planesmart wrote:
travelhound wrote:
The A380's will be progressively coming off finance over the next 2-4 years. This will free up a considerable amount of CAPEX for new aircraft purchases.

The A380's initial acquisition funding matures. They will be re-financed, with funds used to pay down the maturing A380 loans, for the refits, to acquire other aircraft and assets, and residual A380 value.


Over the last five years Alan Joyce and his team have been fairly committed to paying down / buying out leases on existing aircraft to ensure a large number of aircraft are encumbered.

This strategy seems to be in contrast to the Geoff Dixon days when an aircraft coming off lease would be re-financed.

As a point of interest, in the 2006-08 period Geoff Dixon and co. re-financed much of the 744 fleet to assist with CAPEX of the A380 and its introduction into the fleet. I'd suggest the QANTAS woes in the 2010-2014 period were in part directly related to the inflexibility of these financial transactions and the consequences it had on fleet planning / optimisation.

From this perspective, I believe QANTAS will ensure the A380's remain unencumbered once they come off finance. More realistically, an aircraft like the 787 would probably have more financial leverage if QANTAS did decide they need to raise money to help fund CAPEX. The A330-300 fleet, which are all owned by QANTAS could be an indicator of QANTAS’s fleet financing strategies.

As per Mariners post:

I think the A321LR will be a great aircraft for Jetstar and help them increase their flying to destinations like Bali, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands. These aircraft will probably free up some of the 787's for new markets.

I am not too sure if QANTAS will end up taking this aircraft. My mind says yes, but my heart says no. I suspect QANTAS using a narrow body for long haul flying would simply confuse its product..........and I know they are currently using 737's to fly PER-SIN.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 1753
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:34 am

I am not too sure if QANTAS will end up taking this aircraft. My mind says yes, but my heart says no. I suspect QANTAS using a narrow body for long haul flying would simply confuse its product..........and I know they are currently using 737's to fly PER-SIN.


I doubt if product confusion is too much of an issue. The product available on a QF ticket to AKL for example is already very confusing but no one gets too upset. I assume it would depend on whether they go for a premium J class product on their longer-haul narrowbody service like VA are doing. For Y class, as long as the IFE was similar to 787/A330, I doubt if there would be enough of an issue to disturb Alan Joyce's inner bean-counter.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
qantas747
Posts: 341
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:40 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Emirates Engineering to repaint eight Qantas A380s in Dubai new 'armless roo' livery starting March 2018.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... ith-qantas


Why is it only 8 aircraft? Could this be a pre cursor to a downsize with the 380s?

SYDLAX 2
MELLAX 2
SYDSINLHR 3
Maintenance/HKG/SIN 1

DFW could go all 789s say Daily ex SYD. 4pw MEL and 3pw BNE. Same amount of capacity as now (with no blocked seats) and AJ is on record saying 2 789s are cheaper to operate than 1 380...
Interesting...
 
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vhqpa
Posts: 1363
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:21 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:52 am

qantas747 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Emirates Engineering to repaint eight Qantas A380s in Dubai new 'armless roo' livery starting March 2018.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... ith-qantas


Why is it only 8 aircraft? Could this be a pre cursor to a downsize with the 380s?

SYDLAX 2
MELLAX 2
SYDSINLHR 3
Maintenance/HKG/SIN 1

DFW could go all 789s say Daily ex SYD. 4pw MEL and 3pw BNE. Same amount of capacity as now (with no blocked seats) and AJ is on record saying 2 789s are cheaper to operate than 1 380...
Interesting...


I'm guessing the other 4 will be repainted by someone else, elsewhere.

With QF going easy on a 787 follow up order. I doubt there are any plans to place them on any other routes in the near term (other than the rumoured unannounced BNE-US route)
"There you go ladies and gentleman we're through Mach 1 the speed of sound no bumps no bangs... CONCORDE"

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