jumbojet wrote:

JetBlue has the most to lose when the US economy tanks. Their profit margin is heavily, if not all, geared towards MINT. The dedicated MINTers will be the first to pull back in spend come the next downturn. Then what does B6 do, what is their plan for that?

1) that's baseless, they have about 90 daily ,mint flights, out of over 1000 total, and yes its a margin accretive but certainly not "heavily, if not all geared towards Mint":. Your precious Delta would not be immune to any such market tanking, especially with 100% of their fleet has premium seating.
2) they are way leaner and more nimble than any of the majors, 2 fleet types only, vs Delta 15+ types of airctaft, essentially all airbus in a few years for B6, which will drive much lower costs and no widebody's (yet) to eat at expenses, and they are not prone to Midwest grain/labor belt that historically get hit far beyond more than the east coast/west coast major cities during a recession. so..DTW/MSP/ATL...yeah that's gonna hit them pretty darn good.

jumbojet wrote:

JetBlue has the most to lose when the US economy tanks. Their profit margin is heavily, if not all, geared towards MINT. The dedicated MINTers will be the first to pull back in spend come the next downturn. Then what does B6 do, what is their plan for that?

A couple of things:
Their A321 core fleet actually generate higher margin than mint these days. Think about those JFK VFR routes on A321 Core configs. Those print money.

Secondly, when the economy tanks, corporate budget gets cut back for premium cabin. legacies will get hurt the most. B6 doesn't really capture the highest tiered corporate contract anyhow. They get a lot of high yielding leisure travelers in mint cabin. And they can make it work since it's so much lower cost than legacy premium configs. All these new D1 routes that DL launched against B6 competition are not making money. I've posted the numbers last page. Do you think they can survive when the corporate clients go away?

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

Right - the two routes pulled from FLL by WN are routes where UA had dumped extra capacity. WN and B6 chased AA off FLL-DCA and I figured UA would abandon FLL-IAD with WN flying it but the opposite happened. UA went from a single daily to double-daily and a third flight seasonally and WN is done. Similarly as part of the EWR hub restructuring UA added more capacity on EWR-FLL and WN is now pulling from that route. B6 still flies that by the way.

I will be posting the FLL numbers soon =) You will see why WN pulled out of these markets. The greatest thing that happened for B6 is that AS expansion out west took away their attention from expanding at FLL.

tphuang wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

JetBlue has the most to lose when the US economy tanks. Their profit margin is heavily, if not all, geared towards MINT. The dedicated MINTers will be the first to pull back in spend come the next downturn. Then what does B6 do, what is their plan for that?

A couple of things:
Their A321 core fleet actually generate higher margin than mint these days. Think about those JFK VFR routes on A321 Core configs. Those print money.

Secondly, when the economy tanks, corporate budget gets cut back for premium cabin. legacies will get hurt the most. B6 doesn't really capture the highest tiered corporate contract anyhow. They get a lot of high yielding leisure travelers in mint cabin. And they can make it work since it's so much lower cost than legacy premium configs. All these new D1 routes that DL launched against B6 competition are not making money. I've posted the numbers last page. Do you think they can survive when the corporate clients go away?

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

Right - the two routes pulled from FLL by WN are routes where UA had dumped extra capacity. WN and B6 chased AA off FLL-DCA and I figured UA would abandon FLL-IAD with WN flying it but the opposite happened. UA went from a single daily to double-daily and a third flight seasonally and WN is done. Similarly as part of the EWR hub restructuring UA added more capacity on EWR-FLL and WN is now pulling from that route. B6 still flies that by the way.

I will be posting the FLL numbers soon =) You will see why WN pulled out of these markets. The greatest thing that happened for B6 is that AS expansion out west took away their attention from expanding at FLL.

I’ll be interested to see your FLL analysis. The revenue guys always tell us it’s the one city where we command a fare premium over SWA. It’s interesting that we hold our own in FLL and keep growing but other places where there is a combo of ulcc and SWA (bwi) we can’t make it work. It will be interesting to see what basic economy does are we looking at another mint type driver of revenue? Interesting times but if it works I could see a rapid turn around in finances for jetblue.

I will start off with the NYC and DC area to FLL market. These are obviously going to be the strongest for B6.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF AvgAsm PRASM Vs B6
FLLJFK 1069 B6 208644 162.90 162.21 326.49 99.58% 188.70 87.67% 142.20 0.1330 100.00%
FLLJFK 1069 DL 97702 165.48 164.99 316.13 99.67% 173.60 77.29% 127.52 0.1193 89.67%
FLLLGA 1076 B6 108124 166.52 166.29 272.73 99.79% 148.00 85.74% 142.59 0.1325 100.00%
FLLLGA 1076 DL 113001 176.98 175.75 488.31 99.61% 163.20 78.79% 138.47 0.1287 97.11%
FLLLGA 1076 NK 133375 65.79 65.71 96.55 99.76% 223.00 83.17% 54.66 0.0508 38.33%
FLLLGA 1076 WN 6076 151.61 132.45 202.08 72.48% 148.50 78.66% 104.19 0.0968 73.07%
FLLEWR 1065 B6 106546 159.66 159.33 371.48 99.84% 147.30 89.31% 142.29 0.1336 100.00%
FLLEWR 1065 NK 100384 60.57 60.31 109.20 99.48% 228.00 81.08% 48.90 0.0459 34.37%
FLLEWR 1065 UA 202162 161.41 160.71 393.09 99.70% 165.80 90.37% 145.23 0.1364 102.07%
FLLEWR 1065 WN 44378 119.21 117.86 163.52 97.04% 163.30 86.26% 101.67 0.0955 71.45%
FLLHPN 1097 B6 36457 194.09 194.09 0.00 100.00% 125.60 83.62% 162.29 0.1479
JFK is obviously their strongest. With all the 200 seaters they put on this route, it's quite impressive they have such a yield advantage over DL and managed to get same yield as LGA/EWR, which are operated by mostly A320s. All the yields are about flat YoY.
FLL-LGA is probably the only market out of LGA where B6 has an advantage over DL, who has a ton of connection there. I'm a little disappointed to see B6 cutting back on FLL-EWR considering that they are doing about as well there as at LGA. And with WN gone completely, it seems like the wrong time to shrink to 3 flights over summer time. WN is just not competitive at all in the NYC-FLL market, which probably shouldn't be a surprise.
HPN is doing well, but they do significantly better on HPN-PBI, which is why that will now have 5 daily flights. I'm sure they'd add more flights here if they had more slots.

FLLDCA 899 B6 79703 173.79 173.41 280.72 99.65% 100.60 89.65% 155.47 0.1729 100.00%
FLLDCA 899 WN 47356 136.83 133.94 177.93 93.44% 150.70 87.27% 116.89 0.1300 75.19%
FLLIAD 901 UA 50809 168.39 167.56 230.66 98.68% 158.00 87.37% 146.39 0.1625 N/A
FLLIAD 901 WN 20522 128.04 125.58 144.80 87.20% 146.50 76.96% 96.65 0.1073 N/A
Alright, the DC market. Keep in mind here that B6 operates the high cost E90 jets most of the time and UA's numbers are inflated by connections. B6 numbers are up close to 15% YoY. No doubt helped by AA's departure. Even considering that WN is mostly O&D at IAD, these are terrible numbers. Not surprising they bowed out. B6 should up gauge here.

Now for the secondary northeast airports. These ones WN generally have larger market share than B6.
FLLALB 1204 B6 21765 158.45 158.45 0.00 100.00% 150.00 79.73% 126.32 0.1049 100.00%
FLLALB 1204 WN 23649 163.66 161.00 193.03 91.67% 157.90 83.19% 133.93 0.1112 106.02%
ALB is a a pretty even market. WN had a greater advantage last year. B6 numbers are up YoY.

FLLBUF 1166 B6 24153 153.25 151.51 243.97 98.12% 150.00 89.46% 135.54 0.1162 100.00%
FLLBUF 1166 WN 28043 153.26 150.69 161.04 75.21% 154.70 88.02% 132.65 0.1138 97.87%
Another fairly even market. WN had a 10% advantage last year Q2, so this is good improvement for B6. B6 numbers are up YoY.

FLLBDL 1173 B6 45151 178.00 177.65 270.96 99.62% 149.20 83.61% 148.54 0.1266 100.00%
FLLBDL 1173 NK 28222 54.53 54.49 89.56 99.87% 174.60 80.02% 43.60 0.0372 29.35%
FLLBDL 1173 WN 24280 164.45 157.77 186.01 76.35% 149.60 81.56% 128.68 0.1097 86.63%
Strong market for B6 with better yields than ALB/BUF. B6 numbers are flat YoY. Again, they gained against WN here YoY.

FLLPVD 1188 B6 22531 188.38 188.40 163.00 99.95% 150.00 82.53% 155.49 0.1309 100.00%
FLLPVD 1188 WN 30166 179.15 175.26 198.59 83.32% 152.20 73.96% 129.62 0.1091 83.36%
PVD looks pretty good too and could probably handle additional capacity here. B6 number are flat YoY. Huge gain against WN YoY. Last Q2, WN had higher yield than B6 on this route.

FLLORH 1211 B6 14078 165.01 165.10 132.06 99.75% 100.00 81.38% 134.35 0.1109
I'm sure they are not canceling this route, but this is probably a money looser when considering they are flying E90 here and yields are not great.

Overall in NorthEast, they are doing quite well and gaining against WN YoY. I will be looking at other part of the country next. You will see the story changes.

JetBlue’s biggest threat imho is DL, and they aren’t alone. DL is positioned to siphon traffic away from other carriers in a boa-like fashion. It’s been a years-long process and it isn’t over, but until DL has a setback they will continue to work to strangle other carriers with their product and network strengths.

tphuang wrote:

I will start off with the NYC and DC area to FLL market. These are obviously going to be the strongest for B6.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF AvgAsm PRASM Vs B6
FLLJFK 1069 B6 208644 162.90 162.21 326.49 99.58% 188.70 87.67% 142.20 0.1330 100.00%
FLLJFK 1069 DL 97702 165.48 164.99 316.13 99.67% 173.60 77.29% 127.52 0.1193 89.67%
FLLLGA 1076 B6 108124 166.52 166.29 272.73 99.79% 148.00 85.74% 142.59 0.1325 100.00%
FLLLGA 1076 DL 113001 176.98 175.75 488.31 99.61% 163.20 78.79% 138.47 0.1287 97.11%
FLLLGA 1076 NK 133375 65.79 65.71 96.55 99.76% 223.00 83.17% 54.66 0.0508 38.33%
FLLLGA 1076 WN 6076 151.61 132.45 202.08 72.48% 148.50 78.66% 104.19 0.0968 73.07%
FLLEWR 1065 B6 106546 159.66 159.33 371.48 99.84% 147.30 89.31% 142.29 0.1336 100.00%
FLLEWR 1065 NK 100384 60.57 60.31 109.20 99.48% 228.00 81.08% 48.90 0.0459 34.37%
FLLEWR 1065 UA 202162 161.41 160.71 393.09 99.70% 165.80 90.37% 145.23 0.1364 102.07%
FLLEWR 1065 WN 44378 119.21 117.86 163.52 97.04% 163.30 86.26% 101.67 0.0955 71.45%
FLLHPN 1097 B6 36457 194.09 194.09 0.00 100.00% 125.60 83.62% 162.29 0.1479
JFK is obviously their strongest. With all the 200 seaters they put on this route, it's quite impressive they have such a yield advantage over DL and managed to get same yield as LGA/EWR, which are operated by mostly A320s. All the yields are about flat YoY.
FLL-LGA is probably the only market out of LGA where B6 has an advantage over DL, who has a ton of connection there. I'm a little disappointed to see B6 cutting back on FLL-EWR considering that they are doing about as well there as at LGA. And with WN gone completely, it seems like the wrong time to shrink to 3 flights over summer time. WN is just not competitive at all in the NYC-FLL market, which probably shouldn't be a surprise.
HPN is doing well, but they do significantly better on HPN-PBI, which is why that will now have 5 daily flights. I'm sure they'd add more flights here if they had more slots.

FLLDCA 899 B6 79703 173.79 173.41 280.72 99.65% 100.60 89.65% 155.47 0.1729 100.00%
FLLDCA 899 WN 47356 136.83 133.94 177.93 93.44% 150.70 87.27% 116.89 0.1300 75.19%
FLLIAD 901 UA 50809 168.39 167.56 230.66 98.68% 158.00 87.37% 146.39 0.1625 N/A
FLLIAD 901 WN 20522 128.04 125.58 144.80 87.20% 146.50 76.96% 96.65 0.1073 N/A
Alright, the DC market. Keep in mind here that B6 operates the high cost E90 jets most of the time and UA's numbers are inflated by connections. B6 numbers are up close to 15% YoY. No doubt helped by AA's departure. Even considering that WN is mostly O&D at IAD, these are terrible numbers. Not surprising they bowed out. B6 should up gauge here.

Now for the secondary northeast airports. These ones WN generally have larger market share than B6.
FLLALB 1204 B6 21765 158.45 158.45 0.00 100.00% 150.00 79.73% 126.32 0.1049 100.00%
FLLALB 1204 WN 23649 163.66 161.00 193.03 91.67% 157.90 83.19% 133.93 0.1112 106.02%
ALB is a a pretty even market. WN had a greater advantage last year. B6 numbers are up YoY.

FLLBUF 1166 B6 24153 153.25 151.51 243.97 98.12% 150.00 89.46% 135.54 0.1162 100.00%
FLLBUF 1166 WN 28043 153.26 150.69 161.04 75.21% 154.70 88.02% 132.65 0.1138 97.87%
Another fairly even market. WN had a 10% advantage last year Q2, so this is good improvement for B6. B6 numbers are up YoY.

FLLBDL 1173 B6 45151 178.00 177.65 270.96 99.62% 149.20 83.61% 148.54 0.1266 100.00%
FLLBDL 1173 NK 28222 54.53 54.49 89.56 99.87% 174.60 80.02% 43.60 0.0372 29.35%
FLLBDL 1173 WN 24280 164.45 157.77 186.01 76.35% 149.60 81.56% 128.68 0.1097 86.63%
Strong market for B6 with better yields than ALB/BUF. B6 numbers are flat YoY. Again, they gained against WN here YoY.

FLLPVD 1188 B6 22531 188.38 188.40 163.00 99.95% 150.00 82.53% 155.49 0.1309 100.00%
FLLPVD 1188 WN 30166 179.15 175.26 198.59 83.32% 152.20 73.96% 129.62 0.1091 83.36%
PVD looks pretty good too and could probably handle additional capacity here. B6 number are flat YoY. Huge gain against WN YoY. Last Q2, WN had higher yield than B6 on this route.

FLLORH 1211 B6 14078 165.01 165.10 132.06 99.75% 100.00 81.38% 134.35 0.1109
I'm sure they are not canceling this route, but this is probably a money looser when considering they are flying E90 here and yields are not great.

Overall in NorthEast, they are doing quite well and gaining against WN YoY. I will be looking at other part of the country next. You will see the story changes.

Which is why I think you see jetblue really digging in and building on strength. With all core 321s coming it should get better. Also looking at your numbers I think we can see how great the 220 will be for jetblue. That plane should really help some of these routes. They can upgague and use a plane that has lower costs.

Now I’m sure the west coast is a complete mess.

I’m sure the only reason orh is there is because of massport and what jetblue wants from them.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

JetBlue’s biggest threat imho is DL, and they aren’t alone. DL is positioned to siphon traffic away from other carriers in a boa-like fashion. It’s been a years-long process and it isn’t over, but until DL has a setback they will continue to work to strangle other carriers with their product and network strengths.

I think that is very true.

jfklganyc wrote:

Cabin refresh...2 planes. The cabins are so old that a new program had To be started to clean them.

Just trying to keep this thread based on fact... Currently 5 AC have been restyled with 2 more out right now and returning online within weeks. A second restyling line is opening up which will increase restyling to 4 A/C at a time. As a crewmember, we can track the progress of the program.

Cheers,
Drew

jfklganyc wrote:

You have a very good post in response to my post and you make a lot of good points.

What I feel you overlook is that most of that stuff was in the past.

Today’s JetBlue:

Worst on time airline Two years into an on-time program

Fuel cost rising... sharklet installation frozen

Cabin refresh...2 planes. The cabins are so old that a new program had To be started to clean them.

Trans atlantic has nothing in place to commence in the short or medium term.

Wi-Fi that used to have a premium option for charge just disappeared. No revenue opportunities there?

The 321LR? 330? 350? No one seems to know… They just talk about it.

The management in place now is stuck in a holding pattern and they don’t seem to know how to get out of the pattern.

Even the route cutting was supposed to be 6 to 8 cities. They couldn’t even do that right. Do you believe cutting Daytona beach and Saint Croix is going to have an appreciable impact on the bottom line?

The cities targeted to be cut were out West one daily. They use tons of gas on red eyes that don’t make money. But they couldn’t cut them; they got cold feet. Because they have nothing else out west.

I’ve been labeled as a JetBlue hater. Couldn’t be further from the truth. I love the airline I love JFK. I am telling you this management team is inept and impotent. they see things that need to be done and they don’t know how to do them.

Is the situation dire? No.

But this is how dire situations begin. They have to turn this around and they have to turn it around now

As far as the route cuts that was based on a rumor.
So we are not sure.

The restyle had to be stopped for lave issues unless you wanted them to keep going with a known issue.

While B6 is doing better, it still seems WN is doing quite well on FLL-DCA.

fastmover wrote:

Which is why I think you see jetblue really digging in and building on strength. With all core 321s coming it should get better. Also looking at your numbers I think we can see how great the 220 will be for jetblue. That plane should really help some of these routes. They can upgague and use a plane that has lower costs.

Now I’m sure the west coast is a complete mess.

I’m sure the only reason orh is there is because of massport and what jetblue wants from them.

220 will do a little great things. I would be shocked if they don't pick up some of those options. Vast majority of E90 routes would work better with 220's lower cost. Quite a few A320 routes will be better served by A220-300 in the future.

Alright more data. These will a lot worse for B6
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLAUS 1105 B6 23503 158.53 158.50 200.14 99.94% 145.00 89.54% 141.91 0.1284 100.00%
FLLAUS 1105 WN 47877 188.15 185.93 201.95 86.17% 152.40 92.96% 172.85 0.1564 121.80%
Healthy numbers for both carriers and both are up YoY. The gap between the two were smaller last year, so this is a route where WN made gains.

FLLBWI 0925 B6 28209 140.87 140.01 233.74 99.08% 149.60 78.58% 110.01 0.1189 100.00%
FLLBWI 0925 NK 85683 061.09 060.87 073.67 98.24% 192.80 85.15% 051.83 0.0560 47.11%
FLLBWI 0925 WN 226701 148.39 147.58 169.15 96.23% 157.50 85.08% 125.56 0.1357 114.13%
Seems like a huge bloodbath compared to AUS. It's never a good thing when NK yield is this high vs B6, since they have much lower cost and get a lot of ancillary revenue also. B6 performance here is flat YoY, but I guess this might be loosing too much money with higher fuel prices.

FLLCLE 1062 B6 24500 139.56 138.34 454.98 99.62% 150.00 90.74% 125.53 0.1182 100.00%
FLLCLE 1062 G4 7927 073.59 073.59 000.00 100.00% 180.00 84.69% 062.32 0.0587 49.65%
FLLCLE 1062 NK 24906 071.61 071.27 083.64 97.30% 154.70 89.96% 064.12 0.0604 51.07%
FLLCLE 1062 UA 7662 184.02 188.25 174.77 68.62% 162.90 83.99% 158.12 0.1489 125.96%
Yields up here a little YoY. A route that NK also does quite well in. When yield of NK is > 45% of B6, it's normally a bad thing, but they are generating that with a much smaller capacity aircraft. And there is minimal legacy competition here. I think they might be well served going double daily here.

FLLDTW 1127 B6 22574 134.53 133.47 245.52 99.05% 149.70 85.67% 114.34 0.1015 100.00%
FLLDTW 1127 DL 123961 178.68 177.37 237.19 97.81% 197.80 87.16% 154.60 0.1372 135.21%
FLLDTW 1127 NK 71842 064.57 062.18 106.01 94.54% 225.40 84.53% 052.56 0.0466 45.97%
Not great here, which is why they canceled it. Again, hard to compete with A320 against high density aircraft from both DL and NK. B6 yield here is actually flat YoY, but another case of higher fuel cost hurting business case.

FLLJAX 0319 B6 43369 115.33 115.29 160.80 99.91% 100.70 81.44% 093.90 0.2944 100.00%
FLLJAX 0319 WN 42373 092.10 091.88 284.15 99.89% 147.10 57.95% 053.25 0.1669 56.71%
This is quite interesting. New entrance from WN. I don't see how WN lasts on this route more than a year. 3 daily 737 is way too much capacity when B6 is already running 3 E90s here. Those are terrible numbers for WN. B6 yield down about 15 to 20% YoY with the new competition.

FLLLAS 2173 B6 23407 196.15 195.51 305.73 99.42% 150.00 86.21% 168.56 0.0776 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 NK 28773 094.08 093.34 132.55 98.10% 180.00 87.35% 081.53 0.0375 48.37%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 27858 212.68 211.03 221.86 84.72% 170.20 90.93% 191.89 0.0883 113.84%
Not great numbers here for B6 on a fairly long route. This might be a route well served by going to A321, since doubling capacity is too much. B6 yield here down 10% YoY. Gap with WN widened a little bit.

FLLBNA 0793 B6 22638 140.89 140.89 000.00 100.00% 150.00 84.79% 119.45 0.1506 100.00%
FLLBNA 0793 WN 81283 167.53 167.10 171.81 90.93% 153.40 90.44% 151.12 0.1906 126.51%
Another tough market for B6 given WN's strong presence at BNA. Their yields are actually not bad here compared to some of the other cities. Their yields are up 15% YoY and closed gap with WN a little bit.

FLLMSY 0674 B6 22042 118.11 118.11 000.00 100.00% 150.00 80.74% 095.37 0.1415 100.00%
FLLMSY 0674 NK 55002 062.08 062.25 057.06 96.81% 178.40 84.92% 052.86 0.0784 55.43%
FLLMSY 0674 WN 57017 158.32 157.04 171.34 91.08% 148.00 86.78% 136.29 0.2022 142.91%
Now this could be a real problem. Again, much stronger presence here by both NK/WN. B6 yield is flat YoY, but WN got a little stronger.

FLLPHL 0992 AA 100519 171.27 170.25 197.33 96.24% 170.50 92.53% 157.54 0.1588 130.17%
FLLPHL 0992 B6 43315 137.81 137.47 224.17 99.61% 150.00 88.04% 121.03 0.1220 100.00%
FLLPHL 0992 NK 29283 057.51 057.35 073.88 99.06% 158.60 90.08% 051.67 0.0521 42.69%
FLLPHL 0992 WN 25601 146.41 141.38 172.10 83.63% 153.50 91.14% 128.86 0.1299 106.47%
Obviously, AA is very strong here. B6 yield is down about 10% YoY, but their position vs WN and NK are more or less the same. This seems to be generally a higher yielding route than the cancelled ones. The LF is good enough that they could add more frequency or upgauge. Maybe NK or WN could be pushed off this route.

FLLPIT 0994 B6 22576 131.11 128.95 357.62 99.05% 150.30 83.00% 107.02 0.1077 100.00%
FLLPIT 0994 NK 21373 049.88 049.76 097.39 99.76% 150.40 82.63% 041.12 0.0414 38.42%
FLLPIT 0994 WN 34676 143.69 140.16 160.35 82.52% 153.30 89.04% 124.79 0.1255 116.60%
Huge bloodbath here. I don't think anyone was doing that great, which is why it was disappointing to see them giving up here. WN isn't exactly dominant at PIT. I think A220 would work much better here.

FLLRDU 0680 B6 30447 157.02 157.01 192.00 99.95% 101.10 84.34% 132.42 0.1947 100.00%
FLLRDU 0680 G7 3735 167.92 167.28 181.56 95.52% 071.00 90.66% 151.65 0.2230 114.52%
FLLRDU 0680 OO 8483 175.77 172.24 231.38 94.02% 076.00 90.01% 155.04 0.2280 117.08%
FLLRDU 0680 WN 27638 148.67 142.30 176.49 81.36% 146.60 91.53% 130.25 0.1915 98.36%
A bright spot for B6. Yields are very good for such a short route. Strong performance against both DL regional and WN. Good fare numbers with slightly lower LF. Their yields are down 5 to 10% YoY after they doubled capacity.

FLLRIC 0805 B6 28248 153.30 153.11 244.62 99.80% 101.00 79.02% 120.98 0.1503 100.00%
FLLRIC 0805 NK 20027 053.53 053.53 000.00 100.00% 147.20 74.76% 040.02 0.0497 33.08%
Another good market for B6. Yields are down 20% YoY due to NK entrance here + B6 doubling of capacity.

FLLORD 1182 AA 52450 163.68 163.34 166.02 87.45% 160.00 92.08% 150.41 0.1273 146.23%
FLLORD 1182 B6 24380 114.37 113.91 306.39 99.76% 150.00 90.30% 102.86 0.0870 100.00%
FLLORD 1182 NK 97115 058.06 057.50 092.19 98.40% 208.60 89.38% 051.39 0.0435 49.96%
FLLORD 1182 UA 86526 173.69 170.42 324.37 97.87% 162.10 90.49% 154.22 0.1305 149.94%
This is the toughest market of all. Yields dropped slightly YoY. I think this a market they need to stay in even with the losses. Let's see what B6 route planners think.

FLLSJU 1046 B6 119838 121.44 121.44 000.00 100.00% 147.00 84.36% 102.45 0.0979 100.00%
FLLSJU 1046 NK 44430 060.41 060.14 107.75 99.43% 209.40 89.51% 053.83 0.0515 52.55%
FLLSJU 1046 WN 74733 105.36 105.04 201.41 99.67% 153.00 88.02% 092.46 0.0884 90.25%
SJU yields are down drastically across the board YoY, so pretty big bloodbath here. They are definitely the strongest here, but are likely loosing money. A year ago, B6 average fare was $161 just to give a sense of where SJU numbers are suffering.

FLLBQN 0982 B6 20897 105.61 105.61 000.00 100.00% 150.00 81.47% 086.04 0.0876 100.00%
FLLBQN 0982 NK 26676 056.63 056.63 000.00 100.00% 183.90 81.47% 046.14 0.0470 53.62%
Same thing over at BQN. Low yields all the way around. Pretty sure both airlines are loosing money here. These are the kind of market BE would work well.

FLLATL 0581 B6 47776 115.37 115.37 000.00 100.00% 150.00 88.23% 101.79 0.1752 100.00%
FLLATL 0581 DL 420465 145.23 145.18 406.78 99.98% 182.50 89.79% 130.35 0.2244 128.06%
FLLATL 0581 NK 111910 053.34 053.24 087.87 99.71% 175.30 88.53% 047.13 0.0811 46.31%
FLLATL 0581 WN 129633 122.26 121.80 130.71 94.89% 159.50 89.42% 108.92 0.1875 107.01%
Not bad numbers considering the distance and the fact they are operating A320s here. B6 entrance here seem to have the worst effect on NK. they should consider adding another flight to improve their schedule a little bit.

Overall, their strength at FLL at the NorthEast, premium transcon and Latin America stuff. The middle of the country flights are always going to be tougher, especially into WN strongholds like BNA/MSY/BWI.

FLL-JAX was actually a WN route before B6 came in. WN axed the route in the past and I believe B6 started the day after WN ended it.

I'm a DTW flyer and B6 fan. I have been reading this thread and one basic question comes to mind that maybe some of you more familiar with B6 can answer...is B6 trying to be a point-to-point carrier or a connecting type carrier? I ask from the standpoint of DTW-FLL for example. When I booked flights from DTW to the Caribbean (several times), I always had to stay overnight either on the way to my destination or back to DTW. It didn't bother me, so I usually booked the flight anyway. Even when I take flights to the east coast connecting in BOS, I hardly have a flight connection less than 2 hours.

From a NY perspective, I can see B6 being able to be point-to-point because of population. However, outside NY, it seems as if their trying to be both? Or, maybe from the Midwest, the flights funnel in to BOS/JFK/FLL and you can connect when possible? I am not being critical, but this could be the problem. In terms of DTW-FLL, many people have commented about whether it was for O&D traffic or for connecting traffic. Well, I can tell you the connectivity from the flight was difficult at best. Maybe I am being too basic on this, so any insight would be appreciated.

AM ditching BOS should help B6 with its MEX service.

EBiafore99 wrote:

I'm a DTW flyer and B6 fan. I have been reading this thread and one basic question comes to mind that maybe some of you more familiar with B6 can answer...is B6 trying to be a point-to-point carrier or a connecting type carrier? I ask from the standpoint of DTW-FLL for example. When I booked flights from DTW to the Caribbean (several times), I always had to stay overnight either on the way to my destination or back to DTW. It didn't bother me, so I usually booked the flight anyway. Even when I take flights to the east coast connecting in BOS, I hardly have a flight connection less than 2 hours.

From a NY perspective, I can see B6 being able to be point-to-point because of population. However, outside NY, it seems as if their trying to be both? Or, maybe from the Midwest, the flights funnel in to BOS/JFK/FLL and you can connect when possible? I am not being critical, but this could be the problem. In terms of DTW-FLL, many people have commented about whether it was for O&D traffic or for connecting traffic. Well, I can tell you the connectivity from the flight was difficult at best. Maybe I am being too basic on this, so any insight would be appreciated.

I'm not sure B6 knows what it wants to be. Right now, it seems like that carrier that takes northeasterners where they want to go on vacation, but it aspires to be more. B6's hubs are lousy for a domestic operation, but work really well for connecting to the Caribbean or Europe.

Abeam79 wrote:

all airbus in a few years for B6

In name only. The planes were designed by two different companies. I doubt there is much commonality.

evank516 wrote:

FLL-JAX was actually a WN route before B6 came in. WN axed the route in the past and I believe B6 started the day after WN ended it.

Correct. Lots of anxiety down here when WN axed the route leaving people to AA's mercy out of MIA. B6 announced the route before WN departed and started it soon after. Not sure if it was the very next day but sounds right actually. Then oddly WN has four years later returned.

tphuang wrote:

fastmover wrote:

Which is why I think you see jetblue really digging in and building on strength. With all core 321s coming it should get better. Also looking at your numbers I think we can see how great the 220 will be for jetblue. That plane should really help some of these routes. They can upgague and use a plane that has lower costs.

Now I’m sure the west coast is a complete mess.

I’m sure the only reason orh is there is because of massport and what jetblue wants from them.

220 will do a little great things. I would be shocked if they don't pick up some of those options. Vast majority of E90 routes would work better with 220's lower cost. Quite a few A320 routes will be better served by A220-300 in the future.

Alright more data. These will a lot worse for B6
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLAUS 1105 B6 23503 158.53 158.50 200.14 99.94% 145.00 89.54% 141.91 0.1284 100.00%
FLLAUS 1105 WN 47877 188.15 185.93 201.95 86.17% 152.40 92.96% 172.85 0.1564 121.80%
Healthy numbers for both carriers and both are up YoY. The gap between the two were smaller last year, so this is a route where WN made gains.

FLLBWI 0925 B6 28209 140.87 140.01 233.74 99.08% 149.60 78.58% 110.01 0.1189 100.00%
FLLBWI 0925 NK 85683 061.09 060.87 073.67 98.24% 192.80 85.15% 051.83 0.0560 47.11%
FLLBWI 0925 WN 226701 148.39 147.58 169.15 96.23% 157.50 85.08% 125.56 0.1357 114.13%
Seems like a huge bloodbath compared to AUS. It's never a good thing when NK yield is this high vs B6, since they have much lower cost and get a lot of ancillary revenue also. B6 performance here is flat YoY, but I guess this might be loosing too much money with higher fuel prices.

FLLCLE 1062 B6 24500 139.56 138.34 454.98 99.62% 150.00 90.74% 125.53 0.1182 100.00%
FLLCLE 1062 G4 7927 073.59 073.59 000.00 100.00% 180.00 84.69% 062.32 0.0587 49.65%
FLLCLE 1062 NK 24906 071.61 071.27 083.64 97.30% 154.70 89.96% 064.12 0.0604 51.07%
FLLCLE 1062 UA 7662 184.02 188.25 174.77 68.62% 162.90 83.99% 158.12 0.1489 125.96%
Yields up here a little YoY. A route that NK also does quite well in. When yield of NK is > 45% of B6, it's normally a bad thing, but they are generating that with a much smaller capacity aircraft. And there is minimal legacy competition here. I think they might be well served going double daily here.

FLLDTW 1127 B6 22574 134.53 133.47 245.52 99.05% 149.70 85.67% 114.34 0.1015 100.00%
FLLDTW 1127 DL 123961 178.68 177.37 237.19 97.81% 197.80 87.16% 154.60 0.1372 135.21%
FLLDTW 1127 NK 71842 064.57 062.18 106.01 94.54% 225.40 84.53% 052.56 0.0466 45.97%
Not great here, which is why they canceled it. Again, hard to compete with A320 against high density aircraft from both DL and NK. B6 yield here is actually flat YoY, but another case of higher fuel cost hurting business case.

FLLJAX 0319 B6 43369 115.33 115.29 160.80 99.91% 100.70 81.44% 093.90 0.2944 100.00%
FLLJAX 0319 WN 42373 092.10 091.88 284.15 99.89% 147.10 57.95% 053.25 0.1669 56.71%
This is quite interesting. New entrance from WN. I don't see how WN lasts on this route more than a year. 3 daily 737 is way too much capacity when B6 is already running 3 E90s here. Those are terrible numbers for WN. B6 yield down about 15 to 20% YoY with the new competition.

FLLLAS 2173 B6 23407 196.15 195.51 305.73 99.42% 150.00 86.21% 168.56 0.0776 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 NK 28773 094.08 093.34 132.55 98.10% 180.00 87.35% 081.53 0.0375 48.37%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 27858 212.68 211.03 221.86 84.72% 170.20 90.93% 191.89 0.0883 113.84%
Not great numbers here for B6 on a fairly long route. This might be a route well served by going to A321, since doubling capacity is too much. B6 yield here down 10% YoY. Gap with WN widened a little bit.

FLLBNA 0793 B6 22638 140.89 140.89 000.00 100.00% 150.00 84.79% 119.45 0.1506 100.00%
FLLBNA 0793 WN 81283 167.53 167.10 171.81 90.93% 153.40 90.44% 151.12 0.1906 126.51%
Another tough market for B6 given WN's strong presence at BNA. Their yields are actually not bad here compared to some of the other cities. Their yields are up 15% YoY and closed gap with WN a little bit.

FLLMSY 0674 B6 22042 118.11 118.11 000.00 100.00% 150.00 80.74% 095.37 0.1415 100.00%
FLLMSY 0674 NK 55002 062.08 062.25 057.06 96.81% 178.40 84.92% 052.86 0.0784 55.43%
FLLMSY 0674 WN 57017 158.32 157.04 171.34 91.08% 148.00 86.78% 136.29 0.2022 142.91%
Now this could be a real problem. Again, much stronger presence here by both NK/WN. B6 yield is flat YoY, but WN got a little stronger.

FLLPHL 0992 AA 100519 171.27 170.25 197.33 96.24% 170.50 92.53% 157.54 0.1588 130.17%
FLLPHL 0992 B6 43315 137.81 137.47 224.17 99.61% 150.00 88.04% 121.03 0.1220 100.00%
FLLPHL 0992 NK 29283 057.51 057.35 073.88 99.06% 158.60 90.08% 051.67 0.0521 42.69%
FLLPHL 0992 WN 25601 146.41 141.38 172.10 83.63% 153.50 91.14% 128.86 0.1299 106.47%
Obviously, AA is very strong here. B6 yield is down about 10% YoY, but their position vs WN and NK are more or less the same. This seems to be generally a higher yielding route than the cancelled ones. The LF is good enough that they could add more frequency or upgauge. Maybe NK or WN could be pushed off this route.

FLLPIT 0994 B6 22576 131.11 128.95 357.62 99.05% 150.30 83.00% 107.02 0.1077 100.00%
FLLPIT 0994 NK 21373 049.88 049.76 097.39 99.76% 150.40 82.63% 041.12 0.0414 38.42%
FLLPIT 0994 WN 34676 143.69 140.16 160.35 82.52% 153.30 89.04% 124.79 0.1255 116.60%
Huge bloodbath here. I don't think anyone was doing that great, which is why it was disappointing to see them giving up here. WN isn't exactly dominant at PIT. I think A220 would work much better here.

FLLRDU 0680 B6 30447 157.02 157.01 192.00 99.95% 101.10 84.34% 132.42 0.1947 100.00%
FLLRDU 0680 G7 3735 167.92 167.28 181.56 95.52% 071.00 90.66% 151.65 0.2230 114.52%
FLLRDU 0680 OO 8483 175.77 172.24 231.38 94.02% 076.00 90.01% 155.04 0.2280 117.08%
FLLRDU 0680 WN 27638 148.67 142.30 176.49 81.36% 146.60 91.53% 130.25 0.1915 98.36%
A bright spot for B6. Yields are very good for such a short route. Strong performance against both DL regional and WN. Good fare numbers with slightly lower LF. Their yields are down 5 to 10% YoY after they doubled capacity.

FLLRIC 0805 B6 28248 153.30 153.11 244.62 99.80% 101.00 79.02% 120.98 0.1503 100.00%
FLLRIC 0805 NK 20027 053.53 053.53 000.00 100.00% 147.20 74.76% 040.02 0.0497 33.08%
Another good market for B6. Yields are down 20% YoY due to NK entrance here + B6 doubling of capacity.

FLLORD 1182 AA 52450 163.68 163.34 166.02 87.45% 160.00 92.08% 150.41 0.1273 146.23%
FLLORD 1182 B6 24380 114.37 113.91 306.39 99.76% 150.00 90.30% 102.86 0.0870 100.00%
FLLORD 1182 NK 97115 058.06 057.50 092.19 98.40% 208.60 89.38% 051.39 0.0435 49.96%
FLLORD 1182 UA 86526 173.69 170.42 324.37 97.87% 162.10 90.49% 154.22 0.1305 149.94%
This is the toughest market of all. Yields dropped slightly YoY. I think this a market they need to stay in even with the losses. Let's see what B6 route planners think.

FLLSJU 1046 B6 119838 121.44 121.44 000.00 100.00% 147.00 84.36% 102.45 0.0979 100.00%
FLLSJU 1046 NK 44430 060.41 060.14 107.75 99.43% 209.40 89.51% 053.83 0.0515 52.55%
FLLSJU 1046 WN 74733 105.36 105.04 201.41 99.67% 153.00 88.02% 092.46 0.0884 90.25%
SJU yields are down drastically across the board YoY, so pretty big bloodbath here. They are definitely the strongest here, but are likely loosing money. A year ago, B6 average fare was $161 just to give a sense of where SJU numbers are suffering.

FLLBQN 0982 B6 20897 105.61 105.61 000.00 100.00% 150.00 81.47% 086.04 0.0876 100.00%
FLLBQN 0982 NK 26676 056.63 056.63 000.00 100.00% 183.90 81.47% 046.14 0.0470 53.62%
Same thing over at BQN. Low yields all the way around. Pretty sure both airlines are loosing money here. These are the kind of market BE would work well.

FLLATL 0581 B6 47776 115.37 115.37 000.00 100.00% 150.00 88.23% 101.79 0.1752 100.00%
FLLATL 0581 DL 420465 145.23 145.18 406.78 99.98% 182.50 89.79% 130.35 0.2244 128.06%
FLLATL 0581 NK 111910 053.34 053.24 087.87 99.71% 175.30 88.53% 047.13 0.0811 46.31%
FLLATL 0581 WN 129633 122.26 121.80 130.71 94.89% 159.50 89.42% 108.92 0.1875 107.01%
Not bad numbers considering the distance and the fact they are operating A320s here. B6 entrance here seem to have the worst effect on NK. they should consider adding another flight to improve their schedule a little bit.

Overall, their strength at FLL at the NorthEast, premium transcon and Latin America stuff. The middle of the country flights are always going to be tougher, especially into WN strongholds like BNA/MSY/BWI.

Thanks for this. For me the most impressive takeaway is B6 strength on FLL-RIC & FLL-RDU. The later being a route I feared B6 would get chased off eventually. DL is moving it to mainline early next year FWIW. But this shows jetBlue has a strength in the mid Atlantic states that they lack in the Midwest at least in terms of FLL flights.

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

evank516 wrote:

FLL-JAX was actually a WN route before B6 came in. WN axed the route in the past and I believe B6 started the day after WN ended it.

Correct. Lots of anxiety down here when WN axed the route leaving people to AA's mercy out of MIA. B6 announced the route before WN departed and started it soon after. Not sure if it was the very next day but sounds right actually. Then oddly WN has four years later returned.

I wouldn't consider it odd with NK, B6, and WN all going head to head (to head) with each other in FLL nowadays. Market conditions were very different when WN axed it.

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

Thanks for this. For me the most impressive takeaway is B6 strength on FLL-RIC & FLL-RDU. The later being a route I feared B6 would get chased off eventually. DL is moving it to mainline early next year FWIW. But this shows jetBlue has a strength in the mid Atlantic states that they lack in the Midwest at least in terms of FLL flights.

Having seen a lot of this. My read is that DL's strength at RDU is vastly overrated. Seems like they still share point of sale with other carriers. That's the kind of market B6 does well out of FLL aside from their usual strength areas. They struggle in markets in other parts of the country going to stations dominated by WN or US3. Would be interesting to see how well FLL-PHX since they have very little presence there.

EBiafore99 wrote:

I'm a DTW flyer and B6 fan. I have been reading this thread and one basic question comes to mind that maybe some of you more familiar with B6 can answer...is B6 trying to be a point-to-point carrier or a connecting type carrier? I ask from the standpoint of DTW-FLL for example. When I booked flights from DTW to the Caribbean (several times), I always had to stay overnight either on the way to my destination or back to DTW. It didn't bother me, so I usually booked the flight anyway. Even when I take flights to the east coast connecting in BOS, I hardly have a flight connection less than 2 hours.

From a NY perspective, I can see B6 being able to be point-to-point because of population. However, outside NY, it seems as if their trying to be both? Or, maybe from the Midwest, the flights funnel in to BOS/JFK/FLL and you can connect when possible? I am not being critical, but this could be the problem. In terms of DTW-FLL, many people have commented about whether it was for O&D traffic or for connecting traffic. Well, I can tell you the connectivity from the flight was difficult at best. Maybe I am being too basic on this, so any insight would be appreciated.

BOS is probably the closest they have to a connection type of hubs since they connect a lot with international partners also. They are probably more dependent on O&D than anyone else at FLL. I think they have some more work to do to make FLL a real hub to Latin America. It seem to me they can't just depend on O&D traffic.

Dieuwer wrote:

AM ditching BOS should help B6 with its MEX service.

Looks like AM is gone by second week of January. Good news for B6.

tphuang wrote:

FLLPHL 0992 AA 100519 171.27 170.25 197.33 96.24% 170.50 92.53% 157.54 0.1588 130.17%
FLLPHL 0992 B6 43315 137.81 137.47 224.17 99.61% 150.00 88.04% 121.03 0.1220 100.00%
FLLPHL 0992 NK 29283 057.51 057.35 073.88 99.06% 158.60 90.08% 051.67 0.0521 42.69%
FLLPHL 0992 WN 25601 146.41 141.38 172.10 83.63% 153.50 91.14% 128.86 0.1299 106.47%
Obviously, AA is very strong here. B6 yield is down about 10% YoY, but their position vs WN and NK are more or less the same. This seems to be generally a higher yielding route than the cancelled ones. The LF is good enough that they could add more frequency or upgauge. Maybe NK or WN could be pushed off this route.

For a period of time rather recently WN dropped PHL-FLL to seasonal then it added back year round and might have even upped capacity a bit. So B6 might have had WN on the ropes, but it wasn't enough to push them out. Now NK is up to 2-3 daily so they are digging in their heels. B6 plans to drop PHL-FLL to 1x daily in May. Let's see if that is a brief seasonal reduction or something that continues when they extend their schedule into the summer. I believe they've dropped PHL-FLL frequencies a bit in past summers.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

JetBlue’s biggest threat imho is DL, and they aren’t alone. DL is positioned to siphon traffic away from other carriers in a boa-like fashion. It’s been a years-long process and it isn’t over, but until DL has a setback they will continue to work to strangle other carriers with their product and network strengths.

If possible, could you elaborate? I'm genuinely curious for your perspective. Why is DL more boa-like and in better position than others overall, and what do you see as far as the process/strategy that they have/are pursuing?

adtall wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

JetBlue’s biggest threat imho is DL, and they aren’t alone. DL is positioned to siphon traffic away from other carriers in a boa-like fashion. It’s been a years-long process and it isn’t over, but until DL has a setback they will continue to work to strangle other carriers with their product and network strengths.

If possible, could you elaborate? I'm genuinely curious for your perspective. Why is DL more boa-like and in better position than others overall, and what do you see as far as the process/strategy that they have/are pursuing?

Personally, I look at their product cohesiveness, aircraft selection, hub network, and focus city strategy as a strong combination that allows them to be relevant in more and more key business markets. In some cases they aren’t the strongest performing but it’s the overall network and product that continues to mature and strengthen domestically. AA is not that aggressive and tends to not buildup multiple focus cities outside of their hubs. UA is growing but both are just behind DL in an overall way. For B6 and AS it’s just going to be hard outside of their core strengths to remain as competitive.

But that’s just my take.

usairways85 wrote:

For a period of time rather recently WN dropped PHL-FLL to seasonal then it added back year round and might have even upped capacity a bit. So B6 might have had WN on the ropes, but it wasn't enough to push them out. Now NK is up to 2-3 daily so they are digging in their heels. B6 plans to drop PHL-FLL to 1x daily in May. Let's see if that is a brief seasonal reduction or something that continues when they extend their schedule into the summer. I believe they've dropped PHL-FLL frequencies a bit in past summers.

Interesting. It's not a surprise to drop frequencies during summer. They've done that even out of EWR and BOS. But long term, probably only one of B6/WN will be able to stick it out.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Personally, I look at their product cohesiveness, aircraft selection, hub network, and focus city strategy as a strong combination that allows them to be relevant in more and more key business markets. In some cases they aren’t the strongest performing but it’s the overall network and product that continues to mature and strengthen domestically. AA is not that aggressive and tends to not buildup multiple focus cities outside of their hubs. UA is growing but both are just behind DL in an overall way. For B6 and AS it’s just going to be hard outside of their core strengths to remain as competitive.

But that’s just my take.

The problem for B6 and AS is that DL is just so much larger. DL can shoulder a lot more losses than smaller airlines like B6 and AS. And they make a fortune on their fortress hubs, which allow them to do that. AS has actually been hurt by the resurgence of UA also at it's SFO station. If UA can get to DL profit level, they will start adding non-hub routes too. In terms of competition with DL, B6 has had to deal with that at JFK for all of its existence, so I don't see BOS will be any different. And it has advantages at BOS that it simply doesn't have at NYC, so I think they will be fine. A lot of the routes where DL is doing terribly on right now like PIT, BUF and SFO imo are not going to last. It's normal that in an expansion, not every route will work out. At some point, an equilibrium will be reached. Until then, the yields will be squeezed. For both AS and B6, they need to defend their primary stations first and worry about secondary stations after. That's why you see AS cut back on SFO/LAX and stop growing at SAN. That's why you see B6 cutting back on LGB and stop growing at MCO and SJU.

tphuang wrote:

usairways85 wrote:

For a period of time rather recently WN dropped PHL-FLL to seasonal then it added back year round and might have even upped capacity a bit. So B6 might have had WN on the ropes, but it wasn't enough to push them out. Now NK is up to 2-3 daily so they are digging in their heels. B6 plans to drop PHL-FLL to 1x daily in May. Let's see if that is a brief seasonal reduction or something that continues when they extend their schedule into the summer. I believe they've dropped PHL-FLL frequencies a bit in past summers.

Interesting. It's not a surprise to drop frequencies during summer. They've done that even out of EWR and BOS. But long term, probably only one of B6/WN will be able to stick it out.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Personally, I look at their product cohesiveness, aircraft selection, hub network, and focus city strategy as a strong combination that allows them to be relevant in more and more key business markets. In some cases they aren’t the strongest performing but it’s the overall network and product that continues to mature and strengthen domestically. AA is not that aggressive and tends to not buildup multiple focus cities outside of their hubs. UA is growing but both are just behind DL in an overall way. For B6 and AS it’s just going to be hard outside of their core strengths to remain as competitive.

But that’s just my take.

The problem for B6 and AS is that DL is just so much larger. DL can shoulder a lot more losses than smaller airlines like B6 and AS. And they make a fortune on their fortress hubs, which allow them to do that. AS has actually been hurt by the resurgence of UA also at it's SFO station. If UA can get to DL profit level, they will start adding non-hub routes too. In terms of competition with DL, B6 has had to deal with that at JFK for all of its existence, so I don't see BOS will be any different. And it has advantages at BOS that it simply doesn't have at NYC, so I think they will be fine. A lot of the routes where DL is doing terribly on right now like PIT, BUF and SFO imo are not going to last. It's normal that in an expansion, not every route will work out. At some point, an equilibrium will be reached. Until then, the yields will be squeezed. For both AS and B6, they need to defend their primary stations first and worry about secondary stations after. That's why you see AS cut back on SFO/LAX and stop growing at SAN. That's why you see B6 cutting back on LGB and stop growing at MCO and SJU.

Exactly. And the squeeze continues. Delta doesn’t have to beat AS or B6 today - they are playing the long game. That doesn’t mean the smaller carriers won’t have successes but I think in the grand scheme of things we can see how it will likely play out.

cledaybuck wrote:

Abeam79 wrote:

all airbus in a few years for B6

In name only. The planes were designed by two different companies. I doubt there is much commonality.

Tom Enders said Airbus plans to harmonize both aircrafts. “But while the two aircraft lines are distinct, he signals that Airbus will aim to bring the two designs closer.“
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 20-442227/
Not exactly like the A320 but will share many technology and parts together, making it much more common than A320/E190 fleets which share zero commonality. Heck A220 and A320/321neo will have the same engines. That alone will save them millions.

B6's presence in AUS has been steady for the past ~4 years (most recent drop was SFO back in 2014). What are the possibilities they enter deeper into the AUS market, competing with DL and WN? IMO, AA needs a steady competitor in the MIA market, and if B6 could beef up with more AUS-FLL frequencies there could be a good battle. Maybe break into some cities F9 threw across the dartboard as well.

tkoenig95 wrote:

B6's presence in AUS has been steady for the past ~4 years (most recent drop was SFO back in 2014). What are the possibilities they enter deeper into the AUS market, competing with DL and WN? IMO, AA needs a steady competitor in the MIA market, and if B6 could beef up with more AUS-FLL frequencies there could be a good battle. Maybe break into some cities F9 threw across the dartboard as well.

I think they missed the opportunity already. If they were to do it, it should've been 2010 or something like that. But they have focused on NorthEast to Florida market since then and I think AUS is long gone. The issue with B6 at AUS is that it's simply not a good fit. They are non-existent in the middle of the country, especially Texas, which are the largest markets out of AUS. I was trying to think of a way a while back for B6 to expand their presence at AUS and I simply couldn't come up with a schedule of 20 flights a day. And WN is also too dominant there. So I think that's why you are seeing them stagnant in recent years. Their costs are too high now to start fresh building new focus city from scratch when there is already dominant carrier there.

tphuang wrote:

usairways85 wrote:

For a period of time rather recently WN dropped PHL-FLL to seasonal then it added back year round and might have even upped capacity a bit. So B6 might have had WN on the ropes, but it wasn't enough to push them out. Now NK is up to 2-3 daily so they are digging in their heels. B6 plans to drop PHL-FLL to 1x daily in May. Let's see if that is a brief seasonal reduction or something that continues when they extend their schedule into the summer. I believe they've dropped PHL-FLL frequencies a bit in past summers.

Interesting. It's not a surprise to drop frequencies during summer. They've done that even out of EWR and BOS. But long term, probably only one of B6/WN will be able to stick it out.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Personally, I look at their product cohesiveness, aircraft selection, hub network, and focus city strategy as a strong combination that allows them to be relevant in more and more key business markets. In some cases they aren’t the strongest performing but it’s the overall network and product that continues to mature and strengthen domestically. AA is not that aggressive and tends to not buildup multiple focus cities outside of their hubs. UA is growing but both are just behind DL in an overall way. For B6 and AS it’s just going to be hard outside of their core strengths to remain as competitive.

But that’s just my take.

The problem for B6 and AS is that DL is just so much larger. DL can shoulder a lot more losses than smaller airlines like B6 and AS. And they make a fortune on their fortress hubs, which allow them to do that. AS has actually been hurt by the resurgence of UA also at it's SFO station. If UA can get to DL profit level, they will start adding non-hub routes too. In terms of competition with DL, B6 has had to deal with that at JFK for all of its existence, so I don't see BOS will be any different. And it has advantages at BOS that it simply doesn't have at NYC, so I think they will be fine. A lot of the routes where DL is doing terribly on right now like PIT, BUF and SFO imo are not going to last. It's normal that in an expansion, not every route will work out. At some point, an equilibrium will be reached. Until then, the yields will be squeezed. For both AS and B6, they need to defend their primary stations first and worry about secondary stations after. That's why you see AS cut back on SFO/LAX and stop growing at SAN. That's why you see B6 cutting back on LGB and stop growing at MCO and SJU.

In BUF they went from 3x CR2 to 3x E175. It must not be completely terrible to increase seats 50%.

maximairways wrote:

tphuang wrote:

usairways85 wrote:

For a period of time rather recently WN dropped PHL-FLL to seasonal then it added back year round and might have even upped capacity a bit. So B6 might have had WN on the ropes, but it wasn't enough to push them out. Now NK is up to 2-3 daily so they are digging in their heels. B6 plans to drop PHL-FLL to 1x daily in May. Let's see if that is a brief seasonal reduction or something that continues when they extend their schedule into the summer. I believe they've dropped PHL-FLL frequencies a bit in past summers.

Interesting. It's not a surprise to drop frequencies during summer. They've done that even out of EWR and BOS. But long term, probably only one of B6/WN will be able to stick it out.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Personally, I look at their product cohesiveness, aircraft selection, hub network, and focus city strategy as a strong combination that allows them to be relevant in more and more key business markets. In some cases they aren’t the strongest performing but it’s the overall network and product that continues to mature and strengthen domestically. AA is not that aggressive and tends to not buildup multiple focus cities outside of their hubs. UA is growing but both are just behind DL in an overall way. For B6 and AS it’s just going to be hard outside of their core strengths to remain as competitive.

But that’s just my take.

The problem for B6 and AS is that DL is just so much larger. DL can shoulder a lot more losses than smaller airlines like B6 and AS. And they make a fortune on their fortress hubs, which allow them to do that. AS has actually been hurt by the resurgence of UA also at it's SFO station. If UA can get to DL profit level, they will start adding non-hub routes too. In terms of competition with DL, B6 has had to deal with that at JFK for all of its existence, so I don't see BOS will be any different. And it has advantages at BOS that it simply doesn't have at NYC, so I think they will be fine. A lot of the routes where DL is doing terribly on right now like PIT, BUF and SFO imo are not going to last. It's normal that in an expansion, not every route will work out. At some point, an equilibrium will be reached. Until then, the yields will be squeezed. For both AS and B6, they need to defend their primary stations first and worry about secondary stations after. That's why you see AS cut back on SFO/LAX and stop growing at SAN. That's why you see B6 cutting back on LGB and stop growing at MCO and SJU.

In BUF they went from 3x CR2 to 3x E175. It must not be completely terrible to increase seats 50%.

Please check the numbers I posted earlier. I've listed BOS-BUF numbers in page 12. DL upgauged to have first class seat in all the flights they serve out of BOS. It has no relation to their performance on those routes.

Another set of data to look at from Q2 is PBI

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF AvgAsm PRASM Vs B6
PBIJFK 1028 9E 8128 180.19 178.35 349.22 98.92% 76.0 73.80% 131.63 0.1280 92.91%
PBIJFK 1028 B6 99773 175.28 174.80 395.66 99.78% 165.2 81.05% 141.68 0.1378 100.00%
PBIJFK 1028 DL 16702 178.07 176.48 284.09 98.53% 131.9 74.49% 131.47 0.1279 92.79%
PBIBOS 1197 B6 117033 189.36 189.15 223.33 99.38% 149.6 80.46% 152.19 0.1271 100.00%
PBILGA 1035 B6 58988 172.60 172.60 177.80 99.89% 133.7 83.85% 144.72 0.1398 100.00%
PBILGA 1035 DL 86788 202.97 201.33 390.21 99.13% 163.1 75.57% 152.14 0.1470 105.13%
PBIEWR 1023 B6 71412 154.41 154.30 504.50 99.97% 150.0 80.01% 123.46 0.1207 100.00%
PBIEWR 1023 UA 145991 182.74 182.62 363.69 99.94% 160.4 77.20% 140.98 0.1378 114.19%
PBIHPN 1056 B6 68144 220.55 220.55 0.00 100.00% 126.5 79.42% 175.16 0.1659 100.00%
PBIBDL 1133 B6 22347 214.40 214.67 195.73 98.60% 150.0 81.86% 175.72 0.1551 100.00%
PBIDCA 857 AA 26092 186.10 181.35 233.05 90.80% 129.2 78.89% 143.06 0.1669 94.85%
PBIDCA 857 B6 15595 177.18 176.02 500.40 99.64% 101.1 85.69% 150.83 0.1760 100.00%

It's important to note that this is not B6's best quarter at PBI. In many quarters, they outperform even FLL from the same station. It seems like they command even more point of sale there than FLL. So it's not surprisingly they added PVD and added more winter capacity out of BDL, BOS and HPN. HPN-PBI is probably their best performing Northeast to Florida route. It routinely posts some of the best fare numbers and have also probably the highest ratio of mosaic passengers in the JetBlue network. So, PBI seems to be a station they could capitalize on with more flights, especially in winter season. Now, I assume most of the O&D to PBI is from New York to New England area. A lot of my colleagues have homes down there.

My question is outside of what they already have, where else is their demand for PBI that would not hurt their FLL operation? For example, it seems to me SWF-PBI could work given that some people in North Westchester, North NJ and CT may find it more convenient to fly out of SWF than HPN. And they simply can't add more HPN flights. Would BUF work in bringing in some cross border traffic to PBI?

And looking further south, could they add something like RDU/RIC-PBI to solidify their presence in the mid-atlantic? Or out west, could they add something like MSY or AUS or even LAX down the road? Or could they add a couple of seasonal Caribbean routes like PBI-PUJ/MBJ for the folks that want even warmer weather in winter time. I'm not familiar with the area around PBI at all. Where else are there demand for PBI?

Get ready for more B6 cuts beginning of January. Also this week big announcement. Listen for news from Boston on Wednesday.

Blueknows wrote:

Get ready for more B6 cuts beginning of January. Also this week big announcement. Listen for news from Boston on Wednesday.

One can hope, but hopimg for a total shutter of LGB and an increase at LAX, SAN and BUR. Hope for some new Mid-West adds, Mint product on every fleet type, an alliance membership, and finally a plan for Europe.

Huge B6 advocate here, hands down best US airline with greatest service and greatest product in both coach offerings and premium domestically. I’m very anti merger in the airline industry, but I would love to see and am with total confidence predicting within the next 18 months is a B6 and AS tie up with the B6 name surviving. The only way they can survive against giant 3 and big 4th and also have any means to have any presence on the west coast would be a merger or buyout with AS.


If B6 were to ever try to find a west coast market to build a west coast hub or large focus city there really isn’t an airport with any available space really other than PDX, and those numbers aren’t very impressive for B6 so that rules out that option. They would need AS to be able to have a large hub in SEA with focus cities in SFO,LAX, and SAN and would put them in very close competition with WN nationally on the west coast.

I have an “insight” that AS and B6 were planning on merging before the sale of VX and eventual deal but figured the only for sure means of making sure a merger would be highly successful was by eliminating a competitor within the competing LCC market. Both would outbid another to guarantee one would win and would drive up the price high enough for a legacy carrier to not view worthwhile to pursue. Basically using the VX deal as a business Trojan horse to create unorganically an airline with the size and network to genuinely compete with not only the legacy domestic network but also against WN.

nine4nine wrote:

Blueknows wrote:

Get ready for more B6 cuts beginning of January. Also this week big announcement. Listen for news from Boston on Wednesday.

One can hope, but hopimg for a total shutter of LGB and an increase at LAX, SAN and BUR. Hope for some new Mid-West adds, Mint product on every fleet type, an alliance membership, and finally a plan for Europe.

Huge B6 advocate here, hands down best US airline with greatest service and greatest product in both coach offerings and premium domestically. I’m very anti merger in the airline industry, but I would love to see and am with total confidence predicting within the next 18 months is a B6 and AS tie up with the B6 name surviving. The only way they can survive against giant 3 and big 4th and also have any means to have any presence on the west coast would be a merger or buyout with AS.


If B6 were to ever try to find a west coast market to build a west coast hub or large focus city there really isn’t an airport with any available space really other than PDX, and those numbers aren’t very impressive for B6 so that rules out that option. They would need AS to be able to have a large hub in SEA with focus cities in SFO,LAX, and SAN and would put them in very close competition with WN nationally on the west coast.

I have an “insight” that AS and B6 were planning on merging before the sale of VX and eventual deal but figured the only for sure means of making sure a merger would be highly successful was by eliminating a competitor within the competing LCC market. Both would outbid another to guarantee one would win and would drive up the price high enough for a legacy carrier to not view worthwhile to pursue. Basically using the VX deal as a business Trojan horse to create unorganically an airline with the size and network to genuinely compete with not only the legacy domestic network but also against WN.

Interesting post, but not really sure if I personally agree with a lot of it.

1. LAX/SAN/BUR - I suppose as long as they can get gates, they can build up, but at least at LAX I think that's a near term problem.
2. I'm not sure what will be left of AS' network after a B6 takeover. Will QX have a role? Will OO have a role? Does B6 want to be the state airline of Alaska? Will removing F and replacing it with either Mint or Core work in the AS network? What will their cost structure look like afterwards?
3. I have zero faith that anything relating to VX was amicable. Were that true at any level, heads should roll at both carriers. At B6, for missing a golden opportunity to usurp VX' following and gate space in the west; for AS, for purposely spending up when they could have let B6 do so (since they would then be merging anyhow).

Just my two cents.

Look for a possible B6 and HA merger

Blueknows wrote:

Get ready for more B6 cuts beginning of January. Also this week big announcement. Listen for news from Boston on Wednesday.

The Leadership team will be in Boston for a base meeting in Thursday. So it seems like they will be up that way. If it’s a Boston announcement I would think it might be the long awaited TATL announcement.
I’m not sure what other big announcement would come out of there.

Where are these other cuts? Out west?

Not to be rude but these are your first two posts so I’m looking for my grain of salt

fastmover wrote:

Blueknows wrote:

Get ready for more B6 cuts beginning of January. Also this week big announcement. Listen for news from Boston on Wednesday.

The Leadership team will be in Boston for a base meeting in Thursday. So it seems like they will be up that way. If it’s a Boston announcement I would think it might be the long awaited TATL announcement.
I’m not sure what other big announcement would come out of there.

STL, SAT, CVG, MCI, CMH, IND, ORF, and MKE are located in the largest U.S. metro areas that aren't currently served by B6, and B6 might possibly be announcing nonstop service from BOS to some of these destinations.

I certainly wouldn't be surprised for more cuts. It seems like the last round wasn't all of it. And they also fund new routes with cuts to under performing ones. I wonder if some of these will just be seasonal cuts or will all be cuts year round.

One thing I have noticed recently is that their schedule at JFK on Tue/Wed is dramatically less than their schedule on Mon/Thu/Fri/Sun. Looks like they are much more aggressive about reducing capacity on off peak days (for example, yesterday they were at 158 flights and Tue/Wed often get about 140 flights).

Looks like there will be a lot to talk about next week.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

nine4nine wrote:

Blueknows wrote:

Get ready for more B6 cuts beginning of January. Also this week big announcement. Listen for news from Boston on Wednesday.

One can hope, but hopimg for a total shutter of LGB and an increase at LAX, SAN and BUR. Hope for some new Mid-West adds, Mint product on every fleet type, an alliance membership, and finally a plan for Europe.

Huge B6 advocate here, hands down best US airline with greatest service and greatest product in both coach offerings and premium domestically. I’m very anti merger in the airline industry, but I would love to see and am with total confidence predicting within the next 18 months is a B6 and AS tie up with the B6 name surviving. The only way they can survive against giant 3 and big 4th and also have any means to have any presence on the west coast would be a merger or buyout with AS.


If B6 were to ever try to find a west coast market to build a west coast hub or large focus city there really isn’t an airport with any available space really other than PDX, and those numbers aren’t very impressive for B6 so that rules out that option. They would need AS to be able to have a large hub in SEA with focus cities in SFO,LAX, and SAN and would put them in very close competition with WN nationally on the west coast.

I have an “insight” that AS and B6 were planning on merging before the sale of VX and eventual deal but figured the only for sure means of making sure a merger would be highly successful was by eliminating a competitor within the competing LCC market. Both would outbid another to guarantee one would win and would drive up the price high enough for a legacy carrier to not view worthwhile to pursue. Basically using the VX deal as a business Trojan horse to create unorganically an airline with the size and network to genuinely compete with not only the legacy domestic network but also against WN.

Interesting post, but not really sure if I personally agree with a lot of it.

1. LAX/SAN/BUR - I suppose as long as they can get gates, they can build up, but at least at LAX I think that's a near term problem.
2. I'm not sure what will be left of AS' network after a B6 takeover. Will QX have a role? Will OO have a role? Does B6 want to be the state airline of Alaska? Will removing F and replacing it with either Mint or Core work in the AS network? What will their cost structure look like afterwards?
3. I have zero faith that anything relating to VX was amicable. Were that true at any level, heads should roll at both carriers. At B6, for missing a golden opportunity to usurp VX' following and gate space in the west; for AS, for purposely spending up when they could have let B6 do so (since they would then be merging anyhow).

Just my two cents.

I think if they get gates at LAX, LGB is gone and they will devote some resources to building that up. Those LAX gates are hard to. JetBlue management has made numerous blunders over time, but not getting LAX gates when available have to be up there. I think BUR might get a couple of more transcon flights, but that would be it. If AS can't compete with WN in those secondary cali market, B6 certainly doesn't have a chance. SAN gates are hard to get too. I think what you see now at SAN is all you will see for a long time.

I think B6 and AS merger would be a better scenario for consumers than a lot of merger scenarios people have brought up, but I just don't see it happening. I can't see B6 pilots giving up scope protection that they have worked hard to get and a lot of AS network doesn't work without regional flying. But long term, it's in their best interest to at least having some kind of code share or at minimal interline agreement setup. They clearly have common adversaries at hand and only compete in some transcon markets. Being able to feed into each other's network can't be a bad thing considering they have so little overlap.

Blueknows wrote:

Look for a possible B6 and HA merger

Why?

jplatts wrote:

fastmover wrote:

Blueknows wrote:

Get ready for more B6 cuts beginning of January. Also this week big announcement. Listen for news from Boston on Wednesday.

The Leadership team will be in Boston for a base meeting in Thursday. So it seems like they will be up that way. If it’s a Boston announcement I would think it might be the long awaited TATL announcement.
I’m not sure what other big announcement would come out of there.

STL, SAT, CVG, MCI, CMH, IND, ORF, and MKE are located in the largest U.S. metro areas that aren't currently served by B6, and B6 might possibly be announcing nonstop service from BOS to some of these destinations.

True I guess I just don’t see that as a “big announcement”

But again this is a rumor

ABQ RNO keep floating to the top when they talk about cuts.

Watch those.

B6 is a vacation airline not a legacy HA is perfect fit for the current model

jfklganyc wrote:

ABQ RNO keep floating to the top when they talk about cuts.

Watch those.

Wouldn't be shocked at all. They can't even hold RNO down with a daily JFK flight. They've cut frequencies on and off in the past.

Blueknows wrote:

B6 is a vacation airline not a legacy HA is perfect fit for the current model

That doesn’t explain anything.

By that logic, look for AS and UA soon. Look for NK and F9 soon. Look for SY and G4 soon. Etc.

How many gates does HA control at the big west coast cities? I could see a B6 takeover of HA where they drastically cut Hawaii/Asia flying and cannibalize the aircraft for more continental flying and the HA widebodies for Europe, and cannibalize the HA west coast gate space as a poor man's VX gambit.

CobaltScar wrote:

How many gates does HA control at the big west coast cities? I could see a B6 takeover of HA where they drastically cut Hawaii/Asia flying and cannibalize the aircraft for more continental flying and the HA widebodies for Europe, and cannibalize the HA west coast gate space as a poor man's VX gambit.

At LAX, they share some CUTE gates with HA. At SFO, HA flies out of some CUTE gates in the same international terminal that B6 flies out of.

I'm not sure what a merger with HA would bring that that their current partnership has not already brought them. I can see why this would be a good time for HA to look for merger opportunities though. WN is entering those secondary Cali to Hawaii markets and also inter-island stuff. All routes where HA has been milking. Their profit is going down next year.

JetBlue facilities in Boston, apart from the check in area, TSA screening and gates C8-10, are garbage and need to be completely torn down and rebuilt. I am hoping the announcement will be for a substantial facilities upgrade at Boston.

B752OS wrote:

JetBlue facilities in Boston, apart from the check in area, TSA screening and gates C8-10, are garbage and need to be completely torn down and rebuilt. I am hoping the announcement will be for a substantial facilities upgrade at Boston.

They're in the old Delta section, correct? That area hasn't changed since the 70s.

HA/B6 merger make zero sense other than getting B6 into Hawaii and with Interisland service. A gate in SEA/PDX/OAK/SJC/SMF/LAS/PHX/LGB. 2 CUTE gates in SFO/LAX. I’m certain the partnership and feed between B6 and HA is just enough for them other than getting ETOPS 321/220 with they’re own metal which I don’t see happening.

The only way B6 will EVER have size or meaningful presence in the West that would be worthwhile, AS is the only option. Granted they would probably shed most state of Alaska routes and drop a chunk of smaller regional markets and focus on SEA as a core west coast hub with LAX,SFO and SAN as focus cities. By offering a better experience and hard product than WN they can truly give WN much more of a fight than current AS can and is weakly attempting to do. They can be equally as strong out west as they are back east with the right sized operation at the right airports and the right timed frequencies. Luring business travelers with the mint product which should be integrated fleet wide, granted a non-lie flat business version for the 320/220.