ChristopherS
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Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 4:54 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... argo-surge

Am I wrong in doubting the claim that operators "rushing to snap up the aging jumbo jets?" Sure, there's been growth in cargo activity overall, but the boneyard 747s don't seem to be moving at all, it's almost only the 767s that are flying off the shelves to cargo operators. Most cargolines don't have the necessity of the sheer size of a 744, along with the time, money, and/or patience to deal with the gas-guzzling and wear of the 2-3 decade old birds.
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B757Forever
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 5:09 pm

I think he is referring to factory-built freighters in the article. I haven't seen any evidence that there is a demand to perform P2F on the pax versions.
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diverdave
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 6:06 pm

B757Forever wrote:
I think he is referring to factory-built freighters in the article. I haven't seen any evidence that there is a demand to perform P2F on the pax versions.


The article also says towards the end that Boeing no longer performs a 747-400 passenger to cargo conversion. :(
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 6:09 pm

diverdave wrote:
B757Forever wrote:
I think he is referring to factory-built freighters in the article. I haven't seen any evidence that there is a demand to perform P2F on the pax versions.


The article also says towards the end that Boeing no longer performs a 747-400 passenger to cargo conversion. :(


Indeed. Bedek did the last 2 last year (which were combi to full cargo conversions for Asiana). I'd wager those two were the final 747 P2F conversions we'll see.
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ER757
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 6:48 pm

ChristopherS wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-16/boeing-747s-given-up-for-dead-find-new-life-in-air-cargo-surge

Am I wrong in doubting the claim that operators "rushing to snap up the aging jumbo jets?" Sure, there's been growth in cargo activity overall, but the boneyard 747s don't seem to be moving at all, it's almost only the 767s that are flying off the shelves to cargo operators. Most cargolines don't have the necessity of the sheer size of a 744, along with the time, money, and/or patience to deal with the gas-guzzling and wear of the 2-3 decade old birds.

My take on the "rushing to snap up" comment in the article refers to the currently airworthy -F models, not old pax versions. The article states there are not many 744-F's in flight-ready condition sitting in storage and I'd tend to agree with that
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 7:11 pm

ER757 wrote:
ChristopherS wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-16/boeing-747s-given-up-for-dead-find-new-life-in-air-cargo-surge

Am I wrong in doubting the claim that operators "rushing to snap up the aging jumbo jets?" Sure, there's been growth in cargo activity overall, but the boneyard 747s don't seem to be moving at all, it's almost only the 767s that are flying off the shelves to cargo operators. Most cargolines don't have the necessity of the sheer size of a 744, along with the time, money, and/or patience to deal with the gas-guzzling and wear of the 2-3 decade old birds.

My take on the "rushing to snap up" comment in the article refers to the currently airworthy -F models, not old pax versions. The article states there are not many 744-F's in flight-ready condition sitting in storage and I'd tend to agree with that

I would agree with that. I would argue freight rates were too low for too long. So... 777F, 748F, A330F, or accept some freight goes Asia to Europe by rail.

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CX747
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 9:22 pm

ChristopherS wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-16/boeing-747s-given-up-for-dead-find-new-life-in-air-cargo-surge

Am I wrong in doubting the claim that operators "rushing to snap up the aging jumbo jets?" Sure, there's been growth in cargo activity overall, but the boneyard 747s don't seem to be moving at all, it's almost only the 767s that are flying off the shelves to cargo operators. Most cargolines don't have the necessity of the sheer size of a 744, along with the time, money, and/or patience to deal with the gas-guzzling and wear of the 2-3 decade old birds.


The article states that operators actually do have the time, money and patience when it comes to used 747-400Fs. The market for 747-400Fs is desribed as extremely tight, with almost all airworthy aircraft in service. It goes so far as to say that expensive D Checks are being completed on -400Fs that have sat in storage but are once again needed. Normally that means at least 5-7 years of operation. One of the reasons the used -400F market is so tight is due to -8F production being sold out until the early 2020s.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
CX747
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 10:59 pm

Does anyone have the tail numbers of the six 747-400Fs Atlas has snapped up recently? If they keep pushing off buying 747-8Fs, other people are going to continue to beat them to delivery slots.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
starrion
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 11:15 pm

What do they mean sold out? As in Boeing is going to stick to the .5 per month, even if someone placed a large order? That doesn't make sense.
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wjcandee
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 11:34 pm

diverdave wrote:
B757Forever wrote:
I think he is referring to factory-built freighters in the article. I haven't seen any evidence that there is a demand to perform P2F on the pax versions.


The article also says towards the end that Boeing no longer performs a 747-400 passenger to cargo conversion. :(


Which ignores the fact that Bedek and others could still do it, for the right price.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Wed May 16, 2018 11:51 pm

Like anything else, this is a big-picture overview based on a few quotes. Nothing is "snapped up". As the global economy heats up and more lift is needed, cargo operators have to look at what capital investments are appropriate to meet demand, and at what cost. It all depends on a forecast of demand, which is usually wrong.

So what capital investment do I want to make? How much is the business likely to grow, and for how long? If I think that I can keep that asset in service for 20 years at a reasonable utilization rate, I'm buying new, no question about it, even if that means it's a longer time before that lift can be put into service. If I think that I need to service a peak demand that will drop off in 10 years, I might look at buying a cheap good pax frame with modern engines and a fair bit of time left on it, and putting the $30 million or so into converting it. If I think I need lift right-freaking-now, but it may be intermittant, and I don't need the highest degree of reliability, I take an already-converted frame out of the desert and spend $3 million on D-checking it. Ideally, I have a fleet that is a mix of these. If I have an older -F that I am flying the crap out of that is approaching a heavy check, I could buy new, take the tax writeoff and reliability and maintenance expense benefits of a new frame, and shift the older aircraft into use for peak demand, and not feel bad about parking when the cycle changes. FedEx and UPS have fleets like this, as did World Airways. Some fairly-new-build, some solid used, and, at World, one DC10 that was straight PBTH (expensive when in use, but free when it wasn't). A fleet mix like this allows you to respond to the market in a fairly-flexible way.

Size is also an issue. Does the increase in demand require a 747? Could smaller aircraft, or aircraft with less range, get the job done? FedEx's 777s are great for flying nonstop transpacific flights designed to get things delivered in the shortest possible time. But most airfreight doesn't need that. Maybe a stop at ANC and again somewhere else is fine given the time demand of the freight. How much faster than ocean-travel does the customer need? How much of a discount over nonstop would make them take, say, a 3-day service? All of this factors into the ideal fleet mix, segmenting the market.

There was a time not too long ago where belly space was good enough to handle a big percentage of the volume, and people cut back the dedicated freighter service. Now the market is shifting upwards, and the real game is whether it is worth investing a lot of money to get that marginal business, or just to leave it unserved, or to serve it as best as one can at a lower capital investment.
 
CX747
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Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

Thu May 17, 2018 1:34 pm

Do we know how many 747-400Fs are currently available? As the article was stating, factory built 400Fs are finite in numbers. Once you "run" out of those, you are looking at either a 400BCF or waiting at least 3-4 years for a brand new 8F.

The tightness in the second hand market for both 767s and 747s shows the uptick in cargo requirements from just a few years ago.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower

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