williaminsd
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SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:35 pm

First-time poster. Allow me a moment to say how much I enjoy this forum and to say thank you to all of the participants.

I typically fly 1x/week out of San Diego. At least 2x/month, I fly into SMF's Terminal B. Over the last several months, I've noticed that there is no longer a slow time on the concourse. For all of 2016, and most of 2017, my afternoon return flight often found me enjoying a few minutes of quiet solitude at the gate, minutes I actually cherished and greatly valued in an otherwise slammed day. No longer.

Now the 19-gate concourse is always throbbing with crowds, particularly on the Southwest side. The shops are crowded, the bars are packed (even in the early afternoon), restaurants all with lines to place orders, and the common areas full of soon-to-be-sated flyers.

The official pax counts confirm my observations. Through February, traffic at SMF is up by 12.6% over 2017. Jan and Feb are typically the two slowest months at SMF, so there's lots of room to grow, but 12.6% is impressive YoY no matter how you package it. The Feb increase of 13.5% marks the sixth straight month of double-digit increases.

Also - I've found my morning E175 increasingly full. Since Alaska started this service a year ago, I would sometimes see 25 or fewer fellow pax on board. The last several months I've seen robust loads, even up front.

Perhaps even more impressive are the cargo counts. Total tonnage through the airport is up an astounding 55% over last year and the FedEx MD-11 doesn't seem so lonely on the ramp anymore.

My understanding is that new lounges are being constructed in each terminal to help accommodate the increased crowds, and that renovation plans for Terminal A are to be released this spring.

I haven't seen any new service announcements since Air Canada announced Vancouver, which I believe starts this May. So perhaps the counts may plateau for awhile, but at this rate, SMF could be closing in on 12m pax in 2018.

While I love seeing all the new service coming into my home airport of SAN (Lufthansa to Frankfurt started yesterday.), watching SMF's rapid growth firsthand has been an absolute pleasure and I can only imagine what a thrill it must be for the airport administration.

I wish them continued success.
 
klm617
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:16 pm

Would be nice to see DTW-SMF on Delta the O/D traffic certainly suggests it's viable.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
MIflyer12
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:39 pm

DTW-SMF 5x weekly didn't last long in 2010.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... es-apr-10/
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:58 pm

Welcome to A.net. Happy to hear about your observations at SMF.
-Dave
 
ScottB
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:07 pm

williaminsd wrote:
The official pax counts confirm my observations. Through February, traffic at SMF is up by 12.6% over 2017. Jan and Feb are typically the two slowest months at SMF, so there's lots of room to grow, but 12.6% is impressive YoY no matter how you package it. The Feb increase of 13.5% marks the sixth straight month of double-digit increases.


Assuming the economy remains in good shape, SMF should reach one million passengers in a month for only the third time in its history (and the first time since the Great Recession) this summer.

williaminsd wrote:
My understanding is that new lounges are being constructed in each terminal to help accommodate the increased crowds, and that renovation plans for Terminal A are to be released this spring.


I'm not sure I understand the logic in renovating Terminal A, though. Terminal B was obviously constructed to accommodate future expansion and is not fully utilized at present. Terminal A is, relatively speaking, very lightly-used. I get that it's only 20 years old, but it might just make more sense to consolidate everything into an expanded B and mothball A until demand requires its use or simply demolish it.
 
klm617
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:07 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
DTW-SMF 5x weekly didn't last long in 2010.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... es-apr-10/



That was 8 years ago a lot has changed since then.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:14 pm

OP: “Hey guys, lets talk about SMF.”
klm617: “DTW.”
-Dave
 
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flymco753
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:15 pm

klm617 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
DTW-SMF 5x weekly didn't last long in 2010.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... es-apr-10/



That was 8 years ago a lot has changed since then.
In the lower 48, per DOT, it's DTW's 2nd unserved, 4th if you include ANC and HNL. DTW is in the top 5 for SMF too, so perhaps this can be a target for SMF in the 2 year time frame.
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ericm2031
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:41 pm

WN has been on a tear there recently. It’s one of their only west coast cities they have expansion room and can fend off AS. They’ve now made it an international gateway and I wouldn’t be surprised if it became a Hawaii launch spot as well.

A couple years ago I thought they should just consolidate both terminals there buy now I don’t think it’s possible unless they expand the concourse.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:45 pm

I’d like to see a few unlikely routes - SMF-PSP and SMF-SBA. Tough with WN on BUR and ONT.
-Dave
 
MIflyer12
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:53 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
DTW-SMF 5x weekly didn't last long in 2010.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... es-apr-10/



That was 8 years ago a lot has changed since then.
In the lower 48, per DOT, it's DTW's 2nd unserved, 4th if you include ANC and HNL. DTW is in the top 5 for SMF too, so perhaps this can be a target for SMF in the 2 year time frame.


You can rationalize that but there are many competing hubs between DTW and SMF. There's also ample LCC competition into OAK and SFO. Delta isn't going to get high yields into SMF when Spirit has $114 fares DTW-OAK.
 
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nikeson13
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:08 pm

Terminal B is actually pretty full, but there is still some room. B6 has moved over from A recently, and you also have AM, AS, HA, WN, Y4, and soon to be AC. The western WN gates (B12-23) have high utilization as well as some of the eastern gates (B4-11) IIRC. A is actually pretty busy at peak times, pushing the security lines beyond capacity at some times of the day (morning flights can get the line into the parking garage, almost been caught in it twice) and B is also being pushed a bit, but is more consistently full throughout the day and can still handle the capacity pretty well. A needs more security now(which they are working on), and B will needs some more gates in less than a decade if the growth rate stays near 10% or more. Check out the Master Plan from the start of 2017 https://sacramento.aero/scas/about/planning_design Keep in mind they have blown through forecasted growth targets so expect timescales to be moved up.

PS. I flew through it 2 weeks ago and A10-A17 have been fully remodeled and is very nice. And the increase in cargo is coming primarily from ATI flights for Prime Air that moved over from the non-ILS equipped SCK.
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amadorE175
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:16 pm

Welcome! SAN and SMF are my home airports and it's good to see some recognition for the not often discussed SMF on here. We've certainly seen plenty to get excited about in the past few years.

ScottB wrote:

I'm not sure I understand the logic in renovating Terminal A, though. Terminal B was obviously constructed to accommodate future expansion and is not fully utilized at present. Terminal A is, relatively speaking, very lightly-used. I get that it's only 20 years old, but it might just make more sense to consolidate everything into an expanded B and mothball A until demand requires its use or simply demolish it.


Last time I checked, the renovations were primarily focused on making more space in the security area. As it is, lines flow into the parking bridge, escalator areas, and onto the ticketing level during peak times. There's some work going on in the area between ticketing and baggage claim right now. I'm not sure if this is part of the effort to expand the security area. The other renovation work should be to the holdrooms and, I would think, center on providing power to more people. Charging stations are pretty hard to get in A. It'd be nice if they could consolidate in B but that can't happen until B is expanded. I agree with Ericm2031. I don't think there are enough gates at B to accommodate all the flights from A.

williaminsd wrote:
Also - I've found my morning E175 increasingly full. Since Alaska started this service a year ago, I would sometimes see 25 or fewer fellow pax on board. The last several months I've seen robust loads, even up front.


I do the opposite commute every other month or so, and I've had the same observation. Went from very light loads to entirely full the last couple of times I flew. That's good to see. Hopefully AS will add another frequency and some new destinations in the next couple of years. WN has a couple new daily flights starting in the next couple of weeks (AUS, MCO, STL) and I'll be interested in seeing how those do.

As for international stuff, WN just started a weekly SJD flight and AS should be brining theirs back during the summer. From January: The airport is also putting together an incentive program to get more international, and especially European, flights.

"Local airport chief John Wheat said Sacramento has talked recently with several cross-Atlantic carriers, including Norwegian Air Shuttle, which already flies out of Oakland, as well as Condor Airlines of Germany, and Wow Air, a low-cost Icelandic airline that flies out of San Francisco, Portland, Austin and Anchorage." ( (from http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/transportation/article193846964.html).

It looks like they've been talking with a few options. I'm skeptical but who knows. I wonder how someone like Norwegian would market SMF compared to OAK. Gateway to Tahoe and Yosemite? To Sonoma and Amador wine country? Farm-to-fork food and agriculture?

williaminsd wrote:
Perhaps even more impressive are the cargo counts. Total tonnage through the airport is up an astounding 55% over last year and the FedEx MD-11 doesn't seem so lonely on the ramp anymore.


Amazon opened a fulfillment center to the east of the airport and had plans to open an air cargo facility at the airport. I'm not sure if that's up and running yet but given those numbers it may be.

As for the proverbial DTW link, NK could be an option going forward if DL doesn't want to restart the route. Costs have been high and a deterrent for LCCs but they've gone down.

"The lease rates imposed by the airport on airlines peaked several years ago at more than $18 per passenger. The rates are set at about $15.45, a recent analysis shows. The new arrangement should drop airline fees to under $14 per passenger, Wheat said." (from http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article119307238.html).
 
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DLSANMan
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:17 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I’d like to see a few unlikely routes - SMF-PSP and SMF-SBA. Tough with WN on BUR and ONT.


There used to be SMF PSP and SMF SBA on QX Dash then the route Transferred to XJet (Express Jet) on E135. It didn’t last long befor EV went belly up. I used to fly both routes all the time.
 
FSDan
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:25 pm

williaminsd wrote:
I haven't seen any new service announcements since Air Canada announced Vancouver, which I believe starts this May. So perhaps the counts may plateau for awhile, but at this rate, SMF could be closing in on 12m pax in 2018.


I'm not sure if they were announced before or after AC, but WN is starting several new routes out of SMF including AUS, STL, and MCO.
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:26 pm

DLSANMan wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I’d like to see a few unlikely routes - SMF-PSP and SMF-SBA. Tough with WN on BUR and ONT.


There used to be SMF PSP and SMF SBA on QX Dash then the route Transferred to XJet (Express Jet) on E135. It didn’t last long befor EV went belly up. I used to fly both routes all the time.


Cool. Wasn’t aware of that. ExpressJet really had some great options for their branded period.
-Dave
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:38 pm

SMF seems to be a growing area is that true? Is it people leaving SF, silicon valley, and LA because they are too expensive or is industry thriving there and driving traffic.

High speed train is a long time away for Sacramento area maybe a few satellite gates are needed?

Southwest will be the airline for growth the legacies will stick to hub routes at SMF they all have hubs nearby they want to feed.
 
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SANFan
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:04 pm

Have the costs to the airlines come down at SMF? I know the high costs of doing business at the airport was keeping airlines and new service at bay for the last several years.

No matter the reason, it's great to see business at SMF increasing!

(BTW, William', if you look at AS's current online skeds for mid-November, you'll see 4x daily service between SMF and SAN by AS! I'm hoping and expecting this will become permanent sooner rather than later and not just an increase for the holidays.)

bb
 
jplatts
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:51 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
WN has been on a tear there recently. It’s one of their only west coast cities they have expansion room and can fend off AS. They’ve now made it an international gateway and I wouldn’t be surprised if it became a Hawaii launch spot as well.

A couple years ago I thought they should just consolidate both terminals there buy now I don’t think it’s possible unless they expand the concourse.


amadorE175 wrote:
WN has a couple new daily flights starting in the next couple of weeks (AUS, MCO, STL) and I'll be interested in seeing how those do.


FSDan wrote:
I'm not sure if they were announced before or after AC, but WN is starting several new routes out of SMF including AUS, STL, and MCO.


slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Southwest will be the airline for growth the legacies will stick to hub routes at SMF they all have hubs nearby they want to feed.


HOU, MCI, BNA, and SAT are top destinations traveled to from SMF that are not currently served nonstop from SMF. WN did serve MCI nonstop from SMF in the past, and WN could bring back SMF-MCI nonstop service. WN has also been recently expanding at HOU, and WN could also add SMF-HOU nonstop service as Southwest is still expanding at HOU and since SMF is one of the top destinations traveled to from HOU that isn't currently served nonstop from HOU. WN could also add SMF-BNA and HOU-SAT nonstop service.
 
klm617
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


That was 8 years ago a lot has changed since then.
In the lower 48, per DOT, it's DTW's 2nd unserved, 4th if you include ANC and HNL. DTW is in the top 5 for SMF too, so perhaps this can be a target for SMF in the 2 year time frame.


You can rationalize that but there are many competing hubs between DTW and SMF. There's also ample LCC competition into OAK and SFO. Delta isn't going to get high yields into SMF when Spirit has $114 fares DTW-OAK.



With that logic Delta should only have SLC-SMF flights but that's not the case there are 3 daily to ATL which according to your thought process should not even exist.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:42 pm

klm617 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
In the lower 48, per DOT, it's DTW's 2nd unserved, 4th if you include ANC and HNL. DTW is in the top 5 for SMF too, so perhaps this can be a target for SMF in the 2 year time frame.


You can rationalize that but there are many competing hubs between DTW and SMF. There's also ample LCC competition into OAK and SFO. Delta isn't going to get high yields into SMF when Spirit has $114 fares DTW-OAK.



With that logic Delta should only have SLC-SMF flights but that's not the case there are 3 daily to ATL which according to your thought process should not even exist.


Because for DL, ATL is the center of the known universe. SLC, MSP, DTW - they’re second fiddle, and for obvious reasons. They will always compete with one another AND Atlanta for flights.
-Dave
 
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dolphinflyer
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:04 am

klm617 wrote:
Would be nice to see DTW-SMF on Delta the O/D traffic certainly suggests it's viable.


DTW is a priority market for reinstatement, most likely as a seasonal redeye (EB) on Delta during summer months.

SMF-PHL is actually the largest unserved O&D market for SMF at present. AA is best poised to reinstate that service at some point.

SMF-SBA and SMF-PSP are high priority intra-California markets, but difficult to find the right carrier to fly those thin markets.
 
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jbpdx
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:15 am

dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF-PHL is actually the largest unserved O&D market for SMF at present. AA is best poised to reinstate that service at some point.



They only fly PDX-PHL for about 2 months in the summer. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
 
flyfresno
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:48 am

Delta doesn't even serve SMF-MSP every day in the winter months, what makes you guys think they will put an a/c on SMF-DTW? Maybe, maybe, maybe a summer seasonal that's something like 5X per week from late June to early August, but even that seems extremely unlikely. If anyone is gonna serve DTW from SMF, it's gonna be Spirit, or, as more of a long shot, Southwest.
 
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flymco753
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:45 am

flyfresno wrote:
Delta doesn't even serve SMF-MSP every day in the winter months, what makes you guys think they will put an a/c on SMF-DTW? Maybe, maybe, maybe a summer seasonal that's something like 5X per week from late June to early August, but even that seems extremely unlikely. If anyone is gonna serve DTW from SMF, it's gonna be Spirit, or, as more of a long shot, Southwest.
Quarterly PDEW shows Q3 is the strongest while Q4 and 1 are the low periods, so truthfully, this flight can go 6x weekly with no flight on Saturday, on the A320 or 738. SNA was originally supposed to be 5x weekly on the 73W, but they’ve increased it to daily on the 757 due to its performance, so never say never. It’s possible this flight can go from early June to late September.
Resort, and other ground transportation options are on level 1.

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ahj2000
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:07 am

How are American’s CLT/PHL doing? I believe At leas to CLT is now 2x in the summer, but what are frequencies like in the off peak season?
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vfw614
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:14 am

Looked for some information on SMF because of this interesting thread and came across this on wikipedia:

"Between 1990 and 2007, Sacramento International Airport had a high incidence of bird strikes due to its location in an avian migratory route."

So what have they done that this stopped in 2008? (if wikipedia is to be believed).
 
flyfresno
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:40 pm

flymco753 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
Delta doesn't even serve SMF-MSP every day in the winter months, what makes you guys think they will put an a/c on SMF-DTW? Maybe, maybe, maybe a summer seasonal that's something like 5X per week from late June to early August, but even that seems extremely unlikely. If anyone is gonna serve DTW from SMF, it's gonna be Spirit, or, as more of a long shot, Southwest.
Quarterly PDEW shows Q3 is the strongest while Q4 and 1 are the low periods, so truthfully, this flight can go 6x weekly with no flight on Saturday, on the A320 or 738. SNA was originally supposed to be 5x weekly on the 73W, but they’ve increased it to daily on the 757 due to its performance, so never say never. It’s possible this flight can go from early June to late September.

1) You are assuming that all, or even most, of those PDEW will take that flight. Problem is, the timing won’t work for everyone, and not everyone wants to fly Delta (Sacramento has a very high percentage of loyal Southwest flyers, even for a CA city).
2) Add in the fact that Delta isn’t usually the cheapest option, the connections in DTW don’t offer much of an advantage over ATL/MSP for Domestic/Europe, and are mostly worse than SEA/LAX to Asia, especially considering the huge backtrack (but hello, Escanaba and Sault Ste. Marie!)
3) Finally, add the opportunity cost of operating a 737/A320 on such a long route (it’s almost the same stage length as ATL-SMF, but with far fewer connections, and Delta can operate a route like DTW-CMH or DTW-ORD twice in the same period), and you arrive at the unlikelihood of the route coming to fruition.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:27 pm

I got 80 ish PDEW for Q3 -2017 on DTW-SMF.. with the DL hub one would think it could work.

Also SMF-BOS will be daily for most of the summer on B6. I found it interesting that UA was still a slight market share leader on SMF-BOS for Q3 2017 and loads are in the 80's on B6 flights. Are people in the SMF area connecting to B6 flights and/or partners in BOS? Connections seem to work better going back to SMF - Transatlantic wise due to the early morning arrival in BOS giving few options.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CO, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WN

2018 Flights: B6 BOS-BGI-BOS, WN BOS-MDW-BOS, B6 BOS-PDX-BOS
 
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bluefltspecial
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:58 pm

I'm still in disbelief or maybe more so disappointed, that they haven't even connected the light rail line to the airport.
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amadorE175
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:59 pm

SANFan wrote:
Have the costs to the airlines come down at SMF? I know the high costs of doing business at the airport was keeping airlines and new service at bay for the last several years.

No matter the reason, it's great to see business at SMF increasing!

bb


Mentioned up thread but the lease costs have come down a bit, from $18 to around $14.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
SMF seems to be a growing area is that true? Is it people leaving SF, silicon valley, and LA because they are too expensive or is industry thriving there and driving traffic.


The region is growing from both people moving from more expensive parts of the state and from general economic improvements.

ahj2000 wrote:
How are American’s CLT/PHL doing? I believe At leas to CLT is now 2x in the summer, but what are frequencies like in the off peak season?


Right now, it's down to a daily redeye.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:47 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Looked for some information on SMF because of this interesting thread and came across this on wikipedia:
"Between 1990 and 2007, Sacramento International Airport had a high incidence of bird strikes due to its location in an avian migratory route."
So what have they done that this stopped in 2008? (if wikipedia is to be believed).


Bird strikes at SMF are still occurring. Here are a few recent ones:

February 2018
http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2018/02/04/bird-strike-causes-emergency-landing-at-sacramento-international-airport/

December 2017
http://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/delta-flight-heads-back-to-sacramento-after-hitting-a-bird/496665546

October 2017
http://www.kcra.com/article/sacramento-flight-returns-after-possible-bird-strike/13066568
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ctrabs0114
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 7:06 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
WN has been on a tear there recently. It’s one of their only west coast cities they have expansion room and can fend off AS. They’ve now made it an international gateway and I wouldn’t be surprised if it became a Hawaii launch spot as well.

A couple years ago I thought they should just consolidate both terminals there buy now I don’t think it’s possible unless they expand the concourse.


SMF seems like a viable WN station to serve Hawaii in a few years, but I believe WN will be launching Hawaii services from LAX and OAK - where they have crew bases (or, in the case of LAX, will have a crew base) based on recent reports (including quotes from Gary Kelly to the Las Vegas Journal-Review, where he said Hawaii service would launch from two California cities).
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WN732
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Mar 24, 2018 7:22 pm

bluefltspecial wrote:
I'm still in disbelief or maybe more so disappointed, that they haven't even connected the light rail line to the airport.


Must be a California thing.

SJC, SAN, LAX, and SMF don't currently have light rail directly to the airport.

SMF is particularly bad because the bus that takes you from downtown to the airport doesn't even pick up at the Amtrak station. It would be a good investment to improve that service. I could see folks from the Central Valley and the North bay taking Amtrak and connecting.

If you were to take Amtrak, it would make more sense at this point in time to uber to the airport than take the bus which stops several blocks away.

It doesn't make sense that all of these light rail lines were produced far after the airport was built, and were never connected to the airport.

SFO and OAK are proof that it will work.

The LAX line cannot come soon enough.
 
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dolphinflyer
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:26 am

nikeson13 wrote:
Terminal B is actually pretty full, but there is still some room. B6 has moved over from A recently, and you also have AM, AS, HA, WN, Y4, and soon to be AC. The western WN gates (B12-23) have high utilization as well as some of the eastern gates (B4-11) IIRC. A is actually pretty busy at peak times, pushing the security lines beyond capacity at some times of the day (morning flights can get the line into the parking garage, almost been caught in it twice) and B is also being pushed a bit, but is more consistently full throughout the day and can still handle the capacity pretty well. A needs more security now(which they are working on), and B will needs some more gates in less than a decade if the growth rate stays near 10% or more. Check out the Master Plan from the start of 2017 https://sacramento.aero/scas/about/planning_design Keep in mind they have blown through forecasted growth targets so expect timescales to be moved up.

PS. I flew through it 2 weeks ago and A10-A17 have been fully remodeled and is very nice. And the increase in cargo is coming primarily from ATI flights for Prime Air that moved over from the non-ILS equipped SCK.


AC will operate from Terminal A, in cooperation with Star Alliance partner UA. YVR-SMF flights will be precleared at YVR, so no need for CBP processing at SMF upon arrival.

The TSA security space in Terminal A is being expanded for greater passenger throughput. New carpet, new seating and new jetbridges are being installed in Terminal A one gate at a time over the next 12-15 months at the rate of one gate upgrade per month.
 
williaminsd
Topic Author
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:52 pm

Thanks everyone for the welcome, and for the insightful replies. Were I a betting man (and I am), I'd put a couple of bucks on HOU as the next announced new destination, and I think there's still time for this summer. If HOU were to go with 2x/day, that gets SMF to around 85/day flights spread over 11 dedicated gates. Plenty of room to grow.

I'd expect SMF to part of the second "wave" of HI gateways, with SAN but after LAX and OAK, but being part of the initial service is not out of the question. When that occurs, I'd look for more flights for connections to places like Spokane, Boise and SLC. By summer of 2019, 95 flights/day is a distinct possibility.

For personal reasons, I hope Alaska increases the freq to San Diego from present 3x/day. And thanks SanFan, I did see the increase to 4x in November through end of year. Hope it gets going sooner than that. My flight this Wednesday is nearly full and main cabin seats are going for $257 one-way (tomorrow main cabin seats are $354!). They have to be killing it on this route now. Plenty of room to grow at Alaska's three dedicated gates in Terminal B. Where though, is a tough call. They have to put those Q400s somewhere, so maybe SBA and try PSP again in winter. Wouldn't be surprised if Alaska also employed a HI strategy and used some presently unserved cities to feed HI at SMF. I'm thinking places with some kind of O&D, but not enough to carry load alone. TUS, MCI, OMA, ABQ come to mind. Those are long-shots at best and if anything, far more likely to go through SJC or SAN, but I'm just thinking out-loud here at possibilities. I've been surprised before (hello MSY!).

The legacies over at Terminal A have plenty of room (about 35-40% of total traffic goes through Terminal A). Detroit got mentioned a lot here. I can understand skepticism for this failed route, but that was quite a few years ago and while DTW might be out of the question if your airport isn't breaking 5m pax/year, I have to think an airport closing in on 12m/year has a shot.

I also think a morning flight to JFK on DL could happen by summer of 2019, but I think that's more of a reflection of DL's strategy at JFK rather than pure growth at SMF.

All of this is merely speculation of course and I don't claim any special insight or information. SMF isn't even my home airport, so I'm far from being in any "loop." But that's what makes forums like this fun. Some people here DO have those and ARE in loops. I appreciate their comments.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:11 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Wouldn't be surprised if Alaska also employed a HI strategy and used some presently unserved cities to feed HI at SMF. I'm thinking places with some kind of O&D, but not enough to carry load alone. TUS, MCI, OMA, ABQ come to mind. Those are long-shots at best and if anything, far more likely to go through SJC or SAN, but I'm just thinking out-loud here at possibilities. I've been surprised before (hello MSY!).


SMF also seems like a prime candidate (along with OAK) for AS to bail on when WN cannonballs into the Hawaii service pool next year. I would expect they'd stay and fight it out at SJC and SAN where they're stronger and have some feed but at OAK and SMF it'll be a crowded market with 3 operators to Hawaii and AS looks like the odd man out.
 
Yflyer
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:38 pm

WN732 wrote:
bluefltspecial wrote:
SMF is particularly bad because the bus that takes you from downtown to the airport doesn't even pick up at the Amtrak station. It would be a good investment to improve that service. I could see folks from the Central Valley and the North bay taking Amtrak and connecting.


Not to mention the couple of times I've taken the bus from the airport to downtown it's never been anywhere close to on time. It only runs once an hour to begin with, and the last time I used it (which was years ago now) it was something in the neighborhood of 30 minutes late. At least the bus in the other direction, going to the airport, was on time.

And the planned light rail line to the airport will connect to the Amtrak station, whenever it actually gets built.
 
ScottB
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:54 pm

WN732 wrote:
SMF is particularly bad because the bus that takes you from downtown to the airport doesn't even pick up at the Amtrak station. It would be a good investment to improve that service. I could see folks from the Central Valley and the North bay taking Amtrak and connecting.


I really don't see much demand from the North Bay to SMF, even if there were a bus connection between the Sacramento Amtrak station and SMF. It just makes more sense to take BART to OAK or SFO. If you want to get people from Davis/Fairfield/Vacaville I think a direct bus connection to the airport would be far more convenient, rather than a train-to-bus connection. With only two daily trains in each direction stopping at Sacramento, I don't expect the Central Valley San Joaquins service is much of a factor.

adamh8297 wrote:
I found it interesting that UA was still a slight market share leader on SMF-BOS for Q3 2017 and loads are in the 80's on B6 flights.


UA likely leads in market share simply because they are relatively well-positioned to offer convenient connections via DEN/ORD/IAH/EWR. A non-stop flight is a huge plus, but the timing may not work for many passengers -- and the non-daily/seasonal nature of B6's non-stop can make it difficult to retain loyalty. UA also has some historical frequent flyer loyalty in California even though they're quite a bit smaller than they were 20 years ago in the state.
 
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flymco753
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:32 pm

I still think SMF-DTW is a possibility for 2020, because like one posted above, the direct traffic is pure growth. Per DoT, PDEW is averaged at roughly 148, which equates to 74 pax per day. Lets use SNA, a market that was roughly 96 pax per day with a growth rate of 40%, it was added as 5x weekly on the 73W and was quickly upgraded to 6x weekly. Fast forward to now, where the flight is a 757 and will become daily. This is pure proof that both SMF and SJC are more than capable of happening.
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AirFiero
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:53 pm

just makes more sense to take BART to OAK or SFO

Except that BART doesn't go anywhere near the North Bay, unless you are counting Richmond.

Depending on where you are talking about in the north bay, Sacramento could be much closer.
 
WN732
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:11 pm

AirFiero wrote:
just makes more sense to take BART to OAK or SFO

Except that BART doesn't go anywhere near the North Bay, unless you are counting Richmond.

Depending on where you are talking about in the north bay, Sacramento could be much closer.


Right now its most northern terminus is Pittsburg/ Bay Point. But, that's still quite a haul on BART, especially if you're flying out of SFO.
 
AirFiero
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:13 pm

WN732 wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
just makes more sense to take BART to OAK or SFO

Except that BART doesn't go anywhere near the North Bay, unless you are counting Richmond.

Depending on where you are talking about in the north bay, Sacramento could be much closer.


Right now its most northern terminus is Pittsburg/ Bay Point. But, that's still quite a haul on BART, especially if you're flying out of SFO.


Thats more east. Again, it depends on where you are talking about in the north bay.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:08 pm

AirFiero wrote:
WN732 wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
just makes more sense to take BART to OAK or SFO

Except that BART doesn't go anywhere near the North Bay, unless you are counting Richmond.

Depending on where you are talking about in the north bay, Sacramento could be much closer.


Right now its most northern terminus is Pittsburg/ Bay Point. But, that's still quite a haul on BART, especially if you're flying out of SFO.


Thats more east. Again, it depends on where you are talking about in the north bay.


I know the north bay has the Marin Airporter than runs hourly from the North Bay to SFO but that take 60-90+ mins depending on traffic. Is there any regular bus or public transportation service from the North Bay to OAK or SMF?

I am glad to see SMF doing well and with the increasing population up there I am sure it will keep doing better and better for years to come.
 
klm617
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:48 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
I got 80 ish PDEW for Q3 -2017 on DTW-SMF.. with the DL hub one would think it could work.

Also SMF-BOS will be daily for most of the summer on B6. I found it interesting that UA was still a slight market share leader on SMF-BOS for Q3 2017 and loads are in the 80's on B6 flights. Are people in the SMF area connecting to B6 flights and/or partners in BOS? Connections seem to work better going back to SMF - Transatlantic wise due to the early morning arrival in BOS giving few options.



Easily Detroit should work. What is the PDEW for MSP-SMF and ATL-SMF
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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adamh8297
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:50 pm

klm617 wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
I got 80 ish PDEW for Q3 -2017 on DTW-SMF.. with the DL hub one would think it could work.

Also SMF-BOS will be daily for most of the summer on B6. I found it interesting that UA was still a slight market share leader on SMF-BOS for Q3 2017 and loads are in the 80's on B6 flights. Are people in the SMF area connecting to B6 flights and/or partners in BOS? Connections seem to work better going back to SMF - Transatlantic wise due to the early morning arrival in BOS giving few options.



Easily Detroit should work. What is the PDEW for MSP-SMF and ATL-SMF


ATL - 177
MSP - 156

DL has over 65% of each market.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CO, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WN

2018 Flights: B6 BOS-BGI-BOS, WN BOS-MDW-BOS, B6 BOS-PDX-BOS
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:57 pm

Welcome to a.net!

I notice you love your home airport, but have an affinity for the one you fly into the most. I share your passion for that! My homes are IAH/HOU and DEN. while my affinities are for SNA (tons of family in OC, probably my most flown airport besides IAH), DFW/DAL (attended college in the DFW area, and interned with WN last Fall), MEM (first home airport), and SMF (where I would fly into to see my grandmother when I was very young and where I remember seeing for the first time both a Southwest plane and a 737). I work for WN now so I guess I can give credit to SMF for my career!
You know all is right is the world when the only thing people worry about is if the president had sex with a pornstar.


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
ScottB
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:56 am

AirFiero wrote:
just makes more sense to take BART to OAK or SFO

Except that BART doesn't go anywhere near the North Bay, unless you are counting Richmond.

Depending on where you are talking about in the north bay, Sacramento could be much closer.


Oh, that's certainly true if one is driving. But the point I was making was in response to the suggestion that Amtrak would be convenient for folks in the North Bay if only the connection to the airport in Sacramento involved direct service from the train station to the airport. The Capitol Corridor service stops in Richmond (BART service), Martinez, Fairfield-Suisun, and Vacaville-Fairfield (and I suggested direct bus service from Fairfield to SMF). But I fail to see how a train service that by schedule is really aimed at commuters would bring many passengers from the North Bay when that train service just doesn't serve much of the North Bay, either.
 
AirFiero
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:56 am

ScottB wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
just makes more sense to take BART to OAK or SFO

Except that BART doesn't go anywhere near the North Bay, unless you are counting Richmond.

Depending on where you are talking about in the north bay, Sacramento could be much closer.


Oh, that's certainly true if one is driving. But the point I was making was in response to the suggestion that Amtrak would be convenient for folks in the North Bay if only the connection to the airport in Sacramento involved direct service from the train station to the airport. The Capitol Corridor service stops in Richmond (BART service), Martinez, Fairfield-Suisun, and Vacaville-Fairfield (and I suggested direct bus service from Fairfield to SMF). But I fail to see how a train service that by schedule is really aimed at commuters would bring many passengers from the North Bay when that train service just doesn't serve much of the North Bay, either.


Definitely. Transit in the this state isn't very impressive.
 
williaminsd
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Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:27 pm

March figures out and the hits keep coming. Overall pax traffic in March up 11.3% making the 7th straight month of double digit growth. Q1 growth up 12.2%. International carriers holding own with 12.2 growth this year to date. Alaska/Skywest (Much of this SAN-SMF) up an astounding 76%. Freight up YoY over 50% in March as well. Q1 frieght up 53.3%. The March 2018 total pax count (862,130) is higher than any monthly count in 2016. In last month, United resumed EWR and Southwest started daily AUS and STL as well as weekly MSY and SJD. YVR and MCO start next month as does the resumption of BOS. Alaska resumes service to SJD in May as well. Airport officials are now projecting 11.5mm pax for 2018. At this rate SMF will well exceed that by November. Still no new announcements though....

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