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An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:33 pm

Also breaking on the BBC, who report that the flight was bound for Orsk: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43024235
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An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:34 pm

A Saratov Airlines AN-148 disappeared from the radar. No further details are available for the moment.

An Antonov An-148 operated by Saratov Airlines and carrying 65 passengers and six crew went missing shortly after take-off from Moscow’s Domodedovo airport, an emergency services source told Russian media.


Developing
https://www.rt.com/news/418466-passenge ... ng-russia/
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Dahlgardo
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:42 pm

RA-61704
Departed Domodedovo at 1120Z
Reached 6600ft and plummeted to earth at +3300ft/min shortly after that.
All according to FR24, so there's the usual uncertainty to the info.

Image
Last edited by Dahlgardo on Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CrimsonNL
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:45 pm

Dahlgardo wrote:
RA-61704


Airframe info courtesy of Russianplanes.net, with translation;

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=

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JetBuddy
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:46 pm

Oh dear. That's not good. Hoping for survivors, but the odds are not great considering it fell at 3300ft/min.
 
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sudenmorsian
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:51 pm

According to the BBC, there unfortunately does not seem to be any survivors.
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godsbeloved
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:53 pm

Are the fluctuations in airspeed as seen in FR24 normal?

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OA940
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:56 pm

BBC says that according to authorities, there is '' "no chance" anyone could have survived.''. Can a 148 even carry 71 people? Could this be a mechanical failure, seeing that the plane just dived to the ground? No matter what happened this is very sad. RIP to those who died.
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Dahlgardo
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:00 pm

godsbeloved wrote:
Are the fluctuations in airspeed as seen in FR24 normal?

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You will probably not see the fluctuations in the raw ADSB-data, but FR24 only shows a speed/alt once every 10 second time stamp.
Looking at the playback data, the aircraft was accelerating downwards from 1500ft/min to 3300 ft/min quite rapidly, so this was hardly a survivable crash.
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edu2703
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:02 pm

-3400 fpm before signal loss Image
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:09 pm

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/heute/ru ... n-100.html

German news initially reported it as a crash, but now they're reporting the aircraft as missing.
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edu2703
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:12 pm

First images show by Life.ru of what is reportedly the accident scene of Saratov Airlines flight 6W703 near Moscow

Image

Apparently, there are no survivors
 
BREECH
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:18 pm

Oh, gawd, that's so bad. :-( Wonder what happened. And expect the news monkeys to jump on it and start the usual circus. :-(
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conaly
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:21 pm

1TV Rus just showed some pictures, apparently only smaller pieces were found and reports say, there have been falling burning parts in the sky. So it seems the airplane blew up mid air. I'll post a source, once I get one on the net.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:28 pm

RIP to all on-board.... Покойся с миром
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Kilopond
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:30 pm

Life.ru posted an eyewitness video from the crash site:

https://youtu.be/VBGIhF4L1OI
 
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Dahlgardo
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:31 pm

conaly wrote:
1TV Rus just showed some pictures, apparently only smaller pieces were found and reports say, there have been falling burning parts in the sky. So it seems the airplane blew up mid air. I'll post a source, once I get one on the net.


If the aircraft blows up mid-air you would likely find much larger pieces, especially wing and tail sections as the would fall a lot slower.
If there's only small pieces found on the ground, it would suggest the aircraft hit the ground intact at high speed.

These eyewitness accounts are notoriously inaccurate.
The weather also looks foggy with low clouds.
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edu2703
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:33 pm

Metar weather data for Moscow Domodedovo International Airport

Image
 
ltbewr
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:33 pm

Only 6 minutes in the air and it crashes. Per the above posted FlightRadar 24 graphic, it appears to be gaining altitude fine to about 11:25:45 UTC, then seems to drop a bit then rise over the next minute or slightly less, then the altitude line just suddenly drops off at near vertical. One has to believe a catastrophic mechanical, structural failure or an act of terrorism has occurred. It appears to have killed all on board. RIP to those killed.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:36 pm

From me to the crash site is only 30 kilometers...
This plane was built with my participation.
This is terrible.
Last edited by Scorpius on Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
BREECH
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:40 pm

edu2703 wrote:
-3400 fpm before signal loss Image

I'm trying to get to that diagram on FR but can't. Playback is also blocked. Do you need paid subscription to get this?
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edu2703
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:40 pm

According to ADS-B data, the aircraft was falling with 22,000 feet per minute when the signal was lost.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 3429860352
Last edited by edu2703 on Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Solidus
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:41 pm

Some sources say that is collision with helicopter, but no confirmation yet
 
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conaly
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:46 pm

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2018-02-11/3408 ... let_an_148

Short summary, translated: plane disappeared from radar, the crash site is scattered with pieces in a one kilometer radius, no fires on the ground, two bodies already found.
 
edu2703
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:47 pm

RT reporting a possible mid-air collision with a Russian Post Office helicopter. Says pieces of helicopter was found on crash site (Unconfirmed)
 
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zeke
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:59 pm

edu2703 wrote:
-3400 fpm before signal loss Image


The speed altitude readout to me may suggest airframe icing.
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:00 pm

Solidus wrote:
Some sources say that is collision with helicopter, but no confirmation yet



Link-Source: http://www.avherald.com/h?article=4b4cb236&opt=0


"The remains of a second aircraft, a helicopter, were found near the crash site. Russian Media are reporting the two aircraft collided in midair."

Were there any survivors from the helicopter

Rest In peace to all those who perished
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:02 pm

zeke wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
-3400 fpm before signal loss Image


The speed altitude readout to me may suggest airframe icing.


If it isn't a midair collision, as suggested, than I agree.
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:06 pm

Weather indicates broken/overcast at 2600ft with a chance of CB. The aircraft reached a height of around 6000ft. There's little to no chance of a helicopter flying above 2000ft in those conditions, making the chance of an in-flight collision with such an object at an altitude of around 6000ft extremely small. Not impossible, just rather implausible.

Temperature on the ground was reported as -5 celcius. In the clouds at 6000ft it'll be much colder, probably around -10 to -15. Add in a very moisture atmosphere from the reported CB activity, and my money's on icing.
Last edited by B777LRF on Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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edu2703
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:07 pm

Russian Post denies reports that their helicopter was involved in today‘s plane crash, claiming they have no helicopters.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:10 pm

sudenmorsian wrote:
According to the BBC, there unfortunately does not seem to be any survivors.


Very sad news to hear this. :( My thoughts are with all the family and friends who are left behind.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:12 pm

B777LRF wrote:
Weather indicates broken/overcast at 2600ft with a chance of CB. The aircraft reached a height of around 6000ft. There's little to no chance of a helicopter flying above 2000ft in those conditions, making the chance of an in-flight collision with such an object at an altitude of around 6000ft extremely small.
Judging from the speed/altitude graph in reply 10, the speed dropped at 2000ft and it stopped climbing for a brief while (ca 11:22:30).

Could it be that the helicopter was indeed hit at 2000ft, but that the pilots regained control? The mid-air collision might have caused enough damage to cause catastrophic structural failure a few minutes after the mid-air collision?
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edu2703
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:12 pm

Live video from crash site: https://vk.com/video-24199209_456253593
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:15 pm

As stated, my money is on icing as well. -10 to -15 with up and down drafts in CBs sounds like the perfect environment.

Anybody familiar with anti-icing systems on the AN148?
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:25 pm

BBC reports that all 71 people on board that flight have died.
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:36 pm

Dahlgardo wrote:
conaly wrote:
1TV Rus just showed some pictures, apparently only smaller pieces were found and reports say, there have been falling burning parts in the sky. So it seems the airplane blew up mid air. I'll post a source, once I get one on the net.


If the aircraft blows up mid-air you would likely find much larger pieces, especially wing and tail sections as the would fall a lot slower.
If there's only small pieces found on the ground, it would suggest the aircraft hit the ground intact at high speed.

These eyewitness accounts are notoriously inaccurate.
The weather also looks foggy with low clouds.

Read the graph posted above, unless I'm mistaken it appears to have crashed at about ~350kts or ~180 m/s (0.5mach at sea level). Definitely a fast crash. RIP
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:40 pm

If it wasn't a mid air collision then the pitot tubes probably iced, but if they did, why the speed fluctuations? Speed didn't fluctuate like that if we take a pitot tube related incident like AF447 iirc.
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:42 pm

Don't mean to sound shrewd, but I think it's time the Russians take a look at the reliability of the Antonov fleet.
Last edited by sq421 on Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:42 pm

Nicoeddf wrote:
As stated, my money is on icing as well. -10 to -15 with up and down drafts in CBs sounds like the perfect environment.

Anybody familiar with anti-icing systems on the AN148?


They are very skilled at developing de/anti-icing systems in the former CIS. In a another discussion, a member who knows more noted that they have much harsher certification requirements in Russian than in the west when it comes to ice protection, and that western authorities could learn a few things from them.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:45 pm

Raptormodeller wrote:
If it wasn't a mid air collision then the pitot tubes probably iced, but if they did, why the speed fluctuations? Speed didn't fluctuate like that if we take a pitot tube related incident like AF447 iirc.


Isn't the FR24 speed the Ground Speed which is calculated by the aircraft's navigation system and accounts for winds/air density. The Speed on the PFD will be different as that's the speed relative to the air around the aircraft. If they lost airspeed, then Groundspeed will still function (but isn't very useful to the pilots)

I'm wondering if the aircraft had icing given the weather.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:47 pm

edu2703 wrote:
According to ADS-B data, the aircraft was falling with 22,000 feet per minute when the signal was lost.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 3429860352


That sounds a little more accurate than what the first few posters said about a 3400 fpm descent. I was gonna say, some planes climb and descend normally at that rate, hardly a “plummeting to earth” rate. Now 22000 fpm is more like a crashing aircraft.....unfortunately.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:00 pm

I stopped reading after 'Russian' and 'Previous investigations' .... Poor perished passengers.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:07 pm

FabDiva wrote:
Raptormodeller wrote:
If it wasn't a mid air collision then the pitot tubes probably iced, but if they did, why the speed fluctuations? Speed didn't fluctuate like that if we take a pitot tube related incident like AF447 iirc.


Isn't the FR24 speed the Ground Speed which is calculated by the aircraft's navigation system and accounts for winds/air density. The Speed on the PFD will be different as that's the speed relative to the air around the aircraft. If they lost airspeed, then Groundspeed will still function (but isn't very useful to the pilots)

I'm wondering if the aircraft had icing given the weather.


Wouldn't the plane have crashed earlier? I'm thinking of the Fokker that crashed at Dryden in Canada and it struggled to get off of the ground due to the ice on its wings and crashed into trees, let alone climb and bank away from the airport like this Antonov.
 
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:54 pm

Raptormodeller wrote:
If it wasn't a mid air collision then the pitot tubes probably iced, but if they did, why the speed fluctuations? Speed didn't fluctuate like that if we take a pitot tube related incident like AF447 iirc.


AF447 was in a flat stable stall.
Imagine a spin or what the KC-390 prototype experienced.
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OA940
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:05 pm

WIederling wrote:
Raptormodeller wrote:
If it wasn't a mid air collision then the pitot tubes probably iced, but if they did, why the speed fluctuations? Speed didn't fluctuate like that if we take a pitot tube related incident like AF447 iirc.


AF447 was in a flat stable stall.
Imagine a spin or what the KC-390 prototype experienced.


Wait what happened to the KC-390?
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oneskyjet
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:05 pm

This thread title is disrespectfully misleading.
Please change it.
 
CrawleyBen
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:24 pm

Thoughts with those involved in this tragic incident today. RIP

Ben
 
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Aesma
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:25 pm

RIP to the victims.

Raptormodeller wrote:
If it wasn't a mid air collision then the pitot tubes probably iced, but if they did, why the speed fluctuations? Speed didn't fluctuate like that if we take a pitot tube related incident like AF447 iirc.


In AF447 the pitot tube design was criticized, and it is believed the aircraft hit supercool water (liquid water at something like -50°C). No chance of that happening here.

Regular icing yes (affecting lift), but I'm surprised it would happen so quickly.
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Cush
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:39 pm

Reports now state that the pilot refused de-icing prior to departing from Domodedovo (DME).

Also, the pilot requested an emergency landing in Zhukovsky.

http://ren.tv/novosti/2018-02-11/chto-i ... podmoskove
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Aesma
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:49 pm

Cush wrote:
Reports now state that the pilot refused de-icing prior to departing from Domodedovo (DME).


No deicing, OK, that would explain how lift would be lost so quickly. If at take-off there was some ice already on the wings, then it's easier for more ice to accumulate quickly when climbing through cold clouds.
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