flyingqueen
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:34 am

Alaska executive team is so bad. I hear all the people who failed airlines like Southwest are there. Time for new people?
 
XT6Wagon
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:44 am

splitterz wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
I think we're well past the time for the government to come in and split up United, Delta, and American. It's only fair to the rest of the airlines and the travelling public.


Well don't cherry pick on the airline mergers then. Southwest too. AirTran merger should't have happened either.


They tried to stop the WN merger. They had no legal basis to do so since they had almost 0 overlap in routes. AirTran had its major hub in a city that Southwest didn't even serve. IIRC there was 4 routes the two both served in the entire United States.

The only one they could have, and should have stopped was the American Airlines one, as both companies claimed to be viable at the time of the merger and were quite large. Its very hard to object to a merger where one of the partners is dead and the viable airline is simply getting the assets while the body still twitches. United and Continental is one I think you could argue either way, but it was early and both companies faced issues that one could argue would make them non-viable in the near future.

In the case of Alaska Airlines they had an issue, There was no possible way regulators would stop JetBlue from merging with Virgin America, and so they threw a couple billion in a dumpster to prevent that disaster from happening. They were already staring down a massive increase in competition on the west coast from Delta, United, and Southwest. Allowing one more company to enter the potential bloodbath might be the last thing Alaska ever did.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:09 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Just because a plane is leased doesn’t mean it isn’t valuable. You can’t make money flying people if you don’t have an airplane. Does it really matter if it’s leased vs debt?


Let me preface my response by setting a friendly tone. I am not being belligerent, just enjoying the debate.

Full disclosure, I'm not an economist but I am a long time, small businessman. I don't see a lease as an asset, I see it as a debt that ends with you not owning an asset. Perhaps a lease position is worth something, but only if the item is in such great demand that one cannot get their hands on another one of the items from another lessor. In AS's case, they claim they don't really want Airbus planes (the lease item), and they don't even own them after the purchase. Are those aircraft really in such demand that they should pay that much just to lease them?

Again, was this *really* worth spending $2+billion?

The DAL gates may or may not be core to their purchase, but they are real estate no one else can get.


As I understand it, the DAL gates are not owned by VX, or AS. They are a sublease from someone, is it AA or DL? I believe I also read here that any transfer would have to be approved by whatever governing body controls the gate allocation at DAL. Does that governing body have to go along with a sale of a sublease of gate space? If not, that's more of a gamble than an asset.

How solid is the value of their gates at LGA and DCA? Is there a potential liability with regard to regulatory bodies in those markets, such as, losing the slots?

B6 and VX being a better fit might just be another clue why AS saw fit to do this deal.


Granted, but that doesn't necessarily make it a good deal for AS. Ever heard of a "Pyrrhic victory"? The price may have been too high.

SFO being gate-constrained is yet another reason why buying VX brings value to AS. In fact, it’s odd that nobody ever rattled on about VX’s limited footprint in SFO.


You just indirectly reiterated my point. VX didn't have that much space at SFO in the first place ("limited footprint"), so what exactly did they buy?

And if an airline (such as AS) approached SFO and told them they wanted to hub there, do you not think the airport would try to accommodate them? Is an airline purchase the *only* way to get space at SFO?

Ultimately, regardless of what you or I or anyone else on hear thinks, their BoD believed it was worth what they paid.


That's all well and good, but it wouldn't be the first time an airline's BoD made a *mistake*.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:31 pm

n7371f wrote:
The eliminate a competitor - heck yes. Smart move by AS. Virgin A was a huge thorn in the side with undercutting yields. Was it worth the cost? Time will tell.


That's good, but if VX is just replaced by UA, WN, B6 or others on almost all of those routes AS was competing with VX on, AS doesn't really come out ahead. There were few (any?) routes where AS eliminated competition. The remaining competition is not down $2.6+ billion buying out one competitor and now working to digest it. We're seeing those results now.
 
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legacyins
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:31 pm

Just to address the comments about gate space at SFO. VX and now AS currently have ~ 12 Gates (spots) to park their aircraft. It was always the intent that when T1 gets finished, VX would take over T2 with 15-16 Gates. With these Gates, they could run 130-150 daily flights.

It was not VX and now AS intent to be the number one carrier at SFO. They are the number 2 carrier and an option for those who do not fly UA and others. IMO, when AS does consolidates their flights in T2,they will grow.
 
vadodara
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:53 pm

AirFiero wrote:

That's all well and good, but it wouldn't be the first time an airline's BoD made a *mistake*.


They may have overpaid but the counter arguments is to reach a level of 'critical' mass for the brand to survive. The brand itself is worth more than sum of the parts.

VX may not have had an optimal fleet or route str; but AS gets two hubs that can very well fit in its N-S route. In short term, there is pressure on the transcontinental routes. But eventually, AS will get a place especially at slot controlled airports like EWR, JFK etc.

They do have a bit to digest, but once it is done the AS-VX combine will be a formidable competitor in W Coast + Trans continental market.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:54 pm

Airlines lease tons of aircraft, but whether you buy, lease, or both, you need planes if you want to fly people. Had Alaska opted to grow organically, it would have taken many more years and they would have needed many more planes. This acquisition sped up the process. That’s all.

SFO does not have the ability to magically create more gate space. Hence the value in VX to AS and B6. Remember, two airlines were bidding for them, not one. They just had different motivations and financial tolerances to their bids.

The DAL gates can’t be sold, but they also are unique. Whether AS finds success or worth in those gates remains to be seen, but they aren’t something otherwise available so they are giving them s shot. They also are the current gateway to LGA and DCA in-perimeter slots so serve a dual purpose. In due course, that may very well be shed as it wouldn’t appear core to their business model, but their unique/restricted nature means that you don’t just toss them without seeing if you can tweak them for your gain.

I’m not sure why some members feel the need to deride their every move, but they are a business and will have missteps and learning curves at times. They also have done fabulously well and a lot of people and communities have benefited from and appreciate their service. Just like every other airline.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
vadodara
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:38 pm

AirFiero wrote:

That's all well and good, but it wouldn't be the first time an airline's BoD made a *mistake*.


They may have overpaid but the counter arguments is to reach a level of 'critical' mass for the brand to survive. The brand itself is worth more than sum of the parts.

VX may not have had an optimal fleet or route str; but AS gets two hubs that can very well fit in its N-S route. In short term, there is pressure on the transcontinental routes. But eventually, AS will get a place especially at slot controlled airports like EWR, JFK etc.

They do have a bit to digest, but once it is done the AS-VX combine will be a formidable competitor in W Coast + Trans continental market.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:44 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Airlines lease tons of aircraft, but whether you buy, lease, or both, you need planes if you want to fly people. Had Alaska opted to grow organically, it would have taken many more years and they would have needed many more planes. This acquisition sped up the process. That’s all.

SFO does not have the ability to magically create more gate space. Hence the value in VX to AS and B6. Remember, two airlines were bidding for them, not one. They just had different motivations and financial tolerances to their bids.

The DAL gates can’t be sold, but they also are unique. Whether AS finds success or worth in those gates remains to be seen, but they aren’t something otherwise available so they are giving them s shot. They also are the current gateway to LGA and DCA in-perimeter slots so serve a dual purpose. In due course, that may very well be shed as it wouldn’t appear core to their business model, but their unique/restricted nature means that you don’t just toss them without seeing if you can tweak them for your gain.

I’m not sure why some members feel the need to deride their every move, but they are a business and will have missteps and learning curves at times. They also have done fabulously well and a lot of people and communities have benefited from and appreciate their service. Just like every other airline.


Points well taken. Except that I’m not one of those deriding every move. I haven’t had the chance to fly them, but I wouldn’t hesitate to do so. Those chances increase with every new market they serve from SJC. I’m just very skeptical of the price they paid for VX. I honestly do hope it works out for them. I like AS and their business model.
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:52 pm

flyingqueen wrote:
Alaska executive team is so bad. I hear all the people who failed airlines like Southwest are there. Time for new people?


You "heard" pretty incorrectly. Many of them have been with Alaska for 15+ years and had accounting and finance backgrounds before that.
 
n7371f
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:05 am

That's actually part of the problem IMO. This group leading AS needs some broader, bigger thinkers. With taking on Virgin this is more than Seattle. If the under-performance continues, the pressure will grow on BT and BM to get people in there who have a bigger world view.

WkndWanderer wrote:
flyingqueen wrote:
Alaska executive team is so bad. I hear all the people who failed airlines like Southwest are there. Time for new people?


You "heard" pretty incorrectly. Many of them have been with Alaska for 15+ years and had accounting and finance backgrounds before that.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:10 am

AirFiero wrote:
Points well taken. Except that I’m not one of those deriding every move. I haven’t had the chance to fly them, but I wouldn’t hesitate to do so. Those chances increase with every new market they serve from SJC. I’m just very skeptical of the price they paid for VX. I honestly do hope it works out for them. I like AS and their business model.


Well I wasn't meaning to point at you for that, just the general A.net pot-stirrers. Each airline and builder has them.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:25 am

n7371f wrote:
If the under-performance continues, the pressure will grow


Do you always predict you'll like or dislike a movie during the opening credits? Because that's what you're essentially doing here. After PSS on 4/25, AS gets the ability to start really optimizing the routes inherited from VX and placing the right aircraft in the right markets. Additionally, while some markets to/from SFO are being pared back, others will be added.

Point being, we're not even fully into Act One and you're already predicting the end of the world. I get it, you want to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt because you're pro-DL, but try to stay objective when looking at how things are progressing.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
ASFlyer
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:49 am

EA CO AS wrote:
n7371f wrote:
If the under-performance continues, the pressure will grow


Do you always predict you'll like or dislike a movie during the opening credits? Because that's what you're essentially doing here. After PSS on 4/25, AS gets the ability to start really optimizing the routes inherited from VX and placing the right aircraft in the right markets. Additionally, while some markets to/from SFO are being pared back, others will be added.

Point being, we're not even fully into Act One and you're already predicting the end of the world. I get it, you want to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt because you're pro-DL, but try to stay objective when looking at how things are progressing.


We'll see some aircraft adjustments on the schedules for summer and beyond beginning this weekend. There are some minimal adjustments to a few routes in April that are already loaded, as you know, but these coming aircraft swaps are a little more indicative of what the future holds, IMO. I think this is the beginning of a lot more changes to come.
 
airliner371
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:44 am

Listen, this is neither the end of the world for AS nor good news for the company.

I'll say this though, Brad needs to take a long look in the mirror and think about how he can improve, after years of running a great air operation, he's gotten a bunch of misses lately with Horizon and now this news (evidently old news if it was apparently announced in January). Hopefully by the end of the year, this low streak will be well past Alaska because they have a lot of potential to provide meaningful competition on the west coast, and who knows, a combination down the road with B6 could really propel both carriers to provide a meaningful alternative to the big 4.
 
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:47 am

airliner371 wrote:
he's gotten a bunch of misses lately with Horizon and now this news (evidently old news if it was apparently announced in January).


I think this will all be water under the bridge once we see how the rest of the year unfolds. And mea culpa for my earlier statement about a potential loss for Q1; I could have sworn the info was in the Q4/FY17 call, but it was just from the consensus EPS reports I'd read from analysts in an industry brief I receive. That's what I get for posting while sleep deprived!
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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SANFan
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:17 am

ASFlyer wrote:
We'll see some aircraft adjustments on the schedules for summer and beyond beginning this weekend. There are some minimal adjustments to a few routes in April that are already loaded, as you know, but these coming aircraft swaps are a little more indicative of what the future holds, IMO. I think this is the beginning of a lot more changes to come.

Thanks 'Flyer, for the heads up on the long-awaited appearance of AAG's summer schedules! I look forward to Sunday morning to see what things will look like on the peak schedules. (Since it's almost March 20, that means these May 20 -- and June 3 -- skeds are only being finalized only about 2 months ahead. Unusual for AAG.

However, obviously there are lots of things going on at AAG right now so I can understand that the network planners have had a LOT to do! I'm just glad we'll start seeing the new skeds in a few days. I'm quite anxious to see what happens at AS's major CA cities -- that is, throughout the Golden State, and not, pardon me, just the Bay Area...

bb
 
flyingcat
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:37 pm

Did this actually occur? Warning pilots about a financial shortfall ahead of the general public is insanely illegal.

Has anyone heard of the SEC?!
 
hohd
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:44 pm

This may have been discussed earlier. But Alaska and JetBlue should start having a code share/marketing alliance/relationship. Their routes don't overlap much and both would gain and this could also stave off the big 4. Who knows, with the code share, JetBlu can think of flying to Europe and Alaska to Asia.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:54 pm

Perhaps time for AS to start "milking" Chapter 11 too...
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:55 pm

Will B6 takeover AS?
 
Aliqiout
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:22 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
Will B6 takeover AS?

It is not so easy for a smaller airline to "take over" a bigger airline with a larger market cap. A merger however.....
 
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:14 pm

flyingcat wrote:
Did this actually occur? Warning pilots about a financial shortfall ahead of the general public is insanely illegal.

Has anyone heard of the SEC?!


Yes, and they’ll tell you it’s not insider information that’s illegal, but ACTING on it.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
nine4nine
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:33 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
Will B6 takeover AS?

It is not so easy for a smaller airline to "take over" a bigger airline with a larger market cap. A merger however.....



Incorrect....If you actually think about it HP bought AA. So a smaller airline can gobble up a big one.
717 727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 742 748 752 753 762 763 772 773 DC9 MD80/88/90 DC10 319 320 321 332 333 CS100 CRJ200 Q400 E175 E190 ERJ145 EMB120
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:49 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
Will B6 takeover AS?


yes, the writing is on the wall.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:33 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
Will B6 takeover AS?


yes, the writing is on the wall.


Ya I get all my financial advice from graffiti.

Meanwhile we’ve got B6 that lost out on VX, breaks curfews in LGB (why do they even keep that “hub”), cancel flights when it’s sunny, have pissed off employees, face unionization issues, keep getting relentlessly b***hslapped by DL, whine about everybody else, fly crap planes that nobody wants, keep reducing pitch, has a market cap $1B less than Alaska, etc.

But ya, the writings on the wall.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
F9Animal
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:55 pm

Not worried at all. If B6 had been the winner, they too would have faced a similar loss situation. Welcome to the airline industry. I am confident the airline will bounce back to positive earnings.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
tphuang
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:13 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
Will B6 takeover AS?


yes, the writing is on the wall.


Ya I get all my financial advice from graffiti.

Meanwhile we’ve got B6 that lost out on VX, breaks curfews in LGB (why do they even keep that “hub”), cancel flights when it’s sunny, have pissed off employees, face unionization issues, keep getting relentlessly b***hslapped by DL, whine about everybody else, fly crap planes that nobody wants, keep reducing pitch, has a market cap $1B less than Alaska, etc.

But ya, the writings on the wall.


I'm sorry "keep getting relentlessly b***hslapped by DL" is completely off. They kill DL in profit margin in JFK/BOS. Having mint cause DL to have a panic attack and put D1 on a bunch of routes that can't support it.

I think at this point, b6 is pretty happy they "lost out on VX". Having employee issues haven't stopped B6 from making more money per seat than any other domestic airline.

They still have the most generous pitch by far in US. B6 E90 is among the most comfortable domestic experience.

And in NYC/BOS where cancelation among all airlines are frequent, they don't cancel more flights than DL regional.

This is the kind of comment I expect from jumbojet, not you.
Last edited by tphuang on Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:15 pm

tphuang wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

yes, the writing is on the wall.


Ya I get all my financial advice from graffiti.

Meanwhile we’ve got B6 that lost out on VX, breaks curfews in LGB (why do they even keep that “hub”), cancel flights when it’s sunny, have pissed off employees, face unionization issues, keep getting relentlessly b***hslapped by DL, whine about everybody else, fly crap planes that nobody wants, keep reducing pitch, has a market cap $1B less than Alaska, etc.

But ya, the writings on the wall.


I'm sorry "keep getting relentlessly b***hslapped by DL" is completely off. They kill DL in profit margin in JFK/BOS. Having mint cause DL to have a panic attack and put D1 on a bunch of routes that can't support it.

I think at this point, b6 is pretty happy they "lost out on VX". Having employee issues haven't stopped B6 from making more money per seat than any other domestic airline.

They still have the most generous pitch by far in US. B6 E90 is among the most comfortable domestic experience.

And in NYC/BOS where cancelation among all airlines are frequent, they don't cancel more flights than DL regional. This is the kind of comment I expect from jumbojet, not you.


Sorry, I thought we were just making crap up. My bad.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
tphuang
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:17 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
tphuang wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Ya I get all my financial advice from graffiti.

Meanwhile we’ve got B6 that lost out on VX, breaks curfews in LGB (why do they even keep that “hub”), cancel flights when it’s sunny, have pissed off employees, face unionization issues, keep getting relentlessly b***hslapped by DL, whine about everybody else, fly crap planes that nobody wants, keep reducing pitch, has a market cap $1B less than Alaska, etc.

But ya, the writings on the wall.


I'm sorry "keep getting relentlessly b***hslapped by DL" is completely off. They kill DL in profit margin in JFK/BOS. Having mint cause DL to have a panic attack and put D1 on a bunch of routes that can't support it.

I think at this point, b6 is pretty happy they "lost out on VX". Having employee issues haven't stopped B6 from making more money per seat than any other domestic airline.

They still have the most generous pitch by far in US. B6 E90 is among the most comfortable domestic experience.

And in NYC/BOS where cancelation among all airlines are frequent, they don't cancel more flights than DL regional. This is the kind of comment I expect from jumbojet, not you.


Sorry, I thought we were just making crap up. My bad.

You seem to be a reasonable guy, that post is beneath you.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 8256
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I'm sorry "keep getting relentlessly b***hslapped by DL" is completely off. They kill DL in profit margin in JFK/BOS. Having mint cause DL to have a panic attack and put D1 on a bunch of routes that can't support it.

I think at this point, b6 is pretty happy they "lost out on VX". Having employee issues haven't stopped B6 from making more money per seat than any other domestic airline.

They still have the most generous pitch by far in US. B6 E90 is among the most comfortable domestic experience.

And in NYC/BOS where cancelation among all airlines are frequent, they don't cancel more flights than DL regional. This is the kind of comment I expect from jumbojet, not you.


Sorry, I thought we were just making crap up. My bad.

You seem to be a reasonable guy, that post is beneath you.


Far be it for me to get in the way of the same players saying the same things in these threads. The writing is on the wall? Give me a break. But ya, we’ll let the same people make their own crap up and we’re cool with it.

Whatever.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
vadodara
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:41 pm

Seems like AS has inherited several of VX's problems. Just curious if people have thoughts what should be on top of the list to resolve.

My guess would be to optimize the fleet deployment, but that couldnt happen till the single op's certificate and to a certain extent the classes got harmonized. Now that this is out of the way, any guesses where the adjustments will happen?

See more of A320/A321's out of SEA and more 737's on transcon routes from SFO/LaX?
 
AirFiero
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:08 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Points well taken. Except that I’m not one of those deriding every move. I haven’t had the chance to fly them, but I wouldn’t hesitate to do so. Those chances increase with every new market they serve from SJC. I’m just very skeptical of the price they paid for VX. I honestly do hope it works out for them. I like AS and their business model.


Well I wasn't meaning to point at you for that, just the general A.net pot-stirrers. Each airline and builder has them.


Fair enough, understood and agreed.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:31 am

nine4nine wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
Will B6 takeover AS?

It is not so easy for a smaller airline to "take over" a bigger airline with a larger market cap. A merger however.....



Incorrect....If you actually think about it HP bought AA. So a smaller airline can gobble up a big one.

What do you mean incorrect? Even if your one example was right, one instance wouldn't prove what I say was wrong.

HP did not "buy" AS. The merger resulted in AA share holders owning 72% of the combined company.
 
HPRamper
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:30 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
It is not so easy for a smaller airline to "take over" a bigger airline with a larger market cap. A merger however.....



Incorrect....If you actually think about it HP bought AA. So a smaller airline can gobble up a big one.

What do you mean incorrect? Even if your one example was right, one instance wouldn't prove what I say was wrong.

HP did not "buy" AS. The merger resulted in AA share holders owning 72% of the combined company.

Although heavy on gray area, the HP/US deal was the one that leaned more toward HP "buying" the other airline.
US/AA was not the same type of deal.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:20 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
And mea culpa for my earlier statement about a potential loss for Q1; I could have sworn the info was in the Q4/FY17 call, but it was just from the consensus EPS reports I'd read from analysts in an industry brief I receive. That's what I get for posting while sleep deprived!


Thanks for that. I really did make a decent effort in press releases and SEC filings (due within 24 hours if that was an Oops! in the pilot letter) to find that.

WN is also implementing the accounting standard effective 1/1/18, and will have a write-off. Some post-merger special expenses can be expected in any deal. If these really are one-off items the 1Q loss is no big deal.

The hurt on California RASM is a different matter. They're going to need to find sustainable ways to compete. I don't know that they've identified this as an intra-CA problem, a West Coast problem, or SFO/LAX-transcon problem.
 
Route66
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:42 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
[ If these really are one-off items the 1Q loss is no big deal.
.


This needs to be repeated multiple times, or it will be blithely ignored by anet mythmakers.

Sometimes there needs to be a Update sticky on these threads so the person catching up multiple pages will not be misled by the initial ignorant rantings.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:29 pm

Route66 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
[ If these really are one-off items the 1Q loss is no big deal.
.


This needs to be repeated multiple times, or it will be blithely ignored by anet mythmakers.

Sometimes there needs to be a Update sticky on these threads so the person catching up multiple pages will not be misled by the initial ignorant rantings.


Yes, but the operative word is “if”. So far we are going off of one unsubstantiated rumor and a few employee rebuttals. However, reading the tea leaves, I’m guessing the write-offs will nowhere near account for all of the earnings slump. Whether it’s most of it, half of it, or some of it, we won’t know until they report their earnings.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
n7371f
Topic Author
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:05 am

That would be great if the entire loss can be attributed to write downs but based on the monthly updates pertaining to RASM and LF and PRASM estimates, those are all down - and that is not a good combination, usually.

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Route66 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
[ If these really are one-off items the 1Q loss is no big deal.
.


This needs to be repeated multiple times, or it will be blithely ignored by anet mythmakers.

Sometimes there needs to be a Update sticky on these threads so the person catching up multiple pages will not be misled by the initial ignorant rantings.


Yes, but the operative word is “if”. So far we are going off of one unsubstantiated rumor and a few employee rebuttals. However, reading the tea leaves, I’m guessing the write-offs will nowhere near account for all of the earnings slump. Whether it’s most of it, half of it, or some of it, we won’t know until they report their earnings.
 
n7371f
Topic Author
Posts: 1366
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:12 am

I'm not predicting the end of anything. Where did I write that?

I'm just writing that there are some doubts within the industry, and the analyst world, that BT and BM may a) not be the guys to see this larger entity forward, b) may need another set of eyes to get this merger polished off. It's out there.

While fuel is upping the pressure, this is the best airline market maybe ever. And here you've got the best performing airline sans LUV over the last 2 decades with indigestion. To write it off like it's some joke is haphazard at best. If I were your boss and I overheard you telling someone losing money was no big deal, we'd have a talk. Maybe that's how Angle Lake works. I don't know.

Alaska will find its way. But will that be with the current management team and/or vacating Virgin markets or growing California eventually despite the cuts, time will tell...

EA CO AS wrote:
n7371f wrote:
If the under-performance continues, the pressure will grow


Do you always predict you'll like or dislike a movie during the opening credits? Because that's what you're essentially doing here. After PSS on 4/25, AS gets the ability to start really optimizing the routes inherited from VX and placing the right aircraft in the right markets. Additionally, while some markets to/from SFO are being pared back, others will be added.

Point being, we're not even fully into Act One and you're already predicting the end of the world. I get it, you want to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt because you're pro-DL, but try to stay objective when looking at how things are progressing.
 
MIflyer12
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Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:55 am

n7371f wrote:
That would be great if the entire loss can be attributed to write downs but based on the monthly updates pertaining to RASM and LF and PRASM estimates, those are all down - and that is not a good combination, usually.


Write downs - separate for accounting changes and merger issues - will be specified to the nearest $million, if not the nearest $0.1 million. There will probably be some discussion of pilot and FA wage changes to the nearest $million. They will specify fuel burn to the nearest million gallons and probably an average price to the nearest $0.01 per gallon. It's going to be pretty obvious what decline in profitability is due to RASM or load factor.
 
User avatar
EA CO AS
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Re: Alaska tells pilots it will post loss

Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:08 am

n7371f wrote:
I'm just writing that there are some doubts within the industry, and the analyst world, that BT and BM may a) not be the guys to see this larger entity forward, b) may need another set of eyes to get this merger polished off. It's out there.


I'm sorry, but you're mistaken. I'm personal friends with three of the most reputable industry analysts, and no, it's not "out there," as you say. Again, this is just your attempt at spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Not sure why you persist on doing this, but whatever.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group

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