I'd much rather ... ATR.
Do they need to expand into 737-400 market?
The local fishing industry in CHT is currently operating at a level that is consistent with the constraints imposed by air transport. This constraint is not a new issue and has been flagged in previous studies going back more than a decade. The CV 580 is unable to unlock growth. The 737 combi is the most practical option "because of capital cost considerations as well as the limited freight capability of the ATR." In fact, the ATR would be even more costly annually than operating the existing CV 580, let alone the 737 combi.
You should have a read of this study - see: https://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-N ... 9570615f96
I'm not that interested in CHT to read 51 pages. I'll take your word for it. Can't wait to see the 737 in Air Chatham colors. Exactly when is this happening?
I had a read of this while traveling on the bus to work this morning - should I say skim
So first of all, this is 2 old. There's no mention of any significant passenger increase and while residents of the Chathams travel more the those on the mainland their's only 700 residents over there.
Tourism is hardly worth a mention.
I don't know enough fact
about the fishing industry nor the freight industry. What I do know though is this; money can be made where there is export
demand for fresh and highly sought after perishable goods. So for example; some fish species don't have high demand in markets like of Asia so importers won't pay as much. Therefore the cost of sending it quickly via air and keeping it fresh costs more than the market is willing to pay for it, so that stuff gets frozen and sent via ship.
The likes of Salmon ex Nelson get's sent direct into AKL and the onto Asia the same day. It's then found on the plate at a high end restaurant somewhere in Asia within 48 hours of being pulled out of the sea.
Do we know where the likes of Paua and Crayfish are being sent? - I don't! however I could do some digging with the Cargo contacts to see if it's going out to Asia.
I don't dispute this is valuable but the questions are.
1) How much can they process in a particular time period and also keep it fresh?
* There are 700 residents over there - not all are in the fishing industry. How many people does it take to produce the volume required for a 737?
* How large is the processing plant over there?
* If another is built or expanded are their people there to employee and work?
* Is there infrastructure there to accommodate people moving there to work?
2) Is this fishing via controlled breading (cages etc) or wild catch (probably a better industry term however my point is, this obviously impacts reliability of catch and sustainability).
3) Are other freight operators circling?
* What's the business risks as it goes... what if another operated entered?
4) How much can be caught and brought direct into 'mainland' for processing?
* If this isn't allowed due to some regulation now - are the fishing industry trying to change this?
5) How much do they need to process and send to the main via air for export for a 737
* We know how much they currently carry and how much the can carry on a 734 but what's the break even number and how does this stack up against point 1.
6) Does export mean export Chathams or export New Zealand?
As I said I don't know much about this industry - it's not my passion and I'm not saying it wont' happen or can't work. All I'm saying is I'm struggling to see how it's even close to being feasible based on....
- Can enough fresh / live seafood be produced ex Chathams to fill a 737-400 enough times to make the aircraft utilization high enough to make the operations sustainable. This is based on the significant and immediate increase in required freight tonnage based on current data and current low frequency of services.
- Is there are high business risks that other freight operators could enter and compete in the market once an established high producing production plant is running.
I don't want this topic to become bigger than Bem Hur - it's no skin of my nose if they flew a A380 there and in fact I would love to see a 737 in 3C colour, it would be a sexy aircraft. I'm just keen on the economic side of things and can't work out how its doable.