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Gasman
Posts: 1863
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:11 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Could NZ follow in QF's footsteps and open a pilot academy?

See: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... t-aviation.

Cheers,

C.

They darn well should.

While the worldwide demand for pilots is going stratospheric, there remains especially in this country a massive void between obtaining a CPL and an actual job in the right hand seat of a major carrier. If airlines want supply, and quality they are going to have to take at least some of the ownership of training.
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:25 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
One flight not showing for NW yet is the seasonal QF PER-AKL, I’m sure this is normally loaded by now? There was talk they might increase frequency and make it year round, will it be back? EK operated on PER-AKL maybe?

Can we read anything into Stats NZ's figures, which state that there has been a 2.9% decline in WA overall visitor arrivals to New Zealand, in the past year? In contrast, VIC was +5.3%, QLD was +2.5% and NSW was +2.0%.

Actually, there's been a gradual decline in WA traffic to New Zealand, from ~110,000 visitor arrivals in the year to May 2014, to ~100,000 in the year to May 2018. Each year has been in decline - no growth spurts whatsoever.

See: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... d-may-2018.

Looking the other way, there has also been declines, with the amount of New Zealanders going to WA dropping 11.3% between 2016 and 2017. This was in contrast to the rest of Australia (2.0% growth in Kiwi visitors).

See: https://www.tourism.wa.gov.au/Research- ... ics.aspx#/.

Cheers,

C.


No doubt they'll be over analysed, miss-understood then converted into airline passenger statistics which is more accurate than most airline management decisions.

a) it's short term data
b) what external influences have their been? (Mining Industry, fuel cost, is it making the likes of Bali more affordable for a family holiday)
c) Where has that reduction come form? (what market segment?)
d) numbers alone don't mean anything - what's the RASM been on VA, QF and NZ? - less demand but more profit, or tactics like intentionally increasing fares and reducing passenger loads
e) What are forward bookings looking like now?
f) What is the industry on the ground in WA and NZ saying about each others markets?
g) What has WA tourism done in NZ and what has NZ done in WA to promote each others destination

Unless you can answer these questions, or at a bear minimum have solid information on these sorts of questions then the stats NZ website mean absolutely nothing.
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:40 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
An interesting development in the regional aviation space:

Winston Peters says he believes the state should subsidise regional airports, which is in tune with his pre-election support for an industry proposal that the Government spend $32 million to upgrade 12 regional airports. But Peters, currently Acting Prime Minister was also quick to point out that he was not speaking in the name of the Government.

See: https://pro.newsroom.co.nz/articles/343 ... t-spending.

I'm still holding out hope for CHT's upgrade and 3C 737's!

Cheers,

C.


Where would they use them?

CHT.

Air Chathams plans to introduce a Boeing 737 to this route provided the government confirms the additional funding required to upgrade the existing airport. There is a lot of growth in the chilled seafood market and a larger craft means a lower cost per kilogram which will increase potential for margins on wet fish species and allow that market to grow similar to how live crayfish did in the nineties ...

See (as one of just multiple sources on this): https://www.waterfordpress.co.nz/business/air-chathams/.

Cheers,

C.


I've put some thought into this overnight and loosely crunched some numbers on it.

I can't see how 3C can purchase or lease a 737 and operate profitably. Passenger numbers are too heavily restricted into CHT and the 737 will have 150+/- seats depending on accurired type and config. It's 2-4 times bigger than what's currently operating and from the old NZ days weren't that full anyway.

Perhaps, they feel they can make it work with their cargo (fresh fish) operations but how many services are required for that?

They only fly to CHT 6 times a week max and that's seasonal.

Perhaps, they'll looking to have a partnership with someone who will operate on their behalf (scheduled charter /lease type arrangement) without the need to actually manage the aircraft / crew.

I don't believe we're going to see a 3C 737-300 with the Air Chat livery anytime in the foreseeable future. Unless it's purchased and branded Air Chat's but then subleased to another NZ freight operator - the opposite scenario to what I stated above.
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:26 pm

I caught up with some old friends over the weekend who recently moved into Hobsonville Point. While I was there they took us for a drive around the area including over the motorway and around Whenuapai.

As you can imagine being a Aviation buff the conversation quickly became about Whenuapai Airforce base and what will happen with it.

They really have become a suburban military base and should have moved out 10 years ago (or however long it has been since it was last up for discussion). There is literally housing developments around the perimeter.

Part of this conversation was also looking at the area as a whole, Hobsonville Point, Whenuapai, Kumeu, Huapai, Orewa etc etc. Auckland is rapidly growing North and North West.

Brings me to a point could Whenuapai have had some services to the likes of WLG? - how viable could that be in another 15 years? add another 100,000+ in North West Auckland, the North Shore is already 250,000 and West Auckland about 200,000 also. So you're looking at a population base of over half a million, double that of Wellington today.

Now the biggest issue and probably a show stopper; the airport! other than Whenuapai (which will be demolished at some point and hopefully turned into affordable housing) the only other airports are North Shore and Parakai. Neither are suitable.

Could however, North Shore moved or Parakai expanded? Massey Fly School could move and be closer to their Albany Uni Campus, you'll need to be able to accommodate a ATR or ideally a A320 on domestic operations?

How will AMZ fear with regards to traffic control issues as AKL get's bigger and bigger?

Personally i'd love to see Parakai expanded and North Shore Closed to make one larger regional airfield. Accessible from West Auckland via State Highway 16 and from the North Shore by Kahikatea Flat Road from the Silverdale turn off on State Highway 1 (which could be upgraded). Obvious issue is land and the Parakai is already so so small.

This isn't realistic today nor do I believe it will happen. It's just 20 year pipe dream stuff which would cool given how fast and far Auckland is growing.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:06 am

Gasman wrote:
While the worldwide demand for pilots is going stratospheric, there remains especially in this country a massive void between obtaining a CPL and an actual job in the right hand seat of a major carrier.

Is the issue with getting a job after getting a CPL, or with getting a CPL in the first place? IMO, the big issue is the latter - that is, getting a CPL. AFAIK, the cost is huge, and not all of it can be sourced through a student loan? Even if it can be, there's a huge debt hanging over your shoulders that you wouldn't have in other professions - this is a huge turn-off to prospective pilot trainees. If NZ won't set up a pilot academy, it'd be great to see them maybe establish some scholarships at the least, for deserving candidates?

NZ6 wrote:
I can't see how 3C can purchase or lease a 737 and operate profitably.

My understanding was that they were looking at a 734 combi, which would actually be primarily freight-focused in layout. This would follow in their CV-580 strategy. Therefore, I don't know whether passengers numbers would grow by that much. Given this, there might be a reduced need for jet-compliant security screening, as at other jet airports? The freight industry is big, growing and profitable at CHT - 3C built up the crayfish industry, and could now build up the chilled fresh wetfish industry too. Let's wait and see.

NZ6 wrote:
Brings me to a point could Whenuapai have had some services to the likes of WLG? - how viable could that be in another 15 years?

IMO, that land will be used for housing - Auckland/New Zealand politicians would increasingly face backlash if it wasn't (even though using it for housing would create less economic value than using it for commercial flights). Then there's the noise issue too. Further, I don't really see any compelling national or strategic consideration in developing a second airport in AKL? That being said, there are a lot of good arguments for Whenuapai's aviation development here - see: https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/PDF ... il_iwi.pdf.

DavidByrne wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
My view of "retaliation" is that it is somewhat more knee-jerk and malevolent ...

Well, your so-called "view" is actually incorrect - I suggest you read the Oxford dictionary definition of retaliation, which will inform you that there is no time-related aspect to the definition, as you assert there is.

I suggested that an airline that based its strategy on retaliation wouldn't stay in business long.

Okay, but I never said that by CI launching a non-stop AKL flight, it would be 'basing' its business strategy on retaliation. It's one route that a competitor has threatened them on - it's natural for them to consider a counter-measure against NZ's TPE launch, just as NZ did against JQ's regional New Zealand launch. I still call that type of exercise retaliation (that is, a counter-measure - not a knee-jerk response), and note that we see it all the time in the aviation industry, without airlines going out of business because of it.

DavidByrne wrote:
... there is a long history on this thread of one or two people ...

I find it really sad when people not only hold a grudge, but then verbalize it on the forum through repetitive and over-personalized comments. Can we stop this mentality of demeaning, punishing and shaming other users? You've more than made your point. If you have an issue with a user, then raise it with the moderators - don't use the thread. We're all human, and could probably have a dedicated thread to the amount of annoyances, issues and mistakes of other users, but it's an aviation forum - not a schoolyard.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:17 am

NZ6 wrote:
d) numbers alone don't mean anything - what's the RASM been on VA, QF and NZ? - less demand but more profit, or tactics like intentionally increasing fares and reducing passenger loads

I totally agree - visitor arrivals are just one indicator, which are inconclusive. RASM and yield are obviously relevant too, and I don't know how they've been performing. WA's economy hasn't been doing well in recent years, so this may be relevant to QF's decision too. Lots of New Zealanders were going over to WA for the mining boom, but when New Zealand's economy started to take off, not a lot of WA-er's came over here, despite the WA mining boom dying down. This make-up might be a part of it? I'm just trying to understand why QF would drop AKL - PER, or not expand it to year-round when they said they wanted to - to me, it's not because of any QF - PER dispute, as they were mooting a year-round flight well before that dispute emerged, and said they were hoping to announce something early in 2018 (which has now passed). It must be because of demand and/or yield.

Cheers,

C.
 
A350OZ
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:48 am

planemanofnz wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
An airline whose business model is based on "retaliation" will not stay in business long.

Every airline does it? For example, NZ did it when JQ entered the domestic market by reducing its prices, and QF and VA did it with each other during their domestic price war in Australia.

Cheers,

C.


Okay, I'll take the bite...

Retaliation would be to act in a way to damage your competitor with disregard to one's own bottom line, and no upside short- or long-term.
Competition (in the examples you gave) would be to defend your turf against a competitor. There may be short-term downsides (yield for example), but expected long-term gains (market share anf future higher yields for example).

Anyway, I am not sure how not competing on this route (with a non-stop service) is retaliation in the first place, it's more waiving the white flag... and probably has nothing to do with NZ altogether. My view only, and I leave it at that.
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:58 am

planemanofnz wrote:

NZ6 wrote:
I can't see how 3C can purchase or lease a 737 and operate profitably.

My understanding was that they were looking at a 734 combi, which would actually be primarily freight-focused in layout. This would follow in their CV-580 strategy. Therefore, I don't know whether passengers numbers would grow by that much. Given this, there might be a reduced need for jet-compliant security screening, as at other jet airports? The freight industry is big, growing and profitable at CHT - 3C built up the crayfish industry, and could now build up the chilled fresh wetfish industry too. Let's wait and see.

NZ6 wrote:
Brings me to a point could Whenuapai have had some services to the likes of WLG? - how viable could that be in another 15 years?

IMO, that land will be used for housing - Auckland/New Zealand politicians would increasingly face backlash if it wasn't (even though using it for housing would create less economic value than using it for commercial flights). Then there's the noise issue too. Further, I don't really see any compelling national or strategic consideration in developing a second airport in AKL? That being said, there are a lot of good arguments for Whenuapai's aviation development here - see: https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/PDF ... il_iwi.pdf.

Cheers,

C.


I'm not suggesting we use Whenuapai for a second! That's the whole reason I looked at alternatives to this one. Not just the residential developments and noise constraints it's too close and accessible to AKL with the Waterview tunnel now.

Will be interesting to see what 3C does. Aircraft utilization on the currently schedule will be very low, like uneconomically low. So to be profitable with it they'll need to increase it's utilization and or carry something like 10 times what they do today.

Do they even have the population, processing plants over there to cater for that amount of fresh fish production? unless it's being sold as fresh (not frozen) it doesn't need to go via air. Frozen fish etc can all be shipped via sea at a fraction of the cost and be stored until a full shipment is ready for uplifting.

The only way I can see this working is if 3C subleases or operates services on behalf of someone like DHL, TOLL, NZ Post etc
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:22 am

NZ6 wrote:
I'm not suggesting we use Whenuapai for a second! That's the whole reason I looked at alternatives to this one.

Will be interesting to see what 3C does.

Yes, but it'll be more interesting to see whether CHT in fact gets the required upgrade - AFAIK, the costs of doing so have dramatically risen compared to earlier.

See: https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national ... costs-rise.

On a second airport for AKL, I still don't see the commercial or strategic impetus for doing so, though I accept that others (like those on the Shore) may disagree.

A350OZ wrote:
Retaliation would be to act in a way to damage your competitor with disregard to one's own bottom line ...

I just go by the Oxford dictionary, which views it as simply a counter-action or measure - I appreciate and respect that other people have different views on this.

See: https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/defin ... etaliation.

To make the point to you and others then, I was merely saying that it was possible that CI would launch a non-stop AKL flight, against NZ's non-stop TPE flight.

For whatever reason, they have decided not to do so. They have said AKL is different from an aircraft utilization POV, but I thought NZ's move might push them.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:51 am

planemanofnz wrote:
On a second airport for AKL, I still don't see the commercial or strategic impetus for doing so, though I accept that others (like those on the Shore) may disagree.

Cheers,

C.


Like I said, "This isn't realistic today nor do I believe it will happen".

Common sense says who'll pay for it? If the infrastructure was there aka AMZ, then i'd be excited for it and it could have potential but the fact it'll cost over $50M to be ready means it's a no goer - plus Airways would need to man a tower out there.

Dreams are free!
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1177
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:01 am

planemanofnz wrote:
I find it really sad when people not only hold a grudge, but then verbalize it on the forum through repetitive and over-personalized comments. Can we stop this mentality of demeaning, punishing and shaming other users?

I hold no grudges, it's just that I'm not going to participate in the ongoing dissection of shades of meaning of words. Utterly pointless. End of.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
A350OZ
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:03 am

planemanofnz wrote:
To make the point to you and others then, I was merely saying that it was possible that CI would launch a non-stop AKL flight, against NZ's non-stop TPE flight.

For whatever reason, they have decided not to do so. They have said AKL is different from an aircraft utilization POV, but I thought NZ's move might push them.

Cheers,

C.


Agree with that.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:24 am

NZ6 wrote:
Common sense says who'll pay for it? If the infrastructure was there aka AMZ, then i'd be excited for it and it could have potential but the fact it'll cost over $50M to be ready means it's a no goer ...

I agree. I note that it's not unheard of for airlines to sponsor aviation infrastructure like this - for example, AFAIK, PG developed, constructed, owns and runs USM, and FR have offered to do so for part of DUB's infrastructure. Nothing in AKL or New Zealand would have the scale of either of those, though. What about the development of heliports or seaplane ports, closer to the Shore and/or CBD, connecting with AKL in Mangere and elsewhere? I think that these have potential.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:33 am

NZ6 wrote:
The only way I can see this working is if 3C subleases or operates services on behalf of someone like DHL, TOLL, NZ Post etc

With the development of their NLK service, might they increase the utilization of the jet(s) by adding new routes? For example, I'm not sure how the IUE subsidy works, but could they win that from NZ? Or, could they develop flights to other under-developed island-based communities (which they're familiar with), like AIT, PPG or SON? I'm only talking about a low-frequency, perhaps seasonal, service. Though, it seems more likely that they'll just keep them to CHT, and perhaps NLK.

Cheers,

C.
 
DavidJ08
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:18 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:35 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Is the issue with getting a job after getting a CPL, or with getting a CPL in the first place? IMO, the big issue is the latter - that is, getting a CPL. AFAIK, the cost is huge, and not all of it can be sourced through a student loan? Even if it can be, there's a huge debt hanging over your shoulders that you wouldn't have in other professions - this is a huge turn-off to prospective pilot trainees. If NZ won't set up a pilot academy, it'd be great to see them maybe establish some scholarships at the least, for deserving candidates?

I think the former is just as much (if not more) of an issue as the latter. Yes it costs a lot to get a CPL, but the fact that you can't get a reasonable-paying job immediately afterwards is almost more discouraging than the expenses of the course itself. Compare it to something like medicine (which has a similar prestige, cost of training, and hoped-for eventual income) which also puts 70-100k of student loan debt on students, but as soon as they finish medical school they're almost guaranteed a job earning ~$70k a year (in NZL too - so no interest on the student loan.) In an age when the norm is to go to university and get a degree (and incur a reasonable amount of student loan debt) the fact that you end up with a much larger student loan isn't as offputting as the realistic struggle to find decent-paying work as a fresh CPL holder with 200 hours - moving all around the country to find work, or in some cases straight up going offshore.

Let's not forget that a past government introduced the funding restriction on aviation courses in response to "low repayment rates" from grads - and considering that student loan repayments are automatically deducted from wages in NZL, it logically points to the lack of gainful employment in-country for fresh CPL holders. So the issue of getting a job after CPL is the root cause of the current funding restrictions on getting CPLs.

I speak from some personal experience here, having been quite interested in a flying career back at high school. Back then you could get your CPL/MEIR/ATPL credits all on the student loan no worries (can probably even put your Basic Turbine Knowledge course on the student loan?), but I was still put off by the employment gap - back then the requirement to be considered for Eagle was something like 1500-2000hrs, and I really found myself having to think hard about how I was going to get that required experience and support myself financially. In the wake of the 2008 GFC, with pilots being out of work across the globe, it didn't take much for my parents (who were dead-set against flying) to talk me out of it. Then to add insult to injury, they sent me to medical school because my mother always wanted to do medicine but her father refused to allow it (this was China in the 1980s where parents signed your forms so that was the end of that,) so she wanted to live vicariously through me. 4.5 years and 70k on the student loan later I finally had enough, rebelled, and took up my second-choice career as a bus driver (as in city buses, not the Airbus.)

Since my time looking at aviation lots of things have changed - the funding restriction for pilot courses, the global market recovery, and local growth all contributed to a different supply/demand picture; but a fundamental gap still exists in NZL between training and actual airline employment. It's well and good to be discussing the restrictive funding issue on the student loan's part, but there's no point relaxing the funding (and pay for people to get their CPLs then go work at McDonalds) until such time that there is a structured programme finding actual placements for new CPL holders (rather than the vague promise of "oh there'll be a job for you out there, probably") to gain the experience they need and send them to Air NZ in a steady, controlled fashion.

With medicine we have a matchmaking system, where all the final year med students put in preferences for their preferred cities/DHBs and the DHBs can then review applications and hire the applicants they want; the House Officers (entry-level junior doctor) and Registrars (middle-level doctors in some stage of specialty training) have fixed terms - 3-month runs in each specialty for House Officers and 6-month runs for Registrars, employment renews in November each year when some will move on and new ones join. Just daydreaming but I'd like to imagine a similar structure for aviation - flight school grads get matched with entry-level employment partners (commercial GA operators, flight schools looking for instructors, perhaps even the small fry carriers) and serve a fixed 2-3 year employment before they get taken up by NZ Link into turboprops, who eventually move them on internally to jets. I think a steady structure where you know where you're at and how long to go would be really appealing - compared to the current mad rush for entry-level jobs and constant lookout for jet-flying jobs (even those on the other side of the world) because you don't know when/if another opportunity will arise.
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:13 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Common sense says who'll pay for it? If the infrastructure was there aka AMZ, then i'd be excited for it and it could have potential but the fact it'll cost over $50M to be ready means it's a no goer ...

I agree. I note that it's not unheard of for airlines to sponsor aviation infrastructure like this - for example, AFAIK, PG developed, constructed, owns and runs USM, and FR have offered to do so for part of DUB's infrastructure. Nothing in AKL or New Zealand would have the scale of either of those, though. What about the development of heliports or seaplane ports, closer to the Shore and/or CBD, connecting with AKL in Mangere and elsewhere? I think that these have potential.

Cheers,

C.


NZ: Won't be interested and were clear on that with Whenuapai
JQ: Won't want to invest this much in NZ I don't believe.
3C: Don't have the money
Other airlines: Don't have the money

The runway is 745m long x 8m wide, you'd need double that for A320 plus apron. ILS and a tower, emergency response etc.... you could build a terminal for $10-$20m

Realistic I'd say $50-$100m plus on-going costs.

Cna't see any airline will for fork out that and the "Super City" has you covered till you reach Welsford.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:28 am

NZ6 wrote:
NZ: Won't be interested and were clear on that with Whenuapai
JQ: Won't want to invest this much in NZ I don't believe.
3C: Don't have the money
Other airlines: Don't have the money

I (almost) wouldn't run something crazy like this past JB with VA / TT :lol:.

In all seriousness, I agree though - it's not going to happen here in AKL.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:28 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
The only way I can see this working is if 3C subleases or operates services on behalf of someone like DHL, TOLL, NZ Post etc

With the development of their NLK service, might they increase the utilization of the jet(s) by adding new routes? For example, I'm not sure how the IUE subsidy works, but could they win that from NZ? Or, could they develop flights to other under-developed island-based communities (which they're familiar with), like AIT, PPG or SON? I'm only talking about a low-frequency, perhaps seasonal, service. Though, it seems more likely that they'll just keep them to CHT, and perhaps NLK.

Cheers,

C.


Depends were they want to be in 10 years I guess. I feel this is going away from where they're strengths are and what's allowed them to be successful. They're putting a lot of capital investment into WAG, WHK and now PPQ. Reporting good patronage (which we don't formally know if that's equaling good revenue) - their basic revenue management model can be worked out fairly easily though. You just need to have confidence in how many their carrying and the good estimate on operating cost.

Do they need to expand into 737-400 market? I'd much rather they replace the the 5 x Convair with something like an older ATR, even if one two were set up for freight only.

I also think there's an opportunity for 3C to hub ex NPE to CHT? also allowing AKL-NPE, WLG-NPE and CHC-NPE services and opening the door to more regional NZ flying.

I'd need to explore where this fish is going? can it be sent ex the port of Napier?

Let's not forget Origin Pacific was successful ex NPE for a long time.

Image
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:38 am

NZ6 wrote:
I'd much rather ... ATR.

NZ6 wrote:
Do they need to expand into 737-400 market?

The local fishing industry in CHT is currently operating at a level that is consistent with the constraints imposed by air transport. This constraint is not a new issue and has been flagged in previous studies going back more than a decade. The CV 580 is unable to unlock growth. The 737 combi is the most practical option "because of capital cost considerations as well as the limited freight capability of the ATR." In fact, the ATR would be even more costly annually than operating the existing CV 580, let alone the 737 combi.

You should have a read of this study - see: https://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-N ... 9570615f96.

NZ6 wrote:
I also think there's an opportunity for 3C to hub ex NPE to CHT?

I don't see this - NPE is already an extremely competitive regional market, with both JQ and NZ. Going head-to-head is not in 3C's nature. Further, they don't actually need to hub - they already successfully fill all of their non-stop AKL, WLG and CHC flights. One interesting point though is whether they might open PPQ - CHT, at the expense of WLG - CHT - lower landing fees and potentially improved frequencies from AKL through 3C's new AKL - PPQ flight. That being said, I don't know if the CV 580 could do PPQ flights.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:59 am

With VA now launching HBA - PER, that leaves AKL as the biggest city regionally without an air link to HBA - do people think that it's realistic to expect that such a service will be established in the next five years by NZ, despite the QF deal?

See: https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3408
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:03 am

NZ's decision to offer the 'impossible' burger (with no meat) in-flight has seen backlash from politicians including Nathan Guy (who previously criticized NZ over PPQ), and Winston Peters.

... Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters says Air New Zealand should be the meat industry's number one marketer.

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farmin ... i-red-meat.

I don't see this as an issue, to be honest (though I appreciate that others might see differently). NZ can offer both New Zealand meat products in-flight, as well as other alternative choices.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:17 am

Speaking of 3C and CHT, it's great to see a short little piece in the NZ in-flight magazine this month on 3C's operations (see page 92 of the Kia Ora magazine - July 2018).

The piece says "New destinations are on the horizon with two new Saab aircraft coming into the fleet this year." Aside from PPQ, could they be looking at anywhere else?

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:46 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I'd much rather ... ATR.

NZ6 wrote:
Do they need to expand into 737-400 market?

The local fishing industry in CHT is currently operating at a level that is consistent with the constraints imposed by air transport. This constraint is not a new issue and has been flagged in previous studies going back more than a decade. The CV 580 is unable to unlock growth. The 737 combi is the most practical option "because of capital cost considerations as well as the limited freight capability of the ATR." In fact, the ATR would be even more costly annually than operating the existing CV 580, let alone the 737 combi.

You should have a read of this study - see: https://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-N ... 9570615f96.

Cheers,

C.


I'm not that interested in CHT to read 51 pages. I'll take your word for it. Can't wait to see the 737 in Air Chatham colors. Exactly when is this happening?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:51 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I also think there's an opportunity for 3C to hub ex NPE to CHT?

I don't see this - NPE is already an extremely competitive regional market, with both JQ and NZ. Going head-to-head is not in 3C's nature. Further, they don't actually need to hub - they already successfully fill all of their non-stop AKL, WLG and CHC flights. One interesting point though is whether they might open PPQ - CHT, at the expense of WLG - CHT - lower landing fees and potentially improved frequencies from AKL through 3C's new AKL - PPQ flight. That being said, I don't know if the CV 580 could do PPQ flights.

Cheers,

C.


It was nothing more than just creative thinking allowing 3C to centralize their CHT operations while also allowing the use of an existing sea port on the 'mainland'. Also moving into more 'mainland' passengers operations. Far out - you are so incredibly opinionated and know how to kill a conversation with it to the point were your view is always the right view even when you have half the information.

No wonder people get fed up with it.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:56 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
The only way I can see this working is if 3C subleases or operates services on behalf of someone like DHL, TOLL, NZ Post etc

With the development of their NLK service, might they increase the utilization of the jet(s) by adding new routes? For example, I'm not sure how the IUE subsidy works, but could they win that from NZ? Or, could they develop flights to other under-developed island-based communities (which they're familiar with), like AIT, PPG or SON? I'm only talking about a low-frequency, perhaps seasonal, service. Though, it seems more likely that they'll just keep them to CHT, and perhaps NLK.

Cheers,

C.


Probably there best option would be if they could get there hands on AS old 734 combi's, with only 72 passenger seats they would probably be an good for some of these routes although some would need to be Island hoppers e.g probably can't do AKL-AIT non-stop.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:12 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Gasman wrote:
While the worldwide demand for pilots is going stratospheric, there remains especially in this country a massive void between obtaining a CPL and an actual job in the right hand seat of a major carrier.

Is the issue with getting a job after getting a CPL, or with getting a CPL in the first place? IMO, the big issue is the latter - that is, getting a CPL. AFAIK, the cost is huge, and not all of it can be sourced through a student loan? Even if it can be, there's a huge debt hanging over your shoulders that you wouldn't have in other professions - this is a huge turn-off to prospective pilot trainees. If NZ won't set up a pilot academy, it'd be great to see them maybe establish some scholarships at the least, for deserving candidates?

C.

The hardest part is going from CPL to getting a job for sure. There are really only 4 ways of getting an airline job in NZ: 1) Have lots money and do it yourself. 2) Become an instructor. 3) Strike it lucky and get into a small operator (like Great Barrier or Coast Guard etc). 4) Air Force.
For the majority option 2 is the main method. Instructing in GA is a giant pyramid scheme. For each instructor you need to have about 10 students. So you might get 2 out of 10 making it through while the other 8 have just wasted a lot of time, effort and money to get nowhere due to lack of jobs to go further.
57 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:14 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Gasman wrote:
While the worldwide demand for pilots is going stratospheric, there remains especially in this country a massive void between obtaining a CPL and an actual job in the right hand seat of a major carrier.

Is the issue with getting a job after getting a CPL, or with getting a CPL in the first place? IMO, the big issue is the latter - that is, getting a CPL.

I disagree. Getting a CPL is (relatively) easy. You turn up, pay the money (about $80,000) and do it. It's certainly at least partially fundable with a student loan; but unlike other tertiary courses it can be done in the context of full time employment elsewhere. Sure, not exactly a walk in the park; but when has getting one's life/career established from scratch ever been?

But from there, it's a collection of maybes. Getting an instructor's job is not a given, and it's barely an income. Positions for smaller operators like Great Barrier are very hard to come by; and in any case they look for more experience than a bare CPL. Unfortunately, at that point in one's career, the likelihood of it being a big waste of time (and money) is greater than not.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:21 pm

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I'd much rather ... ATR.

NZ6 wrote:
Do they need to expand into 737-400 market?

The local fishing industry in CHT is currently operating at a level that is consistent with the constraints imposed by air transport. This constraint is not a new issue and has been flagged in previous studies going back more than a decade. The CV 580 is unable to unlock growth. The 737 combi is the most practical option "because of capital cost considerations as well as the limited freight capability of the ATR." In fact, the ATR would be even more costly annually than operating the existing CV 580, let alone the 737 combi.

You should have a read of this study - see: https://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-N ... 9570615f96.

Cheers,

C.


I'm not that interested in CHT to read 51 pages. I'll take your word for it. Can't wait to see the 737 in Air Chatham colors. Exactly when is this happening?


I had a read of this while traveling on the bus to work this morning - should I say skim read some of it.

So first of all, this is 2 old. There's no mention of any significant passenger increase and while residents of the Chathams travel more the those on the mainland their's only 700 residents over there.

Tourism is hardly worth a mention.

I don't know enough fact about the fishing industry nor the freight industry. What I do know though is this; money can be made where there is export demand for fresh and highly sought after perishable goods. So for example; some fish species don't have high demand in markets like of Asia so importers won't pay as much. Therefore the cost of sending it quickly via air and keeping it fresh costs more than the market is willing to pay for it, so that stuff gets frozen and sent via ship.

The likes of Salmon ex Nelson get's sent direct into AKL and the onto Asia the same day. It's then found on the plate at a high end restaurant somewhere in Asia within 48 hours of being pulled out of the sea.

Do we know where the likes of Paua and Crayfish are being sent? - I don't! however I could do some digging with the Cargo contacts to see if it's going out to Asia.

I don't dispute this is valuable but the questions are.

1) How much can they process in a particular time period and also keep it fresh?
* There are 700 residents over there - not all are in the fishing industry. How many people does it take to produce the volume required for a 737?
* How large is the processing plant over there?
* If another is built or expanded are their people there to employee and work?
* Is there infrastructure there to accommodate people moving there to work?
2) Is this fishing via controlled breading (cages etc) or wild catch (probably a better industry term however my point is, this obviously impacts reliability of catch and sustainability).
3) Are other freight operators circling?
* What's the business risks as it goes... what if another operated entered?
4) How much can be caught and brought direct into 'mainland' for processing?
* If this isn't allowed due to some regulation now - are the fishing industry trying to change this?
5) How much do they need to process and send to the main via air for export for a 737
* We know how much they currently carry and how much the can carry on a 734 but what's the break even number and how does this stack up against point 1.
6) Does export mean export Chathams or export New Zealand?

As I said I don't know much about this industry - it's not my passion and I'm not saying it wont' happen or can't work. All I'm saying is I'm struggling to see how it's even close to being feasible based on....

- Can enough fresh / live seafood be produced ex Chathams to fill a 737-400 enough times to make the aircraft utilization high enough to make the operations sustainable. This is based on the significant and immediate increase in required freight tonnage based on current data and current low frequency of services.

- Is there are high business risks that other freight operators could enter and compete in the market once an established high producing production plant is running.

I don't want this topic to become bigger than Bem Hur - it's no skin of my nose if they flew a A380 there and in fact I would love to see a 737 in 3C colour, it would be a sexy aircraft. I'm just keen on the economic side of things and can't work out how its doable.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:31 am

Gasman wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Gasman wrote:
While the worldwide demand for pilots is going stratospheric, there remains especially in this country a massive void between obtaining a CPL and an actual job in the right hand seat of a major carrier.

Is the issue with getting a job after getting a CPL, or with getting a CPL in the first place? IMO, the big issue is the latter - that is, getting a CPL.

Getting a CPL is (relatively) easy. You turn up, pay the money (about $80,000) and do it. It's certainly at least partially fundable with a student loan; but unlike other tertiary courses it can be done in the context of full time employment elsewhere.

According to some, the numbers have surged, and it's actually $100,000 to $120,000 for a CPL now. AFAIK, a student loan can cover ~$35,000 per EFTS of that, to a maximum of $45,000 - $70,000 [someone correct me if I'm wrong on those figures], but can you really fund the additional amount overall, by full-time work, on top of full-time CPL study? That's a huge amount! For a Diploma in Aviation, it's worse - CTC charges $136,000 for it. As a result of the funding and pricing changes, six years ago, the country produced 241 graduates with CPL's, while in 2016, there were (supposedly) only 120 (according to Grant Bradley's article).

See:
- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=11879758.
- https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/04/06/1 ... cellations.
- https://www.studylink.govt.nz/about-stu ... .html#null.
- http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1404/S ... ainees.htm.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:49 am

NZ6 wrote:
Do we know where the likes of Paua and Crayfish are being sent? Is this fishing via controlled breading (cages etc) or wild catch (probably a better industry term however my point is, this obviously impacts reliability of catch and sustainability).

Perhaps you could do some research and answer these fishing-specific questions yourself? At the end of the day, 3C have already crunched the numbers themselves, with information we don't have, and say that they can make a go of it. Therefore, I suggest we don't delve into all of your questions on the economics of the fishing industry, which aren't really aviation-related.

For me, the bigger and more interesting question - which is what was originally raised - is whether or not the government will come to the table and fund the required developments at CHT for the 3C 737 scheme to happen, particularly given that the costs of doing so have significantly increased. The NZ First 'Regional Development Fund' could be used, but I guess, will it?

Interestingly, there is a degree of urgency on this - there needs to be investment into the airport to meet aviation requirements that will come into play in 2019. For example, there is a need to upgrade the navigation equipment to improve access in adverse weather conditions. Strengthening or resealing of the runway is also required, given potential safety buffer requirements.

See: http://www.cic.govt.nz/wp-content/uploa ... r-2017.pdf.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:50 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Do we know where the likes of Paua and Crayfish are being sent? Is this fishing via controlled breading (cages etc) or wild catch (probably a better industry term however my point is, this obviously impacts reliability of catch and sustainability).

Perhaps you could do some research and answer these fishing-specific questions yourself? At the end of the day, 3C have already crunched the numbers themselves, with information we don't have, and say that they can make a go of it. Therefore, I suggest we don't delve into all of your questions on the economics of the fishing industry, which aren't really aviation-related.

For me, the bigger and more interesting question - which is what was originally raised - is whether or not the government will come to the table and fund the required developments at CHT for the 3C 737 scheme to happen, particularly given that the costs of doing so have significantly increased. The NZ First 'Regional Development Fund' could be used, but I guess, will it?

Interestingly, there is a degree of urgency on this - there needs to be investment into the airport to meet aviation requirements that will come into play in 2019. For example, there is a need to upgrade the navigation equipment to improve access in adverse weather conditions. Strengthening or resealing of the runway is also required, given potential safety buffer requirements.

See: http://www.cic.govt.nz/wp-content/uploa ... r-2017.pdf.

Cheers,

C.


Well I guess if 3C think they can make a go of it - then they will probably need to prove that to someone and reasonably publicly if they want the government to invest in infrastructure! Also how will it be upgraded and to what standard? 3C can make a go of it with at 737 but is that the best investment to the entire New Zealand.

Is this about having a 737 or about the best economics for New Zealand and Air Chathams?

While yes I could research the fishing industry I simply don't have the time nor will it change my outcome. There's a max of 6 peak services to mainland New Zealand with a much smaller aircraft and that's assuming all services are carrying fresh seafood.

What do they plan to do with this aircraft off peak and for the rest of the year?

How 3C believe they can go from that to a much more expensive to operate 737-400 is beyond me.

I also believe the'll be a more economical freight aircraft out there which will be cheaper to run.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:35 am

NZ6 wrote:
Well I guess if 3C think they can make a go of it - then they will probably need to prove that to someone and reasonably publicly if they want the government to invest in infrastructure!

Incorrect - selling the case for this falls down to the owners of the airport, the Chatham Islands Enterprise Trust (CIET), who already have procured and released a 51 page economic assessment of CHT's options. This does not fall on 3C, though 3C have contributed to the report as to why the 737 combi is the best option, and why, for them, a runway extension may be needed. That you haven't bothered to read and/or aren't convinced of the assessment is your issue - not CIET's; CIET's job is to sell this proposal to the government first, and not to members of the public. Further, that you aren't convinced of 3C's analysis of its fleet options is your issue - not 3C's; 3C is a privately owned company, and obviously is entitled to a degree of commercial sensitivity around its growth, just as you regularly afford NZ.

NZ6 wrote:
While yes I could research the fishing industry I simply don't have the time nor will it change my outcome.

Then don't ask questions about crayfish and 'controlled breeding'?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:38 am

NZ has slammed the "ravages of airport pricing behaviour" in New Zealand in support of changes to the Commerce Act, it says would help curb airport owners' charging and cut air travel costs for passengers.

It'll be interesting to see where this heads ... :scratchchin:

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12083587.

Cheers,

C.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:44 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ has slammed the "ravages of airport pricing behaviour" in New Zealand in support of changes to the Commerce Act, it says would help curb airport owners' charging and cut air travel costs for passengers.

It'll be interesting to see where this heads ... :scratchchin:

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12083587.

Cheers,

C.

Coming from NZ this statement really, really is a bit rich:

He said infrastructure investment by the airport owners, specifically Auckland International Airport, has not kept up and the benefits have accrued to shareholders, not to travellers

So the company that fleeced the bejesus out of AKL-LAX for as long as it could, that gave us 10 abreast on a 777 now sheds some crocodile tears on behalf of the poor hapless traveler.
Last edited by Gasman on Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:45 am

FJ is keeping one of its older 738's for a few years, which means that its New Zealand flights may not all get seatback IFE in Y from next year, as originally promised. Here's hoping that the 738 is dedicated to shorter flights like NAN - APW / TBU and not regularly subbed on NAN - AKL / WLG / CHC.

See: https://blueswandaily.com/fiji-airways- ... ntroduced/.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:56 am

Tasmania is targeting AKL flights now, after VA launched HBA - PER yesterday.

... flights to Auckland are next on the tourism industry’s agenda ...

Would NZ's new QF deal act as a large barrier to such a flight being launched?

See: https://www.themercury.com.au/business/ ... 4b09b898cb.

Cheers,

C.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:57 am

planemanofnz wrote:
FJ is keeping one of its older 738's for a few years, which means that its New Zealand flights may not all get seatback IFE in Y from next year, as originally promised. Here's hoping that the 738 is dedicated to shorter flights like NAN - APW / TBU and not regularly subbed on NAN - AKL / WLG / CHC.

See: https://blueswandaily.com/fiji-airways- ... ntroduced/.

Cheers,

C.

Is the industry moving away from seatback IFE anyway? I haven't engaged it for a few years now, unless I'm in EK J or F with a glorious large HD screen. Otherwise, nah. The bacteria mixed in with that greasy film covering your average screen in Y would frighten the most hardened microbiologist. I don't want to watch Dirty Harry that much. Pre-downloading content from Netflix/Amazon/Google works way better for me.
 
duff
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:58 am

For those who are put off by the lack of job certainty and the costs associated with being a pilot... boo hoo.

I paid for it on my own back (worked 3 jobs) and knocked on countless doors until I got my first paid flying job. I then moved my way up in the traditional manner and had a great deal of fun in the process.

Point is, if you truly want it enough (and I mean truly, not doing it because it looks like it will be a bit of fun) you can make it happen.

I’m getting really sick of the whingers out there who expect things to happen for them and approach any obstacle with a defeatist attitude.

Rant over
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:01 am

duff wrote:
For those who are put off by the lack of job certainty and the costs associated with being a pilot... boo hoo. I paid for it on my own back (worked 3 jobs) and knocked on countless doors until I got my first paid flying job. I then moved my way up in the traditional manner and had a great deal of fun in the process.

Good on you - admirable! Though, it's still valid to ask whether or not it needs to be or should be that tough for everyone, especially when compared with other industries.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:31 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Well I guess if 3C think they can make a go of it - then they will probably need to prove that to someone and reasonably publicly if they want the government to invest in infrastructure!

Incorrect - selling the case for this falls down to the owners of the airport, the Chatham Islands Enterprise Trust (CIET), who already have procured and released a 51 page economic assessment of CHT's options. This does not fall on 3C, though 3C have contributed to the report as to why the 737 combi is the best option, and why, for them, a runway extension may be needed. That you haven't bothered to read and/or aren't convinced of the assessment is your issue - not CIET's; CIET's job is to sell this proposal to the government first, and not to members of the public. Further, that you aren't convinced of 3C's analysis of its fleet options is your issue - not 3C's; 3C is a privately owned company, and obviously is entitled to a degree of commercial sensitivity around its growth, just as you regularly afford NZ.

NZ6 wrote:
While yes I could research the fishing industry I simply don't have the time nor will it change my outcome.

Then don't ask questions about crayfish and 'controlled breeding'?

Cheers,

C.


Incorrect - If 3C wants the airport to be capable for 737 operations and they want government funding they'll need to prove it's viable and worth the investment.

Re Crayfish - every heard of a rhetorical question? Just remember this is a forum for everyone, I was merely raising points for consideration after already stating I don't know this industry well. If you prefer to just tell us what we should know this this probably isn't the arena. Please tone down you messages and it's a shared forum and i'm sure other users are getting entirely sick of reading about this topic and last of all you don't have the full information either.

We'll leave it as you are right and any other opinion or thought on this topic it is wrong.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:37 am

NZ6 wrote:
Incorrect - If 3C wants the airport to be capable for 737 operations and they want government funding they'll need to prove it's viable and worth the investment.

Irregardless of whether it's their job to prove its viable or not, 3C already have, by contributing to CIET's economic assessment report, which you haven't bothered to, and won't, read. It might not be what you want to hear, or what aligns with your views - like, how a 737 combi is more economical than an ATR - but the analysis is there. No doubt, the government is considering CHT's case as we speak.

NZ6 wrote:
Re Crayfish - every heard of a rhetorical question? Just remember this is a forum for everyone, I was merely raising points for consideration ...

Irregardless of whether it's rhetorical or not, it's off-topic - it's not aviation-related. End of.

Cheers,

C.
 
duff
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:48 am

Sorry but in the current climate there is nothing tough about getting an airline job. There are opportunities aplenty for those that work for it. Sure, it can be little difficult to bridge the gap between CPL and first job but all it takes is a little research. Its basic supply and demand. If the airlines are hiring, the GA operators and flying schools are hiring. Its simply a matter of positioning yourself to take the next vacant slot. My colleagues and I all did it and those getting the jobs now are doing it. The difference between the 'haves' and the 'have-nots' is that the 'haves' wanted it badly enough.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:55 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Incorrect - If 3C wants the airport to be capable for 737 operations and they want government funding they'll need to prove it's viable and worth the investment.

Irregardless of whether it's their job to prove its viable or not, 3C already have, by contributing to CIET's economic assessment report, which you haven't bothered to, and won't, read. It might not be what you want to hear, or what aligns with your views - like, how a 737 combi is more economical than an ATR - but the analysis is there. No doubt, the government is considering CHT's case as we speak.

NZ6 wrote:
Re Crayfish - every heard of a rhetorical question? Just remember this is a forum for everyone, I was merely raising points for consideration ...

Irregardless of whether it's rhetorical or not, it's off-topic - it's not aviation-related. End of.

Cheers,

C.


In your opinion, however in mine it's all completely relevant as the report you posted highlights that the industry is largely what keeps 3C in business. You also raised the point of 3C having a desire of up-gauging to a 737.

So on topic - how does 3C make this work? Given my background I crunched some numbers... ends up negative big time!

So I decide to consider how this could work seeing as 3C believe it can. Looking at these industries is comparable to how the passenger deck works with travel agents sell seats and as stated numerous times it's not my area of expertise so raised rhetorical questions. If you don't want to discuss it openly don't respond. Others may want to add their thoughts. Don't just shoot it down because you don't agree.

Now - for the everyone's benefit please just let it go the topic has now well and truly been killed.
 
Mr AirNZ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:33 am

Zkpilot wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Gasman wrote:
While the worldwide demand for pilots is going stratospheric, there remains especially in this country a massive void between obtaining a CPL and an actual job in the right hand seat of a major carrier.

Is the issue with getting a job after getting a CPL, or with getting a CPL in the first place? IMO, the big issue is the latter - that is, getting a CPL. AFAIK, the cost is huge, and not all of it can be sourced through a student loan? Even if it can be, there's a huge debt hanging over your shoulders that you wouldn't have in other professions - this is a huge turn-off to prospective pilot trainees. If NZ won't set up a pilot academy, it'd be great to see them maybe establish some scholarships at the least, for deserving candidates?

C.

The hardest part is going from CPL to getting a job for sure. There are really only 4 ways of getting an airline job in NZ: 1) Have lots money and do it yourself. 2) Become an instructor. 3) Strike it lucky and get into a small operator (like Great Barrier or Coast Guard etc). 4) Air Force.
For the majority option 2 is the main method. Instructing in GA is a giant pyramid scheme. For each instructor you need to have about 10 students. So you might get 2 out of 10 making it through while the other 8 have just wasted a lot of time, effort and money to get nowhere due to lack of jobs to go further.

I think many in the industry will know exactly which flying school your "pyramid scheme" relates to. What you describe is true there but vastly different at other organisations across New Zealand. I have never encouraged anyone to utilise the services of the organisation I suspect you are talking about. It has made the owner a lot of money but is widely derided across the industry as a "sausage factory." That said, that is in no way reflective of the quality of the training or the end result of the pilot and I have meet many many very competent individuals who have both trained and worked at said establishment.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1177
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:40 am

duff wrote:
For those who are put off by the lack of job certainty and the costs associated with being a pilot... boo hoo.

I paid for it on my own back (worked 3 jobs) and knocked on countless doors until I got my first paid flying job. I then moved my way up in the traditional manner and had a great deal of fun in the process.

Point is, if you truly want it enough (and I mean truly, not doing it because it looks like it will be a bit of fun) you can make it happen.

I’m getting really sick of the whingers out there who expect things to happen for them and approach any obstacle with a defeatist attitude.

Rant over

I think we're looking at this just from the point of view of the potential pilot. If, however, it is getting harder to fill pilot vacancies (as indeed it is in Australia with 737 pilots being in very short supply) then it's a matter for the airlines themselves to figure out how to move forward. It may be that it's in their interests to contribute to pilot training in some way (scholarships, bonding, whatever) to ensure an adequate ongoing supply. I think I'd become a whinger, too, if I was expected to take on a $100k-plus debt without any reasonable assurance of a job at the end of it. How many young people can realistically afford to do that?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1177
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:47 am

Re 3C and the Chathams: I think we're assuming that what's good for Air Chathams is also good for the Chatham Islands and New Zealand as a whole. It may be that an ATR doesn't have as good economics as a 734 hauling cargo over the range that CHT involves - I think I'd expect that. But whether it's good for New Zealand to put that investment into CHT is quite another matter. If CIET have done a report on this then that's a step, yes, but it's really only a first feasibility study for a multi-million dollar development, and history is littered with feasibility studies that ended up going nowhere at all. So I'm not holding my breath (and I don't think that 3C should hold its collective breath either).
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:54 am

DavidByrne wrote:
duff wrote:
For those who are put off by the lack of job certainty and the costs associated with being a pilot... boo hoo.

I paid for it on my own back (worked 3 jobs) and knocked on countless doors until I got my first paid flying job. I then moved my way up in the traditional manner and had a great deal of fun in the process.

Point is, if you truly want it enough (and I mean truly, not doing it because it looks like it will be a bit of fun) you can make it happen.

I’m getting really sick of the whingers out there who expect things to happen for them and approach any obstacle with a defeatist attitude.

Rant over

I think we're looking at this just from the point of view of the potential pilot. If, however, it is getting harder to fill pilot vacancies (as indeed it is in Australia with 737 pilots being in very short supply) then it's a matter for the airlines themselves to figure out how to move forward. It may be that it's in their interests to contribute to pilot training in some way (scholarships, bonding, whatever) to ensure an adequate ongoing supply. I think I'd become a whinger, too, if I was expected to take on a $100k-plus debt without any reasonable assurance of a job at the end of it. How many young people can realistically afford to do that?


How does the employee repay the airline? - I mean QF or NZ takes on someone with CPL or even PPL under contract, gets them to the flight deck of a A320/737. How much has that cost the airline and how does the airline recover those costs? Contact the employee for a fixed period of time? There's nothing really stopping that employee from walking out after say 5 years.

I'm not saying they shouldn't do anything - I'm just not sure how.
 
duff
Posts: 115
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2001 10:29 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:57 am

DavidByrne

QF is having problems with a lack of 737 pilots due to pi$$ poor planning on their part. There had been no recruitment for years and suddenly they find they need people. Problem is, they are having to increase the training infrastructure to cope with the shortage which takes time. Plenty of potential pilots available to fly the 737. Just no trainers and training slots to do it.

Who's asking anyone to borrow 100k? If you want to knock it all out quickly then go for it but be aware of the risks (medical event, another GFC). Why not work for a few years, save some money and reduce your exposure to debt.
Last edited by duff on Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
decry
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:26 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:01 am

ch-aviation has a paywalled article regarding tasman cargo airlines adding a widebody in q3 2018... g-dhlh a 6 year old 767F arrived in AKL this week. Any ideas if its replacing the 757 or added capacity?
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1177
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:12 am

duff wrote:
DavidByrne

QF is having problems with a lack of 737 pilots due to pi$$ poor planning on their part. There had been no recruitment for years and suddenly they find they need people. Problem is, they are having to increase the training infrastructure to cope with the shortage which takes time. Plenty of potential pilots available to fly the 737. Just no trainers and training slots to do it.

Who's asking anyone to borrow 100k? If you want to knock it all out quickly then go for it but be aware of the risks (medical event, another GFC). Why not work for a few years, save some money and reduce your exposure to debt.

I think the point is that there is a global shortage of pilots, and the airlines may need to be more creative and proactive than they have been to the present if they want to continue to keep all their planes in the air. That could include measures that make it more attractive to potential pilots to get into training. There are many other industries where employers actively participate in employees’ basic training - it’s certainly an option for the aviation industry, surely?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
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