Bricktop
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 4:56 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
It seems the predictions to what will be cancelled and what will be kept are based on fanboyism towards ones chosen manufacturer. Almost like "analysis" at few blogs out there.


Feel free to give us your take then. On the record.

Actually, I thought this thread was pretty much free of the usual partisan nonsense. People who I had mind-labelled as Boeing fanboys saying the 777X order is in trouble, and likewise Airbus fanboys with the A350. All in all, a rather mature discussion, IMO.
 
george77300
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:05 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
Cancel the 787-9 and -10 order altogehter and sell the existing -9 fleet on the market, full replacement with the A350-900/1000 fleet.

Furthermore getting rid of the 777X - or at least delay it.

Or...
Or...
Or...

Might not be the obivous ones. Might as well be a question if something moves in the secondary market, if lessor are at play, ...


Well we have a Airbus fanboy here. There is no way they will cancel and sell off all there new 787-9 just to go to a new aircraft type. More likely cancel all A350 (&777X) and consolidate on the 787. Simpler and more cost effective.
A306 A313 A319 A320 A20N A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A388

B712 B733 B734 B735 B738 B742 B744 B752 B763 B772 B77E B773 B77W B788

AT75 AT76 B190 C208 DH3T E175 P46T SF34 SR20 SR22 TBM8
 
george77300
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:07 pm

Bricktop wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
It seems the predictions to what will be cancelled and what will be kept are based on fanboyism towards ones chosen manufacturer. Almost like "analysis" at few blogs out there.


Feel free to give us your take then. On the record.

Actually, I thought this thread was pretty much free of the usual partisan nonsense. People who I had mind-labelled as Boeing fanboys saying the 777X order is in trouble, and likewise Airbus fanboys with the A350. All in all, a rather mature discussion, IMO.


Agreed. Very good discussion with the exception of the one who though cancel B777X and all future B787 and sell off their current 25 ish B789 and replace all with all the A350. Madness that is... :rotfl:
A306 A313 A319 A320 A20N A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A388

B712 B733 B734 B735 B738 B742 B744 B752 B763 B772 B77E B773 B77W B788

AT75 AT76 B190 C208 DH3T E175 P46T SF34 SR20 SR22 TBM8
 
Flying-Tiger
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:16 pm

george77300 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Feel free to give us your take then. On the record.

Actually, I thought this thread was pretty much free of the usual partisan nonsense. People who I had mind-labelled as Boeing fanboys saying the 777X order is in trouble, and likewise Airbus fanboys with the A350. All in all, a rather mature discussion, IMO.


Agreed. Very good discussion with the exception of the one who though cancel B777X and all future B787 and sell off their current 25 ish B789 and replace all with all the A350. Madness that is... :rotfl:


Not able to read, are we? Stranger things have happened - remember Boeing buying 17 Airbus A340-300 (some yet to be delivered) from Singapore Airlines to place B777s? Worked in the long-term for Boeing.

Furthermore: it might not be fully Etihad´s decision to be made, we don´t know what Airbus & Boeing as well as several lessor may play behind the scenes.

Thus: whatever might look obvious as a decision (cancel 777X and a good part of the A350s, keep the 787s) might not how it will end.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,...
 
bigjku
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:42 pm

Clearly if cost cutting is the goal consolidating on what you already have in service makes the most sense.

The A359 order should be readily dumpable given the healthy backlog I can imagine you could find a builder and buyers willing to work it out in some combination. Even if Airbus wouldn’t work with you I would imagine you could lease them or sell them to lessors for some reasonable price.

The A350-1000 and 77X are different animal. There former should be more easily moveable but they don’t have all that much market penetration on it yet. Airbus could likely convert the production slots to 9’s I suspect though the exact breakdown of the volume capacity for the bespoke parts for the A359 and the 1000 isn’t public knowledge. But those issues would be minor for Airbus I would think.

The 77X you may have to bite the bullet and pay the fees to dump. Though I think long-term deferrals make some sense if the airline ever gets its act together. It has some routes that could take advantage of that capability.
 
intothinair
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 7:49 pm

I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 8:37 pm

intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.

Okay, so here is my take: they will cancel all orders, sell all aircraft and re-start operations with B757X-neo-MAX leased from Amadeo, secretly built by Boeing in these rusty 777X-autoclaves and operated by Batia Air and Arkia. Everything else is simply unrealistic.
 
Antarius
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 8:47 pm

intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.


Definitely. I also heard they are going to bring back some A300s from the boneyard.
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 8:58 pm

intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.


You're forgetting the new order for ATR game changers ;)
 
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Faro
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 9:04 pm

Antarius wrote:
intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.


Definitely. I also heard they are going to bring back some A300s from the boneyard.



Enter the MercureEXTRA...


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glideslope
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 9:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:
glideslope wrote:
There are both financial and political components to this. IMO, Boeing looses 10-789J/10-787K slots. Airbus looses 10 NEO and all 350K. No hit to the 359 or 777X.


All depends on how many they want to keep: you could also argue that all 777-8/9 are gone and 25 of the A350-9/10. Or all 777-8/9 and 10 787 and 35 A350's. From a pure political point of view. What is your case for the 777-8/9 remaining? The cheapest option, from an operational point of view, getting rid of an entire family which you don't have, so that means the 777-8/9 or A350, but I see more need for the A350 than the 777 in the line-up of Etihad.


Good points. My concern with the 350 is still the lack of engine suppliers. I don't see them being so heavy in the 350, and IMO, the 350K will go. I think the 777 remaining is the best option for fleet engine costs.
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MatheusLPV
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 9:32 pm

I see two possible scenarios for EY :
1)
Cancel all the A350 order .
stick with the 787-9 and 787-10 to replace all the A330's and A340's
Deferral of the 777X until further notice(they will need this aircraft )
The A32N orders are safe and they might swap some A320neo for A321neo.
Try to get rid of the A380 Fleet.
2)
Cancel the entire 777X order and transfer this slots for EK.
Swap all the A350-900 orders for the A350-1000 and postpone some deliveries .
Stick with the 787-9 and 787-10 deferring some deliveries.
A380 fleet and crew should be offered in wet leasing contracts maybe helping EK with the shortage of crew.
A32N order untouchable .
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 10:36 pm

Amazing how many posters happily recommending EY to cancel 777X. Hope BCA has a plan B.
 
Antarius
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 10:41 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Amazing how many posters happily recommending EY to cancel 777X. Hope BCA has a plan B.


It makes sense for EY given their financial struggles. It has nothing to do with the 777X as an aircraft.

Your statement is on par with those a while ago declaring the a330neo family dead on the grounds that HA cancelled their order.

Correlation and causation are vastly different things.
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Bricktop
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 10:58 pm

intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.

What? No CS100 and CS300??
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 11:47 pm

Antarius wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Amazing how many posters happily recommending EY to cancel 777X. Hope BCA has a plan B.


It makes sense for EY given their financial struggles. It has nothing to do with the 777X as an aircraft.

Your statement is on par with those a while ago declaring the a330neo family dead on the grounds that HA cancelled their order.


EY has to do what ever suits its business. No hard feelings. BCA put all eggs in one basket. Hence my comment about having Plan B.

A330NEO is a $2B project, Airbus can say oh well we tried, didn't work. 777X is not that cheap.

This is not a A v B or anti-777X statement, just my long standing concern about 777X project.

Correlation and causation are vastly different things.


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Antarius
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 11:50 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
EY has to do what ever suits its business. No hard feelings. BCA put all eggs in one basket. Hence my comment about having Plan B.


What? The 787 is making them lots money. The Max10 is selling well. Deliveries are at a record high.

Sorry, thinking that Boeing put all eggs in one basket (the 777X) is just patently false. Their stock is one of the (if not the) leading performers on the S&P500. You can be concerned about the 77X, no issues, but that does not mean that Boeing is in trouble.
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mcogator
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 12:48 am

Well at least Abu Dhabi has the rise of oil prices to help pad their bottom line. At 3 million barrels/day, and about $20/barrel increase in price this year, they can make up that Etihad loss real quickly.
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Revelation
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 12:57 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Amazing how many posters happily recommending EY to cancel 777X. Hope BCA has a plan B.

They don't need one, because Plan A is to ignore anything recommended by a.net posters! :biggrin:

Honestly, no one knows what criteria EY will use when doing this review so no one knows what the outcome will be.
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Blerg
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 2:14 am

Etihad seems to be growing once again but they seem to being more cautious this time around. A few weeks ago they increased BEG from 7 to 10 and then yesterday they added another 2 flights to make it 12. Baku got extra flights while Nairobi was upgauged from an A320 to an A330. I think Rome was also increased from A330 to B789.
To me it makes sense for them to keep on receiving smaller widebody aircraft as they are still way behind Emirates, Turkish Airlines and Qatar in terms of network and the number of weekly frequencies they offer.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 4:02 am

Slash787 wrote:
In these hard times, Etihad needs a MoM

These would become long hard times until the MOM would be shipped...
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
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N14AZ
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 6:02 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
In these hard times, Etihad needs a MoM

These would become long hard times until the MOM would be shipped...

I think this was rather a pun/ play of words.. reminded me of the old Queen-song: „MOMa , ooooh oh oh ohhhhh ...I don't want to die
I sometimes wish I'd never been born at all“ as a symbol for EY‘s current financial situation. :duck:
 
Deeso
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 6:45 am

I think will reduce their order for A350 maybe swapping some for a few A32x and pass them to other airlines more to avoid penalties. Given the lead time of some parts it's very likely that components for the first A350-1000 are already produced and won't be cancelled. Something similar may happen with the 787. I guess the whole 777X order is at complete risk which makes me sad because even being an Airbus fan I do love the concept of the 777X and would be one of the prettiest planes ever in Etihad livery.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 6:53 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
In these hard times, Etihad needs a MoM

These would become long hard times until the MOM would be shipped...


I genuinely don't understand the argument. Although the MOM will probably a nice plane, no competitors have it either. And if the MOM is on the market, competitors will have it too. So it doesn't fundamentally change the comparators equation and thus profitability.

Two friends walked a trail in bear-country. The inevitable happened: they encountered a bear. Both stood frozen for a moment. Then one of them started to undo its shows and started to put on running shoes. The other said: "you will never outrun the bear" the reply: "I don't need to outrun the bear, I need to outrun you!"

That is competition in a nutshell for you.
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Dutchy
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 6:56 am

Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Amazing how many posters happily recommending EY to cancel 777X. Hope BCA has a plan B.

They don't need one, because Plan A is to ignore anything recommended by a.net posters! :biggrin:

Honestly, no one knows what criteria EY will use when doing this review so no one knows what the outcome will be.


Sure, that makes speculation about this, nice. Speculation and recommendations without consequences. And then see what happens. If we would not do this, this forum would be rather quiet. :lol:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
WIederling
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 7:24 am

Antarius wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Amazing how many posters happily recommending EY to cancel 777X. Hope BCA has a plan B.


It makes sense for EY given their financial struggles. It has nothing to do with the 777X as an aircraft.

Your statement is on par with those a while ago declaring the a330neo family dead on the grounds that HA cancelled their order.

Correlation and causation are vastly different things.


Improvements already have brought the A35K, a slightly smaller plane beyond 779X brochure numbers for EIS.
I'd expect some further twiddling here and there to increase the delta further till 779X EIS happens
and both types will turn to improving incrementally more or less in unison.

so: keep all 787, cancel 777X keep or increase A350 family purchases.
Murphy is an optimist
 
RandWkop
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 8:42 am

If they merge with Emirates, this is effectively an Emirates takeover. Does it then follow that the A350 order is dead? Emirates has already cancelled all theirs and ordered the 787 instead. Etihad have 787s in their fleet. If they have to find new owners for a few A350s, in pre production, it should not be a problem. Airbus are beholden to Emirates due to the A380 order book and would just have to take the pain. The Trent 900 rumours may not help the rr A350 case.
Alternately Emirates may see it as an opportunity to review their entire order book and decide that all those 777s are not needed after all. They would hold over 50% of the 777 orderbook and would maybe look to squeeze Boeing further.
They may also see real world numbers from the A35K and use the Etihad order to get it back in the fleet.
It's possible that the only safe order is the A32N followed by the 787 with some reductions.
 
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Slash787
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 4:06 pm

N14AZ wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
In these hard times, Etihad needs a MoM

These would become long hard times until the MOM would be shipped...

I think this was rather a pun/ play of words.. reminded me of the old Queen-song: „MOMa , ooooh oh oh ohhhhh ...I don't want to die
I sometimes wish I'd never been born at all“ as a symbol for EY‘s current financial situation. :duck:


Thank God someone got it.
 
intothinair
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 7:56 pm

N14AZ wrote:
intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.

Okay, so here is my take: they will cancel all orders, sell all aircraft and re-start operations with B757X-neo-MAX leased from Amadeo, secretly built by Boeing in these rusty 777X-autoclaves and operated by Batia Air and Arkia. Everything else is simply unrealistic.


I have been reading up about the B757X-neo-MAX. You might be onto something there. Would complement my earlier fleet suggestion well. Thank you N14AZ. Hope that the new CEO of Etihad is taking our suggestions into consideration. Very good.
 
intothinair
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 8:03 pm

Bricktop wrote:
intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.

What? No CS100 and CS300??


Forgot about the CS300. Could possibly replace the entire A320 / A321 fleet they have. Also been hearing that the ARJ21 might be an option for routes currently managed by the gas guzzling 77Ws since they are downsizing. They've been quite impressed with the dispatch reliability of this fantastic new bird. Might take over the 77Ws on key routes such as AUH - CDG with a quick 30min. stopover in Athens to refuel. Lets see what decision they eventually take. Wish them the best.
 
intothinair
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 8:08 pm

Antarius wrote:
intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.


Definitely. I also heard they are going to bring back some A300s from the boneyard.


I have heard the same. Fantastic birds. I hear they might replace the gas guzzling 77Ws to N. America with a quick fuel stop in Athens and Shannen. Lets see. Unlikely that the (slightly less) fuel guzzling 777X have a chance against the A300s as well. Lets see what decision they eventually take. Wish them the best. Always been a fan of Etihad.
 
Bricktop
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 8:49 pm

intothinair wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.

What? No CS100 and CS300??


Forgot about the CS300. Could possibly replace the entire A320 / A321 fleet they have. Also been hearing that the ARJ21 might be an option for routes currently managed by the gas guzzling 77Ws since they are downsizing. They've been quite impressed with the dispatch reliability of this fantastic new bird. Might take over the 77Ws on key routes such as AUH - CDG with a quick 30min. stopover in Athens to refuel. Lets see what decision they eventually take. Wish them the best.


:white:

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You cannot be serious!
 
Antarius
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 9:33 pm

intothinair wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
intothinair wrote:
I reckon they will cancel the 787 order outright and sell all the 787s that they already have. At the same time, they will increase the A350 order, order a dozen more A380s, and keep the A321 neo. Once the fuel guzzling 77Ws are retired in next 2 to 3 years, Etihad will have an all Airbus fleet. And then it will go uphill. Long term strategy.

What? No CS100 and CS300??


Forgot about the CS300. Could possibly replace the entire A320 / A321 fleet they have. Also been hearing that the ARJ21 might be an option for routes currently managed by the gas guzzling 77Ws since they are downsizing. They've been quite impressed with the dispatch reliability of this fantastic new bird. Might take over the 77Ws on key routes such as AUH - CDG with a quick 30min. stopover in Athens to refuel. Lets see what decision they eventually take. Wish them the best.


EY may just order some KC-135s to midair refuel these CS300s. Non stop to the USA next!
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Obzerva
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Tue May 08, 2018 11:13 pm

Blerg wrote:
Etihad seems to be growing once again but they seem to being more cautious this time around. A few weeks ago they increased BEG from 7 to 10 and then yesterday they added another 2 flights to make it 12. Baku got extra flights while Nairobi was upgauged from an A320 to an A330. I think Rome was also increased from A330 to B789.
To me it makes sense for them to keep on receiving smaller widebody aircraft as they are still way behind Emirates, Turkish Airlines and Qatar in terms of network and the number of weekly frequencies they offer.


I'm not sure BEG would be considered growth, when there was previously a daily EY plus a daily JU flight which is now gone.
Given that, it's now effectively gone from 14 flights to 10, the only difference is EY is operating all of the services, as opposed to half of the options being codeshare.
 
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qf789
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed May 09, 2018 11:54 am

Leeham's says EY is facing complex issues with fleet restructure

A330's EY has put all A330 up for sale last year however has been put on hold

787/777X - deferral/cancellations

Etihad also wants to defer or cancel Boeing 777X and 787 orders. The problem: credits from Boeing used in connection with some of these orders (believed to be the 777X) were applied toward the purchase price of the 787s. Canceling orders would require repayment, unless some accommodation were reached with Boeing. Deferring orders increases the price of the airplanes through escalation clauses.


EY 787 delivery schedule

Image

A350's - EY has previously accelerated deliveries only to reverse them later on

Image

https://leehamnews.com/2018/05/09/etiha ... ructuring/
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mig17
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed May 09, 2018 12:34 pm

I feel that in the end, it will be an Airbus versus Boeing thing ^^.
Meaning Etihad have overordered so much on the widebody front that one OEM can completly go.
The A330 & 77W are going to stay longer than expected. And when they will need replacement, Etihad may have to choose between A35K and 77X for the 77W. And between 787 & A359 for the A330.
And it will not only be a case of which aircraft is best for the job but also of financial cancelling / slowing deliveries, fleet commonality and political strategy.

Of course, like lots are saying in this topic, the can cancel 77X and slow incommings of A350 and 787 but even like that it is still to much.
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Blerg
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed May 09, 2018 4:44 pm

Obzerva wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Etihad seems to be growing once again but they seem to being more cautious this time around. A few weeks ago they increased BEG from 7 to 10 and then yesterday they added another 2 flights to make it 12. Baku got extra flights while Nairobi was upgauged from an A320 to an A330. I think Rome was also increased from A330 to B789.
To me it makes sense for them to keep on receiving smaller widebody aircraft as they are still way behind Emirates, Turkish Airlines and Qatar in terms of network and the number of weekly frequencies they offer.


I'm not sure BEG would be considered growth, when there was previously a daily EY plus a daily JU flight which is now gone.
Given that, it's now effectively gone from 14 flights to 10, the only difference is EY is operating all of the services, as opposed to half of the options being codeshare.


Well it's growth compared to what we had until now. JU left AUH because they needed the plane for European flights which is a shame because they increased their average load from some 20 passengers when the route started to some 110 when they terminated it.
 
NOVAIAD
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed May 09, 2018 5:40 pm

raylee67 wrote:
This is probably what I would do:

Only keep about 10 787-10 on order to replace A330-300 on some heavier routes and to allow mild expansion. Cancel 20 787-10 in total
Cancel about half of the A350 on order, i.e. keep about 30 A350 on order, mix of -900 and -1000, and use them to replace 777-300ER (19 in service now) and allow mild expansion
Cancel all 777-X



So, you would cancel the NexGen of an aircraft that has been the backbone of their long-haul fleet for many years and already have pilots who could go from one to the other with little to no retraining, but keep aircraft on order for a type they currently do not have in their fleet? It would be easier to defer any number of 787s than cancel them. Would likely be easier to cancel an order for aircraft currently not in the fleet. Having a LH fleet consisting of A380s, 777s/777X and 787s makes far more sense.
 
papatango
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed May 09, 2018 6:02 pm

Why don't they offer Delta a deal they can't refuse on the B777LRs they have in storage?
 
kevin5345179
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:13 pm

indeed 777X is the first one on the list

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-etih ... SKBN1J92FF
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:17 pm

kevin5345179 wrote:
indeed 777X is the first one on the list

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-etih ... SKBN1J92FF


Makes complete sense. If I were Boeing, I’d take the hit but tell them I’d want to see a one for one match of A350 cancellations before talking about anything with the 787.

Course, EY can do whatever they feel they need to.
-Dave


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Sooner787
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:52 pm

kevin5345179 wrote:
indeed 777X is the first one on the list

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-etih ... SKBN1J92FF


I'm sure Boeing would love to make a deal with BA to takeover EY's 777X slots.
Perhaps B can sweeten the deal with the cancellation payments EY will have to fork over.
 
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Polot
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:57 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
kevin5345179 wrote:
indeed 777X is the first one on the list

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-etih ... SKBN1J92FF


Makes complete sense. If I were Boeing, I’d take the hit but tell them I’d want to see a one for one match of A350 cancellations before talking about anything with the 787.

Course, EY can do whatever they feel they need to.

Boeing can’t dictate anything like that. EY’s 787 order no doubt has cancellation clauses, and EY is free to use them no matter if they cancel A350 too or not.

If EY 77X’s have cancellation penalties and Boeing agrees to waive them as some gesture of goodwill or something they are going to be less receptive over doing the same with the 787s even if EY is also cancelling A350s.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:16 pm

Polot wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
kevin5345179 wrote:
indeed 777X is the first one on the list

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-etih ... SKBN1J92FF


Makes complete sense. If I were Boeing, I’d take the hit but tell them I’d want to see a one for one match of A350 cancellations before talking about anything with the 787.

Course, EY can do whatever they feel they need to.

Boeing can’t dictate anything like that. EY’s 787 order no doubt has cancellation clauses, and EY is free to use them no matter if they cancel A350 too or not.

If EY 77X’s have cancellation penalties and Boeing agrees to waive them as some gesture of goodwill or something they are going to be less receptive over doing the same with the 787s even if EY is also cancelling A350s.

Boeing will work with EY. It depends on new 777X customers willing to accept launch slots. TK, ET, and BA are the only airlines mentioned. BA/IAG is becoming notorious for the discounts and contract terms they want. But hey, any port in a storm...

TK and ET smell blood in the water. They shall negotiate with vigor and might not achieve the price their business cases demand. Cest la vie. This is big business and not for emotions.

I do expect EY will pay some of the next 777X buyers' price. That is how Boeing will avoid triggering most favored clauses.

For 787s, Boeing will either get penalties or a differal. I expect a mix with some cancelations.

For A350s, Airbus is short of near term slots, so I expect their highest profit is to offer a differal and try to avoid cancelations. I except some cancelations, but I expect the reality to transfer to a more soft firm order to keep orders on the books.

I posted for years that bypassing the ME3 hubs was the way to defeat them. It is happening and the new IST will accelerate that.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
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MrBren
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:43 pm

777X will be the next thorn in the side of Boeing.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Polot wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Makes complete sense. If I were Boeing, I’d take the hit but tell them I’d want to see a one for one match of A350 cancellations before talking about anything with the 787.

Course, EY can do whatever they feel they need to.

Boeing can’t dictate anything like that. EY’s 787 order no doubt has cancellation clauses, and EY is free to use them no matter if they cancel A350 too or not.

If EY 77X’s have cancellation penalties and Boeing agrees to waive them as some gesture of goodwill or something they are going to be less receptive over doing the same with the 787s even if EY is also cancelling A350s.

Boeing will work with EY. It depends on new 777X customers willing to accept launch slots. TK, ET, and BA are the only airlines mentioned. BA/IAG is becoming notorious for the discounts and contract terms they want. But hey, any port in a storm...

TK and ET smell blood in the water. They shall negotiate with vigor and might not achieve the price their business cases demand. Cest la vie. This is big business and not for emotions.

I do expect EY will pay some of the next 777X buyers' price. That is how Boeing will avoid triggering most favored clauses.

For 787s, Boeing will either get penalties or a differal. I expect a mix with some cancelations.

For A350s, Airbus is short of near term slots, so I expect their highest profit is to offer a differal and try to avoid cancelations. I except some cancelations, but I expect the reality to transfer to a more soft firm order to keep orders on the books.

I posted for years that bypassing the ME3 hubs was the way to defeat them. It is happening and the new IST will accelerate that.

Lightsaber


Defeat them? And why? They are perfectly respectable airlines and I’d choose to fly them over any of the US3 any day of the week.
Thanks and best Regards
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Polot
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:03 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Polot wrote:
Boeing can’t dictate anything like that. EY’s 787 order no doubt has cancellation clauses, and EY is free to use them no matter if they cancel A350 too or not.

If EY 77X’s have cancellation penalties and Boeing agrees to waive them as some gesture of goodwill or something they are going to be less receptive over doing the same with the 787s even if EY is also cancelling A350s.

Boeing will work with EY. It depends on new 777X customers willing to accept launch slots. TK, ET, and BA are the only airlines mentioned. BA/IAG is becoming notorious for the discounts and contract terms they want. But hey, any port in a storm...

TK and ET smell blood in the water. They shall negotiate with vigor and might not achieve the price their business cases demand. Cest la vie. This is big business and not for emotions.

I do expect EY will pay some of the next 777X buyers' price. That is how Boeing will avoid triggering most favored clauses.

For 787s, Boeing will either get penalties or a differal. I expect a mix with some cancelations.

For A350s, Airbus is short of near term slots, so I expect their highest profit is to offer a differal and try to avoid cancelations. I except some cancelations, but I expect the reality to transfer to a more soft firm order to keep orders on the books.

I posted for years that bypassing the ME3 hubs was the way to defeat them. It is happening and the new IST will accelerate that.

Lightsaber


Defeat them? And why? They are perfectly respectable airlines and I’d choose to fly them over any of the US3 any day of the week.

Because airlines are in competition with each other for your money. Lightsaber was talking from a business point of view, not necessarily the passenger’s. People will pay a premium for nonstop over service. That is why bypassing the hubs is a sound strategy for winning buisness over the ME3.
Last edited by Polot on Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:04 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
...
Perhaps B can sweeten the deal with the cancellation payments EY will have to fork over.


If I recall Planesmart's comments correctly, EY may not pay any penalties.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:00 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
If I were Boeing, I’d take the hit but tell them I’d want to see a one for one match of A350 cancellations before talking about anything with the 787.


Makes sense, that would allow them to get rid of both orders, 777x and 787, offering a better and most consistent product. Airbus will be more than happy to offer A339 slots.
 
ap305
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:10 pm

I think it will be the 777x and part of the 359 order gone... Both manufacturers may be grateful for the slots.
Last edited by ap305 on Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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