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Stitch
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:31 pm

As to the A330 Freighter and the A330 MRTT, Airbus does not necessarily have to move them to the neo platform. Military operators are generally not too concerned with the fuel economy of their aircraft and depending on the utilization, fuel burn can also not be the most important component of an RFP.

Airbus may wish to move both platforms to the A330neo just out of convenience, but considering that current and neo frames are moving down the same FAL, even that is not necessarily an important driver.
 
airbazar
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:52 pm

trex8 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
No but what does that have to do with the fact that no one wants an A338?
There will be so many cheap A332's hitting the used market and available for p2f or p2mrtt conversions that will make a brand new freighter/mrtt based on a brand new A338, financially illogical. That is why no one is asking for it and that is why Airbus hasn't launched it.

Freighters/tankers usually follow the initial pax version EIS by years. The neo isnt even certified and you think people will be lining up to buy the freighter/tanker?? Where were all those 777 freighter orders in the late 90s/early 2000s? Or the 787 ones now???

Exactly. The 777F is a 77L with no windows :) There once was a market for it. Airlines asked for a 77L and Boeing built it. No one is ordering A338's and most importantly no one is asking Airbus for an A338 freighter. A used 242t A332 p2f will already be a formidable freighter at a much lower cost. Heck a 767F would be just as good. UPS just ordered new 767 freighters. That should tell you everything you need to know as to the future of an A338F or 787F.
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:56 pm

With a 8150nm (assume 7500nm real) range it could be quite useful for NZ and SK, based in countries with relatively low populations, but demand for long routes. I agree SA and AR would seem sensible customers as well.
 
drdisque
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:05 pm

This will be a great TATL aircraft to replace 777-200's and older A330's and all A340's still used across the Atlantic.

I can definitely see LH group and IAG being interested (IAG primarily to replace the IB fleet)
 
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Stitch
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:11 pm

drdisque wrote:
This will be a great TATL aircraft to replace 777-200's and older A330's and all A340's still used across the Atlantic.


A330-900 has more than enough range for TATL operations with lower CASM and better sized for 777-200 and A340-300 replacement.
 
trex8
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:55 pm

Turnhouse1 wrote:
With a 8150nm (assume 7500nm real) range it could be quite useful for NZ and SK, based in countries with relatively low populations, but demand for long routes. I agree SA and AR would seem sensible customers as well.

NZ has already sailed on the 787 boat, can't see them going to an A330 now. SK is another story.
I can see CI getting some, they need something smaller than a 307/306 seat A333/A359, they may occasionally need that range also (long way from TPE to anywhere on the western American seaboard or Europe). Run them on East Asia regional/mainland China flights where a 738 is too small and a 300 seater too big, maybe even to Oz/NZ instead of the A359 in low season. Use to start new long haul routes then hopefully eventually upgauge to the A359. Single fleet flying capability for flight crews. Infrastructure in place from running 30 A333/343s since 2000. They could certainly do with the cargo capability compared to a narrowbody like an A321 /737Max10, what is it, a 1/3 of their revenue is still cargo? Acquisition price lower than an A339 or A359 by 260million list vs 296 vs 317. And A I suspect will give bigger discounts on the A338 to move them. The 788 would also work well but why get a new type.
GE also obviously thought it would work for them from Taiwan (even with a small number of A333s already in the fleet) till they went bankrupt after the crashes and HA was left as the only customer.
 
Swadian
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:24 pm

Lots of people here seem to be biased and have pre-determined opinions of whether the A338 will be successful or not. Taking an objective viewpoint, it's going to depend on HA's order. If HA cancels their order before anyone else orders, then the A338 would have NO orders which makes it very unlikely for anyone else to order as there would be no real-life operating parameters or any incentive for financers.

Whereas if HA does take their 6 then the A338 could probably stay a niche frame in the Airbus lineup gaining small orders here and there until freighter / MRTT orders come in. However, 787 production increase and large number of stored, used A332 is going to hurt it.

What we should really be debating is whether HA wants to do HNL-HKG, HNL-BKK, HNL-KUL, HNL-SIN, HNL-MNL, HNL-MEL, or HNL-LHR; just a few of those routes could take up the current 6 and even where the A332 can currently operate, HA could benefit from the lower CASM of A338.
SMS Markgraf
 
ScottB
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:41 pm

PDPsol wrote:
Yes, but what, EXACTLY, are the '787 advantages in efficiency and capability' relative to the A330neo? A330-800neo comparable range/capacity (bit less range) to the B787-9, while A330-900neo comparable (even more range!) to the B787-10. So the question begs itself: what in the world is going on?


The A330-800 and 787-9 don't have comparable capacity. The A330-800 has the same cabin length as the A330-200, at 45.0m, and max cabin width of 5.28m. The 787-9 has cabin length of 48.39m and width of 5.74m. The floor area of the 787-9 is ~17% greater which gives significantly greater space to add more seats. The most similar competitor in the 787 family is the -8.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have a feeling someone else will consider the model...someone like Aerolineas Argentinas, for which the A330-900neo is too much plane but which could use the A330-800 to add flexibility and more European destinations, especially with Norwegian taking it on head-on. South African Airways could take some if it ever gets its financial shape in order, or via a trade-in of A340-300s for A330-800s.


The A330-800 is likely a terrible choice for most carriers which aren't buying for cash and willing to operate the frame for 20-25 years. Because of the dearth of orders so far, lessors and financiers will charge a premium reflecting the likelihood of the -800 being hard to place if the initial operator fails or chooses not to extend the lease beyond the initial term. Even with a lower purchase price from Airbus, the -800 might end up being more expensive thanks to higher finance/lease cost. The direct operating costs of the -900 will likely be only very modestly higher than the -800, and few carriers are likely to need the additional range -- so as airbazar astutely put it, you might as well take the extra "free" seats.

If you're AR hoping to take on Norwegian head-to-head, then you want the lower-CASM choice which would be the -900.

azjubilee wrote:
the A330-800 is up for re-evaluation at the the moment as the needs of the company have evolved. No information has been given either way on the fate of the order, but Boeing is being considered.


IMO the only evolution of "the needs of the company" would be related to the financing costs for the A330-800. Their cash position is reasonably healthy, but they also can't afford to pay cash on the barrel for six A330-800s. Just under half the A330-200 fleet is leased and I'd presume they also want to do lease deals for the A330-800s -- and I expect lessors aren't going to offer terms as attractive as those HA has enjoyed on the -200s (i.e. 6-year operating leases).
 
PDPsol
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:13 pm

ScottB wrote:
PDPsol wrote:
Yes, but what, EXACTLY, are the '787 advantages in efficiency and capability' relative to the A330neo? A330-800neo comparable range/capacity (bit less range) to the B787-9, while A330-900neo comparable (even more range!) to the B787-10. So the question begs itself: what in the world is going on?


The A330-800 and 787-9 don't have comparable capacity. The A330-800 has the same cabin length as the A330-200, at 45.0m, and max cabin width of 5.28m. The 787-9 has cabin length of 48.39m and width of 5.74m. The floor area of the 787-9 is ~17% greater which gives significantly greater space to add more seats. The most similar competitor in the 787 family is the -8.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have a feeling someone else will consider the model...someone like Aerolineas Argentinas, for which the A330-900neo is too much plane but which could use the A330-800 to add flexibility and more European destinations, especially with Norwegian taking it on head-on. South African Airways could take some if it ever gets its financial shape in order, or via a trade-in of A340-300s for A330-800s.


The A330-800 is likely a terrible choice for most carriers which aren't buying for cash and willing to operate the frame for 20-25 years. Because of the dearth of orders so far, lessors and financiers will charge a premium reflecting the likelihood of the -800 being hard to place if the initial operator fails or chooses not to extend the lease beyond the initial term. Even with a lower purchase price from Airbus, the -800 might end up being more expensive thanks to higher finance/lease cost. The direct operating costs of the -900 will likely be only very modestly higher than the -800, and few carriers are likely to need the additional range -- so as airbazar astutely put it, you might as well take the extra "free" seats.

If you're AR hoping to take on Norwegian head-to-head, then you want the lower-CASM choice which would be the -900.

azjubilee wrote:
the A330-800 is up for re-evaluation at the the moment as the needs of the company have evolved. No information has been given either way on the fate of the order, but Boeing is being considered.


IMO the only evolution of "the needs of the company" would be related to the financing costs for the A330-800. Their cash position is reasonably healthy, but they also can't afford to pay cash on the barrel for six A330-800s. Just under half the A330-200 fleet is leased and I'd presume they also want to do lease deals for the A330-800s -- and I expect lessors aren't going to offer terms as attractive as those HA has enjoyed on the -200s (i.e. 6-year operating leases).


Well, if the B787-8 is the better comparable model to the A330-800neo, and if CASM/K is close-to the B787-9, wouldn't this plane make the perfect solution to 'long-thin' routes, with a low CAPEX cost to boot?

Airbus needs to position this model so it presents a viable, less expensive, and hopefully more comfortable, competitor to the Dreamliner.
 
WIederling
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:22 pm

Stitch wrote:
the A330 MRTT


I could see a NEO MRTT making sense. especially the 245 or 251t MTOW boosted version.
together with the existing A340-200 ACTs this would expand on lingering time and fuel offload
by quite a margin.
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KarelXWB
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:38 pm

airbazar wrote:
All of those airlines have had ample time to take a good look at the A338 and have yet to order any.


There are some 120 A330 operators in the world and about half of them have not yet ordered a next generation aircaft. As such, lots of opportunities ahead and we will have to wait several years to see how it all pans out.

IMO, the longevity of the A338 in HA's fleet is 100% dependent on the viability of the Hawaii-Europe market, which I happen to believe it exists but not large enough to tie up 6 frames.


In the long run HA will need to replace some 20 A330s, thus more -800s can be ordered in the future.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:45 pm

ScottB wrote:
PDPsol wrote:
Yes, but what, EXACTLY, are the '787 advantages in efficiency and capability' relative to the A330neo? A330-800neo comparable range/capacity (bit less range) to the B787-9, while A330-900neo comparable (even more range!) to the B787-10. So the question begs itself: what in the world is going on?


The A330-800 and 787-9 don't have comparable capacity. The A330-800 has the same cabin length as the A330-200, at 45.0m, and max cabin width of 5.28m. The 787-9 has cabin length of 48.39m and width of 5.74m. The floor area of the 787-9 is ~17% greater which gives significantly greater space to add more seats. The most similar competitor in the 787 family is the -8.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have a feeling someone else will consider the model...someone like Aerolineas Argentinas, for which the A330-900neo is too much plane but which could use the A330-800 to add flexibility and more European destinations, especially with Norwegian taking it on head-on. South African Airways could take some if it ever gets its financial shape in order, or via a trade-in of A340-300s for A330-800s.


The A330-800 is likely a terrible choice for most carriers which aren't buying for cash and willing to operate the frame for 20-25 years. Because of the dearth of orders so far, lessors and financiers will charge a premium reflecting the likelihood of the -800 being hard to place if the initial operator fails or chooses not to extend the lease beyond the initial term. Even with a lower purchase price from Airbus, the -800 might end up being more expensive thanks to higher finance/lease cost. The direct operating costs of the -900 will likely be only very modestly higher than the -800, and few carriers are likely to need the additional range -- so as airbazar astutely put it, you might as well take the extra "free" seats.

If you're AR hoping to take on Norwegian head-to-head, then you want the lower-CASM choice which would be the -900.

azjubilee wrote:
the A330-800 is up for re-evaluation at the the moment as the needs of the company have evolved. No information has been given either way on the fate of the order, but Boeing is being considered.


IMO the only evolution of "the needs of the company" would be related to the financing costs for the A330-800. Their cash position is reasonably healthy, but they also can't afford to pay cash on the barrel for six A330-800s. Just under half the A330-200 fleet is leased and I'd presume they also want to do lease deals for the A330-800s -- and I expect lessors aren't going to offer terms as attractive as those HA has enjoyed on the -200s (i.e. 6-year operating leases).


There is an easy way around this problem with lessors unwilling to take the A330-800 on. Airbus emulates Boeing, opens it´s own leasing division, if they do not have one already, and leases the A330-800 out themselves. If the base of A330-800 is growing other lessors will step in. Even if no other A330-800 will ever be sold again, 6 frames is hardly the big risk for Airbus.
 
ScottB
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:54 pm

PDPsol wrote:
Well, if the B787-8 is the better comparable model to the A330-800neo, and if CASM/K is close-to the B787-9, wouldn't this plane make the perfect solution to 'long-thin' routes, with a low CAPEX cost to boot?

Airbus needs to position this model so it presents a viable, less expensive, and hopefully more comfortable, competitor to the Dreamliner.


That has been their marketing position regarding the A330neo. The problem is that aircraft are very long-lived capital assets and it may not be worth eating the higher fuel costs spread out over 20-30 years in exchange for a lower up-front cost. Airbus also has to be careful about how they price, lest they cannibalize their own sales of higher-margin A350s.

And you can't really talk about CASM/CASK in a vacuum without looking at how airlines configure their aircraft. The A330-800 has a bit over 5 square meters more floor area than the 787-8, but the 787-9 has nearly the exact same cabin area as the A330-900. The only way to come up with a halfway reasonable comparison is to look at trip costs and then factor in realistic airline configurations with similar premium/economy seat mixes. The manufacturer standard seat counts are notoriously unreliable.

If we take AA as an example -- they operate both the 787-9 and the A330-200 (which has virtually the same cabin area as the -800 will) -- they configure the A332 with 247 seats and the 787-9 with 285. The J cabin is 50% larger on the 787-9 although the A332 has more Y+ seats. I doubt anyone is claiming the A330-800 has trip costs more than 10% lower than the 787-9.
 
trex8
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:12 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
[


There is an easy way around this problem with lessors unwilling to take the A330-800 on. Airbus emulates Boeing, opens it´s own leasing division, if they do not have one already, and leases the A330-800 out themselves. If the base of A330-800 is growing other lessors will step in. Even if no other A330-800 will ever be sold again, 6 frames is hardly the big risk for Airbus.

Couldnt Airbus just guarantee a certain resale value down the road.
 
FA9295
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:15 pm

And the only airline getting them is Hawaiian...
 
deltal1011man
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:39 pm

Stitch wrote:
As to the A330 Freighter and the A330 MRTT, Airbus does not necessarily have to move them to the neo platform. Military operators are generally not too concerned with the fuel economy of their aircraft and depending on the utilization, fuel burn can also not be the most important component of an RFP.

Airbus may wish to move both platforms to the A330neo just out of convenience, but considering that current and neo frames are moving down the same FAL, even that is not necessarily an important driver.

the 330F and Tanker moving over to the NEO will probably be more due to engine OEMs and supply chain members wanting to either move on from the program or OEMs like Rolls wanting to shift everything to the Trent 7000.

It gets to a point where manufacturing a PW4000-100 or a CF6-80E1 will cost more than its worth. Pratt and GE would be better of using the production space for next generation engines at some point.
 
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Polot
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:53 pm

Iirc a big problem with the MRTT is that Airbus would have to redo a lot of the testing as the Neo of course has completely different engines plus new winglets which may alter wake characteristics and other concerns when refueling a jet in close proximity.

Not that it is impossible, but not anything Airbus would be in a rush to do ASAP.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:54 pm

KarelXWB wrote:

IMO, the longevity of the A338 in HA's fleet is 100% dependent on the viability of the Hawaii-Europe market, which I happen to believe it exists but not large enough to tie up 6 frames.


In the long run HA will need to replace some 20 A330s, thus more -800s can be ordered in the future.


Given how much HA seems to have taken a liking to the A321neo/LR, I expect a lot of replacing of 330 routes with 321s, HA doesn't attract that much premium traffic whereby the additional floorspace of a widebody is most useful.
 
Northwest1988
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:22 am

For those of us not as familiar with Airbus wide body’s, is this version the equivalent size of the A330-200?
 
trex8
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:30 am

Northwest1988 wrote:
For those of us not as familiar with Airbus wide body’s, is this version the equivalent size of the A330-200?

the A338 uses the A332 fuselage, the A339 the A333. The only neo changes are the engines, some wing changes and some other systems-cabin, cockpit
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-443068/
 
727200
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:52 am

Paint job so-so; nothing spectacular.

But the plane itself is ugly. Looks like a fat seagull.
 
airbazar
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:19 am

KarelXWB wrote:
airbazar wrote:
All of those airlines have had ample time to take a good look at the A338 and have yet to order any.


There are some 120 A330 operators in the world and about half of them have not yet ordered a next generation aircaft. As such, lots of opportunities ahead and we will have to wait several years to see how it all pans out.

So far those that have started the replacement process have chosen the A339, or A359, or A321neo, or 787. None have chosen the A338.

KarelXWB wrote:
In the long run HA will need to replace some 20 A330s, thus more -800s can be ordered in the future.

They can also order 787's, or A339's, or A321's, or whatever next generation MOM aircraft will be available.
 
incitatus
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:36 am

I for one am really impressed that Airbus decided to let this mutant see the light of day. The Boeing 737-7max now has a direct competitor for the title of loser shrink of the year!
Conservatives against Trump
 
Swadian
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:29 pm

incitatus wrote:
I for one am really impressed that Airbus decided to let this mutant see the light of day. The Boeing 737-7max now has a direct competitor for the title of loser shrink of the year!


Technically the 737-MAX7 is not a shrink as it is still bigger than the original 737-100.

PDPsol wrote:
Well, if the B787-8 is the better comparable model to the A330-800neo, and if CASM/K is close-to the B787-9, wouldn't this plane make the perfect solution to 'long-thin' routes, with a low CAPEX cost to boot?

Airbus needs to position this model so it presents a viable, less expensive, and hopefully more comfortable, competitor to the Dreamliner.


How the heck is the A338 going to have CASM close to the 789 when the A339, which has better CASM than A338, still has somewhat higher CASM (due to lack of composite fuselage) compared to 789?

Any cost advantage that the A338 has over the 788 is highly questionable because:
1. It has higher CASM
2. It has only 6 orders from HA so financers aren't interested (cost of acquisition not necessarily lower)
3. Boeing just hiked 787 production rate so they can cut costs and offer sooner slots
4. 788 is not selling that well either so Boeing may be willing to discount heavily against A338
5. Tons of cheap, used A332 on the market
SMS Markgraf
 
PDPsol
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:05 pm

PDPsol wrote:
Any cost advantage that the A338 has over the 788 is highly questionable because:
1. It has higher CASM
2. It has only 6 orders from HA so financers aren't interested (cost of acquisition not necessarily lower)
3. Boeing just hiked 787 production rate so they can cut costs and offer sooner slots
4. 788 is not selling that well either so Boeing may be willing to discount heavily against A338
5. Tons of cheap, used A332 on the market


Nothing 'questionable' about the A330neo's lower capital acquisition costs compared to the Dreamliner, which is entirely due to the materially lower development costs for the program. Boeing still has OVER $20 billion of capitalized development costs to amortize! Do you really think they have any margin whatsoever to 'be willing to discount heavily against A338'? No, they do not. Their shareholders will not allow them to cut program profitability, and those orders will go to Airbus, not the Dreamliner.

Guess what? Over 600 A330-200 examples in passenger operation right now! Some of these carriers have already selected the Dreamliner due to its much earlier availability and over 6 years of commercial service. The A330-900neo has yet to be certified by the EASA and FAA, and enter service with TP, and the A330-800neo is a further 9 months away from similar certification. Once the A330-900neo enters service, and Airbus releases the 251T MTOW version for both models, the orders should start arriving.

Believe all have seen the news regarding AirAsiaX and their confirmation for their 66-unit A330-900neo order.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sing ... SKBN1FS0JC
 
airbazar
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:39 pm

PDPsol wrote:
Guess what? Over 600 A330-200 examples in passenger operation right now! Some of these carriers have already selected the Dreamliner due to its much earlier availability and over 6 years of commercial service. The A330-900neo has yet to be certified by the EASA and FAA, and enter service with TP, and the A330-800neo is a further 9 months away from similar certification. Once the A330-900neo enters service, and Airbus releases the 251T MTOW version for both models, the orders should start arriving.

Believe all have seen the news regarding AirAsiaX and their confirmation for their 66-unit A330-900neo order.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sing ... SKBN1FS0JC


The discussion is around the A338, not the A339. All of AirAsiaX's orders are for teh A339.
Most A332's where ordered because the A333 did not have the necessary range. Once the A333 acquired that range, the A332 order book dried up, save for very few exceptions. Since you mentioned TP, most of TP's A332's are used leases not new deliveries. Why? Because ordering new A332's hasn't made much sense in a while and ordering brand new A338's will make even less sense when the market gets flooded with used A332's.
 
texl1649
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:51 pm

I assume this remains a play in two ways (a) in case the NMA isn't launched from Boeing, to have a solution closest in size to the 767 remainders, and (b) for future freighter/military sales. The market seems not to have a lot of interest in it, otherwise.

Perhaps, but not likely, it is also a way to compete with a future 797 from a cost/commonality standpoint for A350/A330 operators. Even here, bothering to build and certify it for a very notional future market seems a bit...silly/weird. Even with this type available, and a legacy order for the A330NEO on the books, UA supposedly asked Boeing to spec new build Pax CF-6 763's, which screams "this is a loser."
 
trex8
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:07 pm

I have trouble wrapping my small brain around the idea that a plane which list price costs 36 million more than the other (260 vs 298 million A338 vs A339_)even if having a higher depreciation and possibly higher finance costs (and how much more could that possibly be 1% if that???) would negate the probably 10 or 20 million you save in up front purchase price.
 
777PHX
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:15 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
777PHX wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
AA might trade their A359 orders for some A338's and use those to replace remainder of their 767 fleet


Santa Clause might be real too!


People said the same about UA and the A350 and they upped their order, so maybe Santa really does exist.


The point is, he has no idea either way, so it's a worthless comment.
 
Kadish
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:08 pm

I see IAG ordering them. Makes sense for all of them.
Replacing BA 767/772, new thin routes in South America or Asia for Ib, the same for Air Linus but in USA and even Level can take advantage.
 
PDPsol
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:41 pm

trex8 wrote:
I have trouble wrapping my small brain around the idea that a plane which list price costs 36 million more than the other (260 vs 298 million A338 vs A339) even if having a higher depreciation and possibly higher finance costs (and how much more could that possibly be 1% if that???) would negate the probably 10 or 20 million you save in up front purchase price.


Completely agree; the A330-800neo may be a more viable aircraft than the current market, and A.net posters, would like to think. The A330neo has lower capital acquisition costs relative to the Dreamliner, with amazing range, particularly the 251T MTOW.

One can only imagine Airbus has already been pitching the A330neo to IAG, with IB being a very obvious candidate. AF/KL have already gone with the Dreamliner, while IB's affiliated IAG carrier, BA, has also ordered ALL 3 Dreamliner variants. LOTS and lots of PRC carriers with A330ceo-heavy fleets, Airbus surely lobbying these clients aggressively.

Few aircraft the size of the A330-800neo have a 8,150 nautical mile, or 15,100 km, range, with a LISTED $260 million acquisition price.

Finally, there is the issue of comfort. Carriers typically operate the Dreamliner with a 9-across layout in Y. NH operates 8-across in Y formats, but most carriers want the extra capacity, and profit. However, the A330neo is 8-across in Y. Several reviewers have complained about the Dreamliner's cramped Y cabins. Perhaps this issue alone will convince clients to opt for the less expensive, more comfortable option!
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:00 am

PDPsol wrote:
trex8 wrote:
I have trouble wrapping my small brain around the idea that a plane which list price costs 36 million more than the other (260 vs 298 million A338 vs A339) even if having a higher depreciation and possibly higher finance costs (and how much more could that possibly be 1% if that???) would negate the probably 10 or 20 million you save in up front purchase price.


Completely agree; the A330-800neo may be a more viable aircraft than the current market, and A.net posters, would like to think. The A330neo has lower capital acquisition costs relative to the Dreamliner, with amazing range, particularly the 251T MTOW.

One can only imagine Airbus has already been pitching the A330neo to IAG, with IB being a very obvious candidate. AF/KL have already gone with the Dreamliner, while IB's affiliated IAG carrier, BA, has also ordered ALL 3 Dreamliner variants. LOTS and lots of PRC carriers with A330ceo-heavy fleets, Airbus surely lobbying these clients aggressively.

Few aircraft the size of the A330-800neo have a 8,150 nautical mile, or 15,100 km, range, with a LISTED $260 million acquisition price.

Finally, there is the issue of comfort. Carriers typically operate the Dreamliner with a 9-across layout in Y. NH operates 8-across in Y formats, but most carriers want the extra capacity, and profit. However, the A330neo is 8-across in Y. Several reviewers have complained about the Dreamliner's cramped Y cabins. Perhaps this issue alone will convince clients to opt for the less expensive, more comfortable option!


Even if we entertain the notion that list prices have anything to do with actual purchase prices...it doesn't take a lot of basis points of interest or reductions in residuals to make a 10-12 year lease have payments in favor of the A339.

The 251t MTOW version not only increases the A338's range,it also increases the A339's to over 7000nm, basically A332 range. We've seen first hand how MTOW increases to the A330 pushed orders to the A333. This further increase will be no different.

Also, airline's caring about passenger comfort in Y :lol:
 
amdiesen
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:56 am

Stitch wrote:
As to the A330 Freighter and the A330 MRTT, Airbus does not necessarily have to move them to the neo platform. Military operators are generally not too concerned with the fuel economy of their aircraft and depending on the utilization, fuel burn can also not be the most important component of an RFP.

Airbus may wish to move both platforms to the A330neo just out of convenience, but considering that current and neo frames are moving down the same FAL, even that is not necessarily an important driver.


Hypothesis: The potential tanker derivative of the A338 will not emerge from a paint shop in military (or civilian) colors through the 2020s. The market for MRTTs is simply limited. Many of the potential customers for tankers have already made their commitments via the KC-767 or the RR/GE powered A332MRTT. The ultra long-life frames they are replacing are often the 1950/60s era KC-135s.
Australia has taken a more economically sensible approach by converting used GE powered AB Military and Qantas A332s into a tankers. As pointed out by Stitch, sensitively to engine innovation and fuel efficiency are generally displaced by other priorities. Airbus and Qantas having pre-established and delivering upon a P2T program will inspire remaining MRTT customers, most of which are budget sensitive, to consider this engine-option path.

Hypothesis2: The combination of factors will inhibit the inertia for AB to port the platform to the neo.
 
trex8
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:47 am

amdiesen wrote:
Stitch wrote:
As to the A330 Freighter and the A330 MRTT, Airbus does not necessarily have to move them to the neo platform. Military operators are generally not too concerned with the fuel economy of their aircraft and depending on the utilization, fuel burn can also not be the most important component of an RFP.

Airbus may wish to move both platforms to the A330neo just out of convenience, but considering that current and neo frames are moving down the same FAL, even that is not necessarily an important driver.


Hypothesis: The potential tanker derivative of the A338 will not emerge from a paint shop in military (or civilian) colors through the 2020s. The market for MRTTs is simply limited. Many of the potential customers for tankers have already made their commitments via the KC-767 or the RR/GE powered A332MRTT. The ultra long-life frames they are replacing are often the 1950/60s era KC-135s.
Australia has taken a more economically sensible approach by converting used GE powered AB Military and Qantas A332s into a tankers. As pointed out by Stitch, sensitively to engine innovation and fuel efficiency are generally displaced by other priorities. Airbus and Qantas having pre-established and delivering upon a P2T program will inspire remaining MRTT customers, most of which are budget sensitive, to consider this engine-option path.

Hypothesis2: The combination of factors will inhibit the inertia for AB to port the platform to the neo.

the first 5 Aussie tankers were new build, only the last 2 were modified from ex Qantas planes.
 
WIederling
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:26 am

MRTT users like the Brits that combine airline like use of their tanker frames in "off hours"
would definitely have an eye on a NEO derivation.
Murphy is an optimist
 
olle
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:35 am

Inn general both 788 and 338 seems to be squeezed from all directions of 321 and 789, 339 and 359....

If Boeing MoM comes along both 788 and 338 is dead at least for passenger usage..

the best to be told about 338 passenger is the fact that at least Airbus did not put as much money into the segment as Boeing did.

it will sell a number of copies, the money is spent and in mid 2020 it will be the airbus main freighter model like the A300 used to be.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:38 am

Well you can say i was wrong. I didnt think Airbus would build an airplane with only 6 orders. Has there ever been an airplane with fewer orders at rollout than the A330-800?
 
RalXWB
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:50 am

Kadish wrote:
I see IAG ordering them. Makes sense for all of them.
Replacing BA 767/772, new thin routes in South America or Asia for Ib, the same for Air Linus but in USA and even Level can take advantage.


The 6 or 7 remaining 767s at BA are also replaced by A321s...
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:42 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
Well you can say i was wrong. I didnt think Airbus would build an airplane with only 6 orders. Has there ever been an airplane with fewer orders at rollout than the A330-800?


I suppose it has to do with the more or less fixed R&D budget Airbus reserved for the entire A330neo program. The A338 is part of it, and probably a small portion only. The aircraft will perform just some 300 hours of test flying.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
olle
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:08 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Well you can say i was wrong. I didnt think Airbus would build an airplane with only 6 orders. Has there ever been an airplane with fewer orders at rollout than the A330-800?


I suppose it has to do with the more or less fixed R&D budget Airbus reserved for the entire A330neo program. The A338 is part of it, and probably a small portion only. The aircraft will perform just some 300 hours of test flying.


I think that this is the magic; For a low cost Airbus can keep up competition against the 788.
 
olle
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:09 pm

While AirAsia CEO says that the 339 performs better then expected, I would like to know what this means for the 338 ;-)
 
WIederling
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:38 pm

olle wrote:
While AirAsia CEO says that the 339 performs better then expected, I would like to know what this means for the 338 ;-)

about the same. Relation between A332 and A333 is very well known.

But afaics this is about Boeing having tried to place a bee under Fernandez bonnet so to speak.
For what else would the 787 have been rumored into this?
my guess would be two pronged. A very good offer for 78* and lots of FUD inserted into the environment.
Murphy is an optimist
 
fsabo
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:15 pm

WIederling wrote:
olle wrote:
While AirAsia CEO says that the 339 performs better then expected, I would like to know what this means for the 338 ;-)

about the same. Relation between A332 and A333 is very well known.

But afaics this is about Boeing having tried to place a bee under Fernandez bonnet so to speak.
For what else would the 787 have been rumored into this?
my guess would be two pronged. A very good offer for 78* and lots of FUD inserted into the environment.


Well, good news regarding T1000-TEN performance is also good news regarding T7000 performance. The other major variable would be A330NEO aero improvements. I doubt this was much of an unknown.

In any case, performance news lately seem to be mostly good.
 
PDPsol
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:17 pm

fsabo wrote:

Well, good news regarding T1000-TEN performance is also good news regarding T7000 performance. The other major variable would be A330NEO aero improvements. I doubt this was much of an unknown.

In any case, performance news lately seem to be mostly good.


Absolutely, once A330neo program produces final range, CASK, and operational performance data, interested carriers will assess and analyze against capital acquisition costs and Dreamliner data. Certainly, carriers will start to pay attention when the likes of TP, DL, and D7 start operating their 339 fleets, which should favorably benefit orders for the 338 as well!

Airbus playing a LONG GAME with the wide body market, confronting and competing with Boeing in every sub-market category.
 
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Stitch
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:44 pm

WIederling wrote:
olle wrote:
While AirAsia CEO says that the 339 performs better then expected, I would like to know what this means for the 338 ;-)

about the same. Relation between A332 and A333 is very well known.

But afaics this is about Boeing having tried to place a bee under Fernandez bonnet so to speak.
For what else would the 787 have been rumored into this?
my guess would be two pronged. A very good offer for 78* and lots of FUD inserted into the environment.


Or perhaps it is Fernandez placing a bee under Airbus' bonnet, so to speak.

My guess would be a desire to get A330-900s at A330-300 rates. Talking up the 787 would be his way of inserting FUD into the environment.
 
rigo
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:49 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Just curious, has any variant of a model only had 6 orders this far along in the production process?


The Dassault Mercure only had 10 orders (plus one prototype later converted to a production aircraft) throughout its entire lifetime.
 
WIederling
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:39 am

rigo wrote:
The Dassault Mercure only had 10 orders (plus one prototype later converted to a production aircraft) throughout its entire lifetime.


But those lived a rather happy life ever after. :-))


IMU it would be advisable to differentiate such observations
between a full family or some solitary type ( or even just a prototype )
and a sub model in a family range.

764 was a substantial effort subtype and only sold ~30. in scope of a family of 1000++ frames.
Murphy is an optimist
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:44 pm

My :twocents:
Are the A338 & A339 not the replacement of the A342 and A343 !?
The A350XWB is the replacement of the A345 & A346.
I think Airbus still has to develop a replacement for the original (233mT MTOW) A332 and A333 and the A300-600.
Maybe the slow A338 sales are explained by the fact:
- it has capabilities comparable to the A340-200 (A342).
- there is uncertainty about the performance of the A338 because it's still in development / maiden flight hasn't happened jet. (Especially the performance of the lower MTOW versions).
- Both Airbus and Boeing have sold many A332 and 788 the last decade.
- Uncertainty of MoM development.

But I sill expect the A338 and A339 will get several orders the coming years.
For example I expect AirAsiaX will convert some of their A339 orders into A338 orders.
 
Swadian
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:47 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
My :twocents:
Are the A338 & A339 not the replacement of the A342 and A343 !?
The A350XWB is the replacement of the A345 & A346.
I think Airbus still has to develop a replacement for the original (233mT MTOW) A332 and A333 and the A300-600.
Maybe the slow A338 sales are explained by the fact:
- it has capabilities comparable to the A340-200 (A342).
- there is uncertainty about the performance of the A338 because it's still in development / maiden flight hasn't happened jet. (Especially the performance of the lower MTOW versions).
- Both Airbus and Boeing have sold many A332 and 788 the last decade.
- Uncertainty of MoM development.

But I sill expect the A338 and A339 will get several orders the coming years.
For example I expect AirAsiaX will convert some of their A339 orders into A338 orders.


Why the heck would D7 convert A339 orders to A338 when they get better CASM with the A339 and have A359 coming in to fly longer routes, making A338 range essentially useless?

PDPsol wrote:
fsabo wrote:

Well, good news regarding T1000-TEN performance is also good news regarding T7000 performance. The other major variable would be A330NEO aero improvements. I doubt this was much of an unknown.

In any case, performance news lately seem to be mostly good.


Absolutely, once A330neo program produces final range, CASK, and operational performance data, interested carriers will assess and analyze against capital acquisition costs and Dreamliner data. Certainly, carriers will start to pay attention when the likes of TP, DL, and D7 start operating their 339 fleets, which should favorably benefit orders for the 338 as well!

Airbus playing a LONG GAME with the wide body market, confronting and competing with Boeing in every sub-market category.


Why the heck would A339 success benefit the A338 when the A339 has better CASM and none of those carrier (TP, DL, D7) will need the range of the A338 anyway? I feel like you are just a staunch Airbus fanboy who supports every Airbus model, even the failing A338, even though its failure is partly due to the improved range of the A339 and the success of the A359, both of which ARE AIRBUS MODELS.

Look, NONE of the airlines ordering A339 have ordered ANY A338! So WHY would a financer give a good deal on the A338? And WHY would any of those 600 current A332s be replaced by A338 when the A339 can do the VAST MAJORITY of those missions at lower CASM? None of those Chinese carriers need the A338 when they can order massive amounts of A359 or A339 and 789 or 78X. The same applies to the other Asian regional carriers or TATL carriers, which were the bread and butter of A330 sales. Get real!

Basically, the A338 is a great plane that got killed by the A339 and A359. I'm sure it will get a few more orders from the likes of HA, AR, SU, SA, and AZ, but that probably won't amount to more than 50 units sold until we get Freighter and MRTT orders.
SMS Markgraf
 
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TurboJet707
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Re: 1st A330-800 emerges from the paint shop

Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:57 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Just curious, has any variant of a model only had 6 orders this far along in the production process?


Yes, the Boeing 707-220 (a combination of the 'short' 707-120 body and the larger PW JT4A engines of the 707-320) only ever received 6 orders, from Braniff. One crashed during testing, only 5 were delivered.

I agree, that's a long time ago.

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