jplatts
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Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 2:04 pm

Of the 6 U.S.-based commercial passenger airlines that operate 737 NG aircraft, AS, AA, WN, and UA have all ordered 737 MAX planes, and AA and WN are also operating 737 MAX planes in their fleets. DL and SY both operate Boeing 737-700 and Boeing 737-800 planes, but neither airline has yet ordered any 737 MAX planes.

While DL does have A321neo and CS100 planes on order, but DL hasn't yet ordered any 737 MAX or A320neo planes. I could see DL possibly ordering 737 MAX 8 planes since DL has more 737-800 planes than A320ceo planes, since DL was a Boeing customer prior to the DL-NW merger, since DL still has Boeing 737-900ER airplanes on order, and since DL has older planes that need to be replaced in its fleet.

SY would likely order 737 MAX 8 airplanes if it plans on ordering new airplanes since SY currently only operates 737-700 and 737-800 planes. SY is the only remaining commercial passenger airline other than WN in the U.S. that operates only Boeing 737 planes.

Boeing still has opportunities to sell new 737 MAX planes to DL and SY, as neither has yet ordered any 737 MAX planes from Boeing. Will DL or SY be ordering any 737 MAX planes from Boeing soon?
 
deltal1011man
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 2:06 pm

As soon as CFM/GE is willing to make a MRO deal with TechOps, Delta will order the 73M.

If they continue to be stubborn and insist that they do the work (and Pratt is willing hand over the revenue from the GTF) I'd expect more 320N orders
 
Sooner787
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 2:11 pm

I suspect Delta's narrow body future revolves around the A32X NEOs as well as the C Series ( A210 A230 )
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 2:12 pm

DL will probably wait to see how their large CS order and options works out before they commit to any additional (if any) 737 orders.
SY, being a tiny, lease only operator, is more likely to lease NG frames displaced from operators (probably those updating to MAX). Their financial position and ownership makes new purchases very unlikely.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 2:20 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I suspect Delta's narrow body future revolves around the A32X NEOs as well as the C Series ( A210 A230 )


I don't see 500 A32X and C-Series in the fleet with 130 739s (and 77 738s that they will probably start retiring within seven years). I believe there will be more Boeing/Airbus parity than that. Max10s could replace the domestic 752s very nicely, 100 frames with an average age of 21.5 years today, and the oldest 28.0 years this month.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 2:24 pm

I see Delta transitioning to an all-Airbus fleet down the line, making the chances that they order the MAX nearly none. The remaining 739s in order may be their last Boeing order. I see the A319 being replaced by the CS300.

Within 10 years, this is what the fleet matrix (mainline) could look like:

BCS1
BCS3
B739
A321ceo
A321neo
A321LR
A332 (233t)
A333 (233t)
A333 (242t)
A359
Something in MOM to slot between the A21N and A332

The only chance for Boeing would be MOM, with the CSeries dispute causing major issues.
 
deltal1011man
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 2:45 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see Delta transitioning to an all-Airbus fleet down the line, making the chances that they order the MAX nearly none. The remaining 739s in order may be their last Boeing order. I see the A319 being replaced by the CS300.

Within 10 years, this is what the fleet matrix (mainline) could look like:

BCS1
BCS3
B739
A321ceo
A321neo
A321LR
A332 (233t)
A333 (233t)
A333 (242t)
A359
Something in MOM to slot between the A21N and A332

The only chance for Boeing would be MOM, with the CSeries dispute causing major issues.

So the airline that prides it self on operating planes for 25-30 years and having the right plane for the right route (and one of the largest MROs in the world and the largest in North America) is going to completely change because......why?
Short of a drastic management change the above has as much of a chance to happen as me growing wings and flying.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I suspect Delta's narrow body future revolves around the A32X NEOs as well as the C Series ( A210 A230 )


I don't see 500 A32X and C-Series in the fleet with 130 739s (and 77 738s that they will probably start retiring within seven years). I believe there will be more Boeing/Airbus parity than that. Max10s could replace the domestic 752s very nicely, 100 frames with an average age of 21.5 years today, and the oldest 28.0 years this month.

Exactly. Delta owns aircraft from all four OEMs and won't be changing anytime soon. The fleet is simply too large to rely on just the A320 to replace the large narrow bodies.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 4:06 pm

I asked an SY insider about the MAX, he said not for a while If at all. They are adding 5 737-800 from THY, this summer, with 2 737-800 from AM this fall. The 737-700 are going to be replaced with more 737-800's. SY returned 2 737-700 this past April. IIRC they went to Ethiopian Airlines. I noticed on a pilot website that SY wants to have 55 737-800 by 2025?? I believe they will add NG's that will be available at a lower price while the other airlines seek the MAX. The unanswered question is will SY still use HV 737 for the winter 2018/19??
I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 4:20 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see Delta transitioning to an all-Airbus fleet down the line, making the chances that they order the MAX nearly none. The remaining 739s in order may be their last Boeing order. I see the A319 being replaced by the CS300.

Within 10 years, this is what the fleet matrix (mainline) could look like:

BCS1
BCS3
B739
A321ceo
A321neo
A321LR
A332 (233t)
A333 (233t)
A333 (242t)
A359
Something in MOM to slot between the A21N and A332

The only chance for Boeing would be MOM, with the CSeries dispute causing major issues.

So the airline that prides it self on operating planes for 25-30 years and having the right plane for the right route (and one of the largest MROs in the world and the largest in North America) is going to completely change because......why?
Short of a drastic management change the above has as much of a chance to happen as me growing wings and flying.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I suspect Delta's narrow body future revolves around the A32X NEOs as well as the C Series ( A210 A230 )


I don't see 500 A32X and C-Series in the fleet with 130 739s (and 77 738s that they will probably start retiring within seven years). I believe there will be more Boeing/Airbus parity than that. Max10s could replace the domestic 752s very nicely, 100 frames with an average age of 21.5 years today, and the oldest 28.0 years this month.

Exactly. Delta owns aircraft from all four OEMs and won't be changing anytime soon. The fleet is simply too large to rely on just the A320 to replace the large narrow bodies.


The GE 763s will be 28-30 by them and the 764s 27. The 717s are all leased and the other DC9 variants will be gone or over 30. The ex-TW 752s will also be 30 and the 753s about 27. Replacements for all will be in the pipeline by then.
 
Alias1024
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 4:22 pm

jplatts wrote:
While DL does have A321neo and CS100 planes on order, but DL hasn't yet ordered any 737 MAX or A320neo planes. I could see DL possibly ordering 737 MAX 8 planes since DL has more 737-800 planes than A320ceo planes, since DL was a Boeing customer prior to the DL-NW merger, since DL still has Boeing 737-900ER airplanes on order, and since DL has older planes that need to be replaced in its fleet.


As others have said, P&Ws willingness to deal on overhaul work gives an economic boost to the NEO and CS. I think the best chance would be for replacement of the 738 fleet, but that is still several years away. The current orders of 739, 321, and 321neo look like they are headed for replacing the M88, M90, and 320 (the NW was a very early customer of the A320-200 and they are getting near retirement age).

Delta has a lot of options for the A321 that could be used for 738 replacement, but Boeing will almost certainly get a chance to try and win the 738 replacement with the MAX. If Boeing wins that order, I could see DL working with Airbus to shift some of the options for 321s into orders for the A350 to replace the 777 fleet. The 777s will be ready to head to the desert around that time. Unless those 321 options are already earmarked for 757 replacement.

Even without the MAX, I don't think the 739s are the last Boeing aircraft that DL will order for a long time. The MOM makes too much sense as a trans-Atlantic hauler from JFK and ATL, and possibly a few Asia routes from SEA. Not every 763 route needs to up gauge all the way to the A330neo.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
727LOVER
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 4:31 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see Delta transitioning to an all-Airbus fleet down the line, making the chances that they order the MAX nearly none. The remaining 739s in order may be their last Boeing order. I see the A319 being replaced by the CS300.

Within 10 years, this is what the fleet matrix (mainline) could look like:

BCS1
BCS3
B739
A321ceo
A321neo
A321LR
A332 (233t)
A333 (233t)
A333 (242t)
A359
Something in MOM to slot between the A21N and A332

The only chance for Boeing would be MOM, with the CSeries dispute causing major issues.

So the airline that prides it self on operating planes for 25-30 years and having the right plane for the right route (and one of the largest MROs in the world and the largest in North America) is going to completely change because......why?
Short of a drastic management change the above has as much of a chance to happen as me growing wings and flying.

MIflyer12 wrote:

I don't see 500 A32X and C-Series in the fleet with 130 739s (and 77 738s that they will probably start retiring within seven years). I believe there will be more Boeing/Airbus parity than that. Max10s could replace the domestic 752s very nicely, 100 frames with an average age of 21.5 years today, and the oldest 28.0 years this month.

Exactly. Delta owns aircraft from all four OEMs and won't be changing anytime soon. The fleet is simply too large to rely on just the A320 to replace the large narrow bodies.


The GE 763s will be 28-30 by them and the 764s 27. The 717s are all leased and the other DC9 variants will be gone or over 30. The ex-TW 752s will also be 30 and the 753s about 27. Replacements for all will be in the pipeline by then.



73G? 738?
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 4:34 pm

727LOVER wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
So the airline that prides it self on operating planes for 25-30 years and having the right plane for the right route (and one of the largest MROs in the world and the largest in North America) is going to completely change because......why?
Short of a drastic management change the above has as much of a chance to happen as me growing wings and flying.


Exactly. Delta owns aircraft from all four OEMs and won't be changing anytime soon. The fleet is simply too large to rely on just the A320 to replace the large narrow bodies.


The GE 763s will be 28-30 by them and the 764s 27. The 717s are all leased and the other DC9 variants will be gone or over 30. The ex-TW 752s will also be 30 and the 753s about 27. Replacements for all will be in the pipeline by then.



73G? 738?


The 73Gs are a tiny subfleet that the BCS3 could supplant and the 738s will also be 27 and more likely replaced in duty by 739s or 321s. The 320s should be long gone and the 319s also replaced by the BCS3.
 
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O530CarrisPT
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 4:40 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
While DL does have A321neo and CS100 planes on order, but DL hasn't yet ordered any 737 MAX or A320neo planes. I could see DL possibly ordering 737 MAX 8 planes since DL has more 737-800 planes than A320ceo planes, since DL was a Boeing customer prior to the DL-NW merger, since DL still has Boeing 737-900ER airplanes on order, and since DL has older planes that need to be replaced in its fleet.


Even without the MAX, I don't think the 739s are the last Boeing aircraft that DL will order for a long time. The MOM makes too much sense as a trans-Atlantic hauler from JFK and ATL, and possibly a few Asia routes from SEA. Not every 763 route needs to up gauge all the way to the A330neo.


Maybe Delta is likely to wait for the MOM/NMA from Boeing to replace their 757-200/757-300/767-300ER in the fleet (in TATL flights and the SEA-Asia segments). But I don't think that Delta may order the Boeing 737 MAX 8. Since they ordered the Airbus A321neo, the Airbus A320neo may likely be the most rational choice to replace both the Boeing 737-800s and the Airbus A320 (continuing the streamlining of the fleet). Unless Boeing does something to get a order for the 737 MAX 8 altogether with the potential NMA...
The Airbus A319s will certainly be replaced by the Bombardier CS300. That's absolutely certain.
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. - Martin Luther King Jr. (1929-1968)
 
deltal1011man
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 5:00 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see Delta transitioning to an all-Airbus fleet down the line, making the chances that they order the MAX nearly none. The remaining 739s in order may be their last Boeing order. I see the A319 being replaced by the CS300.

Within 10 years, this is what the fleet matrix (mainline) could look like:

BCS1
BCS3
B739
A321ceo
A321neo
A321LR
A332 (233t)
A333 (233t)
A333 (242t)
A359
Something in MOM to slot between the A21N and A332

The only chance for Boeing would be MOM, with the CSeries dispute causing major issues.

So the airline that prides it self on operating planes for 25-30 years and having the right plane for the right route (and one of the largest MROs in the world and the largest in North America) is going to completely change because......why?
Short of a drastic management change the above has as much of a chance to happen as me growing wings and flying.

MIflyer12 wrote:

I don't see 500 A32X and C-Series in the fleet with 130 739s (and 77 738s that they will probably start retiring within seven years). I believe there will be more Boeing/Airbus parity than that. Max10s could replace the domestic 752s very nicely, 100 frames with an average age of 21.5 years today, and the oldest 28.0 years this month.

Exactly. Delta owns aircraft from all four OEMs and won't be changing anytime soon. The fleet is simply too large to rely on just the A320 to replace the large narrow bodies.


The GE 763s will be 28-30 by them and the 764s 27. The 717s are all leased and the other DC9 variants will be gone or over 30. The ex-TW 752s will also be 30 and the 753s about 27. Replacements for all will be in the pipeline by then.

And again, Delta is just going to walk away from the Boeing MRO game because......? They will turn down potential better deals from Boeing why.......?

And that is ignoring the fact Airbus has nothing the can replace the 767 and only a simi-757 replacement.


The 73M will be in Delta's fleet. The 787 will be in Delta's fleet. Boeing and GE aren't going to let one of its long time customers go straight Pratt/Rolls/Airbus. That is simply Airbus fanboy fantasy land. Right there next to United never taking the A350
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 5:46 pm

Eventually, DL’s fleet is far too large to be a single OEM airline.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Tue May 15, 2018 6:08 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see Delta transitioning to an all-Airbus fleet down the line, making the chances that they order the MAX nearly none. The remaining 739s in order may be their last Boeing order. I see the A319 being replaced by the CS300.

Within 10 years, this is what the fleet matrix (mainline) could look like:

BCS1
BCS3
B739
A321ceo
A321neo
A321LR
A332 (233t)
A333 (233t)
A333 (242t)
A359
Something in MOM to slot between the A21N and A332

The only chance for Boeing would be MOM, with the CSeries dispute causing major issues.


I am not so sure. No Airline (bar the low cost giants) will have a mainline fleet limited to one manufacturer.

There is nothing to suggest Delta will not order Boeing aircraft, including narrowbodies, further down the line.
 
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O530CarrisPT
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 8:14 am

deltal1011man wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
So the airline that prides it self on operating planes for 25-30 years and having the right plane for the right route (and one of the largest MROs in the world and the largest in North America) is going to completely change because......why?
Short of a drastic management change the above has as much of a chance to happen as me growing wings and flying.


Exactly. Delta owns aircraft from all four OEMs and won't be changing anytime soon. The fleet is simply too large to rely on just the A320 to replace the large narrow bodies.


The GE 763s will be 28-30 by them and the 764s 27. The 717s are all leased and the other DC9 variants will be gone or over 30. The ex-TW 752s will also be 30 and the 753s about 27. Replacements for all will be in the pipeline by then.

And again, Delta is just going to walk away from the Boeing MRO game because......? They will turn down potential better deals from Boeing why.......?


The 73M will be in Delta's fleet. The 787 will be in Delta's fleet. Boeing and GE aren't going to let one of its long time customers go straight Pratt/Rolls/Airbus. That is simply Airbus fanboy fantasy land. Right there next to United never taking the A350


I just don't see the Boeing 787 at Delta fleet in the current strategy.
They already have the Airbus A330-900neo in order, so the most rational approach (in questions of fleet commonality) is to order the A330-800neo to replace their older Boeing 767-400s. Unless Boeing is able to get a order for the 787s from them to replace a chunk of their 767s. But otherwise, Boeing may only have the NMA (to replace the 757s and most of the 767s) and the 737 MAX 8 (to replace thier 737-800s) as their chances to remain with a foot in Delta's fleet (and there's indeed the fact that Boeing's dispute with Bombardier caused even more damage to the relationship of Boeing with Delta).
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. - Martin Luther King Jr. (1929-1968)
 
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keesje
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 8:44 am

I think DL and the big 3 in the US will have a preference to have fleet from all 4 big OE's. It guarantees longer term buying power and the opportunity to right size across all segments.

Looking back, Boeing's BBD/Delta trade case trying to sail on protectionists sentiments in Washington was an error. Thrust and partnership between Boeing & Delta were damaged.

But longer term business sense will hopefully prevail. Regardless of how the 797 will exactly look like, Delta will have a place for it in their domestic and regional networks. For DL the 737-8 seems to make sense. Maybe it can be combiened with a 797 launch contract.

Transavia is successful at this stage and a dedicated 737 customer. They have been succesfull sharing aircraft with SY.

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ehaase
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 12:01 pm

I could see Delta replacing 737-800's in about 10 years with either the 737-8 or a combination of 321 and CS300.
 
Samrnpage
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 1:42 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see Delta transitioning to an all-Airbus fleet down the line, making the chances that they order the MAX nearly none. The remaining 739s in order may be their last Boeing order. I see the A319 being replaced by the CS300.

Within 10 years, this is what the fleet matrix (mainline) could look like:

BCS1
BCS3
B739
A321ceo
A321neo
A321LR
A332 (233t)
A333 (233t)
A333 (242t)
A359
Something in MOM to slot between the A21N and A332



The only chance for Boeing would be MOM, with the CSeries dispute causing major issues.



The biggest issue here is they would lose all bargaining power with Airbus - a massive reason these big airlines tend to have both 737 and A320 is to get the best deals with the "if you dont do me a good deal im off to 737" and vise versa.

Personally I think Delta will get the Max 10 to supplement the A321s
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 3:46 pm

ehaase wrote:
I could see Delta replacing 737-800's in about 10 years with either the 737-8 or a combination of 321 and CS300.


Southwest was the launch customer for the 737NG. Its first deliveries came in Dec. 1997. It's going to start retirements in 2022.

AA's oldest 738s date from 2/1999. It's going to start retirements within two years. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -two-years

Delta's oldest 738s date from 10/1998. You think they're going to wait ten years before starting to retire some? I don't.

Delta's fleet composition hinted at in the 12/2017 Investor Day presentation shows the count of 'medium' narrowbodies shrinking rapidly in favor of large narrowbodies by 2023. It's a decline in seat count in that vague category of about 55%. Surely all of the MD-88s will be gone. Maybe most/all of the MD-90s will be gone. Some more A320s will be retired. If WN and AA are retiring a bunch, ask about the longevity of early NGs.

There's a big gap in seat count between a 2-class (and Comfort+) CS300 (none of which are on order by DL) and 739/321/321Neo.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 3:59 pm

They will bring back the NW DC9-50 instead :stirthepot: :duck:
 
Elementalism
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 4:22 pm

Delta is an interesting company in how they approach their fleet. I would not be surprised at all of they buy used low time 737-700 and 800s to replace old NGs in their fleet. I do not see them going all airbus. It really doesnt make sense from a bargaining perspective nor from a fleet utilization standpoint. And they have no history of doing it. So why start now with so many good options out there?
 
Elementalism
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 4:22 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
They will bring back the NW DC9-50 instead :stirthepot: :duck:


Which if memory serves correct were acquired from the merger with Republic airlines.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 4:33 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Delta is an interesting company in how they approach their fleet. I would not be surprised at all of they buy used low time 737-700 and 800s to replace old NGs in their fleet. I do not see them going all airbus. It really doesnt make sense from a bargaining perspective nor from a fleet utilization standpoint. And they have no history of doing it. So why start now with so many good options out there?

You do not have to operate the product of the competition, the vendor just needs to believe that you would. At the moment I am sceptical of any medium to long term prediction in the industry due to the massive political uncertainty. There are so many things that could influence such decisions, that any prediction is just guessing. Under normal conditions, I would be surprised if DL would not order from Boeing in the future. But normal conditions are not to be expected.
 
burnsie28
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 5:23 pm

Given that the MAX lost out to the A321NEO in the last DL round, I wouldn't expect it.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 5:37 pm

Delta will never be a single-OEM airline. There is too much money in forcing the OEMs into genuine competition.

I think the MAX 8 has a shot in the next narrowbody order, depending on how much Delta wants to grow its average aircraft size. If it decides to order all large narrowbodies again, I think the A321neo starts with a significant advantage over the MAX 10, but if it needs some midsize narrowbodies, the MAX 8 is at least as attractive as the A320neo.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 5:55 pm

As has been said many times, for a fleet the size of DL, having all the OEM's represented provides great ability to very precisely "right size" routes, maintain plausible price pressure in OEM negotiation, and forms the basis for a full range TechOps operation that is very profitable.

I also think, considering the number of pilots required to operate such large fleets that pilot recruitment actually becomes easier and re-training required less often than may be required of even single-fleet, but smaller carriers. Just my speculation.

I guess its good to be big. (corporately speaking)
 
deltal1011man
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 9:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ehaase wrote:
I could see Delta replacing 737-800's in about 10 years with either the 737-8 or a combination of 321 and CS300.


Southwest was the launch customer for the 737NG. Its first deliveries came in Dec. 1997. It's going to start retirements in 2022.

AA's oldest 738s date from 2/1999. It's going to start retirements within two years. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -two-years

Delta's oldest 738s date from 10/1998. You think they're going to wait ten years before starting to retire some? I don't.

Delta's fleet composition hinted at in the 12/2017 Investor Day presentation shows the count of 'medium' narrowbodies shrinking rapidly in favor of large narrowbodies by 2023. It's a decline in seat count in that vague category of about 55%. Surely all of the MD-88s will be gone. Maybe most/all of the MD-90s will be gone. Some more A320s will be retired. If WN and AA are retiring a bunch, ask about the longevity of early NGs.

There's a big gap in seat count between a 2-class (and Comfort+) CS300 (none of which are on order by DL) and 739/321/321Neo.

Southwest isn't like Delta. Not apples to apples

American is parking 737NGs just to do it. Parker is stuck in 1999
Delta management is basically the complete opposite. The 738s will go to ~30 years old.

O530CarrisPT wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:

The GE 763s will be 28-30 by them and the 764s 27. The 717s are all leased and the other DC9 variants will be gone or over 30. The ex-TW 752s will also be 30 and the 753s about 27. Replacements for all will be in the pipeline by then.

And again, Delta is just going to walk away from the Boeing MRO game because......? They will turn down potential better deals from Boeing why.......?


The 73M will be in Delta's fleet. The 787 will be in Delta's fleet. Boeing and GE aren't going to let one of its long time customers go straight Pratt/Rolls/Airbus. That is simply Airbus fanboy fantasy land. Right there next to United never taking the A350


I just don't see the Boeing 787 at Delta fleet in the current strategy.
They already have the Airbus A330-900neo in order, so the most rational approach (in questions of fleet commonality) is to order the A330-800neo to replace their older Boeing 767-400s. Unless Boeing is able to get a order for the 787s from them to replace a chunk of their 767s. But otherwise, Boeing may only have the NMA (to replace the 757s and most of the 767s) and the 737 MAX 8 (to replace thier 737-800s) as their chances to remain with a foot in Delta's fleet (and there's indeed the fact that Boeing's dispute with Bombardier caused even more damage to the relationship of Boeing with Delta).

Delta's going to order a plane no one wants or is showing interest in? That also goes completely against what Delta does. (At least new)

It makes finding cheap parts (and airplanes to buy for parts) a struggle later


My money is on Boeing offering a great deal on 788s to tide Delta (and American/United) over to the MOM
 
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O530CarrisPT
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 10:22 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
Delta's going to order a plane no one wants or is showing interest in? That also goes completely against what Delta does. (At least new)

It makes finding cheap parts (and airplanes to buy for parts) a struggle later


My money is on Boeing offering a great deal on 788s to tide Delta (and American/United) over to the MOM


You must understand that the relationship between Delta and Boeing is not very good. That's why I'd rather see a great deal happening on the Boeing 737 MAX 8 (rather than on the 787-8) to make Delta going for the NMA. And the Airbus A330-800neo has 99% commonality with the larger A330-900neo. So, no big deal in finding spare parts for the airplane.
However, if Boeing can offer a good deal with Delta on 787-8s (at a very good price), good for them and for Delta, because - one way or other - they may have here a replacement for part of the 767 fleet and the Airbus A330-200.
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. - Martin Luther King Jr. (1929-1968)
 
777Mech
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 10:39 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
As soon as CFM/GE is willing to make a MRO deal with TechOps, Delta will order the 73M.

If they continue to be stubborn and insist that they do the work (and Pratt is willing hand over the revenue from the GTF) I'd expect more 320N orders


^^This. You won't see a MAX aircraft in the DL livery until CFM let's DL overhaul the LEAP.

In the off chance that DL goes all Airbus, what makes this forum think that Airbus would eventually screw over one of their largest customers and not continue to offer deals on airplanes?
 
flyabr
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 10:59 pm

After the recent NB campaign result, I can't see the MAX ever being ordered, perhaps the next gen Boeing NB, but not this one. MOM is a distinct possibility, but at this point am not sure if that's gonna be a NB/WB or purely paper airplane.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Will DL or SY order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft?

Wed May 16, 2018 11:25 pm

777Mech wrote:
In the off chance that DL goes all Airbus, what makes this forum think that Airbus would eventually screw over one of their largest customers and not continue to offer deals on airplanes?


OEMs aren't charities. They adjust the deal offered according to how much leverage they have, with the goal of getting the highest price that will still induce the customer to sign. No one is saying Airbus would "screw over" an all-Airbus Delta, but having an all-Airbus fleet would definitely increase the cost to Delta of bring a Boeing (or other OEM) product on property. Airbus analysts will know that, and adjust prices upward accordingly.

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