Flying-Tiger
Topic Author
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Window Of Opportunity?

Fri Mar 08, 2002 11:49 pm

With regards to this topic (http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/758314 ; When Starting Airline System, What To Look For...?) I came up with the question:

Has Sep 11th created an opportunity for new airlines? Many large carrier have drastically cut back, both domestic and long-haul services, some have went out of business. Routes have been "freed" up, often because the equipment employed before Sep 11th (B737-200,300,700, F100, A319) is now by far too big an scope clauses limit the use of small regional jets.

My point of view is that we will see a number of new carrier starting point-to-point flights in the next 12-18 months with equipment smaller then 100 seats, most of them in Europe and the USA, to a limited number in Canada and Asia. Maybe in Australia, too, but there the consolidation process has only recently begun.

I´ve prepared a small list of rumoured start-ups, maybe this can prove my point of view:

Millenium Airlines (Italy) with Avro RJ
Speedair (Sweden) with CRJ700
Intersky (Switzerland) with Dash 8-300
Undisclosed airline (Malaysia) with two ATR 72-200
Norcanair Airlines (Canada) with Metros
Jet Netherlands (Netherlands) with F100

Unfortunately I´ve no update about potential start-ups in the US, maybe someone else can provide some info here? What do you think?

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
Airbus Lover
Posts: 3163
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2000 10:29 pm

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 12:13 am

Hello flying tiger.

Where did you hear that an undisclosed airline is to start up in Malaysia? I will say it has government support. it is not so easy to get license in malaysia. monopoly ...

Have more details? Thanks.
 
petertenthije
Posts: 3256
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 12:41 am

And when you are answering that question, could you please reveal some more about Jet Netherlands? I have not heard anything about this airline before on any website, Dutch, English or other.
Attamottamotta!
 
Tango-Bravo
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RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 12:44 am

There is indeed a window of opportunity for soundly-managed, adequately capitalized airline startups in North America and Europe wherever freedom is allowed to offer new services without the imposition of undue or artificial or arbitrary or protectionist barriers to competition. The opportunity -- and profit-making potential -- is not in the so-called "full-service" model and/or entangling alliances with other airlines, nor is it in operating advanced turboprop and/or regional jet types IMO.

The opportunity IMO -- based on real-world experience -- is in responding to the still largely untapped reservoir of demand for basic all-coach "no frills" service with 100-150 pax types on short- to medium-haul sectors at fares that make sense (vs. the unpredictable nonsense that prevails with the "full-service" majors wherein one pax in coach may be paying up to 10 times more than the pax occupying the adjacent seat, both "enjoying" the same "frills" ranging from non-existent to mediocre-at-best).

If there is anything that stands out as obvious in the airline marketplace, it is that pax are picking price over perks. So-called "full-service" with all the trimmings people say they want -- but are not willing to pay for -- are far more costly to provide than one can know until one has worked inside the industry.
 
RJNUT
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Joined: Thu Dec 30, 1999 1:58 am

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 12:46 am

i would love to start a feed for Vangaurd in MCI using new dash 8-400s for cities like OMA DSM SGF..you would need that large of a plane due to lower fares..I think you get away with "prop avoidance" factor when fare is good enough...I am still sold on this airplane evern though it seems dogged with demons
 
Flying-Tiger
Topic Author
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RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 12:46 am

Malaysia: This was announced by ATR on Feb 27th, a contract for two ATR 72-200, no more details.

Jet Netherlands: One Fokker F100 and one Falcon 50, base Amsterdam.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
TechRep
Posts: 1877
Joined: Sun Jan 13, 2002 6:53 am

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 12:49 am

Add this one too:

Air Splendid, Interested in the Grenada Shuttle trying to get financing.

I have no further information on this start up. I posted here about a week ago with any information about this airline, it went unanswered.
 
prosa
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Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2001 3:24 am

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 12:52 am

Has Sep 11th created an opportunity for new airlines? Many large carrier have drastically cut back, both domestic and long-haul services, some have went out of business. Routes have been "freed" up, often because the equipment employed before Sep 11th (B737-200,300,700, F100, A319) is now by far too big an scope clauses limit the use of small regional jets.

Yet it's equally true that as a result of September 11th many people have decided that they never will fly again, at least not for several years. I've heard estimates that as much as 20% of the people in the United States have sworn off flying. Having more available routes and equipment doesn't help very much when the potential customer base has been so drastically diminished.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
Flying-Tiger
Topic Author
Posts: 3923
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 1:56 am

PROSA, I strongly believe that this is not true. You might decide not to fly for maybe two years but then memory starts to fshift to other things, I would rather estimate 5%.

Rjnut, I think that the prop-avoidance factor (if we can call it this way) is even stronger in the 70-seat segment. People can understand when they are in a small turboprop (~30 seats) but not when they are in a 70-seat prop, especially when they have already flown in a RJ. With the new Regional Airlines (Embraer 170-195, FD 728/928) this will get even stronger due to the higher comfort level which will be marketed quite strongly by the airlines. It might not have been possible to predict for Bombardier at the time they launched the Dash 8-Q400 but I don´t think that the D8-400 will pay finally pay off.

TechRep: I tried to find something about them but I came up totally dry. Sorry, otherwise I would have answered.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
prosa
Posts: 5389
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2001 3:24 am

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 4:04 am

PROSA, I strongly believe that this [fear of flying] is not true. You might decide not to fly for maybe two years but then memory starts to shift to other things, I would rather estimate 5%.

I suppose it remains to be seen. According to the latest poll in USAToday, 44% of the American population is "very" or "somewhat" afraid to fly. This percentage was in the teens before September 11th. Obviously, air travel has not fallen off by 44%, but this fear level is still a major concern for the airlines. It's not hard to imagine that high fear levels will make the already-risky task of starting a new airline even more difficult. And as far as the "shifting of memory" is concerned, well, that's undoubtedly true with respect to most traumatic events, but September 11th is something entirely new and different, something that separated all our lives into "before" and "after" phases. It's going to take a long, long time to forget the images of the planes hitting the towers.
Just for the record, I'm not myself worried about flying, in fact I flew ISP-PBI on WN in early October. I suppose I should be afraid as I live and work in the New York area, where fearfulness is at its absolute peak (and air traffic has tanked). But I guess I don't think the same way as most people.



"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
duggan
Posts: 103
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 5:58 pm

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Mon Mar 11, 2002 8:10 pm

Another startup airline rumoured :
SolAir (?) Italy with F/D 728.
They seem to have totally disapeared.
 
keesje
Posts: 8599
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Window Of Opportunity?

Mon Mar 11, 2002 9:03 pm

Tiger, interresting standpoint

However don't forget that not every carrier is weakened, the survivors will rush-in to fill space left open by others (see Belgium , SN).

I think it takes a good network to fill up planes proffitable. Start-ups often have problems with that ..

Perhaps bigger airlines will more then before "outsource" the thinner destinations to regionals / new start-ups.


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