NZ321
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Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:01 pm

So, who will be next? 797 is a way off by all accounts. Neo is by all accounts performing well.

We have

DL - 25
D7 - 66
TP - 10
GA -14
IZ - 2
IR - 28
ZB- 2
WW - 4
AD - 5
V7 - 2

Leasing - 71

Next among aging fleets?

AR ? lots of leased birds
SK ? some leased birds
AY ? lots of leased birds
AF ? lots of leased birds
BR? lots of leased birds
CI ? lots of leased birds
PR ? lots of leased birds
MH ? Some leased birds

Who is going to take the plunge next?
Plane mad!
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:22 pm

Hard to tell.

It's easier to pick out the ones that won't be ordering them soon.

These are ones that will most likely not order anytime soon.

SK - just ordered 1 ceo + A350 coming soon
AY - relatively young A330 fleet, lot's of A350 coming in.
AF - 787s and A350s coming in soon
BR - heavily invested in the 787-10, 1st 787 coming soon.

maybe
AR - they are in need of a new fleet, but can they afford new aircraft or will they go the used A330ceo route?
MH - Who knows, but they also have a LoI for 787s, if they firm those the A330neo will not be likely for a quick order.

That leaves CI and PR as possible candidates for a next order. But it will most likely be another airline. The rumored order by IndiGo for 50 is one to watch, although I don't expect it will be for 50 straight away. And China will be interesting, plenty of 787 and A350 orders the last couple of years, it might be time for them to order some A330neo's. Also to keep their A330 finishing center up and running now the ceo orders are slowly starting to dry up.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:25 pm

I think Cathay Pacific will eventually make a decent order. Both for themselves and for Cathay Dragon.

Momo1435 wrote:
SK - just ordered 1 ceo + A350 coming soon

SAS currently has eight old A340-300s to replace and also four older A330-300s. Their long haul order-book is for 8 X A350 and 1 X A330ceo. A350s will replace A340s one for one. If they prioritise replacing the older A330-300s, a small order for A330-900neos could work - it would be easy enough to integrate the neo into their fleet. I'd imagine that at some point in the future all of the A330ceos would be replaced by neos, though that could be a decade away. All of SAS's "new" A330-300s (first one is a 2015 build) are leased, so the airline isn't necessarily tied to them long term.
Last edited by zkojq on Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:50 pm

With the cancelations they have had, I think any big order will get a great price, specially now that the 787 order book is packed and the price hovers 115 million or a LOT less per copy.... Who will get the bargain?

Things are very interesting now...

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
Antarius
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:06 pm

The neo has 4 total orders in the last year and a half. So after an initial surge, it hasnt done that well recently. The next question is the 28 IR orders.

Looks like the small orders have all but dried up with Boeing aggressively pricing the 787. As another poster said above, the next set may be a single large order at excellent pricing.
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T54A
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:39 pm

SAA’s eventual fleet replacement will be an A330NEO/A350 fleet or a B787-8/9/10. (maybe with a few B777x’s). This will have to be decided sooner rather than later
T6, Allouette 3, Oryx, King Air, B1900, B727, B744, A319, A342/3/6 A332/3
 
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DWC
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:58 pm

In theory all healthy A330ceo operators could be considered unless they have stated or ordered otherwise.

But to see clearer into this, does anyone know how much Airbus are now selling the A330Neo ? its production cost given the lower volume ?
and likewise how much is Boeing selling its 787 now that production is in cruising speed ?
Then of course come the usual other criteria like fleet commonality, timing & slots, lessors, some politics...
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:14 pm

T54A wrote:
SAA’s eventual fleet replacement will be an A330NEO/A350 fleet or a B787-8/9/10. (maybe with a few B777x’s). This will have to be decided sooner rather than later


I have serious doubts about the 787 at SAA. Hot&high conditions at JNB just don't mix well with the 787, especially if then intend on flying to JFK and all.
777X might be a contender but they might be too big or too expensive.
So my guess would also be A330neo/A350

Then again 777X or A350, SAA would need money to order anything...
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:58 pm

DWC wrote:
how much is Boeing selling its 787 now that production is in cruising speed ?


It rumored that they can go lower than 100 million a copy and have still room for a decent profit. (decent as in less than 10 million), but all this is just approximations on economics of scale and the amazing cost cutting at Boeing. Now Airbus must compete with the 787 and its product is no slouch either so basically it goes down to crews, maintenance, ancillary costs and the amount paid for each copy... I bet its going to be a blood bath to secure those orders and Engine makers will enter the fray to sweeten those deals... Its getting very interesting, in the mean time the VLA like the A380 and to some extent the 779/8 will probably suffer from this for years to come.

Best Regards
TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
a350lover
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:26 pm

Some A330neo for IB maybe? They could probably perform some better once the A340s get fully replaced.
 
stylo777
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:29 pm

mother Lufthansa might order a few for their child Eurowings for replacement and future expansion (considering the longhaul LCC model works out for them...)
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:43 pm

a350lover wrote:
Some A330neo for IB maybe? They could probably perform some better once the A340s get fully replaced.


A346 are staying at least another 5 years, and the direction is moving towards A350s. But within IAG, I'd think in EI as next order
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:13 pm

NZ321 wrote:
PR ? lots of leased birds

Who is going to take the plunge next?

Build, certificate and sell this for cheap and they might just bite..... :bigmouth: .....

Image

Perfect for SEA, YVR and other long, thin European routes. :bigthumbsup:


Momo1435 wrote:
That leaves CI and PR as possible candidates for a next order.

Seriously now, rising fuel prices may prompt the airline to order more efficient planes...but which aircraft? PR's second ex-IB A340 has just been ferried to SFB to await its fate (with the remaining four to follow)...leaving the airline with no right-sized substitute for SFO and its second daily frequency to LAX. It's conceivable that they could pick the A359 standard weight version for their six options to economize but that would give them no flexibility --- as for instance, one of their 77Ws had to make a fuel stop at HAM on its way to LHR last week due to missile launches in Kazakhstan.

PR's Chairman and President will be in TLS on July 18 to accept delivery of its first HGW A359...four are scheduled for this year, while the next two will come next year. It remains to be seen if PR would let go of its two oldest 77Ws on lease (or other A330s) when all six A359s are delivered...and convert its six options for whatever model. It's a toss-up whether the price difference with the A330N could offset the better operating efficiency of the A359 year-round. :scratchchin:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
trex8
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:25 pm

CI has 12 owned A333s which will be needing a 3rd heavy check starting by 2022. The first leased ones will need their 2nd heavy check starting this year and are only leased for 12 years so they may not even be kept beyond that. All those essentially need replacing by the mid 2020s. I dont know how many of the A359s are for replacement and growth back, when they ordered them back in 09 they had 6 A343 and a similar number of the A333s configured "long range"(less J seating, more pitch) which were supposed to be what the A359s were supposed to replace but they have 12 "long range" A333s now.
While a 787 order is possible I would think this is Airbus' to lose. Especially if they go to single fleet flying for A359/A330
I would also say a A338 order is possible if they go A330neo. They need something between a 158/161 seat 738 and a 306 seat A359 or 307/313 seat A333. They have options on 6 A359s which need to be exercised this year and I could certainly see that happen. They wont need a A339 as they have the A359 already. They need something smaller. A 242t A338 will allow lower capacity on regional routes than a 300 seat A333/A359, while still being capable of starting new routes on long haul. It will carry lots of cargo compared to trying to put eg 737Max10 or A321 on regional routes. 1/3 of their revenue is cargo.
 
kevin5345179
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:55 pm

trex8 wrote:
CI has 12 owned A333s which will be needing a 3rd heavy check starting by 2022. The first leased ones will need their 2nd heavy check starting this year and are only leased for 12 years so they may not even be kept beyond that. All those essentially need replacing by the mid 2020s. I dont know how many of the A359s are for replacement and growth back, when they ordered them back in 09 they had 6 A343 and a similar number of the A333s configured "long range"(less J seating, more pitch) which were supposed to be what the A359s were supposed to replace but they have 12 "long range" A333s now.
While a 787 order is possible I would think this is Airbus' to lose. Especially if they go to single fleet flying for A359/A330
I would also say a A338 order is possible if they go A330neo. They need something between a 158/161 seat 738 and a 306 seat A359 or 307/313 seat A333. They have options on 6 A359s which need to be exercised this year and I could certainly see that happen. They wont need a A339 as they have the A359 already. They need something smaller. A 242t A338 will allow lower capacity on regional routes than a 300 seat A333/A359, while still being capable of starting new routes on long haul. It will carry lots of cargo compared to trying to put eg 737Max10 or A321 on regional routes. 1/3 of their revenue is cargo.


don't count on that as CI is heavily influence by politicians ......
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:41 pm

The issue right now with the A330NEO is that the leasing companies are competing with Airbus for small orders. What is needed is one new large customer. The issue is Boeing is being agressive and using new found lower production costs (translation, vendor squeeze) to underbid the A330NEO enough to pay for a fleet transition.

Airbus must secure a large order because of this and economy of scale. Due to automation, every time you double production cost per unit drops 13%. Between this and the vendor squeeze, the purchase discount airlines expected on the A330NEO vs. 789 isn't there or is marginal.

Since the A330NEO is late, some airlines could cancel with little penalty. Boeing will try to exploit that (as Airbus has).

Douglas refused to sell the 717 (then MD95) at low profits and was pushed out by Leahy being agressive, so it isn't as if Airbus didn't write the book on this strategy (actually, has Keahy's book come out?).

Farnborough and the A330NEO will be facinating.

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trex8
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:43 pm

kevin5345179 wrote:
trex8 wrote:
CI has 12 owned A333s which will be needing a 3rd heavy check starting by 2022. The first leased ones will need their 2nd heavy check starting this year and are only leased for 12 years so they may not even be kept beyond that. All those essentially need replacing by the mid 2020s. I dont know how many of the A359s are for replacement and growth back, when they ordered them back in 09 they had 6 A343 and a similar number of the A333s configured "long range"(less J seating, more pitch) which were supposed to be what the A359s were supposed to replace but they have 12 "long range" A333s now.
While a 787 order is possible I would think this is Airbus' to lose. Especially if they go to single fleet flying for A359/A330
I would also say a A338 order is possible if they go A330neo. They need something between a 158/161 seat 738 and a 306 seat A359 or 307/313 seat A333. They have options on 6 A359s which need to be exercised this year and I could certainly see that happen. They wont need a A339 as they have the A359 already. They need something smaller. A 242t A338 will allow lower capacity on regional routes than a 300 seat A333/A359, while still being capable of starting new routes on long haul. It will carry lots of cargo compared to trying to put eg 737Max10 or A321 on regional routes. 1/3 of their revenue is cargo.


don't count on that as CI is heavily influence by politicians ......

Once maybe and Im sure some goes on still but in fleet planning, they went A343 due to etops (and this was years past the French selling Lafayettes and Mirages already) , they have gone A333 instead 772 (ok maybe as a result of having made the A343 decision a few years earlier- plus it is a better regional big twin). They went A359 because they said there were no 787 slots (which was certainly true at the time also). They arent that big or making that much money to have maybe 2 dozen 787s and A359s on the premises. Boeing was also in the s...... with the ROC government for a long time over the Apache deal. They wouldnt even negotiate offsets till it was quite clear the would be the first export customer for the Apache Guardian and the Pentagon made them start talking to Taipei as they were afraid of upsetting Beijing at a time when Bell and Sikorsky were tripping over themselves to give lots of offsets if not the actual assembly line for that attack chopper contract. And Boeings attitude to bending over to appease Beijing will not get any better with each successive year which will win them no friends in the ROC government of either party and will not likely result in any significant pressure to award contracts for any particular supplier to CI except on merit/price. The days of being forced to take 744s or MD11s for political reasons is long past.
 
tris06
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:11 am

I would agree with trex but I think the 339 is more likely to be ordered As it performs better at short to medium range than the 338. Also the 339 still has decent range and could do 10/11hr flights.

Polictics does happen with CI but its much less than before. Firstly CI is very close to Airbus as Airbus has been more keen to deals with CI. Where Boeing in the past took CI for granted. Also the Taiwanese government is sick of owning a dud company rarely making a profit. So hence more flexibility was allowed in recent times.
 
AZa346
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:39 am

How about Alitalia in the longer term? They have 14 A330 (average age 8,9 years) and 12 777 which are on average 14,5! I Know they first need to sort things out... But later they need to order something and i believe that the A330NEO could be good, as I BELIEVE it would be fine For all of their routes! Transitioning to a single model would also help reducing expenses! Opinions?
 
raffik
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:36 am

MEA have stated they will either be placing an order for 5 A330NEO in the next month or ordering 5 787-900. Seeing as their fleet has been all airbus for decades, I'd be surprised if they didn't order the A330NEO! They have 5 A330-200s that will be replaced soon
- Alec
 
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Carlos01
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:09 am

Devilfish wrote:
It's a toss-up whether the price difference with the A330N could offset the better operating efficiency of the A359 year-round. :scratchchin:


One issue with the A330Neo is the short-term benefit with the low purchase price - which is even questionable against the B787 - is the only fact-based reason supporting it. Then the rest is unknown, meaning mainly the fuel price, and the higher that goes, the less attractive operating the A330Neo would become.

I doubt that any airline CEO would be willing to take the risk of having to tell the board that "Yes, I knew the risks but I went with the 330Neo because it was slightly cheaper to buy. Admitted, now we're more and more screwed month by month, which was fully predictable at the time, sorry about that, my bad."

Whereas going with the 787 or even the 350, you know from day 1 how much premium you have to pay for them - still having the assurance of having the most economical aircraft available going forward. It's pretty much a no-brainer, unless you have other than economical needs. Which would be quite rare in the airline business.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:45 am

I'd keep an eye on the Thomas Cook Group. There was a thread on here quite recently that they are looking at long-haul aircraft to replace Condor's fleet of 767's, however other airlines within the Group (TC UK and Scandinavia) both use A330's and UK have been slowly expanding long-haul in recent years using second-hand aircraft and leasing from Air Tanker, particularly out of MAN to the US. They have also been shuffling aircraft across the Group, so there's an opportunity here to standardise on one widebody type for the entire group. The A330neo has to have a shout here given the ceo's already in use and A320/A321's elsewhere, so there's potential for a decent sized order at a good price if they decide to place one order for the whole Group, but stranger things have happened.

Link to recent thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1395177

Another potential order in the coming years could come from VS. They have 10 A330-300's, however the challenge is that VS already have a large fleet of 787-9's and have A350's on the way, so a move to a two-type fleet could be the smarter approach. VS could of course simply extend the leases given they're quite young and are well-suited for the US East Coast/Caribbean routes.
 
tphuang
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:05 pm

If this entire tariff thing keeps up, China will order many more a330neo
 
SteelChair
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:24 pm

The problem is the product. I've been very critical of Boeing on these boards, but in this market segment, the Boeing product is just better. The 787 is so much better than the very good for 1993 A330 that I don't see the 330neo ever gaining large orders in this incredibly competitive market landscape, especially if the rumored low prices on 787s due to production of scale are true.

The Boeing product is an order of magnitude better imho.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:04 pm

I would expect some more orders through leasing companies from smaller airlines. Airlines without strong credit or access to capital will be attracted to the lease rates being offered. Airlines like Azul, Aircalin, Rwandair, HiFly etc are perfect for the A330neo and have ordered it. I would expect more from smaller airlines that have limited long haul networks. A leased A330neo is probably one of the cheapest ways to be flying long haul.
 
bigjku
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:39 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I would expect some more orders through leasing companies from smaller airlines. Airlines without strong credit or access to capital will be attracted to the lease rates being offered. Airlines like Azul, Aircalin, Rwandair, HiFly etc are perfect for the A330neo and have ordered it. I would expect more from smaller airlines that have limited long haul networks. A leased A330neo is probably one of the cheapest ways to be flying long haul.


I think with the ones currently on order it will be cheap to lease because the companies that already ordered are desperate to place the planes and get any return at all.

I see no reason why going forward a leasing company would go buy a new plane to lease someone and would do it morit cheaply for an A330neo than a 787.

For the leasing company it only makes sense to lease the plane more cheaply if they get it a lot cheaper which they don’t anymore. All the lower lease rates they get for the a330 compared to the 787 represent to them is lost income from poorly deployed capital right?

If as a lessor my capital outlay is roughly the same I want to asset that commands a higher lease price. There is zero logic in acquiring more A330neos than they have already bought if the rate of return is less than a comparable asset.

Even an argument that small poor airlines can’t afford 787 lease rates so it’s the A330 or nothing doesn’t work out really. I think the cheap capacity argument works for the A330neos the leasing companies are already locked into. Beyond that the logic doesn’t hold up.

A plane with less overall demand and a lower likely residual value is not one a leasing company should invest in unless it’s substantially cheaper, which it isn’t.
 
Kadish
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:47 pm

Jayafe wrote:
a350lover wrote:
Some A330neo for IB maybe? They could probably perform some better once the A340s get fully replaced.


A346 are staying at least another 5 years, and the direction is moving towards A350s. But within IAG, I'd think in EI as next order


You are right, the 346 will be around at least 5 more years and they will be changed by 350, but I dont think that they "are moving towards A350" only, Its too big for some routes where Ib is sending their 332/333.

Having said that I think its possible to order 6/10 frames to grow.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:26 pm

Carlos01 wrote:
One issue with the A330Neo is the short-term benefit with the low purchase price - which is even questionable against the B787 - is the only fact-based reason supporting it. Then the rest is unknown, meaning mainly the fuel price, and the higher that goes, the less attractive operating the A330Neo would become.

There is that as well. I was on record here pushing for the 789 for PAL but since they had opted for the A359, they have to make their bed with it (or something close to what are already in their fleet) to maximize commonality benefits and after-sales support deals, especially with the engine OEM. Not much sense in a mixed subfleet for a slight but expensive efficiency improvement.

Carlos01 wrote:
I doubt that any airline CEO would be willing to take the risk of having to tell the board that "Yes, I knew the risks but I went with the 330Neo because it was slightly cheaper to buy. Admitted, now we're more and more screwed month by month, which was fully predictable at the time, sorry about that, my bad."

But that's precisely why the CEO is paid the big bucks...to make the hard decisions. It's doubtful that the risks are that bad, as noises emanating from Airbus indicate that the A330neo is exceeding promises (even if they do say so themselves). It's the CEO's job to separate the wheat from the chaff and make do with what they have...to drive a hard bargain to get what they need and make the risks worthwhile in the process.

Carlos01 wrote:
Whereas going with the 787 or even the 350, you know from day 1 how much premium you have to pay for them - still having the assurance of having the most economical aircraft available going forward. It's pretty much a no-brainer, unless you have other than economical needs. Which would be quite rare in the airline business.

Indeed everything boils down to economic imperative...which not having deep pockets as in PR's case limits their financing options and the residual values they could accept. As for cheap 787s, there's no guarantee that Boeing will give the same discounts to a small airline that at most could order a handful of planes...and piecemeal at that.


Newbiepilot wrote:
I would expect some more orders through leasing companies from smaller airlines. Airlines without strong credit or access to capital will be attracted to the lease rates being offered.

And this is how PR might do it.


bigjku wrote:
I think with the ones currently on order it will be cheap to lease because the companies that already ordered are desperate to place the planes and get any return at all.

Even an argument that small poor airlines can’t afford 787 lease rates so it’s the A330 or nothing doesn’t work out really. I think the cheap capacity argument works for the A330neos the leasing companies are already locked into.

And those would be the target of airlines looking to add cheap capacity.


BTW, I still think the A338N could be well-suited for resuming PR's secondary CEB-LAX service! :biggrin:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
EddieDude
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:40 pm

In the medium term I would expect DL to order more A330NEOs. The planes subject matter of the order placed so far will be used mostly in TATL flights according to DL. The number of 77Es, A332s, A333s, 763ERs and 764ERs in DL's fleet is to me an indication that, when the time comes, DL will need a few more planes in the A339 segment, in order to deploy them to South America (as well as in some West Coast-Northeast Asia flights).

OS and SN could also do with the A330NEO, as well as KA. I am sure many other carriers will at least look into the A330NEO. Once more A332s and A333s start reaching their retirement age, carriers will definitely consider replacing them with NEOs.
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reidar76
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:35 pm

I think people expect way to many coming A330 orders. I think it is reasonable to assume that Airbus with the current order backlog, and with coming orders, will be able to maintain the A330 production at 5 to 6 aircraft per months for many years to come. It is unlikely that the A330 ever again will reach a production rate of 10 per month. With the 787 at 12 per month, and production possibly increase to 14 per month in a few years, the market ratio in this segment will be approximately 33 % Airbus and 67 % Boeing. If we look at orders in the last 10 years, the market share ratio between the A330 and 787 has been 50/50. This will clearly not be the case going forward.

Note that the 777X and A330neo is in a similar situation.

First delivery:
A330: 1994
777: 1995

Both families have gone thru significant upgrades since first delivery, with significant MTOW increases.

Number of pax aircraft delivered since first delivery: (as of end of 2017)
A330 (-200/-300): 1323 aircraft
777 (-200/-300): 1377 aircraft

Boeing launched the 787, where the 787-8 is near identically sized as the A330-200-/800, and the 787-9 is near identically sized as the A330-300/-900.

A few years later Airbus launched the A350, where the A350-900 and A350-1000 are near one to one replacements for the 777-200ER and 777-300ER respectively.

Airbus responds to the 787 by upgrading the A330 family: New engines, increased wingspan, cabin upgrades etc. The A330neo is born.

Boeing responds to the A350 by upgrading the 777 family: New engines, increased wingspan, cabin upgrades, a slight stretch etc. The 777X is born.

I reckon these two warmed over families will continue to sell in similar numbers. Whether the A330neo (or 777X) is a success or not, depends on the price Airbus (Boeing) is able to achieve per aircraft sold. Ref. return on investments made.

The 777X/A350 market share ratio will probably be similar to the A330/787 ratio, with the warmed over families having closer to 33 % market share, while the clean sheet families enjoying closer to 67 % market share (in their respective market segments).
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:38 pm

EddieDude wrote:
In the medium term I would expect DL to order more A330NEOs. The planes subject matter of the order placed so far will be used mostly in TATL flights according to DL. The number of 77Es, A332s, A333s, 763ERs and 764ERs in DL's fleet is to me an indication that, when the time comes, DL will need a few more planes in the A339 segment, in order to deploy them to South America (as well as in some West Coast-Northeast Asia flights).


Delta's philosophy with their 777L fleet was to use them on freight-heavy routes but not (JNB excepted) really for ULH operations for which they have the necessary capability.

The 339 at 251 tons will enable them to maintain that approach at a lower acquisition cost.
 
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Polot
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:02 pm

Devilfish wrote:

bigjku wrote:
I think with the ones currently on order it will be cheap to lease because the companies that already ordered are desperate to place the planes and get any return at all.

Even an argument that small poor airlines can’t afford 787 lease rates so it’s the A330 or nothing doesn’t work out really. I think the cheap capacity argument works for the A330neos the leasing companies are already locked into.

And those would be the target of airlines looking to add cheap capacity.


The problem is that is only a short term benefit. Leasing companies are businesses, not charities. If they find that they are getting significantly better returns of investment from 787s than A330neos then they will just stop placing large speculative follow up orders for the A330neo in favor of the 787, and a supply of cheap leasable A330neos will no longer exist. If Airbus can’t replace those orders from leasing companies with direct orders than the total number of A330neos, and it’s re-marketability, will decrease, and the premiums to finance the plane will increase. Making it harder to be price competitive. The lack of orders may also require a production cut, further rising production costs and making it harder to be price competitive.

That is why Airbus/the leasing companies need to work hard to get more solid orders and commitments from blue chip customers, not airlines like Rwandair. The fact that leasing companies are having to lease out relatively early slots to airlines who business model is subleasing, wet leasing, and chartering out planes (HiFly), aka leasing from one middle man to another, is a little worrisome. Airlines like HiFly should be ordering direct from Airbus or picking up the used planes coming off lease that are being replaced by 787/A330neos
 
dcajet
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:45 pm

Momo1435 wrote:

AR - they are in need of a new fleet, but can they afford new aircraft or will they go the used A330ceo route?
.


I guess then that the 30+ 738, 4A332ceo, 14 MAX 8 and 26 E190s that AR has received new from the manufacturers over the last 8 years come for free? A charity write off for A & B?
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:36 am

FX/UP and an -F program would be an important order for the aircraft longevity and might assist in gaining additional passenger orders, It's a good aircraft, but if there is a buyer further down the track for parts then a few more airlines will jump,
Flown to 128 Airports in 48 Countries on 81 Operators. Visited 56 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:53 am

Polot wrote:
Devilfish wrote:

bigjku wrote:
I think with the ones currently on order it will be cheap to lease because the companies that already ordered are desperate to place the planes and get any return at all.

Even an argument that small poor airlines can’t afford 787 lease rates so it’s the A330 or nothing doesn’t work out really. I think the cheap capacity argument works for the A330neos the leasing companies are already locked into.

And those would be the target of airlines looking to add cheap capacity.


The problem is that is only a short term benefit. Leasing companies are businesses, not charities. If they find that they are getting significantly better returns of investment from 787s than A330neos then they will just stop placing large speculative follow up orders for the A330neo in favor of the 787, and a supply of cheap leasable A330neos will no longer exist. If Airbus can’t replace those orders from leasing companies with direct orders than the total number of A330neos, and it’s re-marketability, will decrease, and the premiums to finance the plane will increase. Making it harder to be price competitive. The lack of orders may also require a production cut, further rising production costs and making it harder to be price competitive.

That is why Airbus/the leasing companies need to work hard to get more solid orders and commitments from blue chip customers, not airlines like Rwandair. The fact that leasing companies are having to lease out relatively early slots to airlines who business model is subleasing, wet leasing, and chartering out planes (HiFly), aka leasing from one middle man to another, is a little worrisome. Airlines like HiFly should be ordering direct from Airbus or picking up the used planes coming off lease that are being replaced by 787/A330neos


Blue chip customers buy directly and than do sell and lease back agreements, so leasing firms supplying a customer like HyFly or Rwanda Air is not worrisome, but supplying their typical customers.

The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:12 am

mjoelnir wrote:
The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.

A net total of 0 orders since the January 2017 is of course a good number..... You can't deny that the A330neo is currently a very slow seller, a couple of small orders don't change that as they only compensate the cancellations, which also didn't happen in great numbers.

There's always talk about a down turn or a wide body glut in the market, or that the replacement cycle of the A330ceo hasn't started yet. But why are other models like the A350 still selling? A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?

It's very reasonable to talk about the lack of larger orders for the A330neo right now and to come to the conclusion that it's something for Airbus to be concerned about. And that is not an attack on the A330neo or Airbus, it's just the reality right now. Personally I don't have the answer to the question why it's a slow seller. It's a good plane, if the A330ceo could hold up against the 787 the A330neo should certainly be able to do the same. But still the airlines decide to order 787s and A350s instead. The interesting part of this discussion is to find out why they make those choices against the A330neo. I'm certain that Airbus also wants to know. Of course there will be more sales, but I simply don't see another order rush like the A330ceo had. A lot of the airlines mentioned in this threat will simply go for the A350 and 787 instead, that trend is not suddenly going to change this year.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:33 am

Quite a few of the A330NEO orders are to lease companies. Most dont have an airline to lease them to yet.

There are quite a few small airlines with A330CEO's. I would expect these airlines to lease these A330NEO's that are already on order.

So i dont expect significant orders in the short term. Most blue chip airlines will unfortunately go 787 or A350. The program probably wont survive the long term.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:37 am

Momo1435 wrote:
...A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?


The only competing product with the A330neo is the 787, so I dont really understand why talking about "other competitors/planes". Reality is that the WB is not a single market. In the upper range, A350 has a decent backlog, competing with the 777. In the bottom range, 787 has outsold the Neo due to agreesive pricing/dumping. Apart from that, new strategies and oil prices has come with changes of strategy, where a direct plane-by-plane capacity is not happening (capacity/economics wise), hence some A330 operators are turning into A350 while others are downsizing to 787. Still plenty of opportunities out there for the Neo (including the A338) but circumstances and market turns will dictate how fast they come. Remember that 757 and 767 stopped selling for long and were put out of the market, but they would be getting contracts right now if they were still in production. Time will tell, but the Neo looks like an underdog ready to surprise competitors, specially when it shows how much it can improve performance expectations.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:13 am

Momo1435 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.

A net total of 0 orders since the January 2017 is of course a good number..... You can't deny that the A330neo is currently a very slow seller, a couple of small orders don't change that as they only compensate the cancellations, which also didn't happen in great numbers.

There's always talk about a down turn or a wide body glut in the market, or that the replacement cycle of the A330ceo hasn't started yet. But why are other models like the A350 still selling? A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?

It's very reasonable to talk about the lack of larger orders for the A330neo right now and to come to the conclusion that it's something for Airbus to be concerned about. And that is not an attack on the A330neo or Airbus, it's just the reality right now. Personally I don't have the answer to the question why it's a slow seller. It's a good plane, if the A330ceo could hold up against the 787 the A330neo should certainly be able to do the same. But still the airlines decide to order 787s and A350s instead. The interesting part of this discussion is to find out why they make those choices against the A330neo. I'm certain that Airbus also wants to know. Of course there will be more sales, but I simply don't see another order rush like the A330ceo had. A lot of the airlines mentioned in this threat will simply go for the A350 and 787 instead, that trend is not suddenly going to change this year.


No orders since December 2017. It must be very difficult to read a date. WOWair, Auzul, BOC and Air Senagal ordered a few in December 2017.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:17 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Quite a few of the A330NEO orders are to lease companies. Most dont have an airline to lease them to yet.

There are quite a few small airlines with A330CEO's. I would expect these airlines to lease these A330NEO's that are already on order.

So i dont expect significant orders in the short term. Most blue chip airlines will unfortunately go 787 or A350. The program probably wont survive the long term.


Most leasing companies have not declared the airlines they lease to. It is not often in the news before the frames are actually taken. The last order by a leasing company was BOC aviation in December 2017.
 
ist2014
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:23 am

Given the fact that TK is the biggest A330 operator, can we except some 330neo order or will they go with 350/787
I know, they order 50 frames of 350/787 but it is not sufficient for replacement of all a330s and they will be used for growth
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:25 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.

A net total of 0 orders since the January 2017 is of course a good number..... You can't deny that the A330neo is currently a very slow seller, a couple of small orders don't change that as they only compensate the cancellations, which also didn't happen in great numbers.


No orders since December 2017. It must be very difficult to read a date. WOWair, Auzul, BOC and Air Senagal ordered a few in December 2017.

You should indeed try a bit harder to read the dates I mentioned. 0 net orders since January 2017. These small orders just compensated the cancelations in 2017 and 2018, the net orders are still ZERO for this period, if you like it or not, that are the facts.

And again, it's not likely that this will stay zero for too much longer and I hope for Airbus that it will be more than just another couple of small orders.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:38 am

Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to. It is also not possible to declare that it would make it difficult to finance a A330neo through leasing, because the leasing companies shy away. In the worst case ask a leasing company that has already A330neo on order, they will surely take a few more.

The A330neo has direct orders from blue chip airlines, at least I count Delta and Tap to them.

There have been no new firm orders for the A330neo for 6 month now, hardly a long drought. The 777-8/9 has no new orders for a whole year now. 787 had an order drought for four years, 2009 to 2012, before orders picked up again.
There were more A330 orders in 2016 than 787 orders.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:44 am

Jayafe wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
...A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?


The only competing product with the A330neo is the 787, so I dont really understand why talking about "other competitors/planes". Reality is that the WB is not a single market. In the upper range, A350 has a decent backlog, competing with the 777. In the bottom range, 787 has outsold the Neo due to agreesive pricing/dumping. Apart from that, new strategies and oil prices has come with changes of strategy, where a direct plane-by-plane capacity is not happening (capacity/economics wise), hence some A330 operators are turning into A350 while others are downsizing to 787. Still plenty of opportunities out there for the Neo (including the A338) but circumstances and market turns will dictate how fast they come. Remember that 757 and 767 stopped selling for long and were put out of the market, but they would be getting contracts right now if they were still in production. Time will tell, but the Neo looks like an underdog ready to surprise competitors, specially when it shows how much it can improve performance expectations.

The A330ceo, 787, A330neo, A350-900 are all in the same market segment. Yes there are differences between these planes, but these are not big enough for airlines to all see them in a completely different light. This can been seen in the RFPs that airlines are doing for widebody aircraft, a lot of them include all 3 new models plus the A3510 and 77X (both are indeed bigger). The decision to go for any of them is based on a multitude of reasons, in the end they will make their fleet decision work. It's hard to go wrong with an A330neo, 787 or A350 anyway.

Airlines have choice, and the majority that are buying these kind of planes have decided to order 787 or A359 (or both) for the last couple of years.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:50 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to. It is also not possible to declare that it would make it difficult to finance a A330neo through leasing, because the leasing companies shy away. In the worst case ask a leasing company that has already A330neo on order, they will surely take a few more.

The A330neo has direct orders from blue chip airlines, at least I count Delta and Tap to them.

There have been no new firm orders for the A330neo for 6 month now, hardly a long drought. The 777-8/9 has no new orders for a whole year now. 787 had an order drought for four years, 2009 to 2012, before orders picked up again.
There were more A330 orders in 2016 than 787 orders.

The 787 never had a drought. Yes they had negative net sales numbers for several years, but that doesn't mean that they didn't have orders. It's the same as the A330neo right now but then on a larger scale with bigger cancellations, but also with larger new orders in those 4 years.

The 777X also needs orders. To go even further, I always say that struggling models need orders to survive. It goes for all models for all manufactures. Actually it goes for all products, it's just how business, if a product doesn't get enough orders it will be deemed a failure, no matter what you are selling.
 
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Polot
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:20 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.

A net total of 0 orders since the January 2017 is of course a good number..... You can't deny that the A330neo is currently a very slow seller, a couple of small orders don't change that as they only compensate the cancellations, which also didn't happen in great numbers.

There's always talk about a down turn or a wide body glut in the market, or that the replacement cycle of the A330ceo hasn't started yet. But why are other models like the A350 still selling? A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?

It's very reasonable to talk about the lack of larger orders for the A330neo right now and to come to the conclusion that it's something for Airbus to be concerned about. And that is not an attack on the A330neo or Airbus, it's just the reality right now. Personally I don't have the answer to the question why it's a slow seller. It's a good plane, if the A330ceo could hold up against the 787 the A330neo should certainly be able to do the same. But still the airlines decide to order 787s and A350s instead. The interesting part of this discussion is to find out why they make those choices against the A330neo. I'm certain that Airbus also wants to know. Of course there will be more sales, but I simply don't see another order rush like the A330ceo had. A lot of the airlines mentioned in this threat will simply go for the A350 and 787 instead, that trend is not suddenly going to change this year.


No orders since December 2017. It must be very difficult to read a date. WOWair, Auzul, BOC and Air Senagal ordered a few in December 2017.

No, BOC and Air Senagal ordered a few (a total of 4). Wowair and Azul are leasing theirs from existing orders, despite what Wikipedia’s A330neo order page implies. The first planes for both have already been painted.

Also I’m not sure that pointing out that Airbus got orders for the A330neo 6 months after the 777X when the 777X’s order was 5x larger bolsters your case all that much.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:13 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to.


Well, fact of the matter is, whether leasing companies were sure of their ability to place A330neos or not when they ordered them years ago, the fact that many of these frames are still unplaced 3+ years later cannot be seen as a good thing for the neo's prospects either with operators or orders.
 
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Polot
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:30 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to.


Well, fact of the matter is, whether leasing companies were sure of their ability to place A330neos or not when they ordered them years ago, the fact that many of these frames are still unplaced 3+ years later cannot be seen as a good thing for the neo's prospects either with operators or orders.

Also most A330neo leasing orders were in fact placed without any idea who they would be leased too. CIT, Avolon, and ALC all committed to the A330neo at program launch at the Farnborough Air Show in 2014. You think they already had customers lined up? :lol: BOC is the only leasor to order A330neos since then (for 2), which are probably already committed.

The strength of the A330ceo meant the leasing gaints were comfortable placing speculative orders for the A330neo. But the Neo will have to survive based on its own merit, not the A330ceo’s past success. If it can’t then the leasors will just move on. They are not going to try to force the A330neo to have the same success as the A330ceo.
 
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glideslope
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:44 pm

TheRedBaron wrote:
With the cancelations they have had, I think any big order will get a great price, specially now that the 787 order book is packed and the price hovers 115 million or a LOT less per copy.... Who will get the bargain?

Things are very interesting now...

TRB


My money is on AF. ;)
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:45 pm

Farnborough will make or break the A330NEO. :(
The big decision will be Indigo. Indigo airlines is going more to a purchase outright model versus their prior sales/leaseback. However, they need financing flexibility and the option for sales leaseback...

Polot wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to.


Well, fact of the matter is, whether leasing companies were sure of their ability to place A330neos or not when they ordered them years ago, the fact that many of these frames are still unplaced 3+ years later cannot be seen as a good thing for the neo's prospects either with operators or orders.

Also most A330neo leasing orders were in fact placed without any idea who they would be leased too. CIT, Avolon, and ALC all committed to the A330neo at program launch at the Farnborough Air Show in 2014. You think they already had customers lined up? :lol: BOC is the only leasor to order A330neos since then (for 2), which are probably already committed.

The strength of the A330ceo meant the leasing gaints were comfortable placing speculative orders for the A330neo. But the Neo will have to survive based on its own merit, not the A330ceo’s past success. If it can’t then the leasors will just move on. They are not going to try to force the A330neo to have the same success as the A330ceo.

This needs to be emphasized that leasing companies places speculative orders. For a leasing company, a speculative order can be their most profitable order *if* the type is desirable.

The issue today with the A330NEO is that Airbus and leasing companies are competing with each other. The leasing companies have a decision:
1. Discount A330NEOs to keep contract commitments. If that happens, they will *not* place further orders except at discounts that meet their profit targets.
2. Differ A330NEO orders in hopes of finding future customers for unplaced frames. This keeps the leasing companies in competition with Airbus.
3. Pay penalties on an expensive lesson learned. This creates quite a bit of conflict between Airbus and the leasing companies as they of course want their money back.

At this time, leasing companies are very hesitant to place speculative orders for any widebody except the A350 and 787. Because of the issues leasing companies are having issues moving the A330NEO, who thinks they will offer excellent terms on sale/leasebacks? That type of financing is incredibly common. It is what we would expect AirAsia to do. But leasing companies will only do sale/leasebacks on terms that attract investors.

It is for Airbus to shock the market in a way that brings investors to the table. Otherwise, AirAsia will not finance their A330NEO purchases; I would be shocked if AirAsia didn't have an escape clause on financing terms. Airbus couldn't afford to finance the entire order... So there is risk of that order not being completed. And the Federal reserve just raised rates again...

It is for Airbus to solve the issue. Boeing created it by discounting 787s after reducing production costs more than any of us predicted (at least I do not recall any posts from 3+ years ago predicting this level of competition). The game changed since A330NEO launch. What is the recovery plan?

Serious question, what fraction of the leasing company orders for A330NEOs have customers? I know Azul, TAP, and others are taking leased airframes. But how many? Until the leasing companies *want* to dive back into the A330NEO business, the plane will be in purgatory. Not every airline is a DL with so little debt they can sign a contract at risk of not being able to lease it as DL has no issue raising funds (e.g., selling bonds or just borrowing from a bank). Then again, DL is buying so much just off profits...

Lightsaber
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