BREECH
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:10 am

Scorpius wrote:
No, payments are not small. The average cost of a funeral in Russia is from $500 to $3000. The average salary in the city of Orsk is about 20 000 rubles per month, or about $350. In this respect, insurance payments correspond to the multiple of annual earnings. For the amount of $ 35,000 you can now buy a house in the Moscow region, for example. So the amount of compensation is not small. Another thing that no amount of money will not bring back the dead relatives.

Oh, boy. Do you work for the Pension Fund? I recognize the cynicism. And yes, it is miniscule. Since when insurace payments are considered in relation to the salaries at the place where it happened? In this particular case it may be true. But it's the same amount for any Russian airline in any Russian city. If any Moscovites were onboard, the funeral will be minimum 200,000 rubles, and don't even get me started on Moscow salaries. And if the deceased is the only bread winner for a large family, it's a catastrophe for the surviving members.
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sq421
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:06 am

MHG wrote:
BREECH wrote:
MHG wrote:
Do you want to be taken serious ?

This is no ancient soviet-era Antonov .

Do YOU want to be taken seriously? "Soviet-era Antonov" are working reliably on numerous regional routes, and they are no worse (or older) than some of the MD-80s and DC-9s than ply the skies around the world.

Maybe I should have said it differently ...
Soviet-era aircraft are more prone to technical defects than newer ones simply due to their age.
And I consider the AN-148 as a rather new/modern type.
My reply was simply trying to direct "sq421"´s attention to the fact that non-western made aircraft (including those from soviet-era) are not less safe.
It has much more to do with operational environment/proper maintenance/etc. whether an aircraft is safe - or not.
sq421´s post implied that AN-148 is from the same era as all other "Antonovs" ...

Btw. I flew Motor Sich AN-24 (UR-47297) not long ago and I´m pretty sure I was in a safe aircraft - despite it having had its first flight during soviet-era in 1971 ...



Absolutely didn't mean to say that non-western aircraft aren't capable. In the hindsight, I realise I should have looked up on the age of the frame before I commented.
 
gloom
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:18 am

I was wondering, since some people mentioned ice, and there are also reports on engine out. Are there any past situations where ice falling off nacelle for example would damage the engine? Since this specific crash happened just after flaps retraction acceleration, I was wondering if increased speed could influence ice breaking off and going inside - and if there's any chance that ice would affect engines.

Cheers,
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:40 am

Loganair lost a S360 on departure due to ice ingestion but it was ice accumulated on the ground and ingested when engine anti ice was switched on during the climb out.

Unless there was a speed restriction on the SID I'd imagine they would have been flaps up at this point, even if they were flying a NADP1 departure profile.

Even a dual engine failure rarely leads to a complete loss on control. The chances of losing two are slim but losing control completely afterwards is even slimmer. US Airways, Loganair, BA at LHR, Ryanair Ciampino are a few examples but all hit the surface in a relatively controlled manner. This aircraft hit with a very high rate of descent and little forward movement.

If you're IMC, can't make it to a runway, then I'd imagine they'd adopt a configuration appropriate to the type, minimise the rate of descent and wait for impact. This aircraft had departed controlled flight.
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vhqpa
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:58 am

gloom wrote:
I was wondering, since some people mentioned ice, and there are also reports on engine out. Are there any past situations where ice falling off nacelle for example would damage the engine? Since this specific crash happened just after flaps retraction acceleration, I was wondering if increased speed could influence ice breaking off and going inside - and if there's any chance that ice would affect engines.

Cheers,
Adam


Absolutely, SK had one of its brand new MD-80s turned into a glider after ice broke off the wings and caused a double engine failure. In that case they managed to make a forced landing in a field and fortunately it was a much happier ending unlike the poor passengers on this AN-148.

One would except had this been the case it would have been a much more controlled descent than what happened here.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scandinavian_Airlines_Flight_751
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SAAFNAV
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:01 am

OA940 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Raptormodeller wrote:
If it wasn't a mid air collision then the pitot tubes probably iced, but if they did, why the speed fluctuations? Speed didn't fluctuate like that if we take a pitot tube related incident like AF447 iirc.


AF447 was in a flat stable stall.
Imagine a spin or what the KC-390 prototype experienced.


Wait what happened to the KC-390?


Entered a spin during stall testing, as reportedly a piece of equipment broke loose and shifted aft, resulting in a very far aft CoG. Pilots recovered from the stall approx (reportedly) 1 000' AGL.
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redcoat78
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:55 am

An Italian main newspaper reports that the aircraft was already on fire when crashd but the video doesn't seem to confirm it to me.
I would bet on de-icing procedures. A similar accident occured al early 90s on a Romanian airliner which crashed a few minutes after take-off from Verona VRN.
Weather was bad and investigations reported that the crew refused to receive de-icing operations although being advised by local airport. Ice formations on the wing edge caused the aircraft to lose climbing speed and stall it.
 
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:37 pm

Can you experience somatogravic illusion in the clouds? I realize the few times people have thought this as a cause it's been at night (fly dubai 981) but could this happen in IMC conditions?
 
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:46 pm

sevenair wrote:
. This aircraft hit with a very high rate of descent and little forward movement.

"little forward movement"?
That is the second time you have made that statement, and this is the second time I'm going to ask how you came to that conclusion given the extreme horizontal velocity of the fireball?

In fact I would say that a major portion of the airframe (containing much of the fuel) bounced on first impact and travelled another ½km, breaking up as it went, spewing fuel as it went, with the residual pieces still retaining horizontal velocity as they impacted for their second (& probably final) time.
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VS11
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:55 pm

BBC is reporting that according to the Russsian authorities terrorism is unlikely as the plane was intact as it hit the ground.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43026987
 
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:22 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
sevenair wrote:
. This aircraft hit with a very high rate of descent and little forward movement.

"little forward movement"?
That is the second time you have made that statement, and this is the second time I'm going to ask how you came to that conclusion given the extreme horizontal velocity of the fireball?

In fact I would say that a major portion of the airframe (containing much of the fuel) bounced on first impact and travelled another ½km, breaking up as it went, spewing fuel as it went, with the residual pieces still retaining horizontal velocity as they impacted for their second (& probably final) time.


I agree. This is exactly how I see it too. Very high speed impact with a lot of forward motion. That bounce is a big indicator in this direction. It appears somewhat similar to me of the impact of TK981. A high speed dive that was leveling out either due to pilot input or aerodynamic forces. NOTE: I am not insinuating or implying any similarites as to the cause of these two crashes. Just the similarity to the impact sequence and the debris pattern.
 
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OA940
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:59 pm

Am I blind, because I can't see any aircraft on that CCTV
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:24 pm

OA940 wrote:
Am I blind, because I can't see any aircraft on that CCTV


Nope. There is no aircraft or debris to be seen. Just the explosion. The trail of that explosion however does indicate the nature of the impact.
 
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:38 pm

Boeingphan wrote:
Can you experience somatogravic illusion in the clouds? I realize the few times people have thought this as a cause it's been at night (fly dubai 981) but could this happen in IMC conditions?

Yes, that illusion is possible whenever there is a lack of a clear horizon visible. Whether that was what happened here, very hard to tell without more information.

V/F
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:17 pm

edu2703 wrote:
According to ADS-B data, the aircraft was falling with 22,000 feet per minute when the signal was lost.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 3429860352

Almost seems unreal. One too many zeroes maybe? I don't think even PSA 1171 fell at -22000 fpm, and I can't imagine how a plane would have gained that vertical speed from just 7,000 feet up.
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:41 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
According to ADS-B data, the aircraft was falling with 22,000 feet per minute when the signal was lost.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 3429860352

Almost seems unreal. One too many zeroes maybe? I don't think even PSA 1171 fell at -22000 fpm, and I can't imagine how a plane would have gained that vertical speed from just 7,000 feet up.

Firstly ADS-B data, sampled at 10 sec intervals, is going to be quite suspect in these extreme circumstances. Somebody else can give you the technical reasons, I don't pretend I know every detail.
Secondly, 22,000 ft/min is a straight 250mph, and therefore IMHO perfectly achievable..
Using our old friend, trigonometry, you can choose from either 250mph straight down vertical descent, or 500 mph IAS with just a "shallow" 30° dive.
Add in that the engines were at high throttle settings in the climb, and acceleration could be quite rapid. You need a pilot to tell you if their first reaction to this situation is to throttle back. I suspect these pilots had their hands full without worrying about throttle settings.
But I do understand your underlying point, that from 7,000 feet, falling at 22,000 ft/min means it could all be over in under 20 seconds.

I'm sure there's a sim out there that can replicate this scenario. I personally wouldn't care for it.....
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:11 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have to ask: WHO exactly was on that flight?


It's in Russia, so it has to be some conspiracy, right? I mean, what better way to quietly dispose of someone then to destroy a civil airliner in a high-profile crash outside the nation's capital. As opposed to say, an assassination in a remote border town nobody has heard of.

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Dahlgardo
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:51 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Firstly ADS-B data, sampled at 10 sec intervals, is going to be quite suspect in these extreme circumstances. Somebody else can give you the technical reasons, I don't pretend I know every detail.


The 10 second sample rate is only for the playback functionality of FR24.
The transponder transmits much more than that.

FR24 published this raw data that show the various parameters the aircraft was transmitting the last 20 seconds of flight.
I can't say how accurate the decend rate is when it becoms so extreme in such short time, but it was certainly very very high.

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inflightVideo
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:00 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Firstly ADS-B data, sampled at 10 sec intervals, is going to be quite suspect in these extreme circumstances. Somebody else can give you the technical reasons, I don't pretend I know every detail.


ADS-B is sampled several times per second - as per the data FR24 linked - it only updates once every 10 seconds on the website due to bandwidth constraints.
 
F9Animal
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:43 am

Any news on the crash? Also, is the AN-148 still in production?
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F9Animal
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:52 am

Just read this article I attached. Some are saying the pilot steered the plane away from populated areas to avoid loss of life from it going down into homes or buildings.

There is also drone footage above the crash site, which gives an idea of the planes impact. As others mentioned, it appeared the plane "rained down." I think it was because photos of the wreck had parts laying around in what appeared spread out wreckage. But, it looks to me like a high speed impact.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/91 ... sian-AN148
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sevenair
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:59 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
sevenair wrote:
. This aircraft hit with a very high rate of descent and little forward movement.

"little forward movement"?
That is the second time you have made that statement, and this is the second time I'm going to ask how you came to that conclusion given the extreme horizontal velocity of the fireball?

In fact I would say that a major portion of the airframe (containing much of the fuel) bounced on first impact and travelled another ½km, breaking up as it went, spewing fuel as it went, with the residual pieces still retaining horizontal velocity as they impacted for their second (& probably final) time.


That's the beauty of diversity. We all see different things in this poor quality and grainy video. It doesn't make you any more right than I am nor does it make me any more right than you are.

I still see a largely downward motion with some fire protruding foreword as there would likely have been some foreword motion.

Image
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:08 am

F9Animal wrote:
Just read this article I attached. Some are saying the pilot steered the plane away from populated areas to avoid loss of life from it going down into homes or buildings.

This often gets said, and while I'm sure we would all like to think pilots will do their best to do this, the truth is the majority of the time it is simply a case of the aircraft going wherever it goes, with the pilots not able to control the point of impact significantly, and if it is out of control, simply being along for the ride.

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sevenair
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:15 am

Pilots always 'struggle' to steer the doomed jets away from the orphanage, puppy farm and hospital but these tend to be totally untrue. Just like the witnesses who always see a burning wreckage and always hear 'struggling' engines and the 'officials' who always claim the pilots radioed that they had trouble and were diverting to airfield X when in reality none of this happens.
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wezgulf3
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:21 am

How would anyone know what the pilot did so soon? Are cockpit voice recordings already been listened to?? Doubt it? Lots of speculation being posted on various websites, but I just cannot see how anyone knows anything for fact yet.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:38 am

sevenair wrote:
Pilots always 'struggle' to steer the doomed jets away from the orphanage, puppy farm and hospital but these tend to be totally untrue. Just like the witnesses who always see a burning wreckage and always hear 'struggling' engines and the 'officials' who always claim the pilots radioed that they had trouble and were diverting to airfield X when in reality none of this happens.

Good post. I follow these accident threads for years now and it always starts exactly as you describe...
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:13 pm

sevenair wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
(after viewing the CCTV footage).... I would say that a major portion of the airframe (containing much of the fuel) bounced on first impact and travelled another ½km, breaking up as it went, spewing fuel as it went, with the residual pieces still retaining horizontal velocity as they impacted for their second (& probably final) time.
That's the beauty of diversity. We all see different things in this poor quality and grainy video.
I still see a largely downward motion with some fire protruding foreword as there would likely have been some foreword motion.
As I posted earlier; 22,000 ft/min descent equates to 250mph.
So, with 300mph forward speed and 250 mph downward velocity, let's agree we are both right.

Here are more clues suggesting forward motion...
Express.co.uk wrote:
At least part of the plane crashed into the ground leaving a crater more than 8ft deep and 60ft in diameter, where investigators have found body parts and pieces of the aircraft.

Nearby the plane beheaded a small wood of tall trees as it came down, leaving stunted trunks around 10ft high


TASS wrote:
The type of damage on land, a funnel-shaped trace left by the plane indicates a possible strong impact from the plane hitting the ground

The way the plane broke into pieces also confirms it happened not in the air, but from hitting the ground

http://tass.com/world/989614


sevenair wrote:
Pilots always 'struggle' to steer the doomed jets away from the orphanage, puppy farm and hospital but these tend to be totally untrue. Just like the witnesses who always see a burning wreckage and always hear 'struggling' engines and the 'officials' who always claim the pilots radioed that they had trouble and were diverting to airfield X when in reality none of this happens.
Absolutely correct. And in this case, the combination of white snow covered ground, and thick low cloud, almost certainly means the pilots never saw any houses on the ground even if they had time to look out of the cockpit windows.

Breech wrote:
...And since it happened in a populated area...

Despite the proximity to Moscow, the crash did NOT happen in a populated area. The crash site is vaguely near to two small villages, surrounded by miles of farm and forest land. The bigger risk was skidding across the M5 Trans Siberian highway and taking out a couple of truckers on their way to Vladivostock, .....or Karachi, ... or indeed Cardiff. (see earlier post!)

Image courtesy of TASS
Image
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elinyc
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:02 pm

The Russian investigators just reported that the preliminary results of the flight data recorder indicate that 1)last minutes of flight the aircraft experienced substantial variation of IAS and 2)pitot heat was off during the entire flight for all three tubes. You get the picture. https://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2018/02/13/n_11164933.shtml (in russian).

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WorldFlier
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:59 pm

elinyc wrote:
The Russian investigators just reported that the preliminary results of the flight data recorder indicate that 1)last minutes of flight the aircraft experienced substantial variation of IAS and 2)pitot heat was off during the entire flight for all three tubes. You get the picture. https://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2018/02/13/n_11164933.shtml (in russian).

R.I.P.


For a non-pilot, can someone explain why would pitot heat be off?

Could this have been an instance of the AN-148 (inadvertently) exceeding Vne while having very poor visibility (so no frame of reference) and having a critical structural failure?
 
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Dahlgardo
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:40 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
For a non-pilot, can someone explain why would pitot heat be off?


Failure to follow check-list?

WorldFlier wrote:
Could this have been an instance of the AN-148 (inadvertently) exceeding Vne while having very poor visibility (so no frame of reference) and having a critical structural failure?

Or thinking they were in a stall situation and pushing the nose down to gain speed.

I'm not a pilot either.
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estorilm
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:59 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
elinyc wrote:
The Russian investigators just reported that the preliminary results of the flight data recorder indicate that 1)last minutes of flight the aircraft experienced substantial variation of IAS and 2)pitot heat was off during the entire flight for all three tubes. You get the picture. https://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2018/02/13/n_11164933.shtml (in russian).

R.I.P.


For a non-pilot, can someone explain why would pitot heat be off?

Could this have been an instance of the AN-148 (inadvertently) exceeding Vne while having very poor visibility (so no frame of reference) and having a critical structural failure?

It's hard to exceed Vne when you're heavy on departure and climbing out. In fact it's basically impossible unless you're pointing downwards - but obviously on departure that couldn't be considered "accidental". Even if you're flying without instruments - just following basic throttle position and climb picture you'd have to seriously mess up a lot of stuff and ALL SA / control to exceed Vne. I know you said "with no reference" but I would think you'd have to remove a LOT of "references" for that to occur. :)

I guess I'll bounce some ideas around while we are waiting for more information.

I'd say based on the previous post about pitot heat and the earlier reports of refusing de-ice, along with "substantial airspeed deviation" comment - that at least one and probably a couple of the pitots could have begun to freeze up, and pilots were confronted with unreliable airspeed indications, probably three different numbers assuming they froze up at different rates.
Sounds like the PF could have found himself trusting the airspeed indications a little too long and responded accordingly (pulling throttle for example). Of course the FDR data would also show the same (incorrect) airspeed readings as well, so that's harder to prove - unless the investigators confirm different readings from each pitot which would certainly point to iced pitots when combined with pitot heat being switched off.

If the pitots froze up while climbing, and the static ports remained clear, they would see a faster speed than actual... and would slow down to correct it (heavy in a climb, while pulling in flaps - that wouldn't be pretty).

I'm probably not remembering this 100%, but I recall if the pitot drains remained open and static ports open, front inlet/ram frozen, you'd get essentially no reading, correct? Likewise in that regime of flight it would be very easy to stall if they pulled any power.

Of course we all know these accidents usually have multiple causes - refusal to de-ice may have left some contamination on the wings, and if they flew through any icing conditions bad enough to freeze an un-heated pitot, the wings would likely not be at 100% either - further reducing any margin for error with their airspeed.

Regardless, I can't imagine flying anywhere in Russia with pitot heat off. :?
 
F9Animal
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:17 pm

Pitot tube heat off? Makes me wonder what else was missed?
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F9Animal
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:19 pm

sevenair wrote:
Pilots always 'struggle' to steer the doomed jets away from the orphanage, puppy farm and hospital but these tend to be totally untrue. Just like the witnesses who always see a burning wreckage and always hear 'struggling' engines and the 'officials' who always claim the pilots radioed that they had trouble and were diverting to airfield X when in reality none of this happens.


I agree. I was just quoting from the article. The drone video of the wreckage gives a better idea of the impact and trajectory.
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sccutler
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:31 pm

Profoundly early to speculate, but it's an Internet forum, so speculate we shall.

Frozen/blocked pitot tubes (and flying in those conditions w/o pitot heat, that's a given, the conclusion bolstered by the DFDR report data), yields unreliable speed information.

Like AF447, without the red-herring (and extra distraction) of the disparate FBY sidesticks; the pilots may well have been confused, and the resultant helmet fire prevented them from remembering this: Pitch + Power = Performance.

Tragic.

Let us see where the investigation takes us, but this is a very logical interpretation of the scarce facts.
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mxaxai
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Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:32 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Image


estorilm wrote:

I'd say based on the previous post about pitot heat and the earlier reports of refusing de-ice, along with "substantial airspeed deviation" comment - that at least one and probably a couple of the pitots could have begun to freeze up, and pilots were confronted with unreliable airspeed indications, probably three different numbers assuming they froze up at different rates.
Sounds like the PF could have found himself trusting the airspeed indications a little too long and responded accordingly (pulling throttle for example). Of course the FDR data would also show the same (incorrect) airspeed readings as well, so that's harder to prove - unless the investigators confirm different readings from each pitot which would certainly point to iced pitots when combined with pitot heat being switched off.

While this might be down to FR24's graphing skills, the speed does show significant fluctuations...

Check out any other flight and the speed behaves quite straightforward, very much unlike this doomed flight. Note the dropping airspeed starting at 11:26 despite losing altitude, gaining speed again during the subsequent climb. Also note the very high speed of almost 400 knots at only 6000 ft altitude. Most other flights departing Moscow only reach 300 knots at or above FL100.

Mabye not unlike AF447, except that this crew might have initiated a fatal dive out of a stall that never existed instead of remaining in a stall that wasn't recognised. At -22.000 ft/min they would have had only some 20 seconds to impact and much less than that to identify the situation and recover.
 
estorilm
Posts: 255
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:07 am

Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:53 pm

mxaxai wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Image


estorilm wrote:

I'd say based on the previous post about pitot heat and the earlier reports of refusing de-ice, along with "substantial airspeed deviation" comment - that at least one and probably a couple of the pitots could have begun to freeze up, and pilots were confronted with unreliable airspeed indications, probably three different numbers assuming they froze up at different rates.
Sounds like the PF could have found himself trusting the airspeed indications a little too long and responded accordingly (pulling throttle for example). Of course the FDR data would also show the same (incorrect) airspeed readings as well, so that's harder to prove - unless the investigators confirm different readings from each pitot which would certainly point to iced pitots when combined with pitot heat being switched off.

While this might be down to FR24's graphing skills, the speed does show significant fluctuations...

Check out any other flight and the speed behaves quite straightforward, very much unlike this doomed flight. Note the dropping airspeed starting at 11:26 despite losing altitude, gaining speed again during the subsequent climb. Also note the very high speed of almost 400 knots at only 6000 ft altitude. Most other flights departing Moscow only reach 300 knots at or above FL100.

Mabye not unlike AF447, except that this crew might have initiated a fatal dive out of a stall that never existed instead of remaining in a stall that wasn't recognised. At -22.000 ft/min they would have had only some 20 seconds to impact and much less than that to identify the situation and recover.

Indeed - if they were IMC with unreliable airspeed it's tough for anyone to just close their eyes and fly on memory/feel, especially if the plane is yelling at you.

Of course I tend to assume one is more likely to stall an aircraft (resultant descent rate / crash) in that scenario than realize what's going on and intentionally dive to prevent one (again, resulting in that descent rate / crash).

Even in a dive you'd see a fairly distinct directional debris pattern, which doesn't seem to be the case.

Definitely sounds a little AF447-ish - minus the technological contributors. One could argue Birgenair 301 as well - as far as unreliable ASI and identification/action.

Though both of those accidents weren't really initiated by pilot error.

Man, this report of pitot heat off still has me scratching my head. :crying:
 
Flighty
Posts: 9214
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:53 pm

BREECH wrote:
Scorpius wrote:
No, payments are not small. The average cost of a funeral in Russia is from $500 to $3000. The average salary in the city of Orsk is about 20 000 rubles per month, or about $350. In this respect, insurance payments correspond to the multiple of annual earnings. For the amount of $ 35,000 you can now buy a house in the Moscow region, for example. So the amount of compensation is not small. Another thing that no amount of money will not bring back the dead relatives.

Oh, boy. Do you work for the Pension Fund? I recognize the cynicism. And yes, it is miniscule. Since when insurace payments are considered in relation to the salaries at the place where it happened? In this particular case it may be true. But it's the same amount for any Russian airline in any Russian city. If any Moscovites were onboard, the funeral will be minimum 200,000 rubles, and don't even get me started on Moscow salaries. And if the deceased is the only bread winner for a large family, it's a catastrophe for the surviving members.


1. That is a lot of money in Russia period. Do you know you will get far less (adjusted for purchasing power) from the airline in the USA in case of crash? In the US, the payment is not meant to replace the person, or to admit fault; it is to allow families to attend to their loved one in a time of need. Life insurance is something every responsible person should have in case they die in an accident. Also, lawsuits can be filed.

2. I had a question about flying. If this was an icing problem, does it imply the de-icing system on the An-148 was not active? Surely it has one? Or was the icing condition so massive that it didn't matter?
 
estorilm
Posts: 255
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:07 am

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:13 pm

Anyone checked out google news for "an-148 crash" lately? Dozens of articles now focusing in on ASI / pitot issues.

Some even prematurely declaring the cause outright...

Russia: Deadly plane crash caused by pilots' error on heat
http://www.metronews.ca/news/world/2018/02/13/russian-investigators-study-crashed-plane-s-flight-recorders.html


UPDATE:
https://armenpress.am/eng/news/922547/experts-decode-possible-cause-behind-russian-an-148-airplane-crash.html
ArmenPress reporting specifics of FDR information - their site won't let me copy / paste, but they confirm ASI disagreement including multiple "The Instrument Panel - Compare!" warnings.

They also state that the disagreement escalated to the point of one ASI showing 0 (as I mentioned above, blocked inlet, open drain, open static port?) and another showing upwards of 550 km/h.

Also mentions that a criminal case resulting in deaths due to negligence has been opened. Sounds like they've seen some pretty definitive stuff.
Last edited by estorilm on Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 448
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:15 pm

estorilm wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Image


estorilm wrote:

I'd say based on the previous post about pitot heat and the earlier reports of refusing de-ice, along with "substantial airspeed deviation" comment - that at least one and probably a couple of the pitots could have begun to freeze up, and pilots were confronted with unreliable airspeed indications, probably three different numbers assuming they froze up at different rates.
Sounds like the PF could have found himself trusting the airspeed indications a little too long and responded accordingly (pulling throttle for example). Of course the FDR data would also show the same (incorrect) airspeed readings as well, so that's harder to prove - unless the investigators confirm different readings from each pitot which would certainly point to iced pitots when combined with pitot heat being switched off.

While this might be down to FR24's graphing skills, the speed does show significant fluctuations...

Check out any other flight and the speed behaves quite straightforward, very much unlike this doomed flight. Note the dropping airspeed starting at 11:26 despite losing altitude, gaining speed again during the subsequent climb. Also note the very high speed of almost 400 knots at only 6000 ft altitude. Most other flights departing Moscow only reach 300 knots at or above FL100.

Mabye not unlike AF447, except that this crew might have initiated a fatal dive out of a stall that never existed instead of remaining in a stall that wasn't recognised. At -22.000 ft/min they would have had only some 20 seconds to impact and much less than that to identify the situation and recover.

Indeed - if they were IMC with unreliable airspeed it's tough for anyone to just close their eyes and fly on memory/feel, especially if the plane is yelling at you.

Of course I tend to assume one is more likely to stall an aircraft (resultant descent rate / crash) in that scenario than realize what's going on and intentionally dive to prevent one (again, resulting in that descent rate / crash).

Even in a dive you'd see a fairly distinct directional debris pattern, which doesn't seem to be the case.

Definitely sounds a little AF447-ish - minus the technological contributors. One could argue Birgenair 301 as well - as far as unreliable ASI and identification/action.

Though both of those accidents weren't really initiated by pilot error.

Man, this report of pitot heat off still has me scratching my head. :crying:

I don't know ... If (indicated) airspeed truly dropped to 0 as per the avherald report, I would expect either the plane or the pilot to recognise stall conditions. The natural reaction to decaying airspeed is to push the nose down. The report of a 0-g-period would indicate a forced dive.

I just wouldn't expect this much forward velocity in a fully developed stall. Perhaps they did pull out of a stall (intentionally or not) but it was too late?

Then again, pitot icing might be a red herring and the real cause was ice buildup on control surfaces or even something entirely different.
 
estorilm
Posts: 255
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:07 am

Re: AN-148 with 71 people gone missing

Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:29 pm

mxaxai wrote:
estorilm wrote:
mxaxai wrote:


While this might be down to FR24's graphing skills, the speed does show significant fluctuations...

Check out any other flight and the speed behaves quite straightforward, very much unlike this doomed flight. Note the dropping airspeed starting at 11:26 despite losing altitude, gaining speed again during the subsequent climb. Also note the very high speed of almost 400 knots at only 6000 ft altitude. Most other flights departing Moscow only reach 300 knots at or above FL100.

Mabye not unlike AF447, except that this crew might have initiated a fatal dive out of a stall that never existed instead of remaining in a stall that wasn't recognised. At -22.000 ft/min they would have had only some 20 seconds to impact and much less than that to identify the situation and recover.

Indeed - if they were IMC with unreliable airspeed it's tough for anyone to just close their eyes and fly on memory/feel, especially if the plane is yelling at you.

Of course I tend to assume one is more likely to stall an aircraft (resultant descent rate / crash) in that scenario than realize what's going on and intentionally dive to prevent one (again, resulting in that descent rate / crash).

Even in a dive you'd see a fairly distinct directional debris pattern, which doesn't seem to be the case.

Definitely sounds a little AF447-ish - minus the technological contributors. One could argue Birgenair 301 as well - as far as unreliable ASI and identification/action.

Though both of those accidents weren't really initiated by pilot error.

Man, this report of pitot heat off still has me scratching my head. :crying:

I don't know ... If (indicated) airspeed truly dropped to 0 as per the avherald report, I would expect either the plane or the pilot to recognise stall conditions. The natural reaction to decaying airspeed is to push the nose down. The report of a 0-g-period would indicate a forced dive.

I just wouldn't expect this much forward velocity in a fully developed stall. Perhaps they did pull out of a stall (intentionally or not) but it was too late?

Then again, pitot icing might be a red herring and the real cause was ice buildup on control surfaces or even something entirely different.

Per the link I just posted, I'm inclined to agree with you as it seems to imply they initiated a 30-35 degree dive, though it's stated in a strange way.

Also states that on impact, one ASI continued to show 0 while the other had reached 800 km/h.

Very sad - you can't trade altitude for airspeed if you're out of altitude. :( Sounds like they lost SA entirely and (on top of everything else) rode the dive into the ground.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9214
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Man they forgot to switch the instrument heat on (allegedly). That's too bad. Perfect airplane.
 
Jouhou
Posts: 633
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:49 pm

It looks like this might be a repeat of the March 2011 an-148 crash. It may have lost a wing. I don't think those wings do well in high speeds and are structurally the first thing to fail in the event the aircraft is going too fast. Has anyone noticed wing fragments in any of these photos?
 
estorilm
Posts: 255
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:07 am

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:15 pm

Jouhou wrote:
It looks like this might be a repeat of the March 2011 an-148 crash. It may have lost a wing. I don't think those wings do well in high speeds and are structurally the first thing to fail in the event the aircraft is going too fast. Has anyone noticed wing fragments in any of these photos?

That doesn't really jive with the facts so far - investigators indicated that the highest airspeed (though questionable) was 800 km/h which is below it's top cruise speed - I can't find its Vne.

Even if it lost a wing during the course of these events, that's like saying the ground caused the crash.

Initiating a dive at low altitude and failing to monitor altitude and pull up, OR flying into a stall and failing to recover (both scenarios presumably due to inaccurate ASIs, presumably due to pitot heat being switched off) seem to be the critical events that caused the crash.

The link I posted above states that the crew intentionally dove the aircraft, I'm assuming they gathered this from control input data but this wasn't mentioned specifically.

Just out of curiosity, can someone calculate a rough V/S based on 30-35 degree AOA and 800 km/h? Just curious if that may explain some of the early transponder data.
Last edited by estorilm on Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
estorilm
Posts: 255
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:07 am

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:20 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
estorilm wrote:
UPDATE:
https://armenpress.am/eng/news/922547/experts-decode-possible-cause-behind-russian-an-148-airplane-crash.html
ArmenPress reporting specifics of FDR information - their site won't let me copy / paste,... .

Yes, they did make life rather difficult for me too; so I had to pull a few rabbits out of hats. 8-)

Is this what you wanted? If so, please edit & highlight whichever elements you require...

I'd just leave it all there - thank you!

I was going to try to pull the code or save and view the code, but that's a little ambitious for me right now at work. Though I'm clearly getting a lot done right now. :scratchchin:
 
Jouhou
Posts: 633
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:31 pm

estorilm wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
It looks like this might be a repeat of the March 2011 an-148 crash. It may have lost a wing. I don't think those wings do well in high speeds and are structurally the first thing to fail in the event the aircraft is going too fast. Has anyone noticed wing fragments in any of these photos?

That doesn't really jive with the facts so far - investigators indicated that the highest airspeed (though questionable) was 800 km/h which is below it's top cruise speed - I can't find its Vne.

Even if it lost a wing during the course of these events, that's like saying the ground caused the crash.

Initiating a dive at low altitude and failing to monitor altitude and pull up, OR flying into a stall and failing to recover (both scenarios presumably due to inaccurate ASIs, presumably due to pitot heat being switched off) seem to be the critical events that caused the crash.

The link I posted above states that the crew intentionally dove the aircraft, I'm assuming due to control inputs but this wasn't mentioned specifically.

Just out of curiosity, can someone calculate a rough V/S based on 30-35 degree AOA and 800 km/h? Just curious is that may explain some of the early transponder data.


I'm talking about the last 10 seconds... The 2011 crash involved the pilots intentionally entering a dive during a test flight with a malfunctioning speed indication, did not know their true speed and consequently lost a wing which resulted in a high speed impact into the ground.
Last edited by Jouhou on Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
mats01776
Posts: 154
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:39 pm

Even on a C150, "Pitot Heat On" was on the checklist, if my memory serves.
By the way, you can cut and paste from the web site, by using Firefox, View->Enter Reader View (Ctrl+Alt+R).
 
hivue
Posts: 1698
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:40 pm

Here in the 21st century shouldn't pitot heat be on automatically all the time whenever the airplane is moving for all commercial transport category aircraft?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:13 pm

oficial info:
http://mak-iac.org/rassledovaniya/an-14 ... 18/#116661
(now offline - overloaded?)

info-only topic on russian forum:
https://aviaforum.ru/threads/katastrofa ... ija.45162/

russian text:
Комиссия Межгосударственного авиационного комитета (МАК) по расследованию катастрофы самолета Ан-148-100В RA-61704 информирует, что в лаборатории МАК была завершена расшифровка данных бортового параметрического самописца и проведён предварительный анализ информации.

Предварительный анализ зарегистрированной параметрической информации показал, что в ходе всего полета, закончившегося авиационным происшествием, обогрев всех трех приемников полного давления (ППД) находился в выключенном состоянии. Во всех остальных полетах, имеющихся на самописце (еще 15 полетов), обогрев ППД включался перед взлетом на исполнительном старте.

Взлет был начат около 11:21 (здесь и далее время UTC).

После отрыва на высоте 130-150 м (здесь и далее высота от уровня ВПП) был включен автопилот. В продольном канале автопилота выполнялся режим выхода на заданную высоту, в боковом – горизонтальной навигации. На высоте 550 м была завершена уборка закрылков.

Особая ситуация начала развиваться примерно через 2 мин 30 сек после отрыва на высоте около 1300 метров и приборной скорости 465-470 км/ч, когда стали появляться расхождения в показаниях скорости от МВП1 (модуль воздушных параметров) (ППД1) левого летчика и МВП3 (ППД3, резервный). Самописец не регистрирует значения скорости от МВП2 (ППД2) правого летчика. Существенных отличий в индикации высоты (от тех же источников: МВП1 и МВП3) не было. Через ~25 секунд расхождения достигли ~30 км/ч (скорость от МВП1 была больше) и появилась разовая команда (сообщение экипажу): Vприборная – СРАВНИ. Регистрация разовой команды на данном этапе продолжалась примерно 10 секунд, после чего прекратилась.

Примерно через 50 секунд, на высоте около 2000 метров, данная разовая команда зарегистрирована снова, причем в это раз скорость от МВП3 была больше и продолжала расти, а скорость от МВП1 продолжала падать.

После второго появления указанной разовой команды (сообщения) экипаж отключил автопилот. Весь дальнейший полет проходил в ручном режиме.

Показания скорости от МВП1 продолжали падать и через 34 секунды после отключения автопилота стали равны 0. При этом показания скорости от МВП3 составляли 540-560 км/ч.

В течение примерно 50 секунд после отключения автопилота полет проходил на высоте 1700-1900 м с изменениями вертикальной перегрузки в пределах от 1.5 до 0.5 g.

После этого, при сохранении значений скорости от МВП1 0 км/ч, начали интенсивно падать значения скорости от МВП3 (до 200 км/ч и ниже). В дальнейшем самолет был переведен в интенсивное снижение с углами тангажа на пикирование 30-35 градусов и вертикальной перегрузкой до 0 g.

Столкновение с землей произошло около 11:27:05. Перед столкновением с землей показания скорости от МВП3 начали интенсивно расти и к моменту столкновения составили около 800 км/ч. Показания скорости от МВП1 продолжали быть равными 0.

В момент столкновения с землей угол тангажа на пикирование составлял около 30 градусов, за 4-5 секунд до столкновения у самолета стал развиваться правый крен, который достиг 25 градусов.

Анализ полученной информации продолжается.

Предварительный анализ зарегистрированной информации, а также анализ аналогичных случаев, имевших место в прошлом, позволяют предполагать, что фактором развития особой ситуации в полёте могли стать неверные данные о скорости полёта на индикаторах пилотов, что, в свою очередь, видимо, было связано с обледенением ППД при выключенном состоянии систем их обогрева.

С целью определения причин выключенного состояния обогрева трех ППД комиссией по расследованию запланированы, в том числе, следующие работы:

· расшифровка бортового звукового магнитофона для получения информации о действиях экипажа, выполнении Технологии работы и реакции на сигнализации;

· изучение Технологии работы экипажа с системой обогрева ППД, включая индикацию;

· схемный анализ систем обогрева ППД на предмет возможных неисправностей и отказов;

· выкладка сохранившихся фрагментов систем обогрева ППД.

 
User avatar
longhauler
Posts: 5663
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:00 am

Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:18 pm

elinyc wrote:
The Russian investigators just reported that the preliminary results of the flight data recorder indicate that 1)last minutes of flight the aircraft experienced substantial variation of IAS and 2)pitot heat was off during the entire flight for all three tubes.
R.I.P.


It has happened in the past....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest ... light_6231
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
User avatar
FredrikHAD
Posts: 270
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Re: An-148 crash near Moscow kills all 71 people on board

Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:49 pm

estorilm wrote:
Just out of curiosity, can someone calculate a rough V/S based on 30-35 degree AOA and 800 km/h? Just curious if that may explain some of the early transponder data.


With Angle = 0 degrees being level flight you have:

Vertical speed = sin(Angle)*Airspeed
Horizontal speed = cos(Angle)*Airspeed

Vertical speed = sin(30)*800 = 400 km/h (30 degrees dive)
Vertical speed = sin(35)*800 = 459 km/h (35 degrees dive)

Horizontal speed = cos(30)*800 = 693 km/h

/Fredrik

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