RainerBoeing777
Topic Author
Posts: 37
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:37 pm

Impressive the growth of Ethiopian Airlines and how it became the largest and most profitable airline in all of Africa with the most ultramodern fleet of Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Airbus A350XWB, Boeing 777 and very soon Boeing 737MAX. What will be the next growth in Ethiopian Airlines routes this 2018 receive two Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner and 5 Airbus A350XWB

Image

Americas

Rio de Janeiro (GIG): ET abandoned this market a few years ago, but the Brazilian economy has recovered and its partner Avianca Brasil has grown rapidly, this route can start with ADD-GRU-GIG increases its services to GRU with three flights weekly would be fine

Houston (IAH), Montreal (YUL): Two strong Star Alliance territories, ET would connect all oil countries in Africa with Houston, and Montreal with most of the Middle Eastern countries that operate ET, these routes would be very successful.

Miami (MIA): It is one of the cities with a significant population of people of African descent in the United States, and easily ET would connect Johannesburg and Cape Town with Miami where many South Africans visit this city for leisure and business

Europe

Munich (MUC), Copenhagen (CPH), Istanbul (IST): Strong Star Alliance hubs of great connectivity and would strengthen the ET routes network, the German economy grows and the relations with LH & ET are strong and it is a good time to inaugurate Munich, the strong presence of Scandinavia with ET has grown considerably would be excellent option to add Copenhagen

Amsterdam (AMS): one of the main cities in Europe, and many Dutch tourists visit Africa every year, this route is key for ET

Manchester(MAN): ET has grown considerably in the UK, they are even planning a second daily flight to LHR, but MAN would be an interesting addiction to their route network could connect with several cities in India, the Middle East and Southeast Asia

Moscow(SVO): ET in the past flew to Russia, it would be interesting to reconnect this city with the African continent, despite its recession Russia is still a country with a strong economy

Middle East:

Abu Dhabi (AUH) and Amman (AMM): ET is a leading airline in the Middle East, these routes would serve to excellently expand its network of routes

Australia

Melbourne (MEL) and Perth (PER): With the great growth of ET it is a good time to operate kangaroo routes, they already have the ideal fleet Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner and Airbus A350-900, and would connect these important Australian cities with Europe, South America and Africa

Southeast Asian

Ho Chi Minh (SGN) and Jakarta (CGK): For years ET has been interested in starting these routes and possibly both can be operated via Bangkok

Taipei (TPE): A large territory of Star Alliance and Taiwan with a very growing economy, it would be key to add this route and strengthen ET a leading airline in Asia, to start this route it would be convenient to be operated via Hong Kong

Shenzhen (SZX): China has been key in the growth of ET its largest aircraft operate to China, and its most profitable and high density routes are Beijing and Guangzhou, ET already has five destinations in China and adding this sixth city is key the economy in Shenzhen has grown extensively and it is a Star Alliance territory where it operates its companion Shenzhen Airlines where it would connect with more cities in China
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
User avatar
PRGEC
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:01 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:09 am

I don't see ET coming to GIG anytime soon tbh. Taag struggles to keep their flights here even tagging to GRU, RAM is still consolidating its operations and there are few business ties between Rio and Africa. Moreover, ET seems pretty focused in expanding GRU and EZE since it's becoming daily with 77L in a couple of months.
Libertas quæ sera tamen
 
RainerBoeing777
Topic Author
Posts: 37
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:26 am

PRGEC wrote:
I don't see ET coming to GIG anytime soon tbh. Taag struggles to keep their flights here even tagging to GRU, RAM is still consolidating its operations and there are few business ties between Rio and Africa. Moreover, ET seems pretty focused in expanding GRU and EZE since it's becoming daily with 77L in a couple of months.


The difference between ET and other airlines in Africa such as KQ, SAA, TAAG, RAM and MS, ET is very consolidated in the European market, the Middle East and Asia Hub ADD can make enough connections for business and leisure passengers to connect with GIG, a very popular connection in ET is CAN-ADD-GRU as well as TLV-ADD-GRU or BEY-ADD-GRU, even EZE is opened by connections with TLV and Asia
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
iadadd
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:16 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:52 am

IAH will probably be their next US destination, wait till 4Q18 or 1Q19 for a June 2019 start as that's how they've been announcing new USA flights. MIA doesn't even sound a bit realistic. If anything SFO, SEA, JFK, or even BOS make much more sense. YUL is not happening until Canada expands the bilateral, and even if they do I'm sure expanding YYZ would be there top priority. GIG is not happening, unless it's a ADD-GIG-SCL or ADD-GIG-BOG. And I highly doubt those will appear in the near term.

In Europe, I can only really see them expanding to MUC. I don't think there's much of an CPH-African Market.
ZRH is a possibility; I was shocked to see them start GVA first. Maybe this leaves room for LX to start an ADD flight from ZRH ?

SGN and CGK seems very low yielding, especially if routing through BKK, and I think that's why ET has shelved those plans as of now. TPE is likely in maybe the next 2-3 years. In regards to Mainland China growth, next destination is likely Chongqing. AMM seems likely, but I think an ADD-AUH flight would go to EY and utilize its hub for connections. The UAE market to Ethiopia and Africa in general is very Dubai centric.

Where I see growth for ET is in increased capacity for its African destinations, flying to more secondary cities, and reducing 1 stop flights and making more terminators. Also, India is a potential growth market. BLR, AMD, MAA seem like great additions for ET. In Australia, I believe the market is there for a ADD-SYD or ADD- MEL flight, but I think those will commence once the 777-8x or A35K enters the fleet

But before more network expansion, they need to focus on a major expansion/enhancement for ADD !! It's just so overcrowded and I doubt the current expansion will help by that much. The fact that 90% of flights board by bus is just wrong and messy looking. Nevertheless, interesting times ahead for ET
 
ETinCaribe
Posts: 451
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 11:57 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:14 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Americas

Rio de Janeiro (GIG): ET abandoned this market a few years ago, but the Brazilian economy has recovered and its partner Avianca Brasil has grown rapidly, this route can start with ADD-GRU-GIG increases its services to GRU with three flights weekly would be fine

Houston (IAH), Montreal (YUL): Two strong Star Alliance territories, ET would connect all oil countries in Africa with Houston, and Montreal with most of the Middle Eastern countries that operate ET, these routes would be very successful.

Miami (MIA): It is one of the cities with a significant population of people of African descent in the United States, and easily ET would connect Johannesburg and Cape Town with Miami where many South Africans visit this city for leisure and business


I agree with iadadd, IAH should be the next destination in NA for ET, via LFW/ABJ, most likely. With the price of crude creeping up, there may be more demand for flights to IAH. Miami, I only wish, being from Miami myself, but if we see ET here, it will be with ET Cargo. Rio may come back but in a couple of years.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Europe

Munich (MUC), Copenhagen (CPH), Istanbul (IST): Strong Star Alliance hubs of great connectivity and would strengthen the ET routes network, the German economy grows and the relations with LH & ET are strong and it is a good time to inaugurate Munich, the strong presence of Scandinavia with ET has grown considerably would be excellent option to add Copenhagen

Amsterdam (AMS): one of the main cities in Europe, and many Dutch tourists visit Africa every year, this route is key for ET

Manchester(MAN): ET has grown considerably in the UK, they are even planning a second daily flight to LHR, but MAN would be an interesting addiction to their route network could connect with several cities in India, the Middle East and Southeast Asia

Moscow(SVO): ET in the past flew to Russia, it would be interesting to reconnect this city with the African continent, despite its recession Russia is still a country with a strong economy


I only see MUC as a high possibility here. AMS I think is unlikely unless it is a tag on to MXP/FCO/GVA, etc. I don't really see them trying Moscow.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Middle East:

Abu Dhabi (AUH) and Amman (AMM): ET is a leading airline in the Middle East, these routes would serve to excellently expand its network of routes

Abu Dhabi unlikely. They and the Civil Aviation had a spat with Abu Dhabi as EY's request to fly to ADD was denied.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Australia

Melbourne (MEL) and Perth (PER): With the great growth of ET it is a good time to operate kangaroo routes, they already have the ideal fleet Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner and Airbus A350-900, and would connect these important Australian cities with Europe, South America and Africa

I thought they were using SIN for all Australian traffic and for now, I think it makes sense. [/quote]

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Southeast Asian

Ho Chi Minh (SGN) and Jakarta (CGK): For years ET has been interested in starting these routes and possibly both can be operated via Bangkok

Taipei (TPE): A large territory of Star Alliance and Taiwan with a very growing economy, it would be key to add this route and strengthen ET a leading airline in Asia, to start this route it would be convenient to be operated via Hong Kong

Shenzhen (SZX): China has been key in the growth of ET its largest aircraft operate to China, and its most profitable and high density routes are Beijing and Guangzhou, ET already has five destinations in China and adding this sixth city is key the economy in Shenzhen has grown extensively and it is a Star Alliance territory where it operates its companion Shenzhen Airlines where it would connect with more cities in China


This is where the real action is: China and India will get a good chunk of any new destinations. SZX, Chongqing they have talked about already. In India, I expect Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad. We may also see a foray into Pakistan. I really don't see them going to TPE; may upset the Chinese.
 
pmartin
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:33 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:10 am

Why are you shocked to see gva first vs zrh. Gva makes much more sense, with the international organisation, ngos and commodity hub. And for the little story, just to make the point: 60 pct of all tourists from sub-Saharan Africa (business or leisure) concentrate around the In the Geneva area against 15 pct for Zurich. A signal that international Geneva is a key market driver. LX will never open ADD. Apart for LH from fra no other European airline flies there: not AF, not KL, not BA.
 
pmartin
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:33 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:22 am

Why are you shocked to see gva first vs zrh. Gva makes much more sense, with the international organisations, ngos and a strong commodity hub. For the little story: 60 pct of all tourists from sub-Saharan Africa (business or leisure) coming this o Switzerland concentrate around the Geneva area against 15 pct for Zurich. A signal that international Geneva is a key market driver. LX will never open ADD. Apart for LH from fra no other European airline flies there: not AF, not KL, not BA.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 410
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:20 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

Image

Europe

Manchester(MAN): ET has grown considerably in the UK, they are even planning a second daily flight to LHR, but MAN would be an interesting addiction to their route network could connect with several cities in India, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.


MAN would be an interesting addition for sure, whether it would be an "addiction" remains to be seen! :)

I don't see a great deal of O&D between MAN and ADD, but I do see connecting traffic from MAN to sub Saharan Africa. In particular, to South Africa. I don't see the potential for ET to provide better connections to the Middle East, Far East or Indian Subcontinent, all of which either have (or shortly are likely to have) direct flights. Connections at the MAN end would likely need to focus on BE.

Ideally MAN would be a transit stop to North America, but ET seem unlikely to switch (one or more transits) from DUB, which obviously works well for all concerned. Whether the calculus changes if/when MAN obtains USPC remains to be seen.
 
grjplanes
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:52 am

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:49 am

What is left for them in Africa that they're not serving yet?
All I can really think of that is still possible from ADD is MRU and maybe Mwanza (MWZ) in Tanzania with Q400.
Anything else smaller and secondary in West and Southern Africa they should try and serve through their hubs there. I really wish they would focus a bit more on making the Malawian hub more like the LFW hub, although the market is probably smaller in a way...but through that they can serve a few destinations with Q400 which won't really justify direct 737+ service to ADD...ie: POL, APL, BEW, TET, BUQ, SHO and maybe even then DUR.
If they're part of setting up the new Zambian carrier then that will probably also operate like that in a way, however for Zambian opertions it would be more O&D services as there is more of a market...don't see operating to connection 'hubs' in neighbouring countries as such.

Even a wild idea of using LLW as stop for ADD-PER...not having the hot-high departure issue from ADD, shouldn't have ETOPS issues...with feed from LLW to Southern and East Africa (JNB, HRE, LUN, DAR, NBO)
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1441
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:03 pm

SZX, definitely. In fact, all the Asia and Australia flights suggested. Can't fathom MIA at all......perhaps KIN if they want to connect the Caribbean.

IAH and YUL, basically for feed on partner AC, but not that much locally........In contrast, there are local markets in MSP and SEA........but no real hub feed. And SEA would require a stop in both directions. ET would probably be better off increasing frequency at ORD, before taking on more US cities.

AMM/IST/AUH all sound good fits for the 737......but ATH(not shown), really could use a good African connection.

And perhaps some Indian Ocean destination would be in order, such as RUN/MRU/SEZ might work.
 
berari
Posts: 363
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:23 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next growth in Ethiopian Airlines routes this 2018 receive two Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner and 5 Airbus A350XWB


From your list:

Likely:
- IAH,
- GIG: if EZE doesn't work out 7 days a week as tag on from GRU, then they may split the route 4/3. Note that EZE is supported by 5fth freedom traffic to/from GRU
- MUC
- IST: imminent, although Turkish law states that citizens of most African countries have to fly into Turkey on TK
- AUH: but will open up wounds of bilateral agreements between UAE and Ethiopia
- CGK: imminent
- SGN
- SZX: imminent

Unlikely or not in near term:
- YUL
- MIA: ET focuses on where it can get feeds, UA hubs are its targets
- CPH: been there, deemed too expensive
- AMS: been there, deemed too expensive, even when KL flew into ADD ET stayed out of AMS (and now KL is out)
- MAN
- SVO: past service was politically motivated. It could serve it to attract the growing rich Russians that travel to places like Seychelles, but the ME3 already have that
- AMM: there was talk of serving DAM before the whole place blew up on itself
- MEL, PER: the current approach to Australia is through code share with SQ out of SIN. Don't know how successful that is as of yet.
- TPE


grjplanes wrote:
What is left for them in Africa that they're not serving yet?
All I can really think of that is still possible from ADD is MRU and maybe Mwanza (MWZ) in Tanzania with Q400.
Anything else smaller and secondary in West and Southern Africa they should try and serve through their hubs there. I really wish they would focus a bit more on making the Malawian hub more like the LFW hub, although the market is probably smaller in a way...but through that they can serve a few destinations with Q400 which won't really justify direct 737+ service to ADD...ie: POL, APL, BEW, TET, BUQ, SHO and maybe even then DUR.
If they're part of setting up the new Zambian carrier then that will probably also operate like that in a way, however for Zambian opertions it would be more O&D services as there is more of a market...don't see operating to connection 'hubs' in neighbouring countries as such.

Even a wild idea of using LLW as stop for ADD-PER...not having the hot-high departure issue from ADD, shouldn't have ETOPS issues...with feed from LLW to Southern and East Africa (JNB, HRE, LUN, DAR, NBO)


There are many secondary cities they can serve, and such expansion is now evident with the new DRC destinations like Goma, Mbuji Mayi, Kisangani, and NosyBe in Madagascar. Most large/capital cities have been reached already. I would love to see them operating their own metal to Freetown and Monrovia, but they have not been keen on keeping aircraft on the ground overnight for a return that will meet one of the banks. They could potentially make a return to Durban, Bangui.

The arrival of the 737MAXs will open up more opportunities including the increase in frequency. I expect them to further build up the afternoon bank.
 
iadadd
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:16 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:09 pm

berari wrote:
- IST: imminent, although Turkish law states that citizens of most African countries have to fly into Turkey on TK


Wow, is this really a thing ?
 
User avatar
EightyFour
Posts: 9
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:35 am

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:18 pm

berari wrote:

- IST: imminent, although Turkish law states that citizens of most African countries have to fly into Turkey on TK

.


I'd like to hear more about this as well.
 
iadadd
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:16 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:29 pm

EightyFour wrote:
berari wrote:

- IST: imminent, although Turkish law states that citizens of most African countries have to fly into Turkey on TK

.


I'd like to hear more about this as well.


Just did my research, and what it seems is that it's one of the conditions to be granted eVisa/Visa on arrival into Turkey. Otherwise, as long as those African citizens apply for visas at a Turkish consulate they can fly in on any carrier.
 
berari
Posts: 363
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:44 pm

iadadd wrote:
EightyFour wrote:
berari wrote:

- IST: imminent, although Turkish law states that citizens of most African countries have to fly into Turkey on TK

.


I'd like to hear more about this as well.


Just did my research, and what it seems is that it's one of the conditions to be granted eVisa/Visa on arrival into Turkey. Otherwise, as long as those African citizens apply for visas at a Turkish consulate they can fly in on any carrier.


Thanks for clarifying this @iadadd. I recall reading about it in my haste to apply for a visa a few months ago while on my way to the airport to board an IST-bound flight. I didn't distinguish between e-Visa and traditional visa. TK retains a competitive advantage.
 
User avatar
EightyFour
Posts: 9
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:35 am

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:57 am

Thanks for the information, it makes sense now.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos