BoeingGuy
Posts: 5078
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:25 pm

MrBren wrote:
777X will be the next thorn in the side of Boeing.


Right, that's because it's a substantial upgrade to the most successful twin aisle airplane ever built. That's why it will be a failure and a thorn in Boeing's side.

And by the way, it can have a common pilot pool with EY's 787s, thus minimizing training costs.

While the 787 and KC-46 had some unfortunate teething problems, both airplanes are outstanding and well loved by their customer(s). They too will be highly successful in service for many years.

Boeing had a couple of single aisle airplanes introduced in 1967 and 1982, respectively, that didn't sell well at first either. Look at what thorns they were too. ;)
 
Arion640
Posts: 1520
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Polot wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Makes complete sense. If I were Boeing, I’d take the hit but tell them I’d want to see a one for one match of A350 cancellations before talking about anything with the 787.

Course, EY can do whatever they feel they need to.

Boeing can’t dictate anything like that. EY’s 787 order no doubt has cancellation clauses, and EY is free to use them no matter if they cancel A350 too or not.

If EY 77X’s have cancellation penalties and Boeing agrees to waive them as some gesture of goodwill or something they are going to be less receptive over doing the same with the 787s even if EY is also cancelling A350s.

Boeing will work with EY. It depends on new 777X customers willing to accept launch slots. TK, ET, and BA are the only airlines mentioned. BA/IAG is becoming notorious for the discounts and contract terms they want. But hey, any port in a storm...

TK and ET smell blood in the water. They shall negotiate with vigor and might not achieve the price their business cases demand. Cest la vie. This is big business and not for emotions.

I do expect EY will pay some of the next 777X buyers' price. That is how Boeing will avoid triggering most favored clauses.

For 787s, Boeing will either get penalties or a differal. I expect a mix with some cancelations.

For A350s, Airbus is short of near term slots, so I expect their highest profit is to offer a differal and try to avoid cancelations. I except some cancelations, but I expect the reality to transfer to a more soft firm order to keep orders on the books.

I posted for years that bypassing the ME3 hubs was the way to defeat them. It is happening and the new IST will accelerate that.

Lightsaber


I think they've gone past the point of being able to defeat them. Unless airlines can offer cheaper fares in Economy for a direct flight, they will always have the edge. Qatar recently offered Cardiff-Bangkok-Cardiff for something like £380 return. BA can't offer that for an inferior product direct from LHR, on a worn out, paid off 777.

Emirates are running such a large operation and have so much seating capacity it is a case of stacking up the seats and selling them cheap and becoming massive people movers and achieving economies of scale. Unless you can beat those prices probably 70% of the time people will accept the stop and pay less.

IST is just going to be the next DXB/DOH, they certainly aren't beating the ME3, they are joining them.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

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Eyad89
Posts: 360
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:55 am

I think most of us have seen this coming, but the order is small so it wouldn’t make sense to reduce it. It’s either canceling the whole thing or simply deferring it IMO.

As for A350, MSN 290 is the first frame for EY. Its parts should be arriving soon. EY has to announce pretty soon what to do with that order.

BoeingGuy wrote:



Right, that's because it's a substantial upgrade to the most successful twin aisle airplane ever built. That's why it will be a failure and a thorn in Boeing's side.




That fact that 777 was a great success means nothing now for the 777x. It’s a completely different game now when 787/A350 are sticking around.

748 was a failure even though it was an upgrade of the queen of the skies. Its failure had to do with how great 777 was. Now, 787/A350 are doing the same to 777X.

I predict 777X would get a total of 400-450 orders eventually as a best case senario. A new engine option for 787/A350 would kill it IMO, as I see GE9X as the final engine for 777.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:29 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
MrBren wrote:
777X will be the next thorn in the side of Boeing.


Right, that's because it's a substantial upgrade to the most successful twin aisle airplane ever built. That's why it will be a failure and a thorn in Boeing's side.

And by the way, it can have a common pilot pool with EY's 787s, thus minimizing training costs.

While the 787 and KC-46 had some unfortunate teething problems, both airplanes are outstanding and well loved by their customer(s). They too will be highly successful in service for many years.

Boeing had a couple of single aisle airplanes introduced in 1967 and 1982, respectively, that didn't sell well at first either. Look at what thorns they were too. ;)



It’s so easy to look at everything through a straw to look at everything with such a small perspective in the big term 777 will be needed there’s a huge glut of widebodies on order right now. Smaller wide bodies seem to be the thing has they can fly farther now. The revamped 777X will see orders in the 2020’s
 
juliuswong
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:22 am

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:48 am

Eyad89 wrote:
I think most of us have seen this coming, but the order is small so it wouldn’t make sense to reduce it. It’s either canceling the whole thing or simply deferring it IMO.

As for A350, MSN 290 is the first frame for EY. Its parts should be arriving soon. EY has to announce pretty soon what to do with that order.

They might just let Airbus build them and not taking up the order, leaving white tails for Airbus to deal with. Pay penalty instead of operating the fleet at a loss.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
ap305
Posts: 1479
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2000 4:03 am

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:00 am

juliuswong wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
I think most of us have seen this coming, but the order is small so it wouldn’t make sense to reduce it. It’s either canceling the whole thing or simply deferring it IMO.

As for A350, MSN 290 is the first frame for EY. Its parts should be arriving soon. EY has to announce pretty soon what to do with that order.

They might just let Airbus build them and not taking up the order, leaving white tails for Airbus to deal with. Pay penalty instead of operating the fleet at a loss.


There are normally escalation clauses in the penalties once production starts so not as easy as you make it sound. The -900 on the other hand....
Racing, competing, is in my blood. It's part of me, it's part of my life; I've been doing it all my life. And it stands up before anything else- Ayrton Senna
 
Planesmart
Posts: 2863
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:18 am

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:45 am

ap305 wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
I think most of us have seen this coming, but the order is small so it wouldn’t make sense to reduce it. It’s either canceling the whole thing or simply deferring it IMO.

As for A350, MSN 290 is the first frame for EY. Its parts should be arriving soon. EY has to announce pretty soon what to do with that order.

They might just let Airbus build them and not taking up the order, leaving white tails for Airbus to deal with. Pay penalty instead of operating the fleet at a loss.


There are normally escalation clauses in the penalties once production starts so not as easy as you make it sound. The -900 on the other hand....

Escalation clauses exist in commercial aviation contracts. But they are not a straight line.

When A & B sell off plans, they have a dilemma. A firmer contract for buyer and seller, means firmer performance guarantees and penalties for non-compliance, with firmer delivery dates, matched by firmer penalties for deferrals, model hopping and cancellations.

Quite different for 'in production' models, with shorter delivery time frames, where firm is the name of the game.

The 777X was the last new model where Boeing accepted 'soft' contract terms ('soft' even by new model order standards), plus bargain basement pricing.

Boeing has been trying to make the orders less soft for the last 12-18 months, but it's difficult to do this when there is no real news or milestones, against a background of weak WB demand, and engine issues affecting all three OEM's (including GE with the 777X).

The finance and leasing industry views this aircraft as niche despite the 777 model number and folding wing tips, so very much in the same category as the A380. The latest EK A380 order has struggled to find an engine at a price (and on terms) acceptable to the customer, raises red flags to financiers about engine OEM's increasing power over owners, especially where there is a choice of one.

Based on delivery, 787's and A350's look safer. Is Boeing willing to trade firm order 787 cancellations in return for 777X order firming? Would cancelling 787's mean fewer A350 cancellations?

Could the 777X program at this late hour still be cancelled, replaced by new 787 versions with a different wing, producing an aircraft more mainstream and less costly to build? If Boeing haven't firmed 777X orders yet, it will never be cheaper to cancel than now. If 787 production costs are really as low as claimed, customers could have an almost as capable aircraft for similar or less money. And Boeing would make a profit sooner (the first 200 X's have reputedly sold at or below breakeven), and not need to be as actively involved in funding sales and leases.
 
axiom
Posts: 504
Joined: Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:15 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Taken altogether, it's a sobering picture for Boeing. Yet another program failure. At least they have the KC46. Oh wait, its late and over budget also, and will likely never make a dime of profit for Boeing. How did they fall so far so fast?


Boeing stock 1 Sep 2000: $64.000

Boeing stock 1 June 2017: $366.675

Enough with this fanboy drivel. :roll:
 
SteelChair
Posts: 295
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:25 pm

axiom wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Taken altogether, it's a sobering picture for Boeing. Yet another program failure. At least they have the KC46. Oh wait, its late and over budget also, and will likely never make a dime of profit for Boeing. How did they fall so far so fast?


Boeing stock 1 Sep 2000: $64.000

Boeing stock 1 June 2017: $366.675

Enough with this fanboy drivel. :roll:


Looks like a profit taking opportunity.....sell....SELL! haha.
 
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frigatebird
Posts: 1454
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:51 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
I think most of us have seen this coming, but the order is small so it wouldn’t make sense to reduce it. It’s either canceling the whole thing or simply deferring it IMO.

As for A350, MSN 290 is the first frame for EY. Its parts should be arriving soon. EY has to announce pretty soon what to do with that order.

BoeingGuy wrote:

Right, that's because it's a substantial upgrade to the most successful twin aisle airplane ever built. That's why it will be a failure and a thorn in Boeing's side.



That fact that 777 was a great success means nothing now for the 777x. It’s a completely different game now when 787/A350 are sticking around.

748 was a failure even though it was an upgrade of the queen of the skies. Its failure had to do with how great 777 was. Now, 787/A350 are doing the same to 777X.

I predict 777X would get a total of 400-450 orders eventually as a best case senario. A new engine option for 787/A350 would kill it IMO, as I see GE9X as the final engine for 777.


Have to agree with most of what you are saying. The analogy with the 747-8 is not totally warranted IMO, the 748 not only had the 77W as more efficient (smaller) alternative, but the A380 too. It filled an extremely small niche. The 777X has no competition from the A380, at least not the current version.

Your estimate of 400-450 orders in total could certainly happen, but I see it as worst case scenario. Lots of 77W still to be replaced, not all of these can be replaced by A35K. There will be more 777X orders when fuel prices rise, and I can't see new engines for the A350 before the end of the next decade. So my best case scenario for the 777X will be 600-650 orders. Not extremely successful, but there have been worse ;)

Back to EY, MSN 290 is an A350-1000, I think they will take delivery of that one, just like MSN 315, their second A35K. MSN 330 is their first A359, I suppose it's just possible to at least defer that one. If EY will build their new fleet around A32xNeo, 787-9/10 and A350-1000, at least their fleet should be pretty darn well efficient. Try to get rid of the rest and bite the bullit financially, and finally making sensible decisions by their top management, and EY may very well have a bright future.
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SVJ77W
Posts: 113
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:38 am

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:53 pm

Etihad in apparent review of Boeing 777X orders
The airline is a launch customer of the twin-engined jets

15:59 June 14, 2018

Dubai, Abu Dhabi: Etihad Airways is exploring options with Boeing to cancel or defer orders for 777X jets worth billions of dollars in a fresh sign of the carrier’s financial strains and potentially squeezing Boeing’s newest model, four sources familiar with the matter said.

Etihad, owned by Abu Dhabi, has been reviewing its fleet plans as part of a strategy overhaul launched after a nearly $2-billion (Dh7.34 billion) loss in 2016.

The airline’s management believes it no longer needs all of the 25 777X twin-engined jets and may be willing to incur penalties for cancellations rather than be saddled with future recurring losses stemming from overcapacity, the sources said.

Etihad and Boeing declined to comment.

https://m.gulfnews.com/business/aviatio ... -1.2236920
 
JAAlbert
Posts: 1801
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:43 pm

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:32 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Egerton wrote:
I wonder if Etihad might sensibly sell their A380's to IAG?

If BA could take all 10, that would indeed be a solution. I wouldn't think keeping less than 10 makes sense for EY, and
there wouldn't seem to be any other takers. It'd be a big downgauge to the 77W also, but I don't know how full
the A388s go out anyways.


Per other comments in other threads, the cost of reconfiguring the 380 to another carrier's specifications is expensive - I would imagine doubly so with Etihad's first class and beyond first class products.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 8086
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:46 pm

Planesmart wrote:
Could the 777X program at this late hour still be cancelled, replaced by new 787 versions with a different wing, producing an aircraft more mainstream and less costly to build? If Boeing haven't firmed 777X orders yet, it will never be cheaper to cancel than now. If 787 production costs are really as low as claimed, customers could have an almost as capable aircraft for similar or less money. And Boeing would make a profit sooner (the first 200 X's have reputedly sold at or below breakeven), and not need to be as actively involved in funding sales and leases.


contrasted with:

frigatebird wrote:
Your estimate of 400-450 orders in total could certainly happen, but I see it as worst case scenario. Lots of 77W still to be replaced, not all of these can be replaced by A35K. There will be more 777X orders when fuel prices rise, and I can't see new engines for the A350 before the end of the next decade. So my best case scenario for the 777X will be 600-650 orders. Not extremely successful, but there have been worse ;)


Interesting juxtaposition of ideas about the program (the two comments above not replying to one another). Sort of reminiscent of the A330neo debate taking place. I'm not an optimist with the 777X program but I also struggle to see them shutting it down now unless EK walks.
-Dave
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2390
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:02 pm

EY only have a small 388 fleet and its generally used on kangaroo or NYC routes and generally goes out close to full. I doubt the 388 is a problem there. More likely the smaller destinations.
 
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Jayafe
Posts: 1203
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:09 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
EY only have a small 388 fleet and its generally used on kangaroo or NYC routes and generally goes out close to full. I doubt the 388 is a problem there. More likely the smaller destinations.


Also a Star in the LHR routes (packed). But hey this is a.net, everything is A380's fault ;)

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